Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys To The White House
The business of predicting the future is always a dicey one, and never more dicey when attempting to predict the outcome of an election. I've always tried to do my honest best when tackling the problem, but (being human) don't always get things right. But I do post my track record for past predictions, to give readers some sense of the accuracy of my gut feelings. Which is why I'm always impressed when others do so, because it is interesting to see who gets it right more often than being wrong.
When it comes to predicting presidential elections before the fact, however, there is one clear leader in the prediction business -- Allan Lichtman, a professor of political history at American University. He's got a system (which he outlines in "The Keys To The White House") which has an unbelievable track record, because by using his 13 "keys," he has successfully predicted the last nine presidential elections (including Trump's win). So his system is certainly worth a look, in presidential election years.
Here are his 13 keys -- a list of criteria meant to be rated as either true or false:
(1) Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
(2) Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
(3) Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
(4) Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
(5) Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
(6) Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
(7) Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
(8) Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
(9) Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
(10) Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
(11) Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
(12) Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
(13) Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
As you can quickly see, a lot of this depends on interpretation or definition of terms. More on that in a moment. Lichtman's system states that if any six (or more) of these statements are false, then the president will lose the upcoming election. If fewer than six are false, then the president will win re-election.
By my interpretation, a quick tally shows five clear "true" statements: numbers (2), (3), (4), (7), and (13). Trump essentially ran unopposed in the Republican primaries. He is the incumbent. No major third-party challenger has appeared (although this could always change). Trump has definitely effected some major policy changes (whether you agree with them or not, you've got to admit the truth of this one). And Joe Biden's a nice guy, but he really isn't what I'd call "charismatic" or a national hero.
Trump also starts off, by my calculations, with four in the false column: (1), (5), (9), and (11). The Democrats retook the House of Representatives in 2018. The short-term economy is almost certainly going to be in recession throughout much of the campaign season (if not far beyond). Trump is now only the third president to be impeached, which definitely qualifies as a scandal. And Trump has achieved no foreign policy or military successes that are going to change anyone's vote.
The other four are either open to interpretation or still unanswered. The long-term economic numbers looked -- before the coronavirus pandemic hit -- like they'd be pretty good, but now it's anyone's guess where they'll be at the end of Trump's term, so number (6) won't be answered for a while. Number (8) is open to interpretation -- what exactly qualifies as "social unrest"? Society has definitely been dramatically changed by the pandemic, but does that qualify as "unrest"? Number (10) is probably true, at this point, since Trump has flailed on the world stage but hasn't actually started a new war or anything. And number (12) is open to interpretation as well, since I've always maintained that "charisma" is a neutral term which can mean positive charisma or negative charisma. Trump has none of the former, but has boatloads of the latter.
Having said all of that, let's take a look at how Professor Lichtman sees things. The following are excerpts from two articles in Salon, the first from January 7 and the second from March 27. In the first, the big subject of the day was the assassination of the Iraqi general, but was before the coronavirus story began to dominate the headlines.
"One, nine and 12 [are] locked in against [Trump]," Lichtman told Salon by email. "Six for. Many others are fluid either way, although I am sill hard pressed to see Trump securing either Key 10 or 11."
When Salon asked Lichtman about the ramifications of the Soleimani assassination, he prefaced by saying that it was "much too early to gauge the political effects" of that decision. He added that at the moment he sees "Trump losing Key 11 on foreign/military success and likely losing Key 10 on foreign/military failure." He saw the possibility that "Trump might get a short-term boost from the killing, which almost always follows from a U.S. military operation. However, I am hard pressed to see this leading to a long-term success and it could cement in the failure key against Trump if it results in significant harm to the U.S. and its interests."
Of course, things have changed dramatically since early January, which was why Salon went back and asked him about it again, right around when Trump was still enjoying a "rally 'round the president" mini-bump in the polls at the end of March:
"There were four keys solidly locked in against the president" prior to the outbreak, Lichtman explained. "It takes six to predict defeat. But this was before [the pandemic]. Key 1: Party mandate. Key 9: Scandal. Key 11: Foreign/military success. Key 12: incumbent charisma. That's four false keys locked in."
Lichtman's analysis is based on the fact that Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms; that Trump has faced a number of scandals during his presidency, including one that led to his impeachment; has had no major military or foreign policy successes; and is neither a military hero nor "charismatic," a term Lichtman defines to mean a candidate who appeals to large groups of voters outside of his or her party's usual coalition. Trump's approval rating has been stuck in the 40s throughout his term and, according to Lichtman, "You can't call a candidate stuck in that range, appealing only to a minority, a charismatic candidate."
. . .
"The current crisis, which is biological, governmental and societal, puts into jeopardy two additional keys," Lichtman explained. Those would be "Key 5, the short-term economy -- many economists are predicting that we're going to slide into a recession, or may already be in a recession -- and Key 8, the social unrest key. And it makes Key 10, foreign policy or military failure, even more shaky than before." Lichtman earlier suggested that relations with North Korea and the unstable situation in the Middle East could endanger Key 10 for Trump.
If any two of those three keys turn against Trump, he is a predicted failure," Lichtman said. "If zero or one turn against him, he is a predicted winner. I obviously haven't made a final call yet, since we don't know how this crisis will ultimately be resolved or not resolved in the upcoming months."
That was a month ago. At this point, it seems pretty obvious that Trump now has five false keys, if Lichtman doesn't consider Trump charismatic: (1), (5), (9), (11), and (12). It seems pretty clear at this point that the economy is almost guaranteed to be in recession during a large majority of the campaign (if not all of it).
That leaves three other keys to be determined, by my count: (6), (8), and (10). Number (8) will hinge entirely on Lichtman's definition of "social unrest," but he wasn't sure one way or the other a month ago, so I have no idea what his final call will be.
Number (6) might depend on how you measure it -- does "real per capita economic growth during the term" mean just taking the starting point and the ending point, or does it mean using averages or means of each year during the term? If it's just beginning-and-ending, then Trump could be in trouble. If it is more nuanced, then he'll probably score a "true" here, on the strength of his first three years.
Lichtman rated Trump "shaky" on number (10), but once again it'll depend on what he means by "major failure in foreign or military affairs." Trump's worldwide coronavirus response seems to be an utter failure to me, but I have no idea how Lichtman sees it, according to his definition.
But by my calculation, only one of these three has to slip into being "false" for Lichtman to predict that Trump will lose the election. I have no idea when he'll make his final prediction, but he's got a perfect record so far stretching back over four decades, so I will indeed be very interested to hear what it is when he does make his final call.
[Technical Note: My apologies for the site being down earlier. It was the result of a miscommunication between my ISP and the domain name registry service I use. For the time being, we seem to be back up and running, but this may only be a temporary fix that lasts for five days. Hopefully by the end of the week everything will be back to normal once again behind the scenes, but I did want to apologize for the site being dark earlier.]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I'm no Allan Lichtman but I do make predictions, now and then, when my gut tells me I'm right. It doesn't happen often. In fact, it's quite rare. The last time that happened, I predicted, in January of 2008, that Obama would choose Biden.
This time, I'm predicting Trump will win.
Hopefully, our dearest editor here will change January to the month that Obama became the nominee. Thanks in advance.
I have to side with Lichtman’s definition for “charismatic” more than CW’s. I have always said that you know a person is “charismatic” when their opposition in competition cannot help but cheer for them when they are victorious! It’s the quality that makes it hard for everyone NOT to root for a person’s success — they are just that likable.
Based on Lichtman’s definition, I think Biden does fit the criteria for being “charismatic”.
Biden is very likable — you do not hear of people holding a lot of animosity for Joe. He might get his words mixed up sometimes, but his heart is always in the right place.
Liz,
This time, I'm predicting Trump will win.
Ye of little faith! I honestly cannot see how Trump could honestly win this time around — he barely won in 2016. It was a fluke that no one truly believed was going to happen... no one was more surprised by Trump’s victory than Trump, himself!
Lots of people who voted for Trump in the last election will not be making the same mistake this time around. Not to mention the number of Trump voters that Trump has already and will kill off prior to Election Day. And I know of no one who did not vote for Trump is 2016 that says that they will vote for him in 2020...NO ONE! Do you? Seriously, do you know of anyone that has become a fan of Trump’s since he took office. They might exist — I mean there are Log Cain Republicans — so anything is possible....but if they exist, they are few and far between! So if all of these things are true, then it would be impossible for Trump to win without interference.
My faith is all used up.
CW: And number (12) is open to interpretation as well, since I've always maintained that "charisma" is a neutral term which can mean positive charisma or negative charisma. Trump has none of the former, but has boatloads of the latter.
Being familiar with the "13 keys" of Professor Lichtman, I can tell you that he defines "charisma" to mean that a candidate has wide appeal to large groups of voters outside his/her Party's usual coalition. I would wager Lichtman would likely rate Trump as "false" in that regard since Trump's appeal is demonstrably limited, and he's been losing appeal since long before the pandemic with a key group that votes: Seniors.
CW: ... and is neither a military hero nor "charismatic," a term Lichtman defines to mean a candidate who appeals to large groups of voters outside of his or her party's usual coalition.
Okay -- should have read the whole thing before commenting -- that definitely covers my comment in [6]. Lichtman's "13 keys" tend to remind me of the Nostradamus quatrains in that they seem vague, ambiguous, and infinitely adaptable on an as needed basis.
CW: That leaves three other keys to be determined, by my count: (6), (8), and (10). Number (8) will hinge entirely on Lichtman's definition of "social unrest," but he wasn't sure one way or the other a month ago, so I have no idea what his final call will be.
I know, right!? "Social distancing" seems like it ought to qualify literally as "social unrest" since it seems there is no rest/no end to having to constantly order people out of my dang six foot circle of "space."
As for other social unrest, it has been a long time since I remember so many women... just so many people, in fact... taking to the streets in protest of a president, and it doesn't stop at the waters edge either. They protest the Perpetually Whining/Diapered Man Baby near everywhere he goes... to the point of him cancelling trips to avoid it:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-ireland-visit-trip-cancel-protests-taoiseach-leo-varadkar-golfing-twitter-a8533246.html
No social unrest: False!
@cw,
i agree with you that the state of many of these factors is still either ambiguous or in flux, which will make this election notoriously difficult to predict.
however, for the time being i'm going to stick with my earlier (pre-covid) prediction, that donald wins re-election with an even smaller minority of the popular vote, becoming the first president ever to do so twice.
JL
Man, you guys (and gal) are pessimistic!
From where I sit, it's Biden's to lose. I mean, really. The economy alone may tank Trump. Plus, all his coronabragging isn't winning him any suburban women votes...
But then again, we ARE six months out. Still lots of time for other stuff to develop. But you guys should be a tad bit more optimistic, which was really the whole point of this column.
:-)
-CW
I seems too late for that.
Chris [10]
I suspect a certain amount of this is not wanting to tempt fate, not daring to be optimistic. Saying 'The car is still running well' before you set out on a long drive with few services on the way seems to ask for a breakdown. (Happened to us once.)
Chris,
From where I sit, it's Biden's to lose.
How do you suppose Biden loses when the guy he loses to is Trump … from that vantage point, I mean?
[12],
Not even close.
CW
10
From where I sit, it's Biden's to lose. I mean, really. The economy alone may tank Trump. Plus, all his coronabragging isn't winning him any suburban women votes...
I agree it's definitely Biden's to lose. Republicans are trying to kill Obamacare at the very time people need it most, and does the GOP have any type of plan whatsoever to replace it with? Still "no" after all these years.
The GOP's plan to win is a "confidential playbook" (link provided in box below... shhhhhhhhh... it's confidential) that's basically just "blame China for everything, and Joe Biden is Xi's best friend."
Donald Trump doesn't know Xi, never met him, never had the "best chocolate cake you ever saw" with him, doesn't even know where China is, never heard of it until recently, can't spell "Jie-na," never heard of Trump ties made in "Jie-na" and definitely does not owe millions of dollars to the state-owned Bank of China. All those millions of test kits the Trump administration promised and all the stockpiles of PPE? China stole them and gave them to Xi's brother, Joe Biden. They're in his basement closet... not the small closet at the bottom of the stairs, the bigger closet through the secret bookcase that has a shuttle that tunnels directly to... China... just kidding... Nancy Pelosi's house, of course.
But then again, we ARE six months out. Still lots of time for other stuff to develop. But you guys should be a tad bit more optimistic, which was really the whole point of this column.
Trump's hemorrhaging of suburban voters has continued unabated for multiple years now and has shown no signs whatsoever of stopping anytime soon. Can't blame China for that. :)
FPC...
CW,
You could post comments here while the DNS problems were happening?
It was up, it was down most of the afternoon..
I caught it at a good point..
Please post any more details, if you've got them. Thanks.
It was definitely a DNS issue..
Here's what I say when I was trying ta get ya thru the web:
This site can’t be reached chrisweigant.com’s server IP address could not be found.
Try running Windows Network Diagnostics.
DNS_PROBE_FINISHED_NXDOMAIN
Couldn't ping the domain either...
This is what I got back when I emailed you the problem..
A message that you sent could not be delivered to one or more of its
recipients. This is a permanent error. The following address(es) failed:
chris@chrisweigant.com
Unrouteable address
HTH
Noticed another issue with the site..
When you make a SUBMIT on a comment that get's held (IE 2 or more links) it just goes to a blank page (comment.php, I think). I click refresh and it gives me the RESUBMIT something or a rather box from Chrome..
Click YES on that and then I get the duplicate comment box from Wordpress... Use BACKSPACE which brings me back to the comments page where my comment is already in place.. Delete the comment and refresh the page and I see the whole problem was caused by the moderation/2 links dilly...
In the case of THIS comment, I guess Wordpress treats a web link and an email address as 2 links.
Just FYI....
Man, you guys (and gal) are pessimistic!
Oh wow!!
Can't WAIT to read the comments!!! :D Sounds like Nectar Of The Gods... :D
But let me get to old business first.. :D
FPC,
No stalking required. You handed it to me on a silver platter. Go back and search in the comments if you would like the full story, not going to type these things out every time you experience memory loss...
I remember the full story perfectly.. But you had to go outside of Weigantia to get dirt on me.. You admitted that.. You stated at the time you felt no need to use it, as it wasn't relevant to anything here..
I guess you getting your ass kicked over and over and over again all of the sudden made it relevant.. :D
It's OK.. I understand Yer ego takes a beating and you have to lash out.. It's a common malady here...
FPC,
as to why i believed christine blasey ford and don't find tara reade's story entirely credible, it has zero to do with the politics. blasey ford is a professional with very little public profile, who had a lot to lose and very little to gain by coming forward. there's no motive for her to lie, and she didn't appear to really want to tell her story publicly.
Not factually accurate.. Ford was a dyed-in-the-wool Left Winger and Trump hater.. She knew if she came forward she would be a hero with funding and book deals and fame and fortune to follow...
Which is exactly what happened...
But that has nothing to do with her actual claim which was full of holes and was COMPLETELY unsubstantiated by ANYONE.. Even the ones Ford said WOULD back her up..
Yer entire comment addresses the PERSON with opinions, not facts.. And you ignore the actual claims themselves.. If you ignore your personal opinions as to character of the accusers and concentrate on the accusations themselves, the fact that Ford could not find ANYONE to back her up.. Not even her own family and friends.. And Reade has that substantiation amongst family AND friends..
Ford had NO CREDIBILITY from the start.. Reade has credibility coming out her butt...
And it's undeniable that this is NOT going to go away.. Biden is destroying his campaign by ignoring this and hoping it goes away...
And ya'all (NEN) are aiding and abetting that destruction by doing the same thing....
"Aidin' and Abettin'..."
-Sheriff Farley, MY COUSIN VINNY
:D
FPC
JL,
(That one above was to you as well)
when this first came out, i said that biden would absolutely have to address it, and how he did so could bear upon whether or not he is elected president. wouldn't you know it, cillizza now agrees with me.
And Biden has said word one about it.. NOT A SINGLE WORD...
So, yes.. I agree with you.. How Biden addresses this will have bearing on where or not he is elected POTUS..
And since he HASN'T addressed it, that shows he is unfit for the Presidency...
OK Let's find out why ya'all are so pessimistic!! :D
Liz
This time, I'm predicting Trump will win.
Yup.... Yup....
And do you know WHY President Trump will be elected???
Because Democrats have NOTHING but their Trump/America hate to run on...
They have put ALL their energy into bringing down President and very little (if any) energy in actually doing their jobs to make things better for Americans..
And, come 3 Nov, the American people will remember.. And WILL vote accordingly..
Russ,
I honestly cannot see how Trump could honestly win
You said the same thing in 2016... Why do you think it has any credibility..
— he barely won in 2016.
Bullshit.. Trump decimated Hillary in the Electoral College which is the only meter that matters..
You just can't handle the FACT that Hillary lost.. And lost big..
And you won't be able to handle the fact that Biden (or whoever actually runs against President Trump) will ALSO lose and lose big...
We're gonna need a massive monitoring of mental health here in Weigantia come 4 Nov.... The depression ya'all will feel is going to be epic..
JL,
however, for the time being i'm going to stick with my earlier (pre-covid) prediction, that donald wins re-election with an even smaller minority of the popular vote, becoming the first president ever to do so twice.
Have ta disagree.. Not about the win part..
You have to remember, we're going to be at a place where this covid thing is in the rear view mirror... The mere fact that we're past it will be a huge morale booster to all Americans..
And President Trump will get the credit.. He will win by a huge margin...
Think of it was a 1 year war where some battles were lost and things looked grim at times... But with great leadership and perseverance, the President pulls out a huge win..
In Nov, the vast majority of Americans will only remember the huge win and not the losses and missteps..
CW,
But then again, we ARE six months out. Still lots of time for other stuff to develop. But you guys should be a tad bit more optimistic, which was really the whole point of this column.
The mere fact that you felt the need to run a rah rah Biden's going to win commentary indicates that such a commentary is needed..
And it's needed because the odds are not in Biden's favor..
Especially with this rape criminal complaint hanging over Biden like the Sword of Damocles..
JL,
Regardless of the merits of the accusations (we're likely never to agree on that) can we agree that Biden himself and personally needs to address this rape criminal complaint in full..
And that failure to do so will be devastating, perhaps terminal, to his campaign..
Can we at least agree on that??
The behavior of the Democrats, and of their enablers in the media, is both shameless and shameful. But those tempted to dismiss it as business-as-usual political hypocrisy should think again.
It is something darker and more cynical. It is sometimes said that if the Democrats didn’t have double standards they would have no standards at all.
But the present case goes beyond that admittedly low standard. When Caligula made his favorite horse a senator, he did so not because he was mad or impish but because he held the senate and everything it stood for in utter contempt.
Similarly in this case. These people were willing to crucify Brett Kavanaugh for the sin of being from the wrong party. Now they are willing to ignore credible evidence not just of sexual abuse but patent mental deterioration because of their thirst for power.
The silver lining in this shameless-shameful episode is that it has revealed, if but momentarily, the utterly brutish nature of the Democratic establishment. Let the voters beware.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/voters-beware-tara-reade-reveals-the-shameful-and-the-shameless_3328899.html
The differences in treatment by the media and by Dumbocrats between the Ford accusations and the Reade Rape criminal complaint is blatant, obvious and undeniable..
ANYONE with more than 2 brain cells to rub together simply MUST concede that there is a double standard here at work solely based on Party slavery...
UN... DEN...IABLE....
It's actually my hope that the rape criminal complaint doesn't go too far too fast..
Right now, Democrats are stuck with Biden. Even though the facts show he is in decline, cognitive-skills wise.. Democrats are likely looking for an excuse to dump Biden..
And the rape criminal complaint may be the very excuse to do it..
Have ya'all noticed that the Biden campaign really has no Biden showing up anywhere lately?? Hell, the NY Grime did a HUGE ego-stroke on Biden and the campaign would not even make Biden available for that..
The word from the Biden campaign seems to be none is more..
NO public appearances..
If Biden DOES survive the nomination process, he will be DEMOLISHED at the debates...
Can you imagine the total implosion of the Democrat Party when this rape criminal complaint totally pushes Biden into full blown dementia???
JL,
when this first came out, i said that biden would absolutely have to address it, and how he did so could bear upon whether or not he is elected president. wouldn't you know it, cillizza now agrees with me.
And I agree with you as well..
I have ALWAYS agreed on that point..
If Biden doesn't address the rape criminal complaint forcefully and completely, his campaign is toast...
And deservedly so...
“Joe Biden isn’t sheltering in place in his basement bunker because of the pandemic, he’s hiding from Tara Reade.”
-Donald Trump Jr
Yup....
JL,
and all that without even getting into all her weird posts about liking vladimir putin with his shirt off.
mind you, that doesn't necessarily mean she's lying about this, it just means that it's harder to take her allegations at face value.
How do you get there from here??
How do you get to "harder to accept the rape accusation at face value" from "she likes Putin with his shirt off??"
If she said the likes Pierce Brosnan with his shirt off, would THAT mean her rape accusation has more credibility???
What if she said she likes Dolly Parton with her shirt off?? Would THAT mean her rape accusation has more validity??
With the utmost respect (I mean it) it seems to me you are waffling around trying to find ANYTHING to throw Reade's credibility into question..
Liking a certain man (or woman) with their shirt off has absolutely **NO BEARING** on credibility..
I am sure you would agree with me on that...
“It Shattered My Life”: Former Joe Biden Staffer Tara Reade Says He Sexually Assaulted Her in 1993
"Time’s Up said it could not fund a #MeToo allegation against Joe Biden, citing its nonprofit status and his presidential run"
In an exclusive Democracy Now! TV/radio broadcast, we speak with Tara Reade, the former staffer in Joe Biden’s Senate office who has come forward with allegations that Biden sexually assaulted her in 1993. Last week, The Intercept reported that the Time’s Up Legal Defense Fund, set up to help survivors of rape and sexual assault, refused to fund a #MeToo investigation into allegations against Biden. Reade told journalist Katie Halper in an interview published Tuesday that Biden repeatedly touched her without her consent and sexually assaulted her. Reade approached the Time’s Up Legal Defense Fund in January looking for assistance, but was reportedly told the fund could not help her because Biden is a candidate for federal office, and pursuing a case could jeopardize the fund’s nonprofit status. Reade says she learned from The Intercept report that the public relations firm representing Time’s Up Legal Defense Fund is SKDKnickerbocker, whose managing director, Anita Dunn, is top adviser to Biden’s presidential campaign.
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/31/tara_reade_joe_biden_sexual_assault
So, the organization that was set up to help rape survivor victims won't help Tara Reid because it's Joe Biden..
And ya'all wonder I sneer at these organizations... They are nothing but Party appendages of the Democrat Party SOLEY based on a Party agenda...
In other words, they aren't set up to help women.. They are set up to help the Democrat Party..
Hypocrisy at it's finest...
tara reade is pro-pie? if so, i may have to re-evaluate...
The fact that Lichtman can make the predictions with a list that has nothing to do with making the country better is not something to be celebrated.
I would also point out that Lichtman's conventional list is for normal times..
This year is anyone thing but normal and conventional wisdom has no place in the here and now..
Tara Reade's performance in American Pie and Body Shots should be enough to destroy her credibility. :D
That would be Tara Reid, but I see where yer going.. :D hehehe
tara reade is pro-pie? if so, i may have to re-evaluate...
Heh
By the pie (see what I did there?? :D) did you catch the Family Guy pie?? :D
But you had to go outside of Weigantia to get dirt on me..
A hell of a lot less further than your copy and pasting off Trumpian haunts. A mere google search in fact in reply to one of your own...
I guess you getting your ass kicked over and over and over again all of the sudden made it relevant.. :D
Yawn. Projecting your insecurities again?
And what about:
Ivana Trump (1989), Jill Harth (1992), E. Jean Carroll (1995 or 1996), Summer Zervos (2007), Alva Johnson (2019), Jessica Leeds (1980s), Kristin Anderson (1990s), Lisa Boyne (1996), Cathy Heller (1997), Temple Taggart McDowell (1997), Karena Virginia (1998), Mindy McGillivray (2003), Jennifer Murphy (2005), Rachel Crooks (2005), Natasha Stoynoff (2005), Juliet Huddy (2005 or 2006), Jessica Drake (2006), Ninni Laaksonen (2006), Cassandra Searles (2013), Mariah Billado, Victoria Hughes, and three other Miss Teen USA contestants (1997), Bridget Sullivan (2000), Tasha Dixon (2001), Samantha Holvey (2006)
If these are all bullshit, even with court cases and payoffs then so is your current Biden fetish...
You're still downplaying the SARS-CoV-2 virus and claiming -- get this -- the "covid thing" will be in the "review view mirror." *facepalm*
It's like the Trump cult zombies live on an entirely different planet than everyone else, and over there on Earth 2, pay no attention to the 25+ million people and still rising who have lost their jobs because of the pandemic that is still killing 1000+ Americans per day right now.
And President Trump will get the credit..
He sure will... because he dithered, denied, and downplayed and outright ignored the facts being reported to him by the CDC, multiple intelligence agencies, etc., while he lavished praise repeatedly on President Xi... and continues to downplay the facts on the ground.
He will win by a huge margin...
Over on Earth 2 where less than an 80,000 votes in three states is equated with a landslide, they'll have their own set of invented talking points replete with lies aplenty regardless the actual outcome. There's a right-wing bloviating bullshit talking point for everything.
Over on Earth 2, they're making fun of science while making excuses for Disinfectant Donald; it's a whole other world there where you just lie and deny.
We are up to 56,649 American dead due to Coronavirus and counting. You hammered Obama for 12,000 over an entire pandemic (years after he was out of office). Where is your Trump criticisms? Or are you blinded by your Trumpian biases?
And what about:
Pure unadulterated WhatAboutism...
Not a SINGLE fact to support any valid comparison..
The simple fact is, in the here and now, if Biden doesn't address this rape criminal complaint he doesn't deserve to be POTUS...
Everyone here who has more than 2 brain cells to rub together concede this..
We are up to 56,649 American dead due to Coronavirus and counting.
And yer so damned happy about it... Sick fuck..
A hell of a lot less further than your copy and pasting off Trumpian haunts.
Doesn't matter how far you went.. The fact is, yer stalking me... You can't handle getting your ass handed to you on a daily basis so you did an Internet search on me...
Again.. Sick fuck...
Joe Biden supporter Alyssa Milano changes tune on his accuser Tara Reade amid new developments
Actress-turned-activist Alyssa Milano, who was criticized for her continued support of presumed 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden amid sexual assault allegations levied by Tara Reade, may have changed her tune in a Monday night tweet.
“I’m aware of the new developments in Tara Reade’s accusation against Joe Biden. I want Tara, like every other survivor, to have the space to be heard and seen without being used as fodder,” Milano tweeted. “I hear and see you, Tara.”
The “new developments” are presumably Reade’s former neighbor, and a self-described supporter of Biden, telling Business Insider that she was told about the allegations decades ago, and the emergence of a 1993 CNN clip that seemingly featured Reade’s late mother calling into “Larry King Live” and alluding to her daughter's time working for the then-senator.
Reade had also criticized Milano during an interview with Fox News that was published prior to her tweet on Monday
"I think we need to compare how she responded to Brett Kavanaugh... quite different than the talking points she [used] regarding Joe Biden," Reade said when asked about Milano. "She never reached out to me. I don't really want to amplify her voice because I feel like she hijacked my narrative for a while and framed it about herself... she knows nothing about it."
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/alyssa-milano-joe-biden-tara-reade-new-developments
As I said and as the facts bear out.. The Reade rape criminal complaint is NOT going to go away... It's going to get bigger and bigger...
And, as any Weigantian who has more than 2 brain cells to rub together concedes...
If Joe Biden personally doesn't address this completely and honestly...
He doesn't deserve to be POTUS...
The ONLY question that remains is will Biden be forced out of the race BEFORE or AFTER he is crowned the nominee...
Pure unadulterated WhatAboutism...
Translation: you got nothing and wish all of Trumps indiscretions would go away. They won't.
And yer so damned happy about it... Sick fuck..
Going full Imbecile on this one? Stop being such a blatant hypocrite and give Trump his quid pro quo. You prat on about "us" not criticizing the left but then do the exact same thing when your guy is on the line...
Doesn't matter how far you went.. The fact is, yer stalking me... You can't handle getting your ass handed to you on a daily basis so you did an Internet search on me...
Yawn. I guess I have to type it out, as your memory is evidently faulty. You tried to prove an argument by number of returns on a google search. I was merely proving the silliness of such things by putting your name and humorous derogatory terms in to google to see which would get the most returns. Turned out, I was not the first to use one of those derogatory terms. You can toss insults and false accusations all day long, it does not change the fact FACT or even FACT that I did not stalk you but you, by you previous indiscretions handed such things to me on a silver platter.
Ivana Trump (1989), Jill Harth (1992), E. Jean Carroll (1995 or 1996), Summer Zervos (2007), Alva Johnson (2019), Jessica Leeds (1980s), Kristin Anderson (1990s), Lisa Boyne (1996), Cathy Heller (1997), Temple Taggart McDowell (1997), Karena Virginia (1998), Mindy McGillivray (2003), Jennifer Murphy (2005), Rachel Crooks (2005), Natasha Stoynoff (2005), Juliet Huddy (2005 or 2006), Jessica Drake (2006), Ninni Laaksonen (2006), Cassandra Searles (2013), Mariah Billado, Victoria Hughes, and three other Miss Teen USA contestants (1997), Bridget Sullivan (2000), Tasha Dixon (2001), Samantha Holvey (2006)
If Donald Trump personally doesn't address this completely and honestly...
He doesn't deserve to be POTUS...
But then we already knew that...
Look at that: 56,752. Already gone up in the few minutes it took to comment. Why are you ignoring the failings of your Orange God?
@bashi,
is that 56k number including or excluding the cases of large-vessel stroke found to be covid-related after the fact?
JL
Pure Bing coronavirus tracker. As good as anything to needle Michale about his failings...
Mike
26
Regardless of the merits of the accusations (we're likely never to agree on that) can we agree that Biden himself and personally needs to address this rape criminal complaint in full..
There is no "rape criminal complaint" against Joe Biden. Why on Earth would anyone agree that Biden needed to address a "rape criminal complaint" that doesn't exist?
She doesn't remember saying stop, and she filed a public incident report of an unnamed person. Maybe she just forgot Biden's name when she filed it... or maybe she didn't want to be criminally liable for filing a false police report; which one seems more likely?
Of course Joe Biden should address the claim she's making to the press but refuses to name him to the police... so not exactly a "rape criminal complaint" and far, far from it.
Can we at least agree on that??
You keep naming Joe Biden as a criminal rapist... something even his accuser will not do.
Mike
28
It's actually my hope that the rape criminal complaint doesn't go too far too fast..
Well, lookie there, you got your wish already since there is no "rape criminal complaint" against Joe Biden, and any such criminal complaint filed against Biden after nearly three decades wouldn't go anywhere anyway since it's long since past the statute of limitations. The court of public opinion is a whole other matter, but there is no criminal complaint naming Joe Biden.
Right now, Democrats are stuck with Biden. Even though the facts show he is in decline, cognitive-skills wise.. Democrats are likely looking for an excuse to dump Biden..
The Berners are trying like hell to dump Biden and being propped up by the Trumpanzees who don't want to run against Biden, and what they'll all most likely accomplish is bupkis.
And the rape criminal complaint may be the very excuse to do it..
There is no "rape criminal complaint" except on Earth 2 where facts be damned and they just pull stuff straight out of their monkey asses.
As I said and as the facts bear out.. The Reade rape criminal complaint is NOT going to go away...
It sure as hell can't go away until it exists, and there is no "rape criminal complaint" against Joe Biden.
The ONLY question that remains is will Biden be forced out of the race BEFORE or AFTER he is crowned the nominee...
While I agree it is the stuff that right-wing dreams are made of, I don't think they're going to Al Franken Joe Biden.
[40] Kick wrote:
"It's like the Trump cult zombies live on an entirely different planet than everyone else, and over there on Earth 2, pay no attention to the 25+ million people and still rising who have lost their jobs because of the pandemic that is still killing 1000+ Americans per day right now.
He will win by a huge margin...
Over on Earth 2 where less than an 80,000 votes in three states is equated with a landslide, they'll have their own set of invented talking points replete with lies aplenty regardless the actual outcome. There's a right-wing bloviating bullshit talking point for everything."
Reminds me of all the Right Wing Republicans I was having discussions online with right before Obama's Second Term. I kept telling them they were just whistling in the dark and I listed all the reasons why Obama was going to win a SECOND term. They kept telling me I was wrong and Obama was going to lose in a landslide, right up until he didn't lose and won a second time. After that all their accounts disappeared from online and I never heard from any of them again to be able to say to them "I told you so!" LOL
is that 56k number including or excluding the cases of large-vessel stroke found to be covid-related after the fact?
93% of those dead from "covid" had underlying conditions...
Bashi
46
Look at that: 56,752. Already gone up in the few minutes it took to comment.
This is unfortunately officially 50,000+ deaths beyond Mike's shitty prediction of 6,000. Mike was one of those gullible Trump zombies who claimed over and over ad nauseam that the coronavirus was "decidedly non serious" despite all facts to the contrary.
Why are you ignoring the failings of your Orange God?
It's hard not to notice that Mike's lousy prediction of those unfortunate deaths of Americans due to Donald Trump is actually much, much closer to the number of women who've accused Trump of pedophile peeping, sexual assault, and forcible rape.
It sure as hell can't go away until it exists, and there is no "rape criminal complaint" against Joe Biden.
Tara Reade, who last month accused the former vice president and longtime senator of sexually assaulting her in 1993 while employed as one of his Senate staffers, told police that Biden “assaulted her in a Senate corridor, shoving his hand under her skirt and penetrating her with his fingers,” Textbook definition of rape Business Insider reported Saturday while also noting that the “statute of limitations for the alleged assault...
https://www.allsides.com/news/2020-04-13-0855/former-biden-staffer-files-criminal-complaint-dc-police
Of course, the FACTS say differently..
No surprise that Weigantian Peanuts in the gallery ignore the facts...
:D
"The Democratic Party will stand up for women and for what is right. Public service is a public trust.If you are a candidate for office or an elected official who has engaged in sexual misconduct, you should step aside – whether you sit in the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, or the Oval Office."
-DNC Head Perez, 2017
"If you have committed rape, the Party of Bill Clinton welcomes you as the Democrat Party nominee for POTUS."
-DNC Head Perez, 2020
Typical Dumbocrat.. Talking out both sides of their ass, depending on the -D or -R after a person's name..
The rape criminal complaint against Joe Biden is NOT going to go away..
It's universally agreed by Weigantians who have more than 2 brain cells to rub together that if Biden doesn't address the rape criminal complaint with complete honesty and candor, he does not deserve to be POTUS...
"These are the facts of the case. And they are undisputed."
-Captain Smilin' Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN
Michale-
And how many of those with underlying conditions would live many more years if Trumps incomptence had not did them in?
56,843 Americans dead due to Coronavirus and counting, And you still just make excuses...
I hear there is a recent book that adds 43 women to the LONG list of Trump's indiscretions.
To update:
Ivana Trump (1989), Jill Harth (1992), E. Jean Carroll (1995 or 1996), Summer Zervos (2007), Alva Johnson (2019), Jessica Leeds (1980s), Kristin Anderson (1990s), Lisa Boyne (1996), Cathy Heller (1997), Temple Taggart McDowell (1997), Karena Virginia (1998), Mindy McGillivray (2003), Jennifer Murphy (2005), Rachel Crooks (2005), Natasha Stoynoff (2005), Juliet Huddy (2005 or 2006), Jessica Drake (2006), Ninni Laaksonen (2006), Cassandra Searles (2013), Mariah Billado, Victoria Hughes, and three other Miss Teen USA contestants (1997), Bridget Sullivan (2000), Tasha Dixon (2001), Samantha Holvey (2006)
+43 more...
And still just denials from you. Just think what you would post if such a person had a -D after their name...
[53]
People, please. In order to be counted as a COVID fatality, a death needs to be a "clean" kill. No underlying conditions, because very few Americans of any age have underlying conditions. Same as traffic accidents and gun violence, right? If a person had underlying conditions, we can't really say their death wasn't from those conditions, right? They were going to die eventually, right?
Voice
8000 people die every single day in the U.S., about 2.8 million annually. The proximate cause can be most anything, currently COVID is a hot one because it makes news, but the ultimate cause is always the lack of immortality.
Stucki,
My mother died from sepsis. She didn't go to the hospital with sepsis, but it killed her nonetheless. I was going to lose her at some point anyway, but I would have preferred a far more peaceful and painless end for her.
COVID isn't a news bite; it's a novel virus that few people seem to have immunity to. People are dying. It doesn't matter whether and what other conditions they had.
Mike
55
On April 9, 2020, Tara Reade filed an "incident report" with the District of Columbia police where she "disclosed that she was the victim of a sexual assault which was committed by Subject-2 in 1993."
I would not think I would have to explain to a self-titled "law enforcement officer" for 2-1/2 decades that an "incident report" filed 2-1/2 decades outside the statute of limitations is not the equivalent of a "rape criminal complaint," but here we are yet again with your bullshit and the facts being two totally different things.
No surprise that Weigantian Peanuts in the gallery ignore the facts...
At last the Goober and I agree on something... even if he seems totally clueless that he's the nut!
Mike
56
"If you have committed rape, the Party of Bill Clinton welcomes you as the Democrat Party nominee for POTUS."
-DNC Head Perez, 2020
Fake quote by Mike the pathological lying inventor of fake quotes.
If you voted for Donald Trump and think he is going to win again in a "landslide," then you've basically made the issue a moot one since you've conceded you're fine with a confessed rapist and also believe the majority of America will be just fine with it too... in a landslide.
The rape criminal complaint against Joe Biden is NOT going to go away..
Because it doesn't exist and never will, self-professed LEO who needs statute of limitations and the difference between a "public incident report" and a "rape criminal complaint" explained to him.
A criminal complaint is a court document that accuses/charges a suspect with committing a specific crime. Criminal complaints are generally filed by prosecutors in cooperation with the police officer who make a criminal arrest of the accused. There can be no "rape criminal complaint" against Joe Biden for a "public incident report" of an alleged sexual assault nearly three decades ago wherein the statute of limitations has long since expired.
Do you need anything else explained to you regarding criminal procedure or are you quite content to continue displaying your ignorance regarding actual Law Enforcement?
CRS,
8000 people die every single day in the U.S., about 2.8 million annually. The proximate cause can be most anything, currently COVID is a hot one because it makes news, but the ultimate cause is always the lack of immortality.
There you go again.. Confusing the Trump/America haters with FACTs and Reality..
Don't you realize that they don't CARE when Americans die unless they can blame it on President Trump..
That's why they were silent when Odumbo's incompetence killed over 12,000 Americans..
57,640 Americans dead due to Coronavirus and counting, And you still just make excuses...
57,640 Americans dead due to Coronavirus and counting, And you still just make excuses...
Just stating facts..
Like the FACT that you are ecstatic that there are so many dead Americans you can blame on President Trump..
Sick fuck...
Trump has proven inept in this countries moment of need and all you can put forth is name calling and excuses...
Trump has proven inept in this countries moment of need and all you can put forth is name calling and excuses...
Think so??
Wanna make a wager then about how President Trump will do in Nov??
Of course you don't... Because you KNOW how full of shit you are.. : D
@m,
regardless of whether or not donald is re-elected, he really has dropped the ball on this health crisis, and it's unlikely that history will remember that failure kindly.
JL
57,962 Americans dead due to Coronavirus and counting, And you still just make excuses and engage in name calling...
regardless of whether or not donald is re-elected, he really has dropped the ball on this health crisis, and it's unlikely that history will remember that failure kindly.
He's made some mistakes..
But so has the CDC and the WHO..
Funny how no one here wants to acknowledge those, eh??
In other words, ya'all bitched about President Trump before all this, ya'all bitched about him after all this.. And ya'all will bitch about him even after he wins re-election..
That's the problem with all the hate being at 200% all the time..
It loses all credibility.... It's all nothing but noise....
That's the problem with all the hate being at 200% all the time..
It loses all credibility.... It's all nothing but noise....
Your posting history in a nut shell...
Has anyone noticed that the word PANDEMIC is simply 'DEM' surrounded by PANIC... :D
i give donald credit when i think he makes a good decision, which has happened from time to time (e.g. suleimani assassination, rocket attacks in response to chemical warfare in syria).
donald treating pandemic response as a political problem first and a health problem second has cost tens of thousands of americans their lives, many of whom were relatively young and in good health, such as the strokes that were caused by clotting due to covid.
we can quibble about the exact percentages, but these deaths are a fact that character attacks on joe biden won't drown out, regardless of whether or not there turns out to be any substance to them. nor will winning re-election drown it out. if anything, a second term likely makes donald even more historically reviled than he'll be already.
JL
i give donald credit when i think he makes a good decision, which has happened from time to time (e.g. suleimani assassination, rocket attacks in response to chemical warfare in syria).
Yes, YOU do..
And CW has done so.. Once I believe.. (CW please correct me if I am wrong.. :D)
But you are the exception that simply emphasis the rule..
if anything, a second term likely makes donald even more historically reviled than he'll be already.
Wanna bet??? :D
This pandemic response wasn't the best, but President Trump is far from the only one to blame.. You'll recall that Democrats were in the midst of a faux impeachment coup when this pandemic was kicking off..
Add to that the total frak ups by the CDC and the WHO???
Future history will treat the minor mistakes of President Trump to be nothing compared to the major frak ups by Democrats, and the CDC and WHO...
donald treating pandemic response as a political problem first
Actually, it was the Democrats who did that by obstructing President Trump at every turn..
It was DEMOCRATS who created (and epitomizes) the mantra, "Never let a crisis go to waste"
Don't forget that...
we can quibble about the exact percentages, but these deaths are a fact that character attacks on joe biden won't drown out,
Again, you want to bet??? Oh wait.. We already did.. :D
Unless Biden addresses the Reade rape criminal complaint (and you and I both know he won't) he will be forced from the race...
And then we're back to a Democrat contested convention which will spell utter doom for the Democrats in Nov...
Tara Reade calls for release of Biden's Senate records: 'Why are they under seal?'
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tara-reade-calls-on-biden-release-senate-records
Why is rapist Joe Biden hiding his records??
Why not release the records detailing Reade's rape complaint??
What is Joe Biden afraid of???
Tara Reade, the woman who has accused Joe Biden of sexual assault, is calling on the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee to release the records from his 36 years as a senator, which are currently inaccessible to the public and are kept at the University of Delaware. Biden's campaign has denied that he sexually assaulted Reade.
"I'm calling for the release of the documents being held by the University of Delaware that contain Biden's staff personnel records because I believe it will have my complaint form, as well as my separation letter and other documents," Reade told Fox News on Tuesday. "Maybe if other staffers that have tried to file complaints would come to light -- why are they under seal? And why won't they be released to the public?"
Release the records Joe.. What are you hiding??
Tara Reade blasts Hillary Clinton after Biden endorsement: She's 'enabling a sexual predator'
EXCLUSIVE: Tara Reade slammed Hillary Clinton for offering her endorsement to former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday after the former Senate staffer came forward last month with an allegation of sexual assault against the presumptive Democratic nominee.
"I voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. I voted for her in the primary. I'm a lifelong Democrat. But yet, what I see now is someone enabling a sexual predator and it was my former boss, Joe Biden, who raped me," Reade told Fox News. "Hillary Clinton has a history of enabling powerful men to cover up their sexual predatory behaviors and their inappropriate sexual misconduct. We don't need that for this country. We don't need that for our new generation coming up that wants institutional rape culture to change."
She added: "I will not be smeared, dismissed or ignored. I stand in truth and I will keep speaking out."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tara-reade-hillary-clinton-joe-biden-endorsement
Hillary Clinton endorses ANOTHER rapist and sexual predator...
Par for the course...
As I said... Tara Reade's rape criminal complaint is ***NOT*** going away....
tara reade is pro-pie? if so, i may have to re-evaluate...
You're all doomed ... some of you more than others. Good luck!
Mike Pence walked into the Mayo Clinic Hospital and defied their directive that everyone wear protective masks. Their spokesperson stated that Pence’s office was made aware of the directive prior to his visit, but Pence refused to put one on. In the photos, Pence is surrounded by people wearing masks while he remained uncovered! His press secretary stated that because he hasn’t tested positive for COVID-19, he did not need to wear a mask!
How f*cking ignorant is this administration? Trump must believe it would make HIM look scared of the virus if Pence covered his face, and Pence being the bitchboy he is he was willing to put his well-being in peril just to keep Trump’s fragile ego safe.
I am pissed that the hospital didn’t kick the idiot out for endangering their staff and patients! Their oath doesn’t bend for politicians!
Tara Reade blasts Hillary Clinton after Biden endorsement: She's 'enabling a sexual predator'
Okay, wait. Now Hillary is "enabling a sexual predator"? Oh, that is not how a victim of sexual assault suddenly refers to another woman whom she admits she voted for multiple times... and knowing full well what her history was! A bridge too far. Now we know for certain it's a right-wing hit job and a total load of bullshit.
Tara Reade now suddenly claims Joe Biden "raped" her yet she spent decades praising him and never mentioned it? How does Tara Reade not meet her own definition of "enabler" based on the criteria which she has suddenly decided to judge Hillary Clinton knowing full well what her history was and voting for her multiple times also. Yet suddenly it's Hillary who has spent years enabling rapists. Nothing but a right-wing talking point, and a definition which fit Tara Reade too.
I now do not believe her at all now. Victims do not suddenly refer to another woman as an "enabler" of powerful men when they themselves have praised the same man for his work right for decades and right up until March 2020 and suddenly he's a rapist and another woman is enabling him?
Nice try, though, the old claim to be a "victim of rape" yet you've spent multiple decades praising your "old boss" for his work and voting for him in 2008 and again in 2012 and then voting for Hillary Clinton in the primaries and in the general election in 2016 and then turn around and accuse that woman of being an enabler for endorsing the same man you praised for decades, voted for multiple times and voted for Hillary knowing full well her history... added to the two-year history of praising Putin repeatedly while criticizing America... even admiring Putin's bare torso. I don't know many victims who complain about being sexualized that would turn around and do the same thing... just saying.
So to recap: I'm calling it now... a right-wing hitjob on Joe Biden. Lost me right there, Tara. Buh-bye! I would even say she is now quite obviously an "enabler" of the right-wing smear machine.
This is also the kind of utter asinine nonsense that infuriates actual victims of sexual assault to see another woman suddenly cry victim and accuse other women of enabling sexual predators when you definitely fit your own description. This one reeks with the stench of GOP bullshit. Full stop.
Russ
82
Yep!
CW-
Lichtman's 13 keys seem a reasonable guide to calling a winner, but there is a certain element of "an infinite number or monkeys poking an infinite number of touch screens" to his perfect record.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics there are 5,660 political scientists in the USA. Ignoring 3rd party candidates, tossing a coin 9 times has just under a .2% chance of calling all 9 elections correctly. With 5660 guesses, 11 of them ought to be right, on average.