Forever And A Day
President Joe Biden announced to the American people today: "The war in Afghanistan is now over." As he put it: "I was not going to extend this Forever War." One day after the last military plane carried the last soldiers, the commanding general, and the U.S. ambassador out of the country, Biden took the occasion to not only proclaim the war over but also to defend his handling of the end of it.
Biden was far more animated and emotional than he has been over the past few weeks. This is entirely understandable, as during the airlift operation he must have been constantly updated on the status on the ground at Kabul's airport. With the military now finally completely out, Biden must have finally been able to get a decent night's sleep. He was forceful in his address, he strongly defended his position on both the war itself and the withdrawal, and he obviously hopes this speech will be a pivot point to getting back to his domestic agenda and dealing with Hurricane Ida's aftermath.
Whether he will be successful at doing so depends largely (at this point) on what the Taliban does next, and how much the American media loses interest in the story. If a wave of reprisals and atrocities begins on a wide scale in Afghanistan, neither the media nor Biden will likely be able to move on. But if things stay relatively quiet and if all the foreign policy and war reporters eventually move on to different worldwide hotspots, then today may indeed be seen as a political turning point in public opinion.
Most Americans truly wanted to see the end of this war. That part of public opinion is still solidly on Biden's side, even after the problems with the intelligence assessment and the withdrawal. This means most Americans also quite likely now want to put the whole experience behind them. The past few weeks were intense, but that intensity will fade. The public largely did not approve of how the end unfolded, but that hasn't shaken the support for that end happening. As long as Americans who still want to get out of Afghanistan are able to do so eventually (and are not murdered for wanting to leave), both the media and the public will move on from this story.
As for assigning blame, the polls are finding something interesting in how the public sees it all:
The CBS poll also finds that large majorities blame the Afghan army and government, not [President] Biden (or Donald Trump) for the Taliban takeover. That suggests most Americans see the current debacle as the outgrowth of a fundamentally failed overall mission, not the outgrowth of a narrow failure around executing the withdrawal well.
This basic set of nuances also turns up in numerous interviews that the New York Times conducted of voters in a California swing House district. They were well expressed by one independent voter, who declared: "When you have no good choice, you still have to pick one." It's striking how many interviewees said something similar.
This is also the case Biden made today. He was handed a terrible choice -- either send a new surge of American soldiers in to counteract the fact that the Taliban would start attacking our military again, or just pull them all out as Donald Trump had promised to do. Biden also reminded everyone that the deal Trump agreed to also forced the Afghan government (who wasn't even part of the deal at all) to release 5,000 hardened Taliban prisoners, many of whom immediately rejoined the ranks and started fighting again. But Biden's insistence that this was essentially a binary choice -- either escalate or pull out completely -- is what he's been saying all along. It remains to be seen whether this will be a convincing argument to the public, but so far it seems to have gained some traction.
Biden defended the withdrawal itself, calling it a "success," since we did manage to get almost 125,000 people out (over 5,000 of them Americans) in an incredibly short period of time. Biden also made a new case today, pointing out the fact that the Americans who stayed for so long before deciding to leave was at least partially their own fault. Biden pointed out that since March, the U.S. government has sent out 19 separate warnings (of increasing alarm) to all Americans in Afghanistan, all of which strongly urged: "Get out -- now!" But they didn't heed these numerous warnings.
This is blame-shifting, Biden's critics will say. Perhaps, but also perhaps the public will start to see the situation with the remaining Americans a little differently because of this new knowledge. It's not like we could force anyone to leave, after all -- it's always been up to them to decide when and whether to go. As Biden reported, between 100 and 200 American citizens are left in Afghanistan who may want to leave. Most, Biden pointed out, are dual citizens. They have family ties to the country, and may have their own reasons for deciding to stay. Biden swore there was "no deadline" for our interest in getting those who want to get out successfully out, and promised to use what leverage exists to pressure the Taliban into facilitating their exit. Nobody in their right mind trusts the Taliban, and this may boil down to a question of how well they can police rogue groups within their own ranks. The Taliban is no longer an insurgent military force, they are now a national government. That transition is always tough for any revolutionary group to make, so there's no guarantee they'll be in any way successful at it. If any American citizens get killed in revenge over the next few weeks, Biden will likely pay a heavy political price (to state the obvious).
To use a common courtroom metaphor, the jury's still out on America's exit from Afghanistan. What we saw today was, essentially, Biden's closing argument to the jury of the American people. He forcefully made his case, he rebutted criticisms against his actions, and he made the larger case that ending the war was ultimately the right thing to do (and indeed should have happened years ago).
The Forever War has been over for a day now. It'll take many more days before that jury really does come back with a verdict. What it will be is anyone's guess, but Biden did the best job he could today to make his own case.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Nobody in their right mind trusts the Taliban, and this may boil down to a question of how well they can police rogue groups within their own ranks. The Taliban is no longer an insurgent military force, they are now a national government. That transition is always tough for any revolutionary group to make, so there's no guarantee they'll be in any way successful at it.
So true! However, the US has a keen interest in having the Taliban succeed. And, so, national interests collide and overlap. Not only because of the effort to get out any remaining Americans and Afghan allies who wish to leave but, because the US needs a functioning Taliban government now to work with to ensure that Afghanistan doesn't become a safe haven for terrorits again.
If any American citizens get killed in revenge over the next few weeks, Biden will likely pay a heavy political price (to state the obvious).
Indeed!
I would like to point out that declaring a war is "over" or "ended", is subjective.
If one were to limit ones definition of "war" to high intensity conflict, then it would be most accurate to say that indeed the war is over for America and her allies, but it continues for the Afghanis.
The most honest evaluation would be that with the withdrawal of troops the high intensity combat phase of the "forever war" has ended and will now continue on as a low intensity conflict (i.e. drone strikes, cruise missiles, occasional incursions by JSOC operators) for the foreseeable future.
No matter who is in charge, or the state of conflict, the Afghanis still have to live with the societal maladies of war.
So ask yourself, is it really over?
gt,
Yeah, it's pretty much over, especially if Biden is re-elected. Heh.
However, US engagement with Afghanistan in a diplomatic sense has really just begun. And, that is not to take away any of the great work American diplomats have achieved in Afghanistan over the course of the last couple of decades. In fact, all of that work will put the State Department in good stead, going forward.
I'm hoping that new meaning will be given to my most favourite Biden quote:
"The US leads best when it leads by the power of its
example and not just by the example of its power."
This new "diplomatic mission" is going to be very interesting to watch unfold ...
Caddy,
I hope you are not anywhere near Lake Tahoe ... just heard that all Americans have been evacuated due to wildfires!
goode trickle on [2]
Without predicting the future of Afghan politics, my understanding is that for now the war is over within the country as well. The Taliban won, and rules as much as anyone rules a country like that. So the war does not, in fact, "continue for the Afghans".
[4]
Dammit -- you mean Joe evacuated Americans from Lake Tahoe and left our Afghani allies behind?
Jesus, you'd think Joe would get the hang of this evacuation thing by now!;D
FYI I live roughly 75 miles east of Los Angeles and over a mile in the air. Thanks, Elizabeth.
Nobody trusts the Taliban.
Oh, so the Taliban is less trustworthy than, say, the United States? Ask the Kurdish allies that Trump screwed in Syria how trustworthy we are before you cast insults.
The Taliban have enormous incentive to "play nice." They need international support and a minimum of incoming cruise missles so I don't expect much in the way of atrocities (especially to Americans.)
I think you're right about that, Caddy ..
I worry about you, Caddy ... glad you are okey dokey.
a mile in the air? y'know, there's a number of ways to take that comment...
Caddy,
In honour of TS, how about we focus on our favourite songwriters this Sunday night ...
[11]
You mean I'd get to subject Weigantia to my all time favorite musician, Paul Simon?
To put my love in perspective...
Sure I was bummed that the Beatles broke up. But I was devastated when Simon and Garfunkel went their separate ways.
[10]
Yes. And I invite you to let your imagination run wild about MtnCaddy, high up in the mountains in the world capital of weed, Country-Cali -- woot!
EM-1
Does anybody know what constitutes long term success for the Taliban? Other than staying in power? As to terrorism, the Taliban practice it routinely. They ratchet it up and down.
@ts,
violence for political ends by individuals or non-state actors is called terrorism. violence for political ends by a state, especially within that state, is called policing.
JL
Biden's problem is he is boring (aka, normal). If this had happened on Trump's watch, we would have had an unrelated bombastic tweet that evening, some minor scandal the next day and an entirely new scandal on the third day that the media would have moved on to, relegating Afghanistan to old news. Biden, being normal and boring, does not have anything to supplant bad news so the media fixates on it and waxes philosophical until something big enough elsewhere comes up to divert the media's eyes...
As I listened to NPR in the car yesterday, all these stories came up about various groups in Afghanistan and how their lives would now be different/destroyed. Every time I had the same thought: Ya, that's bad, but evidently not bad enough to fight the Taliban. America was not the only ones who had 20 years to do something.
TS,
Does anybody know what constitutes long term success for the Taliban?
Of course. And, it's not just about staying in power.
Bashi,
America was not the only ones who had 20 years to do something.
You hit the nail on the head right there! I'm positive that this is what frustrated Biden so much about Afghanistan, from the top leadership on down.
Caddy,
You mean I'd get to subject Weigantia to my all time favorite musician, Paul Simon?
You could do that every Sunday night, ya know ...
This is blame-shifting, Biden's critics will say.
It is no more blame-shifting than blaming those unvaccinated right-wing science deniers and so-called "freedom fighters" who've suffered the consequences of their choice of refusing to vaccinate. We all suffer
Your freedumb to choose ain't "free"
It never has been
And likely never will be.
BashiBazouk
16
As I listened to NPR in the car yesterday, all these stories came up about various groups in Afghanistan and how their lives would now be different/destroyed. Every time I had the same thought: Ya, that's bad, but evidently not bad enough to fight the Taliban. America was not the only ones who had 20 years to do something.
Exactly right.