Trump's Polling Turns South
One of the best indicators of how midterm elections will turn out is the current president's approval rating. If he's got high job approval ratings from the public, his party can be expected to do well; sometimes even breaking historical norms. If, however, the president's job approval rating is low, then his party usually suffers in the midterms. This tracks closer than many other indicators that numbers wonks watch, such as the state of the economy or the "right track/wrong track" generic polling question. In the past two weeks -- and just two months before the 2018 midterms -- President Donald Trump's polling numbers (which were historically very low to begin with) have taken a pretty steep dive downward. Republican candidates for office are reportedly increasingly worried about this new development -- as they well should be.
Watching Trump's polling over the summer has been pretty boring for the most part, because his polling numbers have remained remarkably consistent. Low but steady, in other words. In fact, the last time I saw fit to write about Trump's polling was way back in March. While I couldn't know it at the time, the day I wrote about Trump's polls was a minor inflection point, because while he had just hit a low of 39.8 percent job approval (all numbers, as always, are from the Real Clear Politics rolling daily average page), he then went on to recover from the mini-dip, and his numbers would rise back to the 41-42 percent range. Trump then got a boost at the end of April, when his average approval ticked up to the 43-44 percent range. His numbers would then largely stay the same all summer long. This is why there hasn't been much to comment upon ever since, because since the beginning of May, his numbers have been remarkably steady. Until a few weeks ago, that is.
On August 27th, Trump's job approval stood at 43.7 percent. This is right in the middle of the range he'd been occupying since May. But then his numbers took a dive, and they've been heading south ever since. Today, Trump's job approval stands at 40.6 percent, with a job disapproval rating of 53.6 percent. Poll after poll has shown Trump's approval below 40 percent, with some individual polls as low as 36 percent. Discounting the single-week dip back in March, this puts Trump's approval rating back where it was at the end of January (right before his State Of The Union bump), wiping out all the gains he made over the course of the year.
It's not too hard to see why Trump has taken this hit, since he's had an incredibly bad few weeks. First, there was the Paul Manafort guilty verdict and the voluntary Michael Cohen guilty plea. Then, John McCain died and Trump handled it petulantly. Trump was then hit by a double-barrelled condemnation of his presidency, by an anonymous New York Times opinion article and Bob Woodward's new book. The accumulation of all this bad news within a short time span has resulted in a three-point drop in Trump's job approval in just two weeks. That's an incredibly steep drop for one fortnight.
Republicans are getting increasingly worried as they watch this, because they know they've essentially been painted into a corner. Their only real campaign theme is how fervently they support Donald Trump, after all. To suddenly come out in opposition now would simply not be believable, in fact. So their fortunes are locked in to Trump's fortunes, for better or worse. Trump himself has added to this, by vigorously campaigning for Republican candidates everywhere he can. But the numbers have gotten so bad that Mitch McConnell is now seriously worried about retaining control of the Senate after November. The House is increasingly seen as a lost cause. The GOP is even having to pour millions of dollars into the Senate race in Texas -- a state where they normally coast to victory.
Of course, poll numbers can always change. Trump has had polling slumps before that he's pulled out of almost immediately. Two weeks simply isn't enough data to accurately predict large trends. So maybe it was just all the bad news over the past two weeks, and people will forget about it in the next few weeks, causing Trump's poll numbers to rebound. Then again, maybe not.
Let's take a look at what is in store for Trump before the election, to see what could help him and what might hurt him further. Trump's nominee to the Supreme Court is very likely to be confirmed. This may give Trump (and Republican candidates attempting to ride his coattails) a big boost among the Republican base. Republican voters care about judicial nominations a lot more than Democratic voters do, so getting a big win on the biggest court may provide a polling bump. This is scheduled to take place at the end of this month, so that when the Supreme Court starts its new session in October, there will be nine justices sitting on the bench.
Before that happens, though, there will be other courtroom news in the political arena. Paul Manafort's second federal trial will begin jury selection next Monday. One week later, the trial itself will begin. It is expected to take around three weeks, give or take. Adding in some time for jury deliberations, this means the verdict will be announced mere weeks before everyone votes.
Manafort is up against a lot more serious crimes than in his first federal trial. He is facing charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, not registering as a foreign agent, and attempted witness tampering. To the public, all of those are a much bigger deal than the bank and tax fraud charges he's already been convicted of. We'll be getting daily updates of the evidence presented from late September through the first few weeks of October. More guilty verdicts at the end of October would just reinforce the reality that Trump has utterly failed to "drain the swamp" because everyone he surrounds himself with is so downright swampy.
There's an alternate way this could play out, though. It was recently reported that Manafort is actively in talks with Bob Mueller's team about cutting a plea deal. There were no details revealed, mind you, just that they were in talks. The same thing (with the same lack of details) was reported during Manafort's first trial (his lawyers were reportedly in plea discussions while the jury was deliberating). If Manafort flips, it will likely be announced either later this week or perhaps next week, before the actual trial begins. So instead of weeks of courtroom reporting, Trump may instead get a short sharp shock if Manafort caves. This would be seen by Trump as an enormous betrayal, since Trump has been praising Manafort for weeks for not flipping. And, of course, Trump's then got to worry about what Manafort is going to tell Mueller that he doesn't already know.
Also before the election, there will be duelling documentaries, although their potential impact on public perception is murky and perhaps limited. Michael Moore is about to release his new film Fahrenheit 11/9 (which refers to the day after Trump won the 2016 election), and Steve Bannon is about to release a new hagiography of all things Trump, Trump @ War. One assumes that people who love Trump will go see the latter, while people who hate him will watch the former. But it's doubtful whether there will be much of a crossover, or that anyone will change their minds after watching either one of these films.
On Capitol Hill, what's waiting in the wings for Trump is an upcoming budget battle. Trump reportedly really wants to stage a government shutdown (because he's not going to get his border wall money, once again), but Republicans in Congress know what a political disaster that would be for them, so perhaps they'll be able to talk Trump out of such a rash move. Republicans will likely not get all of the appropriations bills done on time, meaning we'll have another "omnibus" or "continuing resolution" bill which just punts the entire budget down the road a few months (until after the election). So far, Democrats have done a pretty good job in these negotiations, and there's no reason to think that is going to change, so getting a budget out might actually help them instead of Trump. And, of course, if the government does shut down because Trump doesn't get his border wall money, that would obviously help Democrats and hurt Republicans, one month before the election.
More immediately, there's a big hurricane ("tremendously big and tremendously wet," according to Trump) heading for the Carolina coast. This has brought some overdue media and political attention to how badly Trump's FEMA botched their response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. If FEMA does a good job after Florence hits, Trump may actually get a nice boost in poll ratings, as there is almost always a "rally 'round the president" bump after any disaster hits (if, that is, the president is seen as empathetic and caring about the cleanup effort -- a rather big "if," for Trump). But if FEMA can't handle Florence, Trump will bear the brunt of the criticism, especially after the revelation that the Trump administration just moved $10 million out of FEMA so that ICE could pay to hold children in captivity. What is now a minor scandal could turn major if FEMA stumbles in any way.
This is all a pretty mixed bag for Trump. He's got one almost-guaranteed bit of good news to enthuse Republican voters (the Supreme Court nomination), but there are plenty of things that could go against him as well. Meaning his polling numbers could recover to where they were before the last two bad weeks, or they could in fact sink even lower. It's anyone's guess, really. So far, the mini-trend is decidedly downward. This may be the cumulative effect of the public's growing dissatisfaction with the way Trump is running things, or it may just be a temporary downturn for him. Either way, it's already causing Republicans to break out in a cold sweat. Because, as mentioned, presidential polling numbers are one of the most accurate ways to predict the outcomes of midterm elections. This recent downturn is important to more than just Donald Trump, so it bears watching over the next few weeks to see if things get any worse.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Trump's declining poll numbers are encouraging if you favor Democrats, but polls are hard to turn into probabilities of a particular political outcome. Fivethirtyeight forecasts about an 80% chance of Democrats winning The House o' Reprobates, better than even odds of taking the Senate. Still, how comfortable would you be crossing the street if you knew you had a 20% chance of getting hit by a bus? I guess it depends on what's on the other side of the street.
Forecasts are really only useful if you can use them to hedge against the political future. The mega wealthy can probably do this, but most of us prols can't....unless you can buy into the overseas election futures markets and actually collect your winnings, which is dubious. Maybe there should be election insurance policies. Liberty,Liberty, Liberty....Liberty.
I bring these limitations up even though I am fascinated by the mechanics of punditry.
PredictWise is less optimistic about Dem odds. Gives Dems the edge for the
House, Repubs a bigger edge forbthe Senate....but the data stops before Trump numbers started to drop.
Of course FEMA is going to stumble, they are set up for failure. And just not because Trump has pulled resources and funding, although that sure hasn’t helped the agency any! FEMA outsources just about every aspect of their operation. The private contractors that win contracts don’t have to actually be in possession of the products/services that they are paid for. If a company is awarded a contract to provide 10,000 generators to homes hit by a hurricane, it would seem like common sense to ask them if they have access to 10,000 generators at a moment’s notice BEFORE paying them in full.
Take the company in Atlanta last year that was hired to make over 100,000 individual meals to be handed out. That’s a lot of food, especially for a standard kitchen that you might find in a church... which is exactly where this company’s kitchen was located! They didn’t even have the business connections necessary to order enough raw food in bulk to fulfill their contractual obligation, and no place to put it if they could have ordered it. They made less than 1000 meals. But they did put in the lowest bid, so the FEMA manager who hired them got a nice bonus for being under budget when they were awarded the contract!
Stories like these are typical.
Liz,
I really hope that's true because, the important issues raised in Chris's pieces deserve companion discussions with people of good will and thoughtful disposition.
Not only is it true, it's also factually accurate.. :D
We're not sure we're going to have things in place by the FTP, but that's what we're shooting for..
Polls???
Seriously!!??? :D
After the Great Poll Debacle Of 2016, you are not seriously putting yer faith in POLLS, are you??
Say it ain't so!! :D
Sure, at this point in time his numbers are down. They were down before, then they went up.. They'll probably go down again, then they'll go up..
Obama's numbers did the exact same thing, almost in the exact same range...
I know Democrats would like to believe that it has some cosmic significance for the election, that it's a harbinger of good things to come..
But it's not..
There are other much more concrete FACTS that are MUCH more relevant that indicate the Democrat's coming shellacking...
Like I am fond of point out, this is simply a repeat of 2016.. Democrats would cherry pick all the good things that would make them all warm and fuzzy, assuring Democrats will have the White House, the House and the Senate and have a virtual lock on government. A return to the heady days of 2008..
But Democrats ignored ALL the FACTS that proved the coming shellacking..
History repeats itself...
President Trump...
GREAT AGAIN: USA Is Now The Largest Global Crude Oil Producer – Surpasses Russia and Saudi Arabia
The United States likely surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer earlier this year, based on preliminary estimates in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In February, U.S. crude oil production exceeded that of Saudi Arabia for the first time in more than two decades. In June and August, the United States surpassed Russia in crude oil production for the first time since February 1999.
Although EIA does not publish crude oil production forecasts for Russia and Saudi Arabia in STEO, EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019.
https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/09/12/the-united-states-is-now-the-largest-global-crude-oil-producer-surpassed-russia-and-saudi-arabia/
Making America GREAT Again...
"KICKIN' NAMES AND TAKIN' ASS!!!"
-Mantis, AVENGERS-INFINITY WAR
:D
‘Silent Donation’: Corporate Emails Reveal Google Executives’ Efforts to Turn Out Latino Voters Who They Thought Would Vote for Clinton
An email chain among senior Google executives from the day after the 2016 presidential election reveals the company tried to influence the 2016 United States presidential election on behalf of one candidate, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In the emails, a Google executive describes efforts to pay for free rides for a certain sect of the population to the polls–a get-out-the-vote for Hispanic voters operation–and how these efforts were because she thought it would help Hillary Clinton win the general election in 2016. She also used the term “silent donation” to describe Google’s contribution to the effort to elect Clinton president.
The main email, headlined, “Election results and the Latino vote,” was sent on Nov. 9, 2016—the day after Clinton’s loss to Trump in the 2016 presidential election—by Eliana Murillo, Google’s Multicultural Marketing department head.
The four page email begins with Murillo claiming she and others at Google were engaged in non-partisan activities not designed to help any one candidate or another—only to undercut her own commentary in later passages in the emails by openly admitting the entire effort to boost Latino turnout using Google products with official company resources was to elect Clinton over Trump.
The critical miscalculation, Murillo wrote in a stunning admission in the email, was that Latino voters backed Trump by higher margins than any experts had forecast in the lead-up to the election. Trump’s 29 percent among Hispanics nationally blew prognosticators away, and he hit even higher numbers—about 31 percent—in the key battleground state of Florida, Murillo admitted. 5/50
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/10/silent-donation-corporate-emails-reveal-google-executives-efforts-to-swing-election-to-hillary-clinton-with-latino-outreach-campaign/
Normally, I wouldn't even bother posting a Brietbart piece, despite knowing how much ya'all love yer HuffPoops and yer WaPoops..
But this is just to hilarious NOT to share..
So, GOOGLE, whose motto was once DO NO EVIL, they hit on this AWESOME idea to help Hillary by busing all her hispanic voters to the voting station.. A move that crosses the line into illegality..
And lo and behold, these hispanic voters vote for TRUMP in record numbers!!!????
I mean, WOW!!! Talk about being hoisted by their own Picard!!! :D
It's ISMAEL in spades!!! GOOGLE's actions may have actually brought about the very thing that they had hoped to prevent!!!
It's hilarious!!!!! :D
Of course, that's probably overstating things a bit.. Giving GOOGLE way too much power.. On the other hand, this was a multi-state operation, so it's entirely possible that it was GOOGLE's efforts in a close state that GAVE the state to Trump!!
It's really REALLY funny... I mean, imagine the look on these bozos faces when they got the data that they gave rides to hundreds if not THOUSANDS of Trump voters!!!! That they actually helped these "facist" voters to go vote!!!!!
That's gonna keep a smile on my face all day!!! :D
Fact Checker Analysis
Did Brett Kavanaugh signal he supports ‘going after birth control’?
Harris’s original tweet, with the “they say” language removed, was slightly mitigated by the second tweet a day later, providing the full context. But there was no acknowledgment by Harris that the original tweet was misleading. She earns Four Pinocchios -- and her fellow Democrats should drop this talking point.
Four Pinocchios
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/11/did-brett-kavanaugh-offer-dog-whistle-abortion-foes/?utm_term=.96f3905bda0a
Even a busted analog watch is right twice a day.. :D
So, any Democrats gonna castigate Harris for this bullshit accusation??
Anyone?? Anyone??? Beuhler???
Give Trump the Nobel Prize for Economics
This past week I asked a friend at the White House about how the president was holding up against the onslaught of media attacks. "They didn't even deliver a glancing blow," was the response. It wasn't for a lack of trying.
Has any president in modern times been the target of such a Blitzkrieg of orchestrated assaults -- from John McCain's funeral turned anti-Trump scrum to Bob Woodward's discredited new book trashing the president to the media infatuation with the anonymous New York Times op-ed by a disgruntled federal employee who hates President Trump.
Here we go again. Trump is (for the umpteenth time) characterized as dangerous, deranged, delusional, infantile, racist and amoral. But Trump is like Muhammad Ali playing rope-a-dope while George Foreman (the media) is flailing away and punching himself out. The only people who pay attention to the anti-Trump screeds are already frothing at the mouth with Trump hatred. What is the point? 3/14
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/11/give_trump_the_nobel_prize_for_economics_138035.html
Exactly the point!
Ya'all get so hysterical about a new book or a new accusation or new op-ed or any other new shiny..
And yet, it's NOTHING new.
It's just the same ol' same ol' bullshit that **ONLY** those who already hysterically hate President Trump will give two shitz about..
It's ALL nothing but a big YYYAAAAWWWWNNNN to patriotic Americans who are really REALLY excited that President Trump is doing so awesome!! :D
But hay.. If it keeps the NeverTrumpers occupied and keeps their eye off the prize....
Works for me.. :D
More immediately, there's a big hurricane ("tremendously big and tremendously wet," according to Trump) heading for the Carolina coast.
President Trump is wrong..
There WAS a big hurricane.. Now it's a Cat 2.. We barely get out of bed for a Cat 2...
This has brought some overdue media and political attention to how badly Trump's FEMA botched their response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.
You mean the totally crap infrastructure that was the fault of the Democrat-esque government that hampered FEMA's relief efforts??
. What is now a minor scandal could turn major if FEMA stumbles in any way.
And Democrats are fervently hoping that this will happen, that MILLIONS of Americans will die... JUST so they can blame President Trump.. :^/
Sad
This economy is definitely not Obama’s recovery
Barack Obama is trying to take credit for the booming economy under President Trump. “When you hear how great the economy is doing right now,” Obama said on the campaign trail for Democratic candidates a few days ago, “let’s just remember when this recovery started.”
By this logic, the Kingston Trio laid the groundwork for the Beatles.
But the contrast in economic performance between the two presidents is undeniable. Obama’s multitrillion-dollar spend-and-borrow policies produced 2 percent growth. In his final year, Obama handed off to Trump an economy that was limping at 1.6 percent.
After only 18 months in office, Trump has elevated growth to 3 percent on an annual rate and the latest projections are that the growth rate for the second and third quarter (which ends Sept. 30) will be over 4 percent. One might say all it took to get the economy really crackling was getting Obama out of office.
Obama is right that this has been a long recovery — beginning in June 2009. But the real economic boom started almost the day after the election in 2016 with the surge in small business, investor and consumer confidence.
No one on the left, least of all Obama, thought this was remotely possible. 6/16
https://nypost.com/2018/09/12/this-economy-definitely-is-not-obamas-recovery/
It's funny.. Ya'all accepted Obama's "You didn't build that" bullshit..
Yet NOW... NOW that things about the economy are AWESOME... NOW ya'all want to back pedal and claim that Odumbo DID, in fact, build that..
:^/
President Trump...
Why small business owners love Donald Trump
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/wayne-allyn-root/why-small-business-owners-love-donald-trump/
Making American GREAT Again...
Russ
4
FEMA outsources just about every aspect of their operation. The private contractors that win contracts don’t have to actually be in possession of the products/services that they are paid for. If a company is awarded a contract to provide 10,000 generators to homes hit by a hurricane, it would seem like common sense to ask them if they have access to 10,000 generators at a moment’s notice BEFORE paying them in full.
Yes, sir. When we got to areas surrounding Houston in order to help in the rescue efforts during Harvey, FEMA was nonexistent. Fast forward to the cleanup efforts, the FEMA trailers for those devastated by Harvey were finally delivered at around 6 months.
While Trump grades his administration's efforts an A+ for their response to Harvey, Irma, and Maria -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- FEMA admits in their after-action report to being understaffed and unprepared.
https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/167249
The FEMA supply warehouse on Puerto Rico had zero tarps, zero cots, and an almost nonexistent stockpile of food and water. In their after-action report assessing their response, FEMA acknowledges being badly underprepared for one of the worst disasters to strike Puerto Rico.
Take the company in Atlanta last year that was hired to make over 100,000 individual meals to be handed out. That’s a lot of food, especially for a standard kitchen that you might find in a church... which is exactly where this company’s kitchen was located! They didn’t even have the business connections necessary to order enough raw food in bulk to fulfill their contractual obligation, and no place to put it if they could have ordered it. They made less than 1000 meals. But they did put in the lowest bid, so the FEMA manager who hired them got a nice bonus for being under budget when they were awarded the contract!
I've heard hundreds of similar stories surrounding Harvey where money was paid but services were not delivered, but wherever FEMA faltered and dropped multiple balls, there were literally thousands of Texans who stepped up and picked up the slack where necessary. The JJ Watt Foundation in particular could teach FEMA a thing or two, and for the sake of those in the Carolinas and surrounding areas, here's hoping they've got the manpower for the hard work on the ground this season and not simply ready for the public relations and photo ops.
TESTING ONLY..
ipcamlive
TESTING ONLY
http://www.ipcamlive
CW,
Bug report..
Your website does not like 'ipcamlive' and '.com' altogether..
For everyone else..
If ya'all are interesting in watching Florence's approach LIVE
https://tinyurl.com/y8txgwz4
A cautionary tale:
Everyone just ASSUMES that Kavanaugh will be confirmed.
BUT, he is carrying A LOT of baggage. More than ANY other RECENT nominee.
IF, all Senate Democrats hang together and vote against him, and so do Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who are both under tremendous pressure, something NOT out of the realm of possibility (Given problems with abortion and Native Alaskans, respectively) then he COULD go down to DEFEAT.
All I am saying is, DON'T count your chickens before they are HATCHED, and remember if it does come about, you HEARD it here FIRST. :-D
CW: Also before the election, there will be duelling documentaries, although their potential impact on public perception is murky and perhaps limited.
Additionally, a new documentary film Active Measures was released recently regarding the ways Russia has worked to influence and subvert American democracy and Trump's business connections with Russia and money laundering operations dating back to the mid 80s.
Anyone interested, it's free on Hulu.
Everyone just ASSUMES that Kavanaugh will be confirmed.
There is a reason for that.. :D
BUT, he is carrying A LOT of baggage. More than ANY other RECENT nominee.
No more so than any other SCOTUS nominee and a LOT less than Sotomayer and Kagan..
IF, all Senate Democrats hang together and vote against him, and so do Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska,
There is absolutely NO FACTS to even HINT that Collins and Murkows... Murkosw...... Lisa of Alaska will jump ship...
There is a HUGE plethora of factual data that indicates at least FIVE Senate Democrats will jump ship...
All I am saying is, DON'T count your chickens before they are HATCHED, and remember if it does come about, you HEARD it here FIRST. :-D
I will be the FIRST to give you credit if that comes to pass, JM.. :D
But look at it this way.. Even *IF* Kavanaugh is stopped this round, it's all but a given that the GOP numbers in the Senate will increase... Considerably, if Red State Democrats go against Kavanaugh...
Then President Trump simply re-nominates Kavanaugh and the Judge sails thru Confirmation...
This is TRULY a no win scenario for Democrats..
https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM
Another webcam, atop a floating rig..
WARNING: Turn down the volume on yer pooter!! :^/
JM,
On another note, here is a little tidbit of a mystery after Florence passes....
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12cbcbe6d17e7031da54a7e9b2b3b608643afe0cf2b0db7d8c77fc04e88f583a.jpg
John M
21
Everyone just ASSUMES that Kavanaugh will be confirmed.
BUT, he is carrying A LOT of baggage. More than ANY other RECENT nominee.
Senator Corey Booker's dropbox full of documents is ever expanding by the day. I tried to post a link which appears to have gone nowhere, but it's on his Twitter feed and quite interesting reading.
https://ew.com/tv/2018/09/13/tim-allen-interview/
Very nice.. Awesome, in fact... :D
Liz,
https://newrepublic.com/article/151159/tim-geithner-resistance-inside-obama-administration
Interesting article...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/michael-moore-accused-of-stiffing-smearing-vendors-all-i-would-like-is-to-be-paid
That's what Democrats are all about..
Stiffing the hard working patriotic American... :^/
Well, I finished "Fear" last night.
A bit choppy, but then the subject matter he is covering is all over the place constantly with no plan, goals or clue.
The saddest part of the book recounts how many times adults tried to explain simple economics to the orange painted clown and yet he just can't grasp the basics. Whoever suggested he hire Navarro should be taken out and jumped in cold water every hour on the hour for the rest of this moronic "trade war".
Given how stupid the trade "plan" is, and how internally contradictory, this is just going to be one moronic fiasco after the other: (1) China is bad so we need to get the rest of the World on the same side to counter their unfair play, so (2) let's piss off every ally we can so they won't help us, and (3) let's throw the TPP out of the window at the start of play.
Since the idiot at 1600 Penn can't ever concede he might be wrong, he is likely to take down the economy before even the Republicans revolt and override some of the stupider damage, which will be too late of course.
Well, I finished "Fear" last night.
In other words, nothing new.. Same ol same ol allegations, rumors and innuendo...
Another shiny for the hysterical NeverTrumpers to get orgasmic about until the next shiny comes along.. :^/
Well, I finished "Fear" last night.
In other words, nothing new.. Same ol same ol allegations, rumors and innuendo...
Another shiny for the hysterical NeverTrumpers to get orgasmic about until the next shiny comes along.. :^/
neilm
30
A bit choppy, but then the subject matter he is covering is all over the place constantly with no plan, goals or clue.
Undeniably so.
Whoever suggested he hire Navarro should be taken out and jumped in cold water every hour on the hour for the rest of this moronic "trade war".
Jared Kushner found Navarro by browsing Amazon books. No, I'm not kidding.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328969-report-kushner-found-trump-economic-advisor-navarro-by-browsing
Nice book review, Neil; you're way ahead of me! I did read the last page first, though. Pretty good last page. :)
neilm
30
I had to post again because I have another link regarding your observations on Trump and trade:
John Oliver Made an Explanatory Video to Help President Trump Understand Trade
http://time.com/5371469/john-oliver-last-week-tonight-trade/
It's an eye opener and good for a few laughs. :)
Thanks Kick. So Jared deserves the daily cold dunk of shame every hour for this moronic fiasco.
I should have known it was somebody in the family. What a clown show.
Just a reminder:
Conman: "Who's going to pay for the wall?"
Gullible: "MEXICO!"
So Jared deserves the cold dunk of shame every hour for this moronic fiasco.
Corrected.
Is that a link to the infamous Trump pee video? :D
Hehehehehe
On a similar note, you a computer gamer at all??
Reality: We are about to pay Mexico to take back immigrants.
$20M
What a clown show.
http://farcry.wikia.com/wiki/Willis_Huntley
:D
[22] Kick: I saw Active Measures last week - chilling. Absolutely chilling.
Re: FEMA - the practices of outsourcing and using the lowest bid as the deciding factor for awarding contracts is going, inevitably, to lead to bad outcomes. Or at least, lesser outcomes. Both speak to the misplaced idea many hold that business practices translate well to provision of government services. Half the time they don't even help businesses with respect of quality of products and services. They may save $ or make $ for shareholders and top execs, but that's different.
And now FEMA is in the hands of an incompetent criminal surrounded by grifters.
Re: FEMA - the practices of outsourcing and using the lowest bid as the deciding factor for awarding contracts is going, inevitably, to lead to bad outcomes. Or at least, lesser outcomes. Both speak to the misplaced idea many hold that business practices translate well to provision of government services. Half the time they don't even help businesses with respect of quality of products and services. They may save $ or make $ for shareholders and top execs, but that's different.
Yes, that's been the practice of FEMA for decades..
Funny.. No one had a problem with that under Odumbo..
It's only a problem when the POTUS has a -R after their name..
Odumbo's response to Sandy was ONLY made better by the governor of NJ... Odumbo's response to the Louisiana was nothing shore of criminally negligent..
Hell, even Presidential Candidate Trump went to Louisiana!!
So, please.. Spare me the crocodile tears about FEMA under President Trump.. President Trump did great with Harvey.. The only reason PR was such a fiasco was because the Democrat-esque government of PR totally scroo'ed the pooch...
President Trump + GOP Governing @ Hurricane Harvey? AAA+++
President Trump + Dem-esque Governing in Puerto Rico??
Disaster
Paula
42
I saw Active Measures last week - chilling. Absolutely chilling.
It's the tip of the iceberg, but it sure explains quite a bit. Mueller is hot on their trail, speaking of which: Did you hear the DOJ reached a plea agreement with Pyotr Levashov -- one of the many extradited Russian hackers I've posted about from time to time?
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ct/pr/russian-national-who-operated-kelihos-botnet-pleads-guilty-fraud-conspiracy-computer
He pleaded guilty to one count of this, one count of that and will be sentenced in September 2019, and reading between the lines, that means he's now a cooperating witness.
The answer to the obvious question is: Yes.
__________________
And now FEMA is in the hands of an incompetent criminal surrounded by grifters.
Mobsters Are Governing America
[44] Kick: Mobsters Are Governing America - Yep! Perfect.
In Active Measures, when the Putin puppet in Ukraine went after the woman who'd been the equivalent to our Veep of the previously elected Pres, and jailed her on bogus charges - it was just like the "lock her up" our American traitors have been throwing at HRC. That one thing - among so many - but that one thing is deeply, deeply wicked.
The Blotus-operation followed the Ukrainian and Georgian playbook.
So here is how this amazing deal with Mexico works:
1) Central Americans cross into Mexico intent on getting to the U.S.
2) Mexico then take the immigrants back to their home country by plane or another form of transportation.
3) Mexico then bill us for the transportation costs.
This means that the more immigrants Mexico claim they are repatriating, the more money the White House will give them.
This reminds me of a program a software company set up to pay Q.A. a bonus for every bug they found. The program seemed to be wildly successful as the number of bugs caught escalated exponentially. The only problem was that the Q.A. engineers cut the programmers in on the bonus, ensuring that the programmers would introduce more and more bugs and let Q.A. know where they were.
So here is how this amazing deal with Mexico works:
SO, any FACTS to support yer claims??
Don't tell me, let me guess..
You ready it in Bob I WANT TO TAKE DOWN A POTUS AGAIN Woodward's book... :D
Of course:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/us/politics/us-mexico-deportation-funds.html
https://www.jaguars.com/news/game-day-fan-information-patriots-vs-jaguars
THAT is how real patriotic Americans play football!! :D
DH, are you ready for the Jags to stomp the Pats??? :D
Paula
45
The Blotus-operation followed the Ukrainian and Georgian playbook.
Absolutely... and Paulie's fingerprints are all over it; he is the glue that binds it all together. If Mueller can swing Manafort's cooperation, that'll be big; however, I still can't see Manafort flipping until he is more worried about what the United States is going to do to him versus Russia. I also don't think Mueller will give Manafort a deal that doesn't include cooperation, but I guess we'll know soon.
Mueller has Manafort's multiple millions as leverage, and there's nothing quite like an impending jury selection and trial date -- and item after item of damning exhibits -- to help a man make up his mind.
Mueller has Manafort's multiple millions as leverage, and there's nothing quite like an impending jury selection and trial date -- and item after item of damning exhibits -- to help a man make up his mind.
Mueller had all that and MORE before..
Manafort is home free.. And is getting a welcome respite til after the mid-term elections.. :D
Manafort is home free.. And is getting a welcome respite til after the mid-term elections..
I'm not sure that the fellow that wears expensive suits considers his time the Alexandria County lockup a 'welcome respite'.
He was in a 'club fed' facility further from D.C. until his lawyers complained to his last judge that the distance made it harder to meet deadlines. So the judge moved him closer. Manafort's lawyers tried to tell the judge "no, that's not what we meant" ...but too late.
The question that must be running through his mind is probably, why hasn't Trump already pardoned him for the felonies that he's already been convicted of?
Trump could do that, you know. There's nothing in the law that says that Trump can't pardon someone over and over, if he likes.
So it's no wonder that Manafort's back to talking to Mueller about a deal. To increase Manafort's motivation to deal, Mueller's making Manafort wait to find out the results of his second trial before revealing what charges he might bring in the 'Collusion' case.
To add pepper to his present stew, Manafort knows that Mueller could also go back and re-try him on the charges that the jury hung on in the first case. In the meantime, State prosecutors haven't yet presented their cases against him, which Trump can't pardon him out of.
Manafort will flop on Trump. He's just negotiating about whether that will involve a triple backflip or a double lutz. In the meantime he's forced to tell prosecutors what he might be able to tell them about Trump.
Re: CW's topic-of-the-day
Here's a fun little website that features an interactive map that shows Trump's approval rating by state. It has a slider bar that allows you to see how those approval ratings have changed over time.
When you get to the website, scroll down to find the map, or click on the BY STATE icon.
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/
Welcome back, Balthy.. Enjoy the Waffle House?? :D
I'm not sure that the fellow that wears expensive suits considers his time the Alexandria County lockup a 'welcome respite'.
As opposed to the trial?? :D
The question that must be running through his mind is probably, why hasn't Trump already pardoned him for the felonies that he's already been convicted of?
Oh, that's easy.. Trump is using Manafort as a designated decoy...
Surely ya know what that is, eh? :D
Trump could do that, you know. There's nothing in the law that says that Trump can't pardon someone over and over, if he likes.
And what will Trump find out about what Mueller knows by ending it all now??
To add pepper to his present stew, Manafort knows that Mueller could also go back and re-try him on the charges that the jury hung on in the first case.
You know, I know and Manafort knows that will NEVER happen... Mueller has WAY too much to lose if he goes for a retrial and LOSES again..
Manafort will flop on Trump.
Yea, that's what ya'all keep saying..
And yet.. Ya'all have *ALWAYS* been wrong.. :D
See, now if ya were a TV-phile like I am, you could bring up that old MISSION IMPOSSIBLE episode.. :D
Re: CW's topic-of-the-day, part deux
Wonder if you caught McConnell in Louisville Tuesday, telling some hard to donors about the midterm Senate races:
""All of them are too close to call, and every one of them is like a knife fight in an alley. Just a brawl in every one of those places," McConnell said. "I hope when the smoke clears that we'll still have a majority in the Senate."
Why is McConnell worried? Take a look at RealClearPolitics State by State Senate race map. He's got two worrisome races, Cruz in Texas and Heller in Nevada, plus two completely open seats, in Tennessee and Arizona. Losing any two of those and all of the toss-up Democratic seats will cost the GOP the senate.
