Picturing The Post-Trump Republican Party
While waiting for tonight's vice-presidential debate I find myself reflecting on a question I've been occasionally wondering about over the past few years: what will a post-Trump Republican Party look like? We'll all be seeing one possibility tonight, as JD Vance takes the stage to debate Tim Walz. Because whether Donald Trump wins or loses the presidential race this time around, Vance seems poised to perhaps move into a sort of "MAGA heir apparent" role within his party. After all, Trump picked him to put on the ticket, which is more than anyone else can say (other than Mike Pence, of course, but the less said about him the better). But he'll likely have some challengers for the mantle of party leader once Trump somehow exits the scene.
Sooner or later, Donald Trump will cease to be the center of the Republican universe. This could happen in a number of ways, of course. He is 78 years old, and he's not going to live forever (although it is worth mentioning that today is the 100th birthday of Jimmy Carter, so Trump could still be around for quite some time to come).
If Trump wins the election, he will be term-limited -- he will not be able to run again. If he loses the election, he'll then be branded a "two-time loser," which might finally be enough for the majority of Republican voters to want to move on to something else. Or he could eventually wind up in jail, which would necessarily limit his political reach (one would assume).
If Trump loses again, of course he is not going to quietly concede and fade into the background. As we've already seen, that's not exactly his style. He will contest the results in yet another epic hissy fit, and nobody really knows what he'll call on his followers to do. The U.S. Capitol will be heavily protected next January 6th, so a repeat of what happened in 2021 is not likely to occur. Any altercations between Trump supporters and the police will happen far away from the building itself, which will (this time) have an adequate amount of security forces deployed.
But that's all just in the short (or maybe medium) term after the election. Any demonstrations or unrest will almost certainly die down after Kamala Harris is sworn into office. What Trump faces next will be an onslaught of legal cases that he's been successfully delaying. So he might just immediately announce his bid for the presidency in 2028, so that he can once again claim that he is being persecuted as a political opponent. This will also allow him to easily raise money for his legal defenses.
Even if he does announce he is running again, however, the next time around might not be as smooth sailing as his primary campaign was this time around. Trump will likely still have the core of MAGA voters behind him, but other Republicans might be a lot more bold about challenging him as leader of their party. And they'll have an excellent argument to make: "Do you really want to lose again?"
One way or another, eventually there's going to be a real battle for the soul of the Republican Party, whenever (and however) it moves on from the Donald Trump era. The big question is what that's going to look like.
Will Republicans double down on "Trumpism," or will they try to move their party back to what it was in the pre-Trump era? If JD Vance slips into the role of leading the party faithful, then Trumpism will continue (although it will probably slowly morph away from at least some of Trump's bizarre and often-contradictory positions). It doesn't even have to be Vance -- as the GOP primary this year showed, it could be someone else willing to try to out-Trump Trump (although Ron DeSantis probably won't be leading the effort next time around). There are plenty of MAGAfied Republicans in both the House and Senate who already have nationwide followings who might make a bid for replacing Trump at the top of the party. One of them might emerge as "the next Trump," especially if Trump somehow didn't decide to run again and instead bestowed his endorsement upon them.
The other direction the Republican Party could go would be to move back to some sort of political sanity. I highly doubt that one of the most prominent anti-Trump Republicans would lead this charge (it would strain credulity to imagine someone like Liz Cheney grabbing the reins of the party's leadership, to put this another way). But it could be someone from Trump's orbit who hasn't completely burned their bridges with the party as it stands today, who could rather gently turn the GOP back to being traditionally conservative. Nikki Haley is the obvious candidate to do so (she got further in her run against Trump than any of the other GOP primary candidates, after all), but it could easily be someone similar -- someone who has been (mostly) on Trump's good side but who obviously isn't all that happy with the direction he has led the party in.
Of course, there's another way things could shake out as well -- Trump could try to create his own political dynasty. Donald Trump Junior certainly seems willing to pick up the mantle of his dad, and he's not even the only one. Lara Trump is now one of the people running the Republican National Committee, and she has expressed interest in running for public office as well. What better replacement for Donald Trump than someone who shares his last name, after all? If any of Trump's relatives emerges as his political successor, obviously the party won't be heading in any sort of new direction any time soon.
It's impossible to know how things will shake out, of course. The likelihood that the Republican Party will still be an awfully Trumpy party even after Donald Trump fades seems pretty high. The struggle will likely be mostly between Trump wannabes and Mini-Mes, who will all present themselves as somehow even better than Trump himself: "Trump, but smarter," or "Trump, but more effective," or "Trump, but with less bullying," or "Trump, but... (whatever... fill in the blank)."
So when watching JD Vance tonight, I will be looking at him as not just Trump's running mate but also as a possible successor to the entire MAGA movement. This is how Vance has positioned himself, and while generally unpopular with voters as a whole he seems to be perfectly acceptable to hardcore Trump supporters. Will Vance emerge at some point in the future as the new face of the Republican Party? It's impossible to say, but at this point he's certainly the best-positioned Republican to make a bid for it, that's for sure.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Will Vance emerge at some point in the future as the new face of the Republican Party?
Only if that Party splits in two; otherwise, I don't think so. Vance is a total two-faced phony. I have never in my life seen a politician as inauthentic as James Donald Bowman, James David Hamel, or whatever it is he's calling himself these days.
Only in America could a Yale-educated venture capitalist backed by a sugar daddy Silicon Valley tech billionaire, Peter Thiel, become a hero of hillbillies... a total flip-flopping fake populist.
Chris Christie would eat this guy for lunch.
Well, the "Fairly Accomplished Debater" {sic} DID accomplish one thing last night..
NO BALLZ Walz established that he made friends with school shooters.. :eyeroll:
As I said he would, JD Vance totally obliterated Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz..
And you people HONESTLY believe that Demon'rats will win the White House??
THAT'S hilarious.. :D
Yet the snap opinion on who won is basically even and Walz got a better a better polling boost. Seems reality disagrees with you...
Vance is a better liar than Trump but a liar none the less. Why would you vote for someone blowing that much smoke up your ass?
AKA Vance: The rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact check!
* There was no such rule - just another lie.
* The woman hater called two women "you guys".
* If he's gonna whine about not getting away with lying, he should really save it for the Fox Defamation Channel.
He's not very good at this.
Governor Walz: Did he lose the 2020 election?
AKA Vance: Tim, I'm focused on the future.
LOL. I'm pretty sure that the sectional predator's failing, demented, sex offender boss expected a shorter answer (No.). The senator doesn't have an issue with lying, so what was his angle? Maybe it's just that he's not very good at this or maybe he's expecting to lose and focusing on a future where Big Orange is wearing an orange jumpsuit and he's the MAGA heir apparent. He can't be trusted Donold.
I have to admit… Vance is a much better liar than Trump has ever been! Very impressive. Trump SAVED ObamaCare??? Trump peacefully handed over the presidency to Biden in 2021??? No matter how much better of a liar Vance may be, there are some lies that no one can tell successfully!
I am curious as to how Trump will handle the praise Vance will receive from everyone. Compared to Trump, Vance almost appeared presidential!
John From Censornati
5
Governor Walz: Did he lose the 2020 election?
AKA Vance: Tim, I'm focused on the future.
I know, right!? Not only does Vance flatly refuse to answer the question, he then totally deflects to another subject and ignorantly asks Walz, "Did Kamala Harris censor Americans from speaking their mind in the wake of the 2020 COVID situation?"... which I don't care how gullible or ignorant of a MAGA moron or how deep up Trump's ass his cult members heads are, deflection to an asinine question about the "wake of 2020" is in no way, shape or form indicative of being "focused on the future." Walz is dead-on accurate: "That is a damning non-answer." Walz should have added (missed opportunity) that Vance is only standing there across the podium from him because Trump definitely lost the election and Vice President Pence refused to join in the Trump-led conspiracy to force Pence to defraud millions of voters in multiple states out of their votes by accepting knowingly illegally falsified certificates of ascertainment put together by Trump's campaign and delivered to the National Archives with the aim that Mike Pence would accept the fraudulent records, and then Walz should have reminded Americans that falsifying records is exactly what Trump was convicted of not once, not twice but 34 times and for which he'll be sentenced for his crimes next month.
LOL. I'm pretty sure that the sectional predator's failing, demented, sex offender boss expected a shorter answer (No.).
Sectional predator! Heh. I like the way you think, John.
The senator doesn't have an issue with lying, so what was his angle?
Vance did a lot of non-answering which was accomplished by speaking about himself and his family and pretending to be forthcoming while being totally evasive and filling time with attempts to boost that favorability rating that's in the toilet for a myriad of stupid things he's said that he definitely now has no problem keeping a straight face and blatantly lying about, for instance: "I never supported a national ban." Total LIE. In 2002, Vance said he "would like abortion to be illegal nationally," and he also backed Lindsey Graham's proposal for a federal abortion ban after 15 weeks. Regardless of the obvious lying, it's just dumb as a bag of hammers to use the word "never" in any debate.
Maybe it's just that he's not very good at this or maybe he's expecting to lose and focusing on a future where Big Orange is wearing an orange jumpsuit and he's the MAGA heir apparent.
Vance is a smooth bullshitting liar, maybe even Emmy worthy for "Best Performance by a Gaslighting Liar in a Televised Debate" (but only because he's better at it than Trump), but that doesn't change the fact that Vance basically sold his soul by carrying Traitorous Trump's reeking water that has a stench so foul it's going to carry a long-lasting linger.
ListenWhenYouHear
6
I have to admit… Vance is a much better liar than Trump has ever been! Very impressive.
Emmy worthy, even.
Trump SAVED ObamaCare???
This is lying at the level of gaslighting. Even the MAGA cult minions know this is a lie.
Trump peacefully handed over the presidency to Biden in 2021???
I know, right!? Only if you count January 20th and ignore all the Trump-led conspiracy including falsifying records and attempting to force your vice president into recognizing the fraudulent certificates of ascertainment you conspired to forge. Pay no attention to the fact Trump would have been escorted off the White House grounds by law enforcement if he hadn't left the premises that final day after attempting desperately to overturn an election he lost bigly... in a landslide by Trump's own definition.
Love you, Russ! :)