A Big To-Do List For Congress
Congress has returned to Washington after a monthlong vacation, and they've got their work cut out for them in September. Deadlines at the end of the month loom, and the consequences of inaction are very real, from a default on the United States' debt to a government shutdown. Which means Congress is going to have one of those rare months where they have to actually get some stuff done. But the best guess of how it will all play out is that Congress will engage in a whole lot of kicking the cans down the road rather than fundamentally solving any big problems.
That may be too cynical, since a few things will more than likely be achieved this month. Disaster relief funding, for example, will likely pass in short order. But Congress faces so many large and contentious issues that it's almost guaranteed that on the big items -- the federal budget, for instance -- all they'll manage to agree to is giving themselves more time to bicker. And that's before even considering the large items which don't have a built-in deadline at the end of the month -- like tax reform.
So here is a rundown of all the things Congress will be busy doing (or not doing, or punting altogether) during September, as well as my best guess as to what the most likely outcome will be.
Hurricane Disaster Relief
I listed this one first, because it's got the best chance of passing, really. Today, the House is supposed to vote on an initial Hurricane Harvey relief bill. The Senate will soon follow suit in some fashion or another. This will be a small down-payment towards relief funding, as everyone expects the totals to run into the tens (if not hundreds) of billions of dollars in the end. Depending on how the Senate acts on the debt ceiling (see next item), this could be delayed enough for another bill to become necessary -- Hurricane Irma relief funding. If Florida or the East Coast get hit hard, then the relief for the two hurricanes might have to be joined in a single piece of legislation.
Most likely outcome -- Some sort of initial hurricane relief bill will pass and be signed into law before the end of the month. The major relief bills (supplementing this initial down-payment) will take months, though, because more money will be at stake and the sense of urgency will lessen over time.
Raising the debt ceiling
The White House has already weighed in on this one, in detail. Initially they had called for a standalone, clean debt ceiling hike, but now they have seen the wisdom of attaching this bill to the hurricane relief bill. This makes it a lot easier for Republicans to vote for, the thinking goes. The main opponents of both the debt ceiling hike and tying the bill to the disaster relief effort are the hardliner Tea Party faction within the Republican Party. They want to use the debt ceiling to bargain for budget-cutting. They're consistent in this stance; it's what they've always believed. But while Republican leaders occasionally are content to use such brinksmanship with the budget itself (leading to government shutdowns), the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling are a lot greater and a lot more dangerous. So Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell will likely work with Democrats and mainstream Republicans to attach the two bills together and get the resulting legislation onto Trump's desk by the end of the month. The question, though, is how big a hike they'll approve.
Most likely outcome -- Debt ceiling hike will be successfully attached to the hurricane relief bills, and pass both houses. Tea Partiers will vote against it, but there will be enough Democratic votes to put it over the top. However, Republicans may push for a very short-term hike, carrying the federal government only until December (or possibly next spring), when they'll have to have the fight all over again. It'd be better for Republicans if they pushed the next debt ceiling hike all the way past the midterm elections, but they may not take this easy way out.
Passing a 2018 federal budget
This wasn't supposed to turn out this way. Republicans took over Congress, swearing up and down they would pass a budget the old-fashioned way, as they were supposed to. They'd spend months hashing out all of the dozen appropriations bills in committees, and then by now these bills would all be ready for floor votes, to show America that a Republican Congress was capable of passing a budget on time. Virtually none of that has come to pass, though. Instead, Congress wasted all of its time and energy on the disastrous failure of "repeal and replace Obamacare," and the individual budget bills just didn't get done. So now they are in the same position they used to deride Democrats for being in -- having to pass either an "omnibus" bill rolling the whole budget together, or having to pass a "continuing resolution" that just puts the budget on autopilot. If Congress does not act, the government will shut down on the first of October.
Most likely outcome -- A continuing resolution will be hobbled together and pass, at (or just after) the last minute. There will be plenty of grandstanding by Tea Partiers leading up to this, which will make it plain to all that the Republican Party can't agree among itself enough to pass a real budget -- at least, not without Democratic help. But getting Democratic votes is going to mean jettisoning all the contentious Republican agenda items they want to pass. This will lead to a fairly "clean" continuing resolution, with no funds for Trump's border wall. The only real question is how far down the road they'll kick this can, but the smart bet is "sometime in December," at this point. When we'll have the whole debate over again, just in time for the holidays.
Reauthorizing federal programs
These are fairly minor when compared to the rest of the budget, but there are several federal programs which must be reauthorized before month's end. This includes the Federal Aviation Administration, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and the National Flood Insurance Program. All of these have their own political divides associated with them (for example, the House has already indicated it wants to privatize the F.A.A.). There are also other programs that could get added to this list, such as changing the funding of the Obamacare insurance subsidies so that Congress directs the money rather than the White House, as well as other minor Obamacare fixes. The problem with all these issues is that there simply isn't going to be enough time or attention available to have contentious fights over such minor programs (taken as a fraction of the entire federal budget).
Most likely outcome -- Reauthorization will happen for the F.A.A., CHIP, and the N.F.I.P. with no major changes to any of the programs. The Obamacare fixes, however, may not make this list, since they have a different level of political contentiousness. All of these fixes will most likely get rolled into the final budget continuing resolution bill.
Tax reform
This brings us to the two agenda items that don't have a deadline at the end of the month, and so are going to be optional (at best). The first is Trump's big push to reform the tax system. Trump is currently selling this idea hard (he's giving a speech on it as I type this), which is really the first time he's used his bully pulpit to push for major legislation (he certainly didn't do any of this during the fight over repeal-and-replace). Now, "fundamental revenue-neutral tax reform" has (surprise, surprise) already morphed into "let's just cut a bunch of taxes on rich people," so a complete redesign of the system is probably not going to happen. The problem with this is that it will blow an enormous hole in the deficit over the next decade, but that's never stopped Republicans from voting for a tax cut previously, so it likely won't this time either. But it's doubtful that tax reform (or just tax cuts) will be debated any time soon, since Congress has so much else to do, all with hard deadlines attached.
Most likely outcome -- Won't even be debated in September. Since the budget (and possibly the debt ceiling) will be pushed back to December, this means there will be little time or energy to debate tax cuts for the rest of the year. A bill may make it out of committee and even be voted on by one house or the other, but no final bill will exist by the end of the year. However, this may be first on the agenda when Congress returns in 2018, so long-term prospects look better than seeing it pass this year, especially given the big push from Trump on the issue.
Saving DACA
The final agenda item was added yesterday by the Trump administration. The "dreamers" covered by DACA now have a six-month ticking clock hanging over their heads. If Congress doesn't act within that time period, DACA could disappear.
Most likely outcome -- Again, this won't even be formally debated in September. There is too much else to do, and with deadlines looming at the end of the month, a six-month deadline will have to take a back seat. Knowing Congress, the safe money would have to be on "doing nothing until the DACA cutoff deadline looms, and then trying to fix it all at the last minute." So perhaps by spring, if at all. But certainly not in the next few weeks.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
It's not very often I can give Trump props, but hiring McMaster, staying out of the way of the Hurricane Harvey mess during his first visit, and now striking a deal with "Chuck and Nancy" and working with Democrats on some issues (which in my opinion he should have done from Day 1), he might be finally wising up...
Until tonight when Trump tweets or tomorrow when "Chuck and Nancy" will probably change their mind while Republicans whine shamelessly, and then the whole "deal" falls apart.
It's crazy... and here comes Irma with a forecast at the present time headed straight for Mar-a-Lago. Divestiture might prove to have been the more profitable route. Karma can be such a witch, and... bonus... now Trump can "donate" his $1 million personal funds to himself and claim he aided in the hurricane cleanup efforts. No conflict there. ;)
Note:
Obviously, this was written before the deal between Trump and the Dems was announced. Sometimes events happen while I'm writing, which make the whole article almost obselete when published. Sigh...
-CW
Saving DACA
The final agenda item was added yesterday by the Trump administration and then quickly removed by Alt-Orange himself. The "dreamers" covered by DACA now have a six-month ticking clock hanging over their heads, but if Congress doesn't act within that time period, the Orange One says he'll revisit.
Most likely outcome -- Republicans in Congress will not touch DACA with a ten foot pole since the Big Dummy has taken full ownership.
CW
3
Obviously, this was written before the deal between Trump and the Dems was announced. Sometimes events happen while I'm writing, which make the whole article almost obselete when published. Sigh...
I could tell, but I'm guessing it'll still be relevant when Trump tweets tomorrow at the crack of dawn and the whole "Chuck and Nancy" deal goes down in flames. Or maybe he'll be too busy twacking Irma to tweet. ;)
JFC
5
Most likely outcome -- Republicans in Congress will not touch DACA with a ten foot pole since the Big Dummy has taken full ownership.
All that policy nuance undone by a little tweet because the "Big Dummy" couldn't handle a little criticism... and likely to happen again tomorrow because Breitbart is pissed and poor Paul Ryan is accusing Democrats of "playing politics with the debt ceiling." Hypocrite much? :)
Michale
227 (moved forward from Friday Talking Points)
There is post after post of your "delusional bullshit." That one should be okay, right? Since you used it against Neil. You're "whining" like a "malcontent." Those should be okay, right? Since you used them against Balthasar and the group in general. It's kind of obvious what you're doing here. As I stated before, both of the times you have left "whining" was because you got your feelings hurt about something JL posted. Boo hoo.
Now fast forward to the FTP, and it's obvious that you want to continue "whining" some more and place more blame and cry "victim." Obviously, you're "embarrassing yerself" so "quit your whining." Those are nuggets you used in the same http://FTP... so those should be okay to use also, right?
FACT
You're still "whining" about the content of my posts in the same manner you were the day you left "whining." This time you're whining that I began name calling in a post of mine while being seemingly oblivious to your own handiwork. You often say that you "only personally attack people AFTER they have personally attacked" you. This is your "delusional bullshit"... the term you used with Neil when you responded to his attack on your Orange Idol BLOTUS.
Shall I demonstrate this FACT? Oh, yes... I shall.
*31 If President Trump can't do ANYTHING right by ya'all... Maybe the problem is not him...
*37 And Nancy Pelosi, of all people, is the ONLY Democrat who has condemned antifa terrorists and terrorism... Of course, NO ONE wants to talk about that.. No, they are just to darn busy getting their hate on over President Trump.... It's all a hysterical HATE TRUMP bubble....
*40 And, since the Left Wingery has established that SILENCE (indeed) GIVES ASSENT the ONLY conclusion that one can come up with is that the entirety of the Left Wingery (sans Pelosi) supports and condones the antifa terrorists...
And everybody here whined because Michale posted that no one here condemned the group antifa and that this therefore means they condone terrorists. Oh, wait... no, they didn't. EM responded nicely that reasonable Democrats everywhere would agree.
*50 To which Michale responds: Yet it's not even mentioned.. I guess it's more important to hate on Trump than to look in the mirror..
And everybody whined for being criticized for what they didn't post to please Michale while he was off whining and for being called haters again. Oh, wait... no, they didn't.
Fast forward:
* Posted a fake quote that accused Neil of having PTDS -- President Trump Derangement Syndrome.
* Told Neil that if Neil didn't agree with his opinion of Hillary that Neil was delusional.
* Accused the group of whining and complaining... to which EM responded that was "juvenile, Michale".
*124 Balthasar called Michale "Ghandi" and referred to Trump's "army of detestables" *LOL* great post too. :)
* In answer to the question, "not sarcastic enough?" by Balthasar, Don responded: "No, it's not. He is risen!" *LOL* another good one.
*132 Then Michale accused Balthasar of whining because "You lost, Balthasar.. Quit whining about it.."
*137 So Michale tells Neil in response to Neil's opinion about who the obstructionists in Congress were: "No, you didn't 'fix' it for me. You fixed it for YOU, to continue propagating your delusional bullshit."
*146 Michale tells Neil "we have your biased opinion" or "the FACTS," wherein he lists the standard drivel and uses the same standard straw man argument about the election... you know the one... where he was right about the election so that means he's right about every nonsensical piece of utter drivel or fabricated thing he posts.
Skipping forward:
*161 Don Harris wrote: Last Friday's talking points without Michale- 48 comments. This Friday's talking points with Michale- 158 comments and counting. Sad and juvenile seems to be what people want.
*169 Michale tells Neil he is "embarrassing yerself"
" for moving the goalposts...
*170 In response to Don's post about counts, Michale posts: Funny how the normal malcontents weren't around when I wasn't..
*183 Balthasar then nails it with: Do you see a trend here? I do. When Michale answers, every horrible act of Trump's is justified by some imagined horrible, or very Democratic, act done by Obama, or Hillary, or Democrats, in that order of preference. Balthasar also goes on to say: So we can carry on all day, and the answer will be the same - Obama did something, or Democrats did something that DEMANDS that Trump do the opposite. Everything's to blame on Obama (except the economy, of course). It's dull-witted, but easy to remember.
After reading all the comments on the page in succession, I then respond to Don's post saying he should remove the repetitive lies and drivel from his comments count and then post the numbers... and winked.
**********
So to recap:
Michale wishes to exist on the board using whatever words he wishes about the group and individuals:
"Ya'all" are
* the problem
* haters
* hysterical haters
* it's all a hysterical HATE TRUMP bubble
* support and condone the antifa terrorists
* PTDS -- President Trump Derangement Syndrome
* delusional
* whining
* delusional bullshit
* we have your biased opinion
* embarrassing yerself
and drumroll .................
* malcontents
And after 160+ posts of this back-and-forth with different posters using all kinds of choice words, "Captain Obvious" (thank you, TS) insists that it was me to blame for starting "the personal attacks and name-calling."
**********
REPEAT: Like my mother always says: "Don't dish it out unless you can take it." Wise words to live by. :)
**********
p.s. Yes, Michale, I am up on current events; my comment where I said "here's hoping you and/or your friends aren't in the path of a hurricane any time soon" was sarcasm because I know what's headed your way. I waded through foot after foot of Hurricane Harvey water/goop in a green boat we named "TANK" and ferried people and pets back and forth to dry land (only got bit once). My advice is to get the heck out of Florida if/when necessary if Irma tracks anywhere near you... and good luck. :)
Hoping this doesn't get caught in the filter again.
Kick,
There are many remedies for obsession.
EM
9
How awesome, Elizabeth! :)
Kick,
I love your responses to Michale... They make me smile! :D
-R
Liz,
There are many remedies for obsession.
Awwww let Victoria obsess and spend hours and hours pulling up out of context comments I make and try to make them say something they don't..
Those of lesser minds fall into her BS because they have no independent thoughts of their own...
What she doesn't realize is that, by pulling everything forward, she is making every commentary about me, despite her claims to the contrary..
I'll just continue to ignore her claims and continue to watch her scramble and flail around for attention because it's only her personal attacks on me that makes her relevant and have any meaning around here.. :D
CW-3
I just got back from from several days in the wild with zero connection to the outside world save a GPS! Is there a political reset button in the Oval Office? Did Trump hit it by accident....maybe it's next to the KFC button or the Diet Coke button?
Republicans must be at lesst thinking about a cabinet coup. Donald
Trump has handed over the keys to the castle.
I'll just continue to ignore her claims and continue to watch her scramble and flail around for attention because it's only her personal attacks on me that makes her relevant and have any meaning around here.. :D
Excellent! I knew you could do it.
Excellent! I knew you could do it.
It's easy once you discover the trick.. :D
LWYH
11
Russ,
I love your responses to Michale... They make me smile! :D
You're certainly welcome, Russ, and as I am sure you are acutely aware... those responses are not remotely for him. *LOL* :)
Now, hopefully, we can all get back to discussing the issues which is why most of us are here, after all.
TS
13
I just got back from from several days in the wild with zero connection to the outside world save a GPS! Is there a political reset button in the Oval Office? Did Trump hit it by accident....maybe it's next to the KFC button or the Diet Coke button?
I know, right? What happened to the Trump who threatened to shut down the government over funding for that Wall that he's insisted for two years that Mexico was going to pay for? I think maybe the Trump humanity button just got pushed by Hurricane Harvey. The tag team of Harvey and Irma... with little Jose bringing up the rear... may well just knock some sense into him yet.
Could this possibly have lasting effects? I doubt it... because fall is approaching and winter is coming. :)
Now, hopefully, we can all get back to discussing the issues which is why most of us are here, after all.
Yep.. SO what you think about President Trump and Democrat Leadership cozying up??
That is so Trump!!! :D
And the GOP reactions to it!?? Priceless!!!
I'm lovin' it!!!! :D
Michale IS Ghandi AND he is turning the other cheek like that mythical guy. :D
"BumbleBee Tuna.... BumbleBee Tuna.... BumbleBee Tuna.... BumbleBee Tuna..."
-Jim Carrey, ACE VENTURA II
:D
Kick - 18
"What happened to the Trump who threatened to shut down the government over funding for that Wall that he's insisted for two years that Mexico was going to pay for?"
Same Trump, ill-prepared, befuddled, unstable, and completely untrustworthy.
This is exactly what his supporters wanted - shake up Washington, pull down the Temple, it's gonna be fun. That's like confusing demolition with house cleaning but the Republican Party and slightly less than half the electorate drank the Kool Aid.
Get safe Michale. Incoming.
TS
22
Same Trump, ill-prepared, befuddled, unstable, and completely untrustworthy.
Yes, sir... 100%... I would add "deceiving."
That's like confusing demolition with house cleaning but the Republican Party and slightly less than half the electorate drank the Kool Aid.
Das kind mit dem bade ausschütten...
Or as we like to say in the South, throwing out the baby with the bathwater. We do love a good idiom in the South. ;)
Neil,
Get safe Michale. Incoming.
Way ahead of ya... :D We have the beer and the alcohol and the coolers all packed up...
RIDERS ON THE STORM
:D
Trump's tweet's are oddly nice today. Not cranky...no insults. Did somebody adjust his meds? Has the real Donald been replaced by a changling? Are tweets being ghost written by English majors? Was Trump visited by three spirits last night?
The Base is not going to like this one little bit.
Trump's tweet's are oddly nice today. Not cranky...no insults. Did somebody adjust his meds? Has the real Donald been replaced by a changling? Are tweets being ghost written by English majors? Was Trump visited by three spirits last night?
The Base is not going to like this one little bit.
Yep.. The Democrat base is going to be all atizzy that President Trump refuses to act like Satan Incarnate...
Funny.. :D
Trump is even making deals with Democrats!! How will the Democrat Party base react to THAT!?? :D
TS
26
Was Trump visited by three spirits last night?
Are you perhaps confusing Donald and Scrooge McDuck?
It happens.
Who Said It: Donald Trump Or Scrooge McDuck?
1. I will build you one of the great ballrooms of the world!
2. The point is that you can't be too greedy.
3. Show me someone without an ego, and I'll show you a loser.
4. I'm not doing that to brag, because you know what? I don’t have to brag.
5. I'm not a schmuck. Even if the world goes to hell in a handbasket, I won't lose a penny.
Kick [28]
Who said it?
Trump: 1,3,4,5
McDuck: 2
LWYH
29
Not bad at all. You only missed one of them. :)
https://www.forbes.com/quotes/2204/
Kick - 28
What the Dickens? I was thinking of the original Scrooge.....or maybe the cartoon musical version which is pretty faithful to the original.
Don Harris [4] -
That does actually make me feel better! Thanks!
:-)
I hate it when events overtake the writing/editing/publishing process...
Kick [6] -
Actually, the Senate voted on it before I'd even decided what to say about it today (Thurs). Paul-n-Mitch want this off their plate as soon as humanly possible. May be on Trump's desk by the weekend... lighting speed, for Congress...
TheStig [13] -
Even those of us who were paying attention and connected have no idea what's going on. So join the party. I've never seen such a massive delayed DC reaction as the last 48 hours, personally... bizarre.
We're through the looking glass now, Alice...
Michale [19] -
OK, I'll bite. Please expand on this comment. What is your personal reaction to the Trump/Dem deal? Everyone else (myself included) is too stunned to even react, right now, so I'm wondering how you reacted, and why. You used to call yourself an independent, so I'd be interested in hearing your reasoning. At this point, nobody else has any reasoning, since we're all scratching our heads...
Oh, and hope you and yours keep safe the next few days, with Irma...
Kick [24] -
Das kind mit dem bade ausschütten...
Or as we like to say in the South, throwing out the baby with the bathwater. We do love a good idiom in the South. ;)
I once heard James Carville (or maybe it was Terry Bradshaw, sometimes it's hard to tell the difference...) once use the following:
"It's like an alligator with a chainsaw. You're probably sure he doesn't know how to work it, but you don't want to get close enough to find out."
I have no idea what political point he was making. But the metaphor sure stuck with me, that's for sure!
TheStig [26] -
And (gasp!) Nancy Pelosi even got him to tweet what she wanted! What the @#$! is going on?!?
Heh.
Kick [28] -
McDuck 1,2
Trump 3,4,5?
Oh, wait, [30] -- they're all Trump?
The absence of the word "porpoising" should have given it away. Isn't that what McDuck used to love to do in his vault of gold coins?
Heh.
:-)
-CW
TS
31
What the Dickens?
You little dickens; I see what you did there. :)
I was thinking of the original Scrooge.....or maybe the cartoon musical version which is pretty faithful to the original.
I can't help it, though. You were talking about Trump getting visited by three spirits, and I naturally thought of Donald and Scrooge McDuck... how they are so much alike... almost the same age too... only Scrooge is an elderly Scottish-American who was famous decades before anyone ever heard of Donald Drumpf, and that duck didn't inherit multiple millions from his daddy and pretend to be a self-made "man," he actually made his fortune by earning it.
Cite? *LOL*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-6lvu8GgtY
CW
32
I once heard James Carville (or maybe it was Terry Bradshaw, sometimes it's hard to tell the difference...) once use the following:
"It's like an alligator with a chainsaw. You're probably sure he doesn't know how to work it, but you don't want to get close enough to find out."
I have no idea what political point he was making. But the metaphor sure stuck with me, that's for sure!
Carville! The ragin' cajun. He drives a lot of people crazy, but I love his colorful language. I remember reading that nugget of Carville's in this guy's blog of which I'm a regular reader (you might know him):
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/08/26/marijuana-donor-dollars/
Fourth box from the top. :)
Oh, wait, [30] -- they're all Trump?
All Trump. Sad. Particularly the one where he says: "Even if the world goes to hell in a handbasket, I won't lose a penny." That's Trump in a nutshell... believe him.
The absence of the word "porpoising" should have given it away. Isn't that what McDuck used to love to do in his vault of gold coins?
Yep. Donald steals a lot of Scrooge's great lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-IPu8fk6DY
Donald is literally Scrooge McDuck... a human cartoon character. :)