A Shift In Storyline?
Perhaps things aren't quite as bad for Democrats as the storyline the entire political media universe has been echoing for the past week or so. That's the message today, and it is an interesting one indeed for Democrats to see. For a while now, the political press has had a rather gloomy outlook: "Democrats peaked too early on the abortion issue and the momentum has now officially shifted to the Republicans in the midterm election races." Now, I'll admit I haven't been following the polls as closely as I do during presidential election years, so I didn't notice something that has apparently been happening (but, to be fair, few others had commented on it either) -- virtually all of the polling done in the past couple of weeks has been from Republican pollsters, not independent, nationally-known polling organizations. Which could explain the whole "momentum shift" as nothing more than bias induced into the polls themselves.
New polls are out now from independent pollsters, and they show Democrats are still quite competitive in the Senate. As Politico reported today:
The new polls released so far this week did represent some of the first independent polling in days -- and they interrupted a steady stream of publicly released surveys from Republican outlets, most of which contained more favorable results for the GOP.
Taken together, the new polls suggest neither party has a commanding advantage in the battle for the chamber.
The New York Times released its own polling, which was considerably better for Democrats in four key Senate races than what has been reported recently:
New York Times/Siena College polls
- Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) 49, Mehmet Oz (R) 44.
- Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 51, Blake Masters (R) 45.
- Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) 47, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 47.
- Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) 49, Herschel Walker (R) 46.
[One cautionary note... the Times article did prominently point out: "...it's very important to caution that most of this poll was taken before the Pennsylvania Senate debate."]
The Times also commented on what had brought the aggregate polling averages (at places like FiveThirtyEight) down and how their own polling was really in a different class than the others:
Although our polls may look better for Democrats than the average, they look about the same as the other traditional polls that used to be considered the gold standard in survey research, like ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, NBC, the university survey houses, and so on.
In many of these states, our surveys are the first such poll in weeks.... The absence of surveys from reputable pollsters is remarkable.
Of course, any pollster can get things wrong, and the traditional pollsters have certainly overestimated Democratic enthusiasm before. Nothing is written in stone, and the margin of error is so small (a few percentage points) between one candidate or the other winning that no poll is a perfect crystal ball.
But perhaps the political pundits have been just a wee bit manipulated over the past few weeks? Republicans flood the zone with slightly-skewed partisan polling, while the traditional pollsters go dark. This heavily affects the "poll of polls" averages on sites like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, which is where everyone gets their polling averages from. So the pundits all dutifully write up the storylines: "Shift In Momentum Towards GOP!" and "Last-Minute Swing In Polls!" Everyone else reads these and treats it all as conventional wisdom. But none of that means that any of it is actual reality, it could just as easily be manufactured reality in the news media.
For such an important midterm election, there has been somewhat of a dearth of polling. The number of polls reported is way down and the number of traditional pollsters' polls is down even further. Which all makes it easier to manipulate the averages, around the edges.
From the Politico report, some facts: In Pennsylvania the three most recent polls (before the new ones, assumably) were all from partisan Republican firms, making a total of six out of the last nine polls done in the state. In Georgia, it's even higher: five out of seven of the last polls were GOP polls. Anyone who knows numbers can see that that's a lot of partisan poll results included in the averages.
The real question is whether this will have an effect on the turnout and the voting, of course. And this could really go either way, because learning that one side is up over the other in a last-minute shift in momentum can cut both ways. It can enthuse the side who is reportedly up, in what might be called a "We're going to win!" effect. But it can also make the other side even more motivated to vote, in what might be called the "Every vote is going to count in this election!" backlash.
It's impossible to tell how it will all play out. Just as it is impossible now to tell which polls will wind up being closer to the reality of the vote counts. My own personal guess is pretty much what it has been all along: this election will see record or near-record turnout, and the winning side will likely win because a wave of unexpected voters turns out that the pollsters just missed. After the past few election cycles, this seems like the only safe bet, really.
We're still a week away from the election. And that's (just barely) long enough for a completely different storyline to take hold as conventional wisdom, which would be ironic indeed. All the pundits could look at the new polling and read into it something which might not even be there. To reconcile the new results with what they've been writing for weeks, perhaps the punditocracy will settle in for a new bit of conventional wisdom in the final week: "Momentum Shifts Back To Democrats!" and "Last-Minute Trends Are Usually Determinative!"
If this does actually happen, then it would flip the entire calculation for what effect any of this might have on its head. All of a sudden it would be Democrats who might get overconfident about their chances of winning, and Republicans would be grimly determined to see that their vote made a difference.
At this point, such an outcome wouldn't surprise me at all. I've seen stranger things happen, I'll put it that way.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
CW
Republicans flood the zone with slightly-skewed partisan polling, while the traditional pollsters go dark. This heavily affects the "poll of polls" averages on sites like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, which is where everyone gets their polling averages from. So the pundits all dutifully write up the storylines: "Shift In Momentum Towards GOP!" and "Last-Minute Swing In Polls!"
I submit as a case in point an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight and many other websites in America who'd already tagged this one's toe:
*
In its defense, the article did, however, state that it looked like the Democrats "may be more energized."
Fast forward to the only poll that mattered just 13 days later, and to say it "wasn't even" close is rather an understatement. An unprecedented number of Kansans voted against the constitutional amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to end their right to choose. When the dust had settled, it was a 59-41 double-digit rout in a conservative state.
Polls can be instructive if you watch the fluctuations over time in the same poll being conducted the exact same way, and it's possible the polls are underestimating the participation rate of certain groups like "Gen Z," "Gen X" et alia and also possible they're accurate. Generally no two polls are alike and there are a plethora of push-polls designed with the specific intent to achieve a certain result. However, these flood-the-zone-type polls can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if/when voters hear of them and choose to "sit this one out" because "it's already over"... so do not ever sit one out based on either favorable or unfavorable polls and the mewling of the punditocracy.
Regardless of your Party/political beliefs and despite the reporting on which way the wind is blowing and which direction the polls are moving, ignore it and (always) go cast your votes in the only poll that matters. Go early if you can, fill out your ballot and send it in if you're a vote by mailer, but vote by whatever means are available to you.
Just my opinion FWIW, but if you don't like the government you get after having sat out an election, you earned it, and the pendulum swings back and forth.
VOTE
Mezzomamma
2
VOTE
Hell, yes, and how is that ballot tracking going?
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Kick [3]
My ballot has been received and counted.
It's good to get that confirmation if you need to vote by mail or use a ballot drop-off box.
Perhaps things aren't quite as bad for Democrats as the storyline the entire political media universe has been echoing for the past week or so.
This would most certainly come under the heading of "Whatever ya have to tell yerself to make it thru the day.." :D
The problem Democrats have is that their polling ALWAYS undercounts GOP'ers. This is well documented as fact that even DEMOCRAT polling outfits acknowledge.. No self-respecting American/GOP'er would want to talk to a Democrat poll taker.. :D
Of course, the converse is also true.. No Democrat poll taker would want to talk to a self-respecting American/GOP'er.. So it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.. Confirmation bias in all it's glory.. :D
Further, recent Dem polls haven't take into account milestones that have occurred recently.
As you note, the NY Grime poll doesn't take into account the debate that Fetterman totally and unequivocally blew... A snap poll immediately following the "Debate Heard Round The World" had Doc Oz completely and utterly destroying Fetterman in the debate, 80-some odd % to 15-some odd %.... :D Of course, it's probably more accurate to say that Fetterman completely and utterly destroyed HIMSELF... :D TOE-MAY-TOE, POE-TAA-TOE :D
In Georgia, Stacey BIG LIE Abrams further proved the Democrats' Anti-Cop/Hate Cops bona-fides by accusing Georgia Sheriffs of being racist.
