A Long-Term Look At The Red/Blue Trends On The Map
As we all sit around refreshing our browsers to see if there are any further ballot count updates in Pennsylvania and Georgia today, I thought it was worth taking a longer view of that map we've all been staring at. I wrote about this a month ago, but I have some further thoughts I'd like to share about the long-term trends in states moving along the red/purple/blue spectrum.
What really spurred me to write about it again so soon was the dawning realization that even though it now seems that Joe Biden has rebuilt the vaunted "big blue wall," I think it would be far too optimistic to think that this is any sort of lasting trend which will put the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania firmly back in the Democrats' column for a long time to come. But more on that in a moment.
The problem with even attempting to discern long-term trends -- states slowly moving Republican or Democratic, as the partisan pendulum swings -- is that Donald Trump is such an aberration. He is, to put it mildly, unique. He's not a Republican Party stalwart, he is instead a personality-cult leader. Which begs the question: what will happen when he is not on the ballot anymore? What will the voting trends post-Trump look like, on both sides?
Of course, he could always run again in 2024 if Biden secures the victory this time. I certainly wouldn't put it past him, at this point. Or one of his kids could run. So there may still be Trumps on GOP ballots for a while to come. But just for the sake of argument, let's assume that doesn't happen.
We've now had two presidential elections with Trump on the ballot. If both are proven to be aberrant and counter to the actual trends, then we likely won't even be able to see it until the 2028 election. No matter what happens in 2024, if the trendlines from 2020 and 2016 are aberrant and should be set aside, then we'll need more data than just one election to spot any real long-term trends. But eight years is a long time to wait for such a thing to become certain.
What will the Republican base be like without Trump? Will those millions of new Trump voters who came out of the woodwork to vote for him simply melt back away into the ranks of non-voters? Or will they stay and put their own stamp on the party after Trump isn't there anymore? And how enthusiastically will they support the 2024 nominee? Republicans are in for a particularly brutal primary season next time around, as there may be as many GOP presidential candidates in four years as the Democrats had this time around (which was more than two dozen, in case anyone's forgotten).
What will the Democratic base be like without Trump? Will those millions of voters who crossed over from the Republican side in their outright disgust at Trump's behavior turn back to the GOP again once Trump is gone? Or will they reconsider things and stay in the Democratic fold? What about young voters who got enthusiastic about defeating Donald Trump? That's the flip side to the personality-cult thing -- some Biden voters turned out just to be rid of Trump. What will they do when Trump's not on the ballot? Revert to being non-voters again? Or will they stick around? Will they really enthusiastically support Biden or will Democratic ranks fight among themselves over how progressive the party should really be, and by doing so drive these voters away?
There are, obviously, a whole lot of unanswered questions. And one data point does not a trend make. Which is why I say it may be until 2028 before we can accurately tell what is going on.
In eight years, of course, the demographics of many states will have changed. People move in, people move out, high school seniors graduate, and people die. The electorate is always in motion, in other words. These are really the longer-term trends that produce major shifts along the political scale, and these are the sorts of things I've been wondering about (while staring at that red/blue map). Broken down roughly by region, here's what I think:
West
This is perhaps the most exciting region for Democrats to consider. There has been a long-term trend in the West towards the blue. California -- as bizarre as it may now sound -- used to be a reliably Republican state. Who were the only presidents to come out of California? Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. But for the past 25 or 30 years, Democrats have absolutely dominated the state, a trend which shows absolutely no signs of reversing. Washington, Oregon, and Hawai'i are all also reliably blue and should stay that way for many years to come.
Moving into the Mountain West, Democrats have been steadily flipping states. First it was Colorado and New Mexico and Nevada (home state to Harry Reid). We seem to be on the brink of flipping Arizona this year. And this could be a real trend -- they are about to have two Democratic senators, meaning the seat of John McCain and Barry Goldwater will now be blue.
Montana is a fiercely independent state, electing Democratic governors and Republican senators (at times). It will likely be a real swing state for some time to come. There's always an influx of rich people buying land, which demographically changes the previous solid-red nature of the state, but it's a very slow process.
Three states are beyond Democratic hopes in the West, because I seriously doubt that Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming are ever going to vote for Democrats any time soon. Probably Alaska, as well.
Central
Most of the news over the past two or three decades in the Plains region has been bad for Democrats. We lost both Dakotas (remember Tom Daschle of South Dakota -- and how he lost his seat?), and Iowa seems to be trending redder and redder (where it used to be a purple swing state). Missouri is also lost to Democrats, when not so long ago they had a Democratic senator (Claire McCaskill). Minnesota and Illinois still seem pretty solidly blue, however.
Most of the other Plains states are solid red and aren't moving at all on the spectrum any time soon.
The big blue dream here, of course, is Texas. Every election, Democrats fervently hope that Texas will flip, and every election it just doesn't. But it is getting a whole lot closer.
Texas is one of those states with a very rapidly-changing population. Last time we had a Census, Texas gained a whopping four House seats. This time, they may gain at least another three. That is the fastest growth of any state in the entire country.
But with growth comes change. Many of the people moving to Texas come from very blue parts of the country. Now, some of them are moving to Texas to get away from the "dang libruls," but others are moving in just for good jobs and much cheaper housing prices. This is why Democrats even have a chance of winning in Texas -- because of all the new voters.
It hasn't happened yet, obviously, but just because Democrats keep wishing for it and then being disappointed, that doesn't mean it won't eventually happen. If it does, it will be the biggest earthquake in the presidential map imaginable, because without Texas it will be incredibly hard for Republicans to ever get to 270 Electoral College votes. Not impossible, but much harder.
Northeast
I'm going to save the Rust Belt for the end, which is why I'm skipping over it here. The Northeast was a big success story for Democrats, but they are now victims of this success. In other words, there just aren't any more states left to flip.
New England is as deep blue as can be imagined, at least on the presidential level. New Hampshire occasionally elects Republicans, and Massachusetts seems to have a real fondness for GOP governors (for some reason), but from New York and New Jersey northward, the landscape is blue as far as the eye can see.
One caveat to that is necessary. Maine, of course, is cantankerously independent, where third parties and Independents actually get elected, but other than its backwoods second congressional district, it's pretty reliably blue in presidential races.
South
Democrats and Republicans have swapped Virginia and West Virginia over the past decade or so. West Virginia used to be reliably Democratic, mostly on the strength of the Union vote, but Unions have been fading in importance while the blue-collar vote has been generally trending redder for decades. So the state is now deep red, and shows no signs of going back any time soon.
Virginia is a real success story for Democrats, however. They've taken over the state government and elected Democrats to all the statewide offices. Virginia can't even be seen as a swing state any more -- look how early it was called on Tuesday night, for proof. Once again, this was the result of a massive population boost in the D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia -- a trend which still continues. The rural population is getting out-voted by the suburbanites, and that has made all the difference. And will continue to do so for a while, at least.
Kentucky and Tennessee used to be up for grabs, but this hasn't been the case for decades (at least in presidential races). Al Gore came from Tennessee, after all, but he didn't even win his own state in 2000.
Florida is almost guaranteed to be a real swing state for quite some time to come. It's always a close race in Florida, and they also have a constant influx of people moving in from other states (to retire, mostly). Right now, Republicans seem to have a slight advantage, but we'll have to see what happens when Trump's not on the ballot.
The Deep South has what can only be called generational memory. After the Civil War, the South was solidly Democratic for a very long time (remember what party Abe Lincoln came from...). The term "Yellow Dog" was coined there (or, more colloquially, "Yaller Dog Democrat"), for people who "would vote for a yellow dog over any Republican." But then came the Civil Rights era. L.B.J. is reported to have said, when signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964: "We've lost the South [for Democrats] for a generation." Turned out he was right, but it lasted for over two generations. The South slowly moved into the Republican column and stayed there for decades. Only recently have cracks begun to show (like Virginia).
This is still mostly true, however two states seem to be struggling to follow the path of Virginia: North Carolina and Georgia. Both have seen boom times in several industries, and a whole lot of people moving in from other states. North Carolina seems to be where Florida is right now -- perfectly balanced on the knife edge -- but Georgia could be moving even faster towards the blue. Whether it goes for Biden or for Trump in the end this time around, it still will be the closest result in quite some time. And the trendline is towards the blue, so by 2024 it could easily be a pickup state for Democrats.
Rust Belt
Here's where the bad news for Democrats comes into play. Joe Biden may have rebuilt the blue wall this time around -- he's already won Wisconsin and Michigan back, and we're all breathlessly waiting to see if he flips Pennsylvania back as well. That would be an extraordinary accomplishment, after Donald Trump shocked the world by picking up all three last time around.
But this may just be because Trump is on the ballot. The true trend could be that all three of theses states eventually wind up in the Republican column. Or at least Michigan and Wisconsin.
I say this mostly because of what has happened in Ohio. It wasn't that long ago that Ohio was the swingiest of swing states, and neither side could count on it. But over the past decade or two, it has seemed to trend more and more red as time goes by. This may have nothing to do with Donald Trump. We won't be able to tell until 2024 at the earliest, but Ohio seems like it is slipping from the purple into the red, no matter how hard Democrats fight there.
If Michigan and Wisconsin follow this route, then the overall map of which states the parties can consider safe will change. Democrats will have to start thinking how to strategically put together 270 Electoral College votes without Michigan's 16 and Wisconsin's 10. If Pennsylvania's 20 is added to that, this represents a major loss (of 46 Electoral College votes -- 8 more than Texas has).
This won't make the map impossible for Democrats, just harder. But if the trends continue elsewhere, they'll also be picking up votes across the country. If Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina turn blue, that'll add 42 votes to their total.
I was as happy as everyone else to see Wisconsin and Michigan turn blue again this time around, and I await the news from Pennsylvania. But while Joe Biden seems to have reconstructed the vaunted big blue wall this time around, it would be foolhardy to just assume that things are back to normal and Democrats don't need to worry about them in the next few presidential elections. Thankfully, there are other paths elsewhere for them to explore in the meantime.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
We won't be able to tell until 2024 at the earliest, but Ohio seems like it is slipping from the purple into the red, no matter how hard Democrats fight there.
Could it be that Democrats are just not fighting the right fight in Ohio or greater Rust Belt or elsewhere in the country?
When will most voters discard the misguided theory that Republicans are the best stewards of the economy? When Democrats finally, at long last, expose the Republican cult of economic failure for what it is.
LizM -
Yeah, Sherrod Brown might disagree with my analysis. Should've mentioned him...
:-)
-CW
Trump's lead in Pennsylvania down to 60,751.
We are . . . . . Penn State!
The orange one doesn't really have a lead. The race is over. All the votes were cast by election day. We just haven't seen the photo finish picture yet.
It ain't over 'til it's over, but it's over.
Around 53K in PA...
-CW
I think that sound you hear is the fat lady warming up in the opera's wings.
Hopefully...
:-)
-CW
MELTDOWN!
Where are Mitch McConnell?
I wonder if you should be looking at the late 2020's electoral landscape from the perspective of the abolition or neutralizing of the Electoral College via the State Compact project. Should either happen, it would seem that everything about presidential politics would undergo a sea change that makes your entire essay beside the point.
Now, yes, I know. It's not that likely that such a major reform will take place in the next four or eight years. But the Electoral College has been taking it in the chin from liberal commentators and politicians for quite a while now, for the obvious reason that it's clearly neutralizing or minimizing the Democrats' growing majority across the population. Assuming Biden even wins this week, it's not very hard to see how Trump could have won, despite *another* 3-4 million deficit in the national popular vote.
The Republicans have all but renounced the idea of democracy and majority rule, via their ever more intensive reliance on voter suppression, an anti-democratic Senate, Electoral College, and the consequent domination of the federal courts. If and when the Democratic Party, representing about 60% of the nation, decides this is intolerable, sooner or later a counter-movement will develop to preserve American democracy on a national level. At that point, analyses like yours today, which presume that a 5000-vote majority of Texas' 17 million voters will always deliver 38 (or more) electoral votes to one or the other candidate, will have to be rethought from the ground up.
And yes, again, I know this may not happen. But you're the one who said we have to look to 2028 to even think about the changing political landscape after Trump. Can we be sure the landscape won't have undergone the continental tectonic crash of an actual national popular vote to elect the president by then?
On the DS9 question...
I loved the war theme, and the gritty nature. I loved a whole race entirely devoted to greed. In the original ST utopia, "we've evolved beyond money" was all they ever had to say about the entire economy of the future. But there's always winners and losers, and ST has had more ragged edges ever since DS9, which I do appreciate.
I like Heinlein stories for this reason alone. A future society should be sometimes seen through the people at the fringes. The radicals and the unsatisfied. The original ST was groundbreaking for being diverse and inclusive -- a RUSSIAN on the bridge! a BLACK woman! Sulu! -- all of which were heady things to even consider in the 1960s. First black/white kiss on television ever was on ST. But with all that "let's dream of a better future" they got a little too dreamy. Which is why DS9 was indeed interesting.
What I really want to check out is the new animated one, um "Below Decks"? That seems ripe for some decent humor!
But my main problem with DS9 was that either the plots moved so slowly or things got very very dark for the whole episode. Also, I didn't really like the two main characters (the guy running the place and Odo, although Odo was a little better).
But maybe I should give it another chance. I've probably only seen about half of them, I admit...
-CW
Arizona
Maricopa hasn't reported any votes all day while the results from rural counties in Arizona have been trickling in. Maricopa (Phoenix area) is supposed to drop a load of results soon, and that should run Biden's number back up there. The Biden campaign warned about this in their briefing today so... let's see it rise, Phoenix. :)
John M from Ct -
Good point. The NPV end-run around the problem of an amendment just got another state to sign up (CO? I'd have to check). I think they're at 196 EV right now, but the big problem is that so far it's been a Democratic-state-only thing. So if enough blue states sign on, it will mean either: (1) the same result as would have happened without the NPV compact, or (2) a massive landslide for the Republican, should he or she win the popular vote.
Not until a few red -- or at least purple -- states sign up will it even be an issue, in other words. And even then, if the compact is ever actually put to the test, I do wonder if every state would follow it...
But you're right, if we're looking 8 yrs ahead, it certainly is worth discussing. But like you said, if it happens, then my whole article is largely moot. And hey, I had to write about SOMEthing today other than just "have the PA numbers moved again yet?!?"
:-)
-CW
Upon reflection, there were a (very) few instances of people scratching for a living. Harcourt Fenton Mudd, in particular.
:-)
-CW
That should have had "in the original series"...
-CW
~50K in PA, ~2.5K in GA... and falling...
-CW
Kick [12]
Seems like votes have been trickling in from Maricopa, and they've been going more for Trump.
Chris,
Do you mean that Sherrod Brown is the Democrat who is best making the economic case and exposing the Republican cult of economic failure?
I shall pay him more attention!
And, in Arizona, Trump got the bulk of the Native American vote, if I heard correctly.
One of Biden's top five calls should be to the Native American leaders there ... to set up a meeting!
Arizona is not trending like PA or GA; but, no matter, for now ... but after this election something should be done about that, post haste.
LizM [18],
Brown wins statewide in OH and he definitely isn't Republican Lite.
Arizona
Trump holding his own in Arizona... Maricopa drop of ballot counts leaves Biden with shrinking lead of 46,257... still a lead.
C'mon Pennsylvania. :)
EM [20]
Interestingly, Biden is currently leading Maricopa by 3.4% while Kelly is leading by 5.0% in the senate race.
Just want to mention that I've been extremely impressed, as usual, with CNN's election coverage - comprehensive, fair, and always informative - it keeps getting better and better.
I didn't watch or listen to anything else so I have nothing to compare their coverage with but, still ...
And, to be clear, CNN's coverage was in no way, shape or form responsible for my early and, mercifully, short-lived forray into the Red Mirage. That was all on me. Ahem.
Well, I do declare, GEORGIA!
I agree that CNN's coverage has been quite good. They're pretty clearly supporting Biden's election, but they are at least attempting to be as objective in their reporting as possible.
Bleyd,
Will Kelly win his senate seat? Not following the senate at all, gave up on it very early on.
LizM [27]
Kelly is currently leading by 103k votes with 51.7% of the total, so very good chance he wins.
Bleyd,
I think you give CNN too little credit. They have gone well beyond 'attempting' to be objective.
LizM [18] -
Yes. He is. You nailed it.
If you haven't heard of him, you DEFINITELY need to check him out. I was kind of disappointed that he didn't run this time, personally.
Seriously, check him out. You'll be glad you did.
:-)
-CW
Kelly is currently leading by 103k votes with 51.7% of the total, so very good chance he wins.
Excellent! I'll let you keep an eye on for me. :)
Hey, Chris ... Yes, I do know him but will pay much closer attention now. Thanks.
LizM [32] -
He really is Mr. Economic Message for the Dems. More so than Bernie, even, because he's less flaky and more down-to-earth.
-CW
PS. Also, when I mailed my book to EVERY Democrat in Congress, he was the only one to endorse it (he was only in the House at the time), so maybe I'm biased. :-)
Has anyone else noticed that Erie County is currently blue?
Fat Donny: Before the plague came in, I had it made. I wasn’t coming to Erie. I have to be honest. There was no way I was coming.
Yes! Wolf Blitzer has been checking in regularly over the last few days. Heh.
LizM [29]
I overstated it. I should say that they're attempting to sound objective, but occasionally letting it out that they support Biden. The actual information being reported appears to be objective though.
Chris,
Have you kept in touch with him. I'd love for you to do an interview after the election, before inaguration perhaps!
He endorsed your book! Wow! I mean I am not in the least surprised by that ... very, very surprised that he was the only one.
He sounds like my new guy ... to go along with my old guy! And, by that, I mean treasury secretary Geithner. Heh.
I overstated it. I should say that they're attempting to sound objective, but occasionally letting it out that they support Biden.
Sorry, but I still beg to differ.
Down to 1,902 in Georgia.
GA down to 1900 Trump lead...
-CW
Down to 42,142 in PA now.
Chris,
I haven't finished reading today's post yet because I've just read this:
Of course, he could always run again in 2024 if Biden secures the victory this time.
What on earth are you on about? How's Trump going to run for the presidency from his prison cell? Or are you advocating that America abandon its Rule of Law and let all its biggest criminals go free?
Among his myriad of sins, Trump is a traitor. Why would you want the worst traitor in US history to escape justice?
PA down to 42K and falling...
-CW
Damn - Bleyd beats me to it once again!
:-)
-CW
LizM -
Little known fact: you can actually run for president from a prison cell. It's been done before. Check out "Lyndon LaRouche". At least one of his longshot presidential bids was from a jail cell, I'm almost positive...
-CW
Are you talkin' to me?
I'm pretty sure Trump ain't gonna end up in a prison cell.
Chris,
No matter what happens in 2024, if the trendlines from 2020 and 2016 are aberrant and should be set aside, then we'll need more data than just one election to spot any real long-term trends.
This subject is best left to medical experts in the field of psychology. There's plenty of them writing about this. Here's one who writes under the pseudonym of G2Geek:
Emotions are contagious, often so quickly that even if you're looking closely, you can't spot the exact moment in which it occurs, or the specific signals that did it.
Trump’s malignant narcissism makes him a blackhole of neediness and a fountain of cruelty and vindictive bile. Those emotions are as contagious as any other, and they have spread across the country like COVID.
Trump’s followers pick up the emotions from Trump, and then they spread those feelings to their families, friends, and coworkers.
Notice the recent proliferation of comments in these very pages such as "Steven Miller has such a punchable face!” That's Trump's emotional virus, that’s worked its way through the culture.
Now in comes Biden, with empathy and compassion his superpowers: the emotional opposite of Trump. Biden’s emotions will also spread across the country, and over time we'll see the angels of our better natures sprouting wings.
That will probably coincide with deployment of the COVID vaccines, that will be additional reinforcement.
So I'd say that by the end of next year, we will be well on our way.
Whoops... should've said "Mopshell [42] -"
My apologies...
:-)
-CW
No worries. :)
Georgia
Clayton County has ~5,700 outstanding ballots.
I think Georgia will then be down to any ballots received by mail in (tomorrow is the last day for them to arrive), provisional ballots, overseas ballots, and military ballots. Voters are also able to "cure" a faulty ballot in Georgia through tomorrow. :)
... cure the ballots ... I love that phrase!
I'm pretty sure Trump ain't gonna end up in a prison cell.
But, if he does and even if he doesn't, this one's for you, Mopshell ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ceiyHuW-JQ
Is it just me or is it getting hot in here?
GA down to 1800, but they're running out of ballots left to count. No matter who wins, this is almost guaranteed to go to a recount...
-CW
There are also thousands of provisional votes in Georgia that haven't been counted yet - the military overseas and so on ... so I'm going to predict, again, that Biden will win Georgia! :)
Like Kick said. And, CNN, too! :)
I hear that Georgia is down to around ~16,000.
The bulk of the votes are in Clayton County, and that is John Lewis country. :)
I declare!
Try that again:
"Well, I do declare!" ;)
I already said that so it wouldn't let me say it again. :(
See [25]
@cw,
yes, ds9 is the kind of show where patience will be rewarded. that's what i meant by people being frustrated by the lack of instant gratification. the plot lines run deep and traverse multiple episodes (if not multiple seasons), so sometimes you need to wait for the payoff.
the first season is a little pat and the last season is a little rushed, but pretty much everything in-between is solid. if you can make it that far, the season 6 episode, 'in the pale moonlight' is one of the best episodes i have seen of any show, in any genre, ever.
JL
What is ds9?
Hey Joshua ... did you watch Homeland?
LizM [64]
Star Trek Deep Space 9
... or 24?
Ah, I see, Bleyd ... I just watched the origianl TV series way back when. Did you watch Homeland? or 24?
Pennsylvania
36,572
Senator Casey is predicting a Biden margin of 100,000, give or take in PA when all is said and done. :)
Check that Casey prediction - I think he was actually saying that he thinks Biden will get another 100,000 votes in PA as the counts continue ...
OK, had to take a break to eat... where are we?
>37K in PA! Woo hoo!
GA same 1800.
We could be getting real close, folks. I just hope the PA people don't call it a night and go home before the lead flips, personally...
-CW
I wouldn't want them counting votes when they're dead tired, though. We can wait. :)
Pennsylvania
Philly area is sitting on ~60,000 outstanding ballots that will probably go 90/10 for Biden. Post them, Philly! :)
wow, less than half a percentage point and still 5% left to count. interesting! looking a lot like recount territory.
i mean, in covid times how would they even do a recount?
let them recount, doubtful it will change much
the same way they did the count?
Pennsylvania
26,319 :)
pardon, what am i saying half a percent, i meant a TENTH of a percent!
and in georgia even less than that
hot DAMN this is exciting!
Philly delivered and is still counting! :)
I told you to watch Georgia on election night, did I not? ;)
PA >27K
And falling...
:-)
-CW
Whoops that should be <27K. Gotta get that right...
-CW
Damn I gotta stop posting numbers and just refresh my browser -- you folks are quicker (and more accurate) than I am...
:-)
-CW
Arizona
Biden picked up ~500. :)
Trump won 306 EVs in 2016.
If Biden wins, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania he will reach 306 EVs.
And, Trumps head will explode. Heh.
Biden is off the charts!
Now, where have heard that before? :)
LizM [89]
His head always looks like it's about to explode, so I wouldn't be that surprised.
I was just trying to be funny. Should have thought of a better phrase. :(
The margin in Georgia is now down to a razor-thin 1775!
Elizabeth Miller
89
A landslide... according to Trump, but Trump had two faithless electors and wound up with 304 EVs.
This concludes our history lesson for the night. ;)
Come on Philly! There's still about ~50,000 in just Philadelphia.
SHeeeeeee-it.
The queen, ahem, of taking the wind out of someone's sails strikes again. ;)
Speaking of Queen, just bought tickets for the tribute band. :)
LizM [97]
Neat!
Actually, tribute band is an understatement. Queen: It's a Kind of Magic recreates Queen's 1986 World Tour concert!
Elizabeth Miller
96
The queen, ahem, of taking the wind out of someone's sails strikes again. ;)
I was trying to explain how Biden could get more than Trump... a thus have a biglier landslide! :)
That would really explode his head!
I'd buy tickets for that! ;)
It's scheduled for June 5, 2021 at Kitchener's Centre in the Square, where Glen Campbell taped his part of his 25th Anniversary show! It's a great venue, one of the best acoustics in North America.
https://centreinthesquare.com/event/queenits-a-kinda-magic/
[19] Elizabeth
And, in Arizona, Trump got the bulk of the Native American vote, if I heard correctly.
You can be forgiven for thinking so because in Arizona, all their congressional electorates are named after Indian tribes. So if you heard something like, "The majority of Cochise voters went for Trump" that is just a reference to the electorate of Cochise which largely comprises Caucasians, not Native Americans.
No Mopshell, I'm not talking about congressional electorates - I'm talking about Indian country.
Georgia
1805
~14,000 remaining ballots... Clayton County and Gwinnett: The 'burbs of Atlanta a.k.a. John Lewis country! :)
You may recall Michale talking about all that Trump did for Native Americans and questioning what Democrats had down.
He can be some truth in what Michale says sometimes, you know.
michale is definitely misunderstood and misunderestimated.
LizM -
Actually NEITHER party has done much of anything for NAs. For, like, 250 years, sadly...
-CW
they misunderestimated me.
~george w. bush
donald did a TON for native american casinos, by being such inept competition!
oh damn, comment got swallowed, wonder why.
Chris Weigant
109
Actually NEITHER party has done much of anything for NAs. For, like, 250 years, sadly...
Correct... and least of all Donald Trump:
https://tinyurl.com/zbwolkl
Has anyone heard anything about whether PA is going to keep counting through the night or just call it a day at some point and start again tomorrow morning? I mean, it's still pretty early out here, but it's getting late on East Coast time...
-CW
nypoet22 -
Fixed it. Don't know why the filter grabbed it...
-CW
nypoet22
111
oh damn, comment got swallowed, wonder why.
Were you maybe trying to discuss Trump's shitty treatment of Native Americans and typed the word c-a-s-i-n-o?
Kick -
That could very well be it. Lotta "casino" comment spam, so you're probably right. Maybe try "gaming establishment" instead? Heh.
-CW
Chris,
I can type it because I'm the uber-user here (none of my posts ever gets rejected). Others may not be able to, just to warn everyone...
-CW
Chris,
Actually NEITHER party has done much of anything for NAs. For, like, 250 years, sadly...
Correct! In spades. Not only have they not done much of anything on the critical issues, but they have done quite a lot AGAINST them. For, like, 500+ years, way beyond sadly.
But, did I hear wrong tonight when I though I heard that the Native American vote in Arizona went for Trump?
Me and Liz definitely know it's "c-a-s-i-n-o" because of
C-a-s-i-n-o Royale and that night she got about 25 of her comments eaten by the filter. *laughs*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwdhhZGhVZ8
Good times, right EM!? ;)
By they I mean white people and the white power structure present since the arrival of Columbus.
