Texas is perpetually, for Democrats, the one that got away. It's the pretty girl that wouldn't go out on a date with you in high school. It's the dream car of your youth you could never afford. It's the perfect job you applied for but didn't get. Democratic dreams of winning Texas are like a fourth-place Olympian's dreams of being on the podium -- so close, and yet so far. It's the impossible dream, but Democrats keep right on dreaming it anyway.

Of course, usually these frenetic dreams only happen once every four years. Democrats would absolutely love to add Texas to their column in a presidential race, because due to its sheer size (in population), it would be the biggest prize imaginable to steal from the other side. With its 38 Electoral College votes, Texas is a big bonanza that is getting bigger all the time. In the last redistricting Texas picked up a whopping four House seats -- far more than any other state. They may add even more in 2020 -- perhaps even at the expense of California (California didn't add any House seats last time around, for the first time since World War II). People are flocking to Texas, which raises the electoral stakes.

Consider that if you added the 38 Texas Electoral College votes to those of the three biggest and most reliably Democratic states (California -- 55, New York -- 29, and Illinois -- 20), you'd wind up with 142 Electoral College votes -- from just four states. That is over half the 270 it takes to win. Which is why Democrats long to add Texas to their column, because it would give them an overwhelming advantage in the presidential contest.

Democrats' dreams do have some basis in reality. Texas has a high percentage of Latinos, and the fact that people are moving there from other parts of the country means the demographics are shifting in the state's electorate. Many Texas voters weren't raised deep in the heart of Texas, and bring different values systems with them when they move in. So more suburban voters from other areas plus energizing the Latino vote should equal a blue Texas, right?

Well, that's the dream in a nutshell. However, Texan Latinos are not the same as all Latinos nationwide, and many families have been in Texas longer than Texas has been Texas. If you're a sixth-generation Latino in Texas, your political views might be just as conservative as your non-Latino neighbor, to put it another way. First-generation immigrants have a different political outlook than families which have been on the same spot for more than 100 years. So Democrats should be wary of predictions made for the Texas Latino vote that are based on "here's how Latinos voted nationally" presumptions.

The state has been slowly trending purple (or at least purple-ish), which is another reason why Democrats keep dreaming. All those new voters are indeed making a difference, but the trendline is moving rather slowly -- perhaps too slow to make the dream a reality in either 2018 or 2020.

Today, Texas is casting primary votes for the midterm elections. The results may even be in by the time this article is posted, I should mention. So far, there has been an overwhelming amount of enthusiasm from Democrats, as measured by early votes cast. The Democratic turnout is up over 100 percent from the last midterms, while the Republican vote is only up something like 15 percent. That's a huge difference in enthusiasm, but early voting stats don't always pan out in total votes cast.

The other interesting trend in Texas is that Donald Trump's job approval rating in the Lone Star State is actually the lowest of any red state. This doesn't bode well for the midterms, which are often seen as a referendum on how the president is doing his job. It doesn't look like there will be "Trump coattails" at play in Texas, although things could always change by November.

While there are many House races that will be closely watched, the biggest race is for the Senate seat now held by Ted Cruz. Cruz doesn't have high job approval ratings from his constituents (the latest poll put him at 40 percent, which is pretty dismal for an incumbent), so if the Democratic primary turnout exceeds that of the Republicans, he could actually be in trouble. Of course, nothing would make Democrats happier in November than to send Ted Cruz packing, but he still has to be seen as the favorite to win the race. But if Democrats do win the seat, it would make the possibility of them taking control of the Senate much more likely.

Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic candidate, has so far been waging an impressive campaign. He swore early on not to accept money from super PACs, and even with this constraint has been outraising Cruz. Those small-donor donations add up, in other words. The fact that he's even close to Cruz in such a red state must be a worrisome sign for the Republicans.

Democrats could pick up as many as four or five House seats in November, but this will be tough to predict even after the primary voting totals are known. There are many districts with very tight races between a number of candidates (on both sides of the aisle), so excitement for one particular race may fade once the winnowing is complete (there may be runoff primary elections in many districts in a few weeks' time, if no candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote, I should mention).

The Texas primary is the real kickoff to the midterm election season. Because it is first (and so big, with so many interesting races), it will be scrutinized closely for signs of what's to come later in the year. If the turnout is as massive on the Democratic side as the early-voting returns suggest, then it's going to lead to a lot of exuberance and excitement among Democrats nationwide. So far, it hasn't been so much individual candidates or the Democratic Party that have driven the rising tide of blue, it has been Democratic voters, who seem more enthused about this midterm cycle than they've been in a very long time. The primaries aren't the same thing as the general election, of course, but a big Democratic turnout in Texas coupled with a subdued Republican turnout is just the continuation of a trend that's been happening elsewhere.

The big blue wave could be rising, and Texas might be another indicator of how big the swell is going to get. The very fact that Democrats are getting their hopes up in deep-red Texas isn't all that startling, because to a lesser extent it happens on a regular basis. But maybe -- just maybe, mind you -- that wave might crest high enough that Democratic dreams of winning Texas become reality this time around. The odds are still against it, but stranger things have happened in politics. Maybe this time, Texas won't be the one that got away, and the Democratic dream will finally be fulfilled.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant