Election Day is still over two weeks away, so this might seem a little premature, but I thought I'd write today about the key races I will be watching as the night of November 5th unfolds. Because while the main event will be the presidential election, as we saw last time around these things can drag on for not just hours but days, and in the meantime there are plenty of other races worth paying attention to.

Since the Earth spins the way it does, the night of the election will be a staggered event, starting on the East Coast and moving slowly westward. How fast all the races will be called will depend on a number of variables -- when the polls close in each state, how fast they count votes, and how close the races are, just to name the biggest ones.

So what follows is a rough timeline of the races I will be watching, as it all unfolds on the evening of Election Day.

North Carolina (president, governor)

North Carolina, on the East Coast, will close their polls earlier than most other states. And unlike Pennsylvania and Georgia, they seem to count their votes faster, at least in general terms. So this could be the first battleground state to be "called" by the news organizations. There are two races worth watching here: president (of course) and governor.

The presidential race could wind up being a real bellwether for the other battlegrounds... or it might not. North Carolina is polling just about even, with Kamala Harris perhaps having a razor-thin majority (but not in every poll). So a win for either her or Donald Trump could set the stage for what is to follow elsewhere.

A few days ago, I heard a professional poll-watcher say something rather extraordinary -- that the likeliest result of the presidential race would be for Harris to sweep all seven battleground states, but that the second-likeliest result would be Trump sweeping all seven. In other words, it's a coin toss and nobody really knows. But if the state-level pollsters get things wrong in a big way -- in either direction -- they might have made the same errors in all the battlegrounds. If there are a bunch of hidden Trump voters in North Carolina, they may also exist elsewhere, and if Harris is really stronger than the polls are showing then that might also be reflected elsewhere as well.

If North Carolina reports its results very early, it will probably be because the winner racked up a big enough margin to make the outcome obvious. So that's what I'll be watching for, no matter which way the domino tilts. Of course, if it is super-close, we may not get North Carolina's results until far later in the night (or the next day).

The governor's race in North Carolina is also an interesting one, as the Republican is one of those ultra-MAGA candidates with quite a few skeletons in the closet. Remember the "Black Nazi" postings on the porn site? That's him. So it'll be interesting to see if the Democrat manages to defeat such an obviously-flawed candidate.

Florida (Senate, abortion rights)

At one point, Senator Rick Scott was looking vulnerable, but Democrats haven't really invested a whole lot of money into this race (and Florida campaigns are costly), so I am expecting to hear that Scott easily wins re-election fairly early in the evening.

Florida also has an abortion rights measure on the ballot, but even if it gets a majority of the votes it may not pass. Florida set the bar at 60 percent for such measures, and while it seems certain that over 50 percent of Floridians are going to vote to reinstitute abortion rights in the state, it is not certain that they will hit 60 percent. If the measure does pass, it is going to cause some very hard reassessments in the Republican Party about the electoral damage the issue is doing to them, that's for sure. If it fails to get 60 percent, it probably won't slow down the movement for abortion rights much but it might just convince other Republican states to also raise the bar that high for allowing such measures to pass.

New York (House)

New York could indicate early on in the night how good the chances will be of Democrats winning back control of the House of Representatives. Back in 2022, there was supposed to be a "red wave" propelling Republicans to a landslide victory -- but it didn't really materialize. Not in most states, at least. But Republicans actually did pretty well in both New York and California, picking up swing districts that shocked the Democrats. This year will be a referendum on how the voters think they have done. By winning just a few suburban districts in New York and a few more-rural districts in California, Democrats could win back the speaker's gavel, so it'll be interesting to see if this happens, starting in New York.

Maryland (Senate)

Larry Hogan, the well-loved former Republican governor of this very blue state, might have won in a normal year (and for a while the prospect was worrying Democrats), but at this point it looks like the state's voters were happy enough with him in the governor's office but are also not ready to hand one of their Senate seats to the Republican Party.

Maine (president in the "red dot" district)

Maine and Nebraska are the two states who don't award their Electoral College votes as a bloc, so while Maine is almost certainly going to go for Harris as a whole, one of their congressional districts might wind up in Donald Trump's column. If Harris wins the "red dot" district instead, it might mean the Nebraska "blue dot" district isn't going to be the deciding factor in the Electoral College. But for her to do so would be a big accomplishment, so I'll be watching to see whether she manages this upset or not.

Georgia and Pennsylvania (president)

As we saw last time around, we may not get the results for either of these states on Election Night. Pennsylvania, in particular, could be the biggest prize of the entire election. Without the Keystone State (which may live up to it's nickname this year, obviously), it would be very hard for either candidate to put together a winning margin. So let's hope it doesn't take days and days until the results are known (it is worth mentioning that Pennsylvania's slow pace is the direct result of Republicans in the state legislature refusing to allow elections officials to count any votes before the polls close, which is incredibly inefficient and wastes a lot of time).

Georgia will likely not have to deal with all the last-minute new election rules the Republican state board tried to impose, which were all designed to throw sand in the gears of counting and certifying the results. But this doesn't mean everything is going to go perfectly smoothly there, so there could be any number of things that gum up the works on Election Night.

Ohio (Senate)

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown might emerge victorious once again, showing his staying power in what has become a very red state. I'm not even going to mention West Virginia's Senate race individually, since everyone knows this will be a Republican pickup (after the retirement of Joe Manchin). But Ohio was going to be a big battle as well, although the polls seem pretty good for Brown at this point, so Democrats will hopefully dodge this particular bullet.

Michigan and Wisconsin (president and Senate)

The Michigan Senate race might also be close, but in both Michigan and Wisconsin the Democrats are likely to prevail. However, these two states could be the key to the entire presidential race for Harris. If Harris manages to pick up both of them and Pennsylvania, she is likely to win the White House. If Harris loses either Michigan or Wisconsin, she'll have to win Pennsylvania and pick up at least one or more other battleground states. If the last time around was any indication, though, we might know the results in these two states before Pennsylvania is called.

Texas (Senate)

Will Ted Cruz go down? Will Texas finally turn at least a little blue? That's the eternal Democratic dream, and if it becomes reality with a Democratic upset this year it could swing the entire Senate. We shall see... we shall see....

Nebraska (president in the "blue dot" district, Senate, abortion)

Nebraska is the other side of the coin from Maine, as they are a very red state with one possible "blue dot" district. If Trump wins the Maine "red dot" and wins all the battleground states except Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then the Nebraska "blue dot" might be the whole ballgame for either side.

Strangely enough, there's a Senate race here that could see the Republicans losing not just one seat but any chance to regain control of the whole chamber. The incumbent Republican, Deb Fischer, is running neck-and-neck with an Independent challenger, while the Democrats didn't put anybody up to give that challenger a clear shot. If there is an upset here, both parties will be wooing the Independent to caucus with them, but Democrats have a better shot of doing so.

There are two competing abortion measures on the ballot in Nebraska as well, one for and one against abortion rights. The one which gains the most votes will negate the other one, even if both win. This will be the first time duelling measures are on the same ballot, so the results will be interesting.

Montana (Senate)

Democrats should prepare for bad news here, as Jon Tester seems like he's not going to get re-elected to one more term. If there are no upsets elsewhere (in Texas, Florida, Maryland, Nebraska, or anywhere else) then Tester's loss might also mean loss of control of the Senate for Democrats. Tester could still pull out a miracle win here, but as I said, Democrats shouldn't count on it.

Arizona and Nevada (president, Senate, abortion)

By the time Arizona and Nevada close their polls for the evening, the race might already be decided. But that would mean early calls for most of the other battleground states, which may not happen on such a timely basis. If we're all waiting for the last five or ten percent of the votes to be counted in Pennsylvania and other more-eastern states, then Arizona and Nevada will loom much more important on all our radars.

Whichever way the states go for president, at this point they seem fairly safe for the two Democrats running for Senate here. The Republicans nominated candidates which haven't done a great job of campaigning or are just too MAGA to win. So I'm hoping for good news from both Senate races.

Both states also have abortion ballot measures as well, and both seem on their way to passing fairly easily.

California (House)

California's Senate race is a foregone conclusion, which will bring heartburn to Republicans everywhere, since Adam Schiff will be our next senator. But as with New York, there are a handful of House districts here that may actually flip control of the chamber. If that control hasn't been decided by the time California returns come in then no matter which party wins control it's going to be with a very small margin (again). If control has already been decided, then California's races will just mean a bigger or smaller majority one way or the other.

Conclusion (such as it is)

These aren't the only big and important races of 2024, I should point out. For instance, abortion rights will be on the ballot in ten states. And there will be other interesting races in both houses of Congress and even in statehouses across the country. But these are the ones I will be watching most closely on Election Night, in the rough order that they will happen.

Besides, we may all need something else to talk about while we wait for all the battleground states to count their last remaining votes. Remember last time around? It took all week... hopefully that won't happen again, but it does remain a possibility.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant