The Shifting Midterm Landscape
This month has been a monumental one in politics, containing several far-reaching Supreme Court decisions and the January 6th committee hearings. While it is too soon to tell, all of this may have shifted things in Democrats' favor heading into the midterm congressional elections. Democratic voters are a lot more engaged and motivated to vote, while Republicans are losing ground. Whether this proves to be enough to counteract the expected "red wave" in November is still a very open question, but it is clear that the shift has so far favored the Democrats.
Overturning Roe v. Wade has been the biggest driver of this shift. What was once unimaginable or unthinkable is now hard, cold reality. And people are angry. Democrats have already capitalized on this in two ways -- Democratic candidates are now making their support for women's rights a central issue to their campaigns, and in states where it is possible, ballot measures are being prepared to allow the people to directly vote on the issue. These measures have a good chance of passing, at least in some states, because the polling shows people are much more pro-choice than anti-abortion. Importantly, this could boost turnout, in much the same way that Republicans so effectively used gay marriage bans in the 1990s and 2000s. If people are motivated to vote on an abortion referendum, then they'll likely also vote for the Democrats on the ballot.
Democratic candidates are leaning in to the issue too, and their fundraising skyrocketed immediately after the Supreme Court decision was announced. But the best news for Democrats is that some polls are now looking a lot friendlier than they were even one month ago. In a recent Marist poll, on the generic question which asks which party the voter would favor in congressional elections, Democrats were up by seven points. That's a pretty big lead, and a big turnaround from being behind the Republicans on the question. Of course, it is just one poll -- overall FiveThirtyEight.com has Republicans up by two points in their polling average of the generic ballot question. But if this really is the start of a major shift, the polling should soon reflect it across the board.
More and more states have now held their primaries, so the general election slate has become clear. And Republicans have nominated some rather extreme candidates or candidates with obvious vulnerabilities in more than one Senate race (in Georgia and Pennsylvania, most notably). And much more than in the House races, both the candidates and the voters are tying Senate candidates directly to the Roe ruling. Democrats are openly running on boosting their majority in the Senate by at least two votes, to overcome the refusal of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to change the filibuster rule. "Elect me and we will get abortion rights passed in the Senate!" has become a familiar thing to hear in these races. Neither Sinema nor Manchin is up for re-election this year, but they are being featured in a lot of Democratic campaigns nonetheless.
It's not just abortion driving this, either. Getting rid of the filibuster (or at least modifying the rules) could allow Democrats to pass voting rights bills, reform the Supreme Court, pass some version of Build Back Better, and act to combat climate change... the list is a long one, and the only thing standing in the way of seeing these things enacted are two Democrats. Add two more Democrats to the Senate and the problem would be solved. And voters in battleground Senate races are fully aware of this dynamic.
Even Joe Biden, normally a Senate traditionalist, has gotten on board this effort. This morning, he said the following:
I believe we have to codify Roe v. Wade into law. And the way to do that is to make sure the Congress votes to do that. And if the filibuster gets in the way -- it's like voting rights -- it should be we provide an exception for this... require an exception to the filibuster for this action to deal with the Supreme Court decision.
It's less clear whether the Roe issue is going to impact House races, which often have a more local focus. Democrats could even wind up flipping two or more Senate seats only to lose control of the House. But even if that happens, it now looks like Republicans may have a much smaller majority than they were hoping for. It may be more of a wavelet than a big wave, in other words.
Of course, we're still a long ways away from Election Day. Nobody, at this point, can be sure what will be on voters' minds in November. Other issues may pop up that nobody is even thinking about right now. The big question is the staying power of the backlash against the Roe decision. Right now it is forefront in many people's minds, but that could fade away after a few months. Or pro-choice voters could get even angrier and even more motivated to get to the polls. Nobody knows yet what the impact will be.
The landscape does seem to be shifting, though, for the moment. Up until the beginning of this month, it was conventional wisdom that Republicans would ride a big red wave into Congress in the midterms. Now, however, that conclusion seems more than a little premature. And that is good news for Democrats.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
given the temerity of the anti-american gang of five on the supreme court, we can only hope.
The Democrats must make a case to the voters about the economic issues that are on their minds. I hope they can say something like, "Inflation and gas prices are a world problem, not just a US problem, and we can't make those problems go away. But when it comes to your economic interest, we're trying to tax the rich at a fair rate and rein in astronomical prescription drug prices, while the Republicans have no plan at all to do anything that would help you. Their only plan is to thwart our efforts on your behalf."
andygaus,
I gave up on Dems a long time ago when it comes to being capable of persuading voters that they are better stewards of the economy than the Republican cult of economic failure.
And, it is SUCH an easy case to make! Republicans have a long track record of leaving economic messes - on the order of magnitude of the Augean Stables, for God's sake!!! - for Democratic administrations to clean up.
For the last many years Republicans have also just stymied everything Democrats have tried to do to strengthen the economy and make it more resilient.
Where is Timothy Geithner when you need him!?
I mean that sincerely - I'm not trying to be facetious here. Nobody called out the Republican cult of economic failure more comprehensively than he did while he was Treasury secretary in the Obama administration. NOBODY, before or since.
Chris will remind me of the Democratic senator who comes close in this regard. But, the fact that I can't remember who that is at the moment means that he is not calling out the Republican cult of economic failure nearly loudly nor often enough. (I can picture the guy but what the heck is his name ... )
JL,
(this was my second choice)
According to YOUR Democrats men CAN get pregnant..
NOW Democrats say "birthing person" instead of "woman"..
I know I know.. It's totally and utterly moronic, eh? :eyeroll:
JL,
I'm confused
It's really simple..
Kick has been slapped down by me again and again.. She is soooo desperate to start more flame wars here in Weigantia again..
But what she doesn't realize is that I am totally and completely in control here..
I have the power here.. She has none.. :D
But her lame an inane attempts are really REALLY amusing ain't they.. :D
Well, whaddya know... WaPoop finally gets one right!! :D
WaPoop is acknowledging that what I have been saying all along is dead on ballz accurate...
The Democrat Party has failed... Over and over and over again..
The Democrat Party.. The *REAL* CULT OF FAILURE Party..
Even WaPoop admits this.. :D
The landscape does seem to be shifting, though, for the moment. Up until the beginning of this month, it was conventional wisdom that Republicans would ride a big red wave into Congress in the midterms. Now, however, that conclusion seems more than a little premature. And that is good news for Democrats.
No, that conclusion is NOT premature..
Because abortion is way way way down on the list of priorities for REAL Americans..
Yunno.. The Americans that actually love their country...
Basically all Roe v Wade has done is make hysterical Democrats who would never vote for a GOP'er anyways, even more hysterical...
The mid-term dynamic has not changed one iota..
And this is PROVEN by the fact that there is only ONE poll out there that shows any kind of change..
ALL of the OTHER polls out there prove that the GOP is STILL riding a huge Red tsunami and will take control of both houses of Congress....
"These are the facts of the case. And they are undisputed."
-Captain 'Smilin' Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN
Oh look.. They are having a J6C-esque trial in Russia...
Brittney Griner detention: WNBA superstar heads to ‘sham trial,’ Russian court system under microscope
A report from the State Department found that, in 2020, only 0.34% of defendants were acquitted
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/brittney-griner-wnba-sham-trial-russia
Two-time Olympic gold medalist and WNBA star Brittney Griner will appear in court Friday, more than four months after she was arrested in Russia for allegedly bringing vape cartridges containing oils derived from cannabis through a Moscow airport.
U.S. officials fear the American basketball icon will be the subject of a "sham trial."
Yep.. Just like President Trump is being the subject of a sham trial.. A Cardassian show trial...
Jean Luc,
Yesterday, you admitted that the most important parts of Hutichison's testimony was hearsay..
Which simply proves that the 6JC is NOT a REAL criminal trial...
Because in a REAL criminal trial, hearsay would not be admissible as evidence...
So, we apparently agree that, as a REAL criminal trial, the 6JC has more in common with a Cardassian trial than with a Federation trial.. :D
I always love it when we can find common ground.. :D
Biden administration
A quarter of Americans open to taking up arms against government, poll says
Survey of 1,000 registered US voters also reveals that most Americans agree government is ‘corrupt and rigged’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/30/poll-americans-guns-against-government
Yep.. Yep... Yep...
Biden's Handlers' administration is the most corrupt and most incompetent administration since Jimmy Carter...
For those of you who claim that this bimbo Hutchison did not lie, ya'all are factually not accurate..
There are at least TWO documented and proven lies..
One where bimbo claimed she authored a message that she did not.
And the other where said bimbo claimed she was briefed by Tony Almaeda and he flatly denied that...
These are two (of many) well documented lies while she was under oath.. And if she is lying about THOSE things, then her entire testimony is called into question..
I get it.. I really do.. Ya'all WANT to believe her...
If she had testified that she witnessed President Trump on the Grassy Knoll with a rifle on 22 Nov, 1963, ya'all would believe that as well..
If it's going against President Trump, ya'all would believe ANYTHING...
Hutch is the PERFECT representation of the Cardassian show trial that is the 6JC...
She is Blasey-Ford's kid sister and has the same knack for spewing BS that even her own WITNESSES claims she is full of crap...
Hutch is the Poster Child for the Cardassian Show Trial that is the 6JC...
The USSS has reported that every Secret Service Agent that was with President Trump that day are ready and willing to testify...
Anyone wanna make any bets???
50,000 quatloos says that the Cardassian Show Trial that is the 6JC won't seat these agents that will testify in President Trump's favor and allow them to testify in support of President Trump..
JL, you wanna do a T-Shirt bet, I'm game.. :D
Jean Luc,
If you ARE thinking of a T-Shirt Bet....
Here's the one I am thinking of for you..
:D
Hutch lied under oath.. Pure and simple..
If this were an actual trial instead of a Cardassian Show Trial, the jury would disregard and ignore EVERYTHING this bimbo said..
All Hutch has done is further discredit the 6JC.
The ONLY people who find this bimbo credible are the one's who would believe ANYTHING bad about President Trump no matter how ludicrous it is...
As I said above..
All Hutch did was prove beyond ANY doubt that the 6JC is nothing but a Cardassian show trial.. A Soviet-era show trial..
That's all she accomplished..
Like I said before.. THIS is a bigger blow to the hysterical Democrats/Progressives agenda than RvW...
Good times.. :D
Democrats haven't been this angry since the Republicans freed their slaves... :D
To clarify...
Democrats haven't been this angry since Republicans freed the Democrats' slaves...
:D
Ok, if Republicans control the Senate next January, I'll wear that. If Dems control the Senate, you wear vasectomies prevent abortions
Ok, if Republicans control the Senate next January, I'll wear that. If Dems control the Senate, you wear vasectomies prevent abortions
Oh.. OK.. I was thinking more along the lines of whether or not the Cardassian court will allow the USSS agents to testify in support of President Trump...
But I'll take yer action as well.. :D
The first and third of those statements are not entirely true.
1. The part of Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony that is most important isn't necessarily the part that's most salacious (i.e.appealing to the media). To be honest i have no idea which part of her testimony will end up being important, nor for whom, nor to what end. The part in the limo is indeed hearsay, but i never claimed that part was particularly important.
3. There are about thirty specific exceptions to the dismissal of hearsay evidence at a criminal trial. I'm not familiar enough with the procedure to know if this particular type of hearsay would qualify as one of those exceptions, but it might, depending.
And as I've said before, of course a Congressional hearing is completely different from a criminal trial. There's no power to indict, convict, sentence or punish. Its power is solely to gather and present evidence.
Yeah, i don't have any sense of who will or won't testify. I doubt the committee would outright refuse any relevant testimony, but there are too many non binary outcomes to make any sort of wager worthwhile.
Chris presumes (hopes?) that the loss of the right to kill unborn humans will aggravate those who want to kill unborn humans more than it will motivate those who want human life preserved, to go to the polls.
That may be correct, or it may not.
@crs,
Most people, even in red states, want women to retain at least some rights to abort. The minority who want an absolute or near-absolute ban are already about as motivated as they can get; the other side is much more variable.
JL
I wonder if those who support an absolute or near-absolute ban on abortion are able to give and receive pleasure.
Well, inquiring minds would really like to know! :)
Oh, and Happy Canada D'eh!!! everyone ...
Yeah, i don't have any sense of who will or won't testify. I doubt the committee would outright refuse any relevant testimony
Are you kidding me??
They have already outright refused testimony from over a hundred capitol cops that wanted to testify how badly Democrats fraked up in the days and weeks leading up to 6 Jan..
There are about thirty specific exceptions to the dismissal of hearsay evidence at a criminal trial.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/fre/rule_803
None of which apply to Bimbo Hutch's testimony..
Few things are more juvenile than name-calling ...
Liz,
Oh, and Happy Canada D'eh!!! everyone ...
I know you hate my links..
But this one's for you... :D
Canadian Explains CANADA DAY To American Neighbor
:D
Most people, even in red states, want women to retain at least some rights to abort.
Too bad Democrats weren't satisfied with SAFE, LEGAL and RARE, eh Jean Luc???
They still would have had their right to kill their babies..
But Democrats just had to rub their baby killing into sane patriotic Americans' faces..
And now they got squat...
That was fun! :)
I'll have Ep 9 to you by tonight...
Liz,
I thought you might like that one.. :D
I did! But, he forot to mention that we have the best Kick Ass rock and roll bands ...
Kick Ass
[20]
Dunno why you're waging with a guy who welched on both his 2020 bets. At least he still had enough shame in him to disappear from Weigantia for a year after all that crowing ahead of time. Hopefully he'll do likewise after this one.
What would you do if he did. ;)
Trump is polling ahead of Biden
Dunno why you're waging with a guy who welched on both his 2020 bets.
Not at all.. I paid the $100 bet.. I simply chose a more worthy recipient..
Quit whining about it already.. Yer embarrassing yourself..
Hopefully he'll do likewise after this one.
You mean the mid-terms?? Why would I want to leave.. I am going to have sooo much fun with you, MC... :D
You'll be my own personal chew-toy.. :D
Liz,
Trump is polling ahead of Biden
That doesn't surprise you, does it??
There you have it.. Hurting Americans...
It's all part of the Democrat Party plan... :eyeroll:
Surprise me? No. It does disappoint me, tho.
Well, the next presidential election is quite a ways off yet. Oh, wait ...
Well, with the GOP owning the Congress, it's not as if Democrats are going to have any real chance to get anything from their agenda done..
Democrats basically have 129 days to accomplish anything..
No, that's not entirely accurate.. They have until the new year...
But it's unlikely they can accomplish anything of note..
But, you're rooting for them to accomplish something, right?
[39]
Dunno why you're waging with a guy who welched on both his 2020 bets.
Not at all.. I paid the $100 bet.. I simply chose a more worthy recipient..
Happy for your imaginary recipient. That decision has nothing to do with this issue.
It's too late to specify that if you lost the bet you could welch on paying it by claiming to pay someone else. If you're still here Comment Spamming the poor guy's blog (and costing him future Weigantians/monetary support...hello CW!) you ought to at least man up and keep your word.
Happy for your imaginary recipient. That decision has nothing to do with this issue.
You keep telling yerself whatever, MC...
I have documented that I had paid the wager...
So when you claim I haven't, yer simply lying..
It's too late to specify that if you lost the bet you could welch on paying it by claiming to pay someone else.
And yet, I did it.. :D So, apparently, it wasn't too late, eh? :D
you ought to at least man up and keep your word.
I did.. Just not in the manner you wanted.. :D
So, we're square... No matter how much you lie and deny it.. We're square.. :D
Liz,
But, you're rooting for them to accomplish something, right?
As long as it's for the good of the country, damn skippy...
But we both know that Democrats only do what's good for Democrats...
As has been proven by the latest claim from the Biden official who said that $5+ a gallon of gas is all part of the plan to bring about the "liberal order"...
FPC…
If she lied about the big things (which it's documented she did) she has no credibility for ANY of it..
That YOU posted this is so rich that it has to be fattening! You worship at the zipper of the biggest liar to ever hold public office. You, yourself, lie about your own work history and only got caught because you could not keep your lies straight. So by your own reasoning here, we should simply ignore ANYTHING you post!
HUNDREDS of cops were willing to testify that it was Congressional leadership and their unpreparedness and incompetence that actually was the cause of the 6 Jan riot..
You are claiming that those officers who stood up to the failed insurrection on January 6th believe that it was their own unpreparedness and incompetence that actually was the cause of the 6 Jan riot ?!?!
REALLY? The police caused the crowds to storm the Capitol and try to stop the EC count from being finalized? I would have thought that you’d blame BLM for causing the riots before you would try to blame the police; but clearly your subservience to Trump is worse than I originally believed.
Which simply PROVES beyond ANY doubt..
The 6JC is nothing but a Cardassian Show Trial..
The entire 6JC is NOTHING but *ONE* side of the story...
You sure are proud of yourself for coming up with the whole Cardassian Show Trial analogy…but it makes absolutely no sense! This 6JC is not a trial court. They are presenting their investigations’ findings to the public… of course it is one sided! They are presenting their findings. You do not seem to understand the difference between a “trial” and a “hearing”.
