Electoral Math -- Tight Race Gets Even Tighter
Last week, we called the presidential race "as close as things can get." This week we have to up that to "even closer than close," we suppose. As things stand, there are two states perfectly tied in the polls, which leaves neither candidate with enough to win the Electoral College outright without adding at least one of them.
At this point, it's hard to say if anything that is happening in the polls is truly all that meaningful. All of the changes that have been happening have been states wobbling around on razors' edges, between favoring one candidate by a point or two to being perfectly tied to favoring the other by a point or two. All seven of the battleground states are essentially doing this, so the shifts are really just the margin of error between the different pollsters, for the most part. Neither candidate has managed to secure a definitive edge in any of them. No clear trends have appeared anywhere.
With two weeks to go before Election Day, it's anyone's guess what is going to happen. Things could go either way. Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could sweep all (or almost all) of the battleground states, or they could divvy them up between them. The result in the Electoral College might wind up being one of the closest elections in American history, or one candidate could wind up with over 300 votes. It's really anyone's guess.
Let's take a look at this week's charts, although I will admit that they really don't tell us much, other than "it's really close."
The first chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.
Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. But as mentioned, the white areas show states that are Tied, and (just like last week) this week that's where the action was.
[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]
Early in the week two big states flipped, but since they're equal in Electoral Votes (EV), there was no change in the chart. On the same day that Georgia shifted from Harris to Trump, North Carolina shifted from Trump to Harris. Both have 16 EV, so they cancelled each other out. The next day, however, North Carolina moved from Harris to being perfectly Tied, which did change the chart a bit, as Harris dropped below the 270 EV winning-margin line.
There was other activity that day as well. Nevada shifted from Trump to Harris, but Trump picked up Wisconsin (which had previously been Tied). Michigan shifted from Harris to being Tied as well, so the net change benefited Trump more than Harris. Things stayed the same up until today's numbers were posted, when Wisconsin shifted from Trump to Harris.
For the second week in a row, "Tied" really wound up the winner of the week. Kamala Harris started off with 276 EV, then dropped down to 251 EV with the loss of Michigan and North Carolina to Tied (which was somewhat offset by Nevada moving from Tied to Harris). Harris improved today by moving Wisconsin back to her column, and she wound up the week with 261 EV (which is 9 EV short of the goal). This meant a net loss of 15 EV for the week for Harris.
Donald Trump began the week with 252 EV. He then rose, with the addition of Wisconsin (which was offset by the loss of Nevada to Harris), to 256 EV. But with the loss of Wisconsin to Harris today, he dropped back down to 246 EV, a net loss of 6 EV for the week.
While both candidates lost ground, the Tied category rose from 10 EV at the start (Wisconsin) to 31 EV for the rest of the week (Michigan and North Carolina).
Percentage-wise, both candidates lost ground this week. Harris began with 51 percent of the available EV, but had dropped down to 48.5 percent by the end of the week. Trump began with 47 percent, but wound up just below 46 percent at the end.
Which brings us to the individual candidates' charts, starting with Trump.
As always, states are divided into three categories, depending on the state's polling margin. A lead of less than 5 points goes into the "Barely" column. A lead of 5 to 10 points means "Weak," and a lead of over 10 points is considered "Strong."
Not a whole lot of movement in Trump's chart this week, as you can see. There was a shuffling that happened early, but it left the charts in perfect balance. Trump lost North Carolina, which had been Barely Trump, to Harris -- but on the same day he flipped Georgia from Harris to Barely Trump. Since both states have 16 EV, this didn't even cause a blip in the charts.
The next day, two more states flipped. Nevada went from Barely Trump to Harris while Wisconsin went from Tied to Barely Trump. Since Wisconsin has 10 EV to Nevada's 6 EV, this meant a 4 EV gain for Trump. However, today Wisconsin flipped back to Harris, leaving Trump down a net 6 EV for the week.
Trump did get some good news lower in the chart, as today he got another good poll out of Florida, which moved the state from Weak Trump to Strong Trump. Since Florida has a whopping 30 EV, this caused a very noticeable blip in Trump's Strong numbers.
Trump started off the week with 252 EV total. When Nevada and Wisconsin moved, he rose to 256 EV, but then fell back to 246 EV at the end of the week. This leaves him 24 EV short of the winning number.
Trump improved today from 111 EV in the Strong category to 141 EV, which was offset by his Weak numbers going from 102 EV down to 72 EV. His Barely numbers moved from 39 EV up to 43 EV, before falling back to 33 EV at the end.
Trump did firm up his Florida support, but his "Strong plus Weak" line didn't budge at all -- it stayed at 213 EV all week long.
Kamala Harris also had a rather mixed week:
As noted, early on in the week Harris and Trump swapped Georgia and North Carolina. However, while Trump held onto Georgia for the rest of the week, Harris saw North Carolina move from Barely Harris to Tied the next day. Harris also lost Michigan from Barely Harris to Tied on the same day, but she did move Nevada from Trump's column to Barely Harris on the same day as well.
This all meant a drop of 25 EV for Harris, as she lost North Carolina (16 EV) and Michigan (15 EV) while adding Nevada (6 EV). She started the week with her overall total just above the magic number at 276 EV, but then fell back to 251 EV as a result.
Wisconsin showed how statistically insignificant all of this movement truly is, though, as it moved from Tied to Barely Trump and then wound up in Barely Harris today. With the addition of Wisconsin's 10 EV, Harris closed the week out with 261 EV, which is 9 EV away from the winning number.
As you can see in the graph, the only movement for Harris was in the Barely category. Her Strong numbers stayed exactly the same at 189 EV and her Weak numbers also didn't budge, remaining at 37 EV all week long. Obviously, this meant her "Strong plus Weak" number stayed the same, at 226 EV.
Harris started out the week with 50 EV in Barely, but then the net loss of 25 EV cut it in half. This improved today with Wisconsin's 10 EV bringing the total for Harris in Barely to 35 EV.
My Picks
At this point, all anyone's got to go on, really, is their gut feelings. I decided to get a little bolder with some of the marginal states this week, but this is not based in any strong data or anything, more just looking at how each state has been polling throughout the entire election cycle (the part after Harris took over from Joe Biden, to be clear).
There are full listings of all the data in each category at the end of this column, as always, complete with the EV total for each individual state.
All of my picks are divided into "Safe," "Probable," and "Leaning" for each candidate, with a final "Too Close To Call" category at the end.
Likely States -- Harris
Safe Harris (20 states, 226 EV)
No changes this week. All the Safe Harris states stayed safe for her.
Probable Harris (0 states, 0 EV)
No change.
Likely States -- Trump
Safe Trump (22 states, 173 EV)
I decided to move two states up to Safe Trump this week, since neither one seems likely to waver in their support. Florida, as mentioned, had a poll out with Trump beating Harris by 10 points, and the polling from Ohio has been almost as good for him, so I moved both states up.
Probable Trump (2 states, 46 EV)
Trump lost two states from Probable this week, but it was good news for him as both of them (Florida, Ohio) moved up to Safe. For now, though, I am going to leave Iowa and Texas as merely Probable Trump -- although I will admit that it would be shocking to see either one of these post a close result on Election Day (at least in the presidential contest).
Tossup States
Lean Harris (3 states, 40 EV)
This is where my gut feelings got a bit more creative this week. Even though Michigan moved into the "Tied" column in the polling, I still feel that Harris has an edge here. She's led in most of the polling over the past few months and while the media makes much of the Arab-American population here, I think in the end Harris will win the state. Nevada is similar -- Harris has led almost all of the polls over the past two months, although the state is notoriously hard to poll. And I just have a good feeling about Pennsylvania, although this might be merely exuberant optimism, I will admit. But for now, I am sticking all three states in the Lean Harris category.
Lean Trump (1 state, 11 EV)
Earlier in the cycle, it seemed Arizona might present a pickup opportunity for Harris, especially since they're probably going to elect a Democratic senator and pass an abortion-rights referendum. But of late, Trump has seemed to built up a slight edge here, so I had to move the state up from Too Close To Call and put it into Lean Trump.
Too Close To Call (3 states, 42 EV)
This leaves only three states as Too Close To Call: Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. If I had to guess, I would say that Georgia will go for Trump while Wisconsin goes for Harris, and I certainly hope Harris can pick up North Carolina, but it wouldn't surprise me if Trump edged it out. For now, though, all three states have to be seen as Too Close To Call.
Final Tally
We are now two weeks out from Election Day. What this means is that an October surprise may be just around the corner. Or maybe not -- we don't get one every single presidential election, after all. What is going to determine the result of this election is last-minute movement of undecided voters. Perhaps they'll drift towards Trump, perhaps they'll decide to go with Harris -- or perhaps they'll all just stay home and not vote. These last-minute trends are usually impossible for the pollsters to pick up -- they often happen only a few days before the actual election -- so usually they are only identified after the results are in.
The candidates' totals, such as they are, show that uncertainty abounds (even when adding in gut feelings). Kamala Harris stayed with exactly the same 20 states in the Safe and Probable categories, for a total of 226 EV. Donald Trump shifted two states from Probable to Safe, but this didn't change his overall total in both categories at all -- he still has 24 states for a total of 219 EV. Which is about as close as can be imagined, really, with only 7 EV separating the two.
Moving a few states up from Too Close To Call has changed the overall numbers a bit, but again none of it even approaches certainty. Harris has three states with a combined 40 EV in her Lean column, and Trump with one state with only 11 EV in Lean. All of these decisions were fairly arbitrary, though, with a very low degree of confidence.
Adding it all together (Safe, Probable and Lean), Harris would have 266 EV if all my predictions prove to be correct. This means she could pick up any one remaining Too Close To Call state and win the race. Trump, on the other hand, has only 230 EV. This means he has to sweep all of the Too Close To Call states to win the big prize -- and then only just (there are only 42 EV in the category this week).
Once again, we have to conclude by throwing our hands up in the air and uttering with frustration: "It's anybody's guess!" Anything could happen. There are no real trends. Neither candidate has pulled away. It is neck-and-neck not only nationally but in each and every one of the battleground states. The race may be won by inches, no matter who emerges the victor.
[Full Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name -- and please note a lot of these have changed since 2020, due to the reallocation of House seats after the Census. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)
Kamala Harris Likely Easy Wins -- 20 States -- 226 Electoral Votes:
Safe States -- 20 States -- 226 Electoral Votes
California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawai'i (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)
Probable States -- 0 States -- 0 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump Likely Easy Wins -- 24 States -- 219 Electoral Votes:
Safe States -- 22 States -- 173 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (30), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
Probable States -- 2 States -- 46 Electoral Votes
Iowa (6), Texas (40)
Tossup States -- 7 States -- 93 Electoral Votes:
Tossup States Leaning Harris -- 3 States -- 40 Electoral Votes
Michigan (15), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (19)
Tossup States Leaning Trump -- 1 State -- 11 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11)
Too Close To Call -- 3 States -- 42 Electoral Votes
Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Wisconsin (10)
Polling data gaps:
[Note: during the primaries, Zogby conducted a poll in every state on April 21 (with the sole exception of Washington D.C., which has had no polling at all this cycle). But I thought it'd be more useful to keep track here of which states have not been polled since Joe Biden dropped out of the race.]
New polling data -- 1 State
(States polled with Harris for the first time since our previous column, with the dates of the new poll in parenthesis.)
Oregon (10/17)
No polling data with Harris -- 12 States
(States which have not been polled since July 21st, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)
Alabama (4/21), Hawai'i (4/21), Idaho (4/21), Kansas (4/21), Kentucky (4/21), Louisiana (4/26), Mississippi (4/21), New Jersey (4/21), North Dakota (4/21), South Dakota (5/13), Washington D.C. (--), Wyoming (4/21)
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
This whole column is based on a heavily Republican leaning batch of polls released to goose the predictions and hopefully discourage blue voters. They did likewise right before the red tsunami of 2022, remember?
Trump is going to get creamed. Almost half the country would crawl through broken glass to vote against the Comrade Trump and his GQP shit show.
Polls don’t vote.
ONE measly comment!!?? :eyeroll:
And from the ignorant dishonorably discharged druggie inmate to boot..
How far Weigantia has fallen... :eyeroll:
JL,
i know you have fun with it, but you know we're not in agreement.
I always have fun when we are in complete agreement..
And we ARE in complete agreement here insofar as the status of the race..
We BOTH agree that this is President Trump's race....
Our ONLY point of contention is that you think President can still lose and I know for a fact that it's not possible..
The ONLY way President Trump will lose is if Demon'rats succeed in assassinating President Trump. And, even though that would be very very bad for America, it also will mean that Demon'rats will lose even more...
you think you've got it locked up;
Here. Let me fix that for you..
"You know you've got it locked up."
Yer welcome.
i think you could just as easily lose or win, depending.
I know you think that.. I also know you are very very wrong..
There is only one way President Trump loses.. And if he does, Demon'rats will lose SOOOO much more..
Love you, Russ! :)
"aaaawwwww geeze….."
-nypoet22
:D
All this EV stuff is really REALLY fascinating...
But it's all meaningless...
President Trump is beating Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris just as he was beating Basement Biden...
What CW Doesn't mention in his long scribe is that President Trump's momentum is going UP and Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris' momentum is going down..
And THAT's the headline here...
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris' 2024 campaign is simply a duplicate of her 2019 campaign.. A flash in the pan, a brief flare of light and then, once the American people really saw what she is all about, they dumped her like the cheap hooker she is..
Who could have POSSIBLY predicted this would be the way her 2024 campaign went...???
Oh... Wait.. :D
“Everyone keeps saying, ‘It’s close.’ Yes, it’s close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that. Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No.”
-Democrat Strategist
Democrats are increasingly panicked.. They are privately expressing worry that battleground polling appears to be moving in Trump’s direction over the last two weeks.
Cracks in the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are starting to show, with Senate incumbents in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin now in toss-up races, according to the Cook Political Report.
The three northern states generally move in the same direction in the presidential race, but Harris has been losing ground to Trump in polls, particularly in Wisconsin. In Michigan, doubts among Arab American voters are worrying Democrats.
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris wanted this to be a "vibe" election..
Now the vibes ain't so good for Headboard.. :D
“It’s too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada.”
Democrat Journalist Jon Ralston
Anyone who thinks Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris can win is simply ignoring all the inconvenient facts.. :D
OK Liz and JL.. Here is a golden opportunity for you...
What would you like to see (and not see) from me in the aftermath of President Trump's decisively and overwhelming victory??
Keep in mind that I will have earned a certain amount of "Ooooraaaa!!!!"s, some spiking of the footballs and a sincere amount of "HA!!! Told ya so!!!!"s..
But beyond what's earned, what would ya'all like to see and not see happen??
Limited time offer.. Get it while it's hot... :D
And it looks like Democrat leaders in Michigan are ditching Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris.. :D
Traditionally Dem leaders in key Michigan voting bloc ditch Harris, endorse Trump
Some Arab leaders in southeast Michigan believe former President Trump will bring peace to the Middle East
Some Arab leaders in southeast Michigan have heard enough from Vice President Kamala Harris and are now encouraging their community to throw their support behind former President Trump.
"Just look where we’re at right now and look where we were before," Dearborn Heights Mayor Bill Bazzi told reporters during an online call Monday.
Bazzi’s comments represent a growing sentiment among some Arab leaders in Michigan, where there has been increasingly negative sentiment around the Biden administration’s handling of the conflicts in the Middle East.
In Dearborn, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit with the largest per capita Muslim population in the United States, a movement bubbled up earlier this year to "Abandon Biden" during the state’s Democratic primary. While President Biden was still able to secure the nomination, leaders of the campaign against him hailed its success, noting that over 100,000 people failed to support the president and arguing they would continue to use their influence as the general election drew near.
EVERYONE is distancing their selves from Headboard Harris...
There is simply NO GOOD NEWS for Demon'rats.. Except for all the lies coming out of MSNBC, WaPoop and Drudge...
Amazing that people still buy into that garbage...
Meh, according to the Harry's Bar straw poll in Paris it's a close race but Harris is ahead. They have a generally better success rate of predicting elections than most these outlets and have been doing so for a hundred years...
The Anatomy of a PTDS infused lie..
The Atlantic report alleging Trump disparaged slain Army private blasted by family, others: 'Absolutely false'
Jeffrey Goldberg's report was 'exploiting my sister’s death for politics,' Mayra Guillén said
The Atlantic is facing intense scrutiny over a report alleging former President Trump disparaged a slain Mexican-American Army private while he was in office, with some involved with the story declaring it "false" and a "hit piece."
Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, began a lengthy report published Tuesday about Trump's interaction with the family of 20-year-old Vanessa Guillén, the daughter of Mexican immigrants who was murdered in April 2020 by a fellow soldier at Fort Hood.
After her remains were discovered two months later, Trump consoled Guillén's family at the White House and offered to provide financial assistance to cover the funeral costs. But Goldberg reported Trump became enraged when he got the bill, refusing to pay it, saying, "It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a f---ing Mexican!"
According to the report, Natalie Khawam, Guillén's family attorney, told Goldberg the family did not receive money from Trump and that the costs were ultimately covered in part by the Army and donations.
This is EXACTLY why I laugh at all the claims by Victoria Troll and Bashi Troll and the dishonorably discharged druggie scumbag..
ALL their sources that they quote are PROVEN liars when it comes to President Trump.
They simply REFUSE to acknowledge the FACTS...
Khawam accused Goldberg of lying.
"After having dealt with hundreds of reporters in my legal career, this is unfortunately the first time I have to go on record and call out Jeffrey Goldberg@the Atlantic: not only did he misrepresent our conversation but he outright LIED in HIS sensational story," Khawam wrote on X. "More importantly, he used and exploited my clients, and Vanessa Guillen’s murder… for cheap political gain. I would like to also point out that the timing of this ‘story’ is quite suspicious, as this supposed conversation that Trump had would have occurred over 4 years ago! Why a story about it now?!"
"As everyone knows, not only did Trump support our military, he also invited my clients to the Oval Office and supported the I Am Vanessa Guillen bill too. I’m grateful we were successful in getting bipartisan support of the I Am Vanessa Guillen Act, and because of everyone’s hard work and efforts our service members now have more protections and rights while serving our country," she added.
These Trump/America hating liars will say ANYTHING, as long as it's against President Trump...
And the funny thing is, these are the ONLY sources that the Demon'rat Trump/America hating trolls and morons will quote..
What's even MORE hilarious is that the Trump/America hating trolls actually BELIEVE they have ANY credibility!!
BBBBBBWWWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
OK, CW... I have an offer for ya...
I can imagine you are DREADING having to write the Democrat Nightmare scenario because, whatever you write is likely going to be pretty close to factually accurate.. :D
So, if you want, I'll be happy to write it for you.. :D
Just let me know... I'm there for ya, buddy... :D
CNN catches Tampon Tim NO BALLZ Walz in ANOTHER Lie...
CNN fact-checker says Walz's claim on Trump economy 'not true,' says manufacturing jobs rose under him
CNN's fact-checker warns Walz, 'If you‘re going to say something is simply factual, it should be factual'
CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale corrected Democrat vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's claims about the Trump-era economy and made a key observation that some numbers were taken out of context.
"Let‘s talk about manufacturing," anchor Kate Bolduan said to Dale as she spoke Tuesday on "CNN News Central." "Building back up manufacturing in the United States is a focus of both campaigns."
She then played a clip of Walz from his recent appearance on ABC's "The View" where he had claimed, "We want to make sure that you're able to bring manufacturing, like [Democrat presidential nominee] Kamala Harris has said. We know [Republican nominee] Donald Trump lost more manufacturing jobs than any president in American history. That‘s simply factual."
The media network's fact-checker warned that Walz’s claim was simply "not true."
"Well, if you’re going to say something is simply factual, it should be factual. This is not," he said. "It’s not true that the Trump presidency lost more manufacturing jobs than any other presidency. Under George W. Bush, there were about 4.5 million manufacturing jobs lost. Under Trump, it was about 178,000."
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris and Tampon Tim NO BALLZ spew lie after lie after lie..
And, of course, the Weigantian trolls simply ignore the lies, because they LOVE the lies... As long as they are Demon'rat lies... :eyeroll:
Well, if you are doing lying, now do Trump. And/or Vance. And/or Musk. You will find the lies orders of magnitude more frequent. And if you actually care, then I guess you will be voting for Stein? Maybe someone more obscure that has too little press coverage to get away with lying...
And, of course, there is no bigger lie than the BS that Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris pushed that Basement Biden is mentally capable to run in another campaign...
“Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden, as you were with him again and again, repeatedly in that time?” asked interviewer Hallie Jackson after noting that Harris “defended him in the days before and in the days after” the disastrous June debate while campaigning alongside him.
“Of course,” Harris said. “Joe Biden is an — extremely accomplished, experienced, and capable in every way that anyone would want if they’re president. Absolutely.”
When Jackson probed whether Harris had ever witnessed Biden functioning as poorly “behind closed doors” as he did on the debate stage over the summer, Harris repeated the obvious lie that “it was a bad debate. People have bad debates.” He was just having an off night, folks.
Americans know that’s a lie — as do Harris and Jackson and the rest of the Democrat Party — because there would have been no need for a Democrat coup to overthrow the party’s incumbent if Biden’s cognitive performance could be explained as one “bad debate.” His age and cognitive function were already subject to scrutiny four years prior during the 2020 campaign and only got worse from there. They simply couldn’t keep up the charade — or Biden’s poll numbers — anymore.
EVERY Weigantian ('cept for yours truly) bought into the complete and utter BS that Basement Biden was perfectly mentally healthy..
And THAT BS is why NONE of ya'all (NEN) have even the REMOTEST shed of credibility with ANYTHING ya'all claim...
Ya'all will make ANY claim, no matter HOW full of kaa-kaa it is, to further the Trump/America hate agenda that permeates everything ya'all think and say...
It's LAUGHABLE that ya'll actually believe ya have an intelligent thought.. :D
If your guy is so guaranteed to win then why is he already gearing up to contest the election?
Ya'all will make ANY claim, no matter HOW full of kaa-kaa it is, to further the Trump/America hate agenda that permeates everything ya'all think and say...
Uh...look in the mirror? Like your candidate, like your party, every accusation is a projection...
And, once again, Demon'rats are losing the very voters that they CLAIM they support..
Why Are Democrats Losing Black Voters?
The party’s difficulties with working-class Americans turn out to cross racial lines.
In his introduction to “A Pathway to American Renewal,” a new collection of essays by scholars and grassroots activists on how to revitalize low-income communities, the volume’s editor, Robert Woodson Sr., describes himself as “a practitioner—a radical pragmatist—who has spent the last fifty years of my life walking among, and learning from, some of the most resilient people you can imagine.”
Given that Mr. Woodson has been coordinating development programs in poor black neighborhoods since the 1960s, I was curious to get his take on why Kamala Harris hasn’t matched the level of support among blacks that other Democratic presidential candidates have received. CBS News reports that in 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump among black voters 90% to 9%, and this year polls have Ms. Harris at a 78% to 15% advantage. In the seven most competitive states about 1 in 4 black men say they “definitely” or “probably” will vote for Mr. Trump, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Mr. Woodson mused that the track record of Democrats might finally be catching up with them. “Democrats have been running these big cities for 60 years, and black people see the results,” he said. Nor does he believe the problem is unique to Ms. Harris. If Mr. Biden hadn’t dropped out of the race, “he’d be having similar problems with black voters, because they remember the unemployment and low inflation” under Mr. Trump.
The data suggest that Mr. Woodson is on to something. Before the global pandemic shut down the economy in 2020, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings under Mr. Trump grew 12.5% for all black workers and 12.7% for black men, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The corresponding figures for white workers—7.9% and 8.2%—demonstrate that, before Covid, black workers were making absolute gains and gaining on their white counterparts. Under the Biden-Harris administration, inflation-adjusted earnings to date are up less than 1% among blacks and down 1.5% among whites.
The Demon'rat Party is the Party of the KKK and Jim Crow. The Party GAVE this country both the KKK and Jim Crow. This is documented FACT
The Demon'rat Party ALSO fought tooth and nail against the Civil Rights actions of the 50s and 60s...
This is ALSO documented fact..
And NOW black Americans are realizing that President Trump is the "best friend" that they have.. How do we know this??
Because DEMON'RATS have STATED that!!
Polls show that 25% of black Americans support President Trump...
This is going to DESTROY Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris in November...
While I hesitate to use the word "landslide", it's all but assured that President Trump's election victory will be conclusive, definitive and unequivocal...
Landslide??? Quite possibly...
That's some pretty ignorant reasoning for someone who has followed politics for so long. History is just not your forte...
Did our photos after shift yesterday... :D
http://mfccfl.us/yearbook.jpg
In all my stunning glory.. heh :D
And then we have CBS' stunning campaign contribution to Token DEI Hire Headboard Harri's campaign..
FCC commissioner urges CBS to release the transcript from Harris' '60 Minutes' interview
Center for American Rights files ‘significant and intentional news distortion’ complaint to FCC
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) top Republican Brendan Carr claimed the agency is taking a recent formal complaint seriously over CBS’ alleged "distortion" of its "60 Minutes" interview with Vice President Kamala Harris.
"My FCC colleague, Republican Commissioner [Nathan] Simington, has been very active on this. What he's pointed out is the news distortion rule is a very, very narrow rule at the FCC. In almost every case, it doesn't apply because it could get into sort of editorial decisions that are protected by the First Amendment. But what he said is that CBS should release the transcript," Commissioner Carr said on "Mornings with Maria" Tuesday.
"And the reason why this complaint is not frivolous is because the rules say, for instance, the example we've given is, if you take an answer to a question that is a 'yes' and you replace the answer of 'no' from a different question… that's something that would potentially fall within the news distortion rule," he expanded.
Last Wednesday, the Center for American Rights, also known as the CAR, filed a formal complaint with the FCC accusing CBS News of "significant and intentional news distortion."
The CAR argued that the discrepancies "amount to deliberate news distortion – a violation of FCC rules governing broadcasters' public interest obligations."
The FCC is going to force CBS to release the full unedited transcript.. And THEN the facts will come out..
Of course, Demon'rat morons will whine and cry that President Trump refused to go on 60 Mins.. Of course, that's because the LAST time President Trump was on 60 Mins, the Demon'rat bimbo Lezzy Stahl lied constantly...
OF COURSE President Trump won't go on such a Demon'rat BS show...
But CBS and 60 Mins are going to crash and burn.. Just like they did with that Dan Rather instance where they fabricated Anti-Bush BS... Nothing changes at 60 mins... :eyeroll:
As both JL and I agree...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXQLY3WIAAQkEJ?format=jpg&name=900x900
This election is President Donald Trump's... :D
title for your image:
The criminal fraud and the dipshit billionaire...
CNN just can't stop singing the praises of President Donald Trump! :D
CNN data guru marvels at Trump flipping independent vote in key swing states: ‘Very good sign' for GOP nominee
According to CNN's aggregate numbers, Trump has a lead over Harris among independents in key swing states
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten marveled over former President Trump’s current lead with independent voters in crucial swing states, suggesting it’s evidence that Trump has good momentum that could win him the election in November.
Enten broke down the independent voter polling during "CNN News Central" on Wednesday, showing network anchor John Berman that Trump has been able to gain a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among the demographic in key swing states. Considering the Democratic Party won those voters by +5 in 2020, Enten noted it displayed significant momentum for Trump.
"That‘s the type of movement Donald Trump loves to see and it’s a type of movement that I think gives Democrats some agita," Enten stated.
Poor Poor Weigantian trolls...
All they have is sour grapes.. :D
I am gonna miss them when they are too ashamed and embarrassed to show their faces after 5 Non 2024..
They are gonna miss the HUGE President Trump Weigantian celebration!! :D
It's interesting that you don't mention you are copy and pasting a FoxNews article and not a CNN one...
Poor Poor Weigantian trolls...
All they have is sour grapes.. :D
That's not a nice way to talk about yourself...
Donald Trump’s side is becoming ever more confident of victory. In recent weeks, RealClearPolitics Polling Averages show Harris’ national lead evaporating while Trump has moved slightly ahead in all six battleground states. Betting markets are now giving Trump the edge.
In a repetition of Trump’s first term, party leaders will refuse to accept his election. An army of Demon'rat Party lawyers will amass, awaiting instructions on how, and where, to challenge the results. If, as the polls suggest, Democrats retake the House, they have already floated the idea of refusing to seat him, invoking the Civil War-era 14th Amendment to claim he is a Jan. 6 “insurrectionist.” Assuming that gambit fails, they will almost certainly launch multiple impeachment efforts against him while their stenographers in legacy media continuously cast him as an existential threat to the Republic.
Demon'ts are going to try and destroy our democracy...
President Trump's victory will be so definitive and so unequivocal that the ONLY way that Demon'rats will be able to respond is with a civil war..
And, of course, Demon'rats are afraid of guns and are completely ignorant of tactics and such.
So it's going to be a massacre....
And Demon'rats will only have themselves to blame..
And how many of the recent RCP polls are right wing junk polls? How much money from whales are manipulating the betting markets? And as mentioned above, Trump is already already gearing up to contest the election. Doesn't sound to confident to me...
Demon'rats are whining and crying that Americans aren't buying their PRESIDENT TRUMP IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY bull-carp anymore...
The Demon'rats simply have NO plan beyond hysterical Trump/America hate screaming and yelling.. What Demon'rats don't realize is that they have NO CREDIBILITY..
All Americans already know how awesome President Trump is as a leader and as POTUS..
“Democracy dies in darkness” is the Washington Post’s slogan, but can it handle the light?
The Post has been doggedly portraying the election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as a choice between tyranny (Trump) and democracy (Harris). Yet when it commissioned a poll on threats to democracy shortly before the election, it did not quite work out.
Voters in swing states deem the greater threat to democracy to be Kamala Harris, who is running on a “save democracy” platform.
The poll sampled 5,016 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It's perfectly clear to ANYONE with more than 2 brain cells to rub together that it's Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris and the Demon'rats are the ones who are the threat to democracy.
It's DEMON'RATS who ignored democracy and coronated Basement Biden..
Then it was DEMON'RATS again who didn't have any confidence in Basement Biden and AGAIN ignored their voters and coronated Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris...
I have long criticized the apocalyptic, democracy-ending predictions of Basement Biden, Harris and others as ignoring the safeguards in our system against authoritarian power.
Nevertheless, Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris supporters have ratcheted up the rhetoric to a level of pure hysteria. Recently, douchebag Michael Cohen, a convicted felon and Trump’s disbarred former lawyer, told MSNBC that if President Trump wins the election, he will “get rid of the judiciary and get rid of the Congress.”
Hysterical BS that has NO factual basis in reality..
Recently, MSNBC host Al Sharpton and regular Donny Deutsch warned viewers that they will likely be added to an enemies “list” for some type of roundup after a Trump election.
MSNBC host Rachel Madcow also joined in the theme of a final stand before the gulag: “For that matter, what convinces you that these massive camps he’s planning are only for migrants? So, yes, I’m worried about me — but only as much as I’m worried about all of us.”
Occasional Cortex was quick to add her own name to a list that seems to be constantly updated by the media. She told podcast host Kara Swisher, “I mean, it sounds nuts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy threw me in jail.”
On ABC’s “The View,” the hosts are becoming indistinguishable from tinfoil-hatted subway prophets. Whoopi Goldberg even explained how Trump is already committed to being a dictator who will “put you people away … take all the journalists … take all the gay folks … move you all around and disappear you.”
Despite years of alarmist predictions from Basement Biden, Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris, the Demon'rat press and pundits, the public is not buying it.
It is not because they particularly like President Trump. Many of his supporters seem poised to vote for him despite viewing him as polarizing and, at times, obnoxious.
No, it is because the American voter has a certain innate resistance to being played as a chump. Many of the same figures claiming that democracy is at stake supported ballot cleansing to remove Trump and others from the ballots. They supported the weaponization of the legal process in New York against Trump. Likewise, as Harris insists that she is the only hope for fundamental rights, many cannot fail to notice that she is supporting an unprecedented system of censorship that one court called “Orwellian.”
Token DEI Hire Headboard Harris’ claim to be the only hope for democracy is proving as tin-eared as running on pure “joy.”
Voters are clearly demanding more than a political pitch of abject fear mixed with absolute joy.
Demon'rats have NOTHING to run on but hysterical bullshit and hysterical fear-mongering..
And American's are calling bullshit on Demon'rats...
Dam dude, are you home sick having a fever dream or something?
CW
Nice writeup. :)
washington post and LA times are both conspicuously not endorsing. given the distinct possibility that donald wins in eleven days, i wonder whether the owners have been threatened with retribution should they endorse his opponent.