The Election Could Be Determined By Nine Votes
The Supreme Court began its new year today. This could wind up being the most consequential term for the high court since they decided Bush v. Gore. Because unless Donald Trump scores a clear win in November -- winning so many of the battleground states that challenging the result would be pointless -- we are likely to see the election results wind up before the Supreme Court in one way or another. Which will give them the power, once again, of determining who will be president for the next four years.
Right now this is all hypothetical, of course. But it could get very real very fast. The last time around, Trump filed over 60 court cases challenging the election results. The effort was led by a clown car full of lawyers, led by the likes of Rudy Giuliani (who has since been disbarred). This time could be different, though -- Trump may actually convince some lawyers with a wee bit more talent and a whole lot less craziness to lead his legal team.
If Kamala Harris wins the election, Trump will sue. That much seems absolutely guaranteed. Other than golf, suing people is Trump's main hobby, after all. He'll make wild claims without any proof whatsoever and rant and rave as loudly as he can. Again, this is all but certain -- just look at what he did last time, if you have any doubts. And he will appeal any decisions against him all the way up to the Supreme Court. This also is a pretty safe bet, since Trump always appeals decisions he doesn't like.
Politico even took the time to list eight separate ways the 2024 election could wind up before the Supreme Court. Here's their list:
- Pennsylvania's mail-in ballot rules could be challenged (which could throw out a whole bunch of votes -- possibly enough to flip the state).
- Hurricane disruptions in North Carolina could lead to emergency adjustments by elections officials (such as extending deadlines) which could be challenged in court.
- Georgia's activist election board could try to throw out votes indiscriminately, which would be challenged.
- Ballots which arrive after Election Day (but postmarked either before or on Election Day) could be challenged.
- Arizona's election policy could be challenged (which might lead to entire counties' votes not being counted).
- Bush v. Gore redux. If things come down to a very close result in a single state, the recount rules will likely be challenged once again (as they were in the 2000 election in Florida).
- The new Electoral Count Reform Act's constitutionality could be questioned. This is a new law intended to tighten the process of the Electoral College's votes, so it has never been tested in court before.
- Trump could win and then Democrats in Congress vote to bar him from the presidency, throwing the election to Harris. This is rather far-fetched, but that's what the court seemed to indicate was allowable when they ruled on whether Trump could be kept off state ballots (due to the Fourteenth Amendment's bar to office for anyone who has taken part in an insurrection against the country).
Even this shouldn't be seen as a definitive list of the possible court battles, though. Trump (and his legal team) will make any argument under the sun -- no matter how unfounded or unproven or even just laughably idiotic and/or insane. Trump, after all, is still convinced he won the last election, so he is not going to accept a loss this time around either. And as we've just seen with all the hurricane conspiracy theories, there is no conspiracy theory too crazy for Trump. Trump still thinks he won California, after all.
Trump will pounce on every internet rumor that pops up. He'll likely contribute to the chaos with his own conspiracy theories as well. Trump now has the entire Republican Party cowed into either believing all his conspiracies or at the very least refusing to contradict them in any way to the public. That sets the stage for all kinds of craziness from Trump, post-election. Prominent Republicans can't even contradict Trump's Big Lie about the last election (for fear of their own GOP voters), so it'd be hard to see any of them suddenly growing a backbone and standing up for the truth after this election either.
Unfortunately, the only way all of this will definitely be avoided is if Trump wins in a landslide. If Trump wins big, why would he even bother to challenge any of the results? Democrats might file some lawsuits, but this is unlikely if the result in any one battleground state wouldn't really matter. If the results are close or if Harris is the clear winner, Trump's lawyers will spring into action.
The last time around, the Supreme Court didn't really get involved in any of Trump's dozens of court cases. They mostly just refused to hear Trump's appeals. This time around Trump could file hundreds of court cases instead of just dozens, however. And there are a number of Supreme Court justices who seem ready and willing to rule that Trump deserves to be our next president no matter what the voters have to say about it.
Perhaps it won't matter, in the end. Perhaps the Supreme Court will uphold judges who laugh Trump's cases right out of court. Perhaps they high court will largely refuse to get involved, similar to the way they did last time around.
But then, with this Supreme Court, you never know. Which is a scary thing to contemplate as the court begins its new session.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Pennsylvania's mail-in ballot rules could be challenged (which could throw out a whole bunch of votes -- possibly enough to flip the state).
There are already numerous cases in Pennsylvania attempting to challenge the mail-in ballot rules. The most recent cases of the GOP/RNC to disenfranchise voters in PA were filed with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court without first going through the lower courts for relief so they were unanimously denied two days ago.
Democracy Docket is the only website I'm aware that tracks the numerous cases:
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/state/pennsylvania/
Hurricane disruptions in North Carolina could lead to emergency adjustments by elections officials (such as extending deadlines) which could be challenged in court.
Those emergency adjustments were actually approved unanimously today by the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
https://www.ncsbe.gov/news/press-releases/2024/10/07/bipartisan-state-board-unanimously-approves-measures-help-wnc-voters
I know of only one Party who would sue to disenfranchise North Carolinians, and it's the one who is spreading misinformation about the hurricane response and already has around half a dozen lawsuits filed in North Carolina.