Again, NOT FACTUALLY ACCURATE...
Secret Service Is Reportedly Prepared to Testify Trump Didn’t Try to Commandeer Limo on Jan. 6, Despite Hutchinson Account
Of course they will testify that Trump did not try to commandeer his limo on January 6…they were in an SUV. Whoever came up with that headline did so very intentionally
MC,
Just in case ya missed it...
Wager PART 1
Wager PART 2
Very Nice THANK YOU From The Lady Who Benefitted From My Donation
I am absolutely CERTAIN that if the old CW were still with us, he would whole-heartedly approve of my donation...
So, you can whine and cry and lie and stamp your feet all you want..
But none of that will change the basic facts..
I paid up on my wager.. PERIOD.. FULL STOP..
Now, can you let this poor deceased equine rest in peace??
You are claiming that those officers who stood up to the failed insurrection on January 6th believe that it was their own unpreparedness and incompetence that actually was the cause of the 6 Jan riot ?!?!
Nope.. That's not what I was claiming..
But I can see why you would want to believe that... Cop Hating Democrat that you are..
You sure are proud of yourself for coming up with the whole Cardassian Show Trial analogy…but it makes absolutely no sense!
Have you seen the episode??
Of course not..
Then you are ignorant of what I am speaking about..
You do not seem to understand the difference between a “trial” and a “hearing”.
Even in a HEARING, BOTH sides are presented..
The fact that you agree with me that only ONE SIDE is being presented proves my point for me..
Of course they will testify that Trump did not try to commandeer his limo on January 6…they were in an SUV. Whoever came up with that headline did so very intentionally
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
You DO know that there ARE SUV limos, right??
We actually took one down to Canaveral for our first cruise together.. :D
Russ, please stop.. Yer just embarrassing yourself...
No matter how ya slice it, this Hutch bimbo lied..
She lied about President Trump grabbing at the steering wheel of the SUV Limo.. She lied about President Trump assaulting a USSS agent.. She lied about being told that President Trump did these things.. She lied about writing a message she did not write...
She's a liar.. Pure and simple..
She is simply another Blasey-Ford.. A liar of a woman who's OWN WITNESSES says she is lying...
That's the only take-away from this bimbo's testimony..
PERIOD... FULL STOP...
I know, I know.. Ya'all WANT to believe it's more than that..
But facts are facts..
And let's face it.. Ya'all would believe ANYTHING bad said about President Trump...
[50]
I am absolutely CERTAIN that if the old CW were still with us, he would whole-heartedly approve of my donation...
So, you can whine and cry and lie and stamp your feet all you want..
It's not for CW to say. This is between you and I. I don't care if this is how y'all bet down in the swamps. You go ahead and assume (you'd know what that word really means if you ever served) whatever you like. So long as you keep polluting Weigantia I'll step up when you're not already embarrassing yourself sufficient to my taste and remind everybody what an dishonorable excuse of a man you are. So I guess if you're a Trumpanzie you've forgotten how to feel shame. Part for the course.
I am absolutely CERTAIN that if the old CW were still with us, he would whole-heartedly approve of my donation...
The old CW is still with us, you are the one who changed...
MtnCaddy
54
I'll step up when you're not already embarrassing yourself sufficient to my taste and remind everybody what a dishonorable excuse of a man you are.
Very well said, MC.
First off, the dishonorable excuse of a man didn't pay the amount he agreed to in your wager. Second, he altered the recipient of the wager.
Therefore, he is dishonorable in multiple ways; nothing he keeps spewing with his keyboard will change the fact that he's a loser many times over.
Michale
5
It's really simple..
I agree you are "simple."
Kick has been slapped down by me again and again..
Not factually accurate.
The first time you tried to slap me, I grabbed both your arms. Several minutes later after your flabby arm fat stopped flapping around, I relieved your of both your hands. Now your stumps and arm fat just flail in the air aimlessly. Obviously, removing you of your tiny little stubby fingers wouldn't have been necessary if you hadn't made the attempt to which you've confessed here.
She is soooo desperate to start more flame wars here in Weigantia again..
If copying your simple comments toward Russ and using them verbatim in response to you is "flame wars," then you're the arsonist.
But what she doesn't realize is that I am totally and completely in control here..
Not factually accurate.
I'm well aware -- as is everyone here who is a regular reader -- that you are the indisputable King of Doublewide Trailerville and of Fleas in the Swamps. :)