Here We Go Again
Here we go again. It's like we all woke up today in the year 2000. Lawsuits are being filed, votes are still being counted, and several key states have not been called yet. There is no winner, although as of this writing it certainly seems like Biden's got a clear edge. But, just like in 2000, that can always change.
The good news (such as it is) is that so far Team Trump hasn't come up with any single example of even suspicious behavior, much less outright wrongdoing. If they had, you can bet that we'd all have heard about it by now. Instead, they are left filing lawsuits that the Pennsylvania attorney general characterized as "more of a partisan document than a legal one." Believing you won and tweeting about it is one thing, but proving you won in court is a lot harder to do, in other words.
Nevertheless, one thing can be accurately said at this point, and that is that while Donald Trump may ultimately be defeated, the election was not a sweeping repudiation of Trumpism. Trumpism is going to be around for a lot longer than Trump, it seems. And that doesn't bode well for the future of either the Republican Party or American politics in general.
We always knew Trump would claim he was cheated out of a victory if he lost. Unsurprisingly, that is precisely what he's doing now. But the real question is how the public is going to react. Americans aren't big fans of sore losers, and Trump (who loves superlatives, of course) is going to be the sorest of sore losers.
Trump is one thing, but Republicans holding onto the Senate is another. If this comes to pass (right now they have the edge, but we may have to wait until January for Georgia to hold its runoff election to really find out), then Mitch McConnell is going to do to Joe Biden exactly what he did to Barack Obama -- block anything and everything Biden tries to do. This could lead to at least two years of absolute legislative gridlock.
For the time being, we await further results. We may be waiting for days, in fact. But again, this was predicted by many beforehand. Next up will be recounts, where we'll all relive the anxiety over "hanging chads" again. The actual chads are gone, but the challenges to each and every Democratic vote will be ferocious all the same. This is going to take weeks, most likely.
We all wanted some certainty last night. We didn't get it. So we wait. Eventually, this will end up in the courts, and we'll have to wait to hear what they have to say about things. Just like in 2000. Or, to put it another way: here we go again.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
By now it looks like Biden has this in the bag. Now the real nightmare begins. For if Mitch retains the Senate Joe Biden will be a Dead Man Walking. The Dems will be able to accomplish NOTHING for two years. Please read this piece by Paul Waldman in the Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/mitch-mcconnells-senate-will-be-where-biden-presidency-goes-die/
Joe Biden ain't gonna be no dead man walking!!!
And, who the heck is Paul Waldman, anyway?
Someone who doesn't know Biden, for one thing. :)
This line from the much-vaunted Electoral Vote dot Com coverage last night, which I skipped but checked in on today, really got under my skin:
"There was no blue tsunami, and there are quite a few pollsters that are going to need to do postmortems on their methodology."
And that's what really stands out. Although Biden may win by the hair's breadth that Clinton lost by, this was no blow-out repudiation of Trump's GOP. It is a "damn close-run thing", and although I will be very glad indeed if Biden does indeed cross the pond of snapping alligators alive, I am already tired of the next two years of "making Joe Biden a one-term president" as being McConnell's reason for living.
So why were the polls, evidently, wrong enough to convey the impression that more was more - that the Dems weren't just going to win, but were going to win big enough to make a difference in the direction the country is going in?
Methodology?? I'll show you methodology. I can't say how many articles I read this fall about how, "Oh no we pollsters learned a lot from the 2016 debacle. Our methodology is so much better this year.
"Why, look at Michigan! As EV.com documents, the last ten polls in Michigan show Biden ahead by eight points, on November 3rd! Can't get much better than that, eh? And yes, this time we included the educational level of the white men that we forgot to figure in last time.
"So count on those eight points in Michigan folks, and look away to Texas and North Carolina and those other juicy parts of a mid-300s EV landslide for Uncle Joe."
Humph.
Chris,
... while Donald Trump may ultimately be defeated, the election was not a sweeping repudiation of Trumpism. Trumpism is going to be around for a lot longer than Trump, it seems. And that doesn't bode well for the future of either the Republican Party or American politics in general.
It doesn't have to be that way, though, at least not for American politics in general. Which is why I know that Democrats chose extremely well when they nominated Biden.
John,
So why were the polls, evidently, wrong enough to convey the impression that more was more - that the Dems weren't just going to win, but were going to win big enough to make a difference in the direction the country is going in?
Do you want me to answer that?
If Joe Biden is elected, then that right there is going to be HUGE when it comes to making a difference in the direction the country is going in.
Of course, it won't be easy but, there is no better person for the job, period!
As for the bad polls and media reports ... well, as a wise political analyst put it tonight to me, GIGO, garbage in, garbage out. I know, I know ... shocking, positively shocking.
Elizabeth re [6]
It was a rhetorical question. But if you have a comment or answer who am I to say no?
I answered! Do you have a reply? :)
Can you tell - I'm in a much better mood tonight as compared to last night. Heh.
So count on those eight points in Michigan folks, and look away to Texas and North Carolina and those other juicy parts of a mid-300s EV landslide for Uncle Joe."
Hey, John, Biden may actually surpass 300 EVs. Woo Hoo!
LizM -
306 seems to be do-able. NV, PA, and GA, but not NC.
Wasn't that the exact number Trump won in 2016? It's pretty close, if memory serves...
-CW
Could be. Who really cares. :-)
I can't seem to wipe the smile off my face tonight.
Trump who?
Getting a bit nervous about Arizona now. The last batch of votes from Maricopa actually favored Trump, allowing him to make up about 14k votes. Only trails by 79k with over 400k votes to count.
Elizabeth, on [7]/[9]:
You said, responding to my question why the polls were so much more positive for Biden than the voting has been, "As for the bad polls and media reports ... well, as a wise political analyst put it tonight to me, GIGO, garbage in, garbage out. I know, I know ... shocking, positively shocking."
Well, that's not really an answer, being along the lines of they were wrong because they were wrong. Can we drill a little deeper? Why did all the polls - ten different reputable pollsters, in the case of Michigan on the EV.com site - take in the same garbage? And this especially when four years ago they blew the same problem by about the same amount. The error last time put Clinton under; this time it left Uncle Joe barely breathing above the surface. And it wasn't just Michigan, it was state after state, on both the presidential and senatorial races.
If Biden does crawl above the 300 floor, that will be nice. But just like Trump, as CW notes, it will be by taking a bare minimum number of key states by bare minimum majorities. But the mid-300s 'safe plus mostly safe' totals that EV.com documented in extensive polling right down to election day, as Chris showed us in his run-up reports, were not based on 1 or 1/2 point victories. Biden was supposed to basically sweep MI, WI, and PA by healthy margins, leaving the really sketchy purply-red states to go for him by the scanty numbers.
Garbage in garbage out doesn't say what happened here. Nor do I expect anyone to know the answer at this point. But the entire political polling profession blew it again, a second election in a row, with the only saving grace being that Biden was a slightly better candidate against a slightly weaker Trump.
John M from Ct -
I certainly don't have the answer, but let's just see how badly wrong they were first. Nationally, Biden could still win by like 6 million votes (CA counts notoriously slowly), which is twice Hillary's margin. And there were states where the polling did turn out right -- FL and NC were nail-biters, just as the polls said. I haven't looked at all the states and compared what happened to what was predicted, but it's certainly worth looking at more than just the ones everyone is concentrating on right now, to fully answer your question. Believe me, I want to know what that answer will be too, but it may take a while before any answers become clear.
-CW
John,
I've learned not to take polls too seriously, ever. Sorry if my answer seemed a bit flippant.
It seems that the economy was on the minds of voters far more intensely than the pandemic and I'm not sure why pollsters didn't double down on that and understand that Republicans still own economic issues - incomprehensibly, in my opinion.
So, if Democrats want to win landslide elections, they had better learn how to expose the Republican cult of economic failure for what it is - bad for the middle class.
EM #2 - The point is that it doesn't matter who the Dem President is even Biden will be impotent to get anything accomplished with Mitch stopping him at every turn. Mitch defeated Obama and he will defeat ANY Dem. It is the structure of our government. The ONLY thing Mitch wants is to stop the democratic agenda so there is nothing to trade with him. He has no agenda of his own, only to stop Biden. You should read the link and learn about all the powers Mitch has to roadblock Biden & Co.
SF Bear,
Biden's ability to get things done should not be underestimated. Not in the least because he is the polar opposite to Trump in terms of political leadership. Also, the coronavirus epidemic in the US is still raging and will get worse through Jan 2021 and Biden's first priority will be to persuade the American people and their representatives and senators - Republican and Democrat, alike - that American lives and livelihoods
must be protected and he'll have a plan to do just that.
I would like to see McConnell try to block such an agenda as that and expect not to pay mightily for it.
John M #16 - You touched on the real problem, even with Biden winning the huge support for Trump perfectly illustrates the magnitude of this nations decadence. None of us wanted to believe what this says about the depths of our venality,racism and misogyny. I never would have believed so many people could support the values that Trump represents, so of course we were going to repudiate him. After he made it abundantly clear just who he is how could any decent person support him? Well now we know just how many of them there are.
Chris Weigant
12
306 seems to be do-able. NV, PA, and GA, but not NC.
Exactly! Georgia still has a ton of votes outstanding and isn't over yet. I mentioned this (checks watch) a hundred hours ago! ;)
Wasn't that the exact number Trump won in 2016? It's pretty close, if memory serves...
Yes, sir... but Trump had two faithless electors and wound up with 304. :)
EM #7 Perhaps you will explain just how Saint Biden is going to make a "HUGE" difference without the US Senate? He will not be able to make a single appointment, no Cabinet Secretaries not even a Postmaster. He will not be able to appoint a single judge, he could not appoint a Supreme Court justice even if one became vacant. He can not sign into law any of the great bills that Nancy midwifes through the House. Without the Senate Biden and the rest of us are well and truly fucked.
I never would have believed so many people could support the values that Trump represents, so of course we were going to repudiate him. After he made it abundantly clear just who he is how could any decent person support him? Well now we know just how many of them there are.
Is it really that so many people support Trump 'values' or could it be that people have just lost faith in traditional Democratic and Republican regimes, both of which have done perceptibly little to improve the lives and livelihoods of regular people. In other words, the political elites and insiders keep doing fine as it gets harder and harder for regular people to make ends meet.
And, then comes along a guy like Trump who says he's tired of seeing the US and its people being treated like suckers and he's not going to take it anymore.
What have Democrats done to change Trump's false narrative on the kitchen table economic issues? Not nearly enough, obviously. :(
CW: The good news (such as it is) is that so far Team Trump hasn't come up with any single example of even suspicious behavior, much less outright wrongdoing.
The only suspicious behavior is that shit Trump pulled last night at the White House when he declared that he won and whined like a toddler about going to the Supreme Court. Go back and roll tape on that one; Trump's body language and whimpering says it all, and he is pitifully close to crying. "We're going to the Supreme Court" *laughs* Why would you go to the Supreme Court if you knew you were leading. Also, there are rules, and you can't just "go to the Supreme Court" and make the counting stop.
Poor Donald. He's now been impeached and lost the popular vote in back-to-back elections. Heh. :)
SF Bear,
Oh, ye of the little faith.
If anyone can find a way to speak directly to the American people and especially to the people who did not vote for him, then Biden is your guy. If any Democratic president can find a way to make enough Republicans in the senate work with him to improve the lives and livelihoods of all Americans, regardless of political party, then Biden is the guy who can make that happen.
Don't be surprised if Biden takes his case and arguments directly to the people of Kentucky if you know who doesn't work with him in the best interests of the American people!
Can you imagine socially distanced and masked presidential rallies with the expressed intent to bring the country together to move forward?
Go back and roll tape on that one
Perish the thought!
Poor Donald. He's now been impeached and lost the popular vote in back-to-back elections. Heh. :)
Impeached but still in office. Lost popular vote but still the president.
CW: We always knew Trump would claim he was cheated out of a victory if he lost.
First, Trump had the USPS sabotaged. Then, when multiple states were trying to change their procedures to allow them to begin counting ballots before the election, he sued them in court to keep them from counting. Then, he demanded they stop counting and whined about suing to make them stop. This was all by design. It was Trump who insisted they not begin counting until election day, and then Trump who whined about counting.
Imagine how stupid Biden would have looked to demand they stop counting the votes in multiple states when he was ahead because they counted the mail-in ballots first. Ridiculous! Trump went to court and set up this scenario, and it's pathetic. Meanwhile, true to form, he whines about Arizona and demands they keep counting the ballots.
Morons! This. Was. By. Design. And the Supreme Court won't change the rules that Trump sued the individual states in order to create.
But the real question is how the public is going to react.
They will whine about the scenario Trump sued to create and claim it isn't fair... exactly why he demanded that ballots not be counted until election day even though multiple states had tried to change their rules to count earlier to avoid such a scenario. Wake up, Trump Cult sheeple; you're being conned again. Connect the dots. :)
Wake up, Trump Cult sheeple; you're being conned again. Connect the dots. :)
I think Biden, if elected, might try a different approach with Trump supporters. And, it's going to be so much fun to watch!
Kick [25] -
Agreed. "Stop the counting and declare me the winner" is not actually a legal strategy, in front of ANY court. And that's pretty much exactly what Trump wants his lawyers to do. Luckily, he's put Rudy Giuliani on the case, so that may kill his chances right there. It's been a long time since Rudy's been a competent lawyer...
-CW
Hey, Chris, have you seen this Neil Young Hemp Oil piece!?
https://sheartracking.online/blogs/news/why?fbclid=IwAR1dGsxyUOmPPKXeBlDwOa46YnGWpNGxhZWi0BiHx_WJ2U89KuekI4wpIkk
So now Trump offers this shit show election to go along with his shitshow first debate shitshow.
Elizabeth Miller
28
Impeached but still in office. Lost popular vote but still the president.
Did you think I needed that explained to me? Rhetorical question.
Biden literally statistically put the election basically out of Trump's reach last night when he did two things:
(1) He flipped that Nebraska district.
(2) He flipped Arizona.
CW explained this beautifully in his post at [57].
Winning Arizona and Nebraska 2nd CD wasn't a mistake. It was a plan that was designed and executed flawlessly. Thank you, John McCain.
It was only a matter of counting the votes at that point... the votes Trump had gone to court to sue to make them wait until election day to start counting. :)
CW explained this beautifully in his post at [57].
Heh. What?
Elizabeth Miller
10
Can you tell - I'm in a much better mood tonight as compared to last night. Heh.
I almost attempted to explain things to you last night, and I almost posted that you were embarrassing yourself. Almost.
While it's technically statistically not "unpossible" that Arizona winds up being won by Trump and a not "unpossible" other batch of statistical things could happen, Biden had basically won last night. He knew it, and Trump knew it... that it was only a matter of counting those ballots that Trump had sued to keep them from counting until election day. Biden will win Pennsylvania. :)
Well, you know, I'm a worrier. That's what I do. It's my thing.
Plus, I got caught in the Red Mirage. Would not wish that experience on anyone.
Chris Weigant
31
Yes, sir. It won't work. Lawyers have been busy for months with Trump suing to set up this scenario. If Trump hadn't sued those states from counting ballots earlier, Biden would have been declared the winner on election night, and Trump couldn't have that... he needed this scenario in order to con the gullible minions that he was cheated. It's pathetic that we have a president who doesn't give a shit about America, We the People, or our democracy... the reason I've always referred to him as Benedict Donald. You think he's kidding about leaving the country? He isn't. He'll shit all over it on his way out and is a counterintelligence risk, but I digress.
Biden built a Blue Wall, and Trump is going to pay for it. :)
Luckily, he's put Rudy Giuliani on the case, so that may kill his chances right there. It's been a long time since Rudy's been a competent lawyer.
Hard to believe he was once Comey's boss. How far he has fallen and lost his damn mind. Rudy also is a giant honking counterintelligence risk. If he manages to avoid incarceration and navigate all the legal landmines, I'm sure Sacha Baron Cohen will be happy to "cast" Rudy G in his next movie. :)
[4] John M from Ct.
Try this critical thinking exercise...
What if the pollsters were right in both 2016 and 2020?
Mopshell on [39]
Not sure I follow you.
Do you mean what if they'd been right and Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 and then (for some reason) Biden had succeeded her with even bigger margins in 2020?
Or do you mean what if they were right in both elections with their small-print caveats about margin of error and it's all just probability so don't blame us if we're wrong?
Heh.
[16] John M from Ct.
Can we drill a little deeper?
Yes, good idea, let's do that.
the entire political polling profession blew it again
Rule of analysis: don't assume, ask questions.
Why did all the polls - ten different reputable pollsters, in the case of Michigan on the EV.com site - take in the same garbage? And this especially when four years ago they blew the same problem by about the same amount.
By about the same amount, huh? That's a coincidence.
Now ask the question:
What if the pollsters were right?
[40] John M from Ct.
I don't mean either of those things so let me try rewording it.
The assumption is that the pollsters were wrong in 2016 and 2020. Why did people jump to that conclusion? What is it they are taking for granted as right in order to make the pollsters wrong?
Mopshell
39
Try this critical thinking exercise...
What if the pollsters were right in both 2016 and 2020?
Try this critical thinking exercise which begins with a question: Are you completely unaware that it was indeed you who posted a scenario recently on this very forum whereby the Democratic Party would have 60 Senate seats? And then some nice person came along and explained the magical thinking you were displaying? Which magical thinking, I would wager, was based on the polling which John M rightly points out was nuts... which made you appear... nuts. :)
Elizabeth Miller
41
Heh.
Exactly! :)
Mopshell
42
Yes, good idea, let's do that.
You don't want to do that... trust me on this.
Rule of analysis: don't assume, ask questions.
Heh.
What if the pollsters were right?
What if you were right about those 60 Senate seats? John M is right that they were nuts, and you were nuts for predicting 60 seats in the Senate based on them being nuts. Any more questions? Just ask. :)
Mopshell
43
I don't mean either of those things so let me try rewording it.
Don't bother.
The assumption is that the pollsters were wrong in 2016 and 2020. Why did people jump to that conclusion?
Ask yourself this: Why did you predict 60 seats in the House for Democrats?
What is it they are taking for granted as right in order to make the pollsters wrong?
Heh. :)
It seems odd that the voting numbers are so off in favor of Trump when just days ago the Republicans were warning their own to prepare for a whoopin’! With the number of Democrats requesting absentee ballots at a ratio of 5:1 compared to Republicans, not to mention how horrible the economy and unemployment is plus the almost 240,000 dead Americans killed by the President’s failure to seriously address the COVID-19 virus... it just does not add up that Republicans could have done so well.
How could the Republicans cheat anymore than they have blatantly attempted to do in this election? Fortunately, Trump is usually pretty good at telling us where to look for his con game through his projection. Trump has been screaming that the mail in ballots were easily corrupted, and Democrats have argued “that is NOT true”. The louder he claims mail in ballots are corruptible, the louder and more forceful are Democrats in responding that they are NOT easily corruptible!
But what if they are?
Do you remember the one case of voter corruption in North Carolina where an entire housing complex had been paid to request absentee ballots and then the people running the scam came and had the voters sign their ballots, saying they would properly fill it out for them, and then they took and mailed the ballots in for them. They were told they were being given the $50/100 money cards for participating in the pilot program that helped poor voters.
Do you remember how this scam was discovered? It was not because a housing complex in a deeply Democratic district all suddenly went Republican. No one from the complex thought to call in and report what was going on. No, the only way this was uncovered was when someone saw that the housing complex that typically had one or two absentee ballot requests during the past few elections suddenly had over 30 for the current election. It was when they investigated the increase in absentee requests that the truth about the ballot harvesting was discovered. That caused the election results to be tossed out and a new election was ordered.
Think about it... the only reason that this scam was discovered was because of the unexplainable increase in absentee ballot requests from one complex. Had someone not noticed the increase of requests and thought to investigate it, NC would have had a different Republican in the House of Representatives and one less person in their prisons!
Cut to 2020... the only thing that caused this scam to fail in the past is no longer an issue — increased requests for absentee ballots in large numbers has become the norm during this election. Which means the likelihood of the scam being successful during this election is much greater!
With some voting precincts being decided by just hundreds of votes one way or the other, this harvesting scam could easily change the results and allow Republicans to steal elections right under our noses.
I trust Donald Trump to tell us the truth when he projects via his accusations against Democrats. In places like SC where Lindsey Graham was re-elected by such a huge margin, we should look to see if any poor areas with majority Black populations had large numbers of voters supporting him.
[47] Kick
Ask yourself this: Why did you predict 60 seats in the House for Democrats?
Because I was very happily optimistic. Four years of bad, worse and worse news really got to me and affected friends of mine. The day before the election I was daydreaming of how wonderful it would be if... Stupid of course, childish even. But there hasn't been much to smile about in the last four years. I certainly didn't want to dwell on the worse case scenario. Time enough to deal with that if it happened.
Well said, Mopshell!
I just took a different route. Heh.
