Republicans In Disarray
Unfortunately, that phrase doesn't have the alliteration of "Democrats in disarray," but it was tough to figure out what "R" word could work (other than "Republicans Are Revolting," which always just kind of seems self-evident to me, but I digress...), so I just went with the non-alliterative substitution. "Democrats In Disarray," of course, has become a running joke, because that is the mainstream political media's go-to headline whenever they're feeling especially lazy. It's also a joke precisely because of where we find ourselves right now -- when the Republicans are engaging in internecine warfare, the media often shrugs and doesn't pay any of it nearly the attention they do to Democratic intraparty tiffs.
But it's gotten hard to avoid, so headlines like mine are indeed showing up here and there. While the Republicans are now on the brink of wresting control from Nancy Pelosi in the House, it is far from the triumphant and sweeping victory they had all been expecting and promising. It is a massive disappointment, because their majority will be just as tight as it has been for Pelosi for the past two years. And Kevin McCarthy is nowhere near the leader Pelosi is, when it comes to herding cats. Before Pelosi's reign, Democrats were only loosely affiliated and groups of them would cross the aisle on a regular basis, in a perpetual chase of the elusive "bipartisanship" they all cherished (back then). Under Pelosi, House Democrats have been remarkable in how they stand together, both in the majority and in the minority. With the current crop of Republicans McCarthy faces an almost-impossible task, and he is simply not up to it in any way.
Consider that the radicals in the Republican House ranks have caused the last two speakers to quit in disgust. Both John Boehner and Paul Ryan tried to get the Tea Partiers to see reason, but in the end they failed to do so. Now the radical faction is stronger and much more outspoken -- and much more inclined to resist any attempts at compromise. This is going to leave McCarthy in the same position Ryan and Boehner were in, because the only way he'll get anything done is to get a handful of reasonable Republicans to vote with the Democrats to pass the necessary bills to keep the government running. Which will, of course, enrage the radicals.
McCarthy is starting off from a position of weakness. The Republican caucus just voted today on leadership roles, and while McCarthy did win their straw poll (the official election for speaker won't happen until the new House is seated in January, and will involve the entire chamber, not just the Republicans), he lost 31 votes to a challenger. This weakness means that he's going to have to negotiate with the Freedom Caucus (as the radical faction styles itself, these days) to get enough votes to actually become speaker. And what they're asking for is, in essence: "Give up some of the powers of being speaker or we won't vote for you." That's a tough way to start a new leadership role, you've got to admit.
Over in the Senate, Rick Scott has said he's going to challenge Mitch McConnell for the minority leader post (Republicans will not control the Senate, that much is assured already). This is almost laughable, because Scott is claiming it is all somehow McConnell's fault that so many terrible Trumpian candidates lost their midterm races. Even though Scott ran the campaign to get Republicans elected to the Senate. How low the "party of personal responsibility" has sunk, these days, eh? Of course, no matter what happens (McConnell will likely win this battle), it won't matter much because minority leaders just don't have that much power.
But of course we're ignoring the 800-pound elephant in the room. Because the biggest "Republicans In Disarray" fight is now imminent. Donald Trump will be announcing his 2024 presidential bid later today, the first actual Republican candidate to do so. Others have been testing the waters but to date none of them have come right out and said "I'm running" yet. Doing so means a whole bunch of election rules come into effect, so most politicians don't want to jump the gun and are content to wait until (at the earliest) the summer before an election year. Trump's tired of waiting, though, and he wants to clear the field, and he also is under a lot of pressure from the multiple investigations into his actions, so he's just going to throw his hat in the ring without regard to anyone else's calendar.
He does so at a rather dicey time for his image. He is widely seen as having essentially been an anchor on the Republican Party's chances in the midterms, and now Republicans openly describe Trump by using the phrase: "He's lost us the Senate twice now." For the first time since just after the January 6th insurrection attempt, many Republicans are deciding that their chances for success in the future would be a lot better if they moved away from Donald Trump.
Of course, Trump's been in this position before. And he's always bounced back and regained his iron grip on the party -- both his MAGA voting base and the party establishment. This time could work out the same way -- in a few weeks, few Republicans may be willing to say a bad word about him. That's what happened after January 6th, after all.
But then again, perhaps not. One indication might be who actually shows up to hear Trump speak tonight. Reportedly, Trump has issued invitations to a whole lot of Republican leaders and he will be watching very closely to see who shows up and who doesn't. So who is in the crowd tonight will be interesting to see. Or, more correctly, who does not show up will be interesting to note.
Trump, by announcing so drastically early, may overwhelm all the talk of the midterm elections. We'll see. If the Democrat wins re-election to the Senate seat in Georgia, then this may not be possible, because there will be plenty of people ready to blame the GOP loss on Trump announcing before the runoff election was held. So that could bring midterm talk back to the fore.
Announcing early also means that for a long period of time, there may not be any other Republicans officially in the race. Trump will have an uncontested stage, running all alone (for now). However, I do wonder whether Trump's move will spur a similar one from an anti-Trump Republican candidate or two. Most of the ones eyeing a presidential run against Trump are former politicians, or soon will be. Chris Christie and Larry Hogan in particular could jump in the race early, in an attempt to lock down the "not-Trump" lane of the party. This would be highly entertaining, since it would leave one (or possibly two) of them in direct confrontation with Trump, hammering away at him and refusing to let him have the sole spotlight. It would seem to me that an anti-Trump candidate really doesn't have much to lose by matching Trump's way-too-early announcement, and a lot to gain by doing so.
Either way, Trump running means a battle for the soul of the Republican Party. All Republicans know this. Many of them are going to play it safe and see how things shake out. But the various factions of the party are now on full display, pretty much wherever you look. Neither Kevin McCarthy nor Mitch McConnell will win their leadership election with a united caucus behind them, the radicals are just itching to start throwing political hand grenades in every possible direction in the House, and the lame-duck session might actually produce some bipartisan victories for Joe Biden. Donald Trump will still be around and still be trying to set the agenda for the party at large, and so far his voice is still a lot louder than the combined voices of the Republicans who are urging: "Let's move on, as a party."
There is no way to predict the outcome of any of this -- that's how much disarray the Republicans are in. Trump could easily win the GOP nomination in 2024. Kevin McCarthy could surprise everyone and do an admirable job as speaker (sorry, I couldn't even type that sentence out without bursting into laughter, but hey, anything's possible, I guess...). Maybe McCarthy can even rein in the worst impulses of the radicals and not allow the House to descend to pure political vitriol for two years. Or maybe it'll all go kerblooie in one fashion or another.
Anything's possible. Because Republicans are so plainly in some serious disarray right now.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I bet you've been waiting a looong time to get to title a column REPUBLICANS IN DISARRAY.
Desi Lydia of the Clan of Trevor Noah wasn't surprised by the midterms,
Every woman will agree that it's always better when your red wave comes in lighter than expected.
(rimshot)
I sat through Trump's meandering, low energy declaration speech. I saw no evidence of a teleprompter and it's tone very much reminded me of his Inauguration address. I wonder if he's losing it. Audience reaction was muted -- is it just my imagination or have the crowds at his rallies been subdued compared to back when he was relevant?
He told something exceeding 100 lies over the hour long ramble, no surprise, with plenty of revisionist history. Gawd, it just amazes me how disrespectful his is of America's intelligence. But Repugs live in an alternative reality in which Trump wasn't a Patron Saint of Dumpster Fires kinda President.
Dood!!!! Good ta hear from ya!!
Ya had me worried!!!! Glad to see yer OK...
1/20
the first time through i was reading with my partisan lens, but on second look holding a slim majority in only half of the legislative branch could be a real opportunity for sane republicans to get losing issues out of the way.
first and foremost, they could broker a compromise bill on abortion. the truth about roe was that it used viability, a fairly moderate standard, which could potentially be re-spun as a national ban on the types of abortions which most conservative voters disapprove. codify roe as a strict standard with exceptions only to protect the mother from death or dismemberment, and it would be something moderates on both sides of the aisle would vote for.
OR republicans can keep getting hammered on it in every subsequent election.
[10] Michale wrote: (From Yesterday)
"But it does look like things are a foregone conclusion, AND since it is the ONLY bright spot of good news out there.....
The House belongs to the GOP..
Let the two years of Biden/Democrat investigations and impeachments begin!!!! :D"
Don't count your chickens before they have been hatched Michale!!!
The best projection I have seen now, is that Republicans will have a majority of just 220 votes. 218 is the minimum needed. In this Congress that ends in January that Pelosi has run for the last TWO years, there have been 17 vacant House seats requiring special elections for various reasons, from people dying, to moving to private sector jobs, to taking jobs with the Biden administration, to SWITCHING PARTIES etc. over that time period. That is actually pretty average for a typical House term. So what makes you think Republicans will hold onto their 220 seat majority for even ONE year?????
Also, at least TEN of the Republicans who won, won in districts that Biden carried.... Do you really think MODERATE Republicans in BIDEN districts who want to KEEP THEIR JOBS are going to vote for silliness like Biden investigations and impeachment, seeing as how election deniers and the most extreme MAGA Republicans ALL JUST LOST????
McCarthy can't even get 200 votes for Speaker. He just got 188. He needs 218.
Here's your worst nightmare Michale. ALL Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans, elect Pelosi as Speaker, because the Republicans in the House fall into a circular firing squad and devolve into CHAOS.
OR they could elect a NON-PARTISAN House Speaker. The House Speaker doesn't have to be a member of the majority party, that's just the tradition. They don't even technically need to be a member of the House themselves, that's just the tradition again, which actually predates the existence of the House itself. (That's why the idea of Trump was floated as being elected Speaker.) All that's required is that they be elected by a MAJORITY OF HOUSE MEMEBRS. Usually it's by the party in the House majority, but it DOESN'T HAVE TO BE. The House can make whatever rules and elect whoever it wants, by simple majority vote. The constitution says the House and Senate can set their own rules themselves as to how they govern their own affairs or procedures.
The constitution ONLY requires that the House Speaker be at least 25 years old and a U.S. Citizen and the person needs a majority of the votes from House members who are PRESENT and voting. That's ALL. That means that while a majority is 218 votes in the House, a person could become speaker with fewer votes if several members do not attend the vote. That's another way Pelosi could become Speaker again. Republicans don't have to ACTUALLY VOTE FOR HER. They only need just ENOUGH moderate Republicans to SIT THIS ONE OUT and MISS the vote.
END OF WATCH
Police Officer Brandon Tsai
Grand Prairie Police Department, Texas
End of Watch: Monday, November 14, 2022
And remind the few...
When ill of us they speak..
That we are all that stands between..
The monsters and the weak...
ALL Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans, elect Pelosi as Speaker, because the Republicans in the House fall into a circular firing squad and devolve into CHAOS.
Another Democrat Wet Dream (AKA Russia Collusion Delusion, Build Back Broke, 6 Jan Cardassian Court) that will NEVER come to pass.. :D
But I admire your imagination, JM.. :D
3/20
[4]
Thanks, man, I appreciate your concern.
Technical difficulties prevented me from posting and I also wanted to hold out until it was confirmed that the Dems held both houses of Congress. Looks like I won't get my wish, but I am consoled by the prospect of two years of GQP House madness plus Trump running in 2024. I want y'all to investigate the hell out of Joe and Nothingburger Hunter. And crash the world economy by not raising the debt limit. And don't forget to try to outlaw all abortions.
The last three elections have been good to Dems and now we're looking at a fourth. The last time Repugs screwed the country (into the Great Depression) Dems ended up holding Congress for decades afterwards.
I want y'all to investigate the hell out of Joe and Nothingburger Hunter.
Great... Then we'll have very little to debate the next 2 years... :D
4/20
I didn't watch the failing orange loser make his low energy, low ratings hate speech, but I did enjoy the video of his goons holding the audience hostage while he droned on about the big beautiful stupid wall that he never built.
Haha. Welcome to you future as hostages GOP. The only wall he built is the one around you. Good luck escaping before he detonates his suicide bomb.
[12]
Absolutely ;D
So Michale,
How long before you jump ship from loser Trump and glom onto DeSanctimonious as your choice…”all along?”
Will you pretend that you’ve never heard of Trump and DeSanctimonious was always your REAL choice?
And did you love the treatment of the announcement buried on page 26 of orange's favorite newspaper, the NY Post? Here it is in its beautiful entirety:
Retry. Oh, and the teaser on page 1 read, "FLORIDA MAN MAKES ANNOUNCEMENT ".
Trump's tired of waiting, though, and he wants to clear the field, and he also is under a lot of pressure from the multiple investigations into his actions, so he's just going to throw his hat in the ring without regard to anyone else's calendar.
Trump says DeSantis is disloyal and also fat, phony, and whiny, which is hysterical because Donald is all of those things to the point of making DeSantis look slender and authentic but without that trademark Trumpian sweat glistening like oil on his orange visage.
Poor Donald is also tired of waiting. He's also tired of winning. He is winning so much that we were going to be sick and tired. We were going to say, "Please, please, Mr. President, we're sick and tired of winning. Please let us have at least one loss. It's no longer exciting to win." And he was going to say, "No way, we're going to keep winning, and I don't care if you like it or not."
They cannot say he didn't warn them that he didn't care if they liked it or not. Heh.
John From Censornati
13
I know, right!? People were trying to get the hell out of there, and they wouldn't allow them to leave. But John (not to be confused with the other John), of course, he didn't finish the wall he claimed to have finished. He either believes his own bullshit or he thinks his cult is dumb enough to believe him. Either way, it's effing hysterical. Also, it's definitely a fence and not a wall... and has been there for freaking decades. Trump simply replaced some of it and built onto it.
Haha. Welcome to your future as hostages GOP. The only wall he built is the one around you.
Exactly right.
Good luck escaping before he detonates his suicide bomb.
tick, tick... BOOM!
It's like watching a movie when you already know how it ends. The Trumptanic sinks.
MtnCaddy
15
How long before you jump ship from loser Trump and glom onto DeSanctimonious as your choice…”all along?”
Ron or Don, Don or Ron... either way, it's an asshole from Florida, the state shaped like a prick.
Will you pretend that you’ve never heard of Trump and DeSanctimonious was always your REAL choice?
Well, around Weigantia I have been known from time to time to opine that "Trump too shall pass," and he definitely will. I have also said that he won't go quietly because he's basically the Trumptanic and will sink famously while taking a number of passengers down with him. The passengers will say he was never one of them but always a member of the "Democrat Party" and will commence to inventing all manner of conspiracy theory bullshit around that theme.
MyVoice
17
Heh.