After a two-week detour through the landscape of Democratic angst, Donald Trump has once again reclaimed the center stage of the political world. President Joe Biden will be interviewed on NBC tonight, but this will likely become no more than a footnote in a dramatic week for Trump and the Republican Party.

Part of this shift in focus was planned, as the Republican National Convention gets underway in Milwaukee today, but the most dramatic event was not. Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt in a small town in Pennsylvania over the weekend, as his ear was apparently grazed by a bullet fired at him from a roof overlooking his rally. One spectator was killed and two seriously injured in the attack. This is likely to generate some sympathy for Trump, although assassination attempts are rare enough that it's impossible to say what the political effect will be. One thing that's certain is that it will become a central focus at the convention.

The biggest news out of Milwaukee so far has been the announcement that Trump has selected Senator J.D. Vance for his running mate. Vance, like many in the Republican Party, has morphed from a self-described "Never Trump guy" to being one of Trump's loudest and strongest supporters. His past condemnations of Trump are pretty scathing to read (calling him "America's Hitler," for instance), but these days Vance does nothing but sing Trump's praises. He beat out another former-Trump-critic-turned-sycophant, Marco Rubio, apparently on the strength of Vance's personal relationship with Trump (which Trump highly values).

But while Vance will generate news for a day or two, all eyes are going to be on Trump for the finale. So far, Trump has been uncharacteristically subdued since the shooting. He even hinted that his convention speech would be rewritten to call for unity in the country. This is rather odd, since this is precisely what Joe Biden has been saying since the shooting as well. For Biden, this is a return to a central campaign theme from 2020, calling for the country to come together and dial down the extremism and vicious rhetoric that Trump celebrated. If Trump truly does have a change of heart here will it mean both major parties' presidential candidates will be running on the same issue? Personally, I find this highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened in politics.

Trump has already defied expectations once in this campaign, and he did so by acting surprisingly normal. What would be considered normal and expected behavior from any American politician (using "pre-Trump" norms) was indeed rather surprising to see from Trump, but in the first debate that's precisely what happened. Trump didn't try to shout down the moderators or his debate opponent, instead he kept to his time segments and obeyed the rules. Oh, sure, he lied his face off... but he did so rather politely (for him), which was totally unexpected. This aspect of the debate was mostly ignored (since Biden's terrible performance was a lot more interesting to comment on), but it was rather shocking to see Trump essentially behaving himself. So maybe he will shock me once again by giving a convention speech calling for unity and denouncing the use of violence in politics. Again -- this would be pretty standard fare for any normal pre-Trump politician, but from Trump himself it would be beyond notable.

Even if this does come to pass, it's hard to imagine everyone speaking at the convention is going to follow Trump's example, though. Hotheadedness is a key virtue for Republican politicians these days, and national party conventions (of both parties) are traditionally filled with lots of red meat for the true believers. So even if Trump's speech centers on unity, there will be plenty of divisiveness on display.

Trump, of course, will be portrayed as the biggest victim ever. Following Trump's lead, Republicans have newly embraced a feeling of victimhood -- after decades of belittling Democrats for doing the same thing. Now that Trump has survived an assassination attempt, the rhetoric is likely to be off the charts. Trump was also handed an "icing on the cake" present today, as the judge in his national security documents case dismissed all charges on the rather dubious legal theory that the special counsel's appointment was somehow unconstitutional. She is expected to be overturned on appeal, but these days who knows what the Supreme Court will rule? This is notable because out of all the cases against Trump, this one was considered the slam-dunk. Even if the special counsel wins on appeal and even if he gets the judge tossed off the case (for legal malpractice or for being so obviously biased towards Trump), there is no way the case will be heard in a courtroom before the election. And if Trump wins, it will all disappear when he takes office.

I also expect Republicans to perform some political jiu-jitsu in their convention speeches, as they try to turn the tables on Democrats on the subject of encouraging political violence. Joe Biden (and many other Democrats) have been warning that a Trump victory would be an existential threat to American democracy and the Constitution, and Republicans will be pointing out that this sort of language can lead to a "by all means necessary" frame of mind. Of course, Donald Trump has long celebrated violence in politics -- as long as it is directed towards his enemies, but this disconnect won't matter to Republicans now making the case that it is the Democrats who are encouraging violence.

All week long, the Republican Party will dominate the airwaves and the political discussion. The primetime segment of the convention will be their chance to make their case to as many Americans as possible. Before the shooting happened, I was expecting the entire event to be very dark and very angry (as indeed Trump's last convention was). Even if Donald Trump surprises everyone by calling for some sort of unity during his speech, I still fully expect some awfully dark and awfully angry moments in the build-up to his speech. But Republicans will now be accusing Democrats of being the dark and angry ones who represent a threat to American democracy. It's almost traditional in American politics for both sides to make the argument: "This is the most important election of your lifetime!" and it seems a pretty safe bet that this will be one of the major themes once again.

For two solid weeks, Joe Biden dominated the political discussion while Donald Trump was mostly ignored. This week, Trump will get his innings. It is doubtful many voters' minds will be changed by the spectacle of the Republican convention, but at the very least they will move directly onto center stage for the duration. So buckle up, everyone... here we go....

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant