ChrisWeigant.com

House Republicans' Kabuki Show

[ Posted Monday, September 16th, 2024 – 15:33 UTC ]

I should begin by saying I thought about writing about the politically-violent era we now live in, but it was just too depressing a subject for a Monday. So instead, let's take a look at what is going on in Congress.

Congress is back in town, after their obscenely-long summer break, and (as usual) they are facing a big deadline. This is exacerbated by the fact that it is an election year, so all the congresscritters really want to be back in their home states and districts campaigning full-time. So they really want to just pass something and get out of town (again).

However, to achieve this goal would mean reasonable politicians on both sides of the aisle sitting down and hammering out a bill, and then both houses passing it with little or no drama. Since the House of Representatives is run by Republicans, this is currently impossible. It may yet happen, but only after the House GOP puts on yet another Kabuki production of: "Here Is Precisely How Incapable We Are Of Governing." And as we've already seen, this sort of thing can end the political careers of anyone currently in the speaker's chair.

Speaker Mike Johnson, the hapless current occupant of the seat of power in the House, is in the same old bind that every Republican speaker back to John Boehner has faced. He has to appease the craziest members of his caucus, while at the same time not agreeing to anything that is so crazy that the moderate swing-district Republicans can't accept it. This time around, both factions are not happy with what Johnson is proposing, for different reasons. And either faction could have enough votes to prevent a bill from passing the House with only Republican votes.

The big issue is (as usual) the budget. The federal fiscal year starts October 1st. So a federal budget for the upcoming year is supposed to be in place. This means the House and Senate have to have passed the same budget, and the president has to have signed it. This almost never happens (which is a subject for another day). Instead, before the deadline arrives, Congress passes a "continuing resolution" (C.R.) that just kicks the can down the road a bit. Traditionally, this usually winds up being "at some point before the Christmas break." Congress can wait until the election is over and then pass an actual budget in the lame-duck Congress before going home.

That is all what usually happens. If it doesn't happen by October 1st, then the government shuts down. Paychecks stop for federal employees. National Parks close their gates. Et cetera.

This year, however, Johnson has teed up two "poison pill" ideas, in an effort to assuage his members. The first is that the C.R. would last not just until the end of the calendar year, but months into next year. This is being billed as a sign of confidence for Republicans -- once Donald Trump wins and we retake the Senate, we'll be able to pass a full-on Republican budget!

The other poison pill (for Democrats) is a measure that would make something that is already illegal illegal again. It would make it a crime for anyone who is not a citizen to vote or attempt to vote. Which, as mentioned, is already illegal. But that doesn't faze the House Republicans, because this is all a "messaging" bill in the first place -- it is meant to force Democrats to either vote for a truly stupid idea (since, again, it is already illegal) or be hammered on the campaign trail for "voting to allow non-citizen immigrants to vote." It's pure politics, in other word.

It's also never going to make it through the Senate. It's all posturing for their base, plain and simple.

Johnson's problem is that both of his unruly factions hate the bill and will not vote for it as it stands. He tried to pass it last week, and had to pull it at the last minute when he realized it was going to fail. He's been lobbying his own members ever since, and says he's going to try a vote again this week too. His members really do want to get back out on the campaign trail, and the first of October is really just around the corner (in terms of the usual pace of Congress, at least).

But the bill's got problems within the GOP caucus. There are some members who refuse to vote for any C.R., just on principle. There are Republicans who don't think having a big budget battle next spring would be the best idea, even with Trump in the White House (they'd much prefer to do it before the year-end break, like always). And there are Republicans who know that this is all meaningless Kabuki, which wastes a lot of time -- they'd much prefer to just cut to the chase, the part where Republicans are done with all their political posturing and have to sit down with the Senate Democrats and agree to some "clean" C.R. with all the poison pills stripped out. And Johnson can currently only lose four votes from his own caucus to pass any bill on strictly party lines.

At least Johnson probably won't have to worry about the hotheads in his caucus getting so irate that they chuck him out of the speaker's chair (which already happened this congressional session, to Kevin McCarthy). A new Congress will be seated in January (after the election), so a new speaker will be chosen. Johnson's tenure, at this point, depends a lot more on how Republicans do in November than what is going on now. If they retain control of the chamber, then Johnson will likely (but not definitely) have enough support to be elected speaker again in January. If the GOP loses control, then they won't even get to elect their own speaker, and Johnson will likely be out of any Republican leadership position.

So the real question is: "How much Kabuki will there be, this time around?" How long will things drag out before Johnson does what he has to and passes a C.R. that the Senate can also accept? Because there are only two possible outcomes -- that, or a government shutdown until things do get resolved. Johnson is not a big fan of government shutdowns, and he is smart enough to know what damage that would do to Republicans' efforts to maintain control of the House (since it would happen one month before the election).

We may find out the answer to that this week, and then again we may not. If Johnson can't successfully herd the Republican cats in his caucus, then things could drag on for another week or so (Oct. 1st is indeed coming up fast...). Sooner or later the dam will break, and Johnson will negotiate with Senate Republicans and then pass a C.R. in the House with both Democratic and Republican votes.

Until then, enjoy the Kabuki.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

7 Comments on “House Republicans' Kabuki Show”

  1. [1] 
    Michale wrote:

    I should begin by saying I thought about writing about the politically-violent era we now live in, but it was just too depressing a subject for a Monday. So instead, let's take a look at what is going on in Congress.

    That's rich...

    Political violence against President Trump is "too depressing a subject" to address..

    But if it was political violence against Token DEI-Hire Headboard Harris??

    That would be **ALL** that Demon'rats could talk about.. :epic eyeroll:

    Which simply proves the old adage is dead on ballz accurate..

    Hypocrisy. It's not a bug in Demon'rat programming. It's a feature.

    Even Demon'rats themselves concede that Demon'rats support political violence against President Trump by the millions...

    "I am so saddened and disturbed by the fact that political violence is so normalized in this country. There is more support for violence today against Trump and others, against Trump, 10% of American adults think it’s OK. That's despicable"
    -Demon'rat Sunny Hostin, The View Host

    TWENTY SIX MILLION Demon'rats say that political violence is acceptable to stop President Trump..

    Remind me again how it's Republicans are the Party of political violence??

    I seem to have forgotten what with all the FACTS that PROVE it's Demon'rats who are the Political Violence Party.

    Maybe Demon'rats should stop all the heated political rhetoric that PROMPTS such acts of political violence, eh??

    But of course that won't happen..

    Doing THAT would force Demon'rats to actually concede that THEY are the problem..

    And everyone knows that Demon'rats simply can't accept that reality...

    And *THAT* is the topic that is "too depressing" to discuss.. :eyeroll:

    'Tis sad, 'tis true. 'Tis true, 'tis sad."

    However, to achieve this goal would mean reasonable politicians on both sides of the aisle sitting down and hammering out a bill, and then both houses passing it with little or no drama. Since the House of Representatives is run by Republicans, this is currently impossible.

    Yea... It's the REPUBLICANS who are the unreasonable ones?? :eyeroll:

    Does anyone remember when Weigantia actually had "reality based political commentary"???

    As opposed to all the heated Trump/GOP hate based political commentary that prompts, advocates and condones political violence???

    I long for those days again..

    The other poison pill (for Democrats) is a measure that would make something that is already illegal illegal again.

    You mean like Demon'rats wanting to make "assault rifles" {sic} illegal to stop school/mass shootings which is ALREADY illegal??

    You mean, like that??? :eyeroll:

    Once again... You are accusing the GOP of doing something that Demon'rats do constantly...

    It's pure politics, in other words

    Just like Demon'rats actions against "assault rifles" {sic} is "pure politics"...

    Thank you for that concession. Although there was never any doubt of that..

    Let me close with another {paraphrased} age old adage.

    First they tried to sue President Trump out of the election.

    Then they tried to legislate President Trump out of the election.

    Then they tried to prosecute President Trump out of the election.

    Now Demon'rats are trying to assassinate President Trump out of the election.

    One really has to wonder what Demon'rats and Trump/America haters will do when President Trump WINS the election....

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    What do Basement Biden, Token DEI-Hire Headboard Harris, Tampon Tim NO-BALLZ Walz, Would-Be Trump Assassin Ryan Routh and the vast majority of Weigantians all have in common..

    They all have the exact SAME heated and violence-producing rhetoric against President Trump..

    This is an undeniable FACT..

  3. [3] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale-

    Uh..what? That was pretty deranged even for you...

    Reminder: both of Trump's would be assassins were nutters first and republicans second. Maybe Trump repealing the Obama era gun regulation that made it harder for people with mental illness to purchase guns was not such a good idea?

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    What's REALLY hilarious about all this is the Demon'rats actually BELIEVE that Token DEI-Hire Headboard Harris and Tampon Tim NO-BALLZ Walz actually have a chance to win the election..

    That just cracks me up..

    What kind of COMPLETE AND UTTER MORON is going to vote for 4 more years and Demon'rat policies that has produced so much death and grief for the American people??

    Mortgage Rates... Up 156%
    Rent... Up 22%
    Gas... Up 35%
    Energy... Up 33%
    Transportation... Up 28%
    Eggs... Up 53%
    Baby Food... Up 30%
    Frozen Vegetables... Up 28%
    Bread.... Up 24%
    Milk... Up 17%

    What kind of UN AMERICAN MORON is going to vote for 4 more years of that^^^^

    :eyeroll:

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    Top Democrat 'angry' over Biden-Harris admin 'stonewalling' after 2nd attempt on Trump's life

    A top Senate Democrat blasted the Biden-Harris administration for "stonewalling" in response to requests for information on the assassination attempts on former President Trump and the potential failures of the U.S. Secret Service.

    Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI) within the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), said the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was "almost derelict in its duty by resisting our requests for documents, evidence and information that are necessary to investigate."

    The Democrat reiterated his disappointment in the department, and added that he has become "angry" that DHS has not been more "forthcoming."

    Why are Basement Biden and Token DEI-Hire Headboard Harris stone-walling on the President Trump assassinations investigations??

    What are they hiding??

  6. [6] 
    Kick wrote:

    So the real question is: "How much Kabuki will there be, this time around?"

    However much Donald Trump demands because Republicans aren't leaders, they're demonstrable cult followers, pathetic cowards, gullible rubes who mainlined the Kool-Aid, and are not serious people.

    Because there are only two possible outcomes -- that, or a government shutdown until things do get resolved.

    Trump demands a government shutdown, 2024 edition. Same shit, different year. Yawn.

    Dow Jones hits another all-time high while Trumpty Dumpty pump-and-dump meme stock continues its post-debate great fall from the Wall. All the thing's horseshit and all the thing's spin couldn't put Trumpty Dumpty back together again. There's no putting lipstick on that pig.

    Donald announces the Trump family's latest con for gullible rubes wherein he flips and flops from it's "highly volatile and based on thin air" and "not money" to "whether we like it or not, I have to do it" cryptocurrency... bouncing from one money-making con to another, and the MAGA morons are the gullible marks.

  7. [7] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    3

    Uh..what? That was pretty deranged even for you...

    LOL. Dipshit MAGA troll. Not reading that so let me guess: Troll regurgitates spew claiming Trump is a victim. Poor Donald.

    Reminder: both of Trump's would be assassins were nutters first and republicans second. Maybe Trump repealing the Obama era gun regulation that made it harder for people with mental illness to purchase guns was not such a good idea?

    And could somebody please remind the low-info MAGA cult minions that it was JD Vance his very self that referred to Donald Trump in the following terms:

    JD Vance's Quotes Regarding Trump

    * "unfit for our nation’s highest office"

    * "Opioid of the Masses"

    * "He never offers details for how these plans will work, because he can’t. Trump’s promises are the needle in America’s collective vein."

    * "Trump is cultural heroin. He makes some feel better for a bit. But he cannot fix what ails them, and one day they’ll realize it."

    * "I'm a Never Trump guy."

    * "I never liked him."

    * "leading the white working class to a very dark place"

    * "reprehensible"

    * "My god what an idiot."

    * "America's Hitler"

    As even the "hang Mike Pence" low-info right-wingnut prisoner dwellers and Q-Anon nuts with a single brain cell can easily see, Democrats got nothing on the rhetoric of Trump's newest VP running mate.

    Perhaps they could be reasoned with?

    Dearest Deranged Republicans:

    Please stop trying to kill Trump because Democrats definitely want to run against him because of the fact he has a not-so-secret verifiable ceiling of around 46%.

    If you're as upset with the foul-mouthed rhetoric of Vance as you admittedly still are with Mike Pence, kindly redirect your blame, hatred, and anger away from Democrats and toward the moron who keeps choosing these assholes.

    Sincerely,

    Democrats

    If that doesn't work, these Republicans are very fond of "thoughts and prayers" in such circumstances.

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