There's a special House election happening tomorrow in upstate New York that many are closely watching as a possible indicator of the strength of the abortion issue in the 2022 campaign season. The Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, has shifted the political landscape for the midterms, but nobody really knows to what extent this shift will manifest itself. The New York special election is going to be a test of this.

It won't be a definitive answer, though, much like the surprise vote in Kansas to preserve abortion rights wasn't definitive either. In most places, abortion won't be directly on the ballot in such a fashion; the voters will instead be voting for candidates for Congress and statewide office, and abortion will only be part of the puzzle.

But the New York race will certainly add a piece of data to our understanding of the political potency of the issue. David Weigel writes in today's Washington Post about the state of this race:

After the [Dobbs] decision, Democratic nominee Pat Ryan unveiled new campaign signs, white on pink, that read "CHOICE IS ON THE BALLOT." The state Democratic Party's own signs show a red slash over "Roe v. Wade" with the message: "This is what happens when YOU don't vote! Vote blue in '22!" To Ryan, the 40-year old Democratic Ulster County executive, the strategy was clear: "We're going to continue to focus on an issue that affects tens of millions of women and people and families."

When Republican Marc Molinaro heard about the court's decision -- just three weeks after he became his party's nominee in the 19th Congressional District -- he said he was surprised. "I had thought, like most Americans, that this was settled," said Molinaro, 46, as he campaigned at Monticello's annual Bagel Festival.

Now, he is campaigning on other issues he says are more pressing, such as inflation and crime. "The Supreme Court passed this issue back to the states," he said. "The states have to act. This state has acted, and broad access is preserved here in New York."

Tuesday's special election in a swing district -- coming on a busy day of primaries or runoffs in several states -- will be a closely watched preview of both major parties' midterm political strategies around abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court decision to overturn the constitutional right to end a pregnancy. It is shaping up as the last big electoral test before the November midterms of Democrats' attempts to channel anger over the decision -- and subsequent state bans on abortion -- into votes for their candidates, and of Republican efforts to keep the focus on different matters.

It should be pointed out that this is a pretty swingy district -- it went for Joe Biden in 2020 by only 1.5 points, it went for Donald Trump in 2016, and it went for Barack Obama in both '08 and '12. Before the Supreme Court weighed in, most people expected the Republican to win the district. Now, though, it's up in the air.

Molinaro, like a lot of Republicans these days, really doesn't want to talk about abortion at all. He is hoping: "Hey, this is New York, it's not going to become illegal here any time soon" will be good enough for the voters. Ryan, on the other had, is showcasing the issue in his campaign, making the argument that Molinaro opposed abortion rights when he was in the state legislature, and can be expected to do so in the U.S. House if Republicans ever try to ban abortion nationwide. That's a powerful argument these days, because that is exactly what Republicans would indeed try to do if they got control of even one chamber of Congress.

This is a largely meaningless election in terms of the power balance in Washington, it is also worth pointing out. This district is only going to exist until January -- redistricting has split it into two, and Ryan and Molinaro won't even be facing each other in November because they'll be running for different districts then. It wouldn't flip control of the House even if the Republican won (the previous holder of the seat is a Democrat who left to become lieutenant governor), so it is largely irrelevant to the overall balance of power. But it will test the proposition that Democrats can motivate voters (including new voters) to turn out to the polls on the strength of the abortion issue alone.

In many states, new voter registrations have been tilting towards women -- more women are signing up to vote than men, and not just in blue states either. Since the Dobbs decision, the issue has moved way up the scale of things voters (especially Democrats) list as the number-one issue they'll be basing their vote on. Voters (and not just women) are angry about America moving backwards rather than forwards. Women's rights are being taken away, and that enrages some voters. There's also some crossover, as Kansas proved -- a certain percentage of Republican voters disagreed with the Dobbs decision.

It is still way too soon to tell how many people will be voting solely on the issue of abortion, though. Nobody knows how big a "single-issue vote" there is going to be, to put this another way. But even if it's just in the mix of other issues voters are thinking about when they enter the ballot box, it is now a very important issue. That much seems obvious.

Will it carry the day for Pat Ryan? We'll have to see, tomorrow. This isn't a very representative election in many ways -- it is happening in August (New York usually votes in June primaries, but the redistricting legal fight pushed it out), and it is a special election, which would normally have a very small turnout to begin with. The district will cease to exist inside of half a year. And both candidates will be running again in November, in neighboring districts. So it can't be called a bellwether for the whole country by a long shot.

But no matter which way things go tomorrow, a lot of people are still going to be watching. A come-from-behind victory for the Democrat is going to make a lot of Republican candidates out there very nervous indeed. Except for the most fervent, many Republican candidates really don't want to talk about abortion at all and wish it would just somehow disappear as an issue. But with Roe gone, that's simply not possible anymore. Democrats have framed the issue as one of freedom -- Republicans want to take away freedoms, Democrats are fighting to preserve them. This is largely why most Republicans really don't want to talk about it, because deep down they know this is correct.

Even if the Democrat pulls off a healthy win tomorrow, it still will be impossible to say whether the abortion issue is going to be potent enough to fend off the expected red wave in November. The Senate landscape is looking a lot better for Democrats, but that is mostly due to Republican primary voters picking some absolute doozies for their nominees. In the House, it will (as always) be fought district by district. So tomorrow's results, no matter how good or bad for Democrats they turn out to be, are not going to provide the final answer and may not be replicated elsewhere (at least not to the degree the pundits will quickly predict, if the Democrat wins).

But it still is an interesting test of the strategy: "Let's make my campaign completely centered around the issue of women's rights and abortion." Many other Democrats have already begun putting this theory into action, especially in swing districts with a lot of suburban voters. If the Democrat wins, I would expect a lot more Democratic candidates to begin making abortion rights central to their campaigns, at the very least.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant