I Want To Believe
For the second day running, I am leaning on a pop culture reference to express how I feel about politics. Today's title comes from The X-Files, as it was the slogan prominently displayed on a poster of a flying saucer which hung on Agent Fox Mulder's office wall. So here's what I want to now believe, after last night's bombshell news:
I want to believe Joe Manchin. I do. I want to believe that this time he will actually follow through on his promises and not back out or blow everything up at the last minute.
This will require a large leap of faith, since he has done just that on numerous occasions in the past year. Yes, it's been a year -- Politico helpfully pointed out today that the letter Manchin and Schumer signed which laid out what Manchin was prepared to support and what he wasn't was dated July 28, 2021. This whole dance began in earnest one year ago today, in other words.
In the intervening time, Manchin has seemed very close to a deal multiple times. Then he'd get into a snit and announce he was pulling all support for all aspects of the deal. He'd gain another round of television interviews, and he'd get courted by the White House and Schumer all over again, and the game of tease would just go on and on.
So now this time we have to believe that he's actually being truthful and will follow through. Like I said, it requires a rather large leap of faith.
I want to believe that the surprise nature of the announcement was actually Chuck Schumer outmaneuvering Mitch McConnell (for once).
McConnell had threatened to pull Republican support for what is now called the "Chips and Science Act" if Democrats didn't give up their efforts to pass something (anything!) through budget reconciliation rules. This hostage-taking didn't work, though. The Chips and Science Act passed the Senate yesterday with plenty of Republicans voting for it. Mere hours later, the Manchin/Schumer deal was announced.
That seems more than just coincidence. It actually seems tactically planned. McConnell was not happy about this turn of events, and tried to get House Republicans to kill the bill -- to no avail. Plenty of House Republicans also voted for the bill today, and it is now on its way to President Joe Biden's desk for his signature -- a clear political win for him. The hostage escaped unharmed, in other words.
I want to believe this was planned, just for the joy of watching Mitch McConnell get beaten at his own game, for once.
I want to believe that Kyrsten Sinema won't torpedo the bill because she feels left out of all the attention being lavished on Manchin. I want to believe that one of her fatcat donors won't call her up and say: "You want the gravy train to continue, right? So you've got to kill this bill."
Sinema has been bought and paid for by corporate America, plain and simple. She has used her power to kill previous suggestions of a deal. After campaigning on raising taxes on the wealthy and huge corporations, one day she suddenly announced she would kill any deal that raised taxes above the Trump tax cut level -- even on the richest of the rich. Because they were now her big donors and she had to keep them happy.
There are indeed two tax hikes in the deal Manchin and Schumer announced. The first would put a minimum tax of 15 percent on corporations, no matter how many write-offs they amassed. The second would curtail the enormous tax break for "the carried interest loophole," which is a fancy way of saying "people who make zillions buying and selling stocks get to pay half the tax rate that average workers do."
Sinema has never agreed to either of those things, and she has been awfully quiet today. So it's still a mystery whether she'll get on board or not. But I want to believe she will.
I want to believe that all 50 Democratic senators will be healthy enough to vote at the same time.
Dick Durbin tested positive for COVID-19 today. Joe Manchin tested positive a few days earlier. Pat Leahy is still recovering from two operations on his hip. The Senate, unlike the House, never adopted COVID rules for remote sessions or remote voting. The old rules still apply -- senators have to be physically present on the chamber's floor in order to cast a vote.
With only 50 senators, this obviously means that everyone has to be healthy at exactly the same time. The bill is reportedly scheduled to hit the floor next week, and then the Senate has their big August vacation planned just afterwards. That's a pretty tight window.
I want to believe all 50 Democrats can all manage to be healthy enough to vote at some point during the next week, but all it would take (really) is one more COVID-positive announcement from a Democratic senator to derail that.
I want to believe that groups of Democrats in the House won't refuse to vote for the Senate version because it doesn't have their pet project in it.
The one most often mentioned is a group of moderate Democrats pushing to remove the Trump tax cut $10,000 ceiling on state and local taxes (called "SALT" for brevity's sake). This limits the deductions taxpayers can claim on their income taxes in places with high property values and high state and local taxes -- which are mostly blue states (this was a targeted tax hike Republicans passed, mostly out of spite). Earlier, in the discussions on the Build Back Better bill, a group of House Democrats swore they'd never vote for a bill that didn't get rid of the SALT cap. Will they still stick to their position? Or will they bend to political reality and go ahead and vote for it anyway?
I want to believe they won't torpedo a big win for Joe Biden right before a midterm campaign season. They surely wouldn't be that intransigent, would they?
All in all, hoping for this bill to actually make it to Joe Biden's desk to be signed is (at the present) an act of faith. The only saving grace to all of this is it looks like it will happen quickly, at least. So by the end of next week (with delays, the vote might get pushed to the weekend), we will all know whether this faith was misplaced or rewarded.
I want to believe that this deal is going to pass.
I want to believe Joe Manchin. I really do.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Once again, things look promising for politically beneficial legislation. But I'm still not paying much attention because I'm only interested in the results (or lack thereof) and not this maddening process.
Sure would like to swap Manchin and Corporate Sinema for Collins and Murkowski, still. Two DINOs for two RINOs.
Perhaps Collins and Murkowski, if they are still around after the midterms and the Republicans take a turn for the worse, they may be enticed into the Democratic fold??
CONNECTING THE DOTS
Without the wordy accompanying comments and jumping forthwith straight into the results, the dot connecting exercise has produced the following as the most likely of numerous possible event scenarios:
(1) Machin already knows without doubt that Sinema will ultimately thumbs-down the deal.
(2) Manchin increasingly believes Democrats will pick up seats in the Senate that will hereinafter render his current notable influence effectively neutered so he's aiming for the fences now.
I want to believe it's 2. :)
Heh.
Elizabeth Miller
2
Perhaps Collins and Murkowski, if they are still around after the midterms and the Republicans take a turn for the worse, they may be enticed into the Democratic fold??
After running on a promise to serve only 2 terms, Collins was reelected in 2020 to her 5th term and (assuming she remains in good health and breathing) will be around after the midterms. It is highly unlikely that Collins would leave the Republican Party, and in the unlikely event she did, she would be more likely to become an Independent. Angus King, Maine's junior Senator, is an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
Murkowski is up for reelection in 2022 and Donald Trump wants her primaried. Murkowski was reelected in 2010 by write-in campaign after being primaried by a Tea Party Candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin. Fast forward to 2022 and Alaska has ranked choice voting (tends to favor incumbents). If Murkowski were to ever leave the Republican Party (not out of the realm of possibility, she has made the threat before), she would be most likely to become an Independent.
The above does not factor in the brand spanking new "Forward Party" in any way.
Forward Party?
Did I miss something?
If Sinema trashes this deal I don't see a future for her in the Democratic Party. I do see a future for a bullet in her Corporatism head. Not by me, of course.
(thinking)
Although the CA-AZ border is only 3+ hours away from me.
I do see a future for a bullet in her Corporatism head. Not by me, of course.
Congrats, MtnCaddy! You've just won yourself a probable visit from the FBI or your local law enforcement and having every aspect of your personal life reviewed by people who, it is rumored, were born without the facial muscles you need to smile. Ya can't joke about executions in today's world. No one laughs.
Forward Party?
Did I miss something?
Former Republicans and Democrats form new third U.S. political party
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-former-republicans-democrats-form-new-third-us-political-party-2022-07-27/
Be careful, Caddy.
Kick,
I suppose being an Independent and caucusing with the Dems is a pretty good outcome for Collins and/or Murkowski, however unlikely.
ListenWhenYouHear
8
You're not wrong, you know, Russ; I just now saw it and was thinking the exact same thing.
Ya can't joke about executions in today's world. No one laughs.
Exactly. I can't remember a time it was ever a laughing matter.
Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
^^^ Still not funny after all these years. ^^^
Elizabeth Miller
11
I suppose being an Independent and caucusing with the Dems is a pretty good outcome for Collins and/or Murkowski, however unlikely.
Highly unlikely for either of them.
However highly unlikely then.
It doesn't really matter, anyway.
Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
^^^ Still not funny after all these years. ^^^
OK, maybe it's a little funny.
ListenWhenYouHear
15
Well, it wasn't meant to be funny.
Heh.
Well, it wasn't funny a couple days ago. ;)
Love you, Russ!