Contemplating Liz Cheney's Next Act
I've resisted writing about it until now (mostly because everyone else was doing such a swell job of it) but it now seems almost obligatory to chime in on Liz Cheney's next move. What everyone's been talking about, of course, was her concession speech after spectacularly losing the Wyoming Republican primary to keep her House seat. In it, Cheney promised she wasn't done on the national stage yet, which most people interpreted as at least dipping a toe in the waters of a presidential run. Which brings us to the question of what purpose she would hope to accomplish by such a run.
She's not going to get elected president. That much is just about absolutely certain. She could run as a Republican against Trump (and the rest of the field), and she would lose in the primaries -- again, probably pretty spectacularly. She could run as an independent, and she would again lose (in the general election), although she may prove to be a "spoiler" who throws the race in one direction or another (such as H. Ross Perot or Ralph Nader). That would be the most she could even hope to achieve. Perot got 19 percent of the popular vote, which won him exactly zero electors, after all.
But maybe that's the point. Because Cheney's campaign would be nothing short of an all-out crusade. She would be running not to win but for the specific purpose of denying Donald Trump the presidency. That would really be the only plank in her campaign platform. Oh sure, she'd stand foursquare for all the things Republicans used to deeply care about (or at least say they did) and she'd give lots of optimistic statements about her chances of winning, but all this would be largely immaterial. Her campaign slogan would still essentially be: "Stop Trump!"
The high point of her campaign, no matter which route she chooses, would be facing Donald Trump on a debate stage. Whether she faced him in a crowd of Republican candidates or with only Joe Biden also onstage matters a great deal in the amount of time she'd have to make her case, but I doubt it'll matter much for her electoral prospects.
The risk for Cheney running as a Republican is that she may just get frozen out of any debates. Republicans have already signalled that they want complete control over the 2024 Republican primary debate presentations (for instance, they will likely only happen on Fox News and other far-right media), so rewriting the rules at the last minute to keep Cheney off the stage would be a pretty easy thing to do. They could draw the bar for participation just above wherever Cheney stood. They could even single her out and say "she's not a Republican anymore" due to her home state's Republican Party essentially excommunicating her. If the Republican National Committee chooses this route, at least they wouldn't also have to cut off other Republican candidates from participation (Cheney most likely won't be the only one polling in the low single digits, in other words).
Even if the R.N.C. doesn't blatantly stick its thumb on the scale, Donald Trump could always just announce he won't appear on any stage with Cheney on it. Then the R.N.C. would face the choice of either holding debates with all the non-Trump candidates, or just booting Cheney to get Trump to show up -- which seems like a pretty easy choice for them.
If Cheney ran as an independent (perhaps launching the official "Never Trump Party"), she would have a better chance of appearing on a stage with Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But even in this case, Trump could always just refuse to participate. He's backed out of debates before.
Maybe this is all too pessimistic. Perhaps Trump will relish the chance to scream over Cheney and not let her get a word in edgewise. Maybe he thinks he can provide more entertaining television than her. Cheney on a debate stage with Trump would be worth the price of admission, that's for sure, no matter which one you were personally rooting for. It'd be one heckuva show.
If it was a fair debate -- meaning one where Trump's microphone was cut off while others were speaking, as a minimum -- Cheney might just eviscerate Trump. She has shown the ability to not only not mince words but also keep the rapt attention of her audience, in her appearances co-chairing the House Select Committee on January 6th. She has also shown she is unafraid of forcefully saying exactly what she thinks of Trump in a very public setting. Seeing her face off with Trump would be an interesting spectacle, that's for sure.
Trump, of course, will be doing his standard debate shtick. Yell as loudly as possible, veer off subject constantly, hurl the most scathing insults he can come up with, and generally beclown himself (while thinking to himself how brilliant he was being).
If it were a GOP primary debate, Cheney would have limited time to speak (depending on how many other candidates were on the stage) and it would turn into a real brawl -- most likely along the lines of: "Liz Cheney versus everybody else." In a general election debate (as an independent), Cheney would have one-third of the speaking time. She'd be able to more fully present her case (her case being: "Electing Donald Trump president would be dangerous!").
But even given a spectacular debate performance or two, what would be the likely result? In the Republican primaries, probably not all that much. If Trump does announce his run early, it will likely scare off all his acolytes and at least partially clear the field -- but it won't scare off all of them. Ron DeSantis seems determined to run whether Trump is in the race or not, just to name one. It may keep people like Nikki Haley and perhaps Mike Pompeo out of the race, but there'll be others (governors, senators, etc.) who will feel bold enough to give it a shot even with Trump running.
But those aren't really the important candidates to consider. Because there are at least two anti-Trump Republicans who also seem determined to run: Chris Christie and Larry Hogan. There may be others, as well, but they seem like the two most prominent Republicans considering a run who would be unafraid to take on Trump. So Liz Cheney, if she runs, won't have the "anti-Trump" lane to herself. Perhaps Christie or Hogan would back her in a debate brawl, but otherwise they'd be running hard against each other to become the clear "not-Trump" alternative.
The Republican Party as a whole made a fatal error in 2016 -- they never did present a single "not-Trump" candidate to the voters. There were just too many of them in the race. They split the vote so effectively that Trump walked away with the nomination despite only winning about 35 percent of most of the states' primary vote. Even though that's a low number, it was still higher than everyone else's, so Trump wound up with the lion's share of the delegates.
That could easily happen again, unless one strong Republican candidate emerges from the pack very early and gets enough support to directly challenge Trump. The only possibility right now is Ron DeSantis, but that could change (we are a long ways away from any of this actually happening, and anything and everything could happen between now and then).
Cheney emerging from the pack as the sole "not-Trump" candidate is pretty farfetched. First she'd have to vanquish Christie and Hogan and anyone else in the "anti-Trump" lane, and then she'd have to start pulling more votes than DeSantis (or whichever other candidate is running second). That's not just a high hill to climb, it's an absolute mountain.
What makes a lot more sense is Cheney running as an independent. She could probably raise enough money to get her name on the ballot in all 50 states (which is an absolutely monumental task), and as a third-party candidate she might indeed actually achieve her goal of denying the presidency to Donald Trump. Also, as an independent, Cheney wouldn't have to waste any time fighting with her own party -- which would be almost inevitable if she runs as a Republican.
If Biden is in good health and runs, Democratic voters will likely be pretty solidly behind him. Perhaps a few disgruntled voters might switch to voting for Cheney, but seeing as how Cheney is actually extremely far right in her politics, this would probably be a pretty minimal amount. But how many Republican voters are just too exhausted by Trump and don't want to see him win? Rather than actually voting for Biden, Cheney would give them a protest vote they could live with. If she could drain even just five percent of Trump's GOP support in the general election, that might be enough to flip several important states -- or at least allow Biden to win a lot easier in them. And five percent of Republicans seems achievable for Cheney in the general election. She could indeed be the perfect spoiler.
It is interesting to speculate about, that's for sure. But even after the frenzy of articles I've read about Cheney's possible presidential ambitions, I'm not entirely convinced she would go this route. I usually allow for pretty far-fetched situations in contemplating future events, but I must admit that at this point in time I just cannot see any path to Liz Cheney actually becoming president.
Liz Cheney not only burned her bridges with the Republican Party, she absolutely napalmed them. She has made herself Trump Target Number One, and she has stood up to everything he's thrown at her. She has never backed down an inch from her firm belief that the United States Constitution is far more important than her political party -- which (to be polite) is not the prevailing thinking in the Republican Party today. She could easily launch a presidential crusade against Trump, but doing so would only make her a bigger target for the MAGA crowd.
Or she could just set up a political operation and try to do the same thing from behind the scenes. Or she could take the easy way out and just sign a fat contract with some television network to be a political commentator. That way she'd get her face on television a lot more than even a presidential campaign would offer, and she wouldn't have to do anywhere near the same amount of work.
The only thing that seems certain is that Liz Cheney's not going to disappear. She's going to be around for years, in one capacity or another. Upon reflection, I would bet that the question of whether she runs for president to deny Trump a victory will come down to the level of animosity she feels towards him. If she personally thinks that: (1) he is the biggest danger facing America right now, and (2) she alone has the best chance of defeating him; then she'll probably run. If she feels she could be more effective elsewhere, then she probably won't. I'll admit, that's a pretty weak prediction, but hey, the 2024 election is still more than two years away. Like I said, anything could happen in the meantime.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
She'd certainly make an interesting president if it ever happened.
You seem to take it as given that Biden will run again and get the nomination and Democrats will be happy to support him. I think I'm not the only person who is impressed with his accomplishments but think he is too old to run for a second term.
All of these what does this mean for Cheney? write ups are a waste of bytes.
They'd be premature even if the rest of her body of J6C work was known and proved even more stellar than the first eight episodes.
Get a grip -- 2024 is light years away! And 2022 is by no means a done deal this far out.
Everyone still assumes Trump somehow remains unindicted and at large. But by this time that's not a possibility (take your pick: DoJ, IRS,Georgia, New York and there's more!)
If they're are a lot of Kamala sightings over the next year we'll know that Joe not running is at least a possibility. He's doing fine so far, no?
Cheney's political martyrdom is complete and she is the most prominent of the Nevers, ready to do cleanup on Aisle Trump the moment the fever finally breaks. If not 2024, than soon enough because Trumpism isn't sustainable.
Post-Trump, a Cheney-Kinsinger ticket would be quite formidable.
Trump and his Supremes...
boosting Democratic turnout twelve ways.
andygaus,
I think I'm not the only person who is impressed with his accomplishments but think he is too old to run for a second term.
Oh, I'm quite sure you're not.
Okay, so we can agree that Cheney won't be nominated to run for president as a Republican, assuming Trump is the nominee.
Can we all also agree that if she ran for president as an Independent then she would hardly be denying Trump a second term. More likely the opposite, in fact, in true Nader fashion. Ahem.
Why would she even consider running for president, especially after being thoroughly trounced in her primary by a ... how shall we say ... less than seasoned opponent?
I am told the reason would be her ego with the liberal media urging her on. Which tells us all we need to know about Cheney and the liberal media.
If they're are a lot of Kamala sightings over the next year we'll know that Joe not running is at least a possibility.
If Dems pin their hopes on Kamala, all is lost.
Caddy,
...because Trumpism isn't sustainable.
How do you figure that?
[8]
Can we all also agree that if she ran for president as an Independent then she would hardly be denying Trump a second term. More likely the opposite, in fact, in true Nader fashion. Ahem.
No, we do not agree. Do you really think Liz Cheney would pull anything close to as many Democratic voters as she would Republican voters? She's the Daughter of Darth, for Pete's sake.
Trumpism isn't sustainable because of all of the damage he's done, the fact that people are dead, injured and incarcerated because of Trump and, if that wasn't enough, because Trump is going to spend the rest of his life in court.
Trump managed to lose the Presidency, the House and the Senate for the Repugs.
So that's another reason it cannot last.
Russ,
For the record, YOU were the one who dragged your deceased mother into the a flame war when you admitted that she had drank too much during her pregnancy with you.
As usual, you are lying completely and utterly without ANY facts to back up your claim..
And, once again Russ proves what an absolute dickhead he is by, once again, making personal attacks on my late mother..
And once again, such disgusting and perverted attacks are ignored by the Weigantian® moderator and other commenters...
This is why Weigantia® has become the shithole it is today.. :(
You are the only one stupid enough to threaten to commit a criminal act in the attempt to hurt the career of an innocent member of law enforcement whose only crime was being married to someone who exposed your lies.
Except that your "Devon" doesn't even exist.. It's even likely that you are lying about being gay...
The simple fact that you didn't know what constitutes an "assault" AND you thought that LEOs were "commissioned" officers when, in fact, LEOs are "sworn" officers proves beyond ANY doubt that you are lying about your associations with cops..
The only Americans that were left in Afghanistan when the military pulled out were ones that chose to stay there.
Not factually accurate. It's well documented that HUNDREDS of Americans who WANT to leave Afghanistan have not been able to..
The 13 service members who lost their lives were killed by a suicide bomber.
Killed by a suicide bomber that Basement Biden had released from US custody a week before...
Basement Biden is responsible for all those Americans death..
This is documented FACT..
Your president is a moron, Russ.. Just like you...
PLEASE CW, I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS!
Yes.. I would also like to know why the Weigantian® moderator condones such disgusting personal attacks on a commenters deceased mother and a commenter's lovely wife and children and grandchildren...
It seems a simple task to state for the record that attacks on commenters' families is off limits and will result in at LEAST a yellow card, if not an outright ban...
The fact that such a rule has to be stated is indicative of how disgustingly low certain commenters have sunk..
The problem is not enough pie...
No..
The problem is that these disgusting attacks on commenters' family members, both alive and departed, is condoned (by silence) by other Weigantians®..
THAT is the problem..
Somebody is really channeling their inner Snowflake this morning.
Caddy,
No, we do not agree. Do you really think Liz Cheney would pull anything close to as many Democratic voters as she would Republican voters? She's the Daughter of Darth, for Pete's sake.
Well, I wasn't thinking she would pull any Republicans who voted for Trump, number one.
And, number two, I was thinking that she would pull a lot of Republicans who voted for Biden.
I wasn't thinking about Democratic voters at all. (Do I have to worry about THEM!!!???)
Do we know or have a sense of how many Republicans voted for Biden in 2020, while holding their noses or whatever it was they needed to do in order to pull that lever for him?
I was thinking of another previous scenario where Nader helped Bush win.
Uncle Jussie, JSoW, or WoJS, whichever you like best...
Except that your "Devon" doesn't even exist.. It's even likely that you are lying about being gay...
So this is your response? Just throwing the first thing that came to mind out there without bothering to think it through? SO I guess your mom isn't real, nor are your wife and children? You are just some troll living alone in your basement apartment with a bunch of cats? Geez, even Trump could have come up with a better defense than this.
We actually just celebrated 19 years together this month. While he's still the man of my dreams... he definitely isn't imaginary!
But if he was, then you would be making threats against someone that doesn't exist. You'd be filing a false police report against an imaginary person. Still a threat, still a crime... and it would make the comparison to Jussie even more perfect!
The simple fact that you didn't know what constitutes an "assault"...
I don't know what constitutes an "assault"?? So you're gonna what, show me the definition of "assault" firsthand? Are you threatening to teach me what it means to be assaulted? Geez, making another online threat, you really are an idiot!
Yeah, he's an idiot.
But if he insulted me face to face I'd bitchslap his as around the block a couple of times.
Too bad that no SENTIENT conservative hangs out down here, besides C.R.Stucki
I wasn't thinking about Democratic voters at all. (Do I have to worry about THEM!!!???)
When it comes to Democratic voters who think Biden is too old, I guess I do ... have to worry about them. ;)
Michale
14
And, once again Russ proves what an absolute dickhead he is by, once again, making personal attacks on my late mother..
It's beyond hysterical that you keep making the asinine claim that anybody on this forum is actually attacking your parent. Heh. Believe me when I tell you that you're the only one on the forum who's got a fixation with your mother.
And once again, such disgusting and perverted attacks are ignored by the Weigantian® moderator and other commenters...
Translation: "Help me, CW! Help me, somebody... anybody!"
You should definitely consider changing your forum name to "Snowflake" or "Poon"... you decide.
This is why Weigantia® has become the shithole it is today.. :(
The pity party is all yours, and so is "yer" shithole. You've thoroughly convinced me (again) it really sucks to be you.
Except that your "Devon" doesn't even exist.. It's even likely that you are lying about being gay...
Your mother definitely doesn't exist, and you can pine for Russ's "dickhead" (your term) all you want, but he's definitely not interested. I don't usually speak for MC, but I don't mind telling you he's not interested either.
The simple fact that you didn't know what constitutes an "assault" AND you thought that LEOs were "commissioned" officers when, in fact, LEOs are "sworn" officers proves beyond ANY doubt that you are lying about your associations with cops..
It takes a special kind of bone deep stupid to keep insisting that law enforcement officers aren't "commissioned." Thanks for letting everyone know you were never a commissioned law enforcement officer and nothing but a damn Mud Puppy. You going to next claim law enforcement officers aren't certified? Damn, you're certifiably ignorant regarding law enforcement who are definitely "commissioned" and "sworn" in multiple states in America, including your own.
Killed by a suicide bomber that Basement Biden had released from US custody a week before...
The right-wing propaganda machine feeds you this obvious bullshit whereupon you regurgitate it like the rube you are. It's hysterical to watch your flailing ignorance.
Yes.. I would also like to know why the Weigantian® moderator condones such disgusting personal attacks on a commenters deceased mother and a commenter's lovely wife and children and grandchildren...
I would like to know why you seriously believe that everyone else is as fixated on your personal bullshit as you are.
It seems a simple task to state for the record that attacks on commenters' families is off limits and will result in at LEAST a yellow card, if not an outright ban...
It seems a simple task to quit mewling and whining, but you can't stop yourself, and it's for that reason that you should seriously consider changing your forum name to: Pussy Galore.
ListenWhenYouHear
18
But if he was, then you would be making threats against someone that doesn't exist.
Exactly like Jussie Smollett did, which is why that's the perfect description for Michale.
You'd be filing a false police report against an imaginary person. Still a threat, still a crime... and it would make the comparison to Jussie even more perfect!
Jussie Smollett is truly Michale's twin brother from another mother... with fetal alcohol syndrome. :)