Abortion Rights Will Be On More Ballots This November
Two more states -- Missouri and Arizona -- have now certified the signatures required to place abortion rights on their ballots in November. This brings the total for this election cycle up to eight states, although the possibility of the ballot measures having a meaningful impact on the other races on the ballot realistically only exists in three of them. So far, abortion rights have an unbroken 7-0 record of winning, even in some very red states, so it will be interesting to see if that continues or not. But beyond electoral geekiness, if any of them win it will be a victory for women's rights and freedom over government interference in the most personal of medical decisions.
Democrats, of course, are optimistic. Up until Roe was tossed out by the Supreme Court, abortion ballot measures were exclusively put on ballots by the forced-birth side of the issue. More and more onerous (and medically-unnecessary) hurdles were enacted to discourage women from exercising their rights, and "trigger bans" were voted on even with Roe in place, just to be ready for the moment it was overturned. That was then... but this is now. Now, abortion rights are being placed on the ballot mostly by groups who want to either enshrine the right into the state's constitution or overturn Draconian state laws that are now in place. And in the few cases where the forced-birth side has placed ballot measures before the voters that would remove abortion rights, they have lost (Kansas and Kentucky, most notably). The tide has turned, obviously.
What has yet to be fully proven is that placing an abortion rights measure on the ballot will help Democratic politicians (and to what degree). But it's a fair assumption, seeing how potent an issue it is among all kinds of voter demographics. If you're voting to enshrine abortion rights in your state's constitution, then you might also decide to vote for the Democrats who are fighting back against Republican attempts to strip those rights away, right?
As mentioned, though, this won't be true everywhere. Out of the eight states where abortion rights will be on the ballot, two are so red they are beyond hope of Democrats flipping them (Missouri and South Dakota), even if the abortion rights measure passes. Three more are so blue that they're already solidly in the Democratic column (Colorado, New York, and Maryland). But the remaining three will be very interesting to watch. Abortion will be on the ballot in two presidential battleground states (Arizona and Nevada), as well as one that would be an enormous upset if Democrats actually prevail there (Florida).
Florida will be challenging. Unlike in most of the states that have voted on abortion referenda so far, Florida has a higher bar to pass constitutional amendments to their state constitution: a supermajority of 60 percent is needed. That may be too high a bar to reach, to be blunt. In a lot of the states where abortion rights have passed, the percent voting for them has only reached the high 50s. It would be extremely disappointing if Florida votes 59-41 in favor of the issue only to have it fail, to put this another way.
No matter what the actual vote on abortion rights in Florida turns out to be, it's a stretch to even imagine it'll be some sort of wave that Democrats could ride to winning the state. The state used to be a battleground, but has shifted more solidly red of late, to the point where it is now no more than an impossible dream for Democrats -- probably for either the presidential race or the Senate race (Marco Rubio is up for re-election this year). At best, Democrats might be able to manage losing by a slimmer margin than might have been true without abortion on the ballot, but that's about all they can realistically hope for.
But this isn't true in Arizona or Nevada. Both states have been trending bluer and bluer anyway, and abortion rights are as popular in both of these states as they are pretty much everywhere else. Nevada is such a small (and usually low-turnout) state that any edge could be crucial, so turning out people that don't normally vote to protect abortion rights could indeed guarantee victory for Kamala Harris. There's also a Senate race in Nevada, but the Democratic candidate is already solidly up in the polls, so again it might help with the margin of victory but probably won't be decisive (unless, of course, the polls shift -- Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll).
Arizona is the real prize, of course. Arizona only went for Joe Biden by a razor-thin margin (of 11,000 votes) in 2020. It's going to be close this time around too, most likely. The polls there between Harris and Donald Trump are now essentially tied. Any edge could be critical, obviously. And Arizona already lived through a rather frightening episode earlier, when their state's supreme court ruled that a Draconian anti-abortion law from the 1860s was still on the books and valid. Even Republicans in the state's legislature realized that this went too far, and they hastily passed a measure invalidating the 19th-century law, which the Democratic governor immediately signed. But Arizonans have already seen how things can change due to the whims of a conservative court, and they currently have an abortion law that is much more restrictive than the protections of Roe (abortions are outlawed after the 15th week). So there is an excellent chance that they'll pass the ballot measure that just qualified -- with more valid signatures than any Arizona referendum, ever.
Arizona and Nevada could be decisive in the presidential election. Kamala Harris is going to try to win the three "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but if she falls short in any one of them, Arizona and Nevada could still put her over the top. So while we will indeed be watching how all of the 2024 abortion ballot measures do in November, we'll be concentrating on the Western states most of all.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I heart abortion.
The 78 year old orange weirdo says that interest in abortion is way down. He's lost in the dementia fog. He sounded like Daffy Duck impersonating Ozzy Osbourne last night on failing TwitterX. Sad.
Women will get their retribution for the Trump Abortion Bans and the 34 time convicted loser will add to his felony collection.
The state used to be a battleground, but has shifted more solidly red of late, to the point where it is now no more than an impossible dream for Democrats -- probably for either the presidential race or the Senate race (Marco Rubio is up for re-election this year).
Marco Rubio was reelected in 2022. Rick Scott is up for reelection this year in Florida and running against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
At best, Democrats might be able to manage losing by a slimmer margin than might have been true without abortion on the ballot, but that's about all they can realistically hope for.
Rick Scott defeated Bill Nelson 50.05% to 49.93% in 2018. Don't expect it'll be that much of a squeaker this time around, though.
Arizona and Nevada could still put her over the top.
Maybe Fox News will call Arizona early and send the Trumpanzees over the edge... again.
This SHOULD be a winning issue.
But, given how Democrats have essentially ceded the economic file to Republicans and how voters feel that Republicans have the best economic policy, I doubt that Democrats really know how to capitalize on either issue.
What a "wacko" country!
Elizabeth, just because the Dems aren’t using your decidedly unwieldy and not catchy cult of economic failure doesn’t mean they’ve ceded the economy to the Repugs.
I trust that you missed a recent poll that measured who voters trust more on the economy:
42% Harris
41% Trump
Regardless of what all the bedwetters have been saying most voters don’t pay much attention until after Labor Day. That’s why I scoffed at “the Dems aren’t doing or saying enough” all year. One shouldn’t shoot until the shot counts.
I suppose you’re still mad at Joe over Ukraine and Gaza…
Elizabeth Miller
5
This SHOULD be a winning issue.
Abortion is a winning issue as long as you're a pro-choice and "Mind Your Own Damn Business" candidate.
But, given how Democrats have essentially ceded the economic file to Republicans and how voters feel that Republicans have the best economic policy, I doubt that Democrats really know how to capitalize on either issue.
While you might not like it or understand it, the reason the Democrats have "switched horses" was to get a person who could actually deliver a message, and she chose her running mate accordingly.
Don't believe me... check the polls.
What a "wacko" country!
I suspect the polls are moving in the direction they are is because people more increasingly do not trust the pathologically lying Trump on any issue... ample proof we're not all "wacko." :)
Be sure to watch Biden's speech at the Democratic National Convention... night 1.
MtnCaddy
6
Elizabeth, just because the Dems aren’t using your decidedly unwieldy and not catchy cult of economic failure doesn’t mean they’ve ceded the economy to the Repugs.
Never heard that one. ;)
Actually, it's Republican cult of economic failure. Big difference.
What should Democratic candidates and office-holders, as well as common taters like us, do or say to get voters to stop viewing Republican failure-cultists positively on the economy? Having better policies and better records hasn't helped. Saying that they will "fight for the middle class" (and implicitly, that they'll presumably fight against the poor) hasn't helped. And I'm sorry, but I'm not optimistic that the slogan "Republican cult of economic failure" would get through either.
@kick,
i remember rick scott when he first ran for governor. if there's one guy who's even more trumpy than trump, Rick Scott might be that guy. I mean, how many senators can you name who as CEO's lost a health care fraud case to the tune of 1.7 billion dollars, then beat his opponent by falsely accusing him of the exact crime for which he and his company were convicted? Rick Scott is special.
JL
nypoet22
11
I know, right!? They're like two peas in the same pathetic pod.
I cannot think about Rick Scott without remembering his awful 11-Point Plan to Rescue America
https://rescueamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/RickScott-11-Point-Policy-Book.pdf
policy proposals released before the 2022 elections a.k.a. the NOT Red Wave or Red Tsunami midterms. The GOP collectively shrugged their shoulders and claimed it wasn't their policy.
Fast forward to 2024 and we have literally the same situation with Project 2025, and Trump and the GOP (again) claim total ignorance because they obviously think we're all stupid.
It's like déjà vu all over again wherein these clowns seem to never not be in the process of a plan to screw America.