Russ,
Think about it... the only reason that this scam was discovered was because of the unexplainable increase in absentee ballot requests from one complex. Had someone not noticed the increase of requests and thought to investigate it, NC would have had a different Republican in the House of Representatives and one less person in their prisons!
But, the irregularity WAS noticed because people are trained to notice. Your system works. Well!
I, for one, am duly impressed everytime I hear an election official speak. You should all be very proud of how this election is being handled.
The Ramones - I Wanna Be Sedated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm51ihfi1p4
20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated
Just get me to the airport
And put me in a plane
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go insane
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my brain
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!
20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated
Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me on a plane
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go insane
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my brain
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!
20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated
Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me to the show
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go loco
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my toes
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!
20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to go
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated
Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me to the show
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go loco
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my toes
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
cross-posted FPC:
trump is up 2.6% in PA with 9% still left to count.
biden is up 2.4% in AZ with 11% left to count.
biden is up 0.6% in NV with 13% left to count.
trump is up 0.4% in GA with 2% left to count.
i know some folks are calling it already, but my sense is it's still too soon for anybody to be counting chickens.
@liz,
i think russ's point was that there may well have been massive cheating that we still haven't heard about.
JL
Mopshell
49
Because I was very happily optimistic. Four years of bad, worse and worse news really got to me and affected friends of mine. The day before the election I was daydreaming of how wonderful it would be if... Stupid of course, childish even.
Not stupid at all. I loved your list, and we'd definitely all be better off if we had the optimism and outlook of children.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VO2_KG6g-Q
But there hasn't been much to smile about in the last four years. I certainly didn't want to dwell on the worse case scenario. Time enough to deal with that if it happened.
Rule of analysis: Wish in one hand and shit in the other... see which one gets full first. ;) <--- wink
After they finish counting that shit-ton of ballots in Fulton and DeKalb and other counties in areas where "Black Americans" came out in droves and gave Donald Trump the proverbial giant finger, I think Joe Biden is going to win Georgia... leaving Donald Trump zero paths to the presidency.
I'm having weed brownies to celebrate... with a pie chaser! :)
nypoet22 [52]
Where did you get those numbers? I've been watching CNN's electoral map, which has similar, but not exactly the same numbers, mostly just more ballots outstanding. They've got 11% left in PA, 14% left in AZ, 14% left in NV, and 4% left in GA. I'd love to know if you have a more accurate and up-to-date source though.
Joshua,
Russ's point was clear enough.
I guess we'll see. :)
Wow, Michigan didn't end up being close at all. Biden won by almost 150k votes. He was only leading by about 10k with over 90% counted, and then there was a huge flood for him at the very end with Wayne county. That could be a signal for what's to come in Pennsylvania. Biden basically gained around 2.6% percent against Trump in the last 9% or so of the vote in Michigan. Coincidentally, Biden currently trails by about 2.6% in Pennsylvania with around 9% or so of the vote remaining. If Pennsylvania experiences a comparable late surge, Biden will catch up.
nypoet22
52
trump is up 2.6% in PA with 9% still left to count.
That ~9% is ~460,000 ballots with a huge chunk of them coming from Philadelphia.
biden is up 2.4% in AZ with 11% left to count.
Arizona ballots are harder to judge because they're from all over the state. I still think Joe takes it.
biden is up 0.6% in NV with 13% left to count.
The bulk of the remaining ballots are from Clark county and will lean heavily Democratic. Nevada is Biden country.
trump is up 0.4% in GA with 2% left to count.
About 50,000 ballots left to count which doesn't include provisionals and overseas/military. I guess Donald thinks Biden could win Georgia too because he's now suing in multiple select counties in Georgia to have predominantly the ballots of "Black Americans" thrown out; he has done so much for them, you know. *shakes head*
i know some folks are calling it already, but my sense is it's still too soon for anybody to be counting chickens.
Who's counting chickens? I'm counting pies... in Pennsylvania... Pittsburgh and Philly cheese steak pies. :)
Kick [58]
If you're counting pies, might I suggest you do so in Michigan? I can say from experience that they've got some damn good pies, especially if you get them from the Amish living there.
Bleyd
59
If you're counting pies, might I suggest you do so in Michigan?
I'm finished counting pies in Michigan. :)
I can say from experience that they've got some damn good pies, especially if you get them from the Amish living there.
They got any Amish pies in Pennsylvania? ;)
[48] ListenWhenYouHear
I hear you and followed your reasoning but I think this is only half the story or, rather, half the con.
Trump has been screaming that the mail in ballots were easily corrupted
Yes he did.
Do you remember the one case of voter corruption in North Carolina
Yes I do but Trump wasn't in the business of harvesting ballots. That little scam is very small scale, practised in an area comprising a few streets. He couldn't hope to bribe and recruit enough people in enough places to make a difference to the results in several states. So he wasn't going to do that when there are much better alternatives that have been used effectively by republicans in the past.
Besides, he and the GOP were trying very hard to stop the mass use of main-in ballots so this wasn't projection so much as misdirection. They told people that mail-in was unfair, unreliable, even claimed it was illegal. Then, when their fear and menace tactics failed to work, Trump installed DeJoy in USPS to subvert the postal service from within.
DeJoy went to extreme lengths to sabotage mail-in ballots. He stripped out automatic sorting machines and ordered them damaged beyond repair, changed pickup and delivery rosters to unfamiliar routes, shortened hours, and threatened dismissal if anyone didn't comply.
In addition he lied to a congressional hearing and a court judge about what he was doing, and falsely claimed he'd ensure the timely delivery of ballots while continuing his aggressive campaign to undermine USPS.
All of this demonstrated that Trump wanted to prevent mass mail-in voting, especially when he said this: "If you can shop in-person, you can vote in-person." That's what he really wanted people to do: vote in-person as they usually did when there wasn't a pandemic. His fear was that mail-in voting would surpass in-person voting, hence the USPS dirty tricks campaign to stop mail-in at all costs.
So why did he want people to vote in-person? Because then they would be using voting machines. For years experts have warned the American people of how easy it is to rig voting machines and tabulators. Want to be sure to win a close race? They can make sure you win by 23,000-27.000 in each of three states, no problem. Nice and easy.
And since there are never any investigations, the evidence will always remain undiscovered so the cheaters can cheat with impunity. If anyone does get too close, like a court case did to Georgia in 2017, the server and backup computers can always be wiped clean.
https://apnews.com/article/877ee1015f1c43f1965f63538b035d3f
Kick [60]
Pennsylvania has even more! I spent a summer living right in the middle of the state for a job, about 30 minutes from State College, where Penn State is located. Lots of Amish and Mennonites, and both made excellent baked goods, including pies.
[54] Kick
After they finish counting that shit-ton of ballots in Fulton and DeKalb and other counties in areas where "Black Americans" came out in droves and gave Donald Trump the proverbial giant finger, I think Joe Biden is going to win Georgia... leaving Donald Trump zero paths to the presidency.
I think so too and I'm sure you're right about Pennsylvania as well. This week is getting better by the day!
I'm having weed brownies to celebrate... with a pie chaser! :)
Bloody good idea! Speaking of pies, there a French chef on the other side of town who bakes the most delicious garlic chicken pies in a rich cream sauce... I'm addicted.
PS: I've finally learned how to wink! ;)
[50] Elizabeth
I just took a different route. Heh.
We all have to take our own route - hey, that's what being an individual is all about! :)
Georgia
Biden is only 18,590 votes behind with an estimated 48,000 left to count. He can do this! Joe is going to win Georgia![insert happy teary emoji]
[55] Bleyd
The numbers nypoet is using look the same as those I'm seeing in WashPo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/
Mopshell
65
Biden is only 18,590 votes behind with an estimated 48,000 left to count. He can do this! Joe is going to win Georgia![insert happy teary emoji]
Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)
John M, Liz M, and pretty much Everybody
"Why are the political pollsters always so wrong???"
One reason, and that is ignorance of human nature.
I've written about this before, but one more time: When a polltaker calls a Dem/Lib and asks, "Whom (he'd likely ask 'who') you gonna vote for, he or she jumps up, waves his/her arms an shouts at the top of his/her voice, "Biden!!!!" (or whoever the Dem/Lib candidate happens to be.)
But when the pollster asks the same question of a Rep/Con, he/she says (calmly), "none of your phuqueing bus . . ." er, I mean "undecided".
But when the Rep/Con gets to the voting booth, he/she pulls the handle for Trump (or whatever Rep).
Simple as that!!
EM #20 Even if Biden is some sort of Svengali able to sway rabid Trumpistas to his will. A skill we have seen little evidence of so far, he will be totally stymied by Mitch & Company. If he had such magical powers of persuasion the time to use them was BEFORE November 3rd, not after. In all democracies governance is possible by the several sides each trading with each other in the legislative arena to obtain as much of their agenda as possible. This horse trading process is confounded when one part has no other objective than to simply deny all progress for their opponent. The Repugs have NO AGENDA other than to deny the Dems any of theirs. Stalin believed he could make a deal with Hitler because he believed Hitler was a greedy bastard as he was ,and thus could be placated with Poland or other territoriality. He was flummoxed to learn that all Hitler wanted was the extinction of Russia. So too with Mitch all he wants is to stop the Dems, he is immune to public pressure (the election was yesterday), he doesn't care about passing any legislation. He is perfectly OK with the entire government coming to a complete halt. We are in for some very dark times. And president Biden can do nothing about it.
i could really go for some pie right now.
EN #20 See Ruth Marcus in the Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/if-biden-wins-hell-inherit-a-mission-impossible/2020/11/04/48b1796a-1eda-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html for a full explanation of just how Mitch can stop the administrative function of the government through the new Supreme Court. This is grim, very, very grim.
We all sense the trends, Biden will be president.
As for Trumpism, history, a subject I'm more than familiar with suggests that Trumpism will shrink away with its defeat.
Trump holds the reigns for that, and my trick knee tells me he will bewail until it's a done deal, then go back to what he does best...Grifting.
Hang on, hold tight, put away the pearls...Clutch them not.
LL&P
[67] Kick
Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)
Yeah I saw that and I thought Hmmm... that would mean 2 less republican senators being seated in the 117th Congress January 3.
I know it's a stretch but if Cal Cunningham could somehow get over the line and we won one of two Georgia runoffs, Dems would claim majority in the Senate come January 20.
Meanwhile in Georgia the margin is down to 14,100!
[72] James T Canuck
I don't think Trump will ever go back to his previous life. I think he's going to find himself indicted, tried, convicted and jailed, along with several other GOP.
Mopshell [73]
If we see a runoff between Perdue and Ossoff, it'll be very interesting to see how things change with Trump no longer on the ballot.
Mop...
That's my default reality. Sure, my happy place has Trump and his gang forfeit the remainder of their lives to punishment, or worse.
LL&P
Nevada
With ~149,000 outstanding ballots primarily from Clark County... Las Vegas. Biden has likely got Nevada.
__________
Georgia
Perdue dropped below 50% and not likely to regain the lead because the majority of the ballots are mail-in.
Trump leads Biden by 13,534 with ~50,000 ballots remaining. Savannah, Georgia -- Chatham County -- is where the bulk of the outstanding ballots are, ~17K. Trump could still win Georgia, and Biden needs about ~63% of the remaining outstanding ballots to go his way.
There are also provisional ballots, overseas ballots, and military that can be received until tomorrow so Georgia might be decided by a 3-digit or 4-digit outcome.
__________
Pennsylvania
With ~550,000 outstanding ballots remaining to be counted, Biden is closing in and has cut Trump's lead to a measly 114,011. Biden has been getting about 75% of these votes because mail-ins.
So it looks like Pennsylvania will put Biden over the top... later today.
:)
Pennsylvania
Trump's lead down to 111,369.
Nice update Kick, appreciate it. Do you have similar numbers for Arizona? The last couple ballot batches have actually reduced Biden's lead from around 93k to under 69k, so I'm a bit concerned.
[67] Kick wrote:
"Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)"
[73] Mopshell wrote:
"Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)
Yeah I saw that and I thought Hmmm... that would mean 2 less republican senators being seated in the 117th Congress January 3.
I know it's a stretch but if Cal Cunningham could somehow get over the line and we won one of two Georgia runoffs, Dems would claim majority in the Senate come January 20."
That's got to remain our hope. If Democrats could pick up both Georgia Senate seats in a run off, that would leave a 50/50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tie breaking vote. Do away with the filibuster, and Democrats could pass their agenda and pad the vote count by making Washington D.C. and/or Puerto Rico a state.
Otherwise Democrats will have to wait 2 years and half way thru Biden's term to try to turn the Senate blue again in 2022.
Bleyd [59] -
And cherries. Don't forget a cherry pie with Traverse City cherries! Cherry capital of the universe, according to them...
Heh.
-CW
Kick [60] -
I would recommend a Lancaster County shoo-fly pie. Delicious!
:-)
-CW
Stop for one moment.
Bask in the irony of Trump selling his followers on the invalidity of mail-in votes.
It's refreshingly peaceful.
LL&P
Arizona
Biden is ahead by 68,129 votes with about 450,000 remaining to be counted... majority from Maricopa.
Maricopa County, Phoenix area, stated they will release another update after 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
As for Trumpism, history, a subject I'm more than familiar with suggests that Trumpism will shrink away with its defeat.
Trumpism will evolve in to something else much like the tea party before it evolved into Trumpism. It's the rural/urban divide and is not going to go away unless it's addressed. I see calls for getting rid of the electoral college but if the needs and problems of the rural is not addressed, would that just be one tyranny for another? And with the difficulty of getting rid of the electoral college, needing a constitutional amendment, the rural states will not go along unless their needs are not only addressed but strong plans for them to be met. Yes, the republicans do little for the rural but they, or at least the current iteration of Trumpism/tea party, at least gives them lip service which is more than anyone else...
BashiBazouk [85]
If the electoral college is to remain, it at the very least needs to be reformed. Personally, I think an interesting option might be to change the ways electors are apportioned to 1 per representative plus only 1 for both senators instead of 1 for each senator. This would still give the smaller states a voice, but keep it from being quite so outsized. Instead of Wyoming getting 1 votes per 188k people, they'd get 1 vote per 282k. That's still a lot better than California's 1 vote per 677k, but I do agree that the less populous states need to have enough of a voice that they aren't completely ignored, so some weighting is appropriate. That said, such a rebalancing would help prevent elections like 2016 where a candidate wins the popular vote by a large margin, but still loses the election.
It's all tinkering with an old and obsolete 'self-sealing stem-bolt'...
I chuckled the other day when someone on FOX referred to the EC as protection against "the will of the majority"...
Priceless sophistry uttered in a demockracy.
no no no...A federal election should be just that...Every four years the federal govt hijack your local school for a day, people sweep through and vote, they can do that because the law says they get two paid hours to do so.
It's simple enough, we here in Canada call it democracy.
LL&P
In case it slipped anyone's attention...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/chris-wallace-shoots-down-trump-and-fox-news-stars-election-fraud-lies?ref=home&utm_source=web_push
The rubber meets the road here for Trumpeteers.
LL&P
Won't it be fun if Fox is the first major media (not news) organization to call Biden the winner?
Chis Wallace said he checked with their decision desk and they're standing by their Arizona call. All it would take now is Nevada and they'd be all set.
That would really trigger the orange snowflake!
Pennsylvania
Trump's lead is down to 97,900 with ~300,000 ballots left to count. :)
Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is now below 100k, only 97,900.
Bleyd
Jinx! :)
And this is fucking priceless, another hard and fast scam before the train leaves the station...
Blatant corruption, flabbergasting in the extreme.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-maga-bannon-linked-clowns-soliciting-cash-off-stop-the-steal-election-theft-panic?ref=scroll
Jebus
LL&P
[89]
Agreed
Augured...
LL&P
James T Canuck -
OK, I gotta ask. What's a self-sealing stem bolt?
Inquiring minds want to know.
-CW
"The envy of the world"...
That launched a paroxysm of laughter from me.
But, I like the message.
LL&P
CW[95]
Obviously it's a variety of stem bolt that is capable of sealing itself.
CW...Seriously?
https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Self-sealing_stem_bolt
If you're out of smoke, just ask...
LL&P
Oh, OK. Never watched much DS9. Didn't really start watching again until Voyager...
But thanks for clearing that up!
:-)
-CW
My point was, why tinker with a system that's flawed. Easier to replace it than fix its useless parts that no one can explain.
CW
LL&P
CW [99]
If you're a Star Trek fan, you really should watch DS9. If you can find the time, I highly recommend you make the effort to watch it. It's on streaming services.
Bleyd -
I did watch some of it when it was originally on. I liked Quark, one of the best characters (and alien races) they ever came up with. But I found a lot of the overall storylines kind of dark and depressing.
I still can't watch TNG. I can't stand Picard, although the other characters aren't as bad, I suppose.
I know a lot of people hated it, but I actually really liked Voyager. I loved the captain, very much in the Kirkian mold of what a starship captain should be like, and I loved all the supporting cast (except Neelix). Kes was OK, although she represented an impossible race (they can only get pregnant once in their lives, and they only have one baby. So how many generations until the race disappears? Or -- how did this race survive even the second generation? Two parents produce one baby once in their lives -- population halves... grrr...). I loved 7 of 9, too. The Borg with a heart of gold, what's not to love?
I watched most of Enterprise, but their storyline kind of got lost after 9/11 happened. The final six months of the show was awesome, however, especially the two-part "Mirror/Mirror" and "The Tholian Web" continuing story (with the best ST opening credits sequence of all time -- the Enterprise strafing cities from above in the Mirror/Mirror universe).
Since then, I've fallen behind. Haven't even seen like the last 2 movies or so...
The original show's still my favorite. Can't beat Kirk and Spock and McCoy...
-CW
Oh, forgot to mention:
Back in the 1990s, a friend of mine signed all his emails (remember .sig files?) with: "The Ferengi have taken over the ship!"
Heh.
-CW
PA results continue to trickle in, and the news just keeps getting better for Biden. Trump's lead has shrunk to a little over 90K. It used to be like 300K.
-CW
Georgia
Trump's lead is down to 9,525.
Peach pie. :)
Can we please just STOP THE COUNT!
:-)
We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania! Heh. :)
Ha!
You know, Trump could be a Ferengi. Perhaps even the Grand Nagus himself. He's corrupt, greedy, misogynistic. Fleeces his followers. It all fits.
And, he wants to stop the count and lose the election!
And, he wants to stop the count and lose the election!
John M -
And if he thought he could get away with it, he'd probably LOVE to force his brides to be naked for the wedding ceremony!
Heh.
-CW
Gap just jumped downward to only 79K in PA...
OK, gotta go write today's thing...
-CW
Arizona
Biden holds onto his lead at 65,179. :)
DS9 is unfairly maligned. It's one of the best trek series in terms of writing and acting, but its slower plot development turned off fans accustomed to instant gratification.
Pennsylvania
Trump's lead is down to 75,427 with about ~320,000 mail-in ballots remaining to be counted, but PA election official has now reported that it may take longer than expected to count the remaining hundreds of thousands of votes. :)
Check out GA too, less than 4K
-CW
nypoet22 [115]
DS9 also gets maligned for not being "Star Trek enough", in large part because they were willing to occasionally do things that conflicted with Roddenberry's utopian ideal. For one thing, they told a war story. They also dealt with corruption within Star Fleet, something that other series dismissed as nigh impossible because humans had evolved past it. They allowed the characters to develop shades of gray that other series wouldn't. Honestly, that particular series is probably more relevant now than it ever has been.
>65K in PA.
-CW
Georgia
Trump's lead is down to 3,635.
Also, Benedict Donald embarrassed himself and America in front of the whole world on live television. #Pathetic
Rick Santorum is tying himself in knots on CNN trying to tow the party line while still denouncing the crap Trump just said. It's almost painful to watch.
I thought he was going to lose Georgia while he was at the podium!
It has to be just killing Fat Donny that the map is getting all of the attention on TV 24/7 instead of him and his pointless, idiotic trolling.
I'm so looking forward to him not intruding into our daily lives.
Really hope Georgia or Pennsylvania ends up flipping, because I'm getting concerned about Biden's shrinking lead in Arizona. Down to only 61k now.
New column up. It's more coherent than this one, because I wasn't fighting a raging hangover...
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/11/05/a-long-term-look-at-the-redblue-trends-on-the-map/
Heh.
-CW
GA lead below 3,500.
-CW
You know what would be kinda funny? If the courts decided respond to Trump's lawsuits by ending all vote counting right now, and declared Biden the winner since he currently leads in states totaling 270 EV.
Well hopefully I’m not speaking too soon but, it looks like America has a small step back from the precipice. Good job, us!
As far as whether Biden can accomplish anything with a Republican senate, I’d say yes. Certainly not as much as any of us might wish... but if he can flip a few moderate Republican votes, it’ll be enough. I could see a few republicans voting for a democratic pandemic relief bill.
If not that, then maybe Biden can use some of that supreme executive authority no one ever talks about. You know, as outlined in Article II of the Constitution. Apparently he can do anything he wants as president ????
Ugh that comment wasn’t supposed to have question marks at the end. How annoying. Is there no way to edit?