Vaccine Appointments Thrown Open Today
Starting today, any American age 16 or older should be able to schedule an appointment to get their first COVID-19 vaccine shot. President Joe Biden originally set a goal of the first of May for this milestone, but was able to move it up a few weeks due to the overwhelming success of his vaccination program so far. Biden's first 100 days won't be up until next week, but he has already met or is on track to meet every pandemic-response goal he set for his administration -- including getting an astounding 200 million shots into people's arms in his first 100 days. This was actually a doubling of Biden's original stated goal, but he'll still hit the increased target he set for himself. It seems probable, at this point, that Biden's first year in office will largely be judged on the overall success America ultimately sees in the fight against the deadly disease. And up until this point, Biden's been doing a pretty stellar job.
Of course, in politics, nothing is permanent. So this could change in a number of ways. Some other crisis could appear after the threat of COVID fades even further, which pushes everything else out of the public's consciousness. Or the remainder of the vaccine rollout might not go as well as the initial phases. This could, in the worst-case scenario, leave the public short of the crucial percentage vaccinated necessary for herd immunity. That would be a blow to the Biden administration, without doubt.
The situation now is pretty good, to be sure. According to the stats, 132.3 million Americans have gotten at least their first "Fauci ouchie" vaccine shot. More than 85 million people have been fully vaccinated. This represents 39.9 percent of the public semi-vaccinated and 25.7 percent fully vaccinated. We've still got a long way to go, but we are getting there much faster now. Over three million shots are given each and every day now, meaning roughly 10 million every three days. When Biden was sworn into office, the same amount of shots would have taken 10 days to administer. That is progress. But 40 percent is still only 40 percent. For all the epidemiologists to relax, that number would have to double (and represent full vaccination, as well).
The appointment system was thrown open everywhere today, although in some states it had already opened up to anyone 16 or over who wanted a shot. This will likely lead to a rush for appointments, so it may be a few weeks or more before everyone who wants one will even be able to secure an appointment (or a shot, at a walk-up clinic or pharmacy). And then there's the lag time (which can be as long as four weeks) until the second shot. So it's really going to take about two more months before everyone who wants a shot today will be fully vaccinated. Two months from now puts us in late June -- right before Independence Day. President Biden promised very early on that America would be able to celebrate the Fourth of July with backyard barbeques, and it's now looking like he'll be able to hit that goal, too.
But there will be two other problems which become more and more apparent during that time period. The first is that not everyone can even get a first shot now. All children and teens 15 years old or younger don't even have a vaccine approved for use yet. We may see F.D.A. emergency approval for shots for teens (ages 12 to 15) fairly soon, but the 11-and-under kids are going to have to wait a lot longer -- possibly until the end of this year. And all that works against the goal of herd immunity. There are at least 65 million Americans who still can't get appointments because they are too young. That is almost 20 percent of the population. Eventually they will begin getting vaccinated, but herd immunity may be out of reach until this happens.
As for the rest of us -- the 16-and-older crowd -- the real outstanding question is how many will voluntarily sign up? There will be a segment of the public who refuses to get their shots, for whatever reason. There will also be a segment who won't initially sign up, but may be persuadable in one way or another. Nobody is quite sure how large each group will be, or how successful the Biden administration will be in persuading enough of them to get vaccinated.
This may become the measure of Biden's success against the virus. Over time, as millions and millions of people have gotten vaccinated safely, resistance to getting a shot has gone way down. As more and more people get their shots, they'll convince their own friends and neighbors and family members how safe it is. And when we get to that turnover point -- when the vaccine supply is greater than the demand for it -- a massive media push will be happening in an effort to convince the holdouts that it is in their best interests to get the shot. The only real question is how many people are completely dead-set against getting vaccinated versus those who either need just a little persuasion or maybe just easy and hassle-free access to a shot.
My guess is that from 40 percent vaccinated, the number will climb pretty easily to around 60 percent. But the last 15 or 20 percent necessary for herd immunity is going to go a lot slower than the pace we're experiencing right now. Right now, over half of adults have at least gotten their first shot. But what happens when that number stalls?
Of course, when the children get approval for vaccination, the overall percentage will jump upwards a bit (the percent of the total population, in other words). Perhaps the kids will be enough to push us all over the herd immunity hurdle.
While some now are predicting that Biden's entire first term will be judged on how successful we fight off COVID, or even that the midterm elections next year will hinge on it, I am personally skeptical it will still be that important that far down the political road. I know how short Americans' memories are when it comes to this sort of stuff. But I do think that Biden's entire first year in office will largely be judged by the relative success the vaccination drive achieves. If we do hit herd immunity and life does indeed return to normalcy by the year-end holidays, then I think President Biden is going to be judged a huge success on this front. If, however, herd immunity remains elusive due to too many refusing the vaccine, then Biden could be judged more harshly. But so far, at least, the successes and milestones he has achieved have indeed been impressive, so there certainly is reason for optimism in the longer term as well.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Should we even care if half the world doesn't reach herd immunity? What happens if a variant appears that renders all of the vaccines we have now ineffective. How many waves of this thing are we willing to suffer before we smarten up as a global community?
Liz-
We are way past that point. This disease is endemic in humans now. Luckily, evolution favors the less lethal when it comes to viruses. Like I mentioned to Stucki, if you have ever had the flu, it was very likely a descendant to the 1918 Spanish flu. We will probably get a booster yearly, maybe it can be mixed with flu vax so to have only one prick...
Endemic? Absolutely, positively, unequivocally!
But, Bashi, if we continue with the grossly inequitous global distribution of vaccines, we risk having to deal with a virus variant far more dangerous than we have seen thus far.
if only there were a way to merge vaccines with pie...
Bashi-2
Not so fast on the evolution favors the less lethal variant. It depends. How rapidly a virus can jump species is a factor. So are host density and host behaviors. There is an extensive literature on this topic.
if only pie could attract a better response on sunday nights...
it can!
TS,
Yes, there isn't exacty a shortage of non-compliant humans.
NYP-5
Work is in progress on a nasal swab delivered COVID vaccine. If that vaccine could injected into a cream pie....we could have drive thruThree Stooges Style inoculations!!!!
Of course, in politics, nothing is permanent. So this could change in a number of ways.
Do y'all remember when the Reagan-Bush the Elder train just got a-rolling? Back then, as always, numerous pundits were solemnly declaring that "the Democrats are Dead for a Generation." Cue Slick Willy and at length Repug hegemony faded away.
Well, it appears that a "political generation" is one or at best two House elections, two "cycles," right?
American political attention span and memory deficiencies may be the only rational anti-marijuana argument Joe has left.
But, Covid has killed 564,292 Americans and almost 10% of our population has been infected, and that's just the official diagnosed cases -- millions went undiagnosed along the way.
It trashed the economy, threw millions out of work and highlighted our racial and economic inequalities.
It earned JOE BIDEN 80 million votes and it looks like we're getting an administration with an FDR-like vision and the skills to get 'er done.
Stuff like this is hard to forget, as it's not anything silly like Transgender bathroom rights. Half a million dead 'Muricans! I think the electorate is not going to forget who made it this bad and who's making it better.
I hereby predict that the Dems will hold the House and flip a couple-three GOP Senate seats next year.
@ts,
good idea, but i think in 2017-2021 the white house has had about all the stooges it can handle.
I also don't believe the majority of the electorate will hold it against Joe if vax rates aren't ideal. After all, Joe wasn't the one that did such a number on the Trumpanzies, some of who were already anti-vax. Remember, these are the geniuses that still think the election was stolen and that QAnon is real. Hell, some of them think that Trump built his wall and Mexico secretly paid for it.
Trump changed politics. His direct way of speaking [lies, albeit] helped him beat 16 conventional Repugs in 2016...and then beat conventional Hillary. People hate politician talk. And both parties (cue DeathkillerDon) have lied to the American people for 40 years now.
It may be only temporary but we are in a political situation where action talks and bullshit walks. I don't think we're in Kansas anymore, Toto. Not nowadays.
[4]
Elizabeth Miller wrote:
But, Bashi, if we continue with the grossly inequitous global distribution of vaccines, we risk having to deal with a virus variant far more dangerous than we have seen thus far.
Your point is well taken, but I cannot see any leader, dictator or democrat NOT prioritizing the needs of their country first. "If word got out" blah blah blah.
G'Nite, everybody! Dream sweet dreams of our impending Socialist Utopia.
Caddy,
Yeah, politically it's hard but it's also in the brutal self-interest of all of us. As for Biden, he should do both.
At the very least, he should NOT go around bragging about the US being the most vaccinated country on the planet. He doesn't have to do that. That is what really stuck in my craw, truth be known.
Joshua[8],
Duly noted!
The US has purchased vaccines to cover double its population. These excess vaccines should be shared with low income countries, yesterday!
As of a couple of months ago, more than 80% of all vaccines distributed have gone to rich countries while less than half of one percent have gone to poor countries.
The WHO and its member states had the all-important vaccine equity all figured out last year before vaccines came on line but countries set up their own purchase deals in bilateral fashion with the vaccine manufacturers and it was the wild, wild west all over again.
Because of this gross inequity, where health workers and the most vulnerable to severe disease have not yet been vaccinated in many countries, we will be dealing with this pandemic in rich countries for a lot longer than we otherwise would.
https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/news-stories/news/biden-administration-must-take-bold-action-ensure-global-covid-19
And, where were YOU last night, eh!?
Well, I'm missing a day, seeminly but, you understand ...
@don,
the "democratic" party as it currently stands was created by andrew jackson, which is how it got the "jackass" mascot, and was the party of slavery, segregation and racism until 1948. what i think you're trying to get at is that the party has swung much more conservative since 1980, to the point that gerald ford would be even more at home with today's democrats than 1980's era republicans.
that's just my guess; i forgot to bring my english to don dictionary today. in any case, we'd all feel more at home if we had some pie.
JL
[11] MtnCaddy wrote:
"I hereby predict that the Dems will hold the House and flip a couple-three GOP Senate seats next year."
I completely agree. I think Republicans are in for a rude shock if they think that simply based on historical trends they are going to flip the House next year.
I also see Democrats keeping narrow control of the House and picking up at least 2 Democratic Senate seats.
Just last week, Terd Nugent was complaining that COVID19 has ruined his plans for a Hate and Virus Super-spreader Tour despite the fact that COVID1 through COVID18 hadn't.
Now, he says that he has the "Chinese shit" and "I thought I was going to die".
Unsurprisingly, he is sticking with the Republican plan to destroy America and still encouraging people to avoid getting vaccinated.
[13] MtnCaddy wrote:
"I also don't believe the majority of the electorate will hold it against Joe if vax rates aren't ideal. After all, Joe wasn't the one that did such a number on the Trumpanzies, some of who were already anti-vax. Remember, these are the geniuses that still think the election was stolen and that QAnon is real. Hell, some of them think that Trump built his wall and Mexico secretly paid for it."
I have also heard that these same QAnon Trump supporters also think in all seriousness that Trump in fact is still President because Trump and Biden switched bodies and Trump now inhabits Joe Biden's body, if you can believe that!!!
John M
I have also heard that these same QAnon Trump supporters also think in all seriousness that Trump in fact is still President because Trump and Biden switched bodies and Trump now inhabits Joe Biden's body, if you can believe that!!!
If that is true, then they should support everything that Biden proposes without question! I’m all for that!
Liz [18]
The US has purchased vaccines to cover double its population. These excess vaccines should be shared with low income countries, yesterday!
No way! They knew they had to purchase double the amount if we were to have any hope that we’d have enough to fully vaccine our population. They realized that a lot of those vaccines would go in the trash because of people failing to show up at appointments, accidents, and human error. Anytime you are purchasing supplies for a large group of people, you best budget in enough supplies in case something happens and you need more. When I would take 200 kids camping for 3 nights/2 days, we bought enough food for 300 4 nights/3 days.
If there is remaining vaccines once we have taken care of everyone here, then by all means it should be given to needy countries. If we need to act quicker, then maybe it is time to have a new “We Are the World”-style fund raiser? I figure that would be an easy sell to get big named artists involved.
Russ,
What you say would be viable IF there were enough vaccines for everyone on the planet and IF we didn't have to worry about virus variants of major concern and more dangerous than we have seen thus far.
There are not nearly enough vaccines to vaccinate the world's health workers and most vulnerable to severe disease, let alone entire national populations.
In this context, the point of vaccinations now is to avoid death, not the sniffles.
Maximum vaccination in the US will not protect the US from dangerous virus variants that emerge in low and middle income countries and that may render current vaccines ineffective.
Gross vaccine inequity will prolong the pandemic - for the US and everyone else. We may not be acting like we're all in this together but, make no mistake, we ARE all in this together and no country is safe until ALL countries are safe. That is a fact and how viruses work against us all.
FUN FACTS
* Japan has vaccinated approximately 1% of its population.
* Tokyo is hosting the 2020 (postponed) Summer Olympics.
* The Summer Olympics are set to begin in less than 100 days.
Anyone wishing to concern themselves with a country that is screwing up the global response to COVID need look no further than Japan.
Jury verdicts rendered for three murder charges after merely 11 hours of deliberation. Dang that was quick. This usually (but certainly not always) is a bad sign for the Defense.
Kick,
Japan is proving that vaccines aren't the way out of this pandemic.
There isn't community transmission in Japan as there is the US and, indeed, North America.
In Japan, the cumulative deaths per 100,000 is less than 8. Compare to the US where that number is 170.
So, no, Japan is not the country "screwing up the global response", as you put it.
We here in the Americas can learn a lot from Japan's response and from the response from the Western Pacific region - about how effective the basic public health protocols can be when communities work together to keep themselves and others safe by reducing transmission.
Kick,
So, I'm thinking that the jury focused on the second degree murder charge, reviewed the evidence and decided on a guilty verdict. Then, of course, it's guilty on the other two charges as well.
Hope I'm right!
Elizabeth Miller
16|18
At the very least, he should NOT go around bragging about the US being the most vaccinated country on the planet.
In point of fact, Biden has never said the US was the most vaccinated country on the planet. Why would he when Israel has vaccinated almost 2/3rds of its population? Biden said the United States was vaccinating more people per day than any other country, and he's correct. Regardless, if you'd like Biden to win a second term versus being saddled with a right-wing fascist, you'll get over him explaining the successes of his administration in comparison to the previous one. The Obama/Biden administration didn't do enough horn tooting, and I would wager that Biden doesn't aim to repeat that.
That is what really stuck in my craw, truth be known.
Well, if you're concerned at all about his reelection, you best get it unstuck out of there and lay off Biden and/or Democrats for finally announcing their successes and doing a little horn tooting.
The US has purchased vaccines to cover double its population. These excess vaccines should be shared with low income countries, yesterday!
Purchasing and receiving the vaccines are two different things; millions of vaccines are still being manufactured. Also, the Trump administration negotiated the contracts with the vaccine manufacturers, and the Trump "America First" fascists nationalists included prohibitive clauses in those contracts:
*
The WHO and its member states had the all-important vaccine equity all figured out last year before vaccines came on line but countries set up their own purchase deals in bilateral fashion with the vaccine manufacturers and it was the wild, wild west all over again.
Operative words there being "last year."
Because of this gross inequity, where health workers and the most vulnerable to severe disease have not yet been vaccinated in many countries, we will be dealing with this pandemic in rich countries for a lot longer than we otherwise would.
You want to focus on a country underperforming in spectacular fashion? Japan has vaccinated around 1% of the country, and those aged 65+ are about 28% of their entire population. Japan is entering its fourth wave at present with cases rising. Meanwhile, the Summer Olympics are coming right up in less than 100 days, and somebody (anybody) should really call those things off... but who's going to make them... WHO?
Elizabeth Miller
31
Japan is proving that vaccines aren't the way out of this pandemic.
I mean this in the nicest way possible, but it seems rather the definition of "insanity" to while repetitively and mercilessly about vaccines not being shared by the "rich countries" and how we're all totally effed unless we "share," and then turn right around a make the claim that "vaccines aren't the way out of this pandemic."
If vaccines aren't the way out, then why are you moaning about them not being shared. Pick a lane; you can't have them both. I'm just saying... in a nice way.
There isn't community transmission in Japan as there is the US and, indeed, North America.
Oh, really? Then why has Japan announced a "quasi state of emergency" as more contagious variants of COVID-19 are spreading for Osaka (second largest city in Japan)?
So, no, Japan is not the country "screwing up the global response", as you put it.
They're entering their 4th wave and have vaccinated 1% of their entire population. Might want to check that out, EM.
We here in the Americas can learn a lot from Japan's response and from the response from the Western Pacific region - about how effective the basic public health protocols can be when communities work together to keep themselves and others safe by reducing transmission.
Nope.
I would wager guilty on all counts.
Elizabeth Miller
32
Ding, ding, ding!
Winner, winner... chicken dinner.
Kick,
In point of fact, Biden has never said the US was the most vaccinated country on the planet.
Actually, he did and on more than one occasion.
Vaccines are the way to prevent death of the most vulnerable.
EDIT
Elizabeth Miller
31
I mean this in the nicest way possible, but it seems rather the definition of "insanity" to whine repetitively...
Now that sentence makes some sense.
And I really do mean all that comment in [31] nicely, EM... you're complaining about vaccines and then doing 180s on us and claiming they're not the way out! Imma need you to pick a lane. ;)
EDIT OF MY EDIT
And I really do mean all that comment in [33] nicely, EM...
The US is the most vaccinated by total numbers but not by percentage. Those that beat the US by percentage are all much smaller countries except the UK...
Elizabeth Miller
37
Me: In point of fact, Biden has never said the US was the most vaccinated country on the planet.
You: Actually, he did and on more than one occasion.
I'm talking about the context of percentages. If Biden did say that, his context likely wasn't percentages but regarding sheer numbers of vaccinations given.
Vaccines are the way to prevent death of the most vulnerable.
Well then, somebody better tell Japan since they've only vaccinated 1% of their population, have now called for emergency lockdowns in Osaka with Tokyo hot on Osaka's heels, and are now entering their fourth wave of the pandemic, with 28% of their population being "most vulnerable" because they are 65+.
Next time you begin whining about the vaccine (lack of) sharing, I will remind you that Elizabeth Miller says vaccines aren't the way out of this pandemic and how Japan is doing such a bang up job in their COVID response:
<blockquote
In Japan, the cumulative deaths per 100,000 is less than 8. Compare to the US where that number is 170.
If the virus only spread and mutated based on the number of victims that actually succumbed to it, you would actually have a valid point, but it's spreading and mutating in Japan regardless of their number of fatalities... so your statistic is rather meaningless regarding the global spread of COVID and its variants. It spreads and mutates regardless of morbidity rate.
So to recap:
Japan... Osaka, Tokyo, state of emergency:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-20/tokyo-has-decided-to-seek-state-of-emergency-mainichi-says
Immunizations of those 65+ began days ago in April 2021 in Japan, and they've vaccinated about 1% of their population... but, hey, who needs vaccines anyway? /sarcasm off.
Kick,
Let me be clear.
Vaccines alone will not get us out of this pandemic. Since the beginning of this pandemic, we have had in our possession all the tools necessary to beat this virus. Some countries have been able to implement these public health measures better than others and we can all learn from each other what are the best practices.
While vaccinces are in such short supply they need to be used for vaccinating healthcare workers and the most vulnerable to developing severe disease and death - in ALL countries! Incredibly, there are still some countries whose healthcare workers have not yet been vaccinated! Whose most vulnerable have not yet been vaccinated!
The WHO has been working hard and tirelessly long before the development of vaccines to set up a regime for vaccine equity known as the COVAX Facility. Which was meant to be the global clearinghouse for vaccine distribution so that the world's healthcare workers and most vulnerable to severe disease and death from COVID-19 could be vaccinated in order to save lives, as many lives as possible.
Unfortunately, the richer countries bypassed this equitable system that they themselves help set up and instead pursued bilateral arrangements with vaccine manufacturers. From a brutally political perspective, this inequitous approach is entirely understandable. But, the fact remains that this grossly inequitous distrubution of vaccines will prolong this pandemic and its economic fallout for all of us.
Kick,
Lastly, I would highly recomment viewing the WHO virtual press conferences which have been happening since before this health crisis was called a pandemic.
The WHO DG, Dr. Tedros, along with Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, Mike Ryan and WHO COVID-19 technical lead, your fellow American Maria Van Kerkhove, have been invaluable in giving extremely comprehensive and helpful advice on how to save lives and shut down this virus from the beginning.
Elizabeth Miller
43
Let me be clear.
There's never been an impediment on my end... so knock yourself out. By all means, be clear.
Vaccines alone will not get us out of this pandemic.
Oh, FFS! State the obvious; we all know that.
Since the beginning of this pandemic, we have had in our possession all the tools necessary to beat this virus.
Incorrect because of your usage of the words "all" and "beat."
Some countries have been able to implement these public health measures better than others and we can all learn from each other what are the best practices.
Incorrect. Stop with the usage of "all"... since there are obviously multiple countries who couldn't teach us a dang thing about "public health measures" and/or "best practices."
While vaccinces are in such short supply they need to be used for vaccinating healthcare workers and the most vulnerable to developing severe disease and death - in ALL countries!
Okay. I'm going to stop right there. I've heard all this crap before. #SSDD However, the United States doesn't control the world's supply of vaccinations and can't force other countries to vaccinate or take any other public measures. You can keep whining about this on autopilot ad nauseam, but it won't change the fact that we cannot and do not control all nations. Then there are those contracts negotiated by the Trump administration, etc.
Me? I can't control the world's supply of vaccines. What I can do is volunteer to give them and cajole those hesitant to take them into changing their minds, and I'm good at it. So I've given a shit-ton of vaccines and cajoled many into taking it... even paid some of them (don't tell the others).
To the extent I can control the world's vaccine supply, I'm already doing it. It seems more productive that bitching repetitively about something I have no control over. :)
Elizabeth Miller
44
Lastly, I would highly recomment viewing the WHO virtual press conferences which have been happening since before this health crisis was called a pandemic.
You're preaching to the choir, Canada.
Yeah, well, sometimes the choir needs a little push ... or a kick in the butt. Heh.