Mary Peltola Has A Good Night
I try not to write about the same subject two days in a row as a general rule, but sometimes circumstances demand it. Yesterday, I wrote a speculative article about the Alaskan primaries and special election for their sole House seat, and in it I made a pretty obvious assumption that turned out not to be true. So I thought the subject needed revisiting.
I wrote about three of the races in Alaska yesterday -- Lisa Murkowski's Senate race, and the two elections (one special election for the remainder of the term, and also the primary election for the full term beginning next January) for the state's sole House seat. Senator Murkowski not only easily made it onto the general election ballot (the top four vote-getters will advance) but actually is in first place, beating the Trump acolyte by over five points (note: all results here are "as of this writing," with only an estimated 70 percent of the vote counted). This bodes well for her in November, obviously.
But the truly stunning results came out of the two House races (for the same seat). In the "top 4" primary, Democrat Mary Peltola currently stands four points ahead of Republican Sarah Palin, and over eight points up on Republican Nick Begich. Tara Sweeney is currently in fourth place, but she has such a small percentage of the vote (3.7 percent) that it's conceivable (although admittedly unlikely, as the fifth-place candidate only has 0.6 percent) that she might not make it onto the November ballot. The upshot of all this? Yes, you heard that correctly -- a Democrat is leading the race for Don Young's House seat in Alaska.
This gets even more jaw-dropping in the results for the special election. The primary for this one had already been held, as I wrote yesterday, and the results for the top four candidates were:
27.0 percent -- Sarah Palin (R)
19.1 -- Nick Begich III (R)
12.6 -- Al Gross (Ind.)
10.1 -- Mary Peltola (D)
One thing I wasn't aware of (as I didn't come across it in my less-than-stellar research effort yesterday) is that Al Gross is more of a "leans towards Democrats" independent than a true independent. So his quick exit from the race (he ended his campaign and didn't even appear on the ballot even though he had the right to be there) makes at least some sense -- he likely dropped out to clear the "not-Republican" field for Peltola, despite actually getting more votes than her. I still have no idea if this is true or not -- Gross gave no public reason for dropping out -- but it's at least understandable, if true.
Now let's look at the results from last night (as of this writing):
38.0 percent -- 58,614 votes -- Mary Peltola
31.9 -- 49,190 -- Sarah Palin
28.5 -- 43,968 -- Nick Begich
1.5 -- 2,278 -- all write-in candidates
Peltola is up over Palin by an impressive six points. All three candidates did better than they did in the primary, but the difference in Peltola's numbers was astounding. Palin bettered her numbers by just under five percent. Begich did almost nine-and-a-half points better. But Peltola beat her primary numbers by almost 28 percent. As I said, "stunning" doesn't even begin to describe it.
A couple of things are going to have to happen before the race will be decided, and it could take a couple weeks for any final results to be announced. First, they've got to count all the remaining votes which were cast as of last night (the other 30 percent of them, in other words). Second, they've got to count the mail-in votes which arrived after Election Day (but which were postmarked by Election Day). And third, the ranked-choice voting system has to play out.
Right now a total of 154,000 votes have been counted. This means there are still roughly 65,000 votes left to count. Which could theoretically change the positioning of the candidates. But Peltola's lead over Palin is wider than Palin's lead over Begich, so it would be more likely that second and third place switches than either one of them knocking Peltola out of first.
Which is really the one scenario I didn't even bother to explore yesterday. It just seemed too farfetched, after Peltola's rather dismal showing in the primary. But here we are. The question is now: Which candidate will wind up in third place, and who did their voters mark down as their second choice? Because it seems obvious that this is what is going to determine the ultimate outcome.
If the ranking stays the same -- Peltola, Palin, Begich -- then Peltola is going to have a much better chance of winning the race, it seems to me. If the ranking switches to Peltola, Begich, Palin, though, then Begich might actually wind up winning.
The write-in votes, as expected, are not going to be a real factor. There just aren't enough of them. But with Palin and Begich both in the close neighborhood of 30 percent, this means almost a third of the votes will be reallocated to determine the final victor. That's a lot of votes, and it could go either way. As I wrote yesterday:
As voters have found in other places this system has been implemented, second choices really matter (and third and fourth choices, if the ballot is long enough). If you're a Republican who isn't very enamored with Sarah Palin, you'll likely vote for Begich. But who will you put down for a second choice? How anti-Palin are you? Will you vote for a Democrat to keep Sarah out of office?
But yesterday I didn't even consider what would happen if Palin was in third place and was bumped from the final round of tallying. What did Palin's voters put down for a second choice? She reportedly -- in some sort of anti-ranked-choice-voting fit of pique -- told her followers to "only vote for Palin and nobody else." If a large portion of her voters actually followed her advice, this would mean that their votes would get completely thrown out for the final tally. Through the voters' own choice, mind you -- this is nothing nefarious, it is just how the system works. If you don't put down a second choice and your first choice doesn't make it, then it is the same as if you never voted.
Putting that aside, though, one would think that Palin's voters might be a lot more open to voting for Begich as their second choice than Peltola. Begich, after all, is still a Republican -- and Begich never spurred the personal antipathy that Palin still does with many voters (even Republicans). So the Republican Party might only hold onto this seat if Sarah Palin comes in third place -- which is kind of ironic (at least to me).
Begich voters might be more inclined to vote for "anyone but Sarah Palin" for their second choice, however. So if he remains in third place, it would probably be a lot easier for Peltola to win. She wouldn't even need half of his votes to get her over the 50-percent finish line. As the vote count stands, Peltola is up over Palin by 9,424 votes. So Palin has to make up that gap and then split the difference with Peltola -- a much higher bar than Peltola faces.
The political media largely yawned at the Alaska House races, which seems kind of strange to me. Granted, the big race of the night was in Wyoming, where Representative Liz Cheney went down in flaming glory. And even in Alaska the Senate race was seen as a bigger deal, as Murkowski was the first Republican senator to date to face her voters after voting to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment. And, as always, please note that this entire article is pure speculation and could easily be proven wrong by subsequent events (as indeed yesterday's already has been).
But even so -- the fact that the Democrat in the race is winning in both the primary and the special election seems worthy of more attention than it has been getting this morning. Maybe it'll become bigger news when the final count of last night is posted, or when the final round of ranked-choice tallying actually happens.
To me, the whole situation is downright mind-blowing. By early next month, a Democrat could sit in the House of Representatives to speak for the people of Alaska, for the first time since 1972 -- when Nick Begich's grandfather (or "Nick Begich I") held the seat. In a year where most had predicted a gigantic "red wave" for the midterms. Which is another way of saying: Mary Peltola had a very good night last night.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
FPC
Jussie
Smollett
Of
Weigantia,
I also thought the J6C heat on Dear Leader finally got to you and that you were bugging out before the first indictment landed.
That's alright, you'll surely be scarce after the Blue Wave in mere weeks.
[2]
Whenever you say Trump/America hater I automatically think GotFacism? Not the best look. As if you cared.
Dunno why you're cheering the Martyrdom of Liz Cheney. Winning her Primary would have lessened her cred as the non-Facist Repug. In fact, I fear a future Cheney-Kinsinger ticket. Discounting crossover Dems, in deep red Wyoming Cheney still polled 25% as the main Repug trying to put Trump in jail! Underwhelming!
[3]
President Trump has now effectively ended 3 political dynasties...
Clinton...
Bush....
Cheney...
:D
Suck it, Democrats!!! :D
You forgot the Obamas. All four families were worthless caretakers of the Reagan Revolution that has trashed America for 40 years now. Hillary losing was the best thing that could happen to Progressivism, says this Bernie Bro.
On topic...
I'm not quite as surprised by these results as are you.
J6C, Dobbs and Dem legislative successes portend a Blue Wave...and indictments of sitting Republican Congresscritters hasn't even started yet!
Y'all remember how bad the Repugs got stomped in 1974 and 1976, post-Watergate? This will be worse. You heard it here first.
But inflation!
And Hunter Biden's laptop!
Elizabeth, count me in for fave albums this Sunday ~2000 Left Coast Time!
Repugs are effed up, campaigning on,
Fear
Firearms
Fundamentalism
Facism
What's not to like, JSOW?
Repugs are effed up,
campaigning on
Fear
Firearms
Fundamentalism
Facism
What's not to like, JSOW?
I know. I shouldn't join in the clubbing the baby seal party, so here:
Black Hole Sun. (4:36)
All better?
Caddy[4],
Excellent! It'll be fun with just the two of us ... :)
END OF WATCH
Police Officer Cesar Echaverry
Miami-Dade Police Department, Florida
End of Watch: Wednesday, August 17, 2022
And remind the few...
When ill of us they speak..
That we are all that stands between..
The monsters and the weak...
MC,
RE your Jussie Smollett comparison.. The facts do not support it..
First off, Smollett is a quintessential Democrat.. That's the first big difference..
Secondly, Smollett made up attacks that NEVER happened..
It's well documented as FACT that Vick DID in fact, attack my wife and family in the most heinous and disgusting manner..
It's ALSO a FACT that Vick tried to extort me into silence.. Even Jean Luc called her on it and told her it was no bueno...
Either of those actions would have caused Vick to be banned in any reasonable and reality-based forum where the moderator was NOT suffering from PTDS and Trump/America hate..
But, of course, this moderator here IS suffering from PTDS and Trump/America hate so he let such egregious slide.. All is acceptable no matter how low and disgusting and perverted as long as it directed against the Right people..
So, as usual, in druggie scumbag fashion, you are factually 1000% full of kaa-kaa..
This is fact...
Once again, yer bitch-slapped.. :D
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Even Left Wing water carriers concede that the Inflation Reduction Act will do NOTHING to reduce inflation!
MSNBC, ABC, CNN realize Inflation Reduction Act doesn’t reduce inflation after bill is passed: ‘Marketing’
CNN's John Harwood admitted the bills name was a 'marketing ploy' after it was passed
https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-abc-cnn-realize-inflation-reduction-act-doesnt-reduce-inflation-after-bill-passed-marketing
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
It's like with Democrats and their Global Warming con..
It's *ALL* about the marketing..
Here's a free clue for moron Democrats..
If you have to "market" your science, it's ain't REAL science...
That goes for climate science as well as economic science..
But that's ya'all's Democrat Party today..
NOTHING about facts or reality.. It's all about spin and marketing...
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ooops.. A bit out o' practice.. Reposted for clarity...
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Even Left Wing water carriers concede that the Inflation Reduction Act will do NOTHING to reduce inflation!
MSNBC, ABC, CNN realize Inflation Reduction Act doesn’t reduce inflation after bill is passed: ‘Marketing’
CNN's John Harwood admitted the bills name was a 'marketing ploy' after it was passed
https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-abc-cnn-realize-inflation-reduction-act-doesnt-reduce-inflation-after-bill-passed-marketing
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
It's like with Democrats and their Global Warming con..
It's *ALL* about the marketing..
Here's a free clue for moron Democrats..
If you have to "market" your science, it's ain't REAL science...
That goes for climate science as well as economic science..
But that's ya'all's Democrat Party today..
NOTHING about facts or reality.. It's all about spin and marketing...
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
MC,
So, as usual, in druggie scumbag fashion, you are factually 1000% full of kaa-kaa..
This is fact...
Once again, yer bitch-slapped.. :D
This is the part where you going whining and crying to Vick to protect you...
BBBBBWWWWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
How did you get to be such a luser, MC?? Sitting alone, no one that cares about you.. Just a grumpy old America hating moron.. Was it the drugs??? Are you so drugged up and useless that yer just a shell of a man???
Is that it??
Here is ya'all's hero... :D
Cheney's loss may be the second worst for a House incumbent in 60 years
(CNN)The surprising story out of Tuesday's Republican House primary in Wyoming wasn't that Rep. Liz Cheney lost. The pre-election polls all showed her losing handily to eventual winner Harriet Hageman.
The big news from the Cowboy State was her margin of defeat. Cheney's loss is one of the biggest on record for a House incumbent and is part of a pattern this primary season pointing to former President Donald Trump's strength within the Republican Party.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/politics/liz-cheney-worst-defeat-house-incumbent/index.html
President Trump flexes his muscles and Liz bites the big one!!!
BBBBBWWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Once again, Democrats back the wrong horse and have their asses handed to them!! :D
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Beyond Cheney
Cheney's loss wasn't the only historic defeat this primary season.
GOP Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina, who also voted to impeach Trump, got blown out in his primary in June. He pulled in a mere 24.6% of the vote while losing to Russell Fry. That percentage appears to be the worst performance for a House incumbent in a partisan primary with just one incumbent running since 1992.
Indeed, all six House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and ran for reelection faced tough battles. Four of them (including Cheney and Rice) lost their primaries, which is extremely unusual. Just 2% of other House Republicans who have run for reelection this season have lost primaries, and those defeated lawmakers were either scandal-plagued or lost to a fellow incumbent because of redistricting.
Perhaps, more notable is that none of the aforementioned six impeachment-backing Republicans got a majority of votes cast for GOP candidates in their primaries. Since 1956, House incumbents have averaged more than 90% of the primary vote.
All of these historical anomalies related to those who voted to impeach Trump help us understand Trump's strength with the Republican Party today.
President Trump..
STILL kicking Democrats' and Trump/America haters' asses!!!! :D
This is about as funny as back when ya'all swore up and down that Texas was gonna turn blue!!
BBBBBWWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Voters rebuke establishment in Cheney annihilation
The outcome was about more than Trump vs. Cheney
Liz Cheney’s annihilation was a stunning rejection of our incompetent out-of-touch politicians – and anti-Trump Republican cry-babies should beware.
Outgoing US Representative Liz Cheney didn’t just lose her congressional seat in the state’s Republican primary on Tuesday.
She got annihilated. She lost two-to-one. In numbers, that’s 66.3% to 28.9%.
Much will be made of former President Donald Trump’s successful quest to dislodge the po-faced Cheney. But onlookers should see the vote for what it is: A stunning rejection of the incompetent and abusive political establishment.
Plenty of Beltway Republicans are terrible. What makes Cheney different is her near-perfect embodiment of the political machine.
That ultimately is what got her fired by Wyoming voters -- and ought to be a warning to other GOP crybabies who whine about the New Right Trump has created.
https://supermacro.substack.com/p/voters-rebuke-establishment-in-cheney
America is Trump Country... Pure and simple.. :D
Remember a year ago when Basement Biden said the US would stay in Afghanistan until ALL Americans were out??
One year ago, Biden promised to 'stay' in Afghanistan until 'all' Americans got out. He didn't keep his word
Hundreds of Americans were stranded in Afghanistan after Biden withdrew last US troops
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/one-year-biden-promised-stay-afghanistan-all-americans-out-broke-promise
Of course, Basement Biden lied..
Funny how ya'all don't care about lies except if it's a GOP'er that's "lying"...
Hypocrisy.. It's not a bug in Democrat programming. It's a feature..
:eyeroll:
Hundreds of Americans have been evacuated from Afghanistan and thousands of Afghan allies remain since President Biden broke his promise – which he made one year ago, today – to keep military boots on the ground until we "get them all out."
On Aug. 18, 2021, three days after the Taliban seized the capital of Kabul and forced the U.S. Embassy there to evacuate, Biden told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that intelligence did not indicate that a Taliban takeover was likely, despite numerous reports to the contrary. The president also said the U.S. military would "stay" in Afghanistan until all Americans and Afghan allies were evacuated.
"If there's American citizens left, we're gonna stay to get them all out," Biden said at the time.
"Are you committed to making sure that the troops stay until every American who wants to be out is out?" Stephanopoulos asked the president.
"Yes," Biden responded.
Basement Biden lied.. And Americans died...
This is fact...
Eight days later, during the U.S. military's mass evacuation at the Kabul airport on Aug. 26, 2021, suicide bombers killed 183 people, including 13 U.S. service members. The U.S. retaliated by launching two drone strikes against suspected ISIS-K terrorists, one of which ended up killing 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children.
That's yer Basement Biden, people... Killing innocent civilians and allowing 13 brave American troops to be killed..
How anyone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together can vote for a moron like Basement Biden... ????
Well, that's just one of the mysteries of the universe.. :eyeroll:
And what about Basement Biden's incompetent CD&GC???
CDC Director Walensky to reorganize agency after admitting Covid pandemic response fell short
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky acknowledged the agency’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic fell short.
Walensky has launched a reorganization to act more swiftly in the face of public health threats.
The organizational changes are focused on sharing data more quickly and making public health guidance easier for people to understand.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/cdc-admits-covid-response-fell-short-launches-reorganization.html
What *IS* it about Democrat run agencies that they are just so frakin' incompetent??
Is incompetency ANOTHER Democrat trait?? Like hypocrisy???
Speaking of incompetent run Democrat agencies..
https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/918/516/cartoon-081822-copy.jpg?ve=1&tl=1
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Looks like SCOTUS wannabee Garland is helping President Trump's campaign!!! :D
Ya just GOTTA love it, eh!!??? :D
White teachers would be laid off first under Minnesota teachers contract
Minneapolis public school teachers of color will have additional job protections this upcoming school year under a new contract that would allow them to keep their jobs rather than white instructors with more seniority.
The labor agreement’s intent was to protect “underrepresented populations” and keep the district’s predominantly white staff from becoming more homogenous, a report said Monday.
https://nypost.com/2022/08/16/white-minnesota-teachers-would-be-laid-off-first-under-new-contract/
Democrat Party...
STILL the Racist Party.. :eyeroll:
And here's a political parody of Yesterday (4:04) from Randy Rainbow.
@caddy,
this is not necessarily directed at you in particular, but i generally don't like name-calling. y'know, beyond just the illogic of ad hominem argumentation, calling people names who aren't public figures just isn't productive ...
@m,
if this particular wave of illogic is going to wash over us and seep back into the tides of time, that means we all need to distinguish more clearly between attacks on democratic public officials and plain old voters who happen to register D. and fellow commentators who happen to cross the line between general insults against a political brand and personal insults against individuals.
https://youtu.be/CxhifGxniYg
JL
JL,
that means we all need to distinguish more clearly between attacks on democratic public officials and plain old voters who happen to register D. and fellow commentators who happen to cross the line between general insults against a political brand and personal insults against individuals.
... AND dragging deceased mothers and wives, children and grandchildren into a flame war... :^/
.... Something that is frowned upon in every other civilized forum on the internet..
:eyeroll:
Agreed
I also agree with that and I don't like the juvenile name-calling, either. It just makes the commenter sound like a bloody two-year old. And, yes, I know that is an insult to two-year-olds everywhere so, you know what, let's just leave the description at asinine and juvenile.
Is there anyone here who wishes to continue to behave as an asinine juvenile?
... AND dragging deceased mothers and wives, children and grandchildren into a flame war... :^/
For the record, YOU were the one who dragged your deceased mother into the a flame war when you admitted that she had drank too much during her pregnancy with you.
I offered up what I believed was nothing more than an outlandish "either/or" situation to show how your stupidity is of your own choosing. You were the one who claimed I was attacking your deceased mother (was it liver failure, by chance?). There was no way I could have known that you'd admit that your stupidity was due to the fact that you suffered from fecal alcohol syndrome -- which resulted from her drinking too much during her pregnancy with you.
I'll also remind everyone that you are the only person here to take the flame war beyond insults and to actually make threats to harm another person's family member. You are the only one who has made a threat that required action being taken with the victim's local law enforcement and local prosecutors to alert them of the threat.
You are the only one stupid enough to threaten to commit a criminal act in the attempt to hurt the career of an innocent member of law enforcement whose only crime was being married to someone who exposed your lies. So please, tell me again how words can hurt your feelings?
It's well documented as FACT that Vick DID in fact, attack my wife and family in the most heinous and disgusting manner..
And what, exactly, was that "most heinous and disgusting manner.."? Repeating what you had said regarding them? Using your own words against you?
Sticks and stones, little boy.
Either of those actions would have caused Vick to be banned in any reasonable and reality-based forum where the moderator was NOT suffering from PTDS and Trump/America hate..
Says the POS that threatened to file a false police report against in an attempt to destroy the career of an innocent member of law enforcement who happened to be married to someone who exposed your lies.
YOU think Kick repeating what you posted about your own family members deserves her being banned from this site? So what action do you think should result from ACTUAL THREATS?!?!
PLEASE CW, I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS!
"If there's American citizens left, we're gonna stay to get them all out," Biden said at the time.
"Are you committed to making sure that the troops stay until every American who wants to be out is out?" Stephanopoulos asked the president.
"Yes," Biden responded.
Basement Biden lied.. And Americans died...
The only Americans that were left in Afghanistan when the military pulled out were ones that chose to stay there. Biden didn't lie. The 13 service members who lost their lives were killed by a suicide bomber.
The problem is not enough pie...
Michale
10
RE your Jussie Smollett comparison.. The facts do not support it..
Yes, they do, Jussie "Michale" Smollett."
First off, Smollett is a quintessential Democrat.. That's the first big difference..
Prove it.
Secondly, Smollett made up attacks that NEVER happened..
Smollett did what you threatened to do to Russ, Jussie Smollet of Weigantia.
It's well documented as FACT that Vick DID in fact, attack my wife and family in the most heinous and disgusting manner..
I agree your attacks were "heinous and disgusting," and that's precisely why I threw them right back in your face. If you think the attacks I threw back in your direction were actually meant for your wife, then you're the dumbest commenter on this forum.
It's ALSO a FACT that Vick tried to extort me into silence.. Even Jean Luc called her on it and told her it was no bueno...
Bullshit. I told you if you kept posting lies about me that I would post the facts about you. What I was actually doing was reeling you in and basically requesting that you cry more, you daft prick, and you definitely did not disappoint. You're still butthurt and making up bullshit after all these years, and that pleases me greatly.
Either of those actions would have caused Vick to be banned in any reasonable and reality-based forum where the moderator was NOT suffering from PTDS and Trump/America hate..
You're tired of having your ass kicked, we understand, but that's your own fault for providing a massive target. Trump isn't America, and the "moderator" isn't as dumb as you keep making him out to be.
But, of course, this moderator here IS suffering from PTDS and Trump/America hate so he let such egregious slide.. All is acceptable no matter how low and disgusting and perverted as long as it directed against the Right people..
You are quite obviously the only one here suffering and demonstrably terminally butthurt, and every time you post this monotonous bullshit of yours, you're providing the verification that proves it. :)
ListenWhenYouHear
29
Dead on accurate, Russ.
I'll also remind everyone that you are the only person here to take the flame war beyond insults and to actually make threats to harm another person's family member.
That is a provable fact. And who else got his ass kicked so hard up between his shoulders that he told another poster to kill themselves? You guessed it: Michale.
You are the only one who has made a threat that required action being taken with the victim's local law enforcement and local prosecutors to alert them of the threat.
Fact!
You are the only one stupid enough to threaten to commit a criminal act in the attempt to hurt the career of an innocent member of law enforcement whose only crime was being married to someone who exposed your lies. So please, tell me again how words can hurt your feelings?
You have characterized Michale the felonious moron perfectly, Russ.
Love you. :)