The Battle For The Senate
The makeup of next year's incoming Senate is anybody's guess, at this point. Republicans could wind up winning control, Democrats could wind up maintaining their control, and it all might come down to who wins the White House (since the vice president would break a 50-50 tie for control). From the way things look, there are a handful of states which will determine who winds up with a majority.
Right now, it looks like Democrats have a path to maintaining at least 50 seats, although it would depend on winning one rather strange race. Democrats currently have 51 senators caucusing with them (this includes Independents), but they are certain to lose at least one of these seats, and there is one other that also looks like it will flip to the Republicans. With the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, the Republicans will have a very easy pickup. And Senator Jon Tester of Montana is in a fight for his political life -- which he may very well lose. He's behind by over five points in the polling, but Montana is a notoriously hard state to poll and Tester has won three times, proving he's a pretty good fit for the state. However, his luck may run out this year.
Democrats seem to be holding on in two other races that were always going to be close. Senator Sherrod Brown is hanging on in Ohio, even though the state has become redder and redder over the past decade or more. But Brown is very popular, and so far it looks like his challenger is going to fall short. Michigan's Senator Elissa Slotkin also seems to be holding a slight edge as well. Holding on to both of these seats will be crucial for Democratic chances of retaining control of the Senate.
There are a few other races that could be close, but probably won't. At this point, the seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Maryland all look pretty safe for Democrats. Maryland in particular was a race that gave Democrats something to worry about, since the Republican candidate for the open seat is the well-beloved (even by Maryland Democrats) former governor of the state, Larry Hogan. But he's over ten points behind in the polling, meaning he wasn't as big a threat as some had predicted.
Democratic candidates are doing surprisingly well in two very red states, mostly because the Republican senators from them are wildly unpopular. In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz is only leading Democrat Colin Allred by two points. In Florida, Senator Rick Scott is leading Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by only three points. Either one would be a gigantic upset if the Democrat prevails, but in both states (particularly in Texas) Democrats have a history of getting their hopes sky-high only to see them dashed on Election Day (remember Beto O'Rourke?). The problem for Democrats is that the dream is so delicious... winning control of the Senate by ousting Ted Cruz... which is about as catnippy as you can get, in Democratic circles.
When you add all of this up, you come up with 50 Republican seats to 49 Democratic seats. That's assuming Republicans pick up both West Virginia and Montana and fend off the challengers in Texas and Florida, while Democrats hold the line in Ohio and Michigan (and Maryland). Which leaves one unusual race, in Nebraska of all places.
Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer would normally have a pretty smooth path to getting re-elected. The state as a whole is about as red as you can get, and in the other Senate race here (due to Senator Ben Sasse retiring), the Republican is up by 18 points over the Democratic candidate. But the Fischer race is a lot closer.
The reason the race is an odd one is that Fischer isn't being challenged by a Democrat, but by an Independent. Dan Osborn is "a mechanic, military veteran and union leader who led a successful 11-week strike against Kellogg's in 2021" (who was registered as a Democrat up until 2016), and the latest poll out of the Cornhusker State has him up by five points over Fischer. The previous poll had him up by one point.
Nebraska Democrats didn't field a candidate to give Osborn a better chance at victory, but he has steadfastly refused to say he will caucus with the Democrats if he wins. He says he won't caucus with either party, in a sort of "pox on both your houses" stance.
However, should Osborn win, he may be the fulcrum on which the Senate will tilt. If all the other states go as expected and Kamala Harris wins the White House (making Tim Walz the president of the Senate), then how Osborn caucuses will throw control of the chamber either to Republicans or to the Democrats. If he makes good on his promise not to caucus with either party, then the Republicans will run the Senate.
Of course, Osborn would face a monumental amount of pressure to relent on his promise. Especially when he starts considering what committees he would want to serve on. A true Independent -- a senator without a party -- would be last on the list for choice committee assignments. An Independent who caucuses with one party or the other (such as Bernie Sanders, for instance) gets rewarded by the party with choice assignments. That's the way the power structure is set up.
Osborn may not win, of course. The Republican Party has woken up to their weakness and is now reportedly pumping money into the race. But at least he seems to have a fighting chance, even in this incredibly-red state.
Democrats only have a very slim path to retaining control in the Senate. The likelihood is that the Republicans will wind up controlling the chamber, and with Mitch McConnell stepping down as their leader, they'll have a whole new power structure if they do secure control. For Democrats to win, they have to hold on in the battleground states and win the presidential election -- and then either hold on in Montana or flip Texas, Florida, or the Nebraska race. Those are very long odds, which is why the likelihood at this point is that Republicans will wind up in control next year.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I really hope Rick Scott doesn't take majority leader. he is the slimiest of the slimy.
@JL
the rolling RCP average is tied in PA, Harris up in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, Trump up in GA, NC, AZ. nobody up by more than 1.7 points in any swing state. not saying i believe one way or another; i maintain that it's Donald's race to lose, but he's doing a pretty good job of losing it so far.
I am sure you can find polls that claim what you say.. But the polls I quoted were directly from RCP... And I am sure that your polls don't take into account the proven FACT that President Trump is always under-polled..
But hay..
Let's forget about polls..
One just has to answer one simple basic question..
What 2 brain-celled America hating moron is actually going to VOTE for 4 more years of Basement Biden/Headboard Harris/Demon'rat policies that gave this country death, destruction and super high prices on EVERYTHING??
What sane patriotic American is going to vote for THAT!??
And let's not forget.. Those 2 brain-celled America hating morons that WOULD vote for Basement Biden/Headboard Harris/Demon'rats are the same morons who said that Basement Biden would finish and win the election..
So, there ain't much credibility there, eh?? :D
I really hope Rick Scott doesn't take majority leader. he is the slimiest of the slimy.
No more slimy than Alan Schiff or any of the other slimy Demon'rat so-called "leadership"...
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Does this help?
"What!!!?? We've given you all there is!!! There is no more money!!"
Basement Biden to Helene survivors
What!?? You need more money!?? Sure!! Here's Tens Of Billions more dollars..."
Basement Biden to Illegal Immigrants and President Zelensky of Ukraine
:eyeroll:
I saids it befores and I'll says it again...
No one but a brain dead Demon'rat moron would vote for more Basement Biden/Headboard Harris/Demon'rat America-wrecking policies....
@Voice
Dunno.. Broken link..
But THIS really helps.. :D
http://mfccfl.us/CivilWar.jpg
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Demon'rats = Lusers
Here's another good link that will help you comprehend the reality... :D
http://mfccfl.us/TamponTim.jpg
:D
Basement Biden and Token DEI-Hire Headboard Harris is preventing aid from reaching Helene survivors
http://mfccfl.us/FEMA.jpg
Why would Demon'rats want HELENE survivors to suffer and die??
Because they are President Trump voters.. That's why... :eyeroll:
mfccfl DOT us/iconic.jpg
ICONIC as defined by patriotic Americans
mfccfl DOT us/JoeBiden.jpg
ICONIC as defined by America hating Demon'rats
Says it all.... :eyeroll:
Dam, with Trump Vance and Musk blowing that much smoke up your ass I would bet you look like the snake and frog from the first Shrek movie...
Demon'rat Water Carrier brutally takes Jack Smith down for his election interference...
CNN legal analyst says Special Counsel Jack Smith bent rules to get ‘cheap shot’ in on Trump before election
CNN's senior legal analyst said Smith engaged in 'unprincipled, norm-breaking practice'
Special Counsel Jack Smith "bent ordinary procedure" to kneecap former President Trump after he failed to try the candidate before the November election, a legal analyst argued in a piece for New York magazine.
In Thursday's "Jack Smith's October Cheap Shot" essay, CNN senior legal analyst Elie Honig analyzed Smith's decision to drop a 165-page federal court filing related to the issue of Trump's immunity from prosecution.
According to Honig, Smith successfully received permission from Judge Tanya Chutkan to file a 180-page-long brief — four times the normal maximum.
Honig noted that Chutkan now claims she does not care about the upcoming election despite earlier efforts to expedite Trump's immunity and get it in before Nov. 5. After redacting several names, she complied with Smith's request and made the rest of the brief public.
Ironically enough, it's all completely irrelevant...
Jack Smith's appointment has been ruled unconstitutional so what he says doesn't matter one iota... He is a non-entity, useless to the nth degree...
President Trump is 100% completely and unequivocally INNOCENT of ALL of lame Smith's accusations...
This is documented FACT... :D
Michale [10]
That's worth a good 10-15 psi of smoke. Starting to approach Mr. Creosote...
Debate Revealed Walz To Be a Fraud--and a Lightweight.
The debate proved on salient fact that is unequivocally indisputable..
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris made the most bone-head of errors when she selected Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz as her running mate...
The moron NO BALLZ Walz brings absolutely NOTHING to the table..
His "Coach" persona?? BWWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA He was a volunteer ASSISTANT coach whose only job was to sniff the jock straps of the players to make sure their clean...
His folksy dad persona?? Yea, he comes across as a Bill Cosby folksy dad..
And all his BS and lies?? Funny how Demon'rats are so obsessed with President Trump's alleged lies, but turn a blind eye to all of Tampon Tim's and Headboard Harris' lies..
Hypocrisy. It's not a bug in Demon'rat programming. It's a feature..
Vance ate NO BALLZ Walz' lunch in the debate.. Anyone who says different is lying.....
And yet Walz has the highest favorability of all the candidates and it only went up after the debate. Me thinks you are trying to deflate by blowing smoke up our collective asses...
Jack Smith's appointment has been ruled unconstitutional so what he says doesn't matter one iota... He is a non-entity, useless to the nth degree...
Right, you and Trump just love to rant and complain about a person who can do nothing to Trump whatsoever! Is that it? You aren’t worried he’s gonna hold Trump to answer for his criminal actions? Nah, of course that isn’t it! And who ruled Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional, again? If it is ”completely irrelevant”, why are you so worried?