Reading The Tea Leaves In Georgia
It's another one of those days where what I write may be wildly out of date by the time I post it, I should begin by stating. Everyone in the political world is watching Atlanta right now (the hashtag "#IndictmentWatch" is trending on what used to be called Twitter), to see whether Donald Trump will be indicted at some point today or whether we'll all have to wait until tomorrow for it to be unveiled. The biggest development (outside of rampant speculation) came when the judge who will be handling any such indictment did not clear his courtroom (of journalists) at 5:00 P.M. today, indicating that the grand jury may work late and produce an indictment at some point this evening.
Plenty of witnesses either have already been presented to this grand jury, or else are awaiting their turn to testify in the courthouse. This was somewhat of a surprise to the media, who all expected these witnesses to appear tomorrow, and this is what gave rise to the anticipation that charges could appear sometime today.
Earlier today, there appeared to be a premature filing that Reuters reported -- a Fulton County document posted to the county court's website but then "quickly removed." This was apparently an incomplete charging document against "Donald John Trump," and it listed 13 felony counts. This document lists each individual charge, the statute it falls under, and the date it was committed. Here is the full list of the charges:
- Violation Of The Georgia RICO (Racketeering Influenced And Corrupt Organizations) Act
- Solicitation of Violation of Oath by Public Officer
- Conspiracy To Commit Impersonating a Public Officer
- Conspiracy To Commit Forgery in the First Degree
- Conspiracy To Commit False Statements and Writings
- Conspiracy To Commit Filing False Documents
- Conspiracy To Commit Forgery in the First Degree
- Conspiracy To Commit False Statements and Writings
- Filing False Documents
- Solicitation of Violation of Oath by Public Officer
- False Statements and Writings
- Solicitation of Violation of Oath by Public Officer
- False Statements and Writings
The last twelve of these are listed as felonies, while the first (the RICO one) is listed as a "serious felony." Now, this could turn out to have been a mistake or an early draft, so right now it should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is some indication of what charges the prosecutor may bring, whenever the actual indictment is made public. Or maybe not. An official statement was subsequently released calling the document "fictitious" and denouncing its circulation among the media, for whatever that is worth.
If the actual indictment is anywhere close to this leaked draft, Trump will face incredibly serious charges. The big question on everyone's mind before this document appeared was whether prosecutor Fani Willis was going to take the route Jack Smith took on the federal election-interference indictment, by just going for the simplest and most-easily-provable charges, or whether she was going to throw the book at Trump and charge him (and, potentially, as many as 20 others) using the state's RICO law. If the premature filing document is any indication of what the final document will be, it looks like that question has been answered -- Willis is going to swing for the fences.
As many have pointed out, Willis made her name prosecuting a few high-level RICO cases -- successfully. She knows her way around this particular law, in other words. And it does seem to be fitting, since we all heard Trump on that phone call (the one he likes to call "perfect") using the language of a mob boss to try to intimidate and coerce the state elections people to just "find 11,780 votes" for Trump. If he's going to make threats like a mob boss, then he should be tried as a political mob boss, using the law specifically designed to bring some accountability to members of organized crime.
The real unanswered question with this case as well as the federal election case against Trump is when either of them will actually get to trial. A streamlined indictment of just the most easily-provable charges would mean a speedier trial, obviously, and a standalone indictment of Trump would likewise move a lot faster through the judicial system than one with a dozen or more codefendants. There's nothing to stop Willis from filing separate indictments against the coconspirators, and trying Trump separately from them. It will be interesting to see which route Willis takes.
All of Trump's trials will likely take place next year, which (of course) is an election year. This means matching up his required appearances in court with the Republican primary schedule. So far, Trump has two civil cases already scheduled (the E. Jean Carroll case, on January 15th, and the falsified business records case in New York, on March 25th) as well as the federal criminal case over national security documents which will start at some point in the final two weeks of May. The next case to be scheduled will be the federal election-interference case, where the prosecutor has asked for the trial to start on January 2nd. All of February and April are still open, and any of these cases could be shuffled around a bit to accommodate others (court schedules aren't set in stone until the trial actually begins, it is worth pointing out).
Trump, like the rest of us, is sitting around waiting to see what is going to happen in Georgia today. Wasting no time, he's already out there on his pet social media intimidating grand jury witnesses:
In a post on his social media site Monday, [Donald] Trump said he had heard Georgia's former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan was set to testify before a grand jury in Fulton County that is expected to hand down an indictment against Trump soon.
"He shouldn't. I barely know him but he was, right from the beginning of this Witch Hunt, a nasty disaster for those looking into the Election Fraud that took place in Georgia," Trump wrote.
Duncan is in the courthouse as I write this, assumably giving testimony. [Update while editing: Duncan has now finished his testimony and left the building.] As many others have already done today. But the whole sorry episode does make one wonder what the prosecutor will ask of the judge in terms of restraining orders for Trump, going forward. So far, from all indications, Georgia is going to be different than the other three jurisdictions Trump has been indicted in. Trump won't get any special treatment here -- he will indeed be fingerprinted and have a mug shot taken, which he was able to avoid in the other cases. To put it another way, there won't be a two-tiered system of justice in Atlanta, Trump will be treated exactly the same as any other citizen officially accused of a crime and will be given no special privileges. It will be interesting to see if this attitude extends to the judge who will set the pre-trial rules for Trump as well.
And the big, exciting news (for the television networks): cameras will be allowed in the courtroom! This time, we will get to actually see the entire arraignment (and the entire trial itself, when we get to that point) happen live, instead of waiting for hours with nothing but shots of a building's exterior leavened occasionally with crowd shots of all the protestors (pro and con... and yeah, pun intended for that latter one). The arraignment could happen later this week (especially if the indictment appears tonight) or it could happen some time next week, but it'll be a lot livelier show on television whenever it happens.
One footnote to all of this that I am also wondering is whether or not the other grand jury's recommendations will be made public after Trump and any of his minions are indicted. Most of this report was withheld and/or redacted until now, since release of it could have impacted the grand jury now hearing the case (the earlier grand jury did not have the ability to bring criminal charges; this one does). After all, the first one examined the entire case for many months and assumably had the opportunity to delve into all sorts of subjects that won't be covered today. So if-and-when this report is released, it will certainly make for some interesting reading. I have no idea if it will remain under seal until after the entire court case against Trump and his henchpersons has concluded, but like I said it will be an interesting footnote to the whole story.
As I finish writing this (approaching 7:00 Eastern time), we still have no news from the courtroom. But by the time you read it, this may have changed. It's one of those days where you sit back and try to read the tea leaves while waiting for something to happen, in other words.
[More tomorrow, obviously....]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
"The social media platform that used to be Twitter" is now set to replace "The artist formerly known as Prince" as the most awkward and annoying periphrasis of our times.
Uh, something just happened....
yep, it's official.
Now, we have to hope he doesn't get re-elected POTUS.