Snoozer Tuesday
I sit writing this while proudly wearing my "I Voted!" sticker, after doing my civic duty by participating in my state's primary election. Today is the traditional day marking the end of the "early-voting" phase, when the primary season is flung wide open to any state willing to move to the front of the line. California did so a while back, joining over a dozen other "Super Tuesday" states. But while I am more immersed in the political world than most, I find it hard to get even a little excited today. After all, everybody knows what's going to happen and both horseraces were really over before they even began.
Donald Trump is going to become the nominee of the Republican Party and the Democrats are going to nominate President Joe Biden again. This has been plainly obvious for months and months. There have been no surprises and no upsets. The general election cycle has already effectively begun.
Sure, there are down-ballot races to pay attention to, which will at least partially fill the wonky need to watch the results come in tonight. Will our Senate race be between two Democrats or (much more likely) between one Democrat and a Republican? Either way, Adam Schiff is the clear favorite to become our next senator. Other races across the country will generate some attention, most likely. Will Representative Lauren Boebert win her primary after carpetbagging to a new district or will she be on her way out? That will at least be interesting to watch.
But for the first time in my personal memory at least, the presidential primary season has just become downright boring. Usually I write many columns about each primary day as it approaches and even try to predict the outcomes of all the races in advance. This year I haven't bothered to do so -- because it would be so boring. "How much will Trump win by?" is not nearly as exciting as "Which candidate is going to win which states?" I will occasionally glance at the returns as they come in tonight, but with no sense of urgency or excitement at all. That's a big difference from a normal presidential year.
The biggest political news this week isn't going to come from the Super Tuesday states. We've already had one blockbuster Supreme Court decision, mandating that states cannot remove Donald Trump from their ballots using the clear language of the Fourteenth Amendment, and today we got the news that Kyrsten Sinema will not be running for re-election to the Senate (which is something I've been predicting for a long time). Later this week Joe Biden will give the State Of The Union speech to Congress and they may (no promises) actually pass at least part of the federal budget they were supposed to have passed last September. Or maybe they won't, and we'll have a partial government shutdown. All of these will likely be bigger stories in the political world than whatever margins Biden and Trump run up tonight.
In any normal presidential election year, at least one of the races is an open one. In a year after a president's second term, both of the races are open to some extent or another (even if the outgoing president tries to name an heir, sometimes the voters don't agree). There is usually a hard-fought contest between multiple candidates, each making the case for their own political agenda. Debates are held, so voters can see the major candidates attempt to think on their feet. Different factions are wooed and creative ideas are introduced.
None of that took place this time around. For once, we have two incumbents running -- both of whom effortlessly cleared their party's field. Donald Trump didn't even bother to show up for the Republican debates, which relegated them to kiddie-table status. The entire field of non-Trump Republicans seemed to be running more to perhaps be named Trump's veep candidate than with any expectation of actually beating Trump. Ron DeSantis was lionized by the media but crashed and burned when he had to actually get out on the campaign trail. Nikki Haley never truly caught fire. And all the rest fell away, one by one.
Trump has never felt bound by American political tradition, so it's not all that surprising that he is running for a third time. Normally a candidate who lost a presidential race would never be considered a viable candidate the next time around, but Trump defied that logic by insisting (falsely, without a shred of evidence) that he had actually won in 2020. He's never wavered from this, and most of the Republican voters believe this fantasy as well. So why wouldn't he run again, since (in his fantasy) he never lost?
Of course, the November election will be a momentous one and at this juncture it looks like it's going to be a nail-biter. There will be plenty of excitement later in the year, to put this another way. Third-party candidates will be in the mix, which will make it very hard to predict outcomes in any swing states.
But that's all going to happen later....
For now, we certainly do encourage everyone to go vote, either today or on whatever day your state holds its primary. But you'll have to forgive us if we can't shake the feeling that this is really "Snoozer Tuesday," because there sure doesn't seem to be a super amount of excitement out there.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I voted too, even though there were no contested elections on my ballot. It's way too soon to say that there will be no surprises this primary season. It's just that the surprises, if any, will begin with a medical one, not an electoral one.
"Nail-biter" is no word for the very real possibility that Trump will win. I keep hoping that at some point, the Democrats will realize that they are headed for a very possible loss, and that a delegation of Senators will tell Biden they don't support him and he must step aside. I don't normally wish physical harm on anyone, but I find myself praying that Biden will have some kind of giant medical surprise. On the other hand, I wish Trump good health, because a younger and less crazy Republican would easily win over Biden. I forget which pundit said, Whichever candidate steps aside, that candidate's party will win.
Errata:
looks like CO holds a separate primary for other offices than president, so we won't know about Boebert until June 25... oops! Mea culpa...
-CW
andygaus -
I hadn't heard this "Whichever candidate steps aside, that candidate's party will win." but it may well be true... kind of stunning to think about it that way...
-CW
I seem to remember someone here predicting a unanimous or near-unanimous ruling in the Colorado case. Wait, that was me...
The biggest political news this week isn't going to come from the Super Tuesday states.
Nikki Haley will throw in the towel.
andygaus
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I forget which pundit said, Whichever candidate steps aside, that candidate's party will win.
In early February, Haley was on the campaign trail claiming repeatedly that in 30 days Biden would not be the nominee:
I hadn't heard this "Whichever candidate steps aside, that candidate's party will win." but it may well be true...
I believe that phrase is neither true nor in the realm of seriousness.
andygaus,
I keep hoping that at some point, the Democrats will realize that they are headed for a very possible loss, and that a delegation of Senators will tell Biden they don't support him and he must step aside. I don't normally wish physical harm on anyone, but I find myself praying that Biden will have some kind of giant medical surprise.
Unintentionally hilarious. Because you seem to be of the view that anyone but Biden can beat Trump. Perhaps you surmise that Kamala can. Heh.
If anyone dares try to convince Biden to step aside, it sure as Hell ain't gonna be a delegation of Senators!
I find the assessments of Biden coming from this normally astute crowd to be quite astonishing. Granted that I have been wholly disillusioned by Biden's less than stellar foreign policy, there is no better Democrat to run for president in his place this November.
What could be infinitely better is who ends up as his running mate for a second term. I believe there is still time for that sort of change to the ticket but, alas, I have no idea who should replace vice president Harris. It would have to be someone who would engender positive excitement and who would be presidential material and it shouldn't matter if the pick is a female or male or what colour he or she is.
Hmmm. Just had a thought ...
... can a former two-term president serve as vice president? I'm just sayin' ...
Lastly, I find myself hoping that bad karma doesn't find its way to you, andygaus.
[2]
Yeah, so where is Trump going to find the votes? Trump trashed our economy, our reputation abroad, our institutions including the peaceful transfer of power and a half million Americans are needlessly dead of Covid. Throw in his legal issues and Republican incompetence and Dobbs and I see a blue tsunami.
Furthermore, Haley averaged about a third of Republican primary voters leaving Trump with two thirds.
In contrast, Biden did better than 80% with Democrats so Democratic enthusiasm for Biden is stronger than is Trump’s.