For the second time in two weeks, President Donald Trump may have cut a deal with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, this time on protecting the DACA "dreamers." That isn't a definitive statement because, at this point, nobody's really even sure if a deal was actually agreed to, or what exactly will be in any such a deal. Trump is sending out some very mixed messages, perhaps in reaction to his base already condemning the idea as "amnesty." But the fact remains that Trump once again reached out to the Democratic congressional leaders, inviting them over to dinner to hammer out some sort of path forward on major legislation. Notable in their absence in this meeting were any Republican congressional leaders.

All of this adds up to a very muddled situation. Is Trump dealing with Democrats to the exclusion of Republicans? Perhaps, but then again perhaps nothing concrete will come of the negotiation. Has Trump agreed to put aside demands for money for his border wall in these negotiations? It sure sounds like it, but he could always change his mind. Will Trump's base revolt against the deal and turn against him? Well, a quick look at the pages of Breitbart already shows signs of this happening, but it remains to be seen whether this is a temporary thing or not. If Trump sells the idea, they may decide to continue to support him in the end. Or not. As I said, it's a very muddled situation right now.

Pelosi and Schumer certainly seemed to get everything they wanted, at least from the first reports of what happened last night at the White House. They told Trump that Democrats would not, under any circumstances, vote for any bill with border wall funding in it. They apparently convinced Trump to have the fight for his beloved wall in later legislation (the budget, most likely). Pelosi and Schumer did agree that Trump and the Republicans could add some border security money, as long as it doesn't pay for the wall. This seemed to be agreeable to Trump, but since Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell weren't part of the meeting, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough for congressional Republicans. The final ask from the Democrats was that any deal will have to essentially resurrect the DREAM Act, meaning an eventual pathway to citizenship for those affected has to be included. This is the murkiest sticking point so far, since neither Trump nor the Democrats have said precisely what was agreed upon in this regard.

What is pretty obvious is that this won't happen anywhere near as quickly as the first deal Trump cut with "Chuck and Nancy." That moved extraordinarily fast through Congress, due to the emergency nature of the hurricane relief money. Any DACA or DREAM Act deal is going to take -- at the absolute minimum -- a couple of weeks to hammer out and pass. But it really shouldn't be too hard to put together, since the DREAM Act draft has been around for a long time and additional border security was dealt with in the "Gang of Eight" proposal a few years back. This means the legislative language already exists, so it will only be a matter of cutting and pasting to draft a new bill, with perhaps a few tweaks here and there to satisfy Republicans on the border security part.

Since it is far too early to know whether this effort is going to be successful, it is impossible to proclaim that this is somehow the "new normal" -- Trump cutting deals willy-nilly with Chuck and Nancy to get things done, rather than endlessly watch congressional Republicans fight with each other. It is tempting to make such proclamations, but it is incredibly premature to do so. Democrats (obviously) would love it if Trump begins to support their agenda wholeheartedly, but so far the two deals only happened when Trump badly wanted hurricane relief to pass quickly, and on an issue that Trump has apparently wrestled with in a personal way (hence his evolution in the way he talks about the DACA population, from the campaign trail to now). Just because Trump wants two things that Democrats were able to work with him on doesn't mean he's going to work with them on everything -- or even most things. These may be two very special cases, and not some longterm trend, in other words.

The people who are really enthused about Trump's new willingness to cut deals are the moderate congressional Republicans. They've been the most frustrated by their own party's Tea Party wing, because the moderates know that saying no to everything means nothing at all gets done. Rather than move the GOP agenda along step by step, they've seen endless battles over purity, resulting in no steps taken at all. The moderates know that they'll be in the driver's seat if the Democrats and Trump form some strange coalition, because Democrats alone can't pass anything in a Republican Congress. They'll need the GOP moderates' votes to win, meaning the moderates will be able to leverage this power into getting concessions towards their own agenda.

But again, it is far too early to know if any of this will spill over into, say, the budget negotiations at the end of the year. Or tax reform, for that matter. It's even too early to know whether Trump and the Democrats can successfully make their DACA deal a reality. At some point, either Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell (or both) might balk at being left so far out in the cold by Trump. Ryan and McConnell ultimately control what legislation gets a floor vote, and at some point they might just put their foot down and refuse to move on a Trump-Pelosi-Schumer deal. Especially if they think that the Republican base -- including a major amount of Trump's own supporters -- agree with them rather than the president.

So now should be a time for cautious optimism from Democrats, at best. There are many hurdles to clear before the deal announced last night becomes legislative reality. There is no guarantee of success, the way there was with the first deal (when Ryan and McConnell expressly agreed to bring the bill to a vote as quickly as possible). And even if a new DREAM Act does pass within the next few months, there is no way of knowing if Trump will be open to further deals or not. The reaction to this one may make him twice shy, if his base truly does revolt against him.

The smartest thing for Pelosi and Schumer to do now would be to move as fast as they can. Draft a bill, meet with Trump again and get him to buy into it (or slightly amend it, if necessary), and then present it as a fait accompli to Ryan and McConnell. Allow Trump to bask in the knowledge that he didn't, in the end, throw the DACA folks under the bus, and furthermore that he got a bipartisan deal through Congress that eluded even Barack Obama. For Trump, that's a win. But it's also a win for Democrats, because they will have successfully saved the DACA population from facing deportation in a few months. And, all politics aside, that is the real objective here. Whether or not this means some sort of new political normal isn't, at least not right now.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant