No Honeymoon For Trump
A little more than two months in, Donald Trump's presidency is already unique in a number of ways. One of these that has so far gotten little attention (since there's so much else going on) is Trump's complete lack of a honeymoon period with the public. Trump's job approval polling started out pretty bad and it's only gotten worse. The first few months of a presidency isn't always indicative of how successful any president will wind up, of course, but Trump is truly in a category of his own in the polls so far -- and not in a good way.
On the Real Clear Politics rolling daily average page, Trump started out his term just barely above water, with a job approval average of 44.3 percent and job disapproval at 44.2 percent. But that has so far been the only day this has been true -- from that point on, Trump's disapproval has been above his approval rating. His job approval briefly hit 46.0 percent, but it's been falling steadily since then. Trump is currently almost 10 points below water -- his job approval today hit a new low of 42.1 percent, while his disapproval hit a new high of 52.0 percent.
Historically, this is pretty stunning. Presidents usually get a honeymoon period where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt. Disappointment usually sets in eventually, but it normally takes a while to get there. Trump, though, missed out on his honeymoon altogether.
Barack Obama, at this point in his presidency, was at a whopping 60.8 percent approval, with 30.8 disapproving of the job he was doing. Rather than being 10 points below water, he was 30 points above the waves. That puts him at the higher end of the range for recent presidents. In March of their first year: Bill Clinton was at 54.0 percent approval, George W. Bush was at 56.2, Bush's father was at 59.5, and Ronald Reagan was at 60.0 percent approval. But, as mentioned, early ratings aren't always predictive, since Jimmy Carter beat them all with a 72.3 percent approval rating in March, and Richard Nixon was at an impressive 66.0 percent.
Trump is currently twelve points below the lowest of modern presidential rankings, though. His recent individual poll numbers range from 47 (in a poll taken before the health care bill failed) down to Gallup's 36 percent (taken afterwards). This is remarkable, so early on. Barack Obama's numbers fell to the low 40s several times during his presidency, but he didn't see such bad numbers until October of his second year in office (2011).
Things may be about to get worse for Trump, as well. Most new presidents buoy their numbers up during their honeymoon period by enacting major parts of their agenda. But Trump doesn't seem to be getting much of a honeymoon from Congress, either. After the trainwreck of the Obamacare replacement bill, it's hard to see Republicans getting their act together any time soon on any sort of legislation that gives Trump a boost politically. Next month has a budget deadline, meaning another bruising fight that likely winds up with some sort of continuing resolution -- kicking the can down the road to have the same battle all over again later in the year. The GOP has its sights set on major tax reform next, but that probably won't appear for months, and it's dubious how widely popular it'll be (beyond the millionaire class, who will doubtlessly get most of the benefits).
Of course, it's hard to predict presidential popularity in the future, since anything could happen. Obama got the biggest and sharpest upward bump during in his time in office after announcing the death of Osama Bin Laden (which nobody could have predicted in advance). There are periods where the public rallies around their president, from the aftermath of tragedy to the start of a war. At such times, the public is much more accepting of whomever is in the Oval Office, as a general rule. So Trump could outperform expectations, perhaps in the aftermath of a natural disaster -- although this doesn't always work out for the best (as George W. Bush learned after Hurricane Katrina).
Trump is about to get a big political win, when the Senate confirms his selection for the Supreme Court. This could provide him with a slight boost in the polls, but it'll likely be fleeting. So far, his agenda hasn't proven to be popular beyond the people who voted for him, and that doesn't seem likely to change any time soon. The one agenda item which could have had some crossover appeal is a big infrastructure bill, but Trump seems to have put this item last on his priority list (the White House is already indicating that it probably won't happen until next year). This could gain the support of both Democratic voters and Democrats in Congress, but next year is pretty far out, at this point. The only possible political win in Trump's immediate future is beginning construction of the border wall, but that has a pretty limited appeal with the public (especially those who didn't vote for him).
Trump loves seeing his name in the news, but for the past few weeks, that news has been pretty bad for him all around. Even his signature move of creating a new distraction by making wild statements is beginning to wear pretty thin. The more times he does so, the more he loses support from people who otherwise lean pretty Republican, but who don't have much tolerance for conspiracy theories. He's already beginning to lose their support, although it may return when Trump's Supreme Court pick is confirmed.
Like all presidents, though, Trump likely has a "floor" of around 30-35 percent support from the public, pretty much no matter what he does. Only two modern presidents have ever fallen below 30 percent job approval: George W. Bush and Richard Nixon (right before he resigned). But falling below 40 percent approval usually means a president's agenda runs out of gas. When your job approval is measured in the 30s, it emboldens Congress to pay less attention to you and your agenda, in other words.
Trump's average isn't quite there yet. As I said, Barack Obama had poll numbers as bad as Trump's now are for a good portion of his term. But Obama's daily polling average only dropped below 40 percent for one single day of his entire eight years in office. His hard floor was 40 percent. And he didn't see such lows for almost two years after his honeymoon began. But Trump never had this honeymoon boost to begin with.
Today's Gallup poll is only the beginning of the reaction from the public over the Ryancare disaster in the House. Polls taken in the next week or so will show if this trend is real or not. But without a honeymoon at the start, we're going to find out where Trump's floor is a lot sooner than any other president -- that much seems to be a pretty safe bet, at this point.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
CW: The GOP has its sights set on major tax reform next, but that probably won't appear for months, and it's dubious how widely popular it'll be (beyond the millionaire class, who will doubtlessly get most of the benefits).
You mean you don't think the Trump voters who put him in office had tax reform for corporations and millionaires/billionaires at the top of their wish lists? :)
i believe that donald is malleable. he wants to get stuff done, and doesn't much care about the particulars of what that stuff is. if he can't get it done with republicans, hopefully he'll get it done with democrats. sooner would be better than later.
JL
Polls, schmolls.. :D
Those same polls said that there was a 98% chance that there wouldn't even BE a President Trump.. :D
And the funny thing is, if those exact same polls said that President Trump was doing an awesome job, ya'all would have the EXACT SAME OPINION of polls that I do! :D
Funny, iddn't it? :D
hopefully he'll get it done with democrats. sooner would be better than later.
I would actually LOVE to see that..
Not only because it would actually get things done for this country, but as an added bonus, it would tie the vast majority of Weigantians in knots!! :D
"TRUMP IS EVIL!!! TRUMP IS HITLER!!!! TRUMP IS..... whaaa?? He is working WITH Democrats!!??? errr.. uh... TRUMP IS AWESOME!!!!! TRUMP IS OBAMA!!!!"
It's gonna be a hoot!! :D
And President Trump's Job Approval on the economy is well above water, almost 4 points...
Like I said, polls, schmolls.. You can find/make polls say anything you want.. :D
‘Significant’ investments expected in 3 Ford plants
The automaker plans to invest $9 billion in U.S. facilities through 2019, resulting in 8,500 new or retained jobs, according to the 2015 contract. Besides the $700 million investment at Michigan Assembly for new products — the 2019 Ford Ranger pickup and the all-new Ford Bronco planned for production by 2020 — the contract outlines a $400 million investment planned for Flat Rock for Ford Mustang and Lincoln Continental production, and a $150 million investment at the Romeo Engine plant for engine updates. It is unclear whether Tuesday’s announcements go beyond those plans.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2017/03/27/ford-invest/99709766/
"Way ta go, Mr President!!!"
-Waiter, AIR FORCE ONE
:D
Barack Obama, at this point in his presidency, was at a whopping 60.8 percent approval, with 30.8 disapproving of the job he was doing. Rather than being 10 points below water, he was 30 points above the waves.
Obama was the first black president.. His high numbers were based on that and that alone..
Hardly a valid comparison..
But Obama's daily polling average only dropped below 40 percent for one single day of his entire eight years in office.
And President Trump's daily average has NEVER dropped below 40%...
As I said, Barack Obama had poll numbers as bad as Trump's now are for a good portion of his term.
Yep, yep, yep...
So, if ya'all want to live and die by the polls, Obama had been as BAD a POTUS as President Trump is "for a good portion of his (Obama's) term"...
As I said.. Polls, schmolls... They can be made to sing and dance to whatever tune anyone wants.. :D
hopefully he'll get it done with democrats. sooner would be better than later.
It will be interesting to see if the Democrats are willing to work with President Trump in areas that the Democrats agree with...
Will their hysterical hatred of the President Trump trump them doing what's right for Americans and the country???
I am betting the former but willing to be pleasantly surprised..
It's ALSO going to be fascinating to see the Left Whinery if Democrat Party leaders opt for the latter.. :D
Either way, it's going to be a wild ride.. :D
Note to Donald Trump supporters: Maxine Waters is a bigger patriot than you are.
At least that’s what she thinks.
During a screed on the House floor Monday night, Waters played the race card and the patriotism card against supporters of the president.
http://www.theamericanmirror.com/maxine-waters-questions-patriotism-trump-supporters-house-floor/
Democrats... :roll:
Crap... No smileys in Wordpress :( heh
This is an interesting article about why lying liars tell lies: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/how-the-science-of-blue-lies-may-explain-trumps-support/?hl=1&noRedirect=1
Blue lies are a different category altogether, simultaneously selfish and beneficial to others—but only to those who belong to your group. As University of Toronto psychologist Kang Lee explains, blue lies fall in between generous white lies and selfish “black” ones. “You can tell a blue lie against another group,” he says, which makes it simultaneously selfless and self-serving. “For example, you can lie about your team's cheating in a game, which is antisocial, but helps your team.”
"Blue lies" -- lies the group passes around among it's members to make themselves feel better about whatever heinous thing they're supporting, covering up, etc. Kind of combination of rationalization + denial = "we're not the bad guys the things we do/say/support suggest".
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisladd/2017/03/13/unspeakable-realities-block-universal-health-coverage-in-the-us/#434381fe186a
A really good article about "white socialism" -- how a large proportion of white Americans benefit from "socialistic" policies without being aware of them. Thus they tell themselves "they've earned it" while all those poors and blahs haven't.
By funding government programs with tax credits and deductions rather than spending, we have created an enormous social safety net that grows ever more generous as household incomes rise. It is important to note, though, that you need not be wealthy to participate. All you need to gain access to socialism for white people is a good corporate or government job. That fact helps explain how this welfare system took shape sixty years ago, why it was originally (and still overwhelmingly) white, and why white Rust Belt voters showed far more enthusiasm for Donald Trump than for Bernie Sanders. White voters are not interested in democratic socialism. They want to restore their access to a more generous and dignified program of white socialism.
American wages have been stagnating since the 1970's. Minimum wage should be $21/hour to be equivalent to what it was in the 70's. Minimum wage. Then wages should go up from there. Funnelling all the money to a small percentage of the population creates all sorts of problems that would evaporate if Americans were paid fairly across the board.
This is an interesting article about why lying liars tell lies: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/how-the-science-of-blue-lies-may-explain-trumps-support/?hl=1&noRedirect=1
Blue lies are a different category altogether, simultaneously selfish and beneficial to others—but only to those who belong to your group. As University of Toronto psychologist Kang Lee explains, blue lies fall in between generous white lies and selfish “black” ones. “You can tell a blue lie against another group,” he says, which makes it simultaneously selfless and self-serving. “For example, you can lie about your team's cheating in a game, which is antisocial, but helps your team.”
"Blue lies" -- lies the group passes around among it's members to make themselves feel better about whatever heinous thing they're supporting, covering up, etc. Kind of combination of rationalization + denial = "we're not the bad guys the things we do/say/support suggest".
It would also explain NOT-45's support as well.. :D
Once again, nothing you can throw at the Right that ALSO applies to the Left.. :D
michale [3] -
Tough, isn't it, when even Rasmussen's got him down to only 45% approval?
I seem to remember a few months ago you were predicting Trump would be more popular than Obama. True, Trump hasn't dropped below 40 in RCP's average... yet. But it's still early, give him time...
He's already hit a low in Gallup that Obama never hit, after all.
-CW
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/03/28/the-real-killer-of-trumpcare-was-conservatives-self-deception/
A nice rundown of the different ways conservatives lied about the ACA and how those lies ultimately backfired when they got their big chance to do something.
Perhaps the main way that self-deception hurt the Republicans is more basic. Because they overstated both the badness of Obamacare and the easiness of replacing it, they got lazy when it came to making policy. Serious policy critiques could easily be swatted away as inconsistent with some bit of magical thinking. If you can cover everyone and lower premiums without having mandates or taxes, why bother to wrestle with the real trade-offs inherent in health care policymaking?
Conservatives have many legitimate arguments for why Congress should have taken a different path on health care. But their own eagerness to exaggerate or deceive made it nearly impossible for them to deliver on their promises.
Tough, isn't it, when even Rasmussen's got him down to only 45% approval?
Not really...
I seem to remember a few months ago you were predicting Trump would be more popular than Obama. True, Trump hasn't dropped below 40 in RCP's average... yet. But it's still early, give him time...
Or, once he actually is able to overcome Democrat obstructionism, his popularity may shoot up..
But it's still early. Give him time.. :D
Like I always say.. Polls, Schmolls.. :D
A nice rundown of the different ways conservatives lied about the ACA and how those lies ultimately backfired when they got their big chance to do something.
"If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep your healthcare plan.."
-Barack Obama
When talking about lies vis a vis CrapCare...
THAT is the only lie that matters...
Obama was the first black president.. His high numbers were based on that and that alone..
Really? I remember when 'that and that alone' was cited as reason that no black man could even BE president.
You don't suppose that Bush and his Wall St. cronies dumping the US economy into the shitter just prior to Obama's election had anything to do with it?
I remember that at this point in 2009, the fight was about the newly-minted Bailout, the Budget and the Stimulus, all of which the GOP claimed at the time (and later) were wildly un-popular.
But, you'll probably say, Obama at least had the sycophantic press on his side, right? Wrong.
From Accuracy in Media, a conservative site, dated March 22, 2009 titled NY TIMES TAKES AIM AT OBAMA:
The leading liberal voices of the New York Times editorial pages all criticized—and, in some cases, clobbered—President Obama on Sunday for his handling of the economy and national security.
It’s not unusual for Barack Obama to take a little friendly fire from the Times. But it’s perhaps unprecedented for him to get hit on the same day by columnists Frank Rich, Thomas Friedman and Maureen Dowd—and in the paper’s lead editorial. Their critique punctuated a weekend that started with a widely circulated blog post by Paul Krugman that said the president’s yet to be announced bank rescue plan would almost certainly fail.
Revisionist history, meet internet memory.
Frankly I'm surprised you all are putting so much faith in the poll. Considering how totally and devastatingly wrong they were.
On the other hand they are saying what you want to hear so......
M- 6...
Unless you have a Zapulator that sent Trump back in time, you are once again wrong about trump having anything to do with this.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20151106/OEM01/151109855/ford-and-uaw-reach-tentative-contract-agreement
The credit belongs solely with the UAW and Ford... no political folks involved.
[21] goode trickle: Trumpers will pass along any lie that they hear and like the sound of told by their lying-liar-leaders.
Paula [11, 12, 15]
Thanks for all your interesting links.
Some people just can't handle the truth and occupy reality. :)
[22] Kick: you're welcome!
GT,
Unless you have a Zapulator that sent Trump back in time, you are once again wrong about trump having anything to do with this.
Of course President Trump didn't have anything to do with it..
Now, run along and play with your Obama doll.. :^/
Really? I remember when 'that and that alone' was cited as reason that no black man could even BE president.
Yea.. That was back when the Democrat Party was the Party of the KKK..
What's yer point??
You don't suppose that Bush and his Wall St. cronies dumping the US economy into the shitter just prior to Obama's election had anything to do with it?
I am sure it contributed a little..
But, with Democrats, everything is about race... So, logically, the first black man as President....... It would be impossible for Obama NOT to have high marks at the start..
The fact that the promise of Obama plummeted so bad shows that patriotic Americans finally got wise...
From Accuracy in Media, a conservative site, dated March 22, 2009 titled NY TIMES TAKES AIM AT OBAMA:
You have ONE article, an OPINION and you want to call that PROOF!?? :D
WaPoop sometimes has an opinion that is in keeping with patriotic Americans.. Even HuffPoop will have an opinion piece that is in line with patriotic Americans..
To try and claim that ONE article totally defines reality??
Ridiculous.. Completely and utterly ridiculous...
Obama's sky high approval rating at the start was SOLELY because he was the first black president..
Period..
Veronica,
Some people just can't handle the truth
And THERE is your entire problem..
You are ONLY concerned with TRUTH and ignore the concept of FACTS...
Truth is subjective and is dependent on so many variables.. For example, there are many MANY Left Whiners whose "truth" is that NOT-45 won the election..
THAT is their "truth" and they will defend their "truth" to the death...
"THEIR TRUTH IS NOT YOUR TRUTH!!"
-Oracle Of Yonada
FACTS, on the other hand, are incontrovertible and not subject to the whims of Party slavery...
Anyone who ignores FACTS in the favor of TRUTH is nothing but a fanatic. A zealot whose positions must be taken with a HUGE grain of salt..
Rather an apropos description of many Weigantians here.. :D
Michael Moore ? @MMFlint
Historians in the near future will mark today, March 28, 2017, as the day the extinction of human life on earth began, thanks 2 Donald Trump
2:55 PM - 28 Mar 2017
6,704 6,704 Retweets 14,204 14,204 likes
Well, I am certainly glad the Left Whinery doesn't engage in fear mongering.. :^/
Which begs the question of Michael Moore..
If all of human life is extinct...
How will the historians "mark" the day?? And who will be there to observe this marking???
