...A Rare Three-Dot Wednesday...
We know it is not at all alliterative, but it seems the time has come for a three-dot Wednesday. We speak, of course, in honor of the undisputed king of all three-dot journalism, the late, great Herb Caen of San Francisco. It's the format Caen was the master of... where you just string together a whole bunch of little news or commentary snippets... without a whole lot of connection... into some sort of narrative column... using ellipses (three dots) to tie the whole thing loosely together. OK, that last sentence was a bit much, even we admit, so we'll try to only use the format in traditional Caen fashion from now on. Everybody ready? Then here we go...
...Donald Trump's fourth indictment in Atlanta, Georgia, may wind up being the best television of all of them (to date, at least). There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is that this time we'll have cameras inside the courtroom, so we'll all get to see every grimace and scowl on Trump's face as a judge tells him what the deal is. We'll hear Trump plead: "Not guilty," and we'll be able to watch the entire thing live from beginning to end. Which will (to political geeks like yours truly) certainly be some "must-see TV"... which will actually be true from the get-go... because...
...a secondary reason why Georgia will be better television will be the opening act. Trump will have to report to a local jail for booking, and they have indicated that they will be making precisely zero special accommodations for an ex-president. Trump will be treated just like every other accused criminal: he will be fingerprinted, mugshots will be taken, and he may even be handcuffed behind his back for much of it. That's a slice of judicial-system reality he has avoided, up until now. And for the news cameras, there will indeed be a "perp walk," since there is no underground garage or special entrance to the jail. Trump will have to park outside and walk into the building just like everyone else, almost certainly in full view of the media cameras... so there will be better television images right from the start...
...but the big question in all of this is when Trump will surrender himself. He's got until noon next Friday to do so, and the jail is reportedly open for business "24/7." So theoretically he could show up at 3:00 in the morning one night and surprise everybody. But he won't, because this is all free campaign media exposure for him. He loves mugging for the cameras ("mugshot" pun intended, there) and will likely pick his day for maximum political impact. The first Republican debate is scheduled for one week from today, and the big question there is whether Trump will even bother to show up or not. By refusing to commit either way, Trump has masterfully manipulated the media into telling his story, right up to debate night itself: whether Trump is going to show up or not. It's all about him, to put it another way, and that is just fine with Donald John Trump...
...but there is one point about the television coverage that will be interesting to watch -- whether some sort of "Trump indictment fatigue" is setting in even among his most-fervent supporters. Trump's been indicted three times now, and the crowds protesting both in support of Trump -- and in support of Trump being locked up -- seem to be shrinking. After all, the Secret Service is never going to allow Trump to give a speech to his supporters outside the courthouse, so all there is for the protesters to do is to stand outside a big downtown building and do circus tricks for the world's television cameras. Which isn't really all that much of a draw, when you think about it. Then again, maybe Georgia will be different. South Florida is its own little political universe, and New York City and Washington D.C. don't have a whole lot of Trump's base living there... but Georgia is right in the heart of the South. It's within easy driving distance of a whole bunch of rural counties, in a number of states. With the logistics of getting there and showing your face a whole lot easier, perhaps the pro-Trump crowd will be bigger this time? As we said, it's certainly something we'll be watching for... which also reminds us that Trump's surrender and the first GOP debate won't be the only political events now scheduled for next week... because...
...Trump has now announced he will be holding a press conference next Monday morning, where he will release, as he calls it: "A Large, Complex, Detailed but Irrefutable REPORT on the Presidential Election Fraud which took place in Georgia" (for good measure, he also called it "CONCLUSIVE"). What Trump has to say, at this late date, about the 2020 election that hasn't already been said before is a mystery, of course, but it's probably safe to say the report will contain nothing more than blither, moonbeams, and other assorted folderol -- since all of Trump's claims up to this point have been similarly devoid of any basis in reality. Trump predicted that this blockbuster report will change everything: "all charges should be dropped against me & others -- There will be a complete EXONERATION!" Needless to say, other outcomes are also possible. Ty Cobb, who used to work for Trump as a White House lawyer, had a different sort of prediction: "This is, you know, generating chaos. I mean, frankly, there's a good chance that whatever document he produces ends up as evidence against him. It could even end up as the basis for an obstruction count against the author because it's likely to be fiction and solely for the purpose of contaminating the jury pool." One way or another, Trump's Monday report will certainly be brought up on the debate stage on Wednesday, exactly as Trump intended...
...not that he really needs the exposure or anything. At least, not so far. There has been no public opinion poll yet released which was conducted solely after the Georgia indictment, so we don't even have a snap reaction from the Republican base on all this (yet). One poll released today had an interesting number -- how many Americans will not be voting for Trump next year. A small majority (53 percent) said they definitely would not be voting for him, and a further 11 percent said they probably wouldn't be voting for him. That adds up to 64 percent of the public who has either already decided or is likely to decide not to vote for Trump in 2024. Which would be devastating to any other politician, but Trump is Trump, and this certainly isn't showing up in the GOP polling yet. As a snapshot of the Republican base polling before the fourth indictment news is processed by the voters, Trump is just as strong as ever, averaging 54.8 percent in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls. Ron DeSantis continues to fall (down to 14.6 percent), but his last four polls have been a bit above that, so perhaps he has hit bottom (for now, at any rate). All the other candidates are in the mid-single-digits, with Vivek Ramaswamy currently leading the pack at 6.1 percent, followed by Mike Pence, who is holding on with 5.3 percent. All the rest poll below four percent and aren't even worth mentioning, at this point. Maybe someone will make a big splash in the debates, though. For now, Trump is exactly as dominant in the Republican primary race as he has always been.
Which is perhaps a good place to end this disjointed overview. So until next time (which will likely happen on the more-traditional Tuesday or Thursday, but you never know...), we will put away our box of spare ellipses and stop reporting politics like it is celebrity news on page three. But hey, it's the political Silly Season, right? So who knows... they could return quite soon... we'll just have to wait and see....
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
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