ChrisWeigant.com

Friday Talking Points -- It's Time To Go, Joe

[ Posted Friday, July 5th, 2024 – 16:21 UTC ]

[Program Note: Once again, this week we are dispensing with our normal Friday format, as it truly was a one-issue week, and this made it all but impossible to come up with our usual awards and talking points. Instead, we have to weigh in on the subject at hand, because it is so important.]

 

This week, the nation celebrated its 248th birthday. (Feel free to insert a "Biden's so old" joke here, if you wish....)

It's been a rather excruciating week, aside from enjoying the fireworks last night. The entire political media universe has been completely consumed with the question of whether President Joe Biden is the best candidate to take on Donald Trump, or whether he should instead gracefully step aside and allow the Democrats to nominate someone younger who might have a better chance at victory in November. We have to admit, we've never really seen anything like this (but then we are too young to remember Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968). The pressure on Biden seems to only be growing, day by day, as more and more people come to the conclusion that Democrats would be better served with a new nominee.

The reason for all this angst, of course, was Biden's disastrous debate performance last Thursday. He was supposed to use it as a way to shake up the race and remind voters just how dangerous Donald Trump would be as president again. Unfortunately, what happened instead is that Biden shook up the race by proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is old -- too old, perhaps, to do the job effectively for another four years.

Team Biden then tried to do some damage control, but without any noticeable impact. They circled the White House wagons and pressured other elected Democrats to give their full-throated support to Joe. However, what was noticeably missing in all this was Joe himself. Biden has done very little to assuage Democrats' concerns all week long, appearing only briefly at a handful of scripted events (where he took no questions). He did show up for one rally the day after the debate, where he turned in an impressive performance -- full of energy, rallying the troops -- but it was only one event. It's been more than a week, and there aren't a whole lot of weeks left on the campaign calendar.

Today Biden hopes to turn things around, but it's really being seen as his last shot. The president flew to Wisconsin to hold a rally, but the big news will come tonight when ABC will air a sit-down interview with the president that is going to be his make-or-break moment. If the interview with George Stephanopoulos goes well it might allay some of the fears Democrats have been expressing, but if Biden stumbles at all during the interview the calls for him to step aside are going to get a whole lot louder and impossible to ignore.

One key question is how long the interview will be. ABC has scheduled a whole hour for the broadcast, after first indicating that the interview would be chopped up into little bits and meted out over the course of the weekend. Thankfully, they realized this was not the way to go (since naysayers would insist that they had edited out any gaffes or senior moments), and they now are going to air the whole thing in its entirety tonight. But one rumor making the rounds was that the White House was only going to allow Biden to speak for "15 or maybe 20 minutes," which would be a serious mistake. In the first place, that's not enough to put to rest the fears that Biden doesn't have the sharpness or stamina to campaign effectively, and in the second place it would mean ABC would have to fill the rest of the hour with talking heads discussing how old Biden is -- which is not the message Team Biden really wants to highlight.

Tonight's interview will be historic, one way or another. It will either be seen as Biden making a big comeback, or it will be the straw that broke the Democratic donkey's back and lead to plans to replace Biden at the top of the ticket. A lot is riding on it, in other words.

Of course, the question of whether Joe Biden was the best candidate to take on Donald Trump this time around is not a new one. Ever since Biden announced his re-election bid, some people have been wondering at the wisdom of such a course. Joe Biden, should he win a second term in office, will be 86 years old before he leaves the White House. That's old. Way old. Even setting aside the question of the election itself (whether a younger candidate might have a better chance), the real question voters will face is whether Biden can lead the country for four more years. It's not just a question of Biden's mental capacities right now, in other words, it is a question of where he'll be years from now. And aging is a one-way road -- he's not going to suddenly snap out of it and "get better" any time soon.

The political media has been in an absolute feeding frenzy all week long. Tiny details are breathlessly reported, none of them good for Biden. He needs more sleep, and has instructed staff not to schedule events after 8:00 at night, we are told. If this is true now, what is he going to be like four years from now? It is depressing to contemplate, that's for sure.

Joe Biden was always going to have a tough time winning again. His job approval ratings are terrible. No sitting president with ratings this low has ever won re-election -- and that was true even before the debate happened. Since then, his head-to-head polling against Trump has gotten worse. Sticking with Biden seems to be an exercise in futility for the Democrats, absent some game-changing event that shakes up the race in some positive way for Biden.

Of course, the only one who will decide what happens next is Joe Biden. The party can't force him off the ticket, he has already won that honor in the primaries. If he chooses to continue running there is little that anyone else can do to stop him. But the pressure for him to drop out will likely continue to grow no matter what happens at this point. Biden could knock it out of the park tonight and turn in the best interview performance ever seen and people will still be talking about whether sticking with Biden is the right way to go or not.

Major newspaper editorial boards have already called on Biden to get out of the race. A few Democratic congressmen have publicly called on him to step aside. Up until now, the rest of the Democrats in Congress have either stuck by Biden or remained quiet, but it's really impossible to see this movement just somehow going away. If Biden does continue to campaign, his every utterance will be scrutinized for possible mental lapses and any flaws will be widely discussed. His energy levels will also be the subject of much speculation.

To state the painfully obvious, this is not what we would consider a winning strategy. Far from it.

This must be incredibly painful for Joe Biden and for all those close to him. Biden has long seen himself as the man to save America from the nightmare of Trump winning, and he certainly proved last time he was up to that task. But thinking that he's the only one who can beat Trump smacks of narcissism, at this point. "I am the only one who can save the country" is a line Trump uses, after all. For Biden to argue the same thing just makes voters wonder more about the electoral process that left us all with this choice. Is this really the best America can do, when deciding who should lead the country?

Stepping aside is going to be an agonizing thing for Biden to do. Who would walk away from all that power, after all? Biden still nurtures a belief that he can turn it all around and emerge victorious, but as time goes by fewer and fewer other people are buying into that dream.

If Biden doesn't knock it out of the park in tonight's interview, then the discussions Democrats are now having about a possible Plan B are going to get more intense. So far the number of officeholders calling on Joe to step down has been minimal, but at the same time it is rumored that a letter is being circulated among them saying the same thing. If Biden has a weak performance tonight, then the best bet is that next week (when Congress returns to Washington) a lot more Democrats are going to sign that letter.

Joe Biden is not currently seen as leading his party to victory. There is a true crisis of confidence among Democrats, which already could be the death knell for Biden's candidacy. If he can't even get his own party members on board, how is he going to convince enough voters to do the same? The problem for Biden now is that he's essentially got to be perfect. He can hold excellent rally after excellent rally, but the media is always going to be looking for the next thing to pounce on.

To be sure, this isn't really fair. Donald Trump is not subject to the same level of scrutiny, mostly because he has always flubbed his facts, made things up out of thin air, and mangled the English language. So for him, the media shrugs and says: "Eh, that's just Trump being Trump." But fair or not, this is Biden's reality now.

More and more Democrats are becoming more and more open to the idea of a Plan B. It would be an enormous gamble, of course, but then so would sticking with Joe. The conventional wisdom is that an open convention with a big floor fight would somehow be harmful to Democrats, but it sure would generate some real excitement in both the media and the public. It'd be the most significant reality television ever. And with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, it's probably a safe bet that the Democrats will not hold factional grudges after the convention but will instead unite behind their nominee. Amongst all the doom-and-gloom stories last week, we came across one article that highlighted in a very positive way the possibilities naming someone new could bring:

Unscripted TV, on the other hand, is now the closest thing we have to a culturally shared experience, outside of the Super Bowl. What is the genesis of Trump, if not a national thirst for unscripted entertainment? He represents the triumph of personality over party, a creation not of politics, but of everything that is impolitic and impolite.

If Biden were to accept reality and step aside, for once, Democrats would have a genuine opportunity to match Trump's theatrical dominance. What better way to recast yourself with the electorate than through a gripping, episodic fight for leadership? What could draw more people into politics than a must-watch nightly drama, with the fate of the nation at stake? I have to believe that Trump -- a modern-day P.T. Barnum who feeds off the boring artifice of his adversaries -- fears that spectacle more than anything.

And in a political age in which familiarity breeds distrust, what could be more advantageous than choosing a nominee -- preferably one from outside Washington -- with only two months to campaign? Imagine the explosion of interest that would surround some fresh, non-octogenarian -- Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Gina Raimondo, Josh Shapiro -- during a 10-week barnstorming tour. How's Trump going to handle that?

It's a good point. We already live in the age of political spectacle. Entertainment value is a lot more important than it used to be, in politics. Handled right, the Democratic National Convention could do what few people have ever been able to do -- shove Trump out of the headlines. Once the winner emerged, it would be up to them to keep the momentum going and (for once) be seen as forcing Trump to react, rather than the other way around. That could be unbelievably effective.

We have to say that we are warming to the idea of a Kamala Harris campaign. No, she is not our first choice of which Democrat we'd like to see in the Oval Office next, but she's acceptable enough, at this point. Biden anointing her heir apparent would throw his still-considerable political weight behind her, which might be enough to guarantee her the nomination at the convention. Then Democrats could have a big power struggle to see who would be named her vice-presidential candidate instead (which would be just as exciting, but far more manageable).

This all harkens back to the "smoke-filled back rooms" days in American politics, of course. Instead of the voters deciding, a major party's nominee could be chosen by a few thousand delegates at the national convention. It would be the first time in half a century the selection would be made solely by party elites. But the unifying force in all of it is still going to be Donald Trump. Defeating Trump is seen as so critical to the future of American democracy that petty differences between Democrats are going to get smoothed over pretty quickly.

If the convention does pick a new nominee, then he or she will have to hit the ground running in a big way. But all of a sudden the race will have gotten exciting again, instead of being a race between two candidates nobody really wanted to see on a ballot again. And the new candidate would be a major contrast from the lackadaisical style of campaigning that Biden has been doing so far, injecting some youthful vigor into the process and generating some excitement among the voters.

In fact, this is what the convention fight is going to be centered on. Not the ideology of the candidate, not their policy positions, not their own political history -- instead the choice will be made on one criterion alone: Who would have the best chance to beat Trump? Who can go toe to toe with him? Who can counteract his firehose of lies? Who can stand up to the playground bully the best? Who will excite undecided voters more? That is the only thing that really matters, at this point.

Calling for Joe Biden to walk away from his re-election bid is a painful thing to do. It would be incredibly risky, with the stakes enormous. But it would certainly inject some drama into the contest that has been all but absent up to this point.

So we will watch tonight's interview to see what Biden can do, but remain highly skeptical that even a phenomenal interview can truly turn things around for the Biden campaign. The damage seems like it has already been done. Which is why, with a heavy heart, we have to conclude that of the two risky paths in front of the Democratic Party right now, picking a new presidential candidate would be less risky than sticking with the one we've got. Thanks for everything you've done... but it's time to go, Joe.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

24 Comments on “Friday Talking Points -- It's Time To Go, Joe”

  1. [1] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    ranked choice voting at the convention? American idol style voting from dems at home? maybe it's that I've always hated reality tv writ large, but I don't think i'd like to see it happen.

    Marco!

  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    (not Rubio. I just realized it could be interpreted in that way, not the swimming pool game.)

  3. [3] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    American Bidol? ha. I can see it now, the DNC mails a special login number to registered dems nationwide, and every week one of the candidates gets voted off. LOL!

  4. [4] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I think the next unscripted interview with a reputable journalist should not deal with Biden's age or cognitive ability but rather be about why Democrats need to win not only the WH but the House and Senate, too.

    And, Biden needs to figure out how to hit hard in such an interview and not just call out Trump for all the lies the former president tells or how many counts he's been convicted on.

    Hitting hard means talking about the big issues - the Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity and what that means if Trump wins; abortion rights and reproductive freedom and why Dems need to win the WH, the House and the Senate; the economy is rolling along on the right track and that progress could easily be rolled back if Trump and Republicans win - remember the Republican cult of economic failure!

    What shouldn't be said again by Biden is that he "has two wars"! Not a good slogan, anyway you slice it.

    As for the "Israeli" peace plan ... at least Biden said tonight that was his plan and not the Israeli's plan! But, I would steer clear away from that, too.

    Looking forward to the big NATO meetings and Biden presser...

  5. [5] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    after reading commentary about how Kamala should be supported because she's "better on Gaza" it doesn't take much imagination to see the first thing republicans would go after the nanosecond she becomes the nominee.

  6. [6] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    also, congrats Canada on being a semifinalist in the Copa America. great game, end to end, high drama.

    KLOPP TO USMNT PLEASE!

  7. [7] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Thanks, I didn't see the game but may have to watch the semi-final match because, you know, I'm a sucker for punishment. Heh.

    And, this is one time that I'm grateful American voters don't care much about foreign policy. Although, with my luck, this will be the year they do. ;)

  8. [8] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    In a week which BEGS for Talking Points about the contrast between Biden and Trump, Chris hops on the band wagon (or joins the feeding frenzy, if you prefer).
    "We have to admit, we've never really seen anything like this".
    You don't remember the week that the news broke about President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky?
    You don't remember the week that a photo was published of a 'yearbook photo' allegedly of a young Governor Northam in black face? (This latter one I seem to recall resulted in Chris once more editorializing on a Democrat 'needs to go'. Thank goodness the Governor ignored the left-wing media storm).

  9. [9] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    While she is not a politician, the "Disney heiress" definitely deserves at least a nomination for MDDOW. Thank goodness there are Democratic primaries; she seems to think the U.S. is an oligarchy.
    '“I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket,” Abigail Disney said in a statement to CNBC on Thursday'
    https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/abigail-disney-democrats-biden-drops-out-donations-1236060901/

  10. [10] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    italyrusty,

    I think the 'it's time to go, joe' crowd make the dangerous assumption that the Democratic ticket can beat Trump with anyone but Biden. My greatest fear is that the Dems lose big in a real red wave because the party as a whole is in disarray - real disarray - after forcing out their most qualified candidate or leaving him in place, bruised and battered by his own team to the end.

    The time being wasted on this nonsense is ridiculous while the other guy gets a 'welcome back to the WH free card'.

    Biden has one play left to leave the naysayers behind. Ignore the ridiculousness and start campaigning hard against Trump by using incumbency for all its worth! I still think that is possible but time is running out.

  11. [11] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Chris,

    The entire political media universe has been completely consumed with the question of whether President Joe Biden is the best candidate to take on Donald Trump, or whether he should instead gracefully step aside and allow the Democrats to nominate someone younger who might have a better chance at victory in November.

    Well, if the political media universe keeps this nonsense up for much longer, it'll be hard to imagine Trump not winning.

    I mean, Biden says he's not going anywhere. So, take him at his word and starting fighting against the second coming of Trump!

  12. [12] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    If need be, take a page out of the Lincoln Project playbook - they know what's up ... and what's not.

  13. [13] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    if the president isn't willing to get creative, the election is lost anyway. in my opinion a new nominee would lose more by being new than they'd gain by not being joe biden.

  14. [14] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I think I agree with that ... all of it.

  15. [15] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    Elizabeth,

    What is stunning to me is the contrast between Republicans and Democrats in this moment. The former are going "full steam ahead" with a twice-impeached, convicted electoral loser. The latter are screaming "abandon ship" because of a single television performance.

  16. [16] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    I fear that, once again, the right-wing message of "Biden is incapacitated" has been embraced by too many Democrats. This proves once more that if you repeat a lie enough times, people will believe it.

    I have never been near President Biden and have no idea of his mental state. I trust his wife and family, his circle of trusted friends, and those on his campaign team to fully assess his ability to run. I wonder if Chris and the "political media universe" believe this a wide-ranging pro-Biden conspiracy to dupe the American voters.

  17. [17] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    Even during his campaign in 2020, I read several articles about Biden's propensity to misspeak. But suddenly the chattering class is astounded!
    'the truth is, mistakes like these are nothing new for Biden, who has been mixing up names and places for his entire political career. Back in 2008, he infamously introduced his running mate as “the next president of the United States, Barack America.” At the time, Biden’s well-known propensity for bizarre tangents, ahistorical riffs, and malapropisms compelled Slate to publish an entire column explaining “why Joe Biden’s gaffes don’t hurt him much".
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/biden-mexico-gaffe-real-lesson/677402/

  18. [18] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Italyarusty,

    Even during his campaign in 2020, I read several articles about Biden's propensity to misspeak. But suddenly the chattering class is astounded!

    You have hit on something, there!

    The chattering class and "political media universe" and our Chris - not to mention Democrats like president Obama who openly ridiculed Biden before coming to his senses and tapping him for his running mate - have never been all in with Biden, quite the contrary, in fact. None of them, in their wildest dreams ever, ever imagined "Uncle Joe" would ever rise to the highest office in the land, not even by a long shot.

    In fact, the asinine media storyline on Biden has endured for a half century. That is why it has been so easy for many of them to call for his resignation now, despite the high risks involved with such a course of action and the threat personified by Donald Trump.

    As long as I've been following Biden's career, since 1987 when I became fixated on US politics, particularly US foreign policy during the Iran-Contra hearings, Biden has had a propensity to misspeak. This is nothing new, at all. It's why he was ousted from the 1988 presidential campaign during an episode of what the "political media universe" called plagiarism - he misspoke once about something without proper attribution after having spoke about it many times before on the stump WITH attribution. Once he ended that campaign, the brain aneurysm that was causing him severe headaches burst and he almost died and probably would have if he had remained in campaign mode. Anyway.

    Since being elected president, I have noticed much change in Biden which can obviously be chalked up to his advancing age - mostly in the Biden I like to remember who was a strong proponent of muscular diplomacy over the war machine, notwithstanding his firm and sound decision to make a clean break with the war in Afghanistan albeit in a seemingly very haphazard way.

    Partly due to there not being a clearly qualified Democrat who could step in at this very late stage, and considering that Biden still provides the starkest contrast with Trump from a character and (domestic) policy perspective, I still believe that Biden as he is today is the best option for Democrats in November. I hasten to add that all of the talk recently about the worry over Biden not being able to withstand another four years is quite disingenuous in that everyone must know that Biden need not complete an entire second term. And, a truncated second term would seem to provide the best way out of this Democratic predicament. All in all, I still believe Biden provides the best chance of preventing a second Trump term in the WH - IF Dems in all walks of life wake up and smell the coffee and get on track in a united effort to persuade voters to choose Biden - and their own futures - over another four years of Trump.

  19. [19] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @italy,

    sometimes appearance becomes reality, which i think is what dan was getting at. in the public consciousness it doesn't matter how things actually are, so much as how they seem.

    "I've always been myself, even when I was ill. Only now I seem myself. And that's the important thing. I have remembered how to seem. What, what."
    ~the madness of king George III

  20. [20] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I guess that explains why a majority of American voters trust Trump and the Republicans over Biden and the Democrats when it comes to the economy - their own personal economy as well as that of the nation.

    But, it doesn't explain why Democrats have such a bloody hard time changing that narrative and why they can't call out the Republican cult of economic failure.

  21. [21] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Chris,

    How long do you think Trump will be getting a free pass in this presidential election campaign or will Dems be fretting over Biden's mental acuity until election day? ;)

  22. [22] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    italyrusty,

    First off, please accept my apologies for mangling your name up there.

    And, forgive me if you've already told us but do we know your first name? Or, is italy alright with you.

  23. [23] 
    italyrusty wrote:

    Elizabeth,

    No need to apologize. I'm an italophile,so 'italy' is fine. I'll answer to most anything - except pettiness. :)

  24. [24] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    It’s time to stop with the wailing and gnashing of teeth and the rending of one’s garments, for all is not remotely lost!

    Sure, it was tough watching Joe but how did this debate change the dynamics of November? Everybody already knows that Joe is 81 (and thanks to bombing the debate the bar for Joe has been significantly lowered.) Every non-Trumpanzie knows that Trump lies constantly and TFG did not disappoint.

    So the question is do you believe that true “undecided” voters (1)even watched the debate, and (2) thought “Biden looks terrible so I’m going to vote for Putin’s bitch Trump?
    This debate will barely be remembered come November. Democrats should not dump Joe because of one bad night.

Comments for this article are closed.