ChrisWeigant.com

Owning "Bidenomics"

[ Posted Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 15:59 UTC ]

President Joe Biden launched an interesting campaign strategy today -- one that wouldn't be all that remarkable for a Republican, but one that has proven somewhat tough for Democratic presidents to manage. He is going to take credit for the economy and make it a centerpiece of his efforts to convince the American electorate to give him four more years in office. And he's not doing this by halves, either, he is jumping in with both feet by embracing the term: "Bidenomics."

I have no idea how effective this will be out on the campaign trail, but it certainly is refreshing to see a Democrat at least make the attempt. Democrats generally shy away from bragging about the economy, because they are always perpetually worried about people whose situations haven't improved thinking they are "out of touch." This leads to being overly shy and too cautious about touting anything good that has been happening. Biden is looking to break out of this mold and completely own the economy, for better or for worse.

Biden does have a lot to brag about, to be sure. From a fact sheet released by the White House in advance of his speech today, here are a few of the things Biden can highlight:

While our work isn't finished, Bidenomics is already delivering for the American people. Our economy has added more than 13 million jobs -- including nearly 800,000 manufacturing jobs -- and we've unleashed a manufacturing and clean energy boom. There were more than 10 million applications for new small businesses filed in 2021 and 2022 -- the strongest two years on record. America has seen the strongest growth since the pandemic of any leading economy in the world. Inflation has fallen for 11 straight months and has come down by more than half. And we have done it all while responsibly reducing the deficit.

None of this progress was an accident or inevitable -- it has been a direct result of Bidenomics. And rather than taking us back to the failed trickle-down policies of the past, President Biden is committed to finishing the job and continuing to build an economy that finally works for working families -- with better jobs, lower costs, and more opportunity.

. . .

The Biden-Harris Investing in America agenda is rebuilding our infrastructure, including our roads and bridges, high-speed internet capacity, ports, and airports. This infrastructure is the necessary foundation for durable and shared economic growth. Thanks to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, 35,000 new projects have been awarded funding in communities all across the country. By requiring Made-in-America products when using federal funding to rebuild infrastructure, President Biden is not only investing in our country's roads and bridges, but also a strong domestic manufacturing base.

. . .

Bidenomics also recognizes that the benefits of a growing economy are only broadly shared when policies are designed to promote and empower workers. When the President took office, independent experts like the Congressional Budget Office were projecting that the unemployment rate wouldn't fall below 4% until the end of 2025. But under Bidenomics, the unemployment rate fell below 4% four years before expectations and has stayed there for the past 18 months.

We've also seen record lows in unemployment for workers who have often been left behind in previous recoveries: with record low unemployment rates achieved under this Administration for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and people with disabilities -- and a 70-year low for women. This strong labor market recovery has also led to better pay and working conditions. Inflation-adjusted income is up 3.5% since the President took office, and low-wage workers have seen the largest wage gains over the last year. Job satisfaction reached its highest level on record last year. And the prospect of good jobs has drawn people off the sidelines and into the workforce. In fact, the share of working-age Americans in the workforce hasn't been higher in more than 20 years. This strong recovery will also provide durable benefits for years to come, in part by preventing the labor market scarring that sticks with workers for generations after a recession.

That's a lot to brag about, you've got to admit. Biden continued the theme in today's speech, speaking to a Union crowd in Chicago:

I knew we couldn't go back to the same failed policies when I ran, so I came into office determined to change the economic direction of this country, to move from trickle-down economics to what everyone in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times began to call "Bidenomics."

I didn't come up with the name. I really didn't. I now claim it, but they're the ones that used it first.

I got asked by a press person this morning, getting on the helicopter in Washington, why -- "When I asked you about Bidenomics a long time ago, you said you didn't know what it was." I said, "I didn't name it Bidenomics. I didn't realize the economists in the Wall Street Journal did." But I think it's a plan that I'll -- I'm happy to call it "Bidenomics."

And guess what? Bidenomics is working. When I took office, the pandemic was raging and our economy was reeling, supply chains were broken, millions of people unemployed, hundreds of thousands of small businesses on the verge of closing after so many had already closed -- literally, hundreds of thousands on the verge of closing.

Today, the U.S. has had the highest economic growth rate, leading the world economies since the pandemic. The highest in the world.

As [Senator] Dick [Durbin] said, with his help, we created 13.4 million new jobs. More jobs in two years than any president has ever made in four -- in two.

And, folks, it's no accident. That's Bidenomics in action. Bidenomics is about building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down. And there are three fundamental changes that we decided to make with the help of Congress and been able to do it: first, making smart investments in America; second, educating and empowering American workers to grow the middle class; and third, promoting competition to lower costs to help small businesses.

. . .

When I took office, unemployment was over 6 percent. With the American Rescue Plan, we've provided relief and support directly to working-class families. Our economy came roaring back. Unemployment dipped below 4 percent by the end of my first year in office. Now it's been below 4 percent for the longest stretch in 50 years in American history.

. . .

Look, pay for low-wage workers has grown at the fastest pace in over two decades. Full employment means workers, especially low-wage workers, have even more bargaining power to demand good pay, to secure good jobs.

And this is the thing that isn't consistent with whether people think that we're moving in the right direction: Job satisfaction, based on every poll, is at a 36-year high. More people are satisfied with their jobs than any time in 36 years.

. . .

Bidenomics is about the future. Bidenomics is just another way of saying: Restore the American Dream because it worked before.

It's rooted in what's always worked best in this country: investing in America, investing in Americans. Because when we invest in our people, we strengthen the middle class, we see the economy grow. That benefits all Americans. That's the American Dream.

. . .

Well, I believe that every American willing to work hard should be able to get a job no matter where they are -- in the heartland, in small towns, in every part of this country -- to raise their kids on a good paycheck and keep their roots where they grew up. That's Bidenomics.

That's a pretty good pitch, to my ears at least. It's also consistent with the campaign Biden ran the first time around, and his general blue-collar "Joe from Scranton" political persona. The only thing that's different, at this point, is the impressive stats he can now cite, and him embracing the initially-derogatory eponym "Bidenomics" and reclaiming it and redefining it as his own.

Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular have never been shy about claiming they have created "the best economy ever," often pointing to just one economic indicator that was doing particularly well. They would brush aside any negative numbers and yank the focus back to the good news instead. This is precisely what Biden is now attempting to do.

No economy is perfect, of course. There are always a few lumps in the gravy. For Biden this has largely been the spike in inflation last year and the resulting rise in interest rates on loans and credit cards (as the Fed tries to get the inflation back under control). Biden brushed this aside as well as any Republican today, speaking about "inflation caused by Russia and by the war in Ukraine and by what was going on," and rightfully pointing out that inflation was "less than half of what it was a year ago" -- things are moving in the right direction, in other words.

Inflation is a big deal, since it is felt in so many places by just about everyone. But it has indeed noticeably calmed down -- down to 4.0 percent from the peak of 9.1 percent. If it falls again with the next monthly figures, then this means people will talk about the percentage as "three-point-something" rather than "over nine." That is a big shift in perception, even on the most negative thing about the "Bidenomics" economy. And if the economy does manage a "soft landing" with no recession, then by this time next year the Fed could actually be reducing interest rates again, which would help as well.

Joe Biden is going to have the easiest time of any president running for re-election in quite some time in making the argument: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" When Biden first ran and first took office, America was being crushed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy had fallen off a cliff. Almost everybody is better off now than they were in 2020, to put this another way. People have begun to forget even how bad it all was, which will be a test for Biden's messaging. But, as noted, this will be a fairly easy lift: "Remember lining up to buy paper towels and toilet paper? Are you better off now that that?"

Even so, it is interesting to see a Democratic president lean in to the argument so eagerly, without fretting about "appearing out of touch" the way most Democrats do. Maybe Biden is right and he actually did learn one lesson from Barack Obama's time in office -- that you've got to get out there and sell your own accomplishments, because nobody else is going to do it for you.

Depending on both how Biden handles his campaign and (even more) what the economy actually does between now and the 2024 election, embracing the concept of "Bidenomics" is either going to be seen as a brilliant political move or the punchline to a bad joke. If the economy continues to do as well as it has been doing, if inflation is back to normal and interest rates are falling, then it's going to make all the sense in the world to be proud of "Bidenomics." If, however, we are in the midst of or just exiting a recession, then it's probably not going to matter what Biden says in his campaign, he'll likely lose re-election anyway. He might as well lean in and embrace the term.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

12 Comments on “Owning "Bidenomics"”

  1. [1] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    He is going to take credit for the economy and make it a centerpiece of his efforts to convince the American electorate to give him four more years in office. And he's not doing this by halves, either, he is jumping in with both feet by embracing the term: "Bidenomics."

    It's about damn time! Best news I've read all day. :-)

  2. [2] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    If, however, we are in the midst of or just exiting a recession, then it's probably not going to matter what Biden says in his campaign, he'll likely lose re-election anyway. He might as well lean in and embrace the term.

    Democrats really do have to take the long view on the economy and talk about it terms of Republicans ALWAYS being bad for the economy and certainly not the great stewards so many mistakenly view them to be, regardless of when the US enters or exits a recession.

    Dems just need to harp on the basics that Republican administrations always get wrong. Which leads to economic messes on the order of magnitude of the Augean Stables. Which, in turn, Democratic administrations clean up. And the cycle repeats.

  3. [3] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular have never been shy about claiming they have created "the best economy ever," often pointing to just one economic indicator that was doing particularly well.

    Oh, yeah?

    Name one.

    No, seriously, name one indicator of economic well-being that can be linked to the sound tax and fiscal policy of any Republican administration since 1981 and I'll consider retiring the phrase Republican cult of economic failure.

  4. [4] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Joshua,

    Here is an interesting discussion from earlier today on the situation in Ukraine and Russia I just listened to over at the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace youtube channel ...

  5. [5] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    Re "Inflation has fallen for 11 strraight months."

    Again utter nonsense. The only thing that has "fallen" is the RATE by which prices are RISING!!

    The vast majority of retail prices are still rising everygawdam day, they'r just rising at a slightly slower rate.

  6. [6] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    The only thing that has "fallen" is the RATE by which prices are RISING!!

    I suppose that's something. :)

  7. [7] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    CRS on [5],
    It's not nonsense. You seem to be confusing inflation with the prices of goods.

    Inflation always means the *rate of rise* in prices of goods. To say inflation has fallen over the past year doesn't mean prices have fallen, and that's not what Biden meant.

    When he says inflation has come down by more than half over that period, he means prices are rising less than half as rapidly as they were a year ago. That's not a "slightly slower rate", it's a much slower rate.

  8. [8] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    John M

    Actually, the correct definition of the word "inflation", from day one of the 'science' of Economics up thru some point in the 70's, was "An unwarranted expancion of the money supply, leading to rising prices". (look it up in an old 'Webster's New Collegiate' if you can find one.)

    Then, sometime during the 70's, in the middle of one of the worst inflationary periods of U.S. history, it somehow morphed into being simply synonymous with "rising prices", and that led to a massive misunderstanding on the part of most people as to what most frequently causes rising prices.

    Now, you wish to re-define it as "The current RATE at which prices are rising."

    I'm betting most people will just stick with the new traditional "rising prices", in which case Biden deserves no credit.

  9. [9] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Unwarranted? it is a reasonable question whether the price of a cup of coffee should have flatlined at five cents and remained aligned with the intrinsic value of the silver dollar. However, since we're already living in an economy based on fiat currency, that herd of cats is already out of the bag, and low to moderate inflation is the norm. If not, how would you propose to deflate the currency without driving the country into an epic depression?

  10. [10] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    In my opinion, American inflation is like American democracy or American capitalism - the worst system in the world, except for all the others.

  11. [11] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    CRS,
    Thanks for the clarification on the drift in meaning - especially the note that the term originally related to a metaphorical expansion of the money supply, akin to an inflating balloon!

    However, I don't think I'm the only one these days who understands that the phrase "inflation has fallen" now means, in the more technical sense that you've identified, "the *rate of* inflation has fallen".

    Say we agree that inflation in and of itself means rising prices, whether by expansion of the money supply or contraction of the goods and services supply or even monopolistic profit-seeking. Inflation in this sense simply cannot fall, by definition (that would make it deflation, of course).

    But everyone from the president on down talks about rising or falling inflation and have done so for many decades now. Thus my suggestion or assertion that "inflation" has become the useable and universally understandable shorthand for "rate of inflation".

  12. [12] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    Poet [9]

    The "unwarranted" part of the traditional definition implied 'Not justified by a proportional increase in goods and services (GDP) in the market.'

    Nobody would ever recommend currency "deflation", but there is such a thing as neutrality. All you have to do is quit financing the gov't by means of creating new monwy our of rhin air and revert to conventional taxation (no budget deficits).

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