[45] Chris
Little known fact: you can actually run for president from a prison cell. It's been done before. Check out "Lyndon LaRouche". At least one of his longshot presidential bids was from a jail cell, I'm almost positive...
Now you come to mention it, I do remember that! Somehow I can't see Trump following the example of LaRouche. :)
Oh, man, Kick, that brings back a lot a bad memories of this place.
Mopshell,
Trump is more likely to end up in a psych ward.
Click the link. You'll feel better. :)
PA ~24.5K
-CW
oh, yeah ... :)
I think just adding a space or other character will do it: "Cas ino" or "casin-o" would probably be OK...
-CW
Yeah, Chris, Kick and I figured that out a while ago. Heh.
Pennsylvania
24,484 :)
Kick -
Ha! Beat you to it for once!
Heh.
-CW
But, I wouldn't want to take any chances so c-a-s-i-n-o just to be on the sane side. Ahem.
Speaking of,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdwg1rmK-aM&list=RDhdwg1rmK-aM&start_radio=1&t=30
Every eye in the c-a-s-i-n-o was on the woman at the roulette wheel.
She was 38, a little overweight;
in her purse lay her charm and appeal.
Oh-o-o, we blew those Nickels and Dimes
Oh-o-o, we blew those Nickels and Dimes
(there is a great story behind this Prism tune. Which I will relate Sunday night!)
Just noticed -- Biden's now up by over 4m in the national popular vote. That number will climb further, as CA continues to count...
-CW
So nobody's heard about PA's schedule tonight? Just curious...
-CW
Most votes received by any presidential candidate in the history of America. How very fitting ...
CW
132
You got me!
I would just like to take this opportunity to blame Daniel Craig and his nearly unclothed physique that I posted for EM. ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwdhhZGhVZ8
^^^^^ That one ^^^^^
What's on tap?
I think counting in PA will soon stop for the night.
Chris Weigant
135
So nobody's heard about PA's schedule tonight? Just curious...
I know they're still counting in Philly and have at least ~50,000.
I think they are going to count until midnight, no?
No fresh bodies available to continue, I've heard.
Or maybe that was for another state?
Georgia
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 10:35 p.m. today there are approximately 14,097 ballots still outstanding.
Clayton County: 4,355
Cobb County: 700
Floyd County: 444
Forsyth County: 1,545
Gwinnett County: 4,800
Laurens County: 1,797
Taylor County: 456
Are those all Democratic strongholds?
[105] Elizabeth
I'm talking about Indian country.
I Googled it and can't find any reference to a majority of Native Indians voting for Trump. Hopefully they'll mention it again with more detail.
EM
144
Clayton, Cobb, and Gwinnett are the 'burbs of Atlanta.
Laurens is named after Hamilton and Lafayette's friend, John Laurens who was an aide-de-camp of George Washington, but I digress, as I am wont to do. :)
[125] Elizabeth
Trump is more likely to end up in a psych ward.
Not according to any of the psychs whose work I've been reading, including all those who contributed to the book The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump, 27 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President. They explain that Trump is not crazy in the legal sense of the term.
Forsyth is an Atlanta 'burb too, EM.
Pennsylvania
22,576
Come on, Philly! Drop your counts!
Pennsylvania
Okay, here's the definitive word on PA:
There are ~175,000 mail-in/absentee ballots remaining to count in Pennsylvania, which includes more than 58,000 in Philadelphia.
Major counties like Philly are counting all night.
[144] Elizabeth
Trends in the Georgia counties you asked about.
Clayton County: blue
Cobb County: blue
Floyd County: red
Forsyth County: red
Gwinnett County: blue
Laurens County: red
Taylor County: red
Thank-you!
Good News
The ballots they're counting in Georgia and Pennsylvania are absentee and are trending Democratic regardless of County because Dotard Donald pissed all over voting by mail. Heh.
Arizona
Biden up again: 47,052
Georgia
1709
GA down to like 1700 or so...
PA down to 22.6K...
-CW
Damn...
OK, Kick, you won that one...
Heh
-CW
CW
Heh. And Biden increased his lead in Arizona by ~800 too.
Georgia
-1,479
Mopshell,
Hopefully they'll mention it again with more detail.
Hopefully, I heard wrong.
Pennsylvania
-18,229
Georgia
-1,267
Pennsylvania - 18,229
Georgia - 1709
Well done, Kick! I missed the update on Georgia by seconds! :) But I don't care because these are good looking numbers!
Georgia is even better at -1,267. :)
North Carolina isn't out of it yet. Biden is behind by 76, 737 votes with around 328,000 ballots (~6%) yet to count. I'd say these are mail-in ballots which may help Cal Cunningham too. He's 96,698 behind so he needs to pull in two-thirds of the remaining ballots to get clear of Tillis.
There was a strong push by NC GOP to discourage mail-in voting so it is feasible that 66-70% of the mail-ins are Democratic votes.
I've given up on the race, and am content to let you two fight it out for "First!"
:-)
-CW
[165] Kick
Oh yeah - and I'm gonna want something stronger than lemonade to celebrate that! :)
[167] Chris
I don't mind getting beat in this race because the numbers keep getting better and better no matter who posts first!
Mopshell -
Yeah, no lie. I'm going to stay up until PA stops posting numbers, tonight...
-CW
I think GA has called it a night, so don't expect any more updates from them...
-CW
Georgia
-665
Fat Donny is twittering lies at this hour and also claiming that Twitter is out of control. lol
Once in a while he says something that's true by mistake.
Kick -
Wow. I thought GA was done! That's great news!
-CW
Chris
174
Wow. I thought GA was done! That's great news!
I thought they were done too, but then Clayton County posted some more. Go figure!
Philly is up counting also. :)
The orange one: So now the Democrats are working to gain control of the U.S. Senate through their actions on John James, David Perdue, and more. Would End the Filibuster, “Life”, 2A, and would Pack and Rotate the Court.
Holy cow! The Dems are going to end life through their actions?
[176] John
Holy cow! The Dems are going to end life through their actions?
Trump seems a teensy bit upset. :)))
Trump seems a teensy bit deranged...
-CW
He's having an episode.
He keeps trying to tweet video of his statement from earlier this evening and they keep hiding it behind a warning that basically says he's lying.
His special status on that platform should end soon.
Something should be done about these Democrats taking actions like voting!
It's getting tense at the Maricopa County Elections Department. Nutcase Alex Jones has showed up to incite the Q-loons. I feel sorry for the vote counters.
JFC [181] -
That can't be good...
-CW
He's embarrassing himself and our entire nation in front of the world. He's already lost a boatload of cases in court regarding stopping the counting of ballots and all sorts of invented BS.
Here is their latest attempt to stop the vote counting in Nevada. They're filing suits all over to stop counting where they know they're going to lose and throw out ballots before they can be counted.
https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/11/Stokke-v-Cegavske.pdf
Trump is not a clown... he is an entire circus. #Pathetic
Tweet by Stephen Colbert:
Let's take a moment to appreciate that we're waiting to find out if the winner of the election is going to win the election.
[178] Chris
Can you do something to get this site to accept images because that comment deserved five stars and a row of laughing emoji!
Georgia: 463
We are lucky that the orange one fails at ending vote counting like he fails at holding on to inherited money.
A question from Joan on Twitter:
Will PA report the electronic tally before the mail-in tally is completed?
Anyone know the answer?
The flip-side is that he fails at controlling plagues like he fails at holding on to inherited money.
Georgia
-463
[190] Kick
Check comment 186... It's the only time I'm going to beat you to it so I'm making the most of it. :)
Colbert's monologue was one of the darkest things I've ever seen on late nite TV.
Man, that was downright apocalyptic.
GA 463? Wow... gotta stay up for a bit...
-CW
This tweet from Native American Oyate (people) in South Dakota:
Oglala Lakota County, SD, was one of
the highest percentages 88.4%
in the Nation to vote for Biden/Harris.
Very Proud of our Oyate...
NBC has called PA for Biden.
Biden has taken the lead in:
Georgia, Georgia, the whole day through...
That's what I'm talking about. :)
Disclaimer: It's a lead; let's hope he can keep it.
__________
Now's the part where Donald and the MAGA cult minion mobs reverse course and whine like toddlers about counting all the votes they went to court to sue to stop them from counting. #Pathetic
The republicans aren't happy...
So on Fox Gingrich advises President Trump to have Bill Barr arrest election workers in Pennsylvania and then have the state legislature throw out the results of the election.
Mopshell
191
Check comment 186... It's the only time I'm going to beat you to it so I'm making the most of it. :)
Hey! You got me! I wouldn't have posted it again if I had seen it. :)
Georgia
Oops, I forgot this part on my post at [195]
Biden +917
Kick,
Fantastic news! WashPo hasn't updated yet but Australian television has. My housemate tells me there's less than 1% of votes to count in Georgia. Biden should garner the majority of the ones left which, I hope, will put him far enough in front to negate a recount.
Perdue is headed for a runoff as John Ossoff improves his position too. The overwhelming message from this is that in the two Senate runoff contests, all Georgia Democrats absolutely must vote by paper ballot, either in-person or by mail, to give both Dem candidates a chance.
O Frabjous Day!
Washington Post took their time but they've finally given Georgia a lovely coat of blue!
Mopshell -
Callooh! Callay!
Heh.
-CW
Chris,
Lewis Carroll understood that the best way to celebrate a huge win is with brand new words! :)))
I think Georgia has stopped counting for the night. May they all sleep the sleep of the just and wake refreshed to continue with their task
tomorrowlater today!what a peachy thing to wake up to! oh my!
JL
https://i.makeagif.com/media/1-10-2019/lXPoyQ.gif
positively frabjuous.
These cromulent results have embiggened my faith in America.
GA (270towin)
Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,449,582 49.4%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 2,448,485 49.4%
Morning update
Pennsylvania: Trump +18,049
Georgia: Biden +1,097
Arizona: Biden +47,052
Nevada: Biden +11,438
Here is a little treat for eveyone As Senator Biden remains on the cusp of becomeing the next president of the United States,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jzDnsjYv9A
Completely off topic, but anyone notice that in the font of the comments, various numbers are higher and lower and bigger and smaller than others?
1234567890
6 and 8 are higher up than the rest of the numbers, and 1, 2, and 0 are smaller than the rest.
I think my brain may be a bit burned out, or I may just be a little sleep deprived. Been a rough couple of days.
i.e. biden is 1097 votes up, with 1% left to count.
in GA that is. arizona and nevada still have large chunks as yet uncounted.
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand pennsylvania!
here we go!
“No, maybe I can’t win, maybe the only thing I can do is just take everything he’s got. But to beat me, he’s gonna have to kill me, and to kill me, he’s gonna have to have the heart to stand in front of me, and to do that, he’s gotta be willing to die himself and I don’t know if he’s ready to do that. I don’t know, I don’t know.”
– Rocky
Holy cow, it happened! Biden takes a 5,587 vote lead in Pennsylvania!
I've been wearing my gray Penn State shirt. Time to change into the blue one now.
oh wait, that was rocky IV. and in putin news....
It's over baby!
https://www.thedailybeast.com/our-commander-in-chief-donald-trump-is-a-petulant-little-child-and-the-bad-guys-of-the-world-have-his-number
Got a bit giddy... this was pic link I wanted.
https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1687,w_3000,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1571346425/191017-wilson-trump-toddler-tease_t7c0cj
It's a near run thing, but it looks like Trump has no path to EV victory. If he wants to avoid the real prospects of financial ruin and/or prison he would wise to get his pimply ass out of the country. I'm assuming he has a Swiss bank account or the equivalent.
TS [218]
Not sure about a Swiss bank account, but we do know he has a Chinese bank account...
I've been watching Fox (which isn't easy). They seem to have already decided on the narrative that Fat Donny lost because Philly didn't allow count watching. They're repeating that incessantly.
I didn't fall asleep; you fell asleep! :P
What'd I miss? Did a right wingers' head explode yet? *laughs*
[1] Elizabeth Miller wrote:
"Could it be that Democrats are just not fighting the right fight in Ohio or greater Rust Belt or elsewhere in the country?"
Not likely. The two parties have been sorting themselves out for a while now. Republicans are becoming the party of people without a college degree, and those in declining manufacturing jobs.
Democrats are becoming the party of the college educated and those working in the high tech or mostly information based economy.
Level of education now determines and accounts for party identification more than any other factor. As does the rural / suburban and urban divide.
I seriously doubt that ANY Democrat will ever get those white blue collar voters back no matter what the message.
[105] Elizabeth Miller wrote:
"No Mopshell, I'm not talking about congressional electorates - I'm talking about Indian country."
One of the stories about this election will be how the African American vote, especially women, won the election for Biden in places like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta.
The other will be the collapse of the Latino vote swinging from Biden to Trump in places like the Rio Grande valley of Texas and south Florida's Miami / Dade county. The label of socialist worked with Cuban and Venezuelan Americans, as did the lack of community outreach by Democrats in those areas. Democrats need Latino leaders from their own community to canvass for votes, not white outsiders. And the outreach needs to start much earlier and longer, like Stacey Abrams did in Georgia.
[166] Mopshell wrote:
"North Carolina isn't out of it yet. Biden is behind by 76, 737 votes with around 328,000 ballots (~6%) yet to count. I'd say these are mail-in ballots which may help Cal Cunningham too. He's 96,698 behind so he needs to pull in two-thirds of the remaining ballots to get clear of Tillis."
Didn't Cal Cunningham concede the race already to Tillis, or am I wrong?
Office of Special Counsel has opened an investigation into the Trump campaign's use of the White House for campaign-related activities to see if federal law has been violated.
Spoiler Alert: Federal law has been violated.
[224] John M
I don't know but regardless of whether or not Cunningham conceded, the race has not yet been called and mail-in ballots continue to arrive and need counting. At one point this race was showing a 99% count completed but is now back to 94%, presumably due to the arrival of mail-in ballots.
But there doesn't seem to be any counting going on in NC for the last couple of days and none this morning either. WYF NC?
John M [223]
I think Julian Castro needs to get a prominent position in the cabinet. He's still popular in Texas, and would be an ideal candidate for Latino outreach. I was actually hoping he'd be a VP candidate this year back when the primaries started. At 46 years old, he's still young enough to spend some more time as a cabinet member before moving up.
[221] Kick
I didn't fall asleep; you fell asleep! :P
Yeah I did, only just woken up at stupid o'clock in the morning here. What's going on?
What'd I miss? Did a right wingers' head explode yet? *laughs*
Hahaha! Dunno what I missed either but I've a feeling I'm gonna enjoy finding out! ;) :)
Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are becoming reliably Republican, (The farmers in Iowa still voted for Trump, despite being seriously hurt by his trade war, as did the Latinos in south Florida.) while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are definitely purple. (They were saved for the Democrats when turnout is still high in their big cities. I.E. Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia.) Chicago dominates Illinois, and New York City does the same for the state of New York. On the flip side, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are following Virginia in becoming more Democratic, with Atlanta dominating Georgia and Phoenix doing the same for Arizona, as does Washingotn D.C. for northern Virgina, just like Chicago and New York city for their respective states. It also explains why Texas remains just out of reach, due to its large size, lack of domination by one city, and much more extensive rural area.
[227] Bleyd
I too hope Julián Castro is offered a cabinet position. He proved himself to be an excellent HUD Secretary. He may like to continue in that role or perhaps move into another concerning immigrants - would that be the Department of Homeland Security?
[226] Mopshell wrote:
"But there doesn't seem to be any counting going on in NC for the last couple of days and none this morning either. WYF NC?"
North Carolina has said that they will not complete their vote count until next week. Presumably to allow for all their military votes to come in by mail from overseas? A perfectly reasonable and not unusual circumstance at all, especially in a very close election.
[229] John M
You need to factor in the electronic election cheating in some of those states to show their true colours. The high number of mail-in ballots is what is revealing the true colour of states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. The same will be true of North Carolina if only they'd get down to counting those mail-in ballots - what the hell's going on down there?
Arizona
Biden +43,779
__________
Good news: Maricopa County releases counts, and Biden is still leading with Trump underperforming the numbers he needs to overtake Biden in Arizona. The vast majority of the remaining ballots to be counted are mail-in ballots which will favor Democrats. Biden is still on track to win Arizona.
Other examples following the assumptions in 229 include Seattle for Washington state and Portland for Oregon. California's flip can be directly traced to the before and after effects of the passage of Prop 187 in 1994 and the impact on California's local Latino population especially. California went from reliably Republican to reliably Democratic. Other cultural trends were responsible too, but the diving line is very stark in this instance.
[231] John M
North Carolina has said that they will not complete their vote count until next week. Presumably to allow for all their military votes to come in by mail from overseas? A perfectly reasonable and not unusual circumstance at all, especially in a very close election.
Thank you for that explanation though what you find a "perfectly reasonable and not unusual circumstance at all," I find somewhat worrying given the perfidiousness of the NC GOP.
Dividing line not diving, LOL :-) Hate typos!
Georgia
Biden +1,586
Arizona
They finally called it for Mark Kelly. Arizona will have two Democratic senators. Suck it, GOP.
[233] Kick
I'm loving all this good news!
Mopshell [230]
I was thinking of him returning to HUD as well. It's something he's proven himself good at, and also provides an excellent avenue to connect with minorities.
I am curious though if he might take an interest in running for Congress in 2022 or challenging Cruz for his senate seat in 2024. Or maybe he'd be interested in challenging Greg Abbott for governor in 2022. If he's as interested in eventually being president as he appears to be, serving in one of those would offices would significantly help his bid.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is OVER 9000!
Sorry if that was a little too nerdy for this crowd...
You can also see the same thing in the way that Las Vegas has come to dominate Nevada. Mega urban areas and their suburbs trending heavily Democratic. Boston influences all of New England. Where cities lost population or were never that big to begin with in relation to their surrounding area, New Orleans in Louisiana or St. Louis in Missouri, those states moved more Republican. Michigan went purple due to the heavy population loss of Detroit.
Mopshell
Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day are accepted until November 12 (not a typo) in North Carolina. Just a guess, but I bet they are counting the mail-in votes and not releasing the counts. Those will likely heavily be from Democrats as well.
Bleyd and Mopshell
Looking down the road further, how about a Kamala Harris / Pete Buttigieg ticket for president and vice president after Biden? As long as we are speculating... Or maybe Harris / Castro? And a Democratic African American Speaker of the House after Pelosi?
Nevada
Biden +22,076
John M [244]
When would that potential ticket be in play, 2028 or 2024? I feel like there's a decent chance that Biden could step away after a single term if things are looking more normal. The job is known to age people at a rapid rate, and he'll already be 78 when he's inaugurated. If he feels like he's successfully brought the country back to sanity, I think he may step aside for the youth movement.
Georgia
There are still ~5,000 votes coming from Gwinnett County. Those are Atlanta 'burbs and should help pad Biden's lead in Georgia. :)
The state of States yet to be called:
Nevada +11,438 with 9% left to count
Arizona +43,779 with 7% left to count
Georgia +1,584 with <1% left to count
North Carolina - 76,737 with 6% left to count
Pennsylvania +8,867 with 5% left to count
I reckon Biden's on track for 321 EVs!
[244] John M
I'd very much like to see a Harris/Castro ticket.
As for Speaker of the House, I think Pelosi will retire at the end of 2022 and the gavel will pass to Adam Schiff. When he moves on, I'd like to see Katie Porter follow him.
However, in lieu of Porter, especially if she moves into a cabinet position which is another strong possibility for her, Lauren Underwood might be ready to pick up the gavel.
Mopshell
Biden is up by +20,542 in Nevada.
[245] Kick
Nevada
Biden +22,076
As per usual, I'm liking your numbers way better than mine! Are you seeing this on the picture box or the intertubes? I'm watching via WashPo which has become very slow to update.
[250] Kick
Biden is up by +20,542 in Nevada
And the news just keeps getting better! I do wish WashPo would update faster though. Might try a local station...
Mopshell
251
Multiple sources... brain overload! ;)
They've already declared the space over Biden's house in Delaware as National Defense Air Space. The transition has already begun.
Steve Bannon has called for the beheading of Dr. Fauci and Chris Wray and has been banned by Twitter.
https://twitter.com/FrankFigliuzzi1/status/1324485819042705408
[254] Kick
They've already declared the space over Biden's house in Delaware as National Defense Air Space. The transition has already begun.
O fabrous day! Callooh! Callay!
Steve Bannon has called for the beheading of Dr. Fauci and Chris Wray and has been banned by Twitter.
Possibly (though not necessarily since I find myself in a really silly mood with a craving for tomato soup and garlic bread at 3:48 in the morning) a comma after Wray might have prevented my thinking for one very confused second that it was Wray that Twitter had banned! But common sense decrees that of course it was Bannon; he was ever the extremist radical with bloody visions of violence.
[253] Kick wrote:
Multiple sources... brain overload! ;)
Hang in there! :)))
What's up with Alaska?
Pennsylvania
Biden +12,390
The only prominent Republicans contradicting Fat Donny's lies are Larry Hogan (surprising nobody) and Pat Toomey (already announced that he won't run for re-election). There will be no cooperation with Mr President of Everybody. Let's hope he's clear about that.
Pennsylvania
Biden +13,371
It's ridiculous that so many news organizations are being so timid about calling Biden the president-elect. PA is obvious. NV is over. It's bizarre that they are waiting while Fat Donny and the GOP are working overtime spewing toxic sewage.
@bleyd,
dragonball isn't about nerdy or not, it's a generational thing.
JL
@jfc,
probably they're being overcautious to avoid even the semblance of the appearance of partisan bias in calling the race.
JL
nypoet22 [263]
I think that's most likely. Also, considering how much the race has shifted from day to day, it's probably for the best to wait until as much vote as possible is counted, just to be certain. The last thing the media wants right now is to call the election and end up being wrong. No matter how it went, it would cause chaos and destroy what the little credibility they still have.
They're not the referees. They're just media organizations making projections. It's obvious at this point. There's no risk to their reputations. The death cult is convinced they're fake anyway.
JFC [265]
By that same logic, there's no benefit to them projecting a winner yet either. Look, they've been wrong a lot regarding presidential elections over the past 4 years, so they really need a win. And by win, I mean an instance where they are not wrong.
Keep in mind, those who still retain a decent amount of trust for the news media can already tell that Biden has won anyway, so they don't need the media to declare it for them. Those who have little trust would see a declaration at this point as more evidence of bias towards Biden since there are still votes to be counted. There's simply nothing to be gained by the news media by declaring a winner right now.
They would be standing up for our country and how we decide who runs the place. They would be countering Fat Donny's false claim that he has won. They need to do it today.
They could even use weasel words like apparent winner.
JFC [267]
I would argue that they have been countering Trump's bullshit for the most part. They don't have to declare Biden the winner to do that. Time will prove who the real winner is, and the more Trump tries to declare it to be himself, the weaker and more pathetic he looks.
I think the news media is handling things exactly the right way. They are reporting the numbers. They are reporting on counting process, how it is being done and how it is being safeguarded. That is the most important thing they can be doing right now, because the more transparent the process of the vote counting is, the less credible Trump's accusations of fraud and cheating become. The best way to fight his constant stream of bullshit is by showing the truth as plainly and simply as possible so that it can't be ignored. The news media has been doing that, and that is far more important than projecting a winner.
John From Censornati
261
It's ridiculous that so many news organizations are being so timid about calling Biden the president-elect.
I know, right!?
PA is obvious.
On Tuesday night, you could already see that Trump was underperforming in the North and Northeast compared to 2016. I mentioned this:
http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/11/03/closing-time-schedule/#comment-171098
We already knew how many mail-in ballots had been sitting there for weeks and months just waiting to be counted so we knew what kind of numbers Trump would need from the election day voters, and they just weren't there when the dust settled.
So Biden wasn't ever "catching up" to Trump because those votes were cast long ago and sitting in boxes just waiting to be counted because PA election workers weren't allowed to count them. You could also tell from the numbers on Tuesday that Biden had a shot at Georgia because there were shit-tons of ballots in Fulton and DeKalb and all those John Lewis counties that had yet to be counted.
NV is over.
Yep. Same reason. We know how many ballots have been sitting there waiting to be counted, and Clark County has 90% of them and is heavily Democratic... Vegas, baby!
It's bizarre that they are waiting while Fat Donny and the GOP are working overtime spewing toxic sewage.
When Biden came to the podium and said they were confident they had won, he was calm, cool, and collected because he knew he had won. Now juxtapose that with Fat Donny's speech on election day wherein he stated they would sue in the Supreme Court... as if anybody could just go directly to the SCOTUS. *laughs* Somebody who knew he had won doesn't talk about suing in the SCOTUS. The Trump campaign and Fat Donny knew they had lost on election night; Fat Donny lies like a rug, but words and body language that night weren't lying... he knew. It was only a matter of counting those ballots that were sitting there waiting for all that time because the GOP went to court and sued in order to keep them from being counted until election day. :)
Joe Biden built back the Blue Wall, and Donald Trump is going to pay for it. :)
Georgia
Biden +4,186
wow.
Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,455,856 49.4%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 2,451,732 49.3%
North Carolina
If the mail-in ballots come in somewhere around 65%-70% for Biden, it's actually possible that Biden could win in North Carolina. The mail-in ballots have been coming in primarily Blue... so we'll see what happens when North Carolina finishes counting in... oh, say... two weeks. :)
Pennsylvania
Biden +16,784
By the time they're done, I don't think Pennsylvania is going to be close enough to warrant a recount. That should mean Biden will be president-elect, regardless of what recounts Trump may try to demand in Georgia or elsewhere.
Biden - just shy of 21,000 in PA!
Thanks to Allegheny County.
Just woken up - again - and I'm loving these numbers! As I said before my latest snooze, I think Biden will end up with 321 EVs. That's going to explode a few right-wing heads, not least of all Michale's. ;)
I notice since his... was it a late Tuesday visit?... he's not been seen since. I guess he's finding it hard to face all the losing, especially after all the crowing he did while here.
Pittsburgh, baby!
When Biden took the lead in PA, that was the end of Trump's path to the presidency. So here's what happened at that moment in Philadelphia:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129
"The question of who ends up being president is really a matter of life and death." ... Jake Tapper on choosing a president during a worssening epidemic.
THere are currently 102,000 outstanding ballots to be counted in PA, most in blue counties and so Senator Casey may be right on with his prediction of Biden ending up 100,000 votes ahead of Trump in PA, assuming Biden gets about 80,000 of what is remaining to be counted.
I just realized it's... Friday.
Friday!
Kick [281]
And if sports have taught us anything, by morning, at least one of those cars will be upside down.
Bleyd
285
Heh! :)
Arizona getting closer. Biden's lead down to just under 30k now. As long as Pennsylvania or Georgia holds up, it won't matter, but I'd still be more comfortable with a win in Arizona.