As we near the finish line of the 2024 presidential race, we're going to start doing these columns more frequently. Sooner or later I will have to write one each week for the final sprint, but I'm not committing to that quite yet. In any case, it has been two weeks since our last look the state of the Electoral Math, so let's take a look at what has changed since the big debate.

Since the debate, Kamala Harris has improved her standing in the national polls, to the point where all the aggregators of such polls have her up in the range of two to three points. That's a lead, but not big enough of one for any Democrats to relax. And although Harris did get a very slight bump from the debate, it hasn't really shown up in a big way in the state-level polling -- which is, of course, what really matters.

So without further ado, let's get right to taking an overview of the state-level polling. As always, we use the fantastic Electoral-Vote.com site for all our data. We urge you to check it out to see individual graphs of every state's polling over time, to get a clearer picture of how tight this race truly is.

We begin with our breakdown of Electoral Votes (EV). Red represents Trump's share (measured from the top), Blue represents Harris's share (measured from the bottom), and whichever crosses the midpoint has the advantage. To put it another way, if all the polls are correct and blue is above the green line, Harris will win. If red is below the green line, then Trump will win.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

As you can see, Harris has maintained a winning edge since our last look (which was just after she had dipped for one day below the magic number to win). Since then she has stayed above it -- but just barely, by an incredibly thin margin.

Harris started the period off with 292 Electoral Votes (EV). She slipped back down to 277 EV as Michigan flipped, but then it flopped back and Harris went back to 292 EV for a day. She then dropped down to 276 EV, which is where she finished the period. Obviously, this is too close for comfort, since she's only 6 EV over the 270 needed to win the Electoral College.

Trump started off the period with 246 EV, jumped up to 261 EV before falling all the way back to 235 EV. But today both Arizona and North Carolina moved to his column from being tied, so he is now back up to 262 EV.

The movement of Arizona and North Carolina into (and then out of) being perfectly tied shows up in the white area of the graph, which moved from zero to 27 EV, and then right back to zero again today.

This all reflects how close this race truly is. The only movement at all happened because the razor-thin margins in three states (Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina) moved around a bit. Everything else stayed fairly stable.

In terms of percentages, Harris fell back while Trump improved. Harris now has a little over 51 percent of the EV in her column while Trump has a little less than 49 percent -- which is about as close as things can get.

There was a little bit of movement in the relative strength of each candidate's position, so let's take a look at the individual charts for both of them. As always, polls which show a 10 point lead or better are considered "Strong," while a gap of between 5 and 10 points is "Weak," and a lead of under 5 points is only "Barely" in their column.

Let's start with Donald Trump's chart:

Trump's numbers showed some movement between the categories, but he wound up in a very similar place to where he began for both his Strong and Weak categories. He did improve in the Barely category, which lifted his overall numbers for the period.

Three states which hadn't yet polled with Harris on the ticket released polls this week that affected Trump. Indiana moved from Barely all the way up to Strong for Trump, which was entirely expected (the poll with Trump at Barely was taken back in the spring, and must have been some sort of outlier, since it's hard to believe Biden really had that much support in this very red state). Arkansas also moved up, from Weak Trump to Strong Trump, as they released a new poll.

The surprise in the other direction was Iowa, which went all the way down from Strong to Barely for Trump. Perhaps this is another outlier, but then again it could be the result of Harris naming Tim Walz as her running mate (since Minnesota neighbors Iowa)? We'll have to see (if we ever see any other polls out of the state), but I personally would be shocked if Iowa actually did become competitive for Harris.

There was one other bit of shocking polling this period for Trump, as Texas sank from Weak to just Barely for him. That's the huge dip in the middle line in this chart, since Texas has a whopping 40 EV. Today, a new Texas poll came out with Trump up by more than five points, so it has now returned to being a Weak state for him. Again, I would be shocked if Texas became competitive, so for now I'm going to consider that poll an outlier.

There were three states that actually changed the overall picture for Trump. Michigan briefly went from Barely Harris to Barely Trump, but then it went right back to Barely Harris, so while it provided a bump it didn't last. Arizona went from Barely Trump to Tied before returning to Barely Trump, which provided some movement but is now back in Trump's column.

Trump's big pickup this time around was North Carolina, which first moved from Barely Harris to Tied, and then today wound up as Barely Trump.

For the whole period, Trump's overall numbers moved within the range of 235 EV up to 262 EV, which is where he winds up today (after two good polls for him in Arizona and North Carolina). This is eight short of the goal, however.

Breaking things down by category, Trump's Strong numbers improved a bit during the period. They started at 100 EV, rose slightly to 106 EV when Arkansas released a new poll, but then fell back to 100 EV when Iowa moved all the way from Strong to Barely for Trump (both states have 6 EV each). Trump's Strong number then improved to 111 EV with that new poll from Indiana, which is where he finished the period -- with a gain of 11 EV in the Strong category

Trump's Weak numbers had a dramatic swing this period, although today they have just as dramatically recovered. Trump started with 78 EV in the Weak category, then dropped down to 72 EV as Arkansas moved up to Strong. But then the shift in Texas sank his Weak number all the way down to 32 EV (the big dip in the graph) before recovering again today. Trump ends up the period with 72 EV here, which is a loss of 6 EV for him.

Trump's Barely numbers also fluctuated quite a bit, starting at 68 EV, rising to 83 EV with the addition of Michigan, and then adding in the 6 EV from Iowa moving down to reach 89 EV. When Indiana moved all the way up to Strong, this fell back to 78 EV and then down to 63 EV as Michigan flipped back to Harris. Trump's Barely numbers surged up to 92 EV when Texas flipped, but this was just a temporary shift. Today Trump's Barely number fell back to 79 EV as Texas moved back up, which was offset by both Arizona and North Carolina moving back into his column from being Tied. Trump finishes the period with 79 EV in Barely, an improvement of 11 EV.

I always consider the best measurement of a candidate's strength to be "Strong plus Weak," and Trump showed some movement here (which you can see as the middle line in the above graph). Trump started at 178 EV in Strong plus Weak, bounced a little down to 172 EV (the loss of Iowa to Barely Trump) before improving to 183 EV. The loss of Texas down to Barely dropped Trump's Strong plus Weak number down to 143 EV, but it recovered today and winds up at 183 EV for the period -- for a net gain of 5 EV.

Now let's take a look at Kamala Harris's chart to see how she's been doing:

While Harris didn't improve her overall position, as you can see her Strong numbers did improve. This was the result of some states being polled which hadn't been since Harris had replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket (as well as some other movement). Some of these states (Connecticut and Massachusetts) merely confirmed that they were indeed Strong states for Harris. But Rhode Island moved where it always should have been, from Weak up to Strong for Harris.

Harris also showed improvement in two states with more-regular polling, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Both moved from Weak to Strong for Harris this period. However, this was offset somewhat by Maine moving down from Strong to Weak. Virginia fluctuated between Strong and Weak twice but ended up in the Weak column for Harris.

Harris started the period with 189 EV in Strong, which is where that first spike in the dark-blue section is in her graph. From there, her Strong numbers went down (but only for one day, as Virginia softened up in one poll) to 176 EV. Her Strong numbers then improved up to 194 EV before hitting a high point of 198 EV. With the loss (again) of Virginia, though, this fell back to 185 EV, for a net loss of 4 EV for the period. That's still a pretty good position to be in, compared to Trump only having 111 EV in this category.

Harris's Weak numbers also ping-ponged around a bit during this period, but as you can see on that chart, it was all movement between Weak and Strong as they mirrored each other while states moved back and forth. Harris started with 37 EV in Weak, jumped up to 50 EV before sliding down gradually to only 28 EV and then recovering back up to 41 EV. This was a net gain of the same 4 EV she lost in the Strong category.

Harris lost some ground in the Barely category, first by losing Michigan to Trump (before gaining it back again) and then through losing North Carolina to Trump. Her numbers sank from 66 EV at the start of the period to 50 EV -- the loss of North Carolina's 16 EV.

Throughout the entire period, as mentioned, Harris's Strong plus Weak number didn't budge a bit, staying at 226 EV for the entire period. Again, by comparison, Trump is currently at only 183 EV in Strong plus Weak.

 

My Picks

As usual, this is where my gut feelings enter into things. I actually got confirmation in a few states that my gut feelings were correct, as Arkansas, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island all finally got polled with Harris on the ticket rather than Joe Biden, and they all showed pretty much exactly what I expected.

It has been two weeks since our last column, but there wasn't a whole lot of overall movement. A few states made minor shifts, but only one (Iowa, also polled for the first time with Harris) was truly surprising (Trump only has a slight edge there, apparently).

Also as usual, all of these picks are divided into "Safe," "Probable," and "Leaning" for each candidate, with a final: "Too Close To Call" category at the end.

 

Likely States -- Harris

Safe Harris (18 states, 209 EV)
Last time around, I optimistically moved both Maine and Virginia up from Probable Harris to Safe, but since then polling in both states has wavered a tiny bit, so at least for this week I am moving them back down again. In both states, the polls seem to be on the edge of being a 10-plus point Harris advantage and slightly below, so eventually I'll probably move both states back up again, but for the nonce I am being conservative. The good news for Harris here is that both New Mexico and New Hampshire saw improvements in polling, so both of them have moved up from Probable Harris to balance out the loss of Maine and Virginia.

Probable Harris (2 states, 17 EV)
As just stated, Maine and Virginia moved back down this week, swapping places with New Mexico and New Hampshire, which both moved up. Otherwise, no movement here.

 

Likely States -- Trump

Safe Trump (19 states, 123 EV)
Again, it seems I assumed too much last time around, when I moved Iowa up from Probable Trump, without any polling to back such a move up. Well, a new poll was released and it showed Trump surprisingly weak, so Iowa's got to move down to at least just Probable Trump. An argument could be made that it should move even further, down to Lean Trump, but I have a hard time believing that, personally. Trump did get some numbers confirming earlier gut calls here, as Indiana and Arkansas both saw their first polling since Harris took over from Joe Biden. Both showed very strong numbers for Trump, as I expected. But both states were already in this category, so no changes are necessary.

Probable Trump (4 states, 66 EV)
Iowa moves down here from Safe Trump, as mentioned. Texas saw two polls that also showed Trump's margin at less than five percent, but then a better one posted today which had slightly better numbers. There's an argument that Texas should even move down to just Lean Trump, but again, I just have a hard time believing Harris would even have a chance in the Lone Star State. Two other states remain in this category with no changes: Alaska and Ohio.

 

Tossup States

Lean Harris (2 states, 25 EV)
No change here from last time around, as both Michigan and Wisconsin still qualify as Tossup states, but with Harris having a slight edge.

[And I have to add a correction to something from my last column here, as when talking about Wisconsin I mistakenly wrote: "adding favorite-son Tim Walz to the ticket gives me more confidence in saying this, I should mention." Tim Walz is, of course, not from Wisconsin but from next-door neighbor Minnesota. My apologies for the error. Mea culpa.]

Lean Trump (2 states, 46 EV)
This may prove to be a temporary shift, but I had to move Georgia up from Too Close To Call to Lean Trump this time around. The polling has been close, but Trump has held an edge for the past two weeks and just got one poll with good numbers, so I had to move it up. Florida also remains here, as the polls continue to be surprisingly close there.

Too Close To Call (4 states, 52 EV)
Four states stayed the same here, while one moved up. Trump's numbers looked better in Georgia, as just mentioned. Which leaves Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as Too Close To Call this time around. My gut tells me to move Nevada up to Lean Harris, but polling there is notoriously hard to do and the last poll showed a tie, so I reluctantly am leaving it here for now. Pennsylvania also seems to have a slight edge for Harris, but it's not enough (and not consistent enough) for me to move it up.

 

Final Tally

We essentially remain where we have been since August -- with an incredibly close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Harris was the clear winner in the debate with Trump two weeks ago, but it didn't really translate into much of a bump in her polling -- at least not at the level of the battleground states (which is where it matters).

For the second time in a row, both Trump and Harris remained exactly the same in their Safe and Probable states, with Harris at 226 EV in the same 20 states as before and Trump at 189 EV in the same 23 states.

Adding in their Lean states gives no definitive indications either. Harris has 25 EV in her Lean category, which adds up to a total of 251 EV -- 19 EV short of the goal. This is exactly what she had at the start of the period. Trump has 46 EV in his Lean category, which gives him a total of 235 EV -- a deficit of 35 EV from the goal, but an overall improvement of 16 EV (since Georgia moved into his Lean category).

Or to sum it all up in the shortest possible way: It's still going to be a nail-biter, folks. Buckle up! We've now got only six weeks to go....

 

[Full Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name -- and please note a lot of these have changed since 2020, due to the reallocation of House seats after the Census. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)

Kamala Harris Likely Easy Wins -- 20 States -- 226 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 18 States -- 209 Electoral Votes
California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawai'i (4), Illinois (19), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 17 Electoral Votes
Maine (4), Virginia (13)

 

Donald Trump Likely Easy Wins -- 23 States -- 189 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 19 States -- 123 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 4 States -- 66 Electoral Votes
Alaska (3), Iowa (6), Ohio (17), Texas (40)

 

Tossup States -- 8 States -- 123 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Harris -- 2 States -- 25 Electoral Votes

Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10)

Tossup States Leaning Trump -- 2 States -- 46 Electoral Votes
Florida (30), Georgia (16)

Too Close To Call -- 4 States -- 52 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19)

 

Polling data gaps:

[Note: during the primaries, Zogby conducted a poll in every state on April 21, with the sole exception of Washington D.C., which has had no polling at all this cycle. But I thought it'd be more useful to keep track here of which states have not been polled since Joe Biden dropped out of the race.]

New polling data -- 6 States
(States polled with Harris for the first time since our previous column, with the dates of the new poll in parenthesis.)

Arkansas (9/6), Connecticut (9/18), Indiana (9/13), Iowa (9/11), Massachusetts (9/18), Rhode Island (9/18)

No polling data with Harris -- 16 States
(States which have not been polled since July 21st, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)

Alabama (4/21), Alaska (4/21), Delaware (4/21), Hawai'i (4/21), Idaho (4/21), Kansas (4/21), Kentucky (4/21), Louisiana (4/26), Mississippi (4/21), New Jersey (4/21), North Dakota (4/21), Oregon (4/21), South Carolina (4/21), South Dakota (5/13), Washington D.C. (--), Wyoming (4/21)

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant