Trump Loses First Big One
Donald Trump likes to see himself as a kingmaker in the world of Republican politics. He's got a case to make -- candidates who gain his endorsement can indeed see a surge in support and even go on to win close races -- but he's also nowhere near as powerful as he'd like everyone to think. That was evident in last night's big loss for his chosen candidate in the Nebraska governor's race. Trump endorsed early, he actually rallied in the state for his anointee, and the guy still lost. Trump is facing a few other prominent losses in the weeks to come as well, in both Idaho and Georgia at the very least.
A week ago I wrote an introductory column to this year's primaries which specifically dealt with the relative importance of Trump-backed candidates losing. So I will attempt to view last night's contest through that lens, and answer the questions the article posed.
How red a state is it?
Very red. Stoplight red. Fire engine red.
In Nebraska, barring some sort of unforeseen political earthquake, the winner of the Republican primary is going to become the winner in November. Jim Pillen, the winner last night, can comfortably start measuring the governor's office for new drapes.
Winning the primary in red states is not the same thing as winning in purple or even blue states, since the campaign is now essentially over -- the Democratic candidate isn't going to have a chance.
Will there be a strong third-party candidate in November?
Probably not.
This isn't a high-profile enough race for a strong third-party bid. Also, this was an open seat -- the incumbent was term-limited out. Charles Herbster, the Trump candidate who lost, has no previous experience in politics, so he has no built-in base of voters who already support him. Jim Pillen is going to skate to victory in the fall, facing only the Democratic candidate.
MAGA v. MAGA, or MAGA v. Establishment?
This one is interesting, because it was actually both. It was really a three-way race between what passes for a moderate Republican candidate in Nebraska (Brett Lindstrom), a Trump-endorsed candidate (Herbster), and a candidate who wasn't endorsed by Trump (Pillen) who did have the endorsement of the sitting governor and much of the state's Republican establishment -- but who also tried to go full MAGA during the campaign. So a mixed verdict.
Lindstrom was seen as having a good chance of winning last night's race, but only wound up with 26 percent of the vote. Herbster won 30 percent to Pillen's 34 percent. One other candidate pulled in 6 percent, but the rest were below 2 percent. All in all, a pretty balanced three-way race, in which the winner was establishment-backed but still campaigned in a very MAGA way.
So you can't really say "Trumpism lost last night," because Pillen got pretty MAGA in order to boost his chances of winning. Or maybe the conclusion should be a strong establishment candidate can beat even a Trump-endorsed candidate if he woos the Trump voters successfully enough? It's hard to say, really.
How many viable candidates are there?
As already stated, three.
The top three candidates split roughly 90 percent of the vote. And they split it fairly evenly -- the winner only won by less than four points (as of this writing, the final percentages may slightly vary in the tenths column).
It is interesting, just hypothetically, to wonder what the race would have looked like if it had been just Pillen v. Herbster or Lindstrom v. Herbster, but this wasn't that clear-cut a contest. Still, it was a simpler one than one with four or even five plausible contenders.
How late in the race did Trump jump in?
Not very.
Trump endorsed Herbster six months ago, even though Governor Pete Ricketts pushed him to stay out of the race. And, as noted, Ricketts then endorsed Pillen.
An endorsement in October of the year before the primary is early. In no way did Trump jump into the race at the last minute in order to boost his won/lost stats. So Trump was all-in for Herbster from the start -- which makes it more difficult for him to brush aside the loss.
What boost did Trump's endorsement actually provide?
This is a rather special case, so no generalized conclusions are even possible.
Trump didn't just endorse Herbster and then forget about him (which he does in plenty of the races he endorses candidates in). Trump even held an in-person rally for Herbster in the homestretch of the primary campaign.
But Trump's endorsement, being early, came before the big scandal. Herbster has now been accused by eight women of sexually groping them. One is a state senator from his own party, who accused Herbster of putting his hand up her skirt at a GOP fundraiser, and another Republican woman also accused him of sexual assault at the same party. This all came out in the final weeks of the primary campaign, before Trump held his rally for Herbster. Herbster denied the accusations and attacked his accusers. Trump, no stranger to sexual assault accusations himself, also chimed in: "[Charles Herbster] is the most innocent human being. He's the last person to do any of this stuff."
