A small wave of primary and special elections happened yesterday, and the results were summed up in a Washington Post headline today: "Republicans Keep Having Bad Elections." This continues an 11-month streak of good showings at the ballot box for Democrats, which began immediately after the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision threw out Roe v. Wade. And while off-year primary elections and midterms aren't always a good predictor of what will happen in the next presidential race, the trendlines certainly do seem to be favoring Democrats.

The two real upsets came in non-primary mayors' races, in Jacksonville (Florida) and Colorado Springs. Both were Republican strongholds, but the Republican candidate lost in both cities. Here is how the Post summed these up:

Donna Deegan's win in Jacksonville marked just the second time Democrats have won a mayor's race there in the last 30 years. She also won by four points in an electorate that favored Republicans by double digits in most statewide races in 2022. (Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for instance, won by 11.)

The victor in Colorado Springs was not a Democrat but rather an independent and a moderate, businessman Yemi Mobolade. But Mobolade's victory over Republican former Colorado secretary of state Wayne Williams marks the first time since 1979 that Colorado Springs won't have a registered Republican as its mayor. Republicans lost the race by 15 points in a city that only narrowly favored Gov. Jared Polis (D) a few months ago. (And Polis, it bears emphasizing, benefited from facing a flawed GOP opponent.)

The really good news for Democrats came from Pennsylvania, where there was a special election to fill a state house seat that had been vacated (when the Democrat who held the seat resigned due to sexual harassment accusations). This was a pivotal race, because Democrats had held the lower chamber in their statehouse by only a one-seat margin. If it had flipped, it would have handed control of the chamber back to Republicans (who control the state senate). But the Democrat won the race, which not only means that Democrats keep control of one legislative chamber but also that they'll be able to block putting a state constitutional amendment to limit abortion rights before the voters. Democrats holding control of the chamber will make the Democratic governor's job a lot easier as well.

Also in Pennsylvania an election-denying judge -- who ruled for Donald Trump and against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election -- was defeated in the Republican primary for a state supreme court seat. To be fair, this wasn't just a win for Democrats, it was also a win for establishment Republicans, who actively campaigned against the judge. And the 100th mayor of Philadelphia will almost certainly be the Democrat who just won her primary, which will make her the first woman mayor ever for the city of brotherly love. This was somewhat of a defeat for progressive Democrats, though, as Cherelle Parker ran a very tough-on-crime campaign.

In Kentucky, a rare GOP crossover candidate who was endorsed by both Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump won the nomination for governor. Daniel Cameron is the first Black man to serve as the state's attorney general and he is now the first Black man nominated in a Kentucky gubernatorial race, but he will have an uphill climb to defeat the incumbent governor. Andy Beshear is well-liked and a political force within this red state, so it's anyone's guess who will ultimately win. But Cameron is probably the GOP's best shot, as he beat out a fire-breathing culture warrior who got a last-minute endorsement from Ron DeSantis. Also in Kentucky, the current secretary of state fended off primary challenges from two Republican election-deniers, which is good news for democracy in the state (since the office is in charge of elections).

So what does all this mean, in a big-picture sense? Back to that Post article:

All told, according to the Daily Kos Elections numbers, Democrats have overperformed the 2020 presidential results by an average of six points across 18 state legislative races this year.... They've also beaten their 2016 margins by an average of 10 points.

. . .

More than anything, though, the 2023 results thus far look a lot like the special election results occurring after Roe was overturned in June 2022. Republicans had been overperforming in special elections before that date, but afterward the trend flipped on a dime. Democrats overperformed their 2020 margins in all five special congressional elections held between that date and midterm Election Day, by an average of more than five points -- similar to their six-point improvement in state legislative races so far in 2023.

Of course, each election is different, with different issues. Republicans not only have the Dobbs millstone around their neck, they also have to contend with their own election-denying base voters (who keep nominating Republicans that are far easier for Democrats to beat than establishment-backed Republicans). But whatever the reasons in each individual race, the trendlines at this point certainly look a lot more positive for Democrats than Republicans.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant