Election Week?
Two weeks from tomorrow is Election Day. To be followed by Election Night, when we all gather 'round our screens and watch the returns come in and wait for the experts to call each of the states for one candidate or the other. But remember last time? This time might turn out the same -- instead of just one night of stress, we may all have to live through "Election Week," as the final votes are counted.
Four years ago, I heard a friend-of-a-friend anecdote about a small child who complained that Mommy and Daddy were hogging the television in order to endlessly watch the most boring show imaginable -- which the kid called: "The Map Show." All I'm saying is we might be in for season two of The Map Show this time around.
What with focusing on the actual election, what many are losing sight of (and I definitely include myself in that) is that Election Day isn't going to be the end of the stress, it could easily become just the beginning of a whole new phase of stress. That could all kick off with us all waiting on a handful of states to finish counting every single vote. Pennsylvania certainly springs to mind, as does Arizona and Georgia. Wisconsin and Michigan could also take a while, who knows?
This was all brought back to me by reading an interesting interview Politico did with Arnon Mishkin, the "chief nerd" (he accept this label in the interview) of the Decision Desk at Fox News. He is not an actual Fox employee, but rather a consultant who independently makes the calls for each state on Election Night. He's the guy who upset so many Fox viewers last time by (correctly) calling Arizona early for Joe Biden. He's also the guy who (much earlier, in 2012) had to school Karl Rove (who was in the midst of losing his marbles, on air) on why he had (rightly) called Ohio for Barack Obama. So he's used to operating under pressure, obviously.
But one key question stood out in the interview:
[Q:] When do you think you're going to be able to call this election? Do you think it's going to be the night of? A week later? Possibly longer? The race seems so close.
[ARNON MISHKIN:] The race seems very, very close. It is dependent on a number of states, like Pennsylvania, that we believe are going to be reporting in a pattern similar to the way they have reported in the past. So I'd say, the over/under is Saturday. Which was when the call was made last time. Which is when Pennsylvania is likely to come in.
I think we have to accept the reality that we don't really know how close this election is going to be. I'm pretty sure it's going to be close. I see some polls that say, "Actually, it ain't going to be close. It's going to be one way or the other." There's some reporting that Trump is sort of gaining. Some of the polls have showed he's gaining. There's another sense I have that actually he may be declining. I think the real issue is what happens to [Donald] Trump. I've always thought this about this election: It's less about who's running against him than it's about Trump.
Let that sink in for a moment: Saturday.
Of course, like all predictions, that one might turn out to be wrong. We could know very early in the evening of Election Night who is going to win. If either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump easily wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, then most likely we're all going to have an early night of it. If, however, key states stay stubbornly colorless on all the networks' maps, then it could easily be days before we all know. And with the polling so close, at this point that looks more like the plausible outcome.
Whenever the results are fully known, that still might not be the end of the cycle. If Donald Trump loses, it definitely won't be. If Kamala Harris loses by a whisker, she may very well challenge the results in the states that are closest. The difference between the two is that we know that Harris will do so through the legal system, the way candidates are supposed to. If she still loses after recounts happen and after losing court challenges, then she will concede the election and Donald Trump will peacefully be sworn in as president on January 20th of next year.
If Trump loses, however, all bets are off. Anything could happen. This will begin the same way -- with official recounts and court challenges. Team Trump learned a few lessons from the last time they tried this, so there could be an absolute flood of court cases challenging results, all over the map. What's more concerning is the security of any official recounts. Will crowds of Trump followers surround the buildings where such recounts are happening? They certainly showed up at a few last time. They may be a lot angrier this time around, should this situation repeat.
Trump, of course, will be egging his supporters on from the sidelines. He will not be calling for calm, to put this another way. He will be frothing at the mouth insisting that the election was once again "rigged" or "stolen" from him. That all seems guaranteed.
How long could this phase go on? Well, last time around... it's still going on. Trump continues to insist that his Big Lie is true -- that somehow, in some nefarious manner (of which he has found no proof whatsoever), a cabal of Democrats stole the election right out from under his nose. He's never conceded the 2020 election, and he has forced all his loyal sycophants in the Republican Party to at least give lip service to his Big Lie. If Trump loses again, he will likely go to his grave insisting that both elections were stolen from him. For Trump, there will be no end to the sore-loser phase.
How soon will it be before the rest of us can move on? That is unknown. Even saying "by Saturday" is far too optimistic (unless, of course, Trump wins). Trump will resist tooth and nail all the mechanisms which actually elect a United States president, although this time around he will not be in power. He will not have his own hand-picked attorney general to order around. He will not have a compliant Justice Department. He will not be able to pick up the phone and give orders to the military. And this time around, the Capitol will be an absolute fortress by January 6th. So it's doubtful we'll see an exact replay of what happened after the 2020 election, because with Trump out of office some parts of it will be absolutely impossible.
But no matter what happens, the likelihood of us all going to bed on Election Night knowing who won cannot be considered to be all that high. Unless the polling is incredibly off (which could indeed be the case), it's going to be very close in a number of the battleground states. Some of these states are more efficient at counting votes than others. So all I am saying is we should all be prepared to go to bed on Election Night still in a state of uncertainty. because The Map Show might get blockbuster ratings all week long, once again.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
i think this is what i most mean when i say it's trump's to lose. donald will either win it or lose it, but not much that anyone else does is likely to make much of an impact.
And now we have Bashi Troll complaining that I never post the facts to support my comments..
Which is ironic, because back when I *DID* post the facts that supported my claims, trolls like Bashi and people like dsdw whined and complained that I was posting too many facts...
Which simply proves my point that Troll Weigantians just want to whine and complain and never really have the facts to support their claims.
A perfect example of this is when Bashi Troll claimed that when President Trump utterly DESTROYED Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris with President Trump's stint at a McDonalds, Bashi Troll said that the McDonalds was actually closed and it was all staged with actors..
Woman served by Trump at McDonald's drive-thru reveals details behind viral exchange with former president
'Mr. President, please don't let the U.S. become my native Brazil,' she said
A Pennsylvania mom who was served by former President Trump at McDonald's discussed the one request she asked of the former president when he surprised her at the drive-thru window on Sunday.
Trump cooked and served french fries to customers at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania, while accusing his 2024 opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, of lying about once working at the fast food restaurant.
TRUMP MAKES FRIES AT PENNSYLVANIA MCDONALDS: ‘I’VE NOW WORKED FOR 15 MINUTES MORE THAN KAMALA'
A clip of Nayara Andrejczyk pulling up to the drive-through window where Trump waited with her order went viral, with online users highlighting a remark she made to the former president during their brief interaction.
Of course, Bashi Troll was lying pathetically and never even offered a single FACT to back up his BS claims that the McDonalds was closed and the event was staged..
As per my norm, I *ALWAYS* have the facts on my side.. As per the Weigantian Trolls norm, they NEVER have any facts..
JL,
i think this is what i most mean when i say it's trump's to lose. donald will either win it or lose it, but not much that anyone else does is likely to make much of an impact.
Yes, we know.. You have said it countless times..
This is President Trump's race..
We are in complete agreement.. :D
Cad, Cad, Cad... Still trying to "ignore" me, huh?
And every day, you keep proving your prison bona fides.
But let’s focus on what you can’t avoid, what you can’t deny: you're a scumbag, dishonorably discharged, and a druggie loser. The facts hurts, don't they?
There’s one thing you'll never hear, something that no one will ever say to you: "Thank you for your service." You’ll never hear those words because you don’t deserve them. You can’t claim to be a veteran. People say it to me all the time when they find out I’ve served in both the U.S. Army and the U.S. Air Force. My response? Always the same: "It was my honor to serve."
That’s something you’ll never understand. You can’t say it was your honor to serve because you had no honor when you served. Your legacy is one of drug use, and that’s all anyone will remember about you. You committed the worst crime an honorable soldier can commit—by using drugs, you put the lives of your fellow soldiers at risk. All because you were weak and selfish. You sacrificed their safety for your addiction, proving you never had an ounce of honor to begin with.
Trump’s genius McDonald’s stunt will fry Kamala at the ballot box
“Even if you flippin’ fries at McDonald’s,” Oprah Winfrey once said, “if you are excellent, everybody wants to be in your line.”
I thought of this quote when Donald Trump turned up yesterday at a McDonald’s restaurant in suburban Philadelphia to work a shift making French fries, then handing bags of food to drive-through customers.
As political stunts go, this might have been the best I’ve ever seen, because it served two very powerful purposes in the presidential race.
First, it reminded voters that his rival, Kamala Harris, has repeatedly boasted about having a summer job at McDonald’s to make her sound more relatable to her fellow Americans, but to date, not a single person has been able to verify this.
This is quite extraordinary given how specific she has been, with her campaign team stating that she worked at McDonald’s on Central Avenue in Alameda, Calif., in 1983 after her freshman year at Howard University, working on the cash register, french fries station and ice cream machine.
But then, she didn’t mention it in her memoir, nor does it appear on the 1987 résumé she submitted when applying for a position at the Alameda County District Attorney’s Office despite listing her other work experiences.
It was like it never happened at all!
Even more intriguingly, the New York Times reported on Sunday: “In subsequent years, Ms. Harris talked so little about her long-ago job at McDonald’s that even some of her friends and close aides did not know she had worked there.”
Hmmm.
Forgive me, but I smell the same gigantic, disingenuous rat that Trump’s been smelling about Kamala’s supposed McDonald’s career move.
And it matters because it goes right to the heart of the Democratic candidate’s persistent pitch that she is the truth antidote to fork-tongued Trump.
As usual, the FACTS prove Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris is a liar.. Pure and simple..
And President Trump??
He's going to win the election in a landslide!!! :D
Team Trump learned a few lessons from the last time they tried this, so there could be an absolute flood of court cases challenging results, all over the map.
Republicans have already filed hundreds of lawsuits in multiple states attempting to invalidate ballots. They're losing the vast majority of them. The RNC recently lost two more cases wherein they are attempting to block overseas voters North Carolina and Michigan from casting a ballot.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/
@m,
i know you have fun with it, but you know we're not in agreement. you think you've got it locked up; i think you could just as easily lose or win, depending.
JL
nypoet22
1
i think this is what i most mean when i say it's trump's to lose. donald will either win it or lose it, but not much that anyone else does is likely to make much of an impact.
The way I figure it, the election is a referendum on Trump... right up until that first debate when (cut to the chase) the election took a complete 180 wherein Democrats made some necessary adjustments, and the election is (still) a referendum on Trump, who is definitely the old man now.
As long as the election remains a referendum on Trump, he has a ceiling in the 46% range and always has.
Michale,
Ah, no, you post unattributed mostly opinion pieces from conservative rags (like the two above). Remind me again how much FOX news had to pay out for lying again? And the NY Post, a tabloid? Please... We all have seen the sign posted to the door of the McDonald's that it was closed for the day. Why do you need to hide behind the long excerpts from these rags by not linking to where you got them? Pre-Trump you could handle such a simple endeavor. It's an easy search to figure out where the original article came from. It's almost like you are trying to blow smoke up our asses. OK you can strike the almost...
And now we have Bashi Troll complaining that I never post the facts to support my comments..
Nah. What we have, as per his regular modus operandi, is the Whining Snowflake Troll Michale putting words like "never" in a commenter's mouth that they didn't say and then whining incessantly as if he's competing for the title of "World's Bigliest Fabricating Whining Poltroon," for which he'll come up short as long as Donald Trump continues with his invented bloviating bullshit.
MtnCaddy
WOW! I see congratulations are definitely in order. I mean, although I didn't read the troll's shit post above -- you've seen a few, you've seen them all -- when you write a one-sentence comment that receives a multi-paragraph response, you know for a fact you are WINNING!
Congratulations. You are really getting under the troll's gossamer thin skin to the point where we could make an argument that he was the "World's Largest Poltroon," but then that wouldn't be fair to Donald Trump.
Michale,
So you are working at an E911 call center/ dispatch center these days? Crazy times! I’m surprised they would hire someone who dishonestly claimed to have already worked in law enforcement for over two decades. Or hire someone who threatened to file a false complaint against a police officer you had never met and who lived on the other side of the country simply because his spouse had angered you by pointing out your history of lies on here? You did make them aware of your history of deceitfulness on here, right? Of course you did! I cannot imagine them being too happy if you chose not to make them aware of your online comments that do not match what you told them about yourself. But you were honest with them, I am sure! Funny how things you say can come back to bite you in the ass, huh?
Why thanks, Kick. I can really feel the power!
Let’s not forget that (1) Trump will not do better against Kamala than he did against Joe four years ago — really, which voting block has he shored up in these four years? Black men? The GOP is counting on black men?
And (2) the Supremes have given Joe immunity. The GOP is counting on Joe to not cut Trump’s throat before Trump can cut his throat?
ListenWhenYouHear
12
I know, right, Russ!?
I’m surprised they would hire someone who dishonestly claimed to have already worked in law enforcement for over two decades.
Remember that time his words actually exposed him, and then he posted he never claimed to be a cop? As if!
Or hire someone who threatened to file a false complaint against a police officer you had never met and who lived on the other side of the country simply because his spouse had angered you by pointing out your history of lies on here?
Jussie Smollett of Weigantia!? I remember it well, don't you, Russ? It's just one of the hardships of being me and you and having the ability to recall actual events and possessing actual brain cells that work like they're designed to.
You did make them aware of your history of deceitfulness on here, right? Of course you did!
And you just know he absolutely disclosed to them the multiple times he encouraged a commenter he had never met to kill themselves, don't you, Russ?
I cannot imagine them being too happy if you chose not to make them aware of your online comments that do not match what you told them about yourself. But you were honest with them, I am sure!
You just know the troll divulged his criminal record to them like he did on this blog, right? And you just know he informed him of his numerous instances of being named Defendant, don't you?
Funny how things you say can come back to bite you in the ass, huh?
So funny, I can't stop laughing, can you, Russ!? You know what would really be side-splitting hysterical?
I know you well enough to know that you know exactly what I'm thinking, and I feel quite certain you're thinking it too. GMTA.
Love you, Russ! :)
MtnCaddy
13
Why thanks, Kick. I can really feel the power!
You should definitely feel the power. I went back and counted your less than 10-word sentence that generated all those paragraphs! Very nice work.
Let’s not forget that (1) Trump will not do better against Kamala than he did against Joe four years ago — really, which voting block has he shored up in these four years? Black men? The GOP is counting on black men?
If I were the GOP, I'd definitely be more concerned with all those women who would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump and those Republicans who will defect -- even if only for one election -- and vote for the Democratic ticket to save what remains of their Party.
And (2) the Supremes have given Joe immunity. The GOP is counting on Joe to not cut Trump’s throat before Trump can cut his throat?
I sincerely hope you are kidding about that. My wish for Trump is to live a long life answering for his crimes in courtrooms all across America for the aiding and abetting in conspiracy to keep himself in power via lies that led directly to the infliction of permanent injuries to multiple police officers and for the many others that he's caused damage via his defamation and pathological lying.
The Georgia Supreme Court kicks to the curb the Trumplican's pathetic attempt to make new rules to suit himself. Poor Donald loses in court again: https://tinyurl.com/yca4rhy9
— when you write a one-sentence comment that receives a multi-paragraph response, you know for a fact you are WINNING!
It was a yuge sentence! I have the best sentences!
Speaking of sentence “, I wish DonOLD great longevity. Prison for the rest of a long life.