Electoral Math -- My 2024 Picks
The final polls are in. The last week of the campaign is over. The only thing left is Election Day and counting up all the votes.
There has been quite a bit of movement in the polling this week, and almost all of it has been good news for Kamala Harris. It's looking like Donald Trump peaked about a week too early, in fact. Harris seems to have created some last-minute momentum, and last-minute momentum can decide close races like this.
This election cycle may, in fact, go down in history as the only one where a candidate sprang his own "October surprise" on himself. A whole lot of undecided voters have been specifically citing Trump's Madison Square Garden rally as the reason they decided to vote for Harris. Trump's hate-fest reminded a lot of voters of the absolute chaos they could expect for four years if he wins, and it has turned them away from Trump. This isn't limited to Puerto Ricans, either (although they could prove to be crucial in Pennsylvania). Trump's closing argument seems to be: "All the craziness, and twice the racism!" and it is motivating voters to choose Harris instead.
Continuing the trend that really began in 2020 (in the dark days of COVID), early voting has caught on in a big way. As of this writing, over 75 million Americans have already voted. These numbers were higher back in 2020 (when everyone was afraid of face-to-face interactions), but what it signifies is that the changes instituted for the pandemic convinced a whole bunch of voters that it is a lot easier and more convenient to vote early (by mail, in person, by drop box) than it is to try to fit it into a weekday. I fully expect early voting to become the most popular way to cast a ballot in future elections as well. What it all means is anyone's guess, in terms of which candidate will benefit more. The early-voting numbers may just mean a far lower number on Election Day, rather than signifying a boost in anyone's turnout.
Because this is the final column in the Electoral Vote series for 2024, I will not be hedging any bets and instead will make my picks for every state. Most of these are pure guesses, I should mention, since the polling has been so tight that literally anything could happen tomorrow night (and on into the rest of the week, if things are really close). Trump could sweep all the battlegrounds and win or Harris could sweep them all herself. Either is a definite possibility at this point.
But as I said, the last-minute momentum sure does seem to be on Harris's side. Let's take a final look at our charts to see what the data has been showing this week.
The first chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.
Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. The white areas in between show states that are perfectly Tied.
[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]
Five states flipped this week, and Harris saw gains in four of them. Nevada went from Trump's column to Tied and then wound up in Harris's column. Wisconsin flipped from Trump straight to Harris. Pennsylvania went from Tied to Trump, back to Tied, and then to Harris. And North Carolina went from Trump to Tied. The only state which didn't follow this trend was Arizona, which went from Trump to Tied, then to Harris, back to Tied, and wound up back in Trump's column today.
The upshot of all this movement was a steady climb in Harris's standing, as you can see. She started off the week with only 241 Electoral Votes (EV) in her column, then saw this rise to 251 EV, 262 EV, and finally 276 EV -- which is 6 EV more than she needs to win.
Trump's numbers were the reverse, heading steadily downward all week. He started off with 278 EV, rose briefly to 280 EV before falling back to 270 EV, 251 EV, and finally 246 EV. The week ended with only one state (North Carolina) in the Tied column.
Harris gained 35 EV this week, while Trump lost 32 EV. This is what last-minute momentum looks like, folks. By percentage, Harris went from 44.7 percent of the Electoral College votes to 51.3 percent. Trump fell from 51.6 percent down to 45.7 percent.
So let's take a quick look at the charts of each candidate's relative strength before we get to our final picks.
As always, states are divided into three categories, depending on the state's polling margin. A lead of less than 5 points goes into the "Barely" column. A lead of 5 to 10 points means "Weak," and a lead of over 10 points is considered "Strong."
As mentioned, there just wasn't much in the way of good news for Donald Trump this week. He lost Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona and only managed to wrest Arizona back, in the end.
Trump's Strong and Weak numbers did not budge at all, and he finished with the same 114 EV in Strong and 99 EV in Weak that he started with. But in his Barely column, he went from 65 EV all the way down to 33 EV, a loss of almost half. Since neither category budged, Trump finished with the same 213 EV in "Strong plus Weak" as he began with.
Trump went from a winning 278 EV down to a losing 246 EV, when you total it all up. He now needs to add 24 EV to put together a winning number.
Harris's chart was a lot more positive this week:
Not only did Kamala Harris improve overall this week, she improved internally as well. Three states got stronger for her: Minnesota, New Jersey, and Maine. Minnesota moved from Barely Harris to Weak Harris, while both New Jersey and Maine moved from Weak Harris to Strong Harris (although, in the case of New Jersey, this wasn't any big shift in preference, just the fact that they hadn't been polled in many months).
Harris also picked up Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania from Trump, while moving North Carolina out of Trump's column to merely Tied.
From the bottom of the chart upwards, Harris improved her Strong numbers from 176 EV up to 194 EV, a gain of 18 EV. She briefly improved her Weak number from 36 EV up to 46 EV (that little notch in the middle line), but then her Weak number fell back to 28 EV by the end of the week. Which was actually good news for her, since the states migrated to Strong, not the other direction. Adding together Strong plus Weak, Harris improved from 212 EV up to 222 EV for the week.
But her Barely category saw the most movement, starting at 29 EV and rising to 54 EV by week's end. As you can see, this put her back over the winning threshold once again, as her overall total rose from 241 EV up to 276 EV -- 6 EV more than she needs to win the race.
My Picks
Which brings me to my final picks for the 2024 campaign. I have to begin by saying I do not have a very high degree of confidence that my picks will resemble the actual outcome. This whole election has been very close, once Joe Biden turned over the reins to Kamala Harris. Harris enjoyed a big bounce in the polls at the very start, and generated a lot of enthusiasm for her campaign from the beginning. She initially campaigned on "joy" and predicted it would be a "vibes election." As things came down to the wire, she shifted into more traditional attacks on her opponent, while Donald Trump seemed to stop her bounce in the polls just short of having a clear lead. Trump was even generating his own miniature bounce in the polls over the past month or so, but he seems to have peaked too early.
Elections can (and often do) come down to which way the public shifts in the closing days of a campaign. Trump's closing argument (if you can call it that) has been so all over the map it's tough to even state what his campaign theme is at the moment. He dialed up the hate and fear-mongering as far as he could, but he may just have gone a step too far in this direction. Now that people are facing actually having to vote, they have been reminded of the nonstop chaotic circus that was Trump's entire first term in office.
Harris has made one message central to her campaign: "Turn the page." She wants to see America turn the page on Donald Trump, plain and simple. She wants to make him a two-time loser. She wants to see the Republican Party finally realize that following Trump is doing them no good at all. If she is successful tomorrow night, it certainly would create an opening for the GOP to move back to where they were before Trump entered the scene. There's no guarantee this will happen, however. Trump could even immediately announce he's going to run in 2028 (which wouldn't surprise me in the least). Even if he does hang up his spurs, there are plenty of Republicans who have seen how successful Trump's schtick was, and they may try emulating his style in the future.
But that's getting pretty far ahead of things, of course. For now, we've got to get through Election Day (and Election Night -- if not "Election Week"). So without hedging, without the cop-out of "Too Close To Call," here are my picks for the 2024 election. Feel free to share your own picks, if you think I've gotten things wildly wrong.
Safe Harris States -- 20 States -- 226 Electoral Votes
California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawai'i (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)
Safe Trump States -- 24 States -- 219 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (30), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
These all seem pretty solid to me, with a couple of minor exceptions. I'm pretty confident that Kamala Harris is going to win New Hampshire, although there was one outlier poll showing her tied with Trump. Every single other poll, however, has shown Harris with a pretty comfortable lead, so it's an easy pick to leave this in her column.
On the other side, Donald Trump is almost certain to win Iowa, even though a well-respected poll (that was right in the past two election cycles) showed Harris with a small lead. A different poll released at the same time showed Trump with a huge lead, however. There hasn't been a ton of polling done in Iowa (and some have showed a surprisingly close race) but in the end I think it's a pretty safe bet to leave it in Trump's column.
New Jersey finally had a poll (the first one since April), and it showed precisely what I've been thinking all along -- it's a very safe state for Harris.
And one final footnote -- I didn't include this in any of these columns, but I am expecting Harris to win the "blue dot" district in Nebraska while Trump wins the state, and Trump to win the "red dot" district in Maine while Harris wins the state. These will cancel each other out, in essence (I have marked them on the map, below).
Here is what the map of just the safe states for both candidates looks like (created at the excellent 270ToWin site, where you can create your own map of your picks, if you'd like):
As you can see, both candidates are far short of the 270 EV magic number. Kamala Harris needs 44 EV to cross the finish line, while Donald Trump needs 51 EV. Which brings us to the hard part -- calling the battleground states one way or the other.
Close States
Arizona (11)
We're going to do this in alphabetical order, I should mention. So we start with Arizona, which has flipped between the two candidates several times over the course of the race. It even flipped back and forth over the past week, moving from Barely Trump to Tied to Barely Harris, back to Tied, and then back to Barely Trump. However, Trump seems to have had a slight edge here for months -- the last time (before this week) the state registered as Barely Harris was late August. There could be "reverse coattails" that Harris might benefit from, since a Democrat looks likely to win the Senate race and there is an abortion rights measure on the ballot as well. But even with that, I am going to reluctantly put Arizona in Trump's column.
Georgia (16)
Georgia has also flipped between the candidates several times over the course of the campaign, but as with Arizona, Trump seems to have a very slight edge in most of the polling. Harris could score an upset victory here (especially if she does better than expected getting Black voters to turn out), and the polls have tightened in the final days, but I am also going to hand Georgia's 16 EV to Trump.
Michigan (15)
Of all the battleground states, Kamala Harris seems to be doing the best in Michigan. She has polled pretty consistently well here, and she seems to have built a solid edge over Trump. So this is a pretty easy pick, because I think Harris will easily win Michigan.
Nevada (6)
Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll, and it has flipped back and forth between the candidates regularly. Currently it is in Barely Harris, but was Barely Trump just last week, for instance. Nevertheless, since about August Harris has seemed to have a slight edge here, and I am betting that this edge holds and Nevada chalks up a win for Harris tomorrow night.
North Carolina (16)
This is going to be the least-confident pick I make this year, as it is mostly just gut feeling. North Carolina has gone back and forth repeatedly throughout the campaign, and from the raw numbers Trump might have built up a slight edge here. But he's not winning every poll, and the state is currently the only one in the Tied column. But I am going out on a limb and predicting that Harris will pull out a surprise victory here. I think the effects of the hurricane on Trump-leaning counties will depress the turnout slightly, and I think that might just be enough of an edge for Harris to win. It will not surprise me if I am wrong in this pick, but it feels like Harris has enough of a chance here to make a prediction that she'll pull of the upset.
Pennsylvania (19)
Pennsylvania might prove to be the Keystone State for the 2024 election, as many have been predicting all along. Whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania might wind up winning the whole race, to put it another way. And we may not know who has won it for days (due to Republicans in the legislature mandating that they use the slowest possible way of counting). Harris has held a slight edge here for a while, but the state did flip this week from Tied to Barely Trump, back to Tied, and then to Barely Harris. So it's really anyone's guess which way it will go. I am going to put my faith in the large population of Puerto Ricans in the state and predict it will wind up in Harris's column, though.
Wisconsin (10)
After the two hardest states to call, we end up with an easier one. While the state has flipped a number of times, Harris seems to have built up a pretty consistent edge here. She has led in almost every poll since the end of July, in fact. So it's a fairly easy call to say that Wisconsin will go for Harris tomorrow night.
My Electoral College Prediction
When you total it all up, here's what you get:
Kamala Harris -- 292 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -- 246 Electoral Votes
Here's what my final map looks like:
As I said, I don't make these predictions with all that high a degree of confidence. But then I am not alone -- nobody is out there confidently asserting any of their picks either. What has been true all along is still true -- this is going to be one of the closest presidential elections in American history. The polling is so tight that anything from a Trump sweep of all the battleground states to a Harris sweep is eminently possible. The polling could be wrong -- in either direction. There may be "shy" voters out there that the pollsters never talked to -- for either candidate. The election could be determined by new voters (people who haven't voted before), and pollsters routinely discount such people.
After the experience of 2020, not only does nobody know right now who is going to win, we might not even find that out for days. If some states are incredibly close, they'll have to count every single vote before we know who wins the whole race. Of course, I'll be watching the results come in tomorrow night (along with everybody else), and I even have a built-in advantage, since I live on the West Coast (and will be able to stay up later than those further east). But that might not be enough -- we could all be waiting on pins and needles for the rest of the week, as indeed happened last time.
If Donald Trump loses, it won't even end with the counting. Team Trump is all set to go with hundreds of court cases, in multiple states. They'll make wild claims (the same as they did last time) and they might even try to disrupt the Electoral College process (as they did last time).
I close this quadrennial column series by urging everyone who is eligible to get out and vote tomorrow (if you haven't already cast your ballot). Because every vote might indeed be necessary.
Polling data gaps:
[Note: during the primaries, Zogby conducted a poll in every state on April 21 (with the sole exception of Washington D.C., which has had no polling at all this cycle). But I thought it'd be more useful to keep track here of which states have not been polled since Joe Biden dropped out of the race.]
New polling data -- 2 States
(States polled with Harris for the first time since our previous column, with the dates of the new poll in parenthesis.)
New Jersey (10/22), Wyoming (10/27)
No polling data with Harris -- 8 States
(States which have not been polled since July 21st, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)
Alabama (4/21), Hawai'i (4/21), Idaho (4/21), Kentucky (4/21), Louisiana (4/26), Mississippi (4/21), North Dakota (4/21), Washington D.C. (--)
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
The polls are baloney and Harris will win and it won’t be that close. I’m watching Trump live right now and he’s describing an American hellscape that doesn’t exist. Is he counting on black men?
This election cycle may, in fact, go down in history as the only one where a candidate sprang his own "October surprise" on himself.
Perhaps when all the dust settles from the election, we'll discover that Trump actually handicapped his second attempt at reelection via two October surprises of his own making just days before the elections:
* October 27, 2024 - Trumpian Hatefest, Madison Square Garden, 4 Pennsylvania Plaza, New York, NY
* October 27, 2020 - Amy Coney Barrett Swearing-In Ceremony, White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC
*
Hell hath no fury...
i'm not so sure. At the moment I have Donald up 283-257, with Kamala winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, and a messy situation in PA with all sorts of dirty tricks on every side. However, I think any of the three Eastern swing states could very easily flip my model and give Harris the win.
Women are the wall, and Trump is going to pay for it.
I want someone to do an under-the-radar effort in Texas over the next four years, and actually turn it blue. Nobody polls there, because it’s not a swing state.
Gods, the first 12-hr night shift is real bitch!!
But, since something momentous is happening today, I wanted to get my comments on the record before I crashed to prepare for tonight's 12-hr night shift.. :D
Kick,
}}}OK... Let's forget the "considerable margin" part..{{{
Moving the goalposts. Typical.
Not at all..
You have an immoral imperative whereas you simply cannot admit when you are wrong. To accomplish this you have a nasty habit of stating your claims whereas they are intentionally ambiguous, obtuse and equivocal and open to whatever interpretation serves your America Hate agenda.
I am simply not going to allow you to get away with it this time. I am going to demand that you state with complete clarity and unambiguously what exactly you are betting the million dollars on..
Are you betting a million dollars that President Trump WILL win the Popular Vote, just not by a "considerable margin"??
Or, are you betting a million dollars that President Trump won't win the Popular Vote at all??
Which is it?? Put up or shut up, baby... :D I really could use that million dollars.. :D
And, anticipating your equivocal, obtuse and ambiguous response, I won't NEED the million, depending on what you are actually betting.. :D
}}}So, you do acknowledge that President Trump could win the election..{{{
There is only one person on this forum who has ever denied that a presidential candidate could win the election, and it's actually you.
That's not what I asked you, now is it..
Once again, you prove your immoral imperative... :D
}}}A HUUUGGE win along the lines of 489 EV For President Trump and a mere 42 EV for Harris..{{{
That is not mathematically possible, science denier.
ELECTION 1980
Ronald Reagan Republican 489 43,901,812
Jimmy Carter (I) Democratic 49 35,483,820
What part of "along the lines of" is not clear to you, honey?? :D
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/04/police-officer-lawsuits-capitol-riot-trump-526491
Politico!!!???
BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Why not quote MSNBC?? It would have as much credibility... :D
Russ,
That you think anything you wrote should be viewed as a nightmare by Democrats is what makes no sense.
You don't believe that President Trump ushering a new Technological Golden Age Renaissance for America is a Democrat nightmare???
Hmmmm.. I would like to explore this with you if you are willing... I am sincerely intrigued. :D
What you wrote was great!
Thank you, Russ.. That means a lot, I sincerely mean that.... :D
Caddy,
I had a whole assessment devoted to you and what a sad pathetic hate filled bigot you really are..
But then I decided you are really not worth it.
Yer going to die alone in some gutter with a needle in your arm and no one will care one whit about your passing other than to comment how much better off society is without the likes of you..
JL,
I still have Donald up at the moment, but your completely unrealistic cheerleading is giving me hope that perhaps i'm wrong.
The facts are there, which I will get to in a moment..
Ya'all just refuse to see them because they only news sites ya'all read are the likes of MSNBC, WaPoop and The View... :^/
CW
There has been quite a bit of movement in the polling this week, and almost all of it has been good news for Kamala Harris. It's looking like Donald Trump peaked about a week too early, in fact. Harris seems to have created some last-minute momentum, and last-minute momentum can decide close races like this
That's what MSNBC and WaPoop has told you, eh?? :D
Do you have any facts to support this from UN-BIASED and OBJECTIVE news sources??
No??? Of course not.. :D
A whole lot of undecided voters have been specifically citing Trump's Madison Square Garden rally as the reason they decided to vote for Harris. Trump's hate-fest reminded a lot of voters of the absolute chaos they could expect for four years if he wins, and it has turned them away from Trump.
Same question...
Any OBJECTIVE and UN-BIASED news sources saying this??
The early-voting numbers may just mean a far lower number on Election Day, rather than signifying a boost in anyone's turnout.
And early voting in ALL Swing States are favoring President Trump and Republicans... :D Forgot to add that little FACT (Note To JL :D...) in... :D
Here is ANOTHER *FACT* for ya'all.. Pay attention, JL.. :D
IN the HISTORY of the country, there has NEVER been an incumbent win the election where 35% or less of the country felt the country was heading in the right direction..
Today, only 24% of the country feel America is heading in the right direction..
It is simply IMPOSSIBLE for Harris and NO BALLZ Walz to win...
Harris' campaign slogan is A NEW WAY FORWARD...
Yet she has completely and utterly FAILED to explain to Americans exactly what this NEW WAY is??
Remember what she has stated unequivocally on THREE different occasions???
"Knowing what you know now, would you have done anything different than Joe Biden."
"NOTHING COMES TO MIND" was Harris' response..
THAT should be Harris' campaign slogan...
NOTHING COMES TO MIND
"Kamala Harris, what exactly is your NEW WAY FORWARD??"
"NOTHING COMES TO MIND"
I am guessing that for anything TO come to mind... There would actually have to BE a mind to come to, eh??
Yes, there is simply NO WAY that Harris and Walz will win the election..
It is not within the realm of possibility...
OK, we're on the tail end, people..
I have TWO simple questions..
Simple question where the ONLY acceptable answers are YES and NO...
I will pose the questions and then I will predict everyone's answer.. :D
#1 Will President Trump win the election?? YES or NO
#2 When President Trump wins the election, will you people accept the results?? YES OR NO
First, CW.. He has stated NO to the first question. Which is disappointing, really... CW, I love ya, man, but that is not a reality based answer.. That is an answer driven by ideology and wishcasting…
As I have pointed out with supporting FACTS, it's an impossibility that Harris/Walz can win..
CW's likely answer to the 2nd question is going to be "It depends on the election itself."
Which is funny because that is the answer President Trump and JD Vance have given and were mercilessly castigated for it..
Ironic, eh?? :D
Caddy will say "Absolutely NOT" to #1 and will likely give a similar answer as CW's to #2.. Again, the irony is very VERY thick that both CW and Caddy will give the exact same answer as President Trump.. :D
JL will likely answer "Probably" to question #1.. Even though it's not a YES/NO answer I'll take it cuz I like JL... :D JL will likely join CW and Caddy with the #2 answer.. Again, irony of ironies they are ALL sounding like President Trump..
Kick will well... kick (punt) on both questions.. It's that immoral imperative of her's that refuses to get tied down to specifics that she will have to admit she is wrong on later.. So, no answers from Kick..
Russ??? Hmmmm I am guessing he will say NO to #1 and is likely to join JL, CW and Caddy with the same "It depends on the election" answer..
JUST like President Trump's answer. :D
Dan hasn't been around enough for me to predict his answer...
And I save the favorite for last.. :D
Liz will likely say YES to #1 and join all the others for the answer to #2...
Isn't it amazing that ya'all answer the exact same as President Trump!!?? :D
Does that cover everyone??
:D
JL,
I still have Donald up at the moment, but your completely unrealistic cheerleading is giving me hope that perhaps i'm wrong.
Many people said the same thing about Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980...
I was there and watched it happen.. I can tell you what happened next.. :D
Where were you??? :D
OH, and one final FACT before I sign off for the day..
YA'ALL claimed that Biden was completely competent and not only would he WIN the election, but he would ALSO be fine for another 4 years..
*I* said that Biden was too old and senile and wouldn't even FINISH the election..
Given the FACT that ya'all were completely and utterly full of felgercarp…. The question HAS to be asked..
What makes ya'all think ya'all have *ANY* credibility in the bank??
Seems like ALL the credibility is on MY SIDE of the equation, eh?? :D
Anyways, I'll probably check in around 1400ish and then I'll be at work and unavailable to rub ya'all's noses in it til approx. 0700-0800 tomorrow.. We might hit breakfast with all the other cops to celebrate President Trump's win... So it might be later as today is my Friday.. :D
But don't worry.. Since no one has seen fit to accept my offer of truce, the gloat-machine will be in high gear tomorrow.. :D
Oh... One more FACT and then really am going to sleep..
For the next week or two, CW is going to be commentating on all the facts as to why Harris and Walz lost the race..
There will be oodles and oodles of facts and data that CW will cite as to why Harris/Walz lost...
The funny thing will be that all of the facts and data that CW is going to cite will be the exact same facts and data that I have been putting out there since Biden fulfilled my "BIDEN WON'T EVEN FINISH THE RACE!!!" prediction..
I can picture it now..
"Here is the reason why Harris lost.. Blaaahh Blaaahhhh Blaahhh.."
-CW
"Yea, I pointed out those facts a month ago..."
-Michale
"And here are some more facts and data points that shows why Harris/Walz lost..."
-CW
"Yea... I mentioned that a few months back.. :D"
-Michale
It's going to be a lot of fun for me to have all the facts that I have been pointing out for the last few months being confirmed by the VERY Democrats who refused to even CONSIDER these facts as they were occurring. :D
OK.. Now I really gotz to get to bed..
Ni Ni all.. :D
in 1980 I was 5 years old. there are about a million differences between that election and this one.
if Donald wins, i can practically guarantee it won't be with more than 290 electoral votes. in the extremely unlikely event that Donald completely sweeps the swing states, he'll get 312. that's his ceiling, because that's how divided our country is.
if Kamala wins, she could realistically get 302. if we're going to be unrealistic and presume a best case scenario for her, the ceiling would be 319, or 325 if we're going to be insane and throw in Iowa.
my current prediction is 281-257, with PA as the linchpin.
JL,
in 1980 I was 5 years old. there are about a million differences between that election and this one.
Of course.. I am not saying that 2024 is going to be exactly the same as 1980, vote for vote..
While history seldom repeats itself... History has been known to, on MANY occasions, rhyme.
What I AM saying is that it's not going to be a razor thin win for President Trump. It's going to be a blow-out win for President Trump where it's going to be indisputable and it won't drag out for days or weeks, but rather we should know by this time tomorrow, if not sooner..
if Donald wins, i can practically guarantee it won't be with more than 290 electoral votes. in the extremely unlikely event that Donald completely sweeps the swing states, he'll get 312. that's his ceiling, because that's how divided our country is.
Once again, in 1980, pollsters made the same predictions.. Once again, those 1980 pollsters were WAY wrong..
Harris had just a bit over 100 days to enter the race, establish herself and generate a real campaign platform..
And she only accomplished ONE of those things..
if Kamala wins, she could realistically get 302. if we're going to be unrealistic and presume a best case scenario for her,
When one takes into account all the boneheaded moves she made....
ZERO Press Conferences..
NOT totally divorcing herself from Biden and his policies, which Americans by the tens of millions, hate...
Picking NO BALLZ WALZ!!???
Weak, softball interviews (sans a SINGLE interview on FoxNews) that she TOTALLY miffed..
Plus HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of other mistakes...
There is simply NO scenario where Harris wins that could be, in it's wildest dreamz, "realistic"..
You are doing what everyone else here in Weigantia is doing...
Cherry picking the facts that support your hopes while ignoring the PLETHORA of facts that would PROVE to you that it's going to be a blow-out win for President Trump, just like it was a blow-out win for St Ronald Reagan
the ceiling would be 319, or 325 if we're going to be insane and throw in Iowa.
Well, we DO agree on this. Caddy's claim of Harris taking Iowa is COMPLETELY insane and is only possible in the diseased mind of a suffer'er of an acute case of PTDS AKA Trump/America Hate Syndrome (T/AHS)
my current prediction is 281-257, with PA as the linchpin.
We agree that President Trump is going to win..
That's all that is important.. :D
END OF WATCH
Police Officer Enrique Martinez
Chicago Police Department, Illinois
End of Watch: Monday, November 4, 2024
And remind the few..
When ill of us they speak...
That we are all that stands between...
The monsters and the weak...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/13839e8d10b9303c8d9aee50576e15b15f4844be91d15073a21097a85b780c50.jpg
And so it begins...
http://mfccfl.us/SwingStates.jpg
:D
Ya'all just HAVE to realize that, when BLM starts voting for President Trump, the Democrats are in really REALLY big trouble.. :D
Black Lives Matter activist to vote for Donald Trump: 'I definitely would not be supporting Kamala Harris'
'For so long, we've just been blindly loyal to the Democrat Party – for no reason,' Mark Fisher, co-founder of Black Lives Matter Rhode Island, said
A Black Lives Matter activist on the eve of Election Day slammed Vice President Kamala Harris and said that he plans to vote for former President Trump.
"Kamala Harris would use anything to her advantage. I definitely would not be supporting Kamala Harris. If she ever got anywhere close to power, it would be a disaster for this country," said co-founder of Black Lives Matter [BLM] Rhode Island Mark Fisher in an interview with The New York Post published on Monday.
Fisher explained further to the New York Post that historically, the Democratic Party has been the party Black people overwhelmingly voted for, yet, never "got anything in return." He also cited "abysmal" poverty and crime and a "failing" education system in Black communities.
The "lifelong Democrat" voted for President Biden in 2020, a decision he "regrets."
A small segment of those millions and millions of black American voters that swung their allegiance to President Trump. :D
Only 40% of black Americans approve of Biden, Harris and their policies..
One of those other pesky inconvenient facts that PROVES that Harris simply CANNOT win...
Democrats are scared shitless over early voting.. :D
Journalist Mark Halperin says early voting numbers bad for Democrats..
With early voting turnout breaking records in key battleground states, a large number of Republican voters are showing up, potentially paving the way for a win by former President Donald Trump, according to veteran political journalist Mark Halperin.
Speaking on Tuesday's episode of the Morning Meeting podcast, Halperin discussed reports suggesting Republicans are outperforming Democrats in early voting, particularly in battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina.
"If the early vote numbers stay the way they are—and that's a big if—we'll almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win," Halperin said.
"Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can partially understand the data, we'll know Donald Trump is going to win on Election Day," he added.
Ya'all see the facts???
Harris/Walz simply has NO PATH to victory...
Muslim Americans are turning to President Trump by the MILLIONS...
Why??
Because of bonehead interviews like the one Harris gave to a muslim influencer..
HE wanted to talk about Gaza.. SHE went on and on about bacon.
BACON!!!??? A food that muslims cannot eat..
Harris campaign tells Muslim interviewer he can't ask about Gaza, she talks up bacon instead: 'Taken aback'
The Muslim influencer was reportedly told the Israel-Gaza war was off-limits in the interview
The interview was SO bad and SO utterly damning for Harris that the influencer just shit-canned the whole interview...
Kamala Harris’ interview with a Muslim social media influencer was never released after the vice president avoided discussing Gaza but surprisingly praised bacon—a food strictly prohibited in Islam.
Kareem Rahma, the host of the widely followed “Subway Takes” series on Instagram and TikTok, decided not to air his conversation with Harris, which was recorded over the summer, according to his comments to the New York Times.
Before the interview, Rahma intended to challenge Harris on her administration’s stance on Israel, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Gaza—a position he strongly opposes, as reported by the Times. However, despite multiple requests to address this topic during discussions with her team and the Democratic National Committee, he was denied.
Instead, Harris’ team agreed she would share a “hot take” on people removing their shoes on airplanes. The format of Rahma’s show involves guests, including notable figures, defending an unconventional opinion.
During the interview, however, Harris veered off-topic, declaring, “bacon is a spice.” This was an unexpected remark, especially since Rahma, like many practicing Muslims, avoids pork due to religious beliefs.
Simply another FACT that proves Harris is unelectable...
neither Islam nor Judaism cares if someone of a different religion eats bacon
if you're sure put your money where your mouth is. Donald gets less than 300 EV, you donate fifty dollars to the Israeli guide dogs.
Yes, Muslims don't care if others eat bacon. But when a Muslim wants to talk about Gaza and Harris wants to talk about bacon, which has NOTHING with Muslims. Don't ya think that's a little tone deaf??
As to the wager, yer on. And if I win, you donate $50 to CW...
26
Don’t hold your breath when Kamala wins. Cho’mo does not pay as agreed.
Not at all..
Yes, you moved the goalposts considerably. You made the statement, and I quote:
To which I replied, and I quote again:
You have an immoral imperative whereas you simply cannot admit when you are wrong.
You think you know me. *laughs*
To accomplish this you have a nasty habit of stating your claims whereas they are intentionally ambiguous, obtuse and equivocal and open to whatever interpretation serves your America Hate agenda.
There was nothing ambiguous about my statement, and I don't have an "America Hate" agenda. My claims are usually very unambiguous and only open to interpretation by people who have no concept of what simple words actually mean.
I am simply not going to allow you to get away with it this time.
Your confusion regarding simple word meanings is entirely under your control yet not entirely unexpected. If you're having trouble keeping up, I suggest you procure a dictionary.
I am going to demand that you state with complete clarity and unambiguously what exactly you are betting the million dollars on..
Since you are as admittedly confused as per your usual state of being, I have already posted the quote above. If any of those words are at all unclear to you, open that dictionary I suggested you procure and make good use of it.
Are you betting a million dollars that President Trump WILL win the Popular Vote, just not by a "considerable margin"??
I see you are confused as well as hysterical.
Or, are you betting a million dollars that President Trump won't win the Popular Vote at all??
You made the statement that Trump would win the popular vote by a "considerably margin," and I bet you a million that what you claimed would not happen. Then you attempted to amend the laughable claim by amending it to remove a word, proving beyond doubt that:
(1) You lack the courage of your convictions, and
(2) You are fully cognizant your claim is unadulterated bullshit.
Which is it?? Put up or shut up, baby... :D I really could use that million dollars.. :D
State the obvious; obtaining a good education can be expensive, and you are demonstrably in desperate need.
And, anticipating your equivocal, obtuse and ambiguous response, I won't NEED the million, depending on what you are actually betting.. :D
Oh, no. You definitely need the million. You actually can fix stupid, but it'll cost you considerable time and money.
*
That's not what I asked you, now is it..
Let's start your education now. You made a factual statement that I acknowledged something (something I've acknowledged previously). If that was meant to be a question, a person with even a smidgen of a brain/education would have followed it with a question mark (?) versus the period period (..) with which you punctuated it. You will note you punctuated your question I quoted directly above this comment in the same ignorant fashion.
What part of "along the lines of" is not clear to you, honey?? :D
I would ask what part of science and math is not clear to you, but I already know the answer. Nice use of the question mark, though; repetitive yet correct, and don't call me "honey."
It wasn't unclear. I'm telling you this ain't 1980, and science and math -- preexisting data and addition -- already precludes your prediction. That isn't possible in 2024... not even "along the lines of." No way. No how.
Why not quote MSNBC?? It would have as much credibility... :D
I quoted nothing. I posted a URL to support my claim... you should try it.