Stress Test
The American system of holding elections is about to go through a stress test. I saw this term in the headline of a Washington Post piece today and had to agree it was the correct term to use. A stress test, whether for a piece of software or a new gizmo, is essentially the quality assurance/quality control people beating the living daylights out of it until it crumbles. For online software, this might mean simulating millions of people trying to access it simultaneously (see: Obamacare marketplace website rollout). For a new doodad, it might mean dropping it from increasing heights until it shatters when it hits. The whole idea is to push beyond the limits to find out the breaking point, one way or another.
That's what we're about to see play out. The Post article starts with a bullet list:
Tuesday's midterm elections will show how successfully Republicans have changed America's political DNA -- including its rules about voting -- in the two years since former president Donald Trump's defeat, in a stress test that may last days, weeks, months, or all the way to 2024.
- GOP attitudes toward the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot that interrupted the certification of President Biden's victory have shifted away sharply from calling it an insurrection, and toward describing it as legitimate protest.
- Republicans have pursued a coast-to-coast drive to rewrite election laws to end practices they blame for Trump's loss, with mixed results.
- Trump has never let up in his attacks on mail-in votes, which could be how nearly 58 million ballots come in, while supporters of his have waged war on machine tabulation and sought hand counts that experts say are more prone to errors.
- False claims of voter fraud have fueled frequently successful GOP efforts at the state level to take control of the country's electoral processes.
- A majority of GOP nominees for House, Senate and statewide offices -- 291 of them -- have either questioned or outright denied Biden's victory in 2020.
The results from what we still call "Election Day" -- even though more than 40 million Americans have already voted, according to the United States Election Project -- may not be known for days or more, a function of America's patchwork system for counting ballots. There's also the very real possibility of losing candidates contesting the outcomes, much as Trump did.
I don't personally see that last as a "very real possibility," I see it as all but inevitable. Trump's Big Lie is about to spawn a whole bunch of Little Lies -- individual Republican candidates in smaller-bore races that lose a close election and scream to the heavens: "I wuz robbed!"
But it's more than just that. Far more. Let's just add a few:
- Lawsuits are already happening in some places, to challenge the elections laws used to disqualify votes from being valid. These lawsuits are targeted at Democratic areas, of course (such as Detroit).
- The conspiracy-theory-believing MAGA voters who are planning on voting at the last possible minute on Election Day (their fears are too silly to even explain) could face long last-minute lines as a result, or even show up past the deadline and be turned away. Can you imagine what they'll be saying on Fox News if any of this comes to pass? I can.
- Elections observers who could either try to sow chaos or give breathless stories of things they supposedly witnessed to the right-wing media. A lot of this year's elections observers are true believers in the Big Lie, so they're going to believe anything they don't understand is automatically The Big Steal happening right in front of their faces.
- Elections systems in scattered areas will have minor problems. This always happens, in any American election. Our election system is so decentralized that it's almost guaranteed. But this year, any small problem will be magnified enormously by the microscope of those looking for "proof" of vast election fraud. These stories will also be amplified beyond belief in the right-wing media echo chamber.
- Trump and all the other Republicans will be out there stoking public anxiety and fear during any extended counting process (which again seems inevitable if there are close races). Just like they did last time around. We can expect a whole lot more of it this time around, though, even though in many states Republicans put laws in place (or didn't remove them) which dictate that the process last longer than one night.
- Bad-faith elections officials refusing to release accurate vote counts. These were rare in 2020 -- they might be a whole lot less rare this time around.
- Conspiracy theories about every single stage of the operation will be spread widely -- about early voting, mail-in voting, in-person voting, transporting votes, counting votes, certifying elections, recounting votes, and anything else they can think of. Just like it did in 2020, but they've had a whole two years to concoct even more bizarre theories.
- And, of course the also-inevitable post-election lawsuits from losing candidates challenging results, challenging the count, challenging anything under the sun. That's pretty much a given, as already mentioned.
Those are the stress tests the system faces, tomorrow and beyond. And that's not even adding to that list any of the things which could happen, it merely lists what is likely to happen. Voter intimidation could take place. Violence could break out, either at the polls or at the counting locations. Nobody really knows, although a different article in the Post tried to make the case that at least people are getting prepared for any eventuality. The system itself knows that a stress test is about to happen, in other words, so at least it won't strike without warning.
The worst stress test will come in 2024, of course, as tomorrow multiple election-denying candidates are bound to win, and some of them will then be in control of their state's elections system. But that's down the road, at least for now.
Tomorrow (and beyond) is going to test the system we have in place right now. It's already being tested -- more early and mail-in votes have been cast (40 million as of this morning) than ever before. It's estimated that number will hit at least 50 million by tonight.
The increase in early voting isn't a function of anything political, really, so all the people analyzing "what it all means politically" are doing no more than shooting in the dark. We had a pandemic. Voting rules drastically changed. More and more people have discovered how easy it is to vote early -- how it turns voting from a chore you might not get around to on a busy Tuesday to something you can plan on a weekend, or just sit in your pajamas and do on your couch. A lot of these laws are still in place -- early and mail-in voting has been expanded, but there's nothing sinister in that. Whole states have mail-in-only elections, where every registered voter is mailed a ballot. And their elections run just fine -- totally smoothly and with better turnout records than the states that make "absentee voting" difficult. So the increase in numbers was a direct result of it being more widely available, and nobody really has any idea which party will benefit the most from the new reality.
In any case, we're about to see the system go through the stress test. Stress tests are designed (some of them, at any rate) to find and accurately identify the breaking point. Let's hope the system is robust enough and is prepared enough to succeed without breaking. That's something we all should be able to agree upon. Let's hope it passes the stress test with flying colors.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
The worst stress test will come in 2024, of course, as tomorrow multiple election-denying candidates are bound to win, and some of them will then be in control of their state's elections system. But that's down the road, at least for now.
I think that's certainly possible if Trump is the Repug nominee but I'm far less certain that Trump will win their nomination. DoJ will start dropping indictments before the end of November, hopefully before Trump declares. Maybe not on Trump just yet but a couple of henchmen so close to the Big Guy that they can be flipped with plenty of time left to go after Trump himself. It's not a question of if but when Trump is charged. To my mind the only mystery is whether DoJ gets him off the street as a flight risk and hence off social media as a demonstrated threat to public safety. I wonder if DoJ and Secret Service are quietly negotiating the particulars as we speak.
Even absent that, Trump trashed a decent economy, needlessly killed hundreds of thousands of Americans by caring more about the daily stock market than warning us about Covid, got impeached twice, lost the House, the Senate and the White House, the second time motivating 81 million votes for Joe Biden. Let's see what kind of effect he has on tomorrow before we finish refining what so much winning actually means.
For the record I have no idea whether tomorrow will be violent nor who's going to win the House and Senate. I hope it turns out like Y2K. The sky was clearly in danger of falling, we took precautions...and it turned out to be a nothing burger.
It's not like anyone in, say, law enforcement isn't quite aware of and prepared for possible mayhem. I grew up next door to a Police Sergeant and served in the Army and while both entities are chock full of Repugs they are Patriotic Repugs. I'm confident both entities would flat out crush any Civil War 2.0 nonsense that might crop up. First couple of virals of rednecks getting shot up by whichever would shut down that shit right away.
For obvious reasons I trust neither the polls House: Likely Repug and Senate: Toss-up nor conventional wisdom the Dems will surely lose seats, just like always. I think Trump and Covid has scrambled things up and anything from a red wave to a blue wave seems possible.
Caddy,
... [Trump motivated] 81 million votes for Joe Biden.
Well, there aren't too many who could have done that.
Indeed, I'd say Trump is the ONLY one who could have made that happen. Actually, I'd even go further and say that only Trump could have made Biden even decide to run for president in 2020.
So, I guess what I'm saying is ... thank-you, Trump! ... and, please run again!!! :)
It's hard not to doom-scroll at the moment. We can only hope that the general media echo chamber doesn't reflect reality.
Caddy's mention[2] of Y2K, and the precautions that worked prompts me to retell this: one of the reasons Y2K was a nothing burger was because thousands of people including one of my brothers-in-law spent a year or more on those precautions, up to and including putting the entire system and data of a big credit union onto laptops which had never been connected to the internet and driving with them to an off-grid location (easier to find and not so far away then) for a few days until it was clear all the other precautions had worked.
Takeaways: 1) Politicians and the media often over-amplify concerns and the echo chamber makes it worse. 2) We need a similar large-scale, urgent approach to election procedures and security, but not driven and controlled by extremists.
Liz,
So, I guess what I'm saying is ... thank-you, Trump! ... and, please run again!!! :)
You DO realize that you are repeating the exact same mistake that Democrats made in 2016, right??
Hoping that Candidate Trump would be the GOP nominee, thinking he would be easy to beat...
You DO realize that, right???
Shirley, this comes under the heading of Be Careful What You Wish For, eh?? :D
MC,
I think that's certainly possible if Trump is the Repug nominee
while both entities are chock full of Repugs they are Patriotic Repugs.
Awwww.. And you were doing SOOOO well.. :^/
Just can't help yerself, can ya MC?? :eyeroll:
but I'm far less certain that Trump will win their nomination.
Yea, well it's obvious your predictor organ is out of whack, eh?? :D
Do you need me to make a list of all your wrong predictions of late?? :D
DoJ will start dropping indictments before the end of November,
Do you REALLY want to see Civil War 2.0 start??
All Democrats have to do is indict the GOP 2024 Presidential Candidate.. THAT will do it...
I'm confident both entities would flat out crush any Civil War 2.0 nonsense that might crop up.
Actually, the FACTS clearly show that both entities would be on the side that loves and supports America.. Not your side, the side that hates and wants to destroy America...
It's not a question of if but when Trump is charged.
Yea?? That's what ya'all said about ya'all's Russia Collusion Delusion, eh??
Do you need me to remind ya how well THAT worked out for ya'all???
hehehehehehehehehehehehe :D
Trump trashed a decent economy,
Not factually accurate.. Democrats with their hysterical and baseless and factless COVID protocols and lockdowns trashed President Trump's decent economy..
Sorry, MC.. But you are not going to rewrite history.. Not while I am around.. I won't allow it..
Let's see what kind of effect he has on tomorrow before we finish refining what so much winning actually means.
Yes.. Let's see.. :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9P_NQrjChY
Do ya'all REALLY want to live thru ^^^^ THAT again??
REALLY!?? :D I mean, *I* am all for doing that again?? Bathing the warm afterglow of snowflake meltdowns and liberal tears??
Please, can I have some more!!?? :D
1/20
Liz,
You DO realize that you are repeating the exact same mistake that Democrats made in 2016, right??
Hoping that Candidate Trump would be the GOP nominee, thinking he would be easy to beat...
You DO realize that, right???
Shirley, this comes under the heading of Be Careful What You Wish For, eh?? :D
And, keep in mind..
In 2024 Democrats are NOT going to have ZuckBucks to buy entire election boards like Democrats had in 2020 and Democrats are NOT going to have Twitter to run Democrat dis/mis information scams like Dems had in 2020..
So, barring any new and perverse Democrat machinations.... 2024 will actually be a FAIR election..
And we know that when President Trump runs in a FAIR election (ala 2016) President Trump (and America) wins!! :D
The Uber Nuclear Biblical Shellacking Red Tsunami
Are ya'all ready for it?? :D
2/20
I don't personally see that last as a "very real possibility," I see it as all but inevitable. Trump's Big Lie is about to spawn a whole bunch of Little Lies -- individual Republican candidates in smaller-bore races that lose a close election and scream to the heavens: "I wuz robbed!"
Just as every DEMOCRAT who lost, did and said...
That's the point that ya'all ALWAYS want to ignore..
For the last 22 years Democrats, as a whole, whined and cried at EVERY election they lost.. Screaming and yelling to the heavens, "I wuz robbed!"..
Of course, all of this screaming and yelling by luser Democrats culminated in the hugely expensive and hugely waste of time Democrat Russia Collusion Delusion..
So, let's inject a dose of REALITY into this election day and acknowledge that when it comes to whining about losing elections...
Democrats take 1st prize in that area...
I'm just sayin'....
3/20
For obvious reasons I trust neither the polls House: Likely Repug and Senate: Toss-up nor conventional wisdom the Dems will surely lose seats, just like always.
The "obvious" reason being you don't like that outcome... :D
But if the polls would show a Blue Tsunami, then you would trust the polls to hell and back.. :D
Funny how that is, eh?? :D
It's called WISH-CASTING, MC... A meteorological term.. :D
Forecasting vs Wishcasting and Hypecasting
https://echoweather.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/forecasting-vs-wishcasting-and-hypecasting/
4/20
Michale,
2016 was well before 2017.
Context is everything, in other words. :-)
See ya next week! Well, at least not until after the dust settles. Heh.
Lawsuits are already happening in some places, to challenge the elections laws used to disqualify votes from being valid. These lawsuits are targeted at Democratic areas, of course (such as Detroit).
As for Republicans' lawsuit to have tens of thousands of mail-in ballots thrown out in Detroit, the judge issued an Opinion & Order yesterday, November 7, in which he outright denied Plaintiffs' ridiculous requests and altogether dismissed their unsubstantiated claims:
*
So, to recap:
Plaintiffs failed to produce any shred of evidence: No exhibits, no testimony, no evidence.
The conspiracy-theory-believing MAGA voters who are planning on voting at the last possible minute on Election Day (their fears are too silly to even explain) could face long last-minute lines as a result, or even show up past the deadline and be turned away.
Heh. There really is no bottom.
Can you imagine what they'll be saying on Fox News if any of this comes to pass? I can.
I can.
Yesterday, a blood-thirsty MAGA death cult zombie in Ohio took GQP voter suppression/intimidation to a new level when he shot his neighbor to death for mowing his lawn while Democrat.
https://www.journal-news.com/news/man-charged-with-murder-in-shooting-death-of-neighbor-outside-butler-county-home/XALOERKDY5C5DEPAGRIWIJUBLY/
Speaking of blood-thirsty, that obese orange half-orangutan was talking about executing drug dealers in two hours or less (you know, Duterte style) yesterday. Dear Leader is all about the constitution.
Liz,
2016 was well before 2017.
Yea.. Approx a year.. :D
See ya next week! Well, at least not until after the dust settles. Heh.
What!!???
Yer not going to be here for the Weigantia Red Tsunami After Election Party!!??? :^( heh
By the bi... That red MAGA Blood Moon looked AWESOME this morning!!! :D
A portend of great things to come, eh?? :D
JFC,
talking about executing drug dealers
I like that plan!!! :D
As do all non-Back Office Weenie LEOs.... :D
5/20
Michale,
What!!??? Yer not going to be here for the Weigantia Red Tsunami After Election Party!!??? :^( heh
Oh, I may be able to coax an appearance out of myself ... we'll see. :-)
Oh, I may be able to coax an appearance out of myself ... we'll see. :-)
Oh please do...
Tell ya what... I'll even limit my gloating for ya... :D
"But only because it's you.."
-Bill Paxton, TRUE LIES
:D
In any case, we're about to see the system go through the stress test. Stress tests are designed (some of them, at any rate) to find and accurately identify the breaking point. Let's hope the system is robust enough and is prepared enough to succeed without breaking. That's something we all should be able to agree upon. Let's hope it passes the stress test with flying colors.
Great column, CW. I have but one aspect of all this right-wing conspiracy bullshit lying, vilifying, and unsubstantiated election denying that I would like to point out, which is the fact that these liars and conspiracy bullshit artists are increasingly now being sued and held accountable in courts all across America for the damages caused by their outright unsubstantiated invented misinformation:
Conspiracists Beware: Post-Election Lies Could Land You in Legal Hot Water
Well worth the read.
The long arm of justice is definitely slow, but it really does bend toward justice.
A majority of GOP nominees for House, Senate and statewide offices -- 291 of them -- have either questioned or outright denied Biden's victory in 2020.
Two questions for your consideration, CW...
#1 How many Democrat nominees in 2018 questioned or outright denied President Trump's victory in 2016??
#2 Who is to blame for those election "deniers" actually being the GOP Candidate and are going on to win their elections?? Who should we point the finger at?? Maybe the DEMOCRATS who helped those "deniers" actually WIN their primaries?? Hmmmmmmm????
I'm just sayin...
#1 simply points out the fact that Democrats ALSO deny legitimate elections when they lose those elections.. As often if not MORE often than GOP'ers..
#2 is a PERFECT example of Democrats being hoisted by their own Picard.. :D
https://tinyurl.com/hzk2xmxb
7/20
John From Censornati
15
Speaking of blood-thirsty, that obese orange half-orangutan was talking about executing drug dealers in two hours or less (you know, Duterte style) yesterday.
Wait, what? The con artist/grifter who encouraged Americans to take his unfounded miracle pill and then stuck the United States with a 63 million stockpile of a drug which showed no demonstrable evidence that it ever worked against COVID wants to execute drug dealers? Isn't that special?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/health/hydroxychloroquine-national-stockpile/index.html
Dear Leader is all about the constitution.
*
Do you think he's even read the constitution? *shakes head*
Do you think he's even read the constitution?
I think not. His reading disorder is closely linked to his personality disorder. He only knows how to read his name and that's not in the constitution.
Heh
#1 How many Democrat nominees in 2018 questioned or outright denied President Trump's victory in 2016??
What's the answer? How many Democrats running for office in 2018 claimed that Hillary had actually won the election in 2016? I'm dying to hear the number!
Did Democrats believe that Trump was aided by Russian hackers and false stories being promoted on Facebook? Yeah. The DOJ proved that was the case in their prosecution of the Russian hackers where they were found guilty in absentia. But no one was claiming that Hillary lost because of voter fraud.