With one week left until Election Day, a trend seems to have emerged. Unfortunately for Democrats, this trend seems to be favoring Donald Trump, although not in what you'd call an overwhelming way. It may be more the cumulative effect of a number of battleground states just barely edging over to Trump simultaneously. But it is the first trend of any kind in quite a while, so it bears mentioning.

This election may be decided by a last minute movement towards one candidate or the other by those voters still undecided or persuadable. What is odd is that this column examines data from the past week, but the momentum may currently be in the midst of a big shift in the other direction. It all depends on whether the fallout from Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally manifests itself in a real shift in voting or not. Right now -- today -- the energy and momentum seem to be with Kamala Harris, while Trump is playing defense. How much of this is media perception versus actual on-the-ground reality with voters is yet to be seen, however.

It's still a very open race, to put all of this another way. But when you look at the raw numbers from the past week, Trump seems to be enjoying a slight advantage. This is pretty obvious in our first chart.

This chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.

Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. The white areas in between show states that are perfectly Tied.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

The week started off well for Kamala Harris, but things quickly turned sour for her. The first day of the week, Nevada shifted from Harris's column to Tied, but North Carolina went the opposite way, from Tied to Harris. This resulted in a net gain of 10 Electoral Votes (EV) for Harris, which put her one EV over the 270 needed to win.

The next day, however, things went mostly in the other direction. Nevada flipped from Tied to Trump's column, and North Carolina moved from Harris to Trump as well. Wisconsin moved from Harris to Tied, although this was offset by Michigan moving from Tied to Harris.

The net result from all this movement in overall numbers was that Harris fell from 271 EV to 260 EV, Tied went from 21 EV to 10 EV, and Trump saw his number boosted from 246 EV up to 268 EV.

The next day proved to be more bad news for Team Harris. Wisconsin flipped from Tied to Trump's column, while Pennsylvania moved from Harris to Tied. Harris saw her number slide even further, down to 241 EV, while Trump saw his go up to 278 EV and Tied went up to 19 EV. This is numerically significant for Trump, since it is the first time his total has been 270 EV or more since the beginning of August (which was really a holdover from his numbers versus Joe Biden). These numbers held steady for the rest of the week (there was some movement between the candidate's internal categories, but no movement from one candidate to the other from this point on).

For the week, Trump improved his standing by an impressive 32 EV to end at that winning 278 EV number, while Harris fell 20 EV to end up at 241 EV. Tied shrank from 31 EV down to 19 EV. Percentage-wise, Harris fell from 48.5 percent down to 44.8 percent, while Trump improved from 45.7 percent to 51.6 percent.

So let's take a look at the breakdown of support within each candidate's totals, beginning with Trump.

As always, states are divided into three categories, depending on the state's polling margin. A lead of less than 5 points goes into the "Barely" column. A lead of 5 to 10 points means "Weak," and a lead of over 10 points is considered "Strong."

Overall, Trump improved his total, but internally the news wasn't quite as good. Trump started the week off seeing Florida's 30 EV move back from Strong to Weak again (that second large hump in the lowest line on the graph). The same day, however, Trump added both Nevada and North Carolina to his Barely column, improving his overall total by 22 EV.

The next day, Trump moved Wisconsin's 10 EV to his Barely column as well, which pushed him over the 270 EV winning threshold.

The only other movement came as a rare poll out of Alaska was released, which moved the state from Weak Trump to Strong Trump (that last nudge upwards in the lowest line on the chart).

Trump started off the week with 246 EV and he ended with 278 EV, which is 8 EV more than he needs to win the Electoral College. His Strong number moved from 141 EV down to 111 EV and then up to 114 EV, from the shifts in Florida and Alaska. His Weak number echoed this in reverse, moving from 72 EV up to 102 EV and then back down to 99 EV. But Trump's Barely category was where the action was. It rose from only 33 EV at the start of the week up to 65 EV at the end.

Trump's "Strong plus Weak" line (which I consider an important indicator of strength) didn't move at all this week, as there was no movement other than between the two categories. Trump remained at 213 EV in Strong plus Weak all week long.

Now let's take a look at the chart for Kamala Harris.

As mentioned, Harris started off the week on a positive note. But from there, everything seemed to go downhill for her. Harris began by nudging her overall total back above the winning margin (barely) with the addition of North Carolina (from Tied) only partially offset by the loss of Nevada (to Tied), which gave her 271 EV -- one more than is needed to win.

The next day, however, three states moved around, and only one of them was positive for Harris. She lost Wisconsin to Tied while moving Michigan from Tied to Barely Harris. At the same time, North Carolina moved from Barely Harris to Barely Trump. This all worked out to a net loss of 11 EV for Harris, all from the Barely column.

The day after, Pennsylvania moved to Tied, a loss of 19 EV for Harris. A poll was also released from New Hampshire which moved the state from Weak Harris to Barely Harris on the same day. One day later, a poll out of Virginia moved it from Strong Harris to Weak Harris, and just today a poll out of Minnesota moved the state from Weak Harris to Barely Harris.

As you can see, after that one day of good news at the start, everything else has been downhill for Harris this week, which is certainly a concern seeing as how we only have one more week to go.

For the week, Harris lost a net of 20 EV overall, dropping her from 261 EV down to 241 EV. This leaves her needing 29 EV to reach the margin of victory. She started the week with 189 EV in Strong but saw this drop to 176 EV with the loss of Virginia down to Weak. In the Weak column, Harris moved from 37 EV down then up then down again to finish the week with the loss of only one, ending at 36 EV. Her Barely number rose and fell several times as well, from 35 EV up to 45 EV but then back down to 19 EV, to finish up at 29 EV today.

One truly concerning thing was that for the first time in over a month, Harris saw her Strong plus Weak number fall -- from 226 EV down to 222 EV with the loss of New Hampshire, and then down to 212 EV with the loss of Minnesota (both of which moved to Barely Harris). Not only is this the first time she's seen her numbers drop here in a very long time, but it is also the first time since August that Trump edged her out in this category (Trump finished the week with 213 EV in his Strong plus Weak category).

 

My Picks

While this week's numbers don't look especially good for Harris, when I add in my gut feeling to the mix things don't seem nearly as dire. This week could be just a statistical anomaly, where Trump did slightly better in some outlier polls in multiple states at once. Most of the battleground states still only show razor-thin margins, meaning everything is within the margin of error. So let's take a look at how I see the state of the race right now. My picks are divided into "Safe," "Probable," and "Lean" for each candidate, with a "Too Close To Call" category at the end. All of the data (a full list of states with their EV numbers) can be found at the end of the column, as always.

 

Likely States -- Harris

Safe Harris (19 states, 222 EV)
My gut tells me both Minnesota and Virginia are still pretty safe for Harris, so I am leaving both states here, even though a case could be made to move them downwards. I also considered leaving New Hampshire here, but in the end had to move it to merely Probable Harris.

Probable Harris (2 states, 19 EV)
New Hampshire moved down to this category, but in a fit of wild optimism I am moving Michigan up from Lean Harris to Probable Harris. The polling in Michigan has been fairly positive for Harris for a while, and the most recent polls show her opening up a real lead here. So I think Michigan can be considered Probable Harris at this point.

 

Likely States -- Trump

Safe Trump (23 states, 213 EV)
I am moving Texas up from Probable Trump this week, since while Trump's polls in the state haven't been overwhelming, he has shown a consistent lead and it would be somewhat of a minor miracle if Harris won the state. So the state really has to be considered Safe Trump at this point.

Probable Trump (1 state, 6 EV)
With Texas moving up to Safe Trump, only one state remains as Probable Trump. Although a good argument can be made that the polling is wonky and that Trump can consider Iowa a safe state, for now I am leaving it here.

 

Tossup States

Lean Harris (1 state, 6 EV)
This is where we get into gut feelings deciding the categories in a big way. As already mentioned, I optimistically moved Michigan up from Lean Harris to Probable Harris this week. I struggled with where to put Pennsylvania, since I do believe Harris has a very slight edge there, but Trump posted a few polls inching out Harris in the state, so I had to move it down to Too Close To Call for now. An argument could be made to move Nevada down with Pennsylvania, but I still think Harris has an edge in the state so I am (optimistically) leaving it as Lean Harris.

Lean Trump (3 states, 43 EV)
Two states moved up to Lean Trump from Too Close To Call this week, in addition to Arizona staying as Lean Trump. Trump seems to have opened up an edge in Georgia that seems to be persisting, even though Harris does occasionally best him or tie him in the polling. But over the past week Trump posted some good numbers, so for now Georgia has to be seen as Lean Trump. The second state I struggled with and part of me still thinks it belongs in Too Close To Call, but for now I am moving North Carolina up to Lean Trump. The state could still go either way, but it seems like Trump has a razor-thin edge here for the time being.

Too Close To Call (2 states, 29 EV)
Two states moved out of this category this week (Georgia and North Carolina, both up to Lean Trump) and one moved down into it again (Pennsylvania, from Lean Harris). The only Too Close To Call state from last week that remained a complete tossup was Wisconsin, where the polling seems almost perfectly tied.

 

Final Tally

With one week to go, things are still about as close as they can get. Kamala Harris is making her closing pitch to voters tonight on the same spot that Donald Trump held his January 6th rally, and she has pounced on the hateful rhetoric from Trump's New York City rally (note: there are a whole lot of Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania). But she'll have to shift the last-minute momentum her way in the next week if she's going to have a chance.

Adding up the Safe and Probable numbers for both candidates puts Harris at 241 EV to Donald Trump's 219 EV. This leaves Harris 29 EV short of the goal and Trump 51 EV short. But Harris only has one state in her Lean column, with only 6 EV. This means even adding Nevada in to her total only puts her at 247 EV -- still 23 EV short. Trump, on the other hand, has a lot more in his Lean column, with three states and 43 EV. This puts him at 262 EV, only 8 EV short of the goal.

If all my picks are correct -- even the Lean states -- then Harris would have to win both the Too Close To Call states to win, while Trump could win the whole contest with either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

The race is still wide open. Even though Trump showed some positive movement this week, none of it was really overwhelming -- it was all pretty marginal. It could be a real trend and Trump could win with some last-minute wind at his back, or it could prove to just be statistical noise. Harris could generate some of her own momentum in the final days as well, which would likely not appear in the polling but show up only when the votes are actually counted.

We've got one week to go. And anything could still happen. The polling is so tight in so many places that it is impossible to accurately predict what is going to happen next Tuesday.

 

[Full Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name -- and please note a lot of these have changed since 2020, due to the reallocation of House seats after the Census. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)

Kamala Harris Likely Easy Wins -- 21 States -- 241 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 19 States -- 222 Electoral Votes
California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawai'i (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 19 Electoral Votes
Michigan (15), New Hampshire (4)

 

Donald Trump Likely Easy Wins -- 24 States -- 219 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 23 States -- 213 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (30), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 1 State -- 6 Electoral Votes
Iowa (6)

 

Tossup States -- 6 States -- 78 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Harris -- 1 State -- 6 Electoral Votes
Nevada (6)

Tossup States Leaning Trump -- 3 States -- 43 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16)

Too Close To Call -- 2 States -- 29 Electoral Votes
Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

 

Polling data gaps:

[Note: during the primaries, Zogby conducted a poll in every state on April 21 (with the sole exception of Washington D.C., which has had no polling at all this cycle). But I thought it'd be more useful to keep track here of which states have not been polled since Joe Biden dropped out of the race.]

New polling data -- 2 States
(States polled with Harris for the first time since our previous column, with the dates of the new poll in parenthesis.)

Kansas (10/16), South Dakota (10/22)

No polling data with Harris -- 10 States
(States which have not been polled since July 21st, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)

Alabama (4/21), Hawai'i (4/21), Idaho (4/21), Kentucky (4/21), Louisiana (4/26), Mississippi (4/21), New Jersey (4/21), North Dakota (4/21), Washington D.C. (--), Wyoming (4/21)

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant