It's Actually A Four-Person Race At Best, Mayor Pete
Once again we're going to take another deep dive into the polling for the Democratic presidential field. We were inspired to do so because this weekend we passed a milestone -- we are now less than a full year away from the 2020 general election. And we're only about three months away from when the first voters get to have their say on the frozen tundra of the Iowa plains.
So let's just dig in to the numbers, to see where things stand, shall we?
Campaign News
Two candidates have exited the contest since the last time we examined the full Democratic field. First, Tim Ryan left the race, surprising many who hadn't even been aware he was in the running in the first place. The second exit was a little more prominent, as Beto O'Rourke hung up his spurs last week in dramatic fashion (his announcement was totally unexpected by anyone on his staff, reportedly). While it does seem like a lot of folks have now left the race, we are still left with 17 (!) candidates -- which, even without all the candidates who have already dropped out, still equals the biggest field the Republicans ever had back in 2016.
O'Rourke disappointed many inside-the-Beltway types, who had always pictured him riding a white steed into the race and lassoing the hearts of the Democratic electorate. Unfortunately for him, his best day was the day he announced. Since then, he ran an eclectic campaign that never really seemed to go much of anywhere, no matter how many miles he personally drove. What most of the pundits failed to ever acknowledge was that while Beto's run for Senate in Texas was impressive, in the end he lost. To Ted Cruz. So jumping on various tabletops and waving your arms around only goes so far, even in the Lone Star State.
The fourth debate has come and gone, and it seems that Pete Buttigieg won the biggest benefit from it. I have to admit I didn't see this coming at the time, but he has been the only one to see his polling numbers shift favorably since.
Elizabeth Warren has finally rolled out her Medicare For All plan, and it's beginning to seem like she will never be able to make the Beltway crowd happy with anything she does. Before she rolled her plan out, the constant refrain from the punditocracy was: "Although we don't hold any other candidate to this standard on any other particular issue, why won't Warren admit she's going to raise taxes on Joe and Jane Sixpack?" Astonishingly, if last weekend's Sunday political chatfests are any indication, after Warren did release her plan, complete with her "pay fors," the pundits again spoke with one voice: "Warren has made a huge mistake by releasing her plan of how she's going to pay for Medicare For All -- she never should have done so!" I mean, these people just will never be happy with anything Warren does. My guess is that they still resent her for not immediately ending her campaign back when they all declared she was dead in the water after her D.N.A. test. She has proven them incredibly wrong, and they still resent her for doing so. That's my best guess, at any rate.
Kamala Harris is getting more and more desperate as time goes by. She announced she's pulling all her resources out of New Hampshire -- letting all her staff go -- and doubling down on Iowa. But she doesn't seem to be moving the needle much there, either, so perhaps she'll be the first to drop out between Iowa and New Hampshire, next year.
Joe Biden also introduced a few notes of desperation, which is odd since he's still atop almost all of the polls. But after a weak quarter of fundraising, he decided that having a super PAC raise gobs of unrestricted cash was just fine and dandy with him -- a stance at odds with many of the other candidates in the race. And after a particularly sobering Iowa poll, his campaign is now damping down expectations for the state, saying it really doesn't matter who wins Iowa, because it's really not that big a deal. Good luck selling that one to the media, Joe.
OK, that's about it for big campaign news, so let's move on to the candidates' standings.
Oh, as usual, we're taking all our polling data from the Real Clear Politics rolling "poll of polls" average. However, they've decided to make the charts as volatile as possible by only including a single week's worth of polling in that rolling average (rather than their normal two-week window). So when you look at their chart, keep in mind that they've intentionally made it spikier than it really should be.
Top Tier
As always, the dividing lines between these tiers are pretty arbitrary, and could be drawn in various different ways. In fact, eventually we'll likely move to a two-tier system (rather than three), because that does seem to be how this race is shaping up. But for now, we're going to stick to three for the time being.
The biggest question about how to divide things this time around is where to put Pete Buttigieg. He's doing almost well enough to be considered a frontrunner, but we have decided he hasn't quite gotten there, so we'll have more on him in the next section.
This leaves the top tier a three-way race between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. The notable shift here is that Warren has solidly taken over second place, moving Bernie back into third. For a while, the two were battling it out for second, but while Warren improved her base, Bernie has stayed largely stagnant.
Joe Biden still leads the race, and this week his numbers are on the upswing. Biden has been fluctuating between 26 and 32 percent since late June, and he is right in the middle of this range currently, with a 29.1 percent average. He had seen a downswing recently, but has improved roughly two points after the past few polls. This may have been due to his recent appearance on 60 Minutes, which was a pretty good interview for Biden.
However, for the first time we're going to look not only at the national numbers but also at the polling in Iowa, the first state to caucus (which is fewer than 100 days away now). This is where things get a lot more worrisome for Biden, because the most recent poll (New York Times/Siena) surprisingly put Biden in fourth place in Iowa. Warren topped the poll with 22 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders at 19, Pete Buttigieg at 18, and Biden at 17 percent. Obviously, that's a pretty tight grouping between second, third, and fourth, but even so it's got to be making the Biden campaign nervous. Biden was polling at the top of the Iowa heap less than two months ago, at 28.5 percent, so this represents a big slide for him.
Getting back to national polling, Elizabeth Warren is still in second place, but her standing has fallen off in the last couple of weeks. She hit a high of 26.8 percent at the start of October (she even bested Biden's average for a single day), but since then has sunk back down to 20.6 percent. Once again, the polling averages are a little more volatile than they really should be, and Warren seems right now to be somewhere around 23 percent in most of the individual polls, so there's a real possibility she'll bounce back a bit in the next week or so. But currently, her trendline is heading sharply downwards.
Warren, however, has had the best ground game in Iowa all along. Even the other campaigns openly admit this, and her standing there reflects her early and sustained investment in the state. For all the other candidates who are desperate for a big Iowa finish, Warren may actually get the biggest boost of any of them if she manages to win the caucuses early next year. Warren's also polling pretty well in New Hampshire, and if she cleans up in the first two races she may be seen as unstoppable. We're a long way from that point, though.
Bernie Sanders has proven the loyalty of his base, once again. He dipped in a very minor way when he had a heart attack on the campaign trail, but since then has bounced right back -- both physically and in the polling. He's had the most consistent polling of any candidate in the race (well, except those polling very consistently below a single percentage point), and his numbers fluctuate in the high teens. The punditry will never ever admit this, however, because virtually every time Bernie's name comes up in a political discussion on the news, it is almost always paired with "of course, he's been sinking in the polls recently." This has never been true and it still isn't true. His poll numbers move around a few points up or down, but he's solidly occupied the range from about 15 points to about 19 points during the whole race. He's currently at 16.6, which is pretty much par for Bernie's course.
His numbers are almost exactly the same in Iowa, as well. He's been solidly in either second or third place in the state all along, hovering in almost exactly the same range (or a few points above) that he sees nationally. Bernie may not be expanding his base much, but he certainly has their loyalty. If even a heart attack didn't eat into this support, then it's a safe bet that nothing is going to, and he'll be polling in exactly the same range next January.
Second Tier
We're going to draw the bottom line for the second tier this time around at an average of at least two percent. This leaves us with four candidates in the second tier: Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, and Amy Klobuchar.
As we mentioned earlier, there's a strong case to be made that Mayor Pete is actually at the bottom of the top tier rather than at the top of the middle tier. He is the first candidate other than the frontrunners to actually post double digits in national polling -- within the past few weeks (after the fourth debate), Buttigieg posted 10 percent in two separate polls. Other than Biden, Warren, and Sanders, nobody else has managed this feat in months.
However, Buttigieg's numbers aren't all quite that high. His average currently stands at 7.1 percent, which feels about right when you examine his individual polls. The good news for him, though, is that this represents significant movement, really the only such significant movement -- other than Warren's rise -- in the past two months. While everyone else has either gotten worse or stayed the same, Mayor Pete is on a serious upswing. His debate performance impressed a lot of people out there, obviously.
Buttigieg has seen even higher highs earlier in the race, however. He hit 7.8 percent in mid-June, and his best number all around was 8.4 percent back in May. He's down a tad bit right now, but he hit 7.7 percent at the very end of October, and he seems to be enjoying a resurgence in support, so it remains to be seen how high he can go. He did have a little gaffe recently, when he quite arrogantly predicted that the race would soon become a two-person race between him and Warren, which may of the other candidates ridiculed (Buttigieg did quickly try to walk this back, it should be noted).
But Buttigieg has been really good at raising money, which has given him a huge war chest to spend in Iowa. He's flooding the airwaves and social media with his ads, and they seem to be doing him a lot of good there. At this point, he could easily come in third or even second in the state, which could springboard him into contention in the states that follow. But even with his Iowa numbers, I can't consider him a real frontrunner until he breaks the double-digit ceiling in his national polling average, personally. He's getting there, but he's not quite there yet.
Harris is only polling at roughly half of Buttigieg's average, chalking up 3.6 percent support this time around. This continues a long slow slide downward from the highs she experienced after the first debate. As previously mentioned, she seems increasingly desperate, which is pretty obvious if you watch a recent interview of her. Also, she's still laughing too long and too loudly at her own jokes, which still seems forced to me.
Rounding out the bottom of the middle tier are Andrew Yang at 2.8 percent and Amy Klobuchar at 2.6 percent. They'll be in the next few debates, but absent a breakout performance by either one of them, they don't seem to be going anywhere at all in the polls.
Third Tier
And then, as always, there's everyone else. Beto O'Rourke, before he dropped out, was squarely in this category with only 1.6 percent support.
At the top of the big pack at the back are Cory Booker, with 1.9 percent support, and Tulsi Gabbard, with 1.8 percent. Everyone else is polling below a single percentage point. And there are still eight more names to go. How many of them can you name off the top of your head? Probably not all eight (we had to look up the seventh and eighth names ourselves, we fully admit). Here are all the folks still deluding themselves that they'll be the ones to take on Trump next year: Tom Steyer, Michael Bennet, Julián Castro, Marianne Williamson, John Delaney, Steve Bullock, Joe Sestak, and Wayne Messam.
Conclusions
Sorry, Mayor Pete, but it isn't anywhere close to a two-person race at this point, and even if it was you'd be out of the running down in fourth.
Was that too snarky? Well, his bold prediction deserves no less, at this particular point.
The real untold story of the race at this point is a pretty boring one, which is why the pundits haven't paid it much attention. Who wants to read a headline which states: "Things Pretty Much The Same," after all? The big stories the pundits aren't telling is that two candidates -- Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders -- are remarkably consistent and have held onto their supporters through thick and thin. While Warren and Buttigieg have shown movement upwards and Harris has slid downwards, Joe and Bernie have remained almost exactly where they were at the beginning of the summer. That, even though it sounds kind of boring, is truly remarkable. Biden fluctuates in the 26-32 percent rage, while Bernie does the same thing in the 15-19 percent range. Occasionally they have fallen either slightly above or slightly below these numbers, but overall they've been incredibly resilient.
The bottom of Bernie's range is important, and will become more so as time goes by. In the Democratic primaries, no candidate who receives less than 15 percent support will get any delegates at all. Buttigieg could pull 14 percent in New Hampshire or even California, and he'd wind up with nothing to show for it at all. All four top candidates have the money reserves to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday, so there likely won't be any shakeup at the top by someone dropping out until at least then. And from Harris on down, the rest of the candidates are so far down in the polls that even if they do drop out it won't boost any other candidate by all that much.
Pete Buttigieg would have gotten a lot less snark if he had been more honest in his assessment of the race, because for him it is actually really good news. He is on the verge of turning the race into a four-person contest, which is big news indeed. Until Warren's rise began, it was shaping up to be a two-man race between Bernie and Biden, but now it's looking more and more like there'll be four solid candidates for the voters to choose between.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
CW: What most of the pundits failed to ever acknowledge was that while Beto's run for Senate in Texas was impressive, in the end he lost. To Ted Cruz. So jumping on various tabletops and waving your arms around only goes so far, even in the Lone Star State.
Oh, come on now! I could say the very same thing about a 2016 run for the presidency and how far that wagging right finger of Bernie Sanders only got him so far, even in America, but I doubt you'd describe him as a failure.
What even fewer pundits fail to ever acknowledge is that a candidate doesn't have to always win in order to effect change and make a huge difference... very much like Beto's run for the Senate in Texas and the buzz he generated therein being a huge factor in helping to flip quite a number of House seats in Congress and the Lone Star State as well as a whole lot of money and time being spent by the GOP in order to defend that Texas senate seat that would have naturally been better spent somewhere/anywhere else to defend Republicans who got subsequently flipped.
The GOP isn't used to having to perform very much heavy lifting at all in order to defend their positions in Texas, and thanks to Beto and the collective efforts of many other Texans, the nonvoters in Texas who used to operate under the assumption that their votes wouldn't generally make a difference are now on notice that they will. So there's that. :)
Chris didn't describe him as a failure.
What even fewer pundits fail to ever acknowledge is that a candidate doesn't have to always win in order to effect change and make a huge difference...
Chris, of course, isn't one of them.
CW: Elizabeth Warren has finally rolled out her Medicare For All plan, and it's beginning to seem like she will never be able to make the Beltway crowd happy with anything she does. Before she rolled her plan out, the constant refrain from the punditocracy was: "Although we don't hold any other candidate to this standard on any other particular issue, why won't Warren admit she's going to raise taxes on Joe and Jane Sixpack?"
Oh, don't sell the "Beltway crowd" short now; I believe they will definitely hold another candidate to that very same standard, and I'll give you exactly one guess as to who that candidate might be. *grin*
… a little Beto-sensitive, Kick? :)
Elizabeth Miller
2
Chris didn't describe him as a failure.
What part of the sentiment "he lost. To Ted Cruz" was confusing at all?
I'm teasing Chris, Elizabeth, and I would wager without hesitation that he's got the presence of mind to realize that fact... so please do your very best to try not to get your knickers in a twist over it. *laughs*
Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!
The devolutionary American media - all parts of it - aren't capable of understanding the resiliency of a Biden presidential campaign in 2020, much less report on it.
Elizabeth Miller
3
Chris, of course, isn't one of them.
Well, I don't consider Chris a "pundit" at all, but I can see you went there. *laughs*
The trouble with this blog's comments sections, generally speaking, is that so few contributors here are able to resist the bait.
Which always tends toward tedium rather than enlightenment.
Elizabeth Miller
5
… a little Beto-sensitive, Kick? :)
Nope... I'm a Biden primary supporter and a "vote Blue no matter who" advocate. I was simply remembering how much Beto was able to help collectively flip quite a few congressional seats in Texas and change the makeup of the House of Representatives in Washington, DC, in a big way.. and hoping he'll have a lasting effect.
That Texodus wherein Republicans are retiring in large quantities in 2020 isn't happening in a vacuum, for sure. :)
Elizabeth Miller
7
The devolutionary American media - all parts of it - aren't capable of understanding the resiliency of a Biden presidential campaign in 2020, much less report on it.
Be careful how you toss around those words "all" and "media" since people will obviously denote your hypocrisy. *laughs*
All Democrats are going to have to be a strong united force to beat Trump.
I just hope he keeps his mouth shut - at least until after next November - about 'taking peoples' guns away' because that will have a lasting effect, indeed and not in a good way.
Elizabeth Miller
9
The trouble with this blog's comments sections, generally speaking, is that so few contributors here are able to resist the bait.
That makes you the "bait" in the instant scenario.
Which always tends toward tedium rather than enlightenment.
Tonight's "bait" has declared itself tedious and unenlightening, and it'll sure as hell get no argument from me there. :)
Non-serious. I see there is little hope for this place. :(
Elizabeth Miller
14
Non-serious.
Quite serious.
I see there is little hope for this place. :(
Well then, you can either fish, cut bait, or take this poster's advice:
Hey CW,
Gotta ask this, “Something about Pete Buttigieg bugs you, doesn’t it?”
It just seems like you couldn’t help but returning to making critical comments about Mayor Pete after you had reviewed his campaign and you’d moved on to other candidates. I don’t say this as a Buttigieg Backer, but as a faithful consumer of your articles. Don’t get me wrong, I like Mayor Pete — but he hasn’t impressed me as much as Warren has so far.
We all have people that rub us the wrong way, and I just kept getting that sense from you about Mayor Pete when I read this article
Pete Buttigieg doesn't - how did you put it? - rub me the wrong way.
I just understand that he isn't a serious candidate and he has lots of company in that regard.
What most of the pundits failed to ever acknowledge was that while Beto's run for Senate in Texas was impressive, in the end he lost.
Yes.. Many of those here ALSO failed to acknowledge that fact as noteworthy...
Several times I pointed out the fact that, for all of Beto's swooning fans here, he STILL lost..
Ya'all came back with various prostrations of "It doesn't matter!! He came close!!! In TEXAS!!!" etc etc etc...
It oft times takes a bit, but eventually ya come around to admitting that I was dead on ballz accurate on just about everything.. :D
I mean, these people just will never be happy with anything Warren does.
Are you sensing the same pattern here that I am sensing?? :D
"Hay there Kettle!! I would like ya to meet Mr Pot!!"
er.... no pun intended... :D
The real untold story of the race at this point is a pretty boring one, which is why the pundits haven't paid it much attention. Who wants to read a headline which states: "Things Pretty Much The Same," after all?
Oh com'now.. You KNOW that the media could gin up some excitement if they wanted to..
Why are you afraid to state the FACTS and reality???
The Dumbocrats boneheaded faux impeachment coup is sucking all the media attention away from the boneheaded Dumbocrat candidates..
Once again, I must point out the sad contrast between old fun Weigantian and new HHPTDS infused Weigantia..
The hard and fast rule around here these days is "NO ONE WILL SPEAK ILL OF THE DEMOCRAT PARTY"
Of course, rules don't apply to me... :D
But you have reached a mile-stone.. You only mentioned President Trump ONE time!!!
Kewpie doll for u!!! :D
"And the last one is Lord Yu"
"Yu??"
"Don't. Please.. Every pun, every joke.. Done to death.. Seriously"
-Stargate SG-1
Oh, come on now! I could say the very same thing about a 2016 run for the presidency and how far that wagging right finger of Bernie Sanders only got him so far, even in America, but I doubt you'd describe him as a failure.
What even fewer pundits fail to ever acknowledge is that a candidate doesn't have to always win in order to effect change and make a huge difference... very much like Beto's run for the Senate in Texas and the buzz he generated therein being a huge factor in helping to flip quite a number of House seats in Congress and the Lone Star State as well as a whole lot of money and time being spent by the GOP in order to defend that Texas senate seat that would have naturally been better spent somewhere/anywhere else to defend Republicans who got subsequently flipped.
The GOP isn't used to having to perform very much heavy lifting at all in order to defend their positions in Texas, and thanks to Beto and the collective efforts of many other Texans, the nonvoters in Texas who used to operate under the assumption that their votes wouldn't generally make a difference are now on notice that they will. So there's that. :)
"Amazing.. Everything you just said there was wrong"
-Luke Skywalker
Very typical Victoria comment.
A whole heaping helping of bullshit with not a SINGLE fact to support her conclusions.. :D
Totally hero-worship and utterly non-serious
I just hope he keeps his mouth shut - at least until after next November - about 'taking peoples' guns away' because that will have a lasting effect, indeed and not in a good way.
Oh that ship has sailed my friend..
The ads have already been written..
President Trump and the GOP are going to nail the Democrats to the wall as nothing but a bunch of gun-confiscaters and 2nd Amendment haters.. :D
Liz,
Non-serious. I see there is little hope for this place. :(
What comes around, goes around..
The haters will soon leave.. We've gotten rid of quite a few of them as of late.. More well follow..
Maybe after their gone, some of the Weigantian Founders will return..
We have hope, eh? :D
Trump's pure, brazen contempt for Congress is on full display
https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opinion/article/Trump-s-pure-brazen-contempt-for-Congress-is-on-14809452.php
Why yes! Yes it is!! And THAT is why patriotic Americans love him so much!
When you people always spew ya'all's fact-less bullshit that Trump's support is "waning" or "falling" I just have to laugh my ass off..
The FACTS and the REALITY clearly prove beyond any doubt..
Trump's re-election is in the bag and likely to be a LANDSLIDE to boot!! :D
Troubles, what troubles? Trump basks in populist love
Lexington (United States) (AFP) - Taking the stage in a packed Kentucky arena to the strains of America's unofficial patriotic anthem, "God Bless the USA," Donald Trump didn't look like a man in trouble.
Harried by impeachment proceedings, yes. Beset by foreign policy worries, yes. Accused of everything from sexual assault to incompetent White House management, yes.
But Trump resembled a man younger than his 73 years and considerably happier than a president likely to become only the third in history tarnished by impeachment.
The ear splitting cheers from the crowd of around 20,000 in Lexington's Rupp Arena explained why.
Dressed in red "make America great again" baseball caps and carrying "Trump 2020" placards, this hardest of the hardcore Trump base was delirious even before the president took the stage.
https://news.yahoo.com/troubles-troubles-trump-basks-populist-love-020104750.html
Yep.. There ain't no waning here.. :D
Remember the Michael Flynn case ya'all crowed about???
Flynn attorney demands FBI search 'Sentinel' database for missing, 'manipulated' witness reports
Michael Flynn's lawyer on Monday demanded in a court filing that the FBI thoroughly search its internal "Sentinel database" and turn over "every" document in which agents described their critical January 2017 White House interview with the former national security adviser, after it emerged last month that FBI officials had apparently manipulated the so-called "302" witness report in the case weeks after the interview.
Flynn's attorney, Sidney Powell, also asserted that separate handwritten notes from the interview drafted by since-fired FBI agent Peter Strzok and another agent are plainly inconsistent with one another, as well as the final FBI 302 that underpinned Flynn's guilty plea for one count of making false statements to investigators.
Powell noted in the filing that she will file a motion seeking to have the case against Flynn thrown out because of "egregious government misconduct." Most courts agree that the Supreme Court "would find that the government has an obligation to disclose exculpatory evidence at the plea stage," Powell wrote, adding that the government had deliberately manipulated its witness reports to secure a guilty plea.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flynn-attorneys-demand-fbi-provide-all-flynn-interview-drafts-after-evidence-surfaces-fbi-manipulated-docs
Once again, we have the CRIMINAL and TREASONOUS conduct of Obama sycophants in the FBI and elsewhere, committing crimes to force General Flynn to confess to non-existent crimes..
Once again, you Trump/America haters are going to LOSE in the courts...
But hay... The GOOD news for ya'all is that ya'all are used to all the LOSING.... :D
In the meantime, Powell argued there was no excuse for the FBI not to immediately produce the comprehensive "redaction history, audit trail, and metadata" for the Flynn 302, which the Sentinel system should automatically maintain.
"The FBI Sentinel system can retrieve any draft," Powell wrote. "Drafts are numerically serialized when placed in the system. Those numbers—apparently redacted from the 302 drafts that have been produced—would probably provide further information."
The government has argued the 302 report shows that Flynn lied to Strzok and another agent concerning his communications with Russia's ambassador on two matters: a United Nations vote on Israel, as well as the Obama administration's sanctions against Russia.
But, just a day before the fateful Jan. 24, 2017 Flynn White House interview, The Washington Post ran a story based on multiple U.S. intelligence sources openly stating that the FBI had wiretapped Flynn's calls with the Russian ambassador, reviewed them, and found no wrongdoing.
And the handwritten notes from both Strzok and the other agent indicated they did not detect any physical signs that Flynn was lying to them, Powell observed -- frustrating agents' allegedly "pretextual" efforts to trap Flynn, who had made powerful enemies in Washington under the Obama administration, on a process crime.
It was all a witch hunt.. From the word GO...
And now Democrats are going to pay the price.. :D
Washington Nationals' Stephen Strasburg denies snubbing Trump at White House
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/stephen-strasburg-trump-white-house-world-series-washington-nationals
Once again, Democrats create their own "truth"...
The FACTS, of course, are completely different.. With Democrats, the FACTS *ALWAYS* differ from Dumbocrat "truth"... :D
And more facts to show how California is going the way of Venezuela...
California’s ‘Woke’ Prop 47 Doomed Cities With Crime Rings And Theft
Since the passage of the infamous Prop 47 five years ago, then marketed by California Democrats as the “Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act,” theft has increased across the state, as organized crime rings have transformed ordinary shoplifting into a lucrative and sophisticated operation. It’s likely no coincidence that San Francisco now has the highest rate of property crime of America’s twenty largest cities.
Passed in 2014, Prop 47 was allegedly designed to emphasize rehabilitation and keep non-violent offenders out of the state’s already packed prisons by reducing certain non-violent felonies to mere misdemeanors. For instance, a thief can now steal twice as much as he or she formerly could before facing a felony charge. But thieves and organized crime gangs capitalized on this loophole. In other words, Prop 47 is now a mechanism for gangs to immunize themselves from felony charges. In cities like Vacaville, CA, just outside of the state’s capital, theft has more than doubled, and police believe Prop 47 is to blame.
https://thefederalist.com/2019/11/01/californias-woke-prop-47-doomed-cities-with-crime-rings-and-theft/
Leave it to Democrats to frak up just about everything they touch...
:eyeroll:
When I lived in San Francisco’s fabled Bernal Heights, I was instructed to empty my car each night to discourage thieves from smashing my windows. There were some evenings I would forget after a long commute home, and I would hold my breath walking to my vehicle in the morning, always relieved to see that the windows were still intact (I detail my San Francisco trials here). If California voters are smart, perhaps San Francisco’s next generation of residents won’t have to feel terrorized by the constant barrage of petty crime.
California is a shit-hole of Democrat incompetence and outright greed...
No wonder people are leaving the US's Venezuela by the millions...
Looks like it's going to be MICHALE DOMINATION all day today.. :D
Oh what a FRABJOUS day!! :D
The 10 most vulnerable House members in 2020: Democrats dominate
Majority on defense after significant gains in last year’s midterms
One year out from the 2020 elections, the most vulnerable member of the House is the Oklahoma Democrat whose upset win surprised even astute politicos last fall. She is joined by a California Republican who is under indictment and numerous Democrats running in districts President Donald Trump easily won in 2016.
Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win control of the House, and they see their path back to the majority running through so-called Trump districts that slipped from the party’s grasp in the midterms. Whether they succeed depends on next year’s political climate and the strength of their candidates. In some districts, the GOP has worked hard to recruit more diverse challengers, especially after Democrats’ success electing women last year.
https://www.rollcall.com/news/one-year-democrats-dominate-10-vulnerable-house-members-2020
Looks like it's a sure bet that Democrats will lose the House in 2020...
GOP only needs 19 seats and twice that is available from Dumbocrats made vulnerable by their faux impeachment coup support..
Goodbye, Beto O'Rourke. What a sad end to a pointless campaign
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/03/goodbye-beto-orourke-what-a-sad-end-to-a-pointless-campaign
About the **ONLY** thing that Beto accomplished was to give the GOP the perfect weapon to utterly decimate Democrats with.. :D
After the initial burst of publicity, Beto fizzled quickly. His poll numbers never got out of single digits, and at first he didn’t seem to know what he stood for or why he stood for it. Eventually, he hit upon a signature issue: gun control. But his provocative rhetoric—“Hell yeah, we’re going to take your AR-15”—seemed to backfire entirely, and he was accused of “hurting the cause” and even “single-handedly dooming a gun control bill.” He continued to lack a following outside of Texas, a place where he could not even win a statewide election against the Senate’s most reviled member. Perhaps the only person who ever truly thought Beto O’Rourke was likely to be president was Beto O’Rourke.
And various libtards around Weigantia.. :D
Beto’s run always seemed like an ego trip. His family did not seem nearly as enthusiastic as he was about it, and his young son promised to “cry every day” if O’Rourke went through with it. He got into trouble for casually joking about putting the burden of parenting on his wife as he criss-crossed Texas campaigning for the Senate. But fame and power are alluring, and O’Rourke was one of dozens of politicians lured into the 2020 race by the promise of a national profile and a shot at the highest office. A slew of nondescript white men, including John Delaney, Michael Bennet, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, and John Hickenlooper, were delusional enough to think they might stand a chance. They might not have been that irrational, though: even in failing, they succeed in making themselves more well-known and possibly even more influential.
They’ll all go eventually, though. With no original ideas, no movements behind them, they have nothing to offer the electorate, and the electorate knows it. Beto O’Rourke should never have run for president, but he couldn’t stop himself, because some men are just convinced they’re born for it.
And some women too.. :D
This describes practically the entire Democrat candidate field.. :D
no pun intended
Why whatever could you mean?
my grandma drank all my pot.
- grandma's boy
hehehehe :D
Well, let it not be said that I have not made a mark here in Weigantia..
That I have is undeniable.. :D
Nationals’ Kurt Suzuki criticized on social media after wearing MAGA hat
Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute wrote, "Very sad. I love Kurt Suzuki as a player. But he wore a MAGA hat to the White House, so I will not cheer him. Not quite as bad for Ryan Zimmerman, but his praise for Trump is hard to take."
Zimmerman had thanked Trump for his work in keeping the country safe and presented a team jersey.
But Suzuki's endorsement was by far the most scrutinized. While Trump supporters found the display endearing, others slammed Suzuki for wearing the hat and turning the event into a political rally. Trump was even criticized over his "awkward" embrace of the slugger. The Los Angeles Times said the two shared a "titanic moment," referring to the famous picture of Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet picture from "Titanic."
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/nationals-kurt-suzuki-feels-wrath-of-social-media-after-wearing-maga-hat
I love seeing Democrats/Trump-America haters all mired in the stews of their own hatred, bigotry and intolerance...
Sure, Democrats are "tolerant".. They are "tolerant" of only those who toe their Party Slavery line..
Anyone else is attacked and vilified and castigated and demonized..
News flash for the morons of the Democrat Party..
THAT is intolerance.. THAT is bigotry..
And you Democrats REEK of it..
And you Democrats REEK of it..
That SHOULD read And your Democrats REEK of it..
My bust... :D
‘The stakes are enormous’: is Hillary Clinton set for a White House run?
The candidate who lost to Trump is making all the right moves as some fear a primary gone too far left. It’s a tantalising notion, but most observers counsel caution – and a dose of realism
A high-profile book tour. Countless TV interviews. Political combat with a Democratic primary candidate and Donald Trump. A year before the US presidential election, it looks like a campaign and it sounds like a campaign but it isn’t a campaign. At least, not as far anyone knows.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/04/the-stakes-are-enormous-is-hillary-clinton-set-for-a-white-house-run
It's funny..
Hillary is making all the moves and musings and statements and battles that Biden did before HE threw his hat in the ring...
Hillary vs Trump Part Duex???
Would LOVE IT!!! :D
As far as the subject of this commentary??
I'll let the Democrat response speak for me.. :D
Anxious Democratic Establishment Asks, ‘Is There Anybody Else?’
Party leaders who are fatalistic about Democrats’ chances in 2020 are musing about possible late entrants to the race. Sherrod Brown? Michelle Obama?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/22/us/politics/democratic-candidates-2020.html
Apparently the current crop of Dims don't past muster.. :D
Civil War is inevitable..
Civil War Begins When the Constitutional Order Breaks Down
The groundwork is clearly laid, and the majority of us think we are headed towards conflict, but what does history tell us?
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/civil-war-begins-when-the-constitutional-order-breaks-down/
Bring... It... On.....
Funny thing, CW??
Two of the front runners you name are going to be pulled from the campaign trail, likely just as the race is heating up...
Warren and Sanders are going to have to leave the campaign trail and sit in judgement of President Trump if this faux impeachment coup goes to trial..
Casualties #2 and #3 of Dumbocrats short-term moronic, ignorant and incompetent thought processes...
How is Warren or Sanders supposed to "bring it home" when they can't even go on the campaign trail!??
BBBBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
Kiss Warren and Sanders good-bye! :D
It's actually quite hilarious when ya think about it..
President Trump has a REAL, TANGIBLE, FACTUAL and DECIDEDLY PRO-AMERICA record to run on in 2020...
Democrats?? What do THEY have that they can run on?? 2 failed coups and not any legislative victory whatsoever..
And you people actually THINK that President Trump will lose!???
That's cute.. It's inspiring in a sad and pathetic sort of way to see such blind and ignorant Party slavery... :D
Democrats like to paint the fake picture that ALL women and ALL immigrants hate President Trump..
That's Democrat Party "truth"...
Of course, as is per usual, the FACTS are completely different...
10 Reasons I Like Donald Trump, From A Female, Former-Democrat Immigrant
Donald Trump is the perfect president to counter the D.C. swamp and the foreign policy blob.
by Saritha PrabhuBy
As a voter who lives far away from the Beltway bubble, I increasingly find myself harboring an uncomfortable secret: I like Donald Trump, and think he’s the perfect president for these times.
Now, I know that’s a big no-no. In fact, I probably should keep it to myself. After all, the mainstream media has been working non-stop to make me and countless others hate the president and see him as Public Enemy No. 1.
https://thefederalist.com/2019/11/04/10-reasons-i-like-donald-trump-from-a-female-former-democrat-immigrant/
First, he is sui generis, a singularly unique individual who has single-handedly transformed almost everything about American politics, by sheer force of his personality and ideas. Presidents dream of being transformational, and Trump has transformed politics in ways many presidents can only dream about.
He has transformed both political parties, the mainstream media, and the presidential campaigns, and moved the Overton Window on many issues. He has shown many of our institutions for what they actually are and for what we suspected them to be, and broken their brains in the process. His methods may not always be good, but the results have been okay.
The ONLY truly transformational President in the last 50 years..
Now, one can argue whether this is good or bad... But the fact that he IS transformational is beyond debate..
One only has to see the effect that President Trump has had on Weigantia to know this is true..
It went from a reality-based forum to an I HATE TRUMP forum almost overnight..
President Trump's mark on politics is undeniable...
Second, by loudly questioning everything in his unorthodox way he has made us re-examine many things: our bloated bureaucracy, some of our egoistic federal civil servants who believe they’re in charge of our republic, the much-vaunted liberal international order, our awful elites and the meritocracy that produced them. Most important, his foreign policy ideas and actions have generated a long- overdue discussion on America’s global policeman role and its unsustainable costs to our people.
Third, he loves America, and his love is genuine, palpable and almost retro. We could do with a little of that nowadays, swimming as we are in a sea of self-loathing, self-flagellation, and history-rewriting from the left. America, of course, has its flaws and sins, but it is refreshing to be reminded by our president that it still stands tall.
Obama and the Democrats spent 8 years during the Obama years telling Americans and the world how bad America was, how wrong America was in everything it did, does and will do...
It *IS* refreshing to have a President who actually loves this country...
Fourth, he says what he thinks, is remarkably accessible, and is probably the only president who can’t seem to resist answering questions thrown at him. In this, he demonstrates a guilelessness and, shall we say, honesty quite unlike any politician, past or present. It gets him into trouble, of course, but also gets him admirers.
His rhetorical style is, to say the least, unconventional but often effective. By talking like a real person and not trafficking in platitudes and liberal pieties, he has made it difficult for conventional politicians to do their thing.
Fifth, he is clearly a non-ideologue and pragmatic, shown in spades in the way he has refashioned the Republican Party’s orthodoxies on trade, immigration, and foreign intervention.
Sixth, his care for American voters seems genuine, especially toward the people who voted for him and show him unflagging support. He is indeed an odd president: a Manhattan billionaire who has a “blue collar sensibility” and relates to voters who’ve suffered bipartisan neglect from D.C. politicians for decades.
And may I say that his rallies are a thing to behold: all camaraderie and affection between Trump and the crowd, characterized by his playful, extemporaneous riffs, funny and sarcastic, with the underlying theme being a conspiratorial partnership against the smug, self-dealing ruling class and media elites that need to be defeated. No wonder Democratic leaders are anxious about the 2020 election—they can’t compete with Trump’s offbeat charisma.
Not to mention that he’s funny, but you need a special sensor to appreciate it, which the dour, humorless left doesn’t have anymore.
All so true and factually accurate..
Seventh, he has had the greatest influence, perhaps, in transforming how we talk about needless, endless foreign military incursions. He expresses in clear, succinct terms why America’s global policeman role is getting to be untenable, as in his press conference after the raid on ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, when he stated, “But the United States taxpayer is not going to pay for the next fifty years (for endlessly staying in the region).”
One of his finer moments came when he mused movingly during a recent campaign rally about being present at Dover Air Force Base, seeing caskets return from war zones and witnessing the families’ grief. Would that we have more commander-in-chiefs caring—and publicly at that—about dead American soldiers more than gallivanting around the Middle East looking for civil wars to support endlessly.
Eighth, he has challenged China, our most important geopolitical threat, and done what hasn’t been attempted in our status quo politics so far.
Ninth, he says he’s “president of America and not president of the world,” and that American citizens have to be taken care of first before we take care of the world. What a novel idea. This should be said and practiced more often.
In a sane, common-sense world, Trump’s recent United Nations address touting these ideas would be lauded; instead they were pilloried as isolationist and dangerous. But that is the cognitively dissonant media world we live in now—what is pragmatic is framed as radical and transgressive.
Defintely..
Tenth and lastly, I like his chutzpah and pugilistic style, with its underlying theme of “Honey Badger don’t care.” It’s perfectly suited for this moment, where the overarching issue is: Who is really in charge in this republic, the voters or arrogant, unelected federal bureaucrats who think they know best and try to override the will of voters? He seems uniquely suited to take on the combined onslaught coming from many quarters.
Obviously, I don’t like or agree with everything Trump has said and done. Equally obviously, he has moral and ethical failings like many in D.C., but with a difference: he’s no hypocrite and has never pretended to be something he’s not, which can’t be said of his many critics and adversaries. But his flaws and missteps are small potatoes compared to the decades-long, monumental corruption and dishonesty of our ruling and media elite, and the contempt they have toward voters.
The most fun and illuminating part has been watching the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the Democratic Party rip their tolerant masks off and show themselves for what they actually are: vicious, intolerant people who are dangerous when backed into a corner.
I’m now squarely in the camp who believes that Trump is alright, and that nothing he says or does is worse than what the ruling class and media elites do and are capable of. He is far better—or at least far less worse—than them. Truly, as someone said, the office sought the man.
From a woman, a former Democrat and an immigrant..
Such blatant honesty is refreshing..
Of course Democrats and Trump/America haters will now attack her because she has the unmitigated gall to not toe their line..
I guess no one wants to take on the big dog today, eh? :D
hehehehe Understandable, considering what a shitty hand the Democrats have.. :D
I don't think less of ya'all.. For many of ya'all, I don't think it's POSSIBLE I could think less of ya.. :D
This is the time for Mexico, with the help of the United States, to wage WAR on the drug cartels and wipe them off the face of the earth. We merely await a call from your great new president!
-President Donald Trump
Word...
Ann and I are heartbroken for the victims of the horrific attacks in Mexico. Our prayers are with their families who have suffered such an unspeakable tragedy. The U.S. must work with Mexican officials to hold accountable those responsible for this senseless violence.
-Milquetoast Mitt Romney
Mexico has proven time and time again that THEY are not up to the task...
Since it's our OWN citizens who are at risk, it's time to take matters into our hands...
If Mexico won't or can't...
They US will and should...
Two things that you don't get medals for around here: the first is participation. The second is putting up the most posts. It's sorta like medalling in being the loudest.
1) who cares? and 2) are you done yet?
Two things that you don't get medals for around here: the first is participation. The second is putting up the most posts.
Says who??
1) who cares?
Apparently, YOU care.. You commented after all..
2) are you done yet?
When are you people going to learn! I am NEVER "done".... :D
"Jeezus, when are you people going to learn! We are *NEVER* outgunned!!"
-Fred Ward, OFF LIMITS
:D
CW: July 29, 2007, national opinion polls declared the front-runner for the Republican Presidential nomination to be one Rudolph Giuliani. In second place, seven points back, was a retired Tennessee senator and actor, Fred Thompson. In third place, another five points behind, was the eventual G.O.P. nominee, John McCain. Over on the Democratic side, on the same date, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by nearly thirteen points.
So polls mean squat. Iowa means squat.
Sorry.
So polls mean squat. Iowa means squat.
Sorry.
I'll remind you of this next time you quote a poll and swear by it.. :D
Another quote for the Quote Bin.. :D
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/trump-biden-warren-polls.html
The Times today ran a story on the latest Siena College poll, which shows Biden beating Trump in the battleground states, but other candidates come up short.
Interestingly, the numbers have barely moved since 2016.
Interestingly, the numbers have barely moved since 2016.
No.. What's interesting is that, 2 comments ago you said "Polls mean squat" and now yer quoting a poll as if it's gospel SOLELY because it says what you want to hear...
Yunno, Parker.. You make it EMBARRASSINGLY easy to bitch-slap you down..
I'm just sayin'.....
I'll remind you of this next time you quote a poll and swear by it.
When did I ever swear by anything? Everything these days is understated, or overstated, false or mis-leading by some factor. Especially Iowa.
I mention the Siena poll (above) because it plays it down the middle, putting Trump in matchups against the major players in the swing states.
All things equal (and they seem to suggest a re-play of 2016), Biden wins because he's a man.
Interesting.
But, I'll throw you a bone.
You ARE right..
Polls this far out mean squat...
Hell, when it comes to Trump polls 2 weeks before an election mean squat..
One would have thought you would have learned that painful lesson when the polls predicted a 98% chance that Hillary would be POTUS...
Again.. I am just sayin'...
All things equal (and they seem to suggest a re-play of 2016), Biden wins because he's a man.
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
ANd your FACTS to support this???
OK.. So.. NO FACTS...
Just Left Wingery delusion... Gotcha {wink, wink}
As far as Mexico and the butchered Americans??
Here is what needs to happen..
President Trump needs to say the following to the Mexican President..
Señor presidente. Con el mayor respeto. Los estadounidenses han sido asesinados en suelo mexicano por ciudadanos mexicanos ... A menos que desee aceptar personalmente la responsabilidad de esas muertes estadounidenses, esto es lo que sucederá ...
Tienes 3 opciones ...
1. Puede ayudar a las fuerzas estadounidenses al anunciar que Estados Unidos y México han unido sus fuerzas. Permitirá a las fuerzas estadounidenses acceso sin restricciones a tierra, mar y aire mexicanos ... Apuntaremos y eliminaremos a los delincuentes del Cártel y sus bases de operaciones. Cuando esto se logre, permitiremos que México reclame todo el crédito de los medios por la aniquilación que infligiremos en las operaciones y ubicaciones del Cartel.
Su segunda opción es quedarse y no hacer nada. No ayude ni obstaculice las fuerzas estadounidenses. Operaremos como mejor nos parezca y, cuando las Fuerzas estadounidenses eliminen las operaciones y ubicaciones del Cartel, veremos si permitimos que Mexicot reclame crédito o no.
Es probable que su opción final sea la peor opción que pueda tomar. Puede oponerse activa y militarmente a las fuerzas estadounidenses mientras buscan derribar las operaciones y ubicaciones del cártel. Si esta es tu elección, entonces sé esto. Los Estados Unidos verán esta elección como su confesión de que usted y, por extensión, todo México acepta la plena responsabilidad de nuestros conciudadanos estadounidenses que han muerto. Si esta es su elección, habrá un estado de guerra inmediato entre Estados Unidos y México. Nuestras fuerzas estadounidenses NO HACERÁN DISTINCIÓN entre los delincuentes del cártel y la policía civil mexicana y el personal militar mexicano ...
Permítame ser perfectamente claro, señor Presidente.
Esto no es una solicitud. Esto no es una negociación.
Esta es una notificación.
Ya me he comprometido con las fuerzas estadounidenses a esta operación ... Las fuerzas aéreas, terrestres y marítimas de los Estados Unidos están en camino.
Depende de usted lo que ocurra de aquí en adelante ...
Presidente Donald J Trump
Estados Unidos de America
And to that, I bid ya'all a good night..
"Farewell and adieu to you, Spanish Maidens...
Farewell and adieu you Maidens of Spain.."
-Quinn, JAWS
he could say that, but the sound of mexican laughter would echo all the way to canada because there's no way in hades he'd follow through.
The haters will soon leave..
I don't think anyone cares if you leave, but thanks for letting us all know.
We've gotten rid of quite a few of them as of late..
Delusional.
More well follow..
Illiterate.
Maybe after their gone, some of the Weigantian Founders will return..
Delusional and illiterate.
Balthasar
55
Two things that you don't get medals for around here: the first is participation. The second is putting up the most posts. It's sorta like medalling in being the loudest.
1) who cares? and 2) are you done yet?
*laughs*
JL
66
he could say that
His command of the English language is 4th grade level, and y'all think he could speak Spanish? *laughs*
but the sound of mexican laughter would echo all the way to canada because there's no way in hades he'd follow through.
That too. :)
JL,
he could say that, but the sound of mexican laughter would echo all the way to canada
Yea.. I sure Bagdadi was laughing as well, eh?? :D
because there's no way in hades he'd follow through.
There was also no way in hades that he could win the GOP nomination.. Or be elected POTUS...
"No way in hades" doesn't have the same meaning it used to... eh??
of course, there are some things that nobody ever thought would happen in a million years, like a president openly carrying out a foreign policy that primarily benefits russia, or calling the mainstream press the "enemy of the people," or saying he had a super swell time at the holocaust memorial, or self-dealing a government contract for an international summit. donald has done all of those things that no president before him even dreamed, and more.
but as for mexico doing what donald wants them to do, like say they'll pay for a wall, or cooperate with his plan to end asylum claims, or give in to his threats of war? yes, no way in hades still does have the same meaning.