Of course, Big Lie had absolutely ZERO facts to support her bigoted and hate-cops claim.. Such a blatantly bone-headed and ignorant remark by BIG LIE will also taint Warlock even more so... And, with Georgia coming off of a really big College Football win...??? Well, it's clear to see where the Georgia elections are heading.. :D
I get it.. I really do.. I get that Democrats will want to latch onto ANY shred of a glimmer of hope they can find... or invent.. :D
But I honestly and sincerely would counsel Dems that they need to prepare themselves for the Uber Nuclear Biblical Shellacking that they are about to receive.. :D A shellacking that's going to make the 2010 shellacking look like a Fun Family Picnic by comparison.. :D
In 5 days and 18 hours.. :D
1/20 :D :D
It's also important to note that the DEMOCRAT Poll Of Polls, Nat Silver's 538, shows that Republicans now have a 51% chance of taking the Senate..
This is noteworthy because about a month or so ago, 538 had Democrats KEEPING control of the Senate at about 75%...
So, the momentum is clearly on the side of the GOP in the final days before the election.. :D
I'm just sayin'... :D
JL, guess we're gonna have ta fit you for that T-Shirt, eh?? :D
2/20 :D :D
I went in knowing that history is against me, for a chance to see a photo of you promoting vasectomies. ;)
I went in knowing that history is against me, for a chance to see a photo of you promoting vasectomies. ;)
Heh...
Tell ya what..
To show what a good sport I am, if ya want to buy the shirt, I'll wear it on the same day you wear yours.. :D
Make sure it's sleeve-less if at all possible.. And I am down from an XXL to a Large... So plan accordingly.. :D
3/20 :D :D
Michale
7
It's also important to note that the DEMOCRAT Poll Of Polls, Nat Silver's 538, shows that Republicans now have a 51% chance of taking the Senate..
Well, it's not exactly a 51% chance, it's actually a cross-section of 100 scenarios out of a total of 40,000 computer run scenarios based on the latest polls where they've weighted those polls depending on past performance and they've pre-factored in a Republican bias. So 51 of those 100 scenarios out of 40,000 show Republicans winning the Senate, and it changes every time the polls change. If the polls are off, the probability predictions will be correspondingly off. If the polls are accurate... same thing in reverse. Every time the polls change, the probability models change. Right now, like CW's column discusses, the averages are top-heavy with Republican-run polling.
Also, the FiveThirtyEight updates a lot the last week, and it's 53 out of 100 of those 40,000 computer simulutions because they're now showing Nevada and Georgia going GOP in the Senate... but not by very big margins at all (at least not yet).
This is noteworthy because about a month or so ago, 538 had Democrats KEEPING control of the Senate at about 75%...
It topped out at around 70 out of 100 scenarios (a cross-section taken from 40,000 scenarios), and that was around mid September.
On the other hand, over in the House, it is off the charts in favor of Republicans and has been the entire midterm season. I think the closest the Democrats came was high 30s... the exact reverse of the 2018 midterm charts when Democrats netted a gain of 41 seats.
So, the momentum is clearly on the side of the GOP in the final days before the election.. :D
Also, the polls always tighten in the last days before an election when the pollsters "fudging" their numbers suddenly move them more in line with their actual polling because they get ranked in order of accuracy. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Thank goodness we'll have a Democratic POTUS to veto all the GOP BS.
Kick,
You ever notice that all of your responses of late are simply re-iterating what I have already said, albeit with a positive spin (read 'BS') for Democrats... :D I find that hilarious..
Thank goodness we'll have a Democratic POTUS to veto all the GOP BS.
Considering that it's well documented that the American people overwhelmingly WANT those GOP policies, such an action by Biden will simply prove that he is incapable of effective leadership and will pave the way for President Trump's triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024.. :D
4/20 :D :D
White Suburban Women Swing Toward Backing Republicans for Congress
New WSJ poll shows key group of midterm voters favors the GOP by 15 percentage points
WASHINGTON—White suburban women, a key group of midterm voters, have significantly shifted their support from Democrats to Republicans in the closing days of midterm campaigning because of rising concerns over the economy and inflation, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll.
The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll. It also suggests that the topic of abortion rights has faded in importance after Democrats saw energy on that issue this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone. The poll showed that 54% of white suburban women think the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% think the economy is headed in the wrong direction.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-suburban-women-swing-toward-backing-republicans-for-congress-11667381402?st=vah8l1cbghf7plz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The collapse is very notable because in the WSJ's previous poll, in August, 43% thought the economy had entered a recession, and 59% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.
Once again.. Momentum is with the GOP... :D
And if Biden moves to veto all these plans that the GOP have that the American people WANT...
Well, it doesn't bode well for Dems in 2024.. :D
5/20 :D :D
The 51% chance this morning that the GOP takes the Senate??
It's now a 53% chance that the GOP will take the Senate.. :D
The Senate is currently a toss-up. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Now matter HOW anyone wants to spin the facts, the facts remain the same... There is a buttload of momentum that is clearly pushing the GOP towards victory.. :D
Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania...
Nevada is a virtual guarantee of a GOP pick-up...
Considering how bad Stacey BIG LIE Abrams is dragging down the Dems in Georgia??? Georgia is a bit of a little less of a virtual guarantee, but still a virtual guarantee..
Pennsylvania??? The atrocious debate performance turned in by Fetterman is still paying dividends. For the GOP and Doc Oz.. :D
The Pittsburgh Gazette's endorsement of Doc Oz puts Pennsylvania firmly in the GOP WIN column...
The GOP is likely to sweep the Tri-State Trifecta... :D
Five Days, Ten Hours... :D
6/20 :D :D
The GOP is likely to sweep the Tri-State Trifecta... :D
Now, don't just take MY word for it.. :D
Let's hear from Nate Silver hisself.. :D
The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night
Republicans reached a milestone on Tuesday, surpassing a 50 percent chance of a Senate takeover in our Deluxe forecast for the first time since July 25. Still, the race for the Senate is about as close as it gets. So I thought it might be worth engaging in a dialog with my alter egos.
Today, you’ll meet Nathan Redd. He’ll try to convince me that the Republican outlook is even better than our model shows. Then later this week, we’ll introduce you to Nathaniel Bleu.1 While fairly partisan, Redd and Bleu are canny observers of politics who are reasonably numerate. Last night, I met with Redd at a bar near Grand Central Station before his commute back to Connecticut. An abridged transcript follows:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-republican-sweep-on-election-night/
For obvious reasons, I won't post the whole transcript..
But it's a very good read.. Chock full of all those facts that ya'all don't want to hear and will go to great lengths to avoid hearing... :D
7/20 :D :D
I saw that Trump's jumbo jet is back after a remodel and lots of work to make it flyable again. They really put a rush job on it to get it back in working order.
Is it odd that Trump used the money from donations made to his legal defense fund to pay for the repairs to get it back in the air? How could his accountants ever think that those two things are related?
It's almost like Trump is telling us something...
Considering that it's well documented that the American people overwhelmingly WANT those GOP policies,
The American people overwhelmingly WANTED Hillary Clinton to be President, not Trump, so I'm curious why you think the people want these alleged GOP policies that you cannot even name?
Majority of Americans want women to have access to abortions as a medical option.
Majority of Americans want marriage equality for all Americans.
Majority of Americans support background checks for all gun purchases and transactions.
GOP wants to trash Medicaid and Social Security... don't see Americans wanting either of those!
GOP wants to defund the FBI. Don't see Americans in favor of that either.
So tell us all about those great programs that the GOP is sitting on! Maybe it's the most beautiful Health Care system that Trump told us he was rolling out on four different occasions? Will he be wanting us to build a wall on our Northern border next? Because his southern wall is really keeping people out!
The American people overwhelmingly WANTED Hillary Clinton to be President, not Trump,
Not factually accurate.. Since President Trump wiped the floor with Hillary.. :D
As to the rest....
Blaa blaaa blaaa..
Here are the facts, MPD=Conspiracy Boy.. :D
The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..
The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems..
Whine and cry about baby killing and gay marriage all ya want...
Americans don't really care about those things..
As the election in 5 days 9 hours will prove beyond ANY doubt... :D
8/20 :D :D
Michale
11
You ever notice that all of your responses of late are simply re-iterating what I have already said, albeit with a positive spin (read 'BS') for Democrats... :D
Nope. If that were a fact, then I would have obviously posted a bunch of tasteless jokes about Paul Pelosi that proved without doubt I was a bona fide jerk while at the same time whining (again) about Democrats being jerks.
Considering that it's well documented that the American people overwhelmingly WANT those GOP policies, such an action by Biden will simply prove that he is incapable of effective leadership and will pave the way for President Trump's triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024..
Depends on the policies, wouldn't you say? The GOP doesn't really have any policies beyond tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts to Social Security for the rank and file. I don't think that one is very popular.
Also, you are incorrect about Trump's return to the Oval in 2024; even if he were to win the election, he wouldn't return until the following year in 2025. But it is freaking hysterical to watch you pine longingly for a criminal to occupy the White House; kind of puts totally to rest your claims of being a crime fighter. Heh. :)
Kick,
Depends on the policies, wouldn't you say?
What part of.... The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..
The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems.. .... was not clear to you??
Do you want me to use words of one syllables??
Also, you are incorrect about Trump's return to the Oval in 2024; even if he were to win the election, he wouldn't return until the following year in 2025.
WOW...
*THAT'S* the best response you could come up with!??
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHA
Thank you for your concession.. :D
Russ,
Majority of Americans want women to have access to abortions as a medical option.
Majority of Americans want marriage equality for all Americans.
Majority of Americans support background checks for all gun purchases and transactions.
GOP wants to trash Medicaid and Social Security... don't see Americans wanting either of those!
GOP wants to defund the FBI. Don't see Americans in favor of that either.
Do you have *ANY* facts to back up ANY of your BS claims??
Auch... Look who I am asking for FACTS!?? :eyeroll:
9/20 :D :D :D
ListenWhenYouHear
16
Russ is correct. All of it! :)
So tell us all about those great programs that the GOP is sitting on! Maybe it's the most beautiful Health Care system that Trump told us he was rolling out on four different occasions?
Two weeks. :)
Will he be wanting us to build a wall on our Northern border next?
And Canada will pay for it. Hear that, Elizabeth Miller!?
Because his southern wall is really keeping people out!
It's a fence, Russ, and contrary to popular belief of the Trumplicans, it's been there for decades and wasn't even Trump's idea. Most of the wall that was built replaced fencing that was already there. Womp, womp. :)
Michale
19
What part of.... The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..
In order to be grammatically correct, you should have used "are the two biggest problems," and you've got a sentence that continues in the next paragraph.
The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems.. .... was not clear to you??
Poor punctuation. Also, those aren't policies. Work on it.
Do you want me to use words of one syllables??
If it'll make things uncomplicated for you while you attempt proper grammar and punctuation, it might be beneficial for you.
WOW...
*THAT'S* the best response you could come up with!??
Of course not. I kept it simple just for you.
Thank you for your concession.. :D
I didn't give you a concession, and therefore you've got nothing.
Kick,
Poor punctuation.
Grammar lame?? THAT's yer best shot??
I wish I could say I was surprised.. :eyeroll:
10/20 :D :D :D
What is we teaching our children?
Michale
22
It seems demonstrably beyond the bounds of possibility that you might at least attempt to unplug yourself from the lame same-old-same-old phone-it-in knee-jerk infinitely boring customary modus operandi, and it's an equally undeniable fact that Russ and I are not currently (and highly unlikely to ever be) the topic of one of CW's headlining pieces.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, endeavor to restrain your monotonous infantile predilection and permit yourself to remain on topic and forego the prattling dullard cretinous troll routine.