We (Finally) Have A Winner!
Just a fair warning, up front: this is not a real column. We've got a lot of odds and ends to deal with today, so it's more of a "cleanup on aisle three" type of column today. You have been warned.
One reason I'm slacking off today is that I have been remiss in another area, that of writing thank-you emails to everyone who has so far donated to the CW.com cause. As you can see by that thermometer, we're well on our way to achieving our pledge goal very early this year, so kudos to everyone who has helped so far.
Today we've got two areas to cover, and they both involve our commenters and readers. The first is to take care of some very old business, and the second is to ask for year-end nominations.
We (Finally!) Have A Winner!
Our big news is that the longest-running contest in this blog's history is finally almost over. Woo hoo! Way back in August of 2017, when John Kelly was named as Trump's new chief of staff, we opened the field to predictions of how long he'd last. Now that he's officially on his way out the door, we can finally award some prizes.
Or one prize in particular. In the comments to the article (at altohone's suggestion), I offered up an actual prize this time (rather than our standard awards of Quatloos) -- a nifty bumpersticker from Netroots Nation 2017:
It's been up on my fridge for so long I actually forgot I had offered it up as a prize, but I'm now ready to send it out.
But before we get to the award, let's just take a moment to review John Kelly's worst moment on the job, shall we? This issue has resurfaced recently, and Representative Wilson is still waiting for an apology from Kelly (a fact now being pointed out by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, among others). Here's what we wrote about it at the time -- and this was before videotape of the event in question surfaced, which proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Kelly was lying about it.
Donald Trump started this whole ugly mess when he was asked at an impromptu press conference on Monday why he hadn't said a single word about the deadliest military loss the United States has suffered since he became president in the intervening twelve days. Trump responded by insinuating that he did far more than all previous presidents when it came to contacting the Gold Star families of dead soldiers. He later also stated that he had called every family of every soldier who had died in combat since he had become president. Neither of these claims was true, as the media quickly uncovered.
This put the White House on the defensive, scrambling to correct all of Trump's many mistakes. Letters were hastily signed and sent out. Calls were hastily made to (some) Gold Star families. And a $25,000 check was finally sent to a dead soldier's father, a full four months after Trump had promised him the money (and mere hours after the story broke in the Washington Post). No word yet on whether all the Gold Star families have gotten phone calls from Trump yet, but as of midweek there were at least four or five who hadn't heard from him at all.
General Kelly was in the middle of this whirling disaster. Not only because he is Trump's chief of staff, but because he was apparently the source of the notion that Barack Obama hadn't contacted any Gold Star families. Kelly's 29-year-old son was killed in action and he hadn't been called by Obama (although he was invited to a Gold Star families meal at the White House later on and sat at Michelle Obama's table). So Kelly was trotted out in the White House press briefing room in an attempt to get beyond the issue.
Unfortunately for him, he decided to channel his boss, and attacked a congresswoman from the podium. His attack contained two huge lies, neither of which has been yet answered by the White House.
The congresswoman in question, Frederica Wilson, had been a lifelong friend of the Gold Star family. She had mentored the dead soldier and helped him get into the military through a youth outreach program she runs (the "5,000 Role Models of Excellence Project"). She had even been the principal of a school the soldier's father had attended, and had known the family for decades. These people are not just random constituents of a random congresswoman, in other words. This was obvious because she was present with the family when Trump's condolence call came in. She had been invited by them to listen in, in other words.
Since the call, she has been quite vocal over the content of the call, which she called "insensitive" and "horrible." According to her, the pregnant wife of the dead soldier was in tears by the end of the call, not through grief over her loss but rather from the disrespect the president had shown. "He didn't even remember his name," the widow told Representative Wilson.
This was John Kelly's first mistake. During his appearance in front of the press, Kelly stated: "It stuns me that a member of Congress would have listened in on that conversation. It stuns me. I thought at least that was sacred." For the record, on the other end of the phone line, John Kelly was sitting in the room with Trump, listening in to the call. So he's shocked that someone would listen in to a "sacred" call that he himself was listening in to. Got it.
But Kelly didn't stop there. Ignorant of her connections to the family, and apparently still too lazy to research the matter, Kelly has not since backed down from his position that the congresswoman had committed some sort of impropriety by listening to the phone call she had been invited to listen to by the dead soldier's pregnant widow. Even that wasn't enough, though. Kelly, in true Trumpian fashion, then attacked the messenger even further:
And a congresswoman stood up, and in a long tradition of empty barrels making the most noise, stood up there in all of that and talked about how she was instrumental in getting the funding for that building [a Miramar, Fla., FBI building named after two slain FBI agents], and how she took care of her constituents because she got the money, and she just called up President Obama, and on that phone call, he gave the money, the $20 million, to build the building, and she sat down.
Wilson responded, on CNN:
I feel sorry for General Kelly. He has my sympathy for the loss of his son, but he can't just go on TV and lie on me. I was not even in Congress in 2009 when the money for the building was secured, so that's a lie. How dare he!
That's where things stand, today. Trump lies about Gold Star families, lies about all past presidents (but most especially Barack Obama), and was caught in a lie he told to a Gold Star father's face to the tune of $25,000. Kelly was then sent out in the teeth of all these lies and made things worse by telling a few whoppers of his own. And, astonishingly, Sarah Huckabee Sanders is now suggesting that it is "highly inappropriate" to "get into a debate with a four-star Marine general" over whether he had flat-out lied to the press and inaccurately smeared a member of Congress.
The moral of this story is: When you lie down with dogs, don't be surprised when you wake up with fleas. John Kelly has become more than just another enabler of Trump's lies, he is now making up his own lies to supplement them. That sound you just heard was the last shred of Kelly's respectability and trustworthiness flying out the window, in other words.
So much for being the soi-disant "adult in the room," eh? Neither the grieving family nor Congresswoman Wilson has ever received an apology from John Kelly. Even though, as I mentioned, a local television station dug up footage of the building dedication which utterly disproved Kelly's claim.
Maybe that's why Kelly lasted so long -- because in the end, he didn't change Trump as much as Trump changed him. And this isn't the only disappointing moment Kelly had while on the job, just the most disgraceful.
OK, enough public shaming, let's get on with the contest results. We first have to thank nypoet22 for collating all the entries into a nice list, which made it a lot easier to find our winner.
Many entries were on the very short end, so our "worst guess" booby prize goes to TheStig, who guessed that Kelly would leave during the total eclipse of the sun:
I'm in. Next Monday. No particular reason, it's just Total Eclipse Day. Kelly is looking grim outside Trump Tower this pm. Kelly won't get axed, he'll resign in disgust...
Which brings up a tangential question (from his later comment) for TheStig -- how did your eclipse-watching trip go? Did you get clear skies and a good view? Inquiring minds want to know!
In any case, his guess of 8/21/17 was the farthest from what actually happened, although Paula, ListenWhenYouHear, John M from Ct., and altohone also were pretty far off (all of whom guessed before the end of October, 2017). My own guess ("resigns with benign statement") wasn't far behind, as I put my pin in the calendar on 11/12/17, one week after the off-off-year election. Farthest off in the other direction was Don Harris, who guessed Kelly would still be there at the bitter end (1/20/21).
Five people got the year right, but four of them missed how long Kelly would remain. Balthasar picked 1/6/18, predicting a post-holiday exit. Next was nypoet22, who certainly wins the most accurate summation award for his comment: "I think he lasts longer than most people think he will." But his guess of 1/20/18 showed that Kelly lasted even longer than nypoet22 thought.
Both Big Guy and Kick pushed the envelope further out, with their respective guesses. BigGuy had perhaps the most amusing scenario for "how Kelly will leave":
4/1/18 - Jared and Ivanka, after being hip checked into the boards outside the Oval Office one too many times, form an uneasy alliance with the alt-right troika to start a smear campaign against General Kelly. It seems the general has an autographed 8 X 10 of Alec Baldwin on his mantle.
Heh.
Kick went even longer, with his guess of 5/11/18. Although he was off by three-quarters of a year, this guess turned out to be second-best, and so it earns Kick bragging rights for being the runner-up in our contest.
But the winner -- of the longest-running contest ever held at CW.com -- is none other than (...drumroll...) neilm, for his winning entry (that turned out to be pretty close to what actually happened):
8/1/18
Reason: Kelly will resign, using "personal issues" as an excuse after completing a "respectable" length of time in the role. There will be frequent rumors that 45 will fire him but in the end 45 won't have the cojones. By this time his role will be symbolic as all normal CoS power will have been undermined by 45, his family and some of the weird cronies.
Congratulations are in order for neilm (and I'll be contacting you later to get an address to send your prize to). Well done!
Of course, because Kelly has not yet actually left the building, and because Donald Trump seems to be having some trouble getting some poor sap to take the job, there is always an outside chance that we will have to later find another of these bumperstickers on eBay to give to Don Harris. Our original rule was: "The winner will be whomever picks the closest date to Kelly's eventual exit, to be announced after it happens," but the White House is already hedging on when Kelly will actually be leaving. If the search for a new chief of staff drags on long enough (by my hasty calculations, until sometime in October of 2019), then Don Harris will wind up being closest, with his guess of:
Jan. 20,2021.
Unless President Pence fires him before that.
I promise, if this outside chance actually does happen, to make good on my prize-giving by finding another one of these bumperstickers online to give to Don. Oh, and should this eventuality take place, we won't be asking neilm for his prize back, since it is awfully hard to unstick a bumpersticker, once stuck!
Thanks for playing, everyone, and congratulations to our winner once again. Kelly certainly lasted a lot longer than I thought he would, although Trump has still managed to set the record for needing a third chief of staff earlier than any other president.
Call For Year-End Awards Nominations
And finally, it's that time of year again -- we're getting ready for our year-end awards ceremony here, and we're throwing the nominations open to all once again.
Below are the two lists of categories for this two-week event. If it helps, here are the links to our two awards columns from last year: Part 1 and Part 2, in case you want to check to see who won which award last time around.
Without further ado, here's the list for the first week's awards:
Biggest Winner of 2018
Biggest Loser of 2018
Best Politician
Worst Politician
Most Defining Political Moment
Turncoat Of The Year
Most Boring
Most Charismatic
Bummest Rap
Fairest Rap
Best Comeback
Most Original Thinker
Most Stagnant Thinker
Best Photo Op
Worst Photo Op
Enough Already!
Worst Lie
Capitalist Of The Year
Honorable Mention
Person Of The Year
And here is the list for the second week:
Destined For Political Stardom
Destined For Political Oblivion
Best Political Theater
Worst Political Theater
Worst Political Scandal
Most Underreported Story
Most Overreported Story
Biggest Government Waste
Best Government Dollar Spent
Boldest Political Tactic
Best Idea
Worst Idea
Sorry To See You Go
15 Minutes Of Fame
Best Spin
Most Honest Person
Most Overrated
Most Underrated
And, as always, the final category is "Predictions," where you can make wild-eyed predictions about what is going to happen in 2019.
As usual, it's going to be tough to narrow things down in each category, because with Trump in the White House it's a neverending firehose of astonishing events (to put it politely). It's hard to even think in terms of "a whole year" when each week seems to last that long these days. So dig deep and review all of 2018, and let me know what you think. All nominations will receive due consideration, I promise!
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
In a karmic irony, Kelly's punishment may be that he can never leave the job he wants to quit - Tiny can't get a replacement so Kelly has reportedly agreed to stay another month or so...
i personally think pie is the boldest political tactic. when has anyone in the history of politics ever suggested voting based on a pastry?
CW: Although he was off by three-quarters of a year, this guess turned out to be second-best, and so it earns Kick bragging rights for being the runner-up in our contest.
Always the best man, never the groom... and I still get "bragging rights." Oh, boy!
I'm now putting you all on notice that I will use these *unlimited* rights of mine at every possible and conceivable opportunity. *shakes head* :p
But the winner -- of the longest-running contest ever held at CW.com -- is none other than (...drumroll...) neilm, for his winning entry (that turned out to be pretty close to what actually happened).
Neil is such a sneaker… I will be his wingman any time. I already congratulated Neil in June for winning because the handwriting was on the wall long ago... based on simple math... for the majority of us here with the temerity and mental capacity to comprehend science and stuff like that.
Congratulations again, Neil! :)
JL
2
i personally think pie is the boldest political tactic. when has anyone in the history of politics ever suggested voting based on a pastry?
You sound like a man who has never heard of "election cake" a.k.a. "muster cake."
https://tinyurl.com/y7p7x9hq
Don't y'all just love history and pie and cake? ;)
@kick,
on the contrary 'old boy,' mindless devotion to big cake is precisely what our movement is fighting against. since the dawn of our republic was financed by marie antoinette, cake has had its way with the american populace. that needs to end now.
JL
neilm (aka "the sneaker") has "smug mode"* still switched on :)
I'm looking forward to my bumper sticker, but for luck, I'm not sticking it to anything until the deed is done.
CW: I'll email my address using the "Email Chris" link below. Let me know if there are any issues.
*1,000 quantaloos if you recognize the "smug mode" reference?
by the way CW, did you notice that your categories still say 2017? ok, just off the top of my head, here goes:
Biggest Winner of 2018 - nancy pelosi
Biggest Loser of 2018 - scott walker (and his flying monkeys)
Best Politician - brett kavanaugh (let's call him what he is)
Worst Politician - michael avenatti (for all of 2 minutes)
Most Defining Political Moment - christine blasey ford's testimony, and its aftermath
Turncoat Of The Year - manafort, twice and counting!
Most Boring - theresa may
Most Charismatic - michelle obama
Bummest Rap - hillary clinton
Fairest Rap - nc-09 election fraud
Best Comeback - xochitl torres small
Honorable Mention - george w. bush (i think after two years of trump we really do see him more as his father's son and less as cheney's puppet)
Person Of The Year - robert mueller
ok, out of time now, I'll come back later to suggest some others.
JL
CW- I gratefully and humbly accept my award. I'll see you all at the award ceremony and after party!
The eclipse went fine, the 4 hr drive to the closest point on the line of totality was not especially scenic and there was about 50% cloud cover the whole day. A gap opened up at right moment and I got a good show. There was some mucking about to find a good viewing position - I was in deep rural (trying to minimize crowds/traffic/ parking delays) and tree canopy was an issue. GPS was helpful. Some Scotch was consumed. I drove back home.
nypoet22 -
The perils of cut-n-pasting... OK, fixed it... mea culpa!
:-)
It's when I get it wrong in the actual year-end articles that it's really embarrassing!
-CW
Cohen gets 36 months.
Plus some fines and forfeitures.
Today's best new thing is:
The Bottomless Pinocchio!!!!
No, this is not Disney Cartoon Porn (shame on you).
It is a new rating in the Washington Post's Fact Checker column.
As the WP explains it:
"That dubious distinction will be awarded to politicians who repeat a false claim so many times that they are, in effect, engaging in campaigns of disinformation.
A BP is not easy to win:
"The bar for the Bottomless Pinocchio is high: The claims must have received three or four Pinocchios from The Fact Checker, and they must have been repeated at least 20 times. Twenty is a sufficiently robust number that there can be no question the politician is aware that his or her facts are wrong. The list of Bottomless Pinocchios will be maintained on its own landing page."
The only individual to qualify for a BP is - wait for- Donald F'ing Trump.
WAPO:
"The Fact Checker has not identified statements from any other current elected official who meets the standard other than Trump. In fact, 14 statements made by the president immediately qualify for the list."
One other thing...if Trump thinks he can avoid jail time by staying in office long enough to avoid prosecution, he has forgotten a handy legal device known as the sealed indictment.
More breaking news:
The British bookmakers have downgraded PM Theresa May to Theresa Maybe.
And now we learn David Pecker of AMI (National Enquirer, etc.) has an agreement with SDNY to not be penalized in exchange for admitting he?/AMC paid $150,000 to the OTHER woman - not Stormy Daniels - to keep her quiet before the election.
List one. As there are 20.
1. Stormy...Her career got a nice bump in '18
2. Warren...Poor Liz took the bait, now she's getting it from all sides.
3. Harris...She really stepped to the plate during Mr. K's grilling, being days in preparation, a splendid time would be had by all.
4. Hatch...hands down the most repellant creature in creation. Seems to him moral turpitude is in the eye of the beholder.
5. One word...Helsinki.
6. Cohen...easily out-grassed all other contenders.
7. Pence...Duller than dishwater, frequently checked for a pulse.
8. Sen Kennedy...Maybe because he's always got a catchy saying, or the way he says it. He's a constant source of amusement.
9. Mrs and family Pence...theirs is a lifetime award.
10. Bush 43...He's earned back some popularity in '18, took both his parents dropping dead, but I knew he had it in him.
11. The Mooch...It's not everyday you get run out of town and then become a fixture on both Fox and CNN. ( he gets my 'fart in a phone booth' award for the same reason)
12. Dr Ford...Anyone who can sit in front of a congressional committee and say 'indelible in the hippocampus' with a straight face, deserves at least a mention.
13. Grassley...Although, what goes though that belfry is anyone's guess.
14. Any number of group photo's of the Obama's and the Bush's...just to wind up Trump.
15. Anything with Eric Trump in it, Darwin could never have imagined such a creature, at least not standing upright.
16. Two words...well one word misspelt twice. SMOCKING. ffs.
17. Back to the halcyon days of Helsinki...'Would' or 'wouldn't' we see that as a huge pork pie? (this category will be interesting to monitor, there have been some whoppers.)
18. Bezos...Like him or not, you have to admire his wallet.
19. Michael Avenatti...It takes a special kind of person to so utterly crash and burn on a national stage in such short a time. At least the Mooch has his millions to comfort him, Avenatti will likely find himself on the business end of Stormy Daniels law suit before his fall from grace is complete.
2o. Considering 2018 saw all his Christmases come at once...Vlad the Putin takes that award. Let's review, shall we; America is being run by clown and is consuming itself. Europe is a mess with populism and Brexit. Ukraine is in a vice. Between Iran, Saudi and Syria, Russian energy is booming...it's tough to dig up a shitty end of a stick Putin got to hold in 2018.
LL&P
I was all set to hyperventilate when I read the final FTP column. Then i read that I will be able to relish instead another CW favorite of mine, the year-end lists.
My nominations:
Biggest Winner of 2018 - California, whose voters effectively erased their Republicans
Biggest Loser of 2018 - Manafort - reputation in tatters, forfeited $$, and now, because he was caught in new lies, facing a lifetime in jail.
Best Politician - Pelosi
Worst Politician - Rand Paul, who gets lots of press for his 'opposition', then votes with Trump every time
Most Defining Political Moment - Kavanaugh hearings
Turncoat Of The Year - Cohen (too easy)
Most Boring - Lindsey Graham
Most Charismatic - Beto! Beto! (too easy)
Bummest Rap - Elizabeth Warren revealing her DNA results and the press highlighting the Cherokee Nation's statements and ignoring Trump's refusal to PAY UP!
Fairest Rap - Trump is a liar, an adulterer, and a tax-dodger (too easy)
Best Comeback - House Democrats
Most Original Thinker - Sen Hirono of Hawaii
Most Stagnant Thinker - Lindsey Graham
Best Photo Op - Trump-Pelosi-Schumer shutdown trainwreck
Worst Photo Op - Trump and Putin in Helsinki
Enough Already! - Scaramucci and Lewandowski
Worst Lie - FOX News and 'the caravan'
Capitalist Of The Year - Putin
Honorable Mention - Gillum and Abrams
Person Of The Year - Mueller
My nominations for the second list:
Destined For Political Stardom - Andrew Gillum
Destined For Political Oblivion - Kevin McCarty of California. He withdrew from the House Speaker race because of hints of a sex scandal. We haven't heard the last of that.
Best Political Theater - Ocasio-Cortez slapping down her critics
Worst Political Theater - Avenatti
Worst Political Scandal - Republicans ignoring probable voter fraud in NC
Most Underreported Story - Russian money funneled to the NRA in 2016
Most Overreported Story - petty slights during McCain's funeral
Biggest Government Waste - U S troops on the southern border
Best Government Dollar Spent - Salaries of the scientists who continue to study Global Warming "weathering" the criticism of Trump
Boldest Political Tactic - the woman who confronted a stunned Sen Flake in the elevator
Best Idea - anti-gerrymandering movement in preparation for 2020
Worst Idea - guns in schools
Sorry To See You Go - Jeff Sessions (I assume this is ironic)
15 Minutes Of Fame - Meghan Kelly, a little longer than 15 minutes, but no one on the left or right wants to see her on TV again
Best Spin - Micheal Flynn's lawyers hinting at entrapment by the FBI because he didn't show signs of lying
Most Honest Person - Donald Trump Jr - he just can't help himself!
Most Overrated - Beto O'Rourke, darling of the media and the left...but HE LOST, not exactly an argument for Presidential aspirations in 2020.
Most Underrated - Tom Perez. He is under withering criticism - mostly from the Sanders cult members - but soldiers on.
JL
5
on the contrary 'old boy,' mindless devotion to big cake is precisely what our movement is fighting against.
Touché mon frere. It is quite the dullest recipe I have ever seen for cake, to be sure.
since the dawn of our republic was financed by marie antoinette, cake has had its way with the american populace. that needs to end now.
All that spending by Madame Déficit and France to help free the republic from the grasp of a Mad King... and for what? Inspiration for the "little people"! Alas, poor Maria Antonia; she never had a head for business. ;)
TS
15
The Bottomless Pinocchio!!!!
No, this is not Disney Cartoon Porn (shame on you).
*laughs*
One other thing...if Trump thinks he can avoid jail time by staying in office long enough to avoid prosecution, he has forgotten a handy legal device known as the sealed indictment.
Sealed indictment!? Well, I never! ;) *smile*
Biggest Winner of 2018: Women... and therefore democracy
Biggest Loser of 2018: Scott Walker -- Honey badger don't care; it just takes what it wants. ;)
Best Politician: Barack Obama -- for reasons that may never be made public
Worst Politician: Spineless GOPer -- take your pick
Most Defining Political Moment: Helsinki, Finland
Turncoat Of The Year: Benedict Donald, in perpetuity
Most Boring: Mike Pence (and most fake)... close second to Sarah Huckabee Sanders (yawn)
Most Charismatic:
Male -- Beto O'Rourke
Female -- Michelle Obama
Bummest Rap: Kanye West's music
Fairest Rap: Kanye West's utter nonsensical BS throughout 2018 and subsequent meltdown
Best Comeback: "Shrub" a.k.a. Bush 43... Trump is making W. look awesome. Nixon is making quite a comeback too, although for other reasons.
Most Original Thinker: Is there one?
Most Stagnant Thinker: Most of them.
Best Photo Op: "Hair Force One" ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtCLwYFRp4o
Worst Photo Op: Trump emasculated by Putin in Helsinki, Finland
Enough Already!: Trump's constant moving of the goalposts
Worst Lie: Trump's incessant whining about "fake news" that's factual and Trump's subsequent moving of the goalposts
Capitalist Of The Year: Jeff Bezos
Honorable Mention: Bezos, Jeff
Person Of The Year: Robert Swan Mueller III
And here is the list for the second week:
Destined For Political Stardom: Beto O'Rourke
Destined For Political Oblivion: Donald Trump
Best Political Theater: Brett Kavanaugh -- Calendars and 99 bottles of beer on the wall
Worst Political Theater: Brett Kavanaugh -- Multiple lies and cries under oath
Worst Political Scandal: Benedict Donald, Putin's bitch
Most Underreported Story: Rosneft/Gazprom
Most Overreported Story: Trump tweets
Biggest Government Waste: The midterms "scare-a-van"
Best Government Dollar Spent: Office of Special Counsel, Bobby Three Sticks Mueller
Boldest Political Tactic: N/A
Best Idea:
Worst Idea: The Wall
Sorry To See You Go: John McCain and Lindsey Graham's conscience
15 Minutes Of Fame: Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III
Best Spin: Kellyanne Conway
Most Honest Person: Mr. Kellyanne Conway, stay tuned
Most Overrated: Devin "Effing" Nunes
Most Underrated: Barack Obama -- for reasons that may never become public