These days, you can't dismiss out of hand the thought that perhaps Herbster groped some women in an effort to be even more Trump-like, with the thought that it might actually improve his chances, but this just isn't true in his case. Such a thought would normally be considered completely bonkers, but these days you just never know, in Trumpworld. But Herbster's behavior reportedly took place long before he jumped into this race -- that fundraiser was in 2019, for instance.
In any case, it's impossible to know how much the scandal hurt Herbster. Republicans within the state denounced his behavior in strong terms, even if Trump himself let it all slide. Could Herbster have actually won the race if the accusations hadn't been made public? It's entirely possible. So even though he lost, it's not a clear-cut measurement of Trump's endorsement power.
Conclusions (such as they are...)
There's one interesting conclusion that suggests itself, but it is too early to really know if it is true or not -- perhaps Donald Trump's endorsement means more in races for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Trump won all his House contests last night, including one very tight race which (due to redistricting) pitted one sitting GOP House member against another. Trump's pick won. To date, Trump hasn't stumbled in his picks for either chamber of Congress. But he is on much shakier ground when it comes to governors' races.
Trump lost in Nebraska. He will likely soon lose in Idaho and Georgia. Both states have incumbent governors running against Trump-endorsed candidates, and Trump is personally invested in both of these races in a way he really wasn't in Nebraska (in both cases, this is due to Trump's thirst for revenge against insufficiently-worshipful Republicans).
Governors have their own base of support within their states. Indeed, they can't get elected without it. Because of this, they have a much better chance at fending off a Trump attack, at least as long as they remain popular to the voters. Such appears to be the case in both Idaho and Georgia, no matter how much Trump hates the incumbents.
But it may not be that simple. Trump has a few high-profile Senate races coming up with no guarantees that his endorsed candidate is going to win. If Trump loses in Pennsylvania or North Carolina, the power of his endorsement will be further weakened.
Trump is going to continue acting in his kingmaker role throughout the primaries and likely throughout the 2024 election cycle as well. But his nod is no guarantee of success. That is evident now, and it will continue to be evident in each high-profile race he loses. His endorsement will be the most-sought-after in the Republican Party, but it is still possible for strong candidates to win without it, and even against a Trump-endorsed challenger. That's the takeaway from Trump's first big 2020 primary loss.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Many more pundits will likewise dissect the ramifications blah blah blah but first, Trump and his minions completely ignore the bad news and glorify the good. They live in a different reality.
Second, I read your column CW but definitely I'll skip any further punditry on the subject.
I'm doing so because I'm glad I ignored months of anxious coverage of negotiations with Manchinema because nothing but the end result mattered.
Repugs are and will remain terrified of Trump.
Right up to the moment he becomes radioactive and then stand aside for the rush to the exits.
What do you think could make Trump become radioactive? Wearing radium-infused clothing? Based on past events, that doesn't seem to be enough, or he would have exploded long before now.
Heh.
He should have tried pie.
Yep.
So long as Democrats remain focused on Trump and not on their own dismal record over the last little while, they will be in big trouble come November ...'22 and '24 ... even more so than they already are, that is.
And, they will need more than pie to get out of it.
I have lost most, if not all, of the faith I had in Biden. What surprises me about that is how soon it happened.
I mean, I still believe he was the only Democrat on the planet who could have beat Trump in 2020 and I still thank God that he did. But, the way he has handled the Ukraine/Russia file has been nothing short of catastrophic, mostly for Ukraine.
As for the economy, well, I have given up on the idea that Democrats have the first clue about how to sink the Republicans on this file, Trump or no Trump. I'll change my tune when I hear one of them utter the phrase Republican cult of economic failure. I ain't holding my breath, naturally. :(
President Trump won several and lost minor one..
Of course, PTDS requires.. no.. DEMANDS.. that Democrats concentrate on the one minor loss and ignore all the big wins. :eyeroll:
So long as Democrats remain focused on Trump and not on their own dismal record over the last little while, they will be in big trouble come November ...'22 and '24 ... even more so than they already are, that is.
One could say that ALSO applies to Weigantia, eh? :D
I have lost most, if not all, of the faith I had in Biden. What surprises me about that is how soon it happened.
So... Would you say that it might have been better that Biden LOST the election. At least his reputation would have been intact and he could have exited politics on a somewhat high note??
As opposed to now, when his exit from politics will be as the POTUS that made Carter look like Lincoln...
I'll change my tune when I hear one of them utter the phrase Republican cult of economic failure.
Democrats can't say that.. They know that they would be laughed out of office.. Even more so than they are already going to be.. :D
And the media ain't doing Democrats any favors either.
Democrats and the Media are going to push Elon further and further away....
Which means that Elon will be pushed further and further to the Right...
Once again, Democrats PROVE that they are their own worst enemies..
JL, I still want to hear your thoughts on this issue..
"NY Times, are you going to blame children for decisions made by governments?"
Elon Musk's Mother
That's Democrats for you.. Nothing is too low to sink to..
:eyeroll:
Whistleblowers: FBI targeted parents via terrorism tools despite Garland's testimony that it didn't happen
Jordan and Johnson said these investigations were a direct result of Garland’s directive to the FBI
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-targeted-parents-via-terrorism-tools-despite-garland-testimony
Get that???
Violent protesters target SCOTUS Justices and their families and Biden and his DOJ does NOTHING. Actually ENCOURAGES it..
But school parents who are defending their children against Democrat indoctrination???
THOSE Americans are treated as domestic terrorists..
And you people wonder why Democrats are going to be massacred in November???
:eyeroll:
MC,
Many more pundits will likewise dissect the ramifications blah blah blah but first, Trump and his minions completely ignore the bad news and glorify the good. They live in a different reality.
As opposed to the reality that Democrats and Trump/America haters and Weigantians live in where they completely ignore the good news and glorify the bad??
Personally, I like the REAL reality much better than the reality that is filled with hate and bigotry..
Call me silly...
AG Garland LIED to Congress..
It's a good thing we didn't let this lying scumbag become a SCOTUS Justice...
McConnell's plan was definitely the correct way to go..
Biden admin cancels massive oil and gas lease sale amid record-high gas prices
Interior Department canceled a 1-million-plus acre oil lease in Alaska as Americans face painfully high prices at the pump
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-admin-cancels-oil-gas-lease-sale-record-high-prices
America is facing RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES..
So what do Biden's handlers do?? They have Biden cancel oil and gas lease sales...
Does anyone need any more proof that Biden's handlers are out to ruin this country??
I mean, seriously.. I know that the Green morons want to push gas prices to $10 a gallon so they can implement their green agenda...
But they are being so stoopid because gas prices are tied closely to winning (or in Democrats' case, LOSING) elections..
MORONS...
Liz,
I have lost most, if not all, of the faith I had in Biden. What surprises me about that is how soon it happened.
Yunno.. There is one thing that could restore your faith in Biden and make him the man he used to be...
But you just won't consider it..
And the stoopidity of Democrats CONTINUES to amaze..
Handmaid protester says Justice Barrett, mom of 5 biological kids, doesn't know about full-term pregnancy
Barrett is the mother of seven children, two of whom were adopted
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/justice-barrett-mom-5-doesnt-know-full-term-pregnancy-handmaid-protester
What *IS* it about Democrats that they are so ignorant and ill-informed??
"However, in this country, there's a separation of church and state. So somebody's religion, no matter what that might be, cannot dictate how they carry out their job as a public official."
-Moron Democrat Protester
So, this moron would agree that someone's LACK of religion, no matter what that may be, cannot dictate how.. oh let's say.. a baker would carry out his job???
Hypocrisy. It's not a bug in Democrat programming. It's a feature.
Right Wing protesters at the capital??
BAD and must be fought with Gestapo-esque tactics..
Left Wing protesters that are actually breaking the law by harassing Justices and their families in their homes??
GOOD and must be encouraged...
That's the Democrat way.. :eyeroll:
Hypocrisy. It's not a bug in Democrat programming. It's a feature.
Hay Democrats..
Winter's coming..
And Democrats LOSE AGAIN!!! :D
California under-21 gun sales ban ruled unconstitutional by US appeals court
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, however, ruled that a hunting license requirement for purchases of rifles or shotguns by adults under 21 who are not in the military or law enforcement was reasonable
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-gun-ban-unconstitutional-court
Aren't you people glad you have me around??
Otherwise ya'all would be thinking that everything is hunky dorky and Democrats were going to retain Congress in November.. :D
CO mom says middle school invited her daughter to secret LGBTQ club, told students to keep info from parents
Kids told, 'what you hear in here, stays in here,' mom says
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mom-middle-school-secret-lgbtq-club-students-parents
This is the kind of teachers that Democrats WANT in schools..
Teachers who will indoctrinate the children and turn the children against their parents..
Teaching used to be such an honorable profession. :^/
"She explained to my daughter that if she is not 100% comfortable in her female body, then she's transgender. She then told the kids that parents aren't safe, and that it's OK to lie to them about where they are in order to attend this meeting."
-Colorado Mother
How can Democrats defend this grotesque and perverse behavior??
She then told the kids that parents aren't safe, and that it's OK to lie to them about where they are in order to attend this meeting.
Get that?? Democrats are telling children that their parent's aren't safe.. That it's OK to LIE to their parents..
This is the Democrat Party way...
How sad...
TEACHERS!!! LEAVE THOSE KIDS ALONE!!!
-Pink Floyd
"Now, child.. This is our little secret. You can't tell your parents.."
-Democrat Teacher
Hmmmmm Seems that THAT is what a pedophile would say also... :^/
BLM has left Black Americans worse off since the movement began, experts say
'These communities are worse off because by (BLM) overemphasizing the role of police, they've changed police behavior for the worse,' the Manhattan Institute's Jason Riley says
https://www.foxnews.com/us/black-lives-matter-black-america-worse-off-police-murders-violence
Who could have POSSIBLY foreseen that Democrat/BLM cop-hate policies such as DEFUND, DEMORALIZE, DEMONIZE THE POLICE would be BAD for black Americans..
Who could have POSSIBLY seen this coming??
Oh... Wait... :^/
Texas appeals court reinstates law prohibiting social media companies from banning users over political views
The law will go back into effect while the case proceeds in a lower court
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/texas-appeals-court-social-media-banning-political-views
And Democrats lose AGAIN!!! :D
People in Texas are now immune from FaceBook and Twitter bans for political views.. :D
And all anyone has to do is to use a VPN, route it thru a Texas server and they also are immune from banning.. :D
WOOT!!!! :D
https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/05/918/516/cartoon-5.12.jpg?ve=1&tl=1
America could have remained GREAT if only Democrats loved their country more than they hated mean tweets...
:eyeroll:
Google teases smart glasses prototype that translates languages in real time
Google CEO Sundar Pichai teased a smart glasses prototype the company is working on that can translate languages in real time.
During the company’s I/O conference, Pichai showed a demo of augmented reality glasses that “take its developments and transcriptions” and deliver them in the user’s line of sight.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/google-smart-glasses-prototype-translates-languages-in-real-time.html
GOOGLE GLASS 2.0
Yea, cuz the 1.0 worked out SOOO well.. :^/
Why journalists are going bonkers over Musk’s plan to lift Trump’s Twitter ban
The near-nuclear reaction is driven by the bitter and emotional divide surrounding the former president
https://www.foxnews.com/media/media-going-bonkers-over-musks-plan-lift-trumps-twitter-ban
President Trump Derangement Syndrome (PTDS) is alive and well..
As the subject of this commentary proves beyond any doubt..
"I do think that it was not correct to ban Donald Trump. I think that was a mistake because it alienated a large part of the country and did not ultimately result in Donald Trump not having a voice. Since Trump was not exactly silenced this is why it is morally wrong and flat-out stupid."
-Elon Musk
This is what happens when one let's hate and bigotry cloud reason and logic.
Democrats/Trump-America haters created a STRONGER President Trump with their actions..
They told the world that President Trump is a danger to Democrat Party rule so he had to be eliminated..
Democrats brought about the very thing that they had hoped to prevent..
A STRONGER President Trump..
The ISHMAEL EFFECT strikes again!!
Claiming that a black Republican is an oxymoron is a completely and utterly bigoted and racist statement..
The Democrat Party is STILL the Party of racists..
It is no wonder that the Democrat Party is losing black American voters by the millions..
What do you think could make Trump become radioactive?
To patriotic Americans who actually LOVE their country???
Nothing..
To America/cop hating Democrats??
A mean tweet... :eyeroll:
"It's 6.30 in the morning, and we turn on the TV at work and there's always a story about someone getting shot. After awhile, you say what's going on? Where's black lives matter? There were protests against police brutality, but what about the black lady shot while sitting at a stop sign? All black lives should matter."
-Damon Jones, Retired LEO
Of course black American lives only MATTER when their deaths can be used as a blunt instrument to beat people over the head with..
Otherwise, black lives don't matter a bit to Democrats and BLM...
The FACTS prove this conclusively...
Democrats Protest Outside Of Justices' Homes
Where's the McCloskeys when ya need them, eh??
HA!!!! Whaddisay!!???? A Sotomayer clerk!!!!
NAILED IT!!!
Sotomayer is mudd in the SCOTUS...
We should wait til President Trump is back in the Oval Office and force Sotomayer to retire...
It's amazing that a group that portends that they represent RBG... Who was as critical of RvW as Alito in the majority SCOTUS Opinion..
Hypocrisy. It's not a bug in Democrat programming. It's a feature
It's not surprising that it's a Sotomayer clerk who leaked this..
It also would not be surprising if this clerk leaked it on orders from Sotomayer...
Sotomayer is mudd...
Flipping to another track..
If Putin had any sense at all, he would attack Finland BEFORE Finland is actually part of NATO..
That way, Putin can do to Finland what he's doing to Ukraine and Biden/NATO would just whine, "Finland is NOT part of NATO.. Nothing we can do..." :eyeroll:
DH,
Since your disgusting attack on my mother who passed away, I vowed never to respond to you again..
But this is just too blatant to let pass un-noted...
If you like your home, CW, address One Demand before I have to protest outside of your home. :D
Are you TRYING to get banned???
Because such a threat is a BLATANT violation of policy, not to mention common decency, and no one would say diddley if the Weigantian Administration wiped you from Weigantia..
*smh*
Kremlin calls Finland's NATO move a threat to Russia
Russia threatens to deploy nuclear warheads on Finland's border
https://www.foxnews.com/world/kremlin-finland-nato-move-threat-to-russia
Apparently, Putin is not as stoopid as Biden thinks he is...
I am forced to agree with this reasoning..
Roberts should join the majority and release the opinion immediately...
Leave it to Democrats to bring back McCarthy'ism... :^/
Michale,
So... Would you say that it might have been better that Biden LOST the election. At least his reputation would have been intact and he could have exited politics on a somewhat high note??
I thought I made myself clear about that??
I would say and have said that if Biden wasn't the Democratic nominee in 2020, then Trump wouldn't be a one-term president. As it stands now, I don't think Trump will ever be president again and that is a very good thing.
Biden sacrificed quite a lot by running in 2020 and my appreciation for that knows no bounds!
By the way, if Biden hadn't run in 2020 or if he had lost to Trump - which he almost did! - then I am as sure as I can be that Biden would NOT have gone out on a high note in any of your books. So, there!
GOP rep says illegal migrants sent ‘pallets’ of hard-to-find baby formula
Cammack's claim comes as American parents worry about a shortage of baby formula
https://www.foxnews.com/us/gop-rep-illegal-migrants-pallets-baby-formula
Now THAT's just WRONG!!
@m,
i'm sure CW is busy with something important. he wouldn't let a fortnight of nonstop expletive-laced temper tantrums go unchecked otherwise. in case i didn't mention it, i'm very proud of you for taking the high road yet again, in spite of some pretty filthy provocation.
JL
Yeah, Michale, what Joshua said!
Sorry, Don ... that doesn't make any sense.
Which is par for the course.
I am saying that Bernie couldn't even get the Democratic nomination let alone demonstrate a capacity for winning a general election.
This ain't rocket science.
Of course, he did have some stiff competetion. But, still ...
Coulda woulda shoulda. Biden actually did win. Perhaps I'm in the minority on this, but i think given the situation he was handed he's done quite well. Spiking the ball too soon on COVID has cost him, as has the clusterfrak of leaving Afghanistan. But other criticisms on issues like inflation, supply chain and Ukraine are patently unfair. His performance overall has been mediocre, but I'll take that over the breakneck excitement of a trump white House every day and twice on Sundays.
in case i didn't mention it, i'm very proud of you for taking the high road yet again, in spite of some pretty filthy provocation.
Thanx JL and Liz.. That means a lot.. Sincerely..
Criticism of Biden on Ukraine is patently spot on, at every turn!
Ukraine will be a "basket case" for many decades as a result of actions taken and not taken by Biden and NATO. That much is clear as a bell.
His performance overall has been mediocre, but I'll take that over the breakneck excitement of a trump white House every day and twice on Sundays.
Indeed.
I just get tired real fast of having to settle for mediocrity, at best. :(
Love you, Michale! :)
Liz,
Awwwww... Feelings mutual.. :D
Elementary school teachers say 'no' to parents' wishes they refer to students by pronouns given at birth
'And because I had my principal and my superintendent’s support, there wasn't much they can do,' one educator said
https://www.foxnews.com/media/elementary-school-teachers-parents-wishes-students-pronouns
So... According to Democrats, parents are no longer "parents" any more...
They are "caregivers"...
It's like Democrats are TRYING to lose big in November..
:eyeroll:
JL, you wanna weigh in??
Would you obey the parent's instructions??
Or the 5yr olds' orders??
His performance overall has been mediocre, but I'll take that over the breakneck excitement of a trump white House every day and twice on Sundays.
You prefer dull and incompetent over excitement and awesomely good at the job???
Agree to disagree.. :D
I would listen to each parent regarding their own child and nobody else's.
I would listen to each parent regarding their own child and nobody else's.
I thought you might..
YOU are a good example of a good teacher..
You need to straighten out the Democrats.. Imagine listening to the CHILD and not the parent..
"I want to start smoking and drinking but my parents say NO."
-8 yr old child
"Well, then.. We don't have to listen to your parents. Your parents aren't safe. You should be able to make your OWN decisions.. Here, have a drink and a cigarette.. Now, why don't you sit right here next to me all comfy and cozy like.. Tell me, Johnny. Have you ever been to a Turkish Bath??"
-Democrat Teacher
"Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter is a BERLIN WALL COMING DOWN moment..."
-PayPal COO
A-frakin'-men to THAT!!!
Democrats are so incensed that they will no longer be able to kill babies in the womb...
So, they settled on PLAN B...
Republicans demand Biden admin immediately address baby formula shortage: 'This is not a third world country'
'This is a crisis for families,' said one lawmaker
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-demand-biden-admin-immediately-address-baby-formula-shortage-not-third-world-country
Starving the babies to death after they're born...
:eyeroll:
Americans oppose transgender surgeries, anti-puberty blockers for minors: poll
Medical professionals have told Fox News they have seen rates of gender dysphoria skyrocket among young people in recent years
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/americans-oppose-transgender-surgeries-anti-puberty-blockers-for-minors-poll
Once again..
The Democrat Party is on the WRONG side of the American people..
Let me repeat that for the cheap seats..
In another question, respondents were asked whether they supported or were against children being pushed into a sex change. Around 63% of respondents agreed that children were too young for the decision.
Gender Dysphoria is an ABNORMALITY.. A mental health problem.. It needs to be CURED.. Not catered to..
You wouldn't cater to a child with COVID.. Why would you want to cater to a child with mental health issues??
OK.. My time's my wife's now.. :D
See ya'all in the morning..