Proven Loser Loses Again, Bigly
There were two main lessons to be learned from last night's Senate runoff election in Georgia: electability matters, and Donald Trump is still a loser. These are really just two sides of the same coin, in this particular case. The big question left unanswered is whether Republican primary voters will learn these interrelated lessons before the next election cycle comes around in 2024 or not. To state the painfully obvious: if they do, they'll stand a much better chance of electoral success than if they don't.
Donald Trump took a personal interest in a number of Senate races this year. He did have some success with candidates he backed, such as J.D. Vance's big win in Ohio. But the number of races that were probably winnable for the GOP where Trump candidates faltered is greater. Some count just three: Herschel Walker (who just lost to incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia), Mehmet "Dr." Oz in Pennsylvania, and Arizona's Blake Masters. Others also add in ultra-MAGA candidates Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Nevada's Adam Laxalt, and even Alaska's Kelly Tshibaka (although Alaska's Senate seat did stay in Republican hands, due to their four-way runoff election system). But whatever number you choose, it's pretty easy to see that Trump's win/loss record this cycle was not a good one (and these are just the Senate races -- Trump-backed candidates lost in lots of other statewide races too).
Donald Trump is a proven loser. That much is beyond doubt now. He lost the popular vote for president but squeaked into office via the Electoral College, he proceeded to lose control of both the House and Senate while in office, and he lost his re-election bid for president. Then he torpedoed Republican chances of hanging on to control in the Senate by essentially telling Georgia Republicans not to even bother voting in the two runoff elections in early 2021. In both, the Democrat won, flipping control of the chamber to Chuck Schumer. This time around, Republicans could now be sitting on a majority of perhaps 51 to 53 seats, but instead Democrats beat the historical trend and actually picked up one seat -- which will allow them to fully control Senate committees for the next two years without Republican interference. All because of Donald Trump.
Here's how the New York Times reported last night's big loss for Trump:
It will be hard -- though not impossible -- for Mr. [Donald] Trump to wriggle his way out of this one. Mr. [Hershel] Walker had explored running for office long before 2022. But Mr. Trump, who had known Mr. Walker since the 1980s, when he owned the New Jersey Generals football team in the short-lived U.S.F.L., almost single-handedly made Mr. Walker's candidacy a reality.
"Wouldn't it be fantastic if the legendary Herschel Walker ran for the United States Senate in Georgia?" Mr. Trump said in March 2021. "He would be unstoppable, just like he was when he played for the Georgia Bulldogs, and in the NFL. He is also a GREAT person. Run Herschel, run!"
Run Mr. Walker did, jumping into the primary even after four Republican candidates had already announced their campaigns, including Gary Black, the agriculture commissioner and establishment favorite. Mr. Black warned that Mr. Walker's "baggage" would hurt him.
Yet none of Mr. Walker's rivals could match his celebrity wattage. He barely broke a sweat in the primary, winning with 68 percent of the vote.
In other words, the base GOP voters loved him -- even in Georgia, where they rallied behind their Republican governor and secretary of state (who had both earned Trump's ire by refusing to steal the 2020 election for him) rather than nominate Trump-favored candidates. But just winning over core Republican voters doesn't automatically translate into a general election win, when all the other voters have a chance to weigh in on a candidate's qualifications for office. "Trump loves him" isn't enough, at least not in Georgia. Which many Georgia Republicans already know:
As it became clearer that Walker would likely lose in the runoff, some Georgia Republicans began openly expressing buyer's remorse. GOP strategist Dan McLagan, who worked on the Senate campaign of Walker's primary challenger, Gary Black, maintained that Black would have won the general election handily. Walker trounced Black, the outgoing state agriculture commissioner, in the May primary.
"Georgia is a red state when we pick the best candidate rather than the rich one or the celebrity," McLagan said. "Until we learn that lesson, we will be treated to more train wrecks like this one as our nominee gets vetted in the general election like a slow motion Spanish Inquisition."
I have to admit, "a slow-motion Spanish Inquisition" is the best description I've yet read of what it has been like watching Herschel Walker's campaign go down in flames.
Some Republicans are now getting optimistic that perhaps the fever will break, now that Trump's candidates have been proven to be such big losers:
In Georgia Senate runoffs, Trump is now 0-3, after the 2021 runoff elections in which Trump was widely blamed for deflating Republican turnout with his rhetoric about rigged elections.
The net result, said John Watson, a former chair of the Georgia Republican Party, is "a whole lot of pissed off Georgia Republicans."
"There was no Herschel candidacy until Trump opened his mouth," he said. "The die on this thing was cast a year ago."
Scott Jennings, a former aide to President George W. Bush and confidante to Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, wrote on Twitter Tuesday night, "Georgia may be remembered as the state that broke Trump once and for all."
Perhaps. But perhaps not. Predictions of Trump's political demise have been around for exactly the same amount of time that he has been in politics, and so far none of them have proven to be accurate. Trump actually heeded the calls from Georgia Republicans to not hold a rally for Walker in their state at any time -- but distancing himself still didn't work. The voters tied Walker to Trump's MAGA movement nonetheless. But that still doesn't answer the question of how Republican base voters (in both Georgia and elsewhere) will act in the next primary election cycle. Which even some Georgia Republicans are now willing to admit:
During the runoff, Republicans made clear that they wanted Mr. Trump to stay away. Instead of one of his signature MAGA rallies in Georgia, the former president was reduced to holding a conference call to support Mr. Walker that was closed to the news media.
Many Republicans, previously mindful of the former president's capacity for survival, are now shedding their caution. "If Georgia Republicans want to keep laying in the mud with Donald Trump," said Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, "it's going to be a purple state."
Trump is now not just a proven loser himself, he's also a loser-by-association. He has a reverse Midas touch, since candidates he backs are more likely to lose than win. But will the voters care? Will they start heeding the warnings from their own party about "electability," or will they continue to nominate the candidate who emulates Trump's fire-breathing rage instead of choosing a candidate who could actually win some suburban voters back? It's way too early to tell, really.
There is one note of caution, however, for Democrats now celebrating yet another Trump loss with unrestrained glee. This election was close. Not as close as some, but winning by fewer than 100,000 votes out of more than 3.5 million cast still means a whole lot of people voted for Herschel Walker just because he had an "R" next to his name. Walker was patently unqualified on every level to join the United States Senate. He is dumber than a rock, which even he admitted while campaigning (in order to "lower expectations" before his one and only debate with Raphael Warnock). He has the morals of Donald Trump, which is to say "none at all." He is a liar who is completely divorced of the truth (again, just like his mentor). And he got over 1.7 million votes.
This was summed up in the snarkiest article I read this morning, from the Washington Post:
This (relatively) narrow result was yet another inevitability, one that has to do with another unfortunate reality of our politics: Candidate quality matters, but only at the margins. Walker is not heading to the Senate, but nearly half the Georgia electorate was ready and willing to send a man such as him to the government's so-called "greatest deliberative body" at the behest of a former president and his core supporters, who might have voted for three bags of MAGA hats in a trench coat if Trump said it was a "great fighter."
Will Republicans finally realizing that this is not a winning strategy, or will the base still love the MAGA antics so much in 2024 that they nominate enough patently-unelectable candidates for the Senate to stay safely in Democratic hands? Well, they've blown their last two chances at regaining control, so it is entirely possible.
But perhaps -- again, just perhaps -- even the base voters will get tired of all the losing. If enough of them think to themselves in the voting booth: "Boy I love that one guy Trump endorsed, he really says it like it is... but I seriously doubt he'll have a shot in the general election, so I guess I'll vote for the boring guy with lots of actual political experience instead," then the Republican Party will have a much better chance of success.
We won't know the answer to that question for over a year, but it's definitely worth asking now, for any Republicans who are tired of a proven loser proving over and over again how "bigly" he can lose race after race.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Fat Donny's occupation is grifter, not politician or president. It's helpful to keep that in mind.
* He's been caught red-handed with super top secret documents and he's not in a dungeon.
* He's still raking millions of dollars from the rubes.
* We The People are paying this low-life criminal a pension!
* We The People pay exorbitant rates for Secret Service agents to stay at his residence to protect him.
I could go on. He's not losing. The GQP is. I'm way past ready for his losing streak to start.
I'm the one Trump official with no subpoenas, indictments, scandals, and investigations - Kellyanne Conway
Isn't she helpful? It seems like that video will show up in some attack ads.
Does anyone know how the GOP gets out of the fine mess it’s put itself in? Even terminating our Constitution isn’t a bridge too far for these Profiles in Courage.
Watching them implode over the next 24 months is going to be such great fun — must remember to stock up on popcorn.
Who’da thunk that I’d ever even consider missing Dubya.
I cannot go there. But I shouldn’t have to even entertain the prospect.
Bush jr actually did a fair amount of course correction in his second term. Overall still a below average president, but by all accounts a decent person and well intentioned.
My major complaint about Bush jr is that he relied on the wrong people for advice. He only every got bad advice from the likes of Cheney and Rumsfeld and great advice from Biden. He followed the former and sabotaged the latter.
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[6]
Sure, Dubya was a decent person and well intentioned. If you forget about the screwing up our Afghan war to invade Iraq “because we wanted to kick someone’s ass [right after 9-11]” was the reason that leaked out well after the fact. I don’t think the resulting 100,000 Coalition casualties and the 1,000,000 Iraqi casualties would characterize him quite that way. Just saying.
Well, that is precisely what I was talking about in [6].
[7]
Agreed. I believe that the orange one is genuinely mentally ill. King George W has no such excuse. There was nothing well intentioned about his re-election strategy of Gay Marriage = Doomsday. It was every bit as sinister as QAnon.
I know, I know. W can't be all bad. He had an African Aids initiative and he tortured evil doers in the forever prison he off-shored.
Well, I see good things about Hitler also . . . Every human being has something of value that they brought to the table, especially Hitler. - The Artist formerly known as Kanye Kardashian
Hitler, there was a painter. He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two coats!
-the producers
But seriously, being a bad president isn't the same thing as being a bad person. Dubya isn't so bright, so he made some poor choices and took some lousy advice. Results do matter, but intentions matter too.
Results do matter, but intentions matter too.
My bet is that Iraqis don't see a lot of difference between Hitler's bad intentions and W's "good" ones. Neither do I. At the time, I could see that his advisors were bloodthirsty warmongers. It's why they were chosen. He wanted the advice he got.
Seriously, being a bad president or a bad person could both lead to some very, very bad outcomes emanating from the White House, as both types - exemplified by Dubya and Trump, respectively - have proved over the last couple of decades.
If I were an American voter, I'd demand better candidates for president and for people who occupy the WH. Well, I did, anyways. And, it worked! Heh.
My bet is that Iraqis don't see a lot of difference between Hitler's bad intentions and W's "good" ones. Neither do I. At the time, I could see that his advisors were bloodthirsty warmongers. It's why they were chosen. He wanted the advice he got.
Very fair analysis.
Besides, Bush looked a gift horse in the mouth when he sabotaged Biden's 2007 plan for US policy in Iraq which garnered 78 votes in the US senate that year. I think the Iraqi's might have gone for it if they and their advisors hadn't been convinced by the Bush administration that the plan wasn't a plan to keep Iraq united but rather a plan to carve Iraq up. Partition was the Bush line for it from the get-go and was as far from the truth of the matter as one could possibly get.
Yes, Bush got the advice he wanted and/or needed to satisfy his faulty inclinations and ill-perceived goals, to say nothing of his intentions.
If Iraqis (or anyone else for that matter) seriously can't tell the difference between the leadership of Adolf Hitler and George W Bush, we've got bigger problems than poor leadership. That kind of hyperbole reflects a serious lack of perspective, which I'm certain Vladimir Putin and his ilk will be all too happy to exploit.
We weren't discussing leadership. We were discussing well intentions.
CW
There is one note of caution, however, for Democrats now celebrating yet another Trump loss with unrestrained glee.
If I was a Democrat, I'd probably be explaining how a little bit of "unrestrained glee" was in order because of a lot of hard work. Then I'd raise my glass and do my "elections toast," which is always exactly the same sentiment whether a win or a loss:
*
This election was close.
People are saying that the former president was reduced to holding another conference call to support Mr. Walker that was closed to the news media:
*
People are saying. :)
Why does Hitler have to be mentioned so often in our discussions here, anyways??
That kind of hyperbole reflects a serious lack of perspective, which I'm certain Vladimir Putin and his ilk will be all too happy to exploit.
And, Ukrainians all too happy to ignore.
The truth, as per usual, lies somewhere in between.
In other words, the Ukrainian government's close ties with far-right extremists highlights just one of the reasons why Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.
Which makes Biden's adamant refusal to put Ukraine's membership in the Western security alliance ON the negotiating table before this war began all the more perplexing.
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Ye did say that Hitler stuff just the other day (with a black spandex hood on his head). That was just after dining with the alleged Proven Loser Nazi and some other Hitler fan. Hitler is on topic today.
:(
John From Censornati
12
Results do matter, but intentions matter too.
Exactly.
My bet is that Iraqis don't see a lot of difference between Hitler's bad intentions and W's "good" ones. Neither do I.
Very well said. I agree.
At the time, I could see that his advisors were bloodthirsty warmongers. It's why they were chosen. He wanted the advice he got.
Exactly!
It was a recurring pattern within the Bush administration, who weren't interested in the IC connecting the available dots; they invented the dots and then sought their connection, and con artist code name "Curveball" fit their predesigned plan and predetermined narrative. Far from being duped into war by the CI, he provided exactly what they sought.
nypoet22
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If Iraqis (or anyone else for that matter) seriously can't tell the difference between the leadership of Adolf Hitler and George W Bush, we've got bigger problems than poor leadership.
You missed John's point entirely, and I'm not used to seeing that from you. Maybe this will help:
That kind of hyperbole reflects a serious lack of perspective...
Maybe on your part.
... which I'm certain Vladimir Putin and his ilk will be all too happy to exploit.
Well, unfortunately for Vlad, he ain't exactly dealing with the Bush administration. :)
John From Censornati
16
We weren't discussing leadership. We were discussing well intentions.
People are saying the road to hell is paved with them. :)
Elizabeth Miller
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Why does Hitler have to be mentioned so often in our discussions here, anyways??
Probably because the former president and his friends are fans of swastikas, fascism and right-wing authoritarianism.
Why does Putin have to be mentioned so often in our discussions here, anyways?? ;)
Panda #6
nypoet22
27
You finally used the call word!
https://www.boredpanda.com/bad-argument-false-fallacies-dummies/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic