While it is certainly now going to be a one-subject week, I thought it'd be worth it to take a little pause between Trump's new federal criminal indictment and his impending arrest and arraignment tomorrow to take a look into an aspect of all of this that is (at least, for the moment) being overshadowed by Trump's new felony charges: what is happening at the state level. I will admit that I am partly doing this because I had at least three-quarters of yesterday's pre-indictment article already written, and it seems a shame to just toss it out. But now I have a larger point to make about six other states as well, which I'll get to at the end.

To begin with, though, here's what I had teed up for yesterday (the opening paragraph, obviously, is now out of date):

Michigan

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump revealed that Special Counsel Jack Smith had sent him a letter informing Trump that he was officially a target of an investigation into the events surrounding the failed insurrection attempt at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. Since then, the political world has been on "indictment watch," awaiting news that Trump has been indicted for even more criminal activity than he already has. This waiting game started with just the federal investigation led by Smith but has now grown to also include the investigation into Trump and his minions in Georgia (since she had previously cleared the courthouse schedule for the first three weeks in August). But so far, the indictments that have actually been handed down during this waiting period have all been for other cases dealing with other alleged crimes. The most recent of these dropped today in Michigan.

The New York Times has the details:

Matthew DePerno, a key orchestrator of efforts to help former President Donald J. Trump try to overturn the 2020 election in Michigan and an unsuccessful candidate for state attorney general last year, was arraigned on four felony charges on Tuesday, according to documents released by D.J. Hilson, the special prosecutor handling the investigation.

The charges against Mr. DePerno, which include undue possession of a voting machine and a conspiracy to gain unauthorized access to a computer or computer system, come after a nearly yearlong investigation in one of the battleground states that cemented the election of Joseph R. Biden Jr. as president.

Former State Representative Daire Rendon was also charged with two crimes, including a conspiracy to illegally obtain a voting machine and false pretenses.

Amusingly, the headline-writers at the Times went for a Scooby-Doo vibe, characterizing DePerno in the article's title as: "Trump Meddler in Michigan." The article goes on to provide further details:

The charges stemmed from a bizarre plot hatched by a group of conservative activists in early 2021 to pick apart voting machines in at least three Michigan counties, in some cases taking them to hotels and Airbnb rentals as they hunted for evidence of election fraud.

In the weeks after the 2020 election, he drew widespread attention and the admiration of Mr. Trump when he filed a lawsuit challenging the vote tallies in Antrim County, a rural area in Northern Michigan where a minor clerical error fueled conspiracy theories.

He falsely claimed that voting machines there had been rigged, a premise that was rejected as "idiotic" by William P. Barr, an attorney general under Mr. Trump, and "demonstrably false" by Republicans in the Michigan Senate.

These charges are in addition to the ones brought two weeks ago against the 16 "fake electors" in Michigan, which were announced on the same day Trump revealed he had gotten another target letter. Finally, justice is being served on those responsible for attempting to interfere with a presidential election. At least in Michigan (so far).

The Michigan attorney general ran against DePerno in the last election, and soundly defeated him. Democrats swept the entire Michigan elections, after the Republican Party there went all-in on election conspiracy theories and Trump's Big Lie. They paid a price at the ballot box, and now they will have to answer for their actions in a court of law. The attorney general rightfully appointed a special prosecutor to the investigation into the illegal possession of ballot machines, to avoid any conflict of interest. She issued a statement today backing up the new charges:

Dana Nessel, Michigan's attorney general and a Democrat who went on to defeat Mr. DePerno in the November election, has not been involved in the investigation since the appointment of a special prosecutor in August last year. In a statement on Tuesday, Ms. Nessel said that the allegations "caused undeniable harm to our democracy" and issued a warning for the future.

"The 2024 presidential election will soon be upon us. The lies espoused by attorneys involved in this matter, and those who worked in concert with them across the nation, wreaked havoc and sowed distrust within our democratic institutions and processes," Ms. Nessel said. "We hope for swift justice in the courts."

Interlude

At this point I would have written a conclusion, but it would have focused just on Michigan. But the indictment brought back the fact that Michigan wasn't the only state where fake electors attempted to defraud the American people. To date, the feds haven't seemed all that interested in investigating and/or prosecuting any of these people. Obviously, at this point, they've got bigger fish to fry. Which means the states are likely going to have to be the ones to bring to justice all of the people who aided and abetted Trump's election-stealing plot.

The indictment made one thing clear that hadn't previously been stated so explicitly. The electors in all of these states were told by the Trump legal team that the whole thing was just a contingency plan. Remember, the fake electors met in December, before any of the rest of it happened. They were told that the documents they'd be signing would only be used if the courts declared there had been enough doubt about the election that such alternate electors might have become legitimate.

They were lied to by Team Trump, to put this more bluntly. Even though no court ruled in Trump's favor in any way that would have cast an entire state's vote count into question, the fake certificates were sent to the federal government in exactly the same way as the legitimate certificates were sent -- but fraudulently.

The lies Team Trump told the electors might indeed be a big extenuating factor in any case brought against them. But that has yet to be determined, especially considering that what they'll be charged with is a violation of state election laws. In any case, yesterday's indictment lists in detail the seven states that did send fake electors' documents to Washington: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. So I thought a quick rundown of what is going on legally in all of these states would be helpful (presented in order of how far the process has progressed):

Georgia

Of course, the main focus in Georgia is going to be on Donald Trump. But the prosecutor putting together the case (Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis) is also reportedly interested in bringing charges against others as well, including at least some of the fake electors from her state. The timing of this is uncertain, although the window for such charges to appear is already open. Earlier in the year, the prosecutor sent a letter to the courthouse telling them to clear the first three weeks in August. One sentence from this leapt out at me:

Ms. [Fani] Willis noted in the letter that most judges would be attending a judicial conference during the week of July 31. She added: "I respectfully request that judges not schedule trials and in-person hearings during the weeks beginning Monday, Aug. 7 and Monday, Aug. 14."

This likely means the arraignment could take place during those two weeks -- which could mean the indictment won't appear before then too, although admittedly it could appear any time (this is all guesswork on my part, I admit).

Willis is reportedly considering lodging racketeering charges against at least Donald Trump, but she could expand this to other Republicans in her state who aided and abetted Trump's fraudulent electors scheme. Some of the fake electors have reportedly started cooperating with the prosecution, likely in an effort to avoid prosecution for their own role in things. But any fake electors who haven't turned state's evidence could be charged along with Trump (or independently from Trump).

Whatever the answers to all of these unknowns, we'll all likely get to see them in the next few weeks (if not "next few days"). After Trump's third arrest and arraignment dies down, this will become the next big legal/political story, no doubt.

Arizona

Arizona hasn't made as much news, but that could change at some point. A few weeks ago it was revealed that a criminal investigation had been opened into the fake elector scheme:

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D) assigned a team of prosecutors to the case in May, and investigators have contacted many of the pro-Trump electors and their lawyers, according to the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe the probe. Investigators have requested records and other information from local officials who administered the 2020 election, the two people said, and a prosecutor has inquired about evidence collected by the Justice Department and an Atlanta-area prosecutor for similar probes.

This investigation is still in its early stages, the article goes on to point out. So it could be a while before we see any charges (or any other sort of conclusion) in this investigation. But at least the process has started.

Pennsylvania and New Mexico

The fake electors in Pennsylvania and New Mexico were smart. They legally covered their hindquarters.

Instead of agreeing to the boilerplate text that was being foisted on them by the Trump legal team, the Republicans in both Pennsylvania and New Mexico who were being recruited to be false electors decided to put into writing what they were being told. The documents the fake electors signed in both states included a clause stating that the document would take effect only if Trump's challenges to the vote totals were upheld by the courts. In other words (my words, not any taken from the actual fake elector documents, to be clear): "We are alternate presidential electors who -- if the courts decide -- could take the place of the officially-certified electors, as a contingency plan."

This intelligent addition to the documents serves as a "get out of jail free" card. If the courts don't sanction it, then there is no attempt to defraud anybody or do anything illegal at all. It's just a backup plan, just in case the courts do decide Trump somehow won.

This is likely going to work exactly as designed -- even though there is a Democrat in the attorney general's office in both states, neither one of them is likely to even investigate the fake electors. Because no real crime was committed by them. They left themselves a legal "out."

Nevada and Wisconsin

There has been no news (that I am aware of, at least) out of either Nevada or Wisconsin, in terms of even opening an investigation into the fake electors there. And in both states, the attorney general is a Democrat, so the lack of interest doesn't seem to be political in nature.

Conclusion

To recap: in one state (Michigan) charges have been filed against the 16 fake electors. In another state (Georgia), such charges, against at least some of them (the uncooperative ones) could appear in the next few weeks. In a third state (Arizona), an investigation has been launched. In two states (Pennsylvania and New Mexico), the electors were smart enough to insert an "only if the courts agree" clause into their documents, which will likely save them from any prosecution. And in two states (Nevada and Wisconsin), Democratic attorneys general haven't done anything (at least not publicly).

Eventually, all of this will become a historical footnote -- no matter what the legal outcome turns out to be. The big cases will be against Donald Trump and his legal weasels. Michigan has already seen this in action, twice now. The charges against the 16 electors were announced two weeks ago -- on the same day Trump dominated the news by announcing he'd received a target letter. The election machine tampering charges were announced yesterday, and were immediately buried in the news that Trump had been indicted again.

It can be argued (and most likely will) that the Republicans who volunteered to be fake electors and signed their names to a fraudulent document that proclaimed they truly were the state's electors (which each and every one of them knew was completely false, when they signed it) were merely duped into doing so. They were told the document wouldn't be used unless the courts greenlighted such a move. But somebody sent all those documents to Washington. Somebody decided: "What the heck? Let's just send it in." If it can be proven that whoever made these decisions -- whoever took action to transport the documents to Washington in any way -- were all part of Trump's team, then arguing the electors were completely duped might hold up in court. But if any of them licked an envelope or paid for a courier service to send the documents to the constitutionally-specified recipients in Washington or in any other way facilitated the attempt to file these documents, then they may be legally liable for attempting to perpetrate a fraud on the American people. And, more to the point (for state-level prosecutions), to defraud the voters in their own states.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant