What I'll Be Watching For On Election Night
Election Day is still over two weeks away, so this might seem a little premature, but I thought I'd write today about the key races I will be watching as the night of November 5th unfolds. Because while the main event will be the presidential election, as we saw last time around these things can drag on for not just hours but days, and in the meantime there are plenty of other races worth paying attention to.
Since the Earth spins the way it does, the night of the election will be a staggered event, starting on the East Coast and moving slowly westward. How fast all the races will be called will depend on a number of variables -- when the polls close in each state, how fast they count votes, and how close the races are, just to name the biggest ones.
So what follows is a rough timeline of the races I will be watching, as it all unfolds on the evening of Election Day.
North Carolina (president, governor)
North Carolina, on the East Coast, will close their polls earlier than most other states. And unlike Pennsylvania and Georgia, they seem to count their votes faster, at least in general terms. So this could be the first battleground state to be "called" by the news organizations. There are two races worth watching here: president (of course) and governor.
The presidential race could wind up being a real bellwether for the other battlegrounds... or it might not. North Carolina is polling just about even, with Kamala Harris perhaps having a razor-thin majority (but not in every poll). So a win for either her or Donald Trump could set the stage for what is to follow elsewhere.
A few days ago, I heard a professional poll-watcher say something rather extraordinary -- that the likeliest result of the presidential race would be for Harris to sweep all seven battleground states, but that the second-likeliest result would be Trump sweeping all seven. In other words, it's a coin toss and nobody really knows. But if the state-level pollsters get things wrong in a big way -- in either direction -- they might have made the same errors in all the battlegrounds. If there are a bunch of hidden Trump voters in North Carolina, they may also exist elsewhere, and if Harris is really stronger than the polls are showing then that might also be reflected elsewhere as well.
If North Carolina reports its results very early, it will probably be because the winner racked up a big enough margin to make the outcome obvious. So that's what I'll be watching for, no matter which way the domino tilts. Of course, if it is super-close, we may not get North Carolina's results until far later in the night (or the next day).
The governor's race in North Carolina is also an interesting one, as the Republican is one of those ultra-MAGA candidates with quite a few skeletons in the closet. Remember the "Black Nazi" postings on the porn site? That's him. So it'll be interesting to see if the Democrat manages to defeat such an obviously-flawed candidate.
Florida (Senate, abortion rights)
At one point, Senator Rick Scott was looking vulnerable, but Democrats haven't really invested a whole lot of money into this race (and Florida campaigns are costly), so I am expecting to hear that Scott easily wins re-election fairly early in the evening.
Florida also has an abortion rights measure on the ballot, but even if it gets a majority of the votes it may not pass. Florida set the bar at 60 percent for such measures, and while it seems certain that over 50 percent of Floridians are going to vote to reinstitute abortion rights in the state, it is not certain that they will hit 60 percent. If the measure does pass, it is going to cause some very hard reassessments in the Republican Party about the electoral damage the issue is doing to them, that's for sure. If it fails to get 60 percent, it probably won't slow down the movement for abortion rights much but it might just convince other Republican states to also raise the bar that high for allowing such measures to pass.
New York (House)
New York could indicate early on in the night how good the chances will be of Democrats winning back control of the House of Representatives. Back in 2022, there was supposed to be a "red wave" propelling Republicans to a landslide victory -- but it didn't really materialize. Not in most states, at least. But Republicans actually did pretty well in both New York and California, picking up swing districts that shocked the Democrats. This year will be a referendum on how the voters think they have done. By winning just a few suburban districts in New York and a few more-rural districts in California, Democrats could win back the speaker's gavel, so it'll be interesting to see if this happens, starting in New York.
Maryland (Senate)
Larry Hogan, the well-loved former Republican governor of this very blue state, might have won in a normal year (and for a while the prospect was worrying Democrats), but at this point it looks like the state's voters were happy enough with him in the governor's office but are also not ready to hand one of their Senate seats to the Republican Party.
Maine (president in the "red dot" district)
Maine and Nebraska are the two states who don't award their Electoral College votes as a bloc, so while Maine is almost certainly going to go for Harris as a whole, one of their congressional districts might wind up in Donald Trump's column. If Harris wins the "red dot" district instead, it might mean the Nebraska "blue dot" district isn't going to be the deciding factor in the Electoral College. But for her to do so would be a big accomplishment, so I'll be watching to see whether she manages this upset or not.
Georgia and Pennsylvania (president)
As we saw last time around, we may not get the results for either of these states on Election Night. Pennsylvania, in particular, could be the biggest prize of the entire election. Without the Keystone State (which may live up to it's nickname this year, obviously), it would be very hard for either candidate to put together a winning margin. So let's hope it doesn't take days and days until the results are known (it is worth mentioning that Pennsylvania's slow pace is the direct result of Republicans in the state legislature refusing to allow elections officials to count any votes before the polls close, which is incredibly inefficient and wastes a lot of time).
Georgia will likely not have to deal with all the last-minute new election rules the Republican state board tried to impose, which were all designed to throw sand in the gears of counting and certifying the results. But this doesn't mean everything is going to go perfectly smoothly there, so there could be any number of things that gum up the works on Election Night.
Ohio (Senate)
Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown might emerge victorious once again, showing his staying power in what has become a very red state. I'm not even going to mention West Virginia's Senate race individually, since everyone knows this will be a Republican pickup (after the retirement of Joe Manchin). But Ohio was going to be a big battle as well, although the polls seem pretty good for Brown at this point, so Democrats will hopefully dodge this particular bullet.
Michigan and Wisconsin (president and Senate)
The Michigan Senate race might also be close, but in both Michigan and Wisconsin the Democrats are likely to prevail. However, these two states could be the key to the entire presidential race for Harris. If Harris manages to pick up both of them and Pennsylvania, she is likely to win the White House. If Harris loses either Michigan or Wisconsin, she'll have to win Pennsylvania and pick up at least one or more other battleground states. If the last time around was any indication, though, we might know the results in these two states before Pennsylvania is called.
Texas (Senate)
Will Ted Cruz go down? Will Texas finally turn at least a little blue? That's the eternal Democratic dream, and if it becomes reality with a Democratic upset this year it could swing the entire Senate. We shall see... we shall see....
Nebraska (president in the "blue dot" district, Senate, abortion)
Nebraska is the other side of the coin from Maine, as they are a very red state with one possible "blue dot" district. If Trump wins the Maine "red dot" and wins all the battleground states except Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then the Nebraska "blue dot" might be the whole ballgame for either side.
Strangely enough, there's a Senate race here that could see the Republicans losing not just one seat but any chance to regain control of the whole chamber. The incumbent Republican, Deb Fischer, is running neck-and-neck with an Independent challenger, while the Democrats didn't put anybody up to give that challenger a clear shot. If there is an upset here, both parties will be wooing the Independent to caucus with them, but Democrats have a better shot of doing so.
There are two competing abortion measures on the ballot in Nebraska as well, one for and one against abortion rights. The one which gains the most votes will negate the other one, even if both win. This will be the first time duelling measures are on the same ballot, so the results will be interesting.
Montana (Senate)
Democrats should prepare for bad news here, as Jon Tester seems like he's not going to get re-elected to one more term. If there are no upsets elsewhere (in Texas, Florida, Maryland, Nebraska, or anywhere else) then Tester's loss might also mean loss of control of the Senate for Democrats. Tester could still pull out a miracle win here, but as I said, Democrats shouldn't count on it.
Arizona and Nevada (president, Senate, abortion)
By the time Arizona and Nevada close their polls for the evening, the race might already be decided. But that would mean early calls for most of the other battleground states, which may not happen on such a timely basis. If we're all waiting for the last five or ten percent of the votes to be counted in Pennsylvania and other more-eastern states, then Arizona and Nevada will loom much more important on all our radars.
Whichever way the states go for president, at this point they seem fairly safe for the two Democrats running for Senate here. The Republicans nominated candidates which haven't done a great job of campaigning or are just too MAGA to win. So I'm hoping for good news from both Senate races.
Both states also have abortion ballot measures as well, and both seem on their way to passing fairly easily.
California (House)
California's Senate race is a foregone conclusion, which will bring heartburn to Republicans everywhere, since Adam Schiff will be our next senator. But as with New York, there are a handful of House districts here that may actually flip control of the chamber. If that control hasn't been decided by the time California returns come in then no matter which party wins control it's going to be with a very small margin (again). If control has already been decided, then California's races will just mean a bigger or smaller majority one way or the other.
Conclusion (such as it is)
These aren't the only big and important races of 2024, I should point out. For instance, abortion rights will be on the ballot in ten states. And there will be other interesting races in both houses of Congress and even in statehouses across the country. But these are the ones I will be watching most closely on Election Night, in the rough order that they will happen.
Besides, we may all need something else to talk about while we wait for all the battleground states to count their last remaining votes. Remember last time around? It took all week... hopefully that won't happen again, but it does remain a possibility.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Thanks, Chris, for that great outline ... it'll be very helpful!
The governor's race in North Carolina is also an interesting one, as the Republican is one of those ultra-MAGA candidates with quite a few skeletons in the closet.
Unfortunately for him, the self-proclaimed nazi has more skeletons out of the closet than in and already had a double-digit deficit of around -15 when the recent news emerged. I've seen internal polling for him that are hovering around -20 recently.
So it'll be interesting to see if the Democrat manages to defeat such an obviously-flawed candidate.
How does this one not get called early? Rhetorical question. This one won't even be close.
Interestingly, the GOP's confidential internal polling is showing many of the races much tighter than the plethora of polls wherein the GOP is now flooding the zone -- American Greatness, OnMessage, Patriot Polling, Trafalgar, etc. -- similar to the 2022 midterms where the right-wing talking heads successfully produced a Red Wave... on paper and on television.
As for 2024, they're talking a big game again that Trump is closing the gap and they're flooding the zone with similar polls. Meanwhile, Trump is cancelling event upon event and whining on his rip-off social media platform that he wants Biden reinstated as the candidate.
I'm just saying their candidate's actions is not exactly reflecting their big talk, and their internal polling is tighter like the midterms. Can I prove it? Only if you trust the GOP not to fabricate their internal polling: GOP's Senate Internal Polling
[2]
Unfortunately for him, there’s no guarantee that even HALF his skeletons are presently out of the closet, no?
MtnCaddy
3
Unfortunately for him, there’s no guarantee that even HALF his skeletons are presently out of the closet, no?
Correct, but allow me to clarify. There are definitely more skeletons a.k.a. "shoes to drop," there's just no real reason to open the oppo research closet and drop them at the present time. :)
It's easy to tell what a disaster for Demon'rats Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris' FOX News interview was..
No one here wants to talk about it. :D
Headboard Harris couldn't answer a SINGLE question with a straight answer.. She would go into her "Look I was raised in a middle class family" -esque non-answers that had NOTHING to do with the question being asked..
And Baier didn't let her get away with anything! :D It was awesome...
The mere fact that the Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris campaign even WENT on Fox News simply proves how completely and utterly desperate her campaign is..
The soft-ball Leftist love fests that Headboard Harris called "interviews" were pushing her numbers further and further down.. She was DESPERATE for a win..
And the Fox News interview was a total trainwreck for her... :D
Look for her campaign to actually consider a real and actual press conference in the near future.. THAT is how desperate they are..
Only a brain dead Trump/America hating moron would actually believe that Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris and Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz actually has a chance of winning..
As nypoet said.. It's President Trump's election.. :D
That's because you only watched the fox edit. Outside your bubble there is quite a different opinion...
Meanwhile, Trump is canceling interviews and appearances because he is exhausted. What were all the jabs you said about Biden? Now do the same for Trump. Oh, sorry, forgot you only do double standards...
Demon'rats can kiss PA goodbye... :D
Latino political and business leaders in Pennsylvania have privately warned the Kamala Harris campaign that it is not doing enough to engage Latino voters and elected officials in the state, imperiling her chances of defeating Donald Trump here.
At a recent reception in Philadelphia, multiple Latino leaders approached Harris staffers and campaign allies privately to deliver versions of that admonition, according to two people who attended the event and were granted anonymity to describe private conversations. And interviews with a dozen Latino Democratic elected officials and strategists in this key swing state reveal ongoing fears that Latino men, in particular, still aren’t on board with Harris.
President Trump is going to win Pennsylvania easily...
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is failing in EVERY Swing state..
Funny how brain dead Trump/America hating Weigantians simply have ZERO FACTS to support claims that Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris and Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz have ANY chance of winning..
The betting markets... yunno.. the places that actually put their money down... all have President Trump winning.. ALL the polls are going President Trump's way...
And now Wall Street is making preparations because they know President Trump will win..
In the last twelve days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT -- his social media company.
Everyone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together know that President Trump is going to win..
6 Nov 2024 is going to be just as much fun around here, if not more so, than 9 Nov 2016!! :D
It's gonna be a blast!!! :D
"When my mom looks for that Social Security deposit to be made in her bank account, that's how she's going to feed herself. That's how she's going to get things done. Trump doesn't give a damn if his Social Security check comes or not."
-Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz
Get that???
NO BALLZ' mom has to wait for her SSN check to be able to feed herself..
NO BALLZ is a millionaire and yet his mom was to wait for her SSN check so she can eat..
What kind of SCUMBAG useless son who is a millionaire has their mother go hungry waiting for Social Security $$$???
Tampon Tim is a scumbag luser.. Pure and simple....
Michale,
Projecting again? Walz net worth is less than a million
Vance on the other hand is a millionaire and let his mother scrape by on Medicaid. "What kind of SCUMBAG useless son who is a millionaire has their mother" on Medicaid? Especially one who pushes "christian family values"...
And of course, there is Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris' husband..
The Demon'rats new "example of masculinity".. {epic eyeroll}
This scumbag beat on his girlfriends, got married cheated on his first wife with the baby sitter and knocked up the baby sitter..
Yep.. Emhof is the PERFECT example of Demon'rat "masculinity"... Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz let's his mom starve and Harris' scumbag husband beats on women and knocks up baby sitters..
Demon'rats.. Scums of the earth....
This scumbag beat on his girlfriends, got married cheated on his first wife with the baby sitter and knocked up the baby sitter..
Now do Trump...
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is so desperate to get black Americans to vote Demon'rat…
Robert Lindsey, the owner of Sharp Skills Barber Shop, thinks his customers have some questions for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Even with this whole election right now, brothers ain’t really behind Kamala because of her track record, you know? She was a prosecutor, and that was her job, and a lot of guys are sensitive about that,” Lindsey said, not long after the National Coalition for Black Civic Participation had used his barbershop as the home base to canvass the majority-Black Overbrook neighborhood in West Philadelphia. “I would love for her to answer some questions straight up.”
Of course Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris won't answer questions straight up. Because the real actual straight answers PROVE how utterly incompetent and anti-America Headboard Harris really is..
She REFUSES to do press conferences.. Why?? What is she so afraid of??
One thing that black Americans ALL agree on.. They are not getting what they want out of the Demon'rat Party. The Demon'rat Party needs to do better.
This is FACT...
m,
i said it is donalds to lose, but i also said he is doing a great job of losing, and may even succeed in losing.
JL
Remember back in 2016, all the Demon'rats were whining and crying hysterically about the DOJ releasing investigation interference right before an election??
Oh how the Demon'rats whined and cried so hysterically.. "ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!!" they screamed..
Fast forward to 2023 and now Demon'rats LOVE election interference!! Demon'rats are BEGGING for Election interference because they KNOW they can't beat President Trump in a FAIR election..
Blatant hypocrisy... THAT is what Demon'rats are all about...
@JL..
Ya, like I said.. You said it was Donald's election..
As to him losing??? There are no real facts to support such a claim..
Booking markets show he will win.. FACT.
Wall Street is preparing for him to win. FACT.
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is being crushed in PA. FACT
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is falling further and further back in the rest of the swing states. FACT
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is STILL afraid to do a REAL press conference. FACT
President Trump killed 'em at the Al Smith Dinner.. FACT
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris was afraid to show up at the Al Smith Dinner. FACT
You are dead on ballz accurate when you say this race is President Trump's race...
Congrats on being one of the very few here in Weigantia who can actually see and concede the reality..
Everyone else is suffering the deep psychosis of PTDS and Trump/America hate...
the facts that support donald losing are his behavior. he has always said and done outrageous stuff to try to get attention, but now he has started doing stuff that is so like what biden did earlier this year, it is hard not to see the similarity. just totally incoherent. biden has always been a terrible speaker, but trump has only recently turned completely incoherent. maybe voters will notice and care, maybe not, but he is doing a great job of endangering his chances.
the facts that support donald losing are his behavior.
President Trump had the same behavior, maybe even MORE so, in 2016.. And he still won..
but now he has started doing stuff that is so like what biden did earlier this year, it is hard not to see the similarity. just totally incoherent.
First off, this is not factually accurate.. You really can't believe MSNBC or WaPoop when they make those claims..
Secondly, when Basement Biden was "doing those things" ***YA"ALL*** defended him and said it didn't mean ANYTHING...
NOW ya'all 180 change your assessment and NOW.. ALL OF THE SUDDEN... it means something..
So, where ya'all lying back then?? Or are ya'all lying now??
The facts clearly show that BOTH are factually accurate.. Ya'all are lying now and ya'all were lying back then..
but trump has only recently turned completely incoherent.
That's an opinion unsupported by any facts whatsoever..
but he is doing a great job of endangering his chances.
Again, an opinion not supported by facts.. He beat back down Token DEI Hire Harris even when she had all the BS JOY JOY crap on her side..
If he was as impaired as you claim, he never would have been able to beat her back down...
Or are you saying that Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is SOOOO BAD as a candidate that even a mentally impaired President Trump can beat her down..
Which is it??
Irregardless of all that, you said "It is President Trump's race to lose."
You can't make such a claim without conceding that it is, in fact, President Trump's race...
That's all I am saying..
First off, this is not factually accurate.. You really can't believe MSNBC or WaPoop when they make those claims..
Secondly, when Basement Biden was "doing those things" ***YA"ALL*** defended him and said it didn't mean ANYTHING...
NOW ya'all 180 change your assessment and NOW.. ALL OF THE SUDDEN... it means something..
So, where ya'all lying back then?? Or are ya'all lying now??
The facts clearly show that BOTH are factually accurate.. Ya'all are lying now and ya'all were lying back then..
For the record, I don't include you in that "ya'all".. You and Liz have always been straight up...
NOW ya'all 180 change your assessment and NOW.. ALL OF THE SUDDEN... it means something..
Uh...did you notice that Kamala replaced Biden because of his age? It does mean something. Your guy is too old and in decline and by your own argument should step down from his run. Your cry's of hypocrisy fall flat when when you are actively committing them with much greater frequency than the rest of us combined.
Ah, come on, I'm straight with you. I just disagree and usually back it up with links. Something you evidently have declined too much to handle anymore...
Donald Trump is looking quite solid in the last weeks leading up to the US Presidential elections, and Kamala Harris may be slowly dropping in terms of form, if the latest survey and poll data are to be believed. Meanwhile, expert pollster Harry Enten has now claimed that Donald Trump is now leading in some of the key areas of the US, which could prove to be extremely crucial during the US elections set for the first week of November.
Just as with Basement Biden, President Trump is winning in all the right places.. :D
During CNN's Inside Politics program, data guru Harry Enten ended up asserting the fact that Donald Trump could surprisingly end up winning a “historic” portion of black and Hispanic voters when the US goes to polling in November, something that comes as a surprise, as the black community votes majorly goes to the Democrats, across the election trends for the previous US polls.
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris and Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz are falling further and further behind... :D
It's just going to be me, Liz and JL here in Weigantia come 6 Nov 2023... :D Demon'rats are going to be hysterically crying again.. :D
Now for a change of pace, nothing to do with politics..
MOVIE REVIEW
ALIEN ROMULUS
Good movie.. I was going to watch ALIEN and ALIEN PROMETHEUS and ALIEN COVENANT just to prepare for ALIEN ROMULUS, but I was impatient, so just went in with ROMULUS..
There are definitely remnants of ALIEN and PROMETHEUS and COVENANT that were prevalent throughout ROMULUS, but I was able to easily recognize them, despite it being quite a few years since I have seen the other...
Nothing hugely complex or cerebral or earth shattering with Romulus, just a cool action flick. Better than ALIEN, but not as good as ALIENS..
Your mileage may vary...
Fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact fact.
I stopped reading the prattling repetitive bullshit after the first incorrect claim it was "fact." Same stale repetitive BS, different day, different election.
A fact is a fact. <--- FACT
An opinion is an opinion. <--- FACT
An opinion is still only an opinion unless you're a prattling repetitive dipshit hypocritical troll with his head jammed so far up 34-Time Convicted Defendant Donald's ass that he wouldn't recognize a fact if it was tattooed on Felonious Trump's trachea <--- OPINION but pretty dang close to FACT
The troll's track record on predicting elections is consistently incorrect on a regular basis despite the fact he claims he has FACTS to prove his fairly regular lousy predictions. For instance:
No matter how you attempt to spin it or gaslight it, 25% accuracy is as pathetic as claiming you won an election you knowingly lost and then trying to interfere in said presidential election by creating illegal fraudulent certificates of ascertainment of multiple states (wherein you received less votes but have electors who fraudulently illegally claim otherwise) and then personally trying to pressure your vice president into recognizing those fraudulent phony certificates so that you can remain in the office of the presidency by disenfranchising millions of voters in said multiple states via those fake documents of yours... not your first felony committed via the use of fraudulent documents for which you will be subsequently convicted on 34 felony counts because documents don't lie. <--- FACT