First Debate Will Be All About Style Over Substance
Two weeks from tomorrow, CNN will host the first general election presidential debate of the 2024 cycle. This is unprecedented, because it will happen so early in the campaign season. In fact, neither person on stage will officially be their party's nominee at this point, since the conventions will happen afterwards. It will be "Presumptive Republican Nominee Donald Trump" versus "Presumptive Democratic Nominee President Joe Biden." That alone sets it off from every other televised presidential debate.
So far, only two debates are planned, which makes the first one more important than usual. What everyone is really waiting to learn is what the ground rules of the debate will actually be -- will microphones be cut off when the other candidate is talking, for instance? What ground rules CNN lays down (and how closely they hew to them) is going to be a critical factor in what type of debate the American public gets to see.
Donald Trump loves nothing more than to "win" a debate by being the biggest blowhard anyone has ever seen. He yells over the other candidates, he spews a firehose of lies, and he refuses to admit any reality that isn't part of his bizarre worldview. Other candidates have never quite known what to do when on a stage next to Trump, in fact.
Joe Biden did about as good as anyone, the last time the two men debated. The first debate was a mess -- the moderator was just way too open to allowing Trump to talk all over everything and never let anyone else get a word in edgewise. But the second debate was much more restrained, and Biden certainly gave as good as he got in it.
Questions of logistics aside, though, one thing that seems certain is that this will not be any kind of normal presidential debate. That's pretty much a given, with Trump participating. There will be no minds changed because of which policy ideas each candidate champions. It's going to be a personality-fest more than any sort of sober debate about political principles.
If it were about policy, the public might actually care about recent new policies both men have rolled out. Joe Biden wants to prevent medical debt from being included in people's credit rating reports, while Donald Trump wants all tips not to be taxed as income. Both of these are pretty reasonable ideas, and neither one seems particularly partisan in any way (reverse the names, and if each candidate had proposed what the other one did it wouldn't exactly be shocking in any way). But even if these ideas are brought up in the debate, it's doubtful whether it'll change any voters' minds all that much. Biden could easily respond: "Tax-free tips sounds like a reasonable idea, I'd be open to that," while Trump could say the same about medical debt.
Tax policy in general is going to be an enormous issue in Congress next year. It may consume most of their calendar, in fact. All the Trump tax cuts are expiring, so if Congress doesn't act next year they will all disappear entirely. Biden wants to keep the tax cuts for those making under $400,000 a year while raising taxes on corporations and the ultra-wealthy, while Trump is totally on board the Republican tax-cutting train. But voters are almost universally unaware that this giant legislative fight is even waiting in the wings, so it likely won't be all that big a deal in the election (even though it probably should be).
Of course, there are much more contentious issues at play. Hot-button subjects like abortion and border/immigration policies will almost certainly provide some fireworks at some point during the evening. Perhaps the public will benefit from hearing each candidate's defense of their position on the issues, but most people who have been paying even the slightest attention already know where they stand and what they'll likely say.
The biggest fireworks of the night will doubtlessly come on personal issues. Trump is certain to attack Biden in very personal schoolyard-bully ways, and Biden will (hopefully) come prepared with his own smackdowns and zingers to respond with. Trump now being a convicted felon will doubtlessly come up at some point, as will Joe's son Hunter now also being a convicted felon. These attacks could get quite vicious.
I came across a quote worth repeating today, because it sums up perfectly one aspect of how the public sees Trump:
Horror movies become less scary each time they are watched, and Americans have viewed the Donald Trump horror show on repeat for nearly a decade. The villain does not change, but the viewer's response calms dramatically. No matter what Trump says or does, Americans have seen this movie before, and we've seen it so many times that what once shook us at our core is now just background noise.
Joe Biden is hoping that watching this particular horror movie again will remind a whole bunch of people who the villain really is and how distasteful it was to have him in the news every single day. But to effectively do that, he's got to be prepared.
I don't mean prepared in the classic sense of memorizing a bunch of talking points to sell the public on your political agenda. I mean prepared for who Trump is now. Biden (or his debate-prep team at the very least) should be endlessly watching recent Trump rally footage right now. Trump isn't a policy wonk, he's closer to a stand-up comic. He tries things out. He sticks a few lines in his normal speech to see how the crowd will react to it. If it's a dud, he drops the whole thing. If people cheer, he strengthens it and leans into it. Biden's got to be ready for the things Trump has recently been leaning into.
It's also good prep since it will allow Team Biden to identify some whopping big lies Trump has been telling. On abortion, for instance, Trump keeps repeating that Democrats somehow want to allow abortions not just up to the moment of birth but beyond. This is not true, this never has been true, and it is a vicious lie. But so far, nobody's ever called Trump on it, so he thinks it is gospel truth. Biden's got to be ready to cut Trump off at the knees when he says ridiculous stuff like this. He's got to have his own put-down handy and ready to go. It's pretty easy to identify all of Trump's go-to lies, since he repeats them whenever given the chance. But he's been doing so inside an echo chamber where nobody ever dares to correct him in any way. Biden's got to be the one to forcefully do so.
In the end, this debate is going to be "won" or "lost" on style points. Trump and the Republicans have convinced themselves that (as Trump often says) Joe Biden "can't string two sentences together" when not reading a prepared speech. That's a pretty low bar for Biden to clear, you've got to admit. Trump also is presenting himself as being mentally much more on the ball than Biden, but he's also given to saying some awfully bizarre things and mangling words and slurring them and generally getting lost within his own speeches. If Trump has a few of these rambling moments during the debate -- and if Biden pounces on them immediately -- it could go a long way towards undermining the perception of Trump and Biden with the public.
Biden can be a feisty debater. He has surprised many with his strong debate performances in the 2020 election cycle, both against Democrats and then against Trump. The first debate will be the first time many voters even tune in to the presidential race at all, so the opportunity exists for Biden to make a great impression on people, and for people to be reminded all over again of the horror show that is Trump. But my guess is that it won't be because of any brilliant or logical debate point either one of them scores, it'll be how they handle each other stylistically instead.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
It will also be about who wins the spin after the debate.
Well, they're both very good at that!
If Hunter Biden somehow gets nominated as the Democratic candidate for some contested office on my ballot, well first of all, Bertrand Russell and I will both be the Pope. Hunter Biden isn't going to run for anything, he wouldn't be nominated if he did, it wouldn't be in my state, and no elections on a typical general-election ballot are contested in a non-swing state. But if he somehow did, I would probably vote for him. The Republican Party is that bad.
CW
In fact, neither person on stage will officially be their party's nominee at this point, since the conventions will happen afterwards.
Okay, but one of them is officially the current President of the United States, and -- shhhhhhhh -- nobody tell the right-wingnut QAnon conspiracy and MAGA cult lunatics that it isn't the one they believe it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oXZXT3D0UE
It will be "Presumptive Republican Nominee Donald Trump" versus "Presumptive Democratic Nominee President Joe Biden."
CLOTUS versus POTUS: Convicted Loser of the United States versus President of the United States.
That alone sets it off from every other televised presidential debate.
Sure does.
I'm also a big believer in presidents who don't surround themselves with a plethora of co-conspirators, aides, and legislators requesting preemptive pardons... and have a revolving door of actual convicts:
* Paul Manafort: Trump's former campaign chairman who was charged, convicted/pleaded guilty, and sentenced to prison for multiple crimes, primarily tax fraud and defrauding banks and the government.
* Rick Gates: Trump's former campaign vice chairman who was charged, convicted, and sentenced to prison for criminal financial schemes and lying to federal investigators but did help with evidence in the multiple felony convictions of Paul Manafort and Roger Stone.
* Michael Cohen: Trump's former personal lawyer/fixer who was charged, pleaded guilty, and sentenced to prison for multiple crimes including tax evasion, lying to Congress at Trump's direction, and campaign finance violations in connection with arranging hush money payments for Trump in a conspiracy coverup but did cooperate in the 34 guilty verdicts of Convicted Felon Donald Trump.
* Roger Stone: Trump's former adviser and former campaign aide who was charged, convicted, and sentenced to prison for multiple counts of witness tampering and false statements.
* Peter Navarro: Trump's former adviser and former White House aide who was charged, convicted, and is currently in prison for criminal contempt of Congress.
* George Papadopoulos: Trump's former campaign adviser who was charged and pleaded guilty of lying to the FBI and sentenced to prison.
* Allen Weisselberg: The Trump Organization's former Chief Financial Officer who was charged, convicted, and sentenced to prison for multiple crimes related to The Trump Organization, released and now currently in prison again for committing perjury for Trump during his most recent civil fraud trial wherein Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., Eric Trump et alia were found liable for more than half a billion dollars for fraud against the People of the State of New York.
* Michael Flynn: Trump's former White House national security advisor who was charged and convicted for lying to the FBI.
* Steve Bannon: Trump's former chief strategist who was charged with wire fraud and money laundering and also charged and convicted in a contempt of Congress case similar to Peter Navarro. He's been ordered to prison on July 1, 2024.
* Elliot Broidy: Trump's vice chair of his inaugural committee and deputy national finance chairman of the RNC who pleaded guilty to federal charges related to illegal lobbying. Michael Cohen also participated in yet another hush money coverup of Broidy's affair with a Playboy model.
* Kenneth Chesebro: Trump's lawyer associated with his efforts to illegally keep Trump in power via conspiracy to commit fraud and fake electors scheming in multiple states, who pleaded guilty to crimes related to the 2020 election.
* Sidney Powell: Trump's lawyer associated with her efforts to illegally keep Trump in power via conspiracy to commit fraud and fake electors scheming in multiple states, who pleaded guilty to crimes related to the 2020 election.
* Jenna Ellis: Trump's lawyer associated with her efforts to illegally keep Trump in power via conspiracy to commit fraud and fake electors scheming in multiple states, who pleaded guilty to crimes related to the 2020 election.
* The Trump Organization: Trump's business found criminally liable for multiple crimes including charges of criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records connected to a 15-year scheme to defraud tax authorities by failing to report and pay taxes on compensation for top executives.
Those are just the closely associated convictions (to date); it would take quite a lot more bandwidth to list those persons who armed themselves in various assorted ways and physically assaulted and maimed over one hundred police officers on 1/6 at the incitement of Donald Trump and multiple co-conspirators.
So, to recap:
* Convicted Felon Donald Trump is currently awaiting sentencing for being charged and convicted on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records in the first degree due to coverup of other crimes including election fraud beginning in 2015 (a pattern of election fraud that would continue into the 2020 election... you're welcome DA Fani Willis).
* I like presidents who weren't convicted.
dsws
3
If Hunter Biden somehow gets nominated as the Democratic candidate for some contested office on my ballot, well first of all, Bertrand Russell and I will both be the Pope.
Ergo Benedictus PP. XVI and Franciscus!
Hunter Biden isn't going to run for anything, he wouldn't be nominated if he did, it wouldn't be in my state, and no elections on a typical general-election ballot are contested in a non-swing state.
Quod erat demonstrandum.
But if he somehow did, I would probably vote for him. The Republican Party is that bad.
But how!? Doesn't matter. Republicans definitely are that bad, and suddenly I find myself infinitely persuadable. :)
@kick,
twelve apostles? wow, donald really IS like jesus.
JL
I don’t think this first debate will move the needle in the least because we’re still five months out from the election, both men are totally known quantities — just who hasn’t made up their mind about Trump? And I don’t think Trump’s handlers will even let him debate, you watch.
I think there are a lot of people who dislike both candidates, and dislike politics in general, but sort of feel that it's their patriotic duty to vote. Most of them aren't undecided about which to vote for if they vote, only about whether to vote. The debate won't influence them directly, but it may nudge the level of disgust with politics among the acquaintances of their acquaintances, which would filter through to them.
The debate may change a lot of minds if people see on uncensored national television just how Trump's mind switches on and off in midsentence: "When I am president, I will use Title 42 to stop try...we have to do this."