Nikki Haley, upon finishing third in the Iowa caucuses last night, had a rather bizarrely optimistic pronouncement. It ranks right up there with Bill Clinton proclaiming himself "The Comeback Kid" after finishing only second in New Hampshire, in fact (although, to be fair, Clinton's spin-job worked wonders for him). Here's what Haley had to say last night: "I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race." The audience reportedly applauded and cheered.

She's right... but only if you take out two words from her sentence. Because the correct summation of the Iowa results is actually: "I can safely say tonight Iowa made this a two-person race." Those two people, however (sorry, Nikki), are Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The primaries are over before they have even begun. The general election race is now underway. And much to most Americans' dismay, it is going to be a rematch of 2020.

Many voters are still in a state of heavy denial over this situation. That's completely understandable, since a vast majority of them (according to public opinion polls) do not want to see this rematch. Joe Biden has not seriously annoyed large swaths of the Democratic base while he's been in office, but he is just so old. Donald Trump is... well, Donald Trump. There are many on both sides of the aisle who would have much preferred a general election contest between, say, Nikki Haley and Gretchen Whitmer rather than a rehash of 2020. But that's not what they're going to get, and the time for pretending any of it is going to magically change somehow is just about over.

As I said, there is a pervasive sense of denial out there. Democratic voters simply cannot believe that anyone would still vote for Donald Trump. His negatives are so obvious, so blatant, so in-your-face that it is inconceivable how goodly American citizens can still support him. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans are incredulous that Democrats would allow Biden to simply waltz to the nomination unopposed, when he had promised to be a transitional president and when he is just so old. Or they are completely delusional and buy into the fake narrative that Biden is somehow running the "Biden Crime Family" from the Oval Office (a theme that Fox News et al blast out to them on a daily basis).

But barring some sort of grand deus ex machina event, the primary race is pretty much over. We are going to get "Biden v. Trump II" (or "2.0", if you're tech-minded).

Haley was almost right, in a technical sort of way. The Republican primary race is now down to a three-person race. After Iowa's results were announced, both Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson suspended their campaigns. This only leaves Trump, Haley, and Ron DeSantis. But because DeSantis beat Haley by a few percentage points, he probably isn't going to immediately drop out before the next few states vote. If he had been bested by Haley, perhaps his political calculation would have been different, but his heavy investment in the state paid off for him. DeSantis has no real path to victory, of course. He is not going to win New Hampshire or South Carolina. He's not even going to come in second in either one. But his continued presence in the race denies Haley the slim chance to make her wish (a two-person race between her and Trump) actually come true.

Haley is experiencing a bump in the New Hampshire polls, but so far it hasn't been a big enough bump to overcome Trump's lead. If DeSantis had pulled out, Haley conceivably could have overtaken Trump in New Hampshire, but with DeSantis still in the race this is probably not going to happen. So the best Haley can do is probably going to be second in New Hampshire and third in Iowa. That's not much of a challenge to Trump's dominance.

The next contest on the GOP calendar is just going to confuse everybody. Nevada moved to change from a caucus to a primary this election cycle, but the Republican Party balked at the change. So the state will hold a GOP primary on February 6th and then two days later the state GOP will hold their own caucus. And they were so miffed they wrote it into the rules that any candidate who filed for the primary ballot wouldn't be eligible to run in the caucuses. The caucuses are what determine the actual delegates to the Republican National Convention, meaning the primary is completely pointless. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump will compete in the caucuses, while Nikki Haley will be on the primary ballot.

How will the media report it all? That remains to be seen. Nevada is usually largely ignored by the national media (and the national polling organizations as well), so perhaps the story will be a minor one no matter what. But Haley could get two days of "Haley Wins Big In NV Primary" headlines before the actual contest to select the delegates takes place. That could conceivably boost her, as she's already shown she is not afraid of hyperbolic spin about what results mean.

But then there will be a lag period of a few weeks before the next contest. And the next one is Haley's own home state, South Carolina. She is polling a solid second in the state, but also far behind Trump. Losing her own state may be the end of the road for Haley, although she could conceivably tough it out until Super Tuesday. If Trump beats her, the storyline is going to be: "If she can't even beat Trump in her home state -- with the voters that know her best -- then how is she going to beat him anywhere else?" Which is indeed a valid question to ask.

The media may still be desperately writing horserace stories right up to the South Carolina primary, but afterwards it's going to be hard to come up with any conceivable path to victory for either Haley or DeSantis. Any challenger with a shot is going to have to fight Trump to a draw (either in states won or in delegates) on Super Tuesday. That would truly shake up the race. But at this point it is almost impossible to imagine that actually happening. The Republican base is so solidly behind Trump it would take an absolute political earthquake to change any of it. And "I won a meaningless primary in Nevada" wouldn't qualify as even a tremor.

A lot of the stories written today about the Iowa results and Trump are using the word "coronation." This seems particularly apt, since it not only sums up what seems like Trump's easy path to victory, but it also has royal connotations (Trump really does want to be a king and not a president, after all).

Meanwhile, Joe Biden is likewise going to coast to victory in the Democratic contest. And while there will be third-party and independent candidates in the mix for the general election, when considering the major two parties -- barring any exceptional circumstances -- Nikki Haley is right. It's now a two-person race. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but living in denial can't really last much longer. Because whether you're ready for it or not, 2024 is now the Trump-Biden election.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant