Democrats' Crisis Of Confidence
The Democratic Party is now in a full-blown crisis of confidence. Part of this is media-fed, since writing "Democrats In Disarray" columns comes so naturally to most pundits, but it really goes a lot deeper than that. There are real worries out there that President Joe Biden is not going to be up to the task of defeating Donald Trump. There were worries about that before the debate, actually, since his poll numbers have been so anemic for so long. But after America saw Biden stumble through a 90-minute debate with Trump, these worries have gotten a whole lot more acute and immediate.
Something missing from much of the media commentary is something I hear a lot from actual voters. The question to them isn't whether Joe Biden is up to the task of being president right now (or through Election Day), it is instead whether he will still be up to that task three or four years from now. After all, we are electing a president not just for the short term, but for another four-year term in office. Is there anyone out there who is supremely confident that Biden will be mentally sharp and decisive at this point in the year 2028? Because what I am hearing is a lot of doubt on that key point. Whatever his current mental state is, four more years of the toughest job in the world is going to take a toll.
Look at the difference between Biden while he was running in 2020 and how he is now. That is the toll one term in office has already taken on the man. What will he be like at the end of his second term?
It is little known to the general public these days, but America did have a president for a while who was not exactly compos mentis. In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson suffered a stroke. From that point until he left office in January of 1921, Wilson was virtually incapacitated. His wife Edith and his physician were really the only ones who dealt with Wilson for his remaining time in office. Edith Wilson has even been referred to as "the first woman president" the country has had, since she took control of all her husband's duties for over a year.
Joe Biden, of course, has not suffered a stroke. He is not fully incapacitated. His wife Jill is not running the country for him. But once again, we are contemplating electing Biden for another four years. This means we have to at least consider some rather drastic future scenarios. Including one in which those around Joe Biden conceal his true mental condition from the rest of the country. And one in which his loyal cabinet members refuse to remove him even if he is incapacitated. Joe Biden, if he wins a second term, will be 86 years old when he leaves office. And watching his team circle the wagons around Joe after that debate does not inspire confidence that they are going to level with the American public about Joe's condition with complete honesty in the future.
It's not a matter of just "one bad night," which is how Team Biden is excusing last Thursday's disastrous debate performance. It's how many bad days and nights he has, and how often. And right now nobody outside his immediate circle knows the honest answer to that.
Joe Biden, from all accounts, is a stubborn guy. People pushing him to do things he doesn't want to do merely makes him dig his heels in and resist harder. This is a situation many American family members have faced, when it comes time to having an intervention with an aging close relative. Even if everyone knows it is time to take the car keys away or even make the big move to assisted living, it's never easy to tell that to a beloved parent (or grandparent or other relative). Often, the response is sheer stubbornness. Now imagine having that same conversation, except with the nuclear codes being taken away rather than the car keys.
Joe Biden has a very short window where he can turn things around for his campaign. He's already beginning to see slippage in the polls, and more and more Democrats are openly voicing doubts about the wisdom of keeping Biden as the party's presidential nominee. One good rally the day after the debate was not enough to stop all of this. One good interview could, at least to some extent, which is why the critical moment for Joe Biden might come this Friday. Biden has scheduled a sit-down interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, and his entire campaign's future may very well hang in the balance.
If Biden does well, he could at least dampen the calls for him to drop out of the race. But if he does poorly, he is likely toast. If he can't coherently discuss the issues of the day with a journalist for an extended period of time then he is not going to be up to the task of either being president for another four years or defeating Donald Trump this November.
Many Democrats are wholly focused on defeating Donald Trump right now. If Biden can just do that, they figure, the rest of it will work itself out. Perhaps Joe may have to step down at some point (or be forced out using the 25th Amendment), but we can deal with that problem when it happens. Vice President Kamala Harris will be there to take over, if need be. But for that to happen, his cabinet would have to essentially depose him, and his cabinet has been remarkably stable and loyal in his first term. Will they be up to the task of standing up to Biden should the need arise in the future? Or will Dr. Jill run the country for the remainder of his term, if Joe proves not to be up to the task anymore?
These are very hard questions to even ask. And this is not the conversation a political party wants to have with a presidential election staring them in the face. Which is why Democrats are now in a full-blown crisis of confidence. Every path forward is risky. Making the wrong choice could lead to disaster.
I for one will be watching that ABC interview on Friday with concern. It will really be Joe Biden's last chance to calm the waters and reassure his supporters. If he is not up to the task of doing so, then he is not up to the task of winning this election, plain and simple.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
The question to them isn't whether Joe Biden is up to the task of being president right now (or through Election Day), it is instead whether he will still be up to that task three or four years from now.
Who the heck cares if he'll be up to the job in three or four years!? Let's just get him re-elected and buy some precious time for potential Dem presidential candidates to get up to speed on their own presidential ambitions because none of them are there yet.
Even I don't expect Biden to continue through to 2028. It may even be wise for him to announce an early retirement in 2026 now, before November ... with props to Joshua for stealing part of his idea.
@CW,
have you been reading the comments?
If Biden can just do that, they figure, the rest of it will work itself out. Perhaps Joe may have to step down at some point (or be forced out using the 25th Amendment), but we can deal with that problem when it happens. Vice President Kamala Harris will be there to take over, if need be. But for that to happen, his cabinet would have to essentially depose him, and his cabinet has been remarkably stable and loyal in his first term. Will they be up to the task of standing up to Biden should the need arise in the future? Or will Dr. Jill run the country for the remainder of his term, if Joe proves not to be up to the task anymore?
Okay, I call absolute nonsense on all of that! Time to unclench the anuses and start fighting back against the real enemy.
Seriously, Biden won't have to be carried out of the WH kicking and screaming once he is re-elected. But, I'm not at all surprised by the non-serious scenario outlined above. Because, let's face it, there are precious few real Biden fans around here, since 2008.
@liz,
if the goal of the change is to move the needle for the election this november, two years may be too much to have a real impact - unless the regular monitoring of his health were conducted by someone (if you'll pardon the pun) truly unimpeachable. otherwise the republican counters practically write themselves.
I for one will be watching that ABC interview on Friday with concern. It will really be Joe Biden's last chance to calm the waters and reassure his supporters. If he is not up to the task of doing so, then he is not up to the task of winning this election, plain and simple.
So will I!
If Biden proves that he is not up to the task, then it's game over for Democrats and best of luck to you all and the rest of us under a second Trump administration. At least, that is what I believe the only two options are at this late stage of the game.
Joshua[4],
I'm having some trouble understanding what you're saying there...would you clarify, please.
the attention span of the electorate rivals that of a fruit fly.
in general, campaign promises to do something more than a year in the future tend to be conveniently forgotten, or never believed to begin with. although Joe would almost certainly be honorable about it and keep his word, from the point of view of a "swing" voter such a commitment would likely ring hollow.
I see.
Chris, and all my American friends,
Wishing you all a wonderful Independance Day!
Hoping you all will be able to put politics aside for this day and just have fun, listen to some great music or play your own, and reflect on all of the reasons why it's great to be an American!
Again, any Democratic senator or governor would be a vastly better president than Trump will, and anyone not named Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating Trump than Biden does. Whitmer, Newsom, and Shapiro are all reasonable options.
Again, I disagree, wholeheartedly, Dan.
if they had begun the year as the nominee then sure. but putting one of them in there now, after the primary voting is done, would be political suicide not just for the presidency but also down-ballot. yes, local candidates run stronger than the president does, but that is with the president still on the ballot. do you really think jon tester would be more likely to hold on to his Senate seat if the presidential nominee were Gavin Newsom?
But, you may be right. I'm not going to think anymore about it until tomorrow. :)
[13] was actually meant for Dan.
Thanks, Elizabeth we yanks appreciate that. Hope we get to celebrate this next year.
It’s late enough. I pronounce an end to the Democrat’s week from hell.
Hear! Hear!
Joshua,
The more I think about your idea, the more I like it, with some relatively minor tweaks.
Everyone I've heard talk about the need for Biden to step aside are now all saying that it's not about one bad debate or whether Biden has had some episodes or he has a condition.
It is now about whether he can govern for four and a half years! And, there's never any pushback about why he has to be able to govern for four and a half years.
I still don't really like your timeline, though. And, I have questions about the current vice president automatically taking the reins and how would you go about having a mini primary, making her run in that primary ... and, then, what about choosing a running mate???
I think maybe a guest column is in order for you to flesh all of this out!
Of course the coattails would be more favorable with a not-guaranteed-to-lose candidate at the top of the ticket. With a contrast between a senile candidate and a not-senile candidate, people will vote who won’t bother with two senile candidates.
Or rather, with two senile candidates and no possibility of having the one they dislike less win.
And it doesn't matter whether Biden really is senile or just slowing down a bit and occasionally having a bad day, because everyone "knows" that he's senile.
@liz,
100 days, 6 months, 1 year, whatever. I just believe that any more than one year won't read like a genuine admission that Joe really is slowing down, and might slow down more.
as far as vice-presidential succession goes, my initial idea was just that Kamala would be president and "whoever happens to be speaker of the house" at the agreed upon date would become VP. I haven't really thought through the logistics; it was just a wild brainstorm, after all.
JL
Well, what about a year and a half ... so that there is time then before the mid-terms and yet not making the retirement announcement too soon.