A Mail-In Voting Concern Nobody's Mentioned Yet
Everyone certainly already has a lot to worry about when it comes to the upcoming election. So I apologize in advance for adding another item to that list, but there's something that I've personally been wondering about as we all prepare for the most unique election in modern times. It's a fairly esoteric issue, but it could become a crucial one on the night of the election, as we're all glued to our television sets awaiting the outcome. What I'm wondering is: how will the standard exit polling take place when far fewer voters will be physically exiting the polls?
Exit polling is normally conducted via thousands of in-person interviews. Pollsters carefully select representative polling locations and then they stand around and ask voters who are exiting the polls how they voted (hence the name). Demographic questions are also asked, to better identify how each slice of the electorate appears to be voting. These raw numbers are then crunched and projected out for the state's populace as a whole. This provides a level of detail available nowhere else -- which groups have swung which way, and why. Crucially, though, these exit polls are also used by the mainstream media on the night of the election to project the total vote for the state even before the actual totals have been tallied up. Normally the exit polls are pretty accurate, so the television networks have a fair degree of confidence when they "call" a state for one candidate or the other. This doesn't always work perfectly, but it works pretty well overall.
So how is this all going to happen when a significant portion of the electorate isn't going to vote in person? Can the same results be achieved by random phone calls, or some other method of finding out how people voted? These are questions that may now seem esoteric but could prove to be rather important on the night of the election.
I have to admit that I don't know the actual mechanics of the exit pollsters. My concept of how these things work may already be outdated, in other words. Perhaps the pollsters have already moved on from just standing around a parking lot buttonholing voters exiting that polling location. Perhaps they're already performing most of it in some sort of digital fashion. Hopefully this is already the case, which would make my worries unfounded. But I simply don't know.
Of course, there are already five states where elections are conducted entirely by mail (or by dropping off already-completed ballots on Election Day). The problem is that all of these states are located west of the Rockies, and none of them can really be described as swing states. So there's not a whole lot of importance in figuring out exactly which demographics in (for example) either Utah or Oregon voted which way, because the outcome in both cases is pretty preordained. Also, because they are so far west, their results are almost always merely "icing on the cake" of the rest of the Electoral College outcome (due to the time zone difference). The news networks will not officially call a presidential election winner until all the polls have closed on the West Coast (tough luck, Alaska and Hawaii... but it's still better than it used to be, when winners were regularly proclaimed before California's polls had even closed). But it has become standard for the winners to be called mere seconds after the West Coast polls close, mostly because other than Arizona and Nevada, there just aren't any states that far west which are even ever in question in presidential races. To put this another way, nobody really cares at that point what the exit polls say in Utah or Oregon, because the bigger story has already been announced.
But this time around important states on the East Coast and in the heartland will also have huge percentages of mail-in votes. This will include most of (if not all of) the battleground states as well. So the question of exit polling those mail-in voters becomes a lot more important.
We're already all beginning to get used to the concept that we may not know who won on the night of the election. Even President Trump now realizes that this might indeed be the case (although he's not exactly taking the news well). With so many mail-in ballots to count, and with laws in place that forbid the counting of such ballots until Election Day itself, if any particular state is very close, it may be days before a winner is declared. But there's no inherent right of the citizens to know the outcome on Election Day (no matter what Trump thinks about it). If we have to wait, then we have to wait, plain and simple. Elections officials across the country -- of both parties -- have sworn that "getting it right" is far more important than "getting it quickly." And they're right -- accuracy is far more important than impatience.
Still, this situation might be exacerbated if not just the actual ballot count is affected by the changes in the way people are voting this year, but also the way the exit polling is conducted. Those exit polls are a critical piece of how the political wonks predict the winners in each state, after all, so on the night of the election, they may be hamstrung not only by the slowness of the results being posted but also by being largely in the dark about which way the outstanding votes will likely fall.
Again, perhaps I am being too pessimistic. Perhaps the pollsters have already modernized this entire process, and the notion that people with clipboards are standing around polling station parking lots is already outdated (if not antiquated). Or perhaps the pollsters have already figured out how to do accurate exit polls in the Western states that already have universal mail-in voting, and they'll just have to scale this effort up to all the rest of the states this year. One would certainly like to think so, if only because we all certainly don't need yet another thing to worry about on election night.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
OK, answering some comments... just finished yesterday...
-CW
Couple of comments for Tuesday -
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/08/04/is-trump-shooting-himself-in-the-foot-in-florida/#comment-166981
-CW
I've got to hand it to you. You are the first one I've seen mention it.
OK, that's it for this week. I'll try to get to last Friday and Thursday later on...
-CW
John From Censornati [3] -
Well, it's been in the back of my mind for a while, and I kept waiting for someone else to bring it up... but they didn't.
-CW
Archbishop Degenerate J Pussygrabber delivers his Sunday sermon:
Joe Biden wants to hurt the Bible. Joe Biden wants to hurt God, but God understands the problem of character and realizes that not only are Democrats unfit morally for Heaven, but they would choose to leave Heaven due to discomfort with incompatible ends. If God were to welcome the wicked into Heaven and make some allowances so that they would choose to stay, they would jeopardize the stability of the Heavenly Lifestyle. The radical goals of these selfish Democrats would be at continual odds with those of God and the righteous citizens, throwing Heaven into turmoil and ultimately inciting insurrection, anarchy, carnage, and destruction. Thus, God is obligated by His commitment to perfect, beautiful peace and harmony in Heaven to confine those who have chosen self as their sole end to a place appropriate to their character.
Since they love darkness rather than light, God gives them over to darkness. Since they love themselves supremely, God gives them an eternity to satisfy themselves. Since they love wickedness, He gives them wicked companions. Since they love to mock the blessings of God and His love, God gives them a place devoid of Him and His love. You see, God even loves the feminists, socialists, and anarchists and gives them exactly what they desire. Eternal misery and suffering is the most loving thing that God can offer the unrepentant sinner.
God is love.
K, I went off the elsewhere on the Interwebs and didn't find any link that suggested that exit polling happens in any manner besides face to face interviews of (wait for it!) exiting voters. A pollster may ask every third or maybe every fifth exiting voter and they have a lot of statistical tools to extrapolate the data to the larger electorate.
From a WaPo article titled,
How exit polls work, explained
Since 2003, Edison has been conducting polling for the National Election Pool (NEP), a group of six media organizations that includes Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC and the Associated Press.
[6]
Dude, that's a marvelous commenting effort there. I do appreciate said efforts -- there's a lot of talent here in Weigantia, a-yup.
Interesting angle on what else could go wrong with Election night this November.
It seems to me that this is on the so-called mainstream media, that is, the responsible professional networks and papers that actually have staff and go out and report from the field.
Are they going to acknowledge ahead of time that exit polling will be inherently more unreliable this year, or will they just wing it because that's the way they've always done it?
I would love to hear NBC (for instance) say, as the Election Night live broadcast drones on, "Once again, folks, we'll remind you that NBC will not be predicting the election's outcome tonight. That's why we are not giving you our usual wall-sized map of states going red or blue, but are instead focusing on voter interviews at ballot places across the country. With the amount of mail-in voting this year in all the major electoral vote states, it would be irresponsible for us to project how states are voting tonight, and we apologize if this is a disappointment.
"As journalists and citizens, we are as upset as you are, but it just wouldn't be honest for us to say tonight, or even to suggest, whether President Trump or former Vice-president Biden is ahead in the race for the presidency. We won't know anything for sure for at least a week. Stay tuned to NBC News for further coverage from the polling places of America as, tonight, America Decides!"
Even as I wrote this snark, I realized what a blow to Election Night coverage it would be if the giant USA map can't be shown going red, red, blue, red, blue, blue, ... all night. That's what Election Night TV coverage is.
It will take a lot of moral, and fiscal (lower ratings), courage for the networks and papers to forego their usual reporting of 'breaking news' about an election that is decided hours or days before anyone counts the ballots. I'm having a hard time believing the media industry will change its spots here, after watching them continue to treat the current president as if his spoken or written remarks, which are largely lies or fantasies or race-baiting provocations, were important facts about the US government's policies that need reporting with minimal commentary.
[9]
John M from Ct. wrote:
It will take a lot of moral, and fiscal (lower ratings), courage for the networks and papers to forego their usual reporting of 'breaking news' about an election that is decided hours or days before anyone counts the ballots. I'm having a hard time believing the media industry will change its spots here, after watching them continue to treat the current president as if his spoken or written remarks, which are largely lies or fantasies or race-baiting provocations, were important facts about the US government's policies that need reporting with minimal commentary.
Yeah, no kidding.
"In order to be 'fair' we'll present the liar's side along with reality, and not call the liar a liar."
As much as I looove Rachel Maddie, I've often wondered if she's there to take the edge off us hard-core Progressives.
God-damned auto correct?
Rachel Maddow
Folks I'm waiting until my spinal fusion surgery at the VA happens (they call it elective) and meanwhile I'm losing functionality in my hands. And I'm doing all this commentary on a smart phone.
No excuse for for not not proofreading, I suppose.
Chris,
One would certainly like to think so, if only because we all certainly don't need yet another thing to worry about on election night.
Yeah, well ... I, for one, am planning to get plastered on election night BEFORE the results start coming in. I've already booked Wednesday and Thursday off work. Heh.
How about a little musical interlude for this evening?
I just found out about a gem of a radio station, by way of Al Harlow of Prism fame.
The radio station is WRCT 88.3 FM out of Pittsburgh. The show, in particular, is Court's In Session with DJ Eric Jackson Lurie, a rockin' attorney, on every Thursday evening, 8-10:30pm, with a focus on New Music from Classic Artists.
http://www.wrct.org/show/915/
Check it out - for the sheer fun of it!
CW: What I'm wondering is: how will the standard exit polling take place when far fewer voters will be physically exiting the polls?
We know the answer because of the primaries still going on and the way they've been handled there and also the way they've been handling exit polling for years in those states where they've already completely adopted or are in transition to mail-in voting.
As for those states who vote largely via mail already, they're used to it. They simply conduct polls of registered voters on Election Day like they've been doing. Most of them are slam-dunk Democratic anyway: California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Utah is slam-dunk Republican. Colorado is the only one even remotely considered a swing state, and I don't really think it's a swing state at all but a fairly reliable Blue state.
So unless they make their phone calls to registered voters on election day and it looks like Utah is going to go Democratic (don't hold your breath, of course) or one of the Pacific Coastal states is flipping Red (not a snowball's chance in Hell, y'all know), then a whole lot of this will be handled like usual and fairly standard stuff. Colorado is literally the closest thing to a mail-in ballot "swing state" where their election day polling will tell them right straight away if anything is out of the ordinary or unexpected.
As for the other states, less in-person voting has naturally resulted in less in-person polling places with lots of potential voters to answer exit polling. When coronavirus altered the primaries for obvious reasons, Edison Research (they handle exit polling for the bigly networks) supplied a written questionnaire and personal protection equipment and asked voters to respond on paper, and they got enough written responses to assess the data.
Could these unusual "coronavirus conditions" result in wonky exit polling data? Yes, sir. :)
Full disclosure: I post comments as I read... so I would wager you've probably covered a whole lot of what I already posted. Apologies if I repeated you.
Now I wonder if I could find some information about the way they're handling exit polling data in 2020. *be right back*
Found some:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/08/04/election-night-think-again-election-month-might-be-more-like-it/
John From Censornati
6
God is love.
Has Archbishop P read the Old Testament?
Elizabeth Miller
14
Check it out - for the sheer fun of it!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now Playing: Automation
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hey, speaking of music, did y'all hear the White House played "Live and Let Die" before the scheduled speech in Ohio at Whirlpool... during the middle of a pandemic where hundreds of thousands of Americans are going to die? Just kidding; they aren't that dang stupid.
Nope... not kidding:
https://www.blabbermouth.net/news/guns-n-roses-cover-of-live-and-let-die-played-before-trumps-speech-in-ohio/
Kind of like, 'I don't care, do you'. Runs in the family, I guess.
By the way, Queen made an appearance on Court's In Session tonight - a tune off their album released just after Freddie Mercury's death.
And, ZZ Top were there, too, from your neck of the woods!
Elizabeth Miller
18
Kind of like, 'I don't care, do you'. Runs in the family, I guess.
Yes, ma'am, they are tone-deaf... pun intended.
By the way, Queen made an appearance on Court's In Session tonight - a tune off their album released just after Freddie Mercury's death.
Queen didn't release an album "just after" Freddie's death, but they did release Innuendo the same year he died... maybe they sang a song from Innuendo like "The Show Must Go On." Queen's album Made in Heaven released after Freddie's death was four years in the making.
And, ZZ Top were there, too, from your neck of the woods!
Yes, ma'am! Only a place as diverse as Houston could produce Beyoncé, Kenny Rogers, and ZZ Top:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vppbdf-qtGU
Kick [16}
God believes that it's important for the righteous to judge the wicked, so instead of informing Democrats that "God loves you", it would be more accurate to say that, "God wants to love you." The real issue is not the fact that God loves humanity for this is commonly accepted as fact except among the unbelievers. God takes no delight in the suffering of the wicked. It is Satan and his demons who torment the lost.
God is love.
No anything? Why is Joe against that? Why does he hate energy? Send him back to Thighland!
OK, haven't read all of these comments yet, but while doing research for tomorrow's column, came across an excellent and sober look at what we can all expect on election night. From the article:
"Normally, races are called based on a number of factors: what’s expected in various regions, what has been counted already, exit polling. Exit polling is a bit of a question mark this year, given both the number of absentee votes and the likely inability to poll at polling places because of the pandemic. But exit pollsters such as Edison Media Research have built absentee voting into their systems and had a dry run at exit polling mid-pandemic during the primaries."
There's a link within that quote, which links to an even better article on exit polling.
If I'd read these before I wrote this, I would have included some of this info...
-CW
"just after", 'four years after', the point is it was released 'after' ... anyway, that was MY mistake not the dj's, just to be clear; that rockin' attorney also played Cheap Trick's Tell Me Everything, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQyGYe8L7O4
And, speaking of music, I have some very big rock 'n roll news to share on Sunday night at the CW Sunday Night Music Festival and Dance Party!
It's so big that I'm not sure I'll be able to hold it in until then ... it was just announced earlier this week and I still can't believe it!
Okay, okay ... here's a little hint ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGyOaCXr8Lw
Can I just say how refreshingly lively and intelligent and pleasant to read this comments section has been lately?
It can stay that way, John, even after you know who shows up. It's all up to us.
Are you a Stones fan?
Do exit polls really matter? They are just the last possible snap poll.
I think we may be obsessing over what amounts to a technology shift away from polling places towards mail in voting. The only "poll" that matters is the actual vote count - and even with best of intentions - that count never going to be perfect.
Kick-17 What were they thinking? Or maybe the better question is: when did they stop thinking and was alcohol a factor.
Speaking of pushing the pop musical envelope in The Time of Covid : Bardcore.
Rearranging pop music for "medieval" instruments, and lyrics. Often the instruments and lyrics are closer to Elizabethan, but it's clever and listenable in a Weird Al sort of way.
Pumped Up Kick (Hildegard von Blingin')
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRIfsFefatg
LizM [27],
Haha. It all up to us to not pollute the place with spam.
It's up to us to ignore it. I've learned that it's very easy to do.
LizM [28},
The Cancel Virus ended their tour plans, but Cancel Culture hasn't caught up with the Glimmer Twins yet. Enjoy it while you can.
cancelled
I'll be enjoying it for at least the next year and a half, baby!
You won't soon forget the summer of '21, yeah.
What happens in 18 months?
You must wait.
I'm practically busting at the seams.
Gov. Dewine's second COVID test came up negative. I assume there will be a tie breaker.
MtnCaddy [12],
I'm waiting until my spinal fusion surgery at the VA happens (they call it elective) and meanwhile I'm losing functionality in my hands.
That's awful. I completely lost the use of my left hand, but have recovered significantly thanks to neuroplasticity. I don't know if that will help you. It involves a lot of repetition. Good luck with your surgery.
Yes, MtnCaddy, the very best wishes for your surgery. I hope your wait is not long.
And, here's a favourite tune to go along with that ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BYoQiI71jc
According to CBS News Dewine's first test was an antibody screening and those are known to have a very high false positive rate. The second test was a much more reliable PCR, and a third PCR also came up negative.
So, Dewine is in little danger, and he dodged a meet and greet he likely didn't want to attend.
Facebook removes troll farm posing as African-American support for Donald Trump.
Facebook also removed hundreds of fake accounts linked to conservative media outlet The Epoch Times.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-removes-troll-farm-posing-african-american-support-donald-trump-n1236056
Michale was posting a bunch of the Epoch Times articles. Sounds like he was duped by a troll farm. How apropos...
Sounds like he was duped by a troll farm.
That's a very charitable assessment, Bashi.
Ah, well.
There goes the neighborhood.
On todays episode of Lost in trumplation, with artists to source good music from getting scarce, someone made the smart choice for pre-show music in Ohio and decided to play Live and Let die from Guns and Roses.
You just can't make this stuff up.
Elizabeth Miller
23
"just after", 'four years after', the point is it was released 'after' ... anyway, that was MY mistake not the dj's, just to be clear;
No worries. I was just trying to figure out what song it was. I couldn't even imagine what song they'd be singing off Made In Heaven, but I could definitely imagine them singing a song off Innuendo. :)
. . that rockin' attorney also played Cheap Trick's Tell Me Everything.
Oh, Cheap Trick... another good one. :)
Kick,
I remember that rockin' attorney talking about Made in Heavan and Innuendo but, I can't remember what.
What's so neat about Court's in Session on WRCT 88.3 FM in Pittsburgh is that it's all about classic rock artists with a big focus on NEW stuff from them. He did mention a few times that Boston is due for a new album!
Don[47],
Heh.
You're pretty much behind the times, then ... :)
John From Censornati
20
God takes no delight in the suffering of the wicked.
Here let me help you: Old Testament... Exodus. ;)
It is Satan and his demons who torment the lost.
I see you read Bashi's medieval history... as did I.
Now how will I sleep at night?
John From Censornati
21
No anything? Why is Joe against that?
He hates everything.
Why does he hate energy?
Dopey says Sleepy is against "our kind of energy."
Send him back to Thighland!
Heh. Sounds like a good name for a fried chicken joint at Disney World.
"Sleepy, you just beat Dopey for the presidency of the United States. What are you going to do next? I'm going to Thighland!"
Yes, I need a drink; it's five o'clock somewhere. :)
Elizabeth Miller
25
Okay, okay ... here's a little hint ...
One man's "little hint" is another man's "giant honking clue." Heh. *grin*
Ha!
Hope it wasn't THAT obvious. :)
I need a drink; it's five o'clock
Five O'clock Angel
Re " . . on the night of the election, when we're all glued to our television sets . ."
Sweet Jesus, don't any of you guys have a real life???
TheStig
29
Kick-17 What were they thinking? Or maybe the better question is: when did they stop thinking and was alcohol a factor.
Oh, their obvious hatred for "others" was likely a factor. Sad.
Pumped Up Kicks (Hildegard von Blingin')
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRIfsFefatg
*
*
Artless, greasy tallow-catch! So then, a "keech." Aye, I'll definitely be keeping that one in my quiver, I can assure you that, good sire. ;)
TheStig
38
Gov. Dewine's second COVID test came up negative. I assume there will be a tie breaker.
Yes, sir. There was a tie breaker. :)
TheStig
41
According to CBS News Dewine's first test was an antibody screening and those are known to have a very high false positive rate. The second test was a much more reliable PCR, and a third PCR also came up negative.
Well aren't you a greasy tallow-catch? I was going to keep you in suspense like EM is doing! ;)
BashiBazouk
42
Heh.
Uh, oh. Sounds like Facebook might be getting perilously close to removing the QAnon conspiracy drivel and spew for the inherently gullible Trump cultists. Say it ain't so. ;)
Seriously, though, on Facebook there is a lot of antiscience misinformation regarding SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 being propagated by Russia on behalf of Trump, and this is helping to fuel the deaths of Americans.
Yes, the President of the United States is promoting information that is killing Americans and doing nothing to discourage Russia doing it. How sad.
He should be tarred and feathered and run out of town!
Don Harris
47
I have answered the comments worth answering on Electoral Math- Biden Looks Solid.
* Is this your Chris Weigant impression?
* Are we supposed to care?
* Why don't you get your own blog instead of polluting CW's?
^^^^^ All rhetorical questions. ^^^^^
John From Censornati
56
Five O'clock Angel
Oh, I like this... and I got sangria. :)
C. R. Stucki
57
Sweet Jesus, don't any of you guys have a real life???
When did you stop beating your wife?
Elizabeth Miller
62
He should be tarred and feathered and run out of town!
If we do a right proper job of tar and feathering, he won't be able to run. ;)
Kick,
Yes, the President of the United States is promoting information that is killing Americans and doing nothing to discourage Russia doing it. How sad.
If he won’t speak up to prevent our military from being killed for rubles, did ya really think he’d care about people he cannot order to parade before him?
Maybe we should start acting like Facebook IS responsible for American deaths (it should be easy since they ARE) and demand their heads on a platter if it is allowed to continue? I hope that we will see more people being held legally liable for their promotion of disinformation that results in people being harmed once Trump is gone — Barr just seems interested in silencing the truth and promoting more disinformation.
Run out of town on the, ah, rails!
How Sweet is This?
The NBA is converting arenas into giant polling places:
* Atlanta Hawks - Early voting begins next Monday, July 20 for the Georgia general primary runoff election. In addition, the State Farm Arena venue will be used for early voting ahead of the General Election, beginning Oct. 12, 2020.
* Charlotte Hornets - The Hornets announced Wednesday that Spectrum Center would host early voting Oct. 15 through Oct. 31. Voting hours will be 8 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. on weekdays, 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Saturdays and 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. on Sundays.
* Detroit Pistons - The Henry Ford Pistons Performance Center will become a satellite center for the Nov. 3 election, where people can register and vote on site, and Aug. 4 and Nov. 3 are company-wide paid days off to ensure all employees can vote and volunteer as election workers, should they choose.
* Milwaukee Bucks - The Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday announced an effort to partner with basketball star LeBron James’ voting rights group More Than A Vote to make Fiserv Forum available as a potential voting site.
* Sacramento Kings - The Sacramento Kings say they are turning Golden 1 Center into a vote center for the upcoming November election.
^^^^^ That's what I'm talking about. #WeWillVote ^^^^^
ListenWhenYouHear
67
If he won’t speak up to prevent our military from being killed for rubles, did ya really think he’d care about people he cannot order to parade before him?
Of course, we go way back knowing he would not:
*
I wasn't kidding, you know.
Maybe we should start acting like Facebook IS responsible for American deaths (it should be easy since they ARE) and demand their heads on a platter if it is allowed to continue?
Their employees are starting to get vocal, that's for sure.
I hope that we will see more people being held legally liable for their promotion of disinformation that results in people being harmed once Trump is gone — Barr just seems interested in silencing the truth and promoting more disinformation.
Yes, sir. In the same way I refer to Donald Trump as "Benedict Donald," I've begun referring to Bill Barr as "Bill Burr." #Hamilton
[69] Kick wrote:
How Sweet is This?
Far and away the best news of my day. May the competition grow until every team wants in.
I'm guessing a lot of teams will need to shame their election officials and/or team owners, so let the games begin!