"DOOOOOYYYYYYYYYY"
-Vanillapee Von Schweet, WRECK IT RALPH
:D
michale [26]
Rather an apropos description of many Weigantians here.. :D
OMG! It's a new day, your brain is a blank slate, totally wiped clean, and you're ready to start anew, right? Pay no attention to anything that's been covered ad nauseam, go right back to the same monotonous shit as though it's a new thought and spend the majority of your time discussing posters versus actual political issues. *yawn*
You don't do yourself any favors at all by giving a lecture on reality, repeating your same old lame nonsensical lie about the election, and prattling on and on about ignoring "the concept of FACTS" while totally addressing your post WRONG!
*LOL* :)
OMG! It's a new day, your brain is a blank slate, totally wiped clean, and you're ready to start anew, right? Pay no attention to anything that's been covered ad nauseam, go right back to the same monotonous shit as though it's a new thought and spend the majority of your time discussing posters versus actual political issues. *yawn*
Nothing you have "covered" in the past is relevant...
You don't do yourself any favors at all by giving a lecture on reality, repeating your same old lame nonsensical lie about the election, and prattling on and on about ignoring "the concept of FACTS" while totally addressing your post WRONG!
I understand that THAT is your opinion..
But it's the opinion of someone who has PROVEN they are governed by Party bigotry and Party bigotry only..
As such, it's relevance is.... not.. :D
Michale wrote:
"Or, once he actually is able to overcome Democrat obstructionism, his popularity may shoot up."
EXCEPT, the problem REALLY hasn't been Democratic obstructionism so far, since there really hasn't been much TO obstruct Yet. It's been Republican obstructionism yet again that's been the problem. Specifically, the Republican Freedom Caucus getting in the way of their own party being able to pass anything in the House legislatively so far, or that is even remotely acceptable to Republicans in the Senate. Even Trump pretty much said so himself in one of his many tweets.
Of course President Trump didn't have anything to do with it..
Glad to see that we can agree that Trump had nothing to do with it...Despite your assertion otherwise.
Now, run along and play with your Obama doll.. :^/
That's all you've got? Dag Nab it you really got me... I am going to go cower in a corner all day and rock back and fourth repeating " why won't the bad republican just go away...Why? "....
Dude, you really need to shake the sand from Trump beach out of your mangina, you are making pearls again....'sides I hear it is a toxic place since Trump helped the middle class by rescinding the clean water act.
michale [30]
Nothing you have "covered" in the past is relevant...
Congratulations, Michale! In your ridiculous flailing, you've just admitted your irrelevance. :)
I understand that THAT is your opinion..
No, it's not my "opinion" that you addressed your post wrong, it's an obvious FACT that you overlooked in your haste to give a lecture regarding FACTS. *LOL* No one here is named "Veronica," oh irrelevant one. That is a FACT.
You're not doing yourself any favors posting a lecture about FACTS to "Veronica" or anyone else when you can't get your own shit in order.
Not only are you not "upping" your game; you're sinking fast into the pit of despair and merely mumbling to yourself... because everyone else will cease to listen if you keep wallowing in a ditch of alternative facts like a pig in mud. :)
michale [28]
Which begs the question of Michael Moore..
If all of human life is extinct...
How will the historians "mark" the day?? And who will be there to observe this marking???
You must really enjoy looking stupid, eh?
He said historians will mark it as the day extinction of humans BEGAN. Scientists are able to tell when a species is going extinct and can estimate the year that extinction will occur unless what is causing the species to perish is stopped or curtailed.
https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/tiger
Homo sapiens could indeed begin to go extinct and become endangered while studying the event at the same time.
Your ignorance regarding this subject and your inability to understand basic science does indeed make "Michael" look like a fool, but it's the Michael you see in the mirror and NOT Michael Moore. :)
Kick [34], michale [28] -
It was a cheap attempt at humor. I have to admit in all fairness, I did get a laugh out of reading michale's original comment. It was funny, in a reductio ad absurdum kind of way. Like Robin Williams as Mork: "Why do they call it rush hour when nobody moves?"
However, having said that, Kick's right. Michale overlooked one key word: "near". As in "the near future" where the extinction has begun but is not yet complete. When there will still be humans around to comment on it.
So, comedically, michale got a laugh out of me (small one), but he wasn't actually correct. I mean, he even set himself up by posting the whole Moore quote -- if he really wanted to be sneaky, he would have edited that "near" out...
In a similar vein, hope everyone's having a great April Fool's Day...
-CW