ChrisWeigant.com

Asa Who?

[ Posted Monday, April 3rd, 2023 – 16:57 UTC ]

Some news was made over the weekend, as another Republican unofficially threw his hat into the presidential primary ring. This, depending on how you count them, brings the list of serious declared candidates to either three or four. Or you could count the number of people who are definitely running (whether they have announced or not), which would make Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson either the sixth or the seventh candidate in the race. Hutchinson made his pre-announcement announcement this weekend on a Sunday morning television show, which came as a surprise to many -- myself included (mostly because I don't think he has even a prayer of winning the nomination). Many others, hearing the news, reacted with: "Asa who?"

Hutchinson is apparently running just in case the Republican Party suddenly emerges from its current Trumpian haze, rededicates itself to its historical ideological roots, and decides that sunny optimism is what it truly wants in a candidate. Which, quite obviously, is why I am of the opinion that he doesn't have a prayer of winning over today's Republican base voters. Hutchinson will attempt to occupy the "Aw-shucks down-home sunny Reaganism lane" in the primary horserace. He is the darkest of horses -- the longest of longshots -- because this lane likely does not even exist anymore.

Polling this early in a primary race is pretty unreliable, but you can't even check out where Hutchinson stands in the polls because the pollsters don't even include him in the list of possible candidates they ask voters about. The RealClearPolitics average of Republican voter polling has no column for Hutchinson, to put this another way. He isn't even included in their top-12 list.

As I said, polling this early should be taken with a large grain of salt, but it was interesting to see nonetheless. The top two slots are (of course) the top two men who get the most media attention right now: Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Trump is currently crushing DeSantis, 48.6 percent to 27.9, but DeSantis hasn't even announced his candidacy yet.

The third, fourth, and fifth positions are the only names listed who even top two percent. Mike Pence (also an undeclared candidate at this point) pulls in 5.2 percent while Nikki Haley (who has formally announced) trails at 4.4 percent. But fifth place is somewhat surprising -- Liz Cheney is polling at 3.6 percent. That may not sound like much, but it beats all the other names on the list. However, this seems to be due to Cheney getting wildly elevated responses from one particular poll (Trafalgar, which has put her at 9 and 10 percent recently), so it is likely no more than a statistical fluke.

All the other candidates, to varying degrees, certainly seem like they are at least contemplating a run. One of them, self-funded candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, is already an announced candidate. The others (Chris Christie, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Chris Sununu, Tim Scott, and Glenn Youngkin) all seem to be at least exploring the possibility of a formal campaign announcement.

Out of all of these names, only a few might find themselves in the same "lane" (chasing the same group of voters) as Hutchinson, as far as I can tell: Sununu, Scott, and possibly Youngkin.

Where they all fit on what might be called the Trumpian scale is still somewhat up in the air as well. Sununu stands out for being willing to actually criticize Trump on occasion, but he's not a full-throated "Never Trumper." All of them would, no doubt, prefer to just project sunny optimism and just present themselves as a viable alternative to all the chaos Trump (and all the wannabe-Trump candidates) bring to the race, without taking him on directly. Youngkin, in particular, proved that a Republican could run a successful statewide race in a purple state (he won the governor's race in Virginia) without either directly attacking or fervently supporting Donald Trump. Youngkin was content to ignore most of the fray and just occasionally send out dog whistles to the Trump voters while appealing to the swing and suburban voters without all the sturm und drang of a true MAGA candidate.

Hutchinson, in his on-air announcement, attempted to perform the same high-wire act. He doesn't want to attack Trump, but at the same time he wants to present himself as a solid alternative to Trump. Different pundits define the viable lanes within the Republican race differently, but it seems pretty obvious that there will be at least three of them, broadly speaking: the "Trump or Trump acolyte lane," the "not-Trump, but not-against-Trump lane," and the "anti-Trump lane." The only problem with this neat designation is that the last two of these may barely even exist. In the current polling, adding Trump and DeSantis together tops 75 percent. That is a pretty strong showing that the base may be convinced to move away from Trump at some point (when his legal problems get a lot less circuslike and a lot more serious and concerning), but that they're probably not looking to move very far -- they still would prefer "Trump without Trump's baggage" to any other choice.

Of course, the standard caveat does indeed apply: it is way too early to even be paying attention to all of this. I do realize that, but I did want to at least mark Hutchinson's entry into the fray. He deserves that much, even if I do think he doesn't have a prayer of winning the GOP nomination. Now that he has announced (his official announcement will be held later this month, in Arkansas), he will at least be included in the list of viable candidates that pollsters ask the voting public about. Other than Haley and (if you count him) Vivek Ramaswamy, Hutchinson will be the only announced candidate not named "Trump." Hutchinson's move may even spur a flurry of other pre-announcements, as other possible candidates might look at Trump being indicted as a dandy time to enter the race, since now Trump will be not just distracted but fully obsessed with his legal problems -- and thus far too busy to take gratuitous potshots at the dark horses. I could see the field expanding dramatically within this month, to include possibly: Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, and Chris Sununu. DeSantis appears willing to wait until his Florida legislative session ends, but others might see now as the most opportune time to enter the race.

I actually wish Asa Hutchinson luck. Despite thinking he would only have even the ghost of a chance (say, if both Trump and DeSantis spectacularly imploded somehow), it would be nice to think that a Reaganesque view on foreign policy coupled with some sunny domestic optimism (rather than the rampant victimhood and paranoia that now grips the party) would be an enticing thing for Republican voters.

But realistically I think that ship has long sailed, at least for the foreseeable future. If I had to place a bet, I would put my money on Asa Hutchinson never rising to more than a few percentage points in the polls, or maybe getting eviscerated at a Republican debate (if he even manages to qualify), or perhaps becoming a footnote by being the first Republican candidate to officially drop out of the race, long before the first primary is even held. In other words: "Asa who?"

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

3 Comments on “Asa Who?”

  1. [1] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    With the addition of “Asa who” I think the number of non-Trump Repug candidates ensure that Trump will repeat 2016 and win the nomination.

    And all Joe Biden has to do is not die and he will the third two-term Democratic President in a row.

  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Awaiting tonight's column with bated breath

  3. [3] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Heh.

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