Inflation's Political Deadweight
There are two major political storms on the horizon that will both break long before the midterm congressional elections, but as it looks now there is one overriding issue in domestic politics that will likely be one of the core issues in the race no matter what. Yes, it's time once again to dust off the 30-year old quip from James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid." This time around, it could be narrowed to: "It's the inflation, stupid."
Before we get to that, though, let's touch upon the two major issues aren't yet on most voters' radars. Keen political observers and base Democrats who long for accountability are both anxiously awaiting the start of public hearings for the House Select January 6th Committee. They're about to publicly lay out their narrative of the events leading up to that fateful day, as well as a microscopic view of the day itself and the immediate aftermath. This is going to be a compelling political story -- much of it new and unrevealed -- and it has the potential to focus the American electorate on the complicity of certain Republicans back then as well as the party almost as a whole since then to dodge the hard reality of what happened. Which could be a motivating force this November. Or maybe not -- many people at this point might like to just put the entire issue behind them, so even after dramatic revelations it is an open question whether the subject will be on the minds of many when they enter the voting booth.
The second major issue will appear in June, when the Supreme Court rules on an abortion case. They could either strongly uphold Roe v. Wade, entirely overturn Roe, or leave it technically intact while functionally gutting it of all meaning. My money is on the third of those options, personally. Almost no one expects them to uphold Roe, but those who want to see Roe completely tossed out may be in for a disappointment. Because it would be politically easier for the court to leave the decision intact while removing all protections for abortion and for women in much the same way they have eviscerated the Voting Rights Act -- carving major chunks out of the law or simply rewriting it from scratch (so much for denouncements of "legislating from the bench," eh?). They can then piously state that the law still remains on the books while ensuring that it actually doesn't do what it used to do at all. Gutting Roe in a similar fashion would achieve the same political goal (and if you don't think John Roberts considers such things, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you). They could then say: "But we didn't overturn Roe v. Wade," while leaving it legally meaningless in all the red states.
No matter how Roe is dismantled, though, it is going to cause a firestorm of political blowback. There are a whole lot of young women (and, to be fair, young men) out there who don't follow politics at all who are going to be shocked to learn that abortion is no longer a guaranteed right everywhere in America. There are going to be a lot of older women who have fought for decades to preserve the right who will be absolutely incensed that a conservative court tossed all their hard-fought victories out the window. And that is going to lead to a surge in enthusiasm for the Democratic Party, most likely. But again, other than those who pay close attention to politics, few now see this coming.
Inflation, on the other hand, is something seen by everyone. Not just "seen," but experienced, on a daily basis. Prices are up. And they keep going up, with no apparent end in sight. The official inflation rate hit 8.5 percent last month (measured as an increase over the same month last year). And people's impressions about the economy are becoming set in their minds. In politics, even a sharp uptick in the economy doesn't do the party in power any good if it happens too close to an election -- and "too close" is generally understood to be "within three months." So people's attitudes are going to have solidified by the beginning of August. Which really isn't that far away. There is a very small window when any improvement will help Democrats, but so far the numbers keep going in the wrong direction.
That's the bad news. But the news isn't universally bad. The March numbers were especially bad due to one big factor: the price of gas. When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the price of gas here spiked a whopping 80 cents per gallon within a period of about three weeks -- a breathtaking hit on the economy at large, and everyone's wallets and pocketbooks in specific. But since that high point, the price has come back down by over 25 cents per gallon, and is likely going to continue falling, even as the war rages on. The national average stood at over $4.30 a gallon at the peak, but it has now fallen below $4.10, and will likely continue to fall for weeks. The price of crude oil spiked right at the start of the war (which drove the gasoline price spike) but since then has completely recovered -- the price of a barrel of oil today is almost exactly where it was before Putin invaded. Of course, you can see the disparity here, since the price at the pump for gas has not mirrored this reduction in crude prices, but there's a fancy economy model that explains this: the "rocket/feather" concept. Gas prices rocket up, but then slowly come down like a feather floating on air. This is a rather imaginative and lyrical way of saying: "We're all being screwed over by the oil companies" (for those not well-versed in poetic economic metaphors).
But eventually that feather will come down, albeit more slowly than we'd all like to see. It already has begun descending and it has a lot further to go to reach parity with the price of oil. Added in the mix here are the actions President Joe Biden has been taking -- the unprecedented release of a million gallons per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for six straight months, as well as today's announcement that the EPA will relax pollution requirements for this summer so higher-ethanol blends can be sold. Also, the oil companies are beginning to feel some heat from both the public and the politicians, and the last thing they want is for everyone to be pointing the finger at them, so they might squelch their greed in reaction, which could show up as soon as next month's numbers. All of these could be contributing factors to falling prices at the pump.
There was actually some good news in the March inflation report, although you had to dig to see it. Used vehicles, which (along with energy prices) have been a major driver of inflation since last summer, finally went down in a big way last month. Taken together with falling gas prices, this could mean that March was "the cruellest month" (apologies to T.S. Eliot, of course). Price increases for everything except food and energy are already falling, in fact. There was still a small increase in March, but a much smaller increase than in the previous months (this rate has been falling for two months, in fact).
Some economists are already predicting that the March inflation number could have reached "peak inflation." Used vehicle prices falling, gas prices dropping, and supply chain problems receding all add in to their calculations, as does the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates (which should cool the economy as a whole, which should help fight inflation). Of course, the experts could be wrong -- they often are. In fact, there is such a wide range of economic expert opinion out there at any given moment that this is pretty much guaranteed to be true no matter what happens -- some experts will be proven right and some will be proven wrong. It's not even "an art more than a science," it is in fact trying to predict the future -- or "metaphysics versus physical reality."
Nobody really knows what the future will bring, of course. Oil's price per barrel may go back up again due to changing conditions in the Ukraine invasion or any other factor. Used car prices could also increase rather than continue to decrease. Nobody really knows.
But while the overall number from March was sobering indeed, it's still only March. If inflation numbers do start to calm down then Biden and his Democrats can brag that they've "turned the corner" and things are moving in the right direction again (due to their efforts). Republicans using the economy as a bludgeon won't be as effective if the public does believe things are getting better, for obvious reasons.
We'll never know where the economy would be right now if Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine. But it looks like March was when the economy shuddered, then took the new geopolitical reality in step and (hopefully) moved on. If that turns out to be true, then it will all be a fading blip in the rearview mirror, come November. But, as I began with, the window for this to happen is closing rather fast. If the inflation numbers don't dramatically improve by the start of the summer, then Democrats might be toast in the midterms no matter what else happens in the meantime. But if things do turn around and people can feel the relief in their own daily lives, then they might still have a chance at the old "don't change horses in midstream" campaign idea. But whether it is the dominant issue this fall or just a background thing that seems to be fading, it could indeed be another "it's the economy, stupid" election.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
One ongoing economic issue that I think could have weight at the polls is the price of insulin. If Democrats could be diligent about saying, "My opponent voted against capping the price of insulin because he thinks that people who have diabetes should simply die if they can't pay top dollar," that might change a few votes. Red states have a lot of overweight people, and a fairly large percentage of voters, I would guess, at least know someone who is diabetic and needs insulin. When it comes to voting, visceral responses matter, and you should be able to call up a visceral response by painting the Republicans (accurately) as people who just want your friend or relative to pay up or die.
I take this entire column with a boulder of salt.
If Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump proved only one thing it's that the old rules of politics don't all apply as they did before.
This example jumped off from the page at me,
In politics, even a sharp uptick in the economy doesn't do the party in power any good if it happens too close to an election -- and "too close" is generally understood to be "within three months."
The war and NATO, Covid, inflation and job/wage growth, the J6 Committee public hearings, indictments and convictions by DOJ...
And whether dumb fuck Democrats once again tack to the right in November -- or whether they prove to be a true alternative to the cult of economic failure that Republicans offer.
MSM cannot help but replay their tired political memes.
But I don't think we're in Kansas anymore, Toto. Things are going to get wild.
[4]
[5]
Dude, for the record we are in complete agreement about the problem. And in the couple-three years I've been hanging out in Weigantia I cannot recall even once anyone arguing otherwise. Why do you keep belaboring the point? Do you feel that defining the problem accurately somehow makes OD the solution? I'm sincerely curious about why you do this.
Also, I don't automatically scroll through you because I don't want to miss it when you lay your comedic talents upon us.
[1]
Dems should keep trying to pass Insulin legislation and relentlessly hammer the Repugs over it.
Even the BIRDS are shitting on Biden!! :D
POOTUS Bird POOPS on Joe Biden during infrastructure speech today in Iowa as president trolled for ‘talking ‘shit’ on Twitter
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5111480/bird-poops-joe-biden-during-infrastructure-speech-today-iowa/
From Previous...
Russ,
Are you STILL banging on that dead horse about it not really being Hunter Biden's laptop??
It's conclusive, dood... Even Democrat Water Carriers have confirmed it's Hunter Biden..
Give it a rest...
Yer boys are going down.. :D
MC,
Yer track record on predictions is pretty bad.. :D
Anyone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together knows Democrats are going to get creamed in November..
The FACTS are all there...
But there are none so blind as those who will not see... :D
Looks like we have a broad range of discussion topics today..
Abortion...
6 Jan Kangaroo Committee...
Democrats getting creamed in November...
Should keep me busy today.. :D
And now for a bit of comic interlude..
http://mfccfl.us/believe.jpg
:D
Interesting note..
This was the biggest jump in inflation since ANOTHER Democrat, Carter, ruined this country...
What *IS* it about Democrats that they simply cannot govern???
No discussion of 2022 would be complete without discussing the election fraud that took place in 2020...
It's funny how Democrats bought ENTIRE election boards in Red Counties....
RED Counties that went Blue in 2020....
What a coinky-dink, eh?? :^/
One only has to look at the gloom and doom of election night 2020 here in Weigantia to know that the 2020 election was rigged in favor of Biden..
Zuck is running scared..
Of course Zuck won't be repeating his purchase of entire Election Boards in 2022...
Because a plethora of states has OUTLAWED the practice..
Let's see how Democrats ACTUALLY fare in a FAIR election, eh??
I am betting that when the election is actually FAIR and LEGAL and above board, Democrats get trounced...
Oklahoma Gov. Stitt signs near-total abortion ban into law
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/oklahoma-gov-stitt-signs-near-total-abortion-ban-into-law
No more baby killing in Oklahoma...
Too bad Democrat states are still enacting Casey Anthony laws...
If only Democrats had not fought the plan to put more MTA cops in New York Subways..
Brooklyn shooting: AOC, other New York Democrats slammed 2019 proposal to put more MTA cops in NYC subways
The lawmakers said the plan impacted people living in poverty
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/brooklyn-shooting-aoc-other-new-york-lawmakers-slammed-2019-proposal-more-mta-cops-nyc-subways
Perhaps those people shot in the Subway yesterday morning would be all right today.. :^/
What IS it about Democrats that they are so pro-criminal??
Bring back Broken Windows Policing and Stop & Frisk.. It would prevent or help prevent gun violence like the Brooklyn Subway Shooting..
Before we were talking about how Democrats (you KNOW who you are) change definitions and meanings and "facts" to fit their agenda.
This is in the form of an email, so it might be a bit long..
On the plus side, there are no copyright issues, as it is a personal email..
It's hilarious to hear Democrats go on and on about "WOMAN'S RIGHTS" yet their agenda doesn't ALLOW them to even define what a WOMAN is!!!
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Leave it to the Democrats to paint themselves into such a corner!!
They are hysterical about "womans rights" but they can't even define what a woman is!!! :D
Women are shooting themselves in the foot by ignoring all the progress in favor of Democrat groupthink... :^/
First Texas bus drops off migrants blocks from US Capitol in Washington, DC
The buses are part of Gov. Greg Abbott's plan to counter the Biden administration's approach to illegal immigration
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-migrant-bus-arrives-washington-d-c
Promise kept!!!
Stick it, Biden!!! :D
Do the math
x = \frac{ { - b \pm \sqrt {b^2 - 4ac} } } { {2a} }
y = {-b +- sqrt(b^2 – 4ac)} over {2a}
z =(-b +- sqrt(b^2 – 4ac))/(2a)
= (-b - SQRT(b^2 - 4*a*c) / (2 * a)
["Equal", "x", [
"Divide",
["PlusMinus", ["Negate", "b"], ["Sqrt", ["Minus", ["Power", "b", 2], ["Multiply", 4, "a", "c"]]]],
["Multiplpy", 2, "a"]
= (-b - SQRT(b^2 - 4*a*c) / (2 * a)
= MALARKEY
@m,
LOL! Now calculate pie
JL
3.1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510 5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 8214808651 3282306647 0938446095 5058223172 5359408128 4811174502 8410270193 8521105559 6446229489 5493038196 4428810975 6659334461 2847564823 3786783165 2712019091 4564856692 3460348610 4543266482 1339360726 0249141273 7245870066 0631558817 4881520920 9628292540 9171536436 7892590360 0113305305 4882046652 1384146951 9415116094 3305727036 5759591953 0921861173 8193261179 3105118548 0744623799 6274956735 1885752724 8912279381 8301194912 9833673362 4406566430 8602139494 6395224737 1907021798 6094370277 0539217176 2931767523 8467481846 7669405132 0005681271 4526356082 7785771342 7577896091 7363717872 1468440901 2249534301 4654958537 1050792279 6892589235 4201995611 2129021960 8640344181 5981362977 4771309960 5187072113 4999999837 2978049951 0597317328 1609631859 5024459455 3469083026 4252230825 3344685035 2619311881 7101000313 7838752886 5875332083 8142061717 7669147303 5982534904 2875546873 1159562863 8823537875 9375195778 1857780532 1712268066 1300192787 6611195909 2164201989
Computer, this is a Class A compulsory directive. Compute to the last digit the value of pi.
~Spock (the wolf in the fold)
"Police say the suspect is a male Black. Damn. Damn. Damn."
-MSNBC Pundit Touré Neblett
When yer a hammer.. Everything looks like a nail..
When yer a racist.... :^/
"Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil."
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Hear that, Democrats??
Only those with an evil agenda changes the definitions of things to fit their agenda...
Why Democrats in general and California Democrats in particular really really suck..
Democrats!! :( What have you done to my hometown state!!! :(
From Democrats in California to Democrats in New York..
All Democrats know how to do is destroy.... :^/
The afore comments pertain to the mid-terms and why Democrats are going to get creamed..
Therefore, it's on topic to the commentary...
Just so yuus know...
[25]
Kewell! And because we are talking about Pi(e) in this case the boldification is entirely acceptable.
Copying it for me records.
Kewell! And because we are talking about Pi(e) in this case the boldification is entirely acceptable.
Copying it for me records.
52 decimal points. That's the largest text-based PI I could find.. :D
If they REALLY want to save New York City....
Beyond the people arming themselves and taking matters into their own hands the ONLY way to save New York City is...??? You guessed it..
Stop & Frisk and Broken Windows Policing..
NYC doesn't need "saving" - this shooter came from Wisconsin. So why don't they send all those reformers to Milwaukee?
NYC doesn't need "saving" -
Really???
You know there was a mass shooting mere hours after the Subway shooting.. 3 people killed..
this shooter came from Wisconsin.
And ended up in New York City because that's where violent gun crime is acceptable and tolerated.. :^/
Funny how it's all DEMOCRAT towns that are 3rd world shitholes for gun violence, eh? :^/
Like I said..
Only 2 things will save NYC...
Armed citizens taking matters into their OWN hands..
Or Stop&Frisk and Broken Windows Policing..
Anything else and NYC will continue to be a Democrat run 3rd world shithole..
NJ Gov. Murphy distances himself from 2nd graders learning gender identity, calls for age-appropriate content
NJ governor walks back defense of second-grade gender education
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nj-gov-murphy-reacts-2nd-graders-learning-gender-identity-age-appropriate-content
So now NJ Dem Gov walks back his pro-groomer comments and now agrees with Governor DeSantis about age appropriate education...
Durham probe: Judge denies Sussmann motion to dismiss case; trial to begin next month
The trial for former Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussman is set to begin on May 16
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-probe-judge-denies-sussmann-motion-to-dismiss-case-trial-to-begin-next-month
Oh!! WHAT FUN WE'LL HAVE!!! :D
20 bucks says Sussman dies by suicide before trial.. Lead poisoning..
2 shots to the back of the head...
What a tic!!!
This whole commentary is about how bad inflation has gotten and how bad it will be for Democrats in November..
But!! But!!! But!!!!
Inflation is "TRANSITORY"!!! It won't be bad at all!!!
Biden and the Democrats SAID SO!!!!
What the hell!!?????
Only 2 things will save NYC...
Armed citizens taking matters into their OWN hands..
Or Stop&Frisk and Broken Windows Policing..
Anything else and NYC will continue to be a Democrat run 3rd world shithole..
That's moronic. Statistically New York City is way, way down the list on all crime categories, violent and property...