Have another Mint Julip, Mitch. You're gonna need it.
Not a computer gamer. I gave up video games with Nintendo 2.
Yea, I am not what you would call a heavy gamer.. I like playing FPS games on my day off. Strictly single player..
Far Cry 5 was (and is) killer.. I mentioned it because one of the missions is to work with CIA Agent Willis Huntley where the "Big Man" wants us to recover a vhs tape from a Russian operator.. It's so over the top Anti-Trump, it's hilarious.. :D
Just to show I don't hold a grudge (well, at least not this time), because the Jags once again crushed my hope for the Giants and Patriots to meet in this year's Superbowl with both teams at 18-0 I will root for the Jags to win this week.
hehe.. Yea, all the predictions I have read give this game to the Jags.. Lots working in the Jags favor.. I would love to see the Jags beat the Pats...
Of course, this would also help the Jets even though the Jets don't need it anymore now that they have without question solved their quarterback problems as Darnold has now clearly demonstrated he is a superior quarterback to Tom Brady.
Ahhh.. So, the 30 Sep game, we should have a contest??? :D
Why is McConnell worried? Take a look at RealClearPolitics State by State Senate race map. He's got two worrisome races, Cruz in Texas and Heller in Nevada, plus two completely open seats, in Tennessee and Arizona. Losing any two of those and all of the toss-up Democratic seats will cost the GOP the senate.
Oh come on, Balthy..
I know for a FACT that you are not that stoopid.. (that's a compliment, regardless of how it came out)..
Your FIRST clue was " telling some donors" (I left out the "hard to" because I wasn't sure what the hell that meant.. :D )
It's like when Hillary was begging and fear-mongering to donors that they were going to lose this thing so send money quickly..
..... OK, bad example.. :D
But you see the point.. The facts could show that the GOP will gain 15 seats in the Senate and McConnell would be saying the EXACT same thing..
The facts could show that Democrats will win 100 seats in the House and Democrats will be telling donors it's a SURE LOSS if donors don't give money..
McConnell is not worried... NO ONE is worried about the Senate.. At least 10 seats will flip in this race.. 1 will go to the Dems (Nev) and the other 9 will go to the GOP..
NO ONE is worried, least of all McConnell. He just wants to DONORS to be worried.. Worried donors means lots and lots of money..
Com'on...
He's got two worrisome races, Cruz in Texas and Heller in Nevada,
Nevada is going to the Dems.. There is no way Cruz will lose in Texas...
NO ONE is worried.. :D
..... OK, bad example.. :D
"What kind of archaeologist carries as gun!!?"
"Uhh... I do..."
"... OK, bad example.."
-STARGATE SG1, Window Of Opportunity
:D
Your FIRST clue was " telling some donors" (I left out the "hard to" because I wasn't sure what the hell that meant..
I meant 'telling some hard truths to donors'. oop.
It turns out that I was wrong, it wasn't a group of donors at all, it was a press conference.
At that press conference, McConnell also refused to address allegations in Woodward's new book that he and Ryan privately backed the CEOs that quit Trump's business council after the Charlottesville broo-ha-ha. That's not a 'no'.
.
Different sources provided different accounts of the contents of the letter, and some of the sources said they themselves had heard different versions, but the one consistent theme was that it describes an incident involving Kavanaugh and a woman while they were in high school. Kept hidden, the letter is beginning to take on a life of its own.
https://theintercept.com/2018/09/12/brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-dianne-feinstein/?comments=1#comments
THAT is how desperate Dumbocrats are??
They want to judge Kavanaugh on an incident in HIGH SCHOOL!!???
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
At that press conference, McConnell also refused to address allegations in Woodward's new book that he and Ryan privately backed the CEOs that quit Trump's business council after the Charlottesville broo-ha-ha. That's not a 'no'.
And it's not a yes..
So, all Woodward has is unsubstantiated rumors..
As I said..
Trump tells his senior aides that his base will believe whatever he tells them.
I wonder what it is like to be told you have to believe everything from a man who has been documented lying almost continuously. A man whose own lawyer described him as a "pathological liar".
What a bunch of suckers they are going to feel when they finally wise up, if they ever do.
“The president asks me all the time, ‘Why did Roy Moore lose?’” Mick Mulvaney, his budget director, recently said at a New York fundraiser.
Our confused "stable genius".
Hi Rightwingers:
Are you counting on Social Security and/or Medicare when you retire?
Then you'd better start pestering your Republican overlords about the Taxcut 2.0.
So, all Woodward has is unsubstantiated rumors
A lie can go around the World before the truth can get its boots on, but the truth prevails.
Patience, Michale, you will find out you have been lied to and made a fool of by a cheap conman. I know that is going to be emotionally difficult for you to accept, but it is very obvious to anybody who isn't desperate to believe.
Yeah, it seems as though a corner has been turned, a shark has been jumped. The behavior of Trump that used to seem quirky and deliberately random now just seems disturbingly random. The apparent lack of strategy or even coherence doesn't seem to be evidence of a secret plan, it appears to be evidence of the lack of a plan.
People can handle a maverick. We just buried one with honors. But an impulse-driven maniac gives most people pause, and that's looking more and more like what we've got in the White House.
Trump's Puerto Rican delusions are today being pointed to as a case-on-point. I expect that Tucker Carlson will do his best impression of indisputable logic for this one.
But imagine for a moment a headline that read:
TAFT BLAMES DEMS FOR HIGH TITANIC TOLL
Says passenger deaths after rescue shouldn't count
...and you see the problem.
Balthasar
52
I'm not sure that the fellow that wears expensive suits considers his time the Alexandria County lockup a 'welcome respite'.
I know, right!? "Home" is good descriptor, though, since Paulie will be spending the majority of the remainder of his life there unless he makes some kind of a deal with Mueller.
Trump could do that, you know. There's nothing in the law that says that Trump can't pardon someone over and over, if he likes.
Of course, it wouldn't be a "good look" in the court of public opinion for the BLOTUS who keeps professing "no collusion," "no collusion" like a broken wind up doll to pardon any of his co-conspirators, let alone Manafort. In fact, I would wager that a pardon for Paulie would be quite the feather in Mueller's cap to add to his obstruction of justice arsenal of evidence against Benedict Donald.
So it's no wonder that Manafort's back to talking to Mueller about a deal. To increase Manafort's motivation to deal, Mueller's making Manafort wait to find out the results of his second trial before revealing what charges he might bring in the 'Collusion' case.
Also known as the "conspiracy" and/or RICO case.
In the meantime, State prosecutors haven't yet presented their cases against him, which Trump can't pardon him out of.
Yes, sir... those pesky state charges that will be coming, no doubt about that. Do you think Manafort cares whether or not prison is his home for the remainder of his life because of crimes he committed against a few individual states or against the United States? Seems to me like he's going to need Mueller no matter what pardons may come in order to help him work with New York, Virginia, et al to avoid the clink. Poor Paulie. :)
Manafort will flop on Trump. He's just negotiating about whether that will involve a triple backflip or a double lutz.
Exactly. They always do. It need never be made public regarding the ways Paulie helped Mueller, but he'll have no choice whatsoever than to do some kind of a performance; the only question is how many songs he'll be singing and whether or not it'll be a private or public performance.
In the meantime he's forced to tell prosecutors what he might be able to tell them about Trump.
"Queen for a day," they call it; however, in Paulie's case we're looking at more like "queen for a week or two, maybe three." ;)
BREAKING NEWS: Manafort has reached a plea deal.
Who knew?
Balthasar
56
Why is McConnell worried?
Oh, easy answer. Because he along with the RNC has a finite amount of money that needs to be allocated to the states he's defending, and he's not used to having to send any resources at all to a state like Texas. The money that is being diverted to Texas to defend Cruz's Senate seat because "nobody likes Ted Cruz" is money that could have gone somewhere else. Pity that.
Losing any two of those and all of the toss-up Democratic seats will cost the GOP the senate.
Beto will not likely win in Texas, but I will say this: More than any other candidate I've seen in quite awhile, he does have a chance to pull it off. If all those voters in Texas who believe their vote won't matter because it's a foregone conclusion because "Texas" will just get off their rear ends and vote anyway and all those people who hate Ted Cruz for multiple different reasons stay home, Beto has a chance to win.
This Beto-type scenario is playing out in multiple states where races that aren't supposed to be competitive are suddenly competitive, and the Orange Blowhole has announced there won't be any raises for federal employees and he's also talking government shutdown, and who knows what else stupid thing the ignorant fool will either do or say or tweet between now and November?
That's why Mitch is worried. :)
Balthasar
I forgot to state the obvious answer to "why is Mitch worried": Because "Senator Roy Moore." ;)
neilm
67
A lie can go around the World before the truth can get its boots on, but the truth prevails.
Boots can sometimes be really hard to get on. ;)
Beto will not likely win in Texas, but I will say this: More than any other candidate I've seen in quite awhile, he does have a chance to pull it off.
Don't count Beto out, yet. As you note, Cruz doesn't inspire love in almost anyone. RCP is saying that the race is within 3.2, but the trend for Cruz since last June is all in the wrong direction, and at least one recent poll has the candidates just one point apart.
I forgot to state the obvious answer to "why is Mitch worried": Because "Senator Roy Moore."
Yep! You win the kewpie doll. ;}
Balthasar
73
Don't count Beto out, yet.
Why, I would never! :p *laughs*
Not only would I never, I will also be one of those volunteering a vehicle to drive people to the polls, and my new Honda Pilot Elite AWD seats 8! :)
Patience, Michale,
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Neil, you have been saying that EXACT same thing for ** OVER TWO YEARS NOW **!!!!! And NOTHING has ever happened!!!
:D
I have no doubt that, when President Trump leaves office on 20 Jan 2024, yer STILL going to be saying:
"Patience Michale... Any day now, President Trump will get his.."
Yeah, it seems as though a corner has been turned, a shark has been jumped.
Yea??
Where??? :D
Trump tells his senior aides that his base will believe whatever he tells them.
Yea??
FACTS that prove your claim??
Non-existent...
As per usual... :D
Balthy,
So, to recap..
There is nothing to worry about in Nevada...
Dems will get Nevada.. No worries mate..
There is nothing to worry about in Texas..
GOP will keep Texas.. No worries mate.. :D
10 seats will flip from one Party to the other..
Of that 10, Dems will get 1... The GOP will get 9...
After the mid-terms, the make up of the Senate will be 59-41...
I may be wrong about the House. I don't think so, but I am willing to concede I might be..
And I also may be wrong about the exact make up of the Senate.. It's a safe bet, but I'll allow for surprises..
But the one thing I am absolutely 1000% sure of...
The GOP will keep the Senate.. You might as well accept that as fact..
Anything less puts you in the loony delusional seats..
"Which puts him in the crazy, but not stoopid, seats..."
-Mac, SPEED
:D
"Which puts him in the crazy, but not stoopid, seats..."
-Mac, SPEED
Oops.. Misquote..
"Which puts him in the crazy, but not stoopid, section..."
-Mac, SPEED
My bust....
Dumbocrats and the Chinese have something in common..
Both want to remove President Trump from office... :^/
This is a test. Just ignore me.