Fighting The Russian Army To A Draw
The Russian army has proven to be a lot less impressive than many (including myself, I must in all honesty admit) had previously thought. Ditto the Russian air force. A war of choice waged by an invader with what appeared to be overwhelming military superiority has just not played out as Vladimir Putin expected. They are bogged down, perhaps for good. Their advance has been halted almost everywhere in Ukraine. Today brought the news that Ukrainian forces are actually recapturing territory and pushing the Russians back. This is an astonishing turn of events. Could the war actually be at a turning point? It is likely too early to make such a declaration, but even the fact that there now exists the possibility of that being true gives both the Ukrainians and the rest of the free world hope.
Personally, I grew up in the Cold War, although I would qualify that by saying "the final waning decades of the Cold War." I never ducked-and-covered under my desk in drills which laughably attempted to teach how to survive a nuclear strike. But my school did have an air-raid siren audible throughout the neighborhood that was tested once a month. The intensity had ebbed, but the fears of the Red Army attacking and possibly even invading was a real one (no matter how farfetched it may now seem, at this historical distance). What I'm trying to say is that we all had a healthy respect for the Soviet armed forces. The whole world did; we weren't alone in that.
Of course, Afghanistan did lessen that respect a bit. But the Russians were still seen as a force to be reckoned with, even after the fall of the Soviet Union. They reportedly still have 900,000 soldiers in uniform, which is certainly nothing to sneer at. But after amassing close to 200,000 of them (estimates vary, from 150,000 up to around 190,000), they have not lived up to their reputation, to put it mildly.
There are already theories circulating for what went so wrong for the Russian forces. Perhaps some of them are true, but knowing which ones and to what degree is impossible to ascertain at this point. Perhaps the "kleptocracy" nature of the post-Soviet Russian state has weakened the forces from within. The Russian military has always had priority for fuel, which some have suggested has been a liquid asset (in both senses of the word) that is easily sold off for profit by officers who feel the need to supplement their salaries. And fuel isn't the only commodity reportedly sold off in such a fashion. Russian soldiers in Ukraine have reportedly been issued ready-to-eat meals that are dated from two decades ago. One American late-night comedian pointed out that this meant their meals are actually older than the soldiers themselves. The vehicles Russia has sent into the north of Ukraine are reportedly not well-maintained and subject to breaking down -- which could be another sign of money being diverted into someone's pocket. Even American military supply chains are occasionally subject to flawed or substandard equipment being substituted in order to boost profits for the companies providing them, and the problem being much more widespread in Russia isn't all that hard to imagine. When your country (and your military) is run by people who are stealing the country blind with every chance they get, why not get into that action yourself on a smaller scale?
One thing that seems to be contributing to the Russian forces' disarray is reportedly their lack of secure communications. Either communications equipment was not provided to the troops or such equipment is not working or being actively jammed by the Ukrainians, but what this would mean would be the individual units doing the fighting at the front would not be in direct contact with the rear of the army -- where the high-ranking officers usually station themselves. This would make it extremely hard (if not impossible) to get new orders to the front to change any of their tactics. In fact, the only way to do so would be for the generals themselves to travel to the frontline units to command them directly. To date, Ukraine claims to have killed six such high-ranking generals -- which is an astonishingly-high number in any modern combat. These officers will now need to be replaced, perhaps by soldiers with less experience, which doesn't exactly bode well. On the other hand, the generals themselves might have been part of the problem (continuing tactics which quite obviously aren't working), in which case replacing them might improve things for the Russian army.
The Russians are the invaders, which means that every mile they advance into Ukrainian territory becomes another mile needed in the supply chain for the frontline soldiers. So far, it seems they've been doing a terrible job of this basic aspect of warfare. That tank convoy north of Kyiv hasn't budged in weeks, and a big part of the problem appears to be providing them with basics like food, ammunition, and fuel. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian supply chain seems to be working quite well, funnelling weapons from NATO to their own frontline soldiers with relative ease. The Russians are currently too bogged down to attack these supply lines, although that could always change.
Further back in the supply chain, Russians may be running out of high-tech weapons. Militarily, it made no real sense for Russia to start using their new hypersonic cruise missiles, but they fired at least two of them a few days back. This has led to speculation that they're running out of their other precision guided weapons (smart bombs and conventional cruise missiles, mostly). I am more skeptical about this claim, mostly since I think (with nothing to really base this opinion on) the Russians just wanted to conduct a live-fire test of their new weapons to see how they worked on an actual battlefield. Either way, the Russians don't have all that many of the new hypersonic missiles either, so if they truly are running out of high-tech weapons then we may see a big return to older weapons -- "dumb" bombs deployed in carpet bombing. That would just add to the horrors of Putin's wholesale slaughter of civilians.
Casualties are beginning to mount for the Russian forces as well. The Ukrainians have done a stellar job with the weapons they do have, and have reportedly destroyed hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and even aircraft (both fixed-wing and helicopters). The number of Russian troop deaths is now estimated by American military observers as being 7,000 (perhaps even as high as 15,000). When you add in serious injuries as well as captured troops, the total casualty count for the Russian army could be as high as 30,000 to 40,000 troops. Even taking the low end of those estimates, most military analysts are now predicting that the Ukrainians have cut the force of the invading army by over 10 percent. That is incredibly impressive, given the size of both forces.
The real mystery to most observers has been how weak the Russian air force has been. They should have dominated the Ukrainian skies by now, but they have not. They have failed to offer close air support to their advancing ground troops and have been astonishingly ineffective all around. Is this a failure of one part of the Russian military to even be able to work with another branch? Another failure of adequate battlefield communications equipment? A failure of training (not enough experienced pilots)? The efficiency of the Stinger missiles the Ukrainians are using? Nobody really knows, but the fact remains that while the Russian ground forces have bogged down the Russian air force has spectacularly failed its basic mission.
Military analysts are starting to use the term "culmination" to describe the state of the war. Russian forces have stopped their advance, and may no longer be even capable of advancing in any meaningful way. They have lost so many soldiers (including high-ranking officers) that tactics and even strategies are falling apart. Resupplying these units even where they now sit is a problem. And now the Ukrainians are launching their own counteroffensives. This was reported today:
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, said on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had succeeded in pushing back Russian troops from part of a northwestern suburb but warned that the battle for his country could take weeks more, even months.
"Almost the whole of Irpin is in Ukrainian hands," the mayor said, naming the suburb where Ukrainian and Russian troops have been engaged in street fighting for weeks. The claim could not be independently verified. Russian troops were close to the eastern suburb of Brovary, he added, and a "big battle" was taking place behind the northern district of Lutezh.
These are unconfirmed reports, as of this writing. But if true, it means that in at least a few places around Kyiv, the Russian army is in retreat. That is an astonishing achievement for the outgunned Ukrainian forces. Reportedly, the troops Russia sent into the south (from Crimea) who are now besieging Mariupol were the best the Russian army could field, while the ones in the north sent in from Belarus were poorly-trained and inexperienced. So the possibility that they would be the first to be forced to retreat is at least plausible. Ukraine is also attempting counteroffensives in the south as well, so we'll have to see whether pushing the Russians back becomes more widespread in the next few days.
As I said, there may be multiple, overlapping reasons why the Russian armed forces are doing so badly. And no one should expect that they'll suddenly give up and go home -- Putin is almost certain to double down on his unrelenting shelling of civilians in multiple Ukrainian cities. If he gets truly desperate he could even decide to launch a small-scale nuclear weapon at one or more Ukrainian cities. The overall prognosis isn't rosy, by any stretch of the imagination. But even knowing all that, it does seem like the war may have hit a turning point. The brave Ukrainians may have fought the Russian army to a draw, and they may be on the verge of seizing the upper hand. This is a welcome development, and it is one that I (for one) didn't even contemplate, a few weeks ago when this war started. The next week or so could be crucial in seeing whether this is actually true or not.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I hate the use of the term “draw” in describing the on-going Russian aggression on Ukraine. A “draw” is only declared AFTER the match is finished. We do not say that a football game that has the teams tied 21 to 21 at the start of the 3rd quarter is a “draw”. War and it’s damaging effects on a people should not be quickly dismissed as one would a sporting event.
I think we in America have grown up believing that every country in the world had a military that was similar in size and preparedness as we do…and that just cannot be true! Of the countries that spend the most on their military, the US spends the most by far! In the list of the top 10 spenders, the US spends more in military spending than the next 9 countries…COMBINED!
We pump so much money into military spending, yet we still have a large number of our military that must rely on SNAP to help feed their families. If WE cannot make sure that our people are properly fed with our massive military bank account, should we really be shocked that Russian troops are not being fed?
Chris,
Today brought the news that Ukrainian forces are actually recapturing territory and pushing the Russians back.
In Ukrainian town, reality doesn’t match government boasts of victory over Russian forces
I have learned early on in this war to beward of propoganda from all corners, particularly when it's coming from Ukrainian officials who are boasting about successes against Russia.
Could the war actually be at a turning point? It is likely too early to make such a declaration, but even the fact that there now exists the possibility of that being true gives both the Ukrainians and the rest of the free world hope.
Probably not. At least, not if you think Ukraine can win a war with Russia.
Chris,
[The Russians] reportedly still have 900,000 soldiers in uniform, which is certainly nothing to sneer at. But after amassing close to 200,000 of them (estimates vary, from 150,000 up to around 190,000), they have not lived up to their reputation, to put it mildly.
Is this assessment based on Ukrainian officialdom or western media sources or from some Washington think tanks as they are getting most of their information from Ukrainian facebook posts!
Wow, based on this piece, it looks as though Russia is actually going to lose this war!
The overall prognosis isn't rosy, by any stretch of the imagination.
Actually, what the real prognosis is is UNKNOWN.
The next week or so could be crucial in seeing whether this is actually true or not
Oh, I think you may be quite right about that, Chris!
... continued, cause I messed up, as per ususal. :)
To me, that sounds bad for Ukraine.
I bring this perspective here because no one really knows what assessments are accurate on a day to day basis. But, there are certain fundamentals that should be taken into account when relying on information that is sketchy at best and should always be taken with more that a few spoonfuls of salt.
(NOTE: this should be read BEFORE my comment #8)
Here are some excerpts from William Bradley's latest piece which is a cautionary tale about relying on "assessments" from so-called experts and the western media who rely on Ukrainian facebook posts for most of the information they report, I have learned.
Heh.
Perhaps some of them are true, but knowing which ones and to what degree is impossible to ascertain at this point.
Perhaps not so hard to ascertain as you just spent the rest of your column listing all of the reasons Russia's military hasn't gotten the job done, hello?
Probably not. At least, not if you think Ukraine can win a war with Russia.
Elizabeth. The Ukrainians have already won this war. All they have to do is nothing more of what they've already proved that they can do, which is stop Russia cold.
It's just a matter of time before the sanctions make Russia boot Putin out the door.
War assessments aside, I still believe that the only way Ukraine gets out of this alive is through a negotiated political settlement with Russia.
I understand that Z is being pushed and pulled every which way but he has to make a decision about how to end this thing or lose completely the independence of Ukraine.
As for Mariupol, a city that Russia needs to take, I have learned and as quoted above, Z doesn't have to surrender - just declare it an "open city" as was done in WWII in order to save a city from complete destruction.
I understand that Z is being pushed and pulled every which way but he has to make a decision about how to end this thing or lose completely the independence of Ukraine.
C'mon, Elizabeth! Aren't you paying ANY attention to the facts on the ground?
C'mon, Elizabeth! Don't you remember how not well the Appeasement of Munich, 1938, turned out? Jesus, I'm starting to wonder about you...
Why on earth would Ukraine give ground now? They're in a position of relative strength, which means they set the terms of negotiation.
Joshua,
What are you basing that rosy picture on?
REALITY is that Putin fucked up and invaded the wrong country.
This is a yuge gift to NATO and the West because they've managed to unite against this threat to the 77-year peaceful and historically prosperous Pax Americana.
Enough with that failure of imagination crap!
Neither Biden nor Zelensky could stop the Ukrainian people from resisting invasion by their ancient foe.
All Ukraine has to do is what they've already done -- fight for their country!
Do you even read my comments? Then why do you post such ignorant things?
Your comments are based on wishful thinking and not much more, so ...
MtnCaddy,
Must you resort to insults in your attempts to enter into a discussion?
I've heard that truth is the first casualty of war.
[
MtnCaddy,
Must you resort to insults in your attempts to enter into a discussion?
No, no insults. It's just aggravating when you act like nobody here hasn't pointed out the error of your Munich, 1938 thinking.
[23]
Haha that's pretty funny for the guy that once again flubbed his chance to address Bashi's evisceration of OD.
It ain't the way I wanted it! I can handle things! I'm smart! Not like everybody says... like dumb... I'm smart and I want respect!
Fredo Corleone
GODFATHER Part 2
I'm not wasting time on you anymore, Fredo. You're boring.
MtnCaddy,
I posted quite a lot from William Bradley's latest piece. What do you disagree with?
Most media reports are not even accurately reporting what the Russian tactics and goals of this war are.
FPC
[108]
Sir, you are entitled to your own opinion. You are NOT entitled to your own FACTS.
Tip O'Neil
By ANY measure of REAL science, a fetus is a person....
No, you don't get to say "pre-born" instead of the scientific term "fetus."
Besides, even if it's not a religious hangup on your part why do you think the 40% of Americans who believe that abortion is wrong get to lord it over the 60% of us who disagree?
Don't tell me that you believe in minority rule just because you cannot convince the majority of Americans that you're right.
And, something else the media isn't reporting:
this is an unnecessary war that should have been prevented in the first place along lines that have been very well known for a very long time.
Why, that sounds downright Republican!
[28],
Off topic!
Why, that sounds downright Republican!
How so?
Beau explains why opposing Ketanji over a newfound concern over her LSAT score is straight up racism.
The person who'se been nominated will be the first Black woman, ever. Because of that a whole lot of folks have come out of the woodwork trying to find a reason for her to not be there, because it's still the United States.
...suffice it to say that there is literally nobody sitting on the Supreme Court that has her wide range of legal experience. Not a single person, period, full stop.
She graduated from Harvard Law -- she probably knows what she's doing!
[29]
this is an unnecessary war that should have been prevented in the first place along lines that have been very well known for a very long time.
Oh yeah? Care to explain how? Leave out the part about capitulating to Putin just because he wants Ukraine and the West to do so.
Another OT comment and you have left me hanging on that Republican charge. Oh, well ...
Care to explain how?
Already explained, in great detail.
[32]
Why, that sounds downright Republican!
How so?
Um, does the part about the nationwide Republican efforts to deny the vote ring any kind of bell, Elizabeth? Gurl, you sure ain't on your game lately. But I still love ya :P
This is getting us nowhere, MtnCaddy ... good night.
No you didn't explain how.
G'Nite
MC,
Besides, even if it's not a religious hangup on your part why do you think the 40% of Americans who believe that abortion is wrong get to lord it over the 60% of us who disagree?
Funny you should mention polls..
Over 80% of Americans support abortion restrictions.. This is documented fact..
The only point of contention amongst that 80+% is WHEN those restrictions should occur..
The so-called "viability line"..
And, since viability is based SOLELY on medical technology and, as we would all agree, medical technology is a FAST growing technology, it's easy to postulate that, in time (a SHORT time) a baby in the womb would be "viable" at 6 weeks...
A fetus is a baby that simply hasn't grown yet. Trying to dehumanize the fetus to make it's brutal killing easier to justify is understandable... But a fetus IS a life... This is scientific fact...
It's a moot point really. Because even if Jackson Brown is confirmed, abortion is STILL going the way of the dodo...
Beau explains why opposing Ketanji over a newfound concern over her LSAT score is straight up racism.
Did Beau support Biden's complete racist selection process???
Democrats don't get to complain about racism because the ENTIRE selection process of Jackson Brown was BLATANTLY and UNEQUIVOCALLY racist..
As to the subject of today's commentary...
I have a VERY difficult time believing all the reports from Ukraine that the Russian army is actually prosecuting the war THIS badly...
I can't help but feel we're seeing more propaganda and less actual facts in how things are going..
Liz,
this is an unnecessary war that should have been prevented in the first place along lines that have been very well known for a very long time.
I have to disagree with you here..
The ONLY way to have prevented this war was to force Ukraine to abide by Putin's wishes by denying Ukraine it's freedom of choice to join NATO..
Even then, I am not entirely convinced that Putin wouldn't have followed thru with the invasion..
Peace at any cost is not true peace.. It's slavery..
Liz,
Re: #8 & #9
Now THAT sounds a little more realistic..
Honestly, I don't know why it's so hard to get a FACT based picture on the ground..
To hear our media tell it, for Putin's Russia, oblivion is just right around the corner...
And that simply makes NO logical or rational sense..
So, what do the Battles of Yorktown, Waterloo, Gettysburg, and Midway have in common? They were the decisive and/or turning point battles in the American Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, the American Civil War, and the Pacific Theater of World War II.
None involved a big city. All involved places on maps that were important solely because of the of each particular conflict.
"Sokovia?? It's no where on the way to everywhere.."
-Anita Hill, AVENGERS AGE OF ULTRON
Russ,
We pump so much money into military spending, yet we still have a large number of our military that must rely on SNAP to help feed their families. If WE cannot make sure that our people are properly fed with our massive military bank account, should we really be shocked that Russian troops are not being fed?
I see the moral point you are trying to make with your comment.
But I must point out that the US military has absolutely NO PROBLEM keeping our troops fed. Especially during combat operations.. That's what MREs are for..
What you are talking about is keeping the soldier's FAMILIES fed... And I agree that more should be done so that soldiers don't have to have welfare for their families to survive..
On the other hand, I see the logical argument from the military/economic side of the issue.
It's only the lower ranks that are not paid well. And those ranks are, in economic terms, "unskilled labor" and their pay is commiserate with that designation...
Which is why, in the olden days, it was always smarter for young bucks to WAIT until they were financially secure before starting families..
The vast majority of hardships in people's lives can, more often than not, be traced back to stoopid decisions made.. That goes for civilian, military, race, gender, lifestyle... Whatever kind of hardship you can name..
Not always, to be sure.. But most times you'll find this to be factually accurate..
The world or life doesn't owe ANYONE a living.. It must be earned...
JL,
Being able to breathe and survive outside the womb is not so intricate a concept. It's been the dividing line for personhood since before abortion was legal.
Except it has not been a STATIONARY dividing line, has it??
It's been moving inexorably towards sooner and sooner in the gestation period..
I think now it's at 22 weeks..
So there will come a time, sooner rather than later, where it might be as little as 6 weeks..
What will that do to your abortion support??
Will you change your views based on the SCIENCE??
Or keep them where they are at right now based on the political agenda??
THAT is the question..
This has never been about a woman's right to choose.. The woman DOES have the right to choose..
She can CHOOSE to participate in activity that might create a child..
Once she makes that CHOICE she should be bound by the consequences of that choice.. A grave threat to her own life or the life of the gestating child should be the only exceptions..
Except it has not been a STATIONARY dividing line, has it??
It's been moving inexorably towards sooner and sooner in the gestation period..
I think now it's at 22 weeks..
So there will come a time, sooner rather than later, where it might be as little as 6 weeks..
Which is why over 80% of Americans support abortion restrictions at SOME point in the baby's gestation period..
I would also be very interested to hear your thoughts on the majority of Democrats who want to #SHOUTOUT their abortions and #CELEBRATE their baby killing..
Do you think such attitudes HELP or HURT the Democrat Party??
Enquiring minds want to know.. :D
Michale,
NATO doesn't want Ukraine to join it!!!
MtnCaddy,
Oh yeah? Care to explain how? Leave out the part about capitulating to Putin just because he wants Ukraine and the West to do so.
I'm surprised that geopolitical affairs is so difficult to understand.
Michale,
Even then, I am not entirely convinced that Putin wouldn't have followed thru with the invasion..
Yeah, well ... unfortunately, Biden/NATO/Z made darn sure we would never find out about that, didn't they? It's really too bad that this threesome took Ukrainian membership in NATO off the table. ;)
Michale,
The ONLY way to have prevented this war was to force Ukraine to abide by Putin's wishes by denying Ukraine it's freedom of choice to join NATO..
NATO has freedom of choice, too and, they have exercised it by not allowing Ukraine to join its membership.
And, that is a very logical choice that makes a lot of sense, even if NATO can't bring themselves to admit it publically.
Sorry about that.
What is NDGA?
Joshua,
Why on earth would Ukraine give ground now? They're in a position of relative strength, which means they set the terms of negotiation.
What are the terms for negotiation set by Ukraine?
Joshua,
I understand that Z is ready to set Ukraine's NATO aspirations aside so, there's that.
I also believe Z is ready to put forward that Ukraine will have neutral status with security guarantees that are iron clad and enforced by the US, UK and others. So, there's that on top of that.
Have you heard anything furthur about Ukraine's terms?
Of course, in return, Russia would have to abide by a ceasefire and withdraw troops to where they were before February 24th.
The contested regions in the east are then up for discussion, I would asssume. And, that would obviously include Mariupol.
Jackson Brown is the FIRST black woman to serve on the Supreme Court...
"Yea!!! Awesome!!! That's totally great!!"
-Racists...
"Yea?? So???"
-Non Racists...
OK That came out wrong..
Allow me to rephrase..
Jackson Brown is the FIRST black woman to serve on the Supreme Court...
"Yea!!! Awesome!!! That's totally great!!"
-People Who Only Care About Race
"Yea?? So???"
-People Who Are Colorblind With Regards To Race
Liz,
Yeah, well ... unfortunately, Biden/NATO/Z made darn sure we would never find out about that, didn't they? It's really too bad that this threesome took Ukrainian membership in NATO off the table. ;)
NATO membership is baked into the Ukraine Constitution..
It will not be given up that easily...
What is NDGA?
No Dogs Get Alpo
[41]
Democrats don't get to complain about racism because the ENTIRE selection process of Jackson Brown was BLATANTLY and UNEQUIVOCALLY racist..
Oh, I get it. A black woman has never served on the Supreme Court. So Joe Biden doing something about that is racist? *smh*
[53]
I'm surprised that geopolitical affairs is so difficult to understand.
Then by all means Lizsplain it to us!
Weigantians keep pointing out the problems with your naive a bad peace is better than no peace pacifism but you post as though you've ignored them all.
I'm here to learn and be persuaded when I'm wrong. So please, Elizabeth, show me the way. I don't think you can.
Oh, I get it. A black woman has never served on the Supreme Court. So Joe Biden doing something about that is racist? *smh*
Joe Biden specifically STATED for the record that he would "ONLY CONSIDER a black woman if he is allowed to make a SCOTUS nomination"...
That is the VERY DEFINITION of racist..
Imagine how ya'all would have shat yer pants if President Trump had stated, "I will ONLY consider a white man for a SCOTUS nomination"
Ya'all would have had a major coronary over such a claim of racist intent..
Russ,
Loved the Gilligan's Island reference.. :D
But this "Let's Fly" crap is a poor POOR substitute for "ENGAGE"....
MC,
There is simply NO POSSIBLE way to spin away the simple fact that Joe Biden's statement to ONLY CONSIDER a black woman for the SCOTUS nomination is blatantly and unequivocally racist..
Biden is PLAINLY stating for the record that he is using RACE as the very first criteria for selecting his nominee..
That is as RACIST as it could POSSIBLY get, my friend..
The fact that he doubles down and uses sexism as his very NEXT criteria simply shows how far gone the Democrat Party is..
Then by all means Lizsplain it to us!
OK All hostility aside, THAT was pretty funny.. :D
Having been on the receiving end of MUCH Liz'splainin' I appreciate the humor.. :D
That is the VERY DEFINITION of racist..
no, it isn't. i guess that makes the dictionary racist?
@m,
you should read john mcwhorter's treatises on racism. he's highly independent and enough against the grain of 'woke' society that i think you'd enjoy it.
JL
JL,
no, it isn't. i guess that makes the dictionary racist?
We can disregard the "new" definition of racism because it's SOLELY based on a political agenda, not on fact.
The pre-Democrat-based definition of racism is the only valid definition..
It's like how people change the definition of "trolling" to make whatever attack they make "work"..
You can "PROVE" any argument as "valid" if you are allowed to change definitions and reality..
Cordless Hole Puncher
I'll stick with the VALID definition of racism..
The one that Dr Martin Luther King lived by and died for..
Making a selection or expressing a preference based on race is racism..
Pure and simple..
JL Have you finished Season 4 of ST Discovery???
[74]
OK All hostility aside, THAT was pretty funny.. :D
Having been on the receiving end of MUCH Liz'splainin' I appreciate the humor.. :D
Naw, no hostility, Dawg. So what if we disagree? And since all comedy has its roots in tragedy I just gotta laugh sometimes.
Having said that, clearly
I have gotten crabby with Elizabeth over her lack of Liz'splainin' and I need to chill out.
Oh well, she'll be coming 'round the mountain when she comes...
And not a moment before.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/03/24/ketanji_brown_jackson_failed_to_provide_clarity_during_confirmation_hearings_147377.html
Looks like Jackson Brown is a wash out.. :D
According to what they are saying over at Slate, all GOP are going to vote NO and maybe even a couple of DEMs are NO VOTES...
Glorious!! :D
That's what happens when you use a racist criteria to make a SCOTUS selection..
Oops.. That wasn't supposed to be ALL in bold..
My bust...
As promised, I finished S4 of Discovery...
William Shatner must be ecstatic..
STAR TREK 5 is no longer the WORST TREK EVER...
Banal... Insulting...
There was actually a LINE from Culbert..
"We really must analyze these feelings" :^/
Some parts where danger was high and they stopped the action to congratulate everyone on what a great job they are doing..
It was like Fred Kwan in GALAXY QUEST...
"You guys did great.. Come on in here.. Group hug.."
It was JUST LIKE THAT...
Utterly and completely ridiculous... Discovery needs to be de-commissioned as a starship and then re-tasked as a therapy ship where people go to get in touch with their feminine/peace-nik/hippy feelings...
This wasn't Star Trek.. It was psychedelic acid trip inside the psyche of a Left Wing progressive and their feelings...
I look forward to it's utter demise...
And, since viability is based SOLELY on medical technology and, as we would all agree, medical technology is a FAST growing technology, it's easy to postulate that, in time (a SHORT time) a baby in the womb would be "viable" at 6 weeks...
Viability is NOT based SOLELY on medical technology and while it might be easy for you to postulate that a fetus could be “viable” at 6 weeks; it would be wrong for you to postulate such BS.
Fetal viability is the ability of a fetus to survive outside the uterus. Fetal viability is generally considered to begin at 24 weeks gestational age, since at this point in the pregnancy, most infants survive a preterm birth.
MtnCaddy and Friends,
Lizsplaining 101 - the Russian War in Ukraine
Okay, I’m going to explain why I think this war could have and certainly should have been avoided and who I think is to blame for inviting the start of it.
But, first, to be clear and for the record, Putin and Russia are solely responsible for starting this ridiculously unnecessary and unjustified war against Ukraine, for the death of civilians and for committing obvious war crimes about which the ICC is investigating and rightly so. Such a declaration, here in Weigantia and among friends, should go without saying.
Now, you will recall that when the Berlin wall fell and the disintegration of the USSR began, NATO, which was set up to counter the Soviet Union, began “assessing” that it would be a good idea to expand to ensure the continuing security of Europe.
For one brief shining moment, the Yeltsin government in Moscow entertained the idea of Russia joining this strategic security arrangement, in some form or fashion. I even recall advocating for the same during the very early nineties when NATO began in earnest to consider expanding its security zone across Europe and, indeed, its sphere of influence. However, old ideas and patterns die hard sometimes and the Russians didn’t pursue joining NATO.
As Russia embarked on its fledgling democracy, there were many Russians who felt a distinct sense of humiliation in the aftermath of the break-up of the Soviet Union. It was, after all, quite a shock to the system. And, in this environment when Russia was down and out and trying to emerge from a yolk of totalitarianism and economic hardship, NATO decides that this would be an opportune time to expand and, eventually, right up to Russia’s border.
For thirty years, Russia has declared that Ukraine is a red line for them in terms of NATO expansion. Why would NATO wish to welcome Ukraine into the fold and have NATO forces just hundreds of miles from Moscow? Why, indeed. I would argue that Ukraine provides a security buffer for both Russia and NATO and space for continuing dialogue on the security concerns of both parties, especially given the nature of nuclear arms control negotiations that have been ongoing for decades, not to mention the general dynamics of the Cold War.
So, knowing and understanding the real and ultimately manageable security concerns of Russia in the midst of NATO expansion up to its border, the US and NATO open the door to the possibility of Ukraine membership, leaving NATO's muscular force structure and weaponry, thanks to the US, right at Russia’s doorstep, only a few hundred miles from the heart of Moscow. Ukraine, in a move that helped to seal its current fate, enshrined in its constitution an aspirational intent to become a NATO member and all that is entailed with entering into such a security arrangement.
Despite clear and consistent messaging from the Kremlin - over the course of the last thirty years, no less - the West refused to take Russia's security concerns seriously and Putin moved to recapture Crimea. Studying the history of this parcel of land, by the way, is instructive but, I will leave that complicated story to others.
Later, with Ukraine, the US and NATO still stubbornly clinging to the notion that their public stance remain open to Ukrainian membership (“sovereign nations have the right to choose their alliances”, never mind the fact that NATO also has the right to choose its members and there was no logical reason nor realistic chance that Ukraine would ever actually be admitted) Putin moves to control the separatist regions of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, thus creating facts on the ground to counter the real and imagined NATO threat.
Fast forward to February 2022 and the amassing of Russian troops along its western border with Ukraine and in Belarus. And, still, Ukraine and the US and NATO refuse to accept reality on the ground or even discuss the real and manageable security concerns of Russia that have led to this troop build-up.
In fact, Biden, in a historically stubborn and obtuse move, publically declares that the idea of Ukrainian membership in NATO is sacrosanct and, as such, is off the negotiating table to diffuse the potential crisis. Which, of course, is all about NATO expansion into Ukraine. Adding fuel to the flames would be an apt phrase to describe this wholly irresponsible behavior on the part of an American president, NATO and Ukraine, who should all know better.
And, here we are.
@m,
I've never seen a single episode of discovery. Should I?
Apparently, not. :)
Chechen Leader Says His Forces Liberated Mariupol City Hall
And, the city is ... grateful, er ... the Grateful Dead.
Morning Dew
Liz,
What I do not understand about your stance that Ukraine should be forced to abide by Russia’s demand that they not join NATO is this: why shouldn’t Putin be expected to sweeten the deal to make it benefit Ukrainians more to NOT join NATO than he has?
Yes, Ukraine served as buffer between Russia and NATO, but was that beneficial for Ukrainians? Putin installed corrupt leaders to run Ukraine to follow his wishes and place Russian interests above all else. The Ukrainians got sick of that and voted Putin’s puppets out of power! The corruption that Putin infused the Ukrainian government with was sought out and removed like a surgeon cutting out a cancerous tumor!
Russia could have paid the gas tax that the Ukrainian government requires anyone using their pipelines to the Black Sea to pay… but Putin decided just to take it for Russia. The people in Crimea could have benefitted immensely from the money that gas tax would have brought the area… but Putin would not take home as much profit if they did the right thing…so cry me a River, Crimea!
If Russia was not constantly giving the people of Ukraine a reason to want to join NATO, this would not be an issue. But that is on RUSSIA!
Russ,
why shouldn’t Putin be expected to sweeten the deal to make it benefit Ukrainians more to NOT join NATO than he has?
Yes, my thoughts, exactly.
And, that could very well have happened long before this war. But, the US (and Biden) and NATO made sure that wouldn't happen by taking NATO membership off the table - for thirty years!