The Smallest House Majority In Over A Century
The 2024 election is finally over. Well... the election itself was over a month ago, of course, but the final results of that election have now been announced. Democrat Adam Gray has now officially beaten incumbent Republican John Duarte in California's 13th House district -- by only 187 votes (out of over 200,000 cast). Republicans, while retaining control of the chamber, actually saw their majority shrink in 2024.
Republicans won the 2022 midterm election with a House majority of 222-213. This meant (assuming everyone was present for the vote) that they could only lose four votes in order to pass strictly party-line bills. Losing five votes across the aisle would have put them at 217, which is one below a simple majority.
Now that the 2024 election is over, Republicans will have a smaller majority in the House of Representatives. On paper, it will be 220-215. Democrats flipped one more seat than Republicans did this election cycle, and earlier they had flipped a district in a special election after the ouster of George Santos. This all means Speaker Mike Johnson (assuming he retains his leadership job) will only be able to lose two votes on any strictly partisan measure.
But for the first few months, it'll be even worse than that for Johnson. Matt Gaetz has already resigned, even though he won re-election to his district. And there are two other GOP House members who will be leaving soon as well -- because Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz have been nominated for positions in the incoming administration of Donald Trump. Special elections won't be held to replace them for a few months after the new Congress is seated. Which will leave Johnson with only a 217-215 majority.
In the House, ties fail. There is no tie-breaking vote (as there is in the Senate). So Johnson won't be able to lose a single vote for the first two or three months of the year. This could dramatically limit what the incoming House is able to accomplish at the very start of the session.
In fact, according to Pew Research, Republicans will only have the second-smallest majority -- measured as a percentage of the full House -- in all of American history. And that's using the "on paper" 220-215 numbers. The only smaller majority was in the 65th Congress (which took place from 1917 to 1919), when the Democrats held an edge of only two seats. During that Congress, the split was 217-215, which is exactly what the effective split will be for the first few months of 2025. Johnson is going to start his next session with the smallest House majority ever, to put this another way.
The House session that will end in December has been one of the least-productive ever, in terms of legislation passed. It also included not just one but two epic battles for the speaker's chair. It started off with one of these, voting over and over again until Kevin McCarthy finally secured enough votes to win. Then more history was made when he was unceremoniously booted from his job in a sort of "no confidence" vote, which is when Mike Johnson began his leadership of the fractious GOP chamber.
Because the House Republicans had such a slender majority in the current House (made worse by the defenestration of Santos), a tiny bloc of them could effectively gum up the works. Which they did. Over and over again. Ousting their speaker was only the most dramatic of these, but on all sorts of things that both McCarthy and then Johnson attempted to achieve, all it took was a handful of Republicans to put the kibosh on the plan. Sometimes this was due to the radical extremists, and sometimes it was the moderates who rebelled, but in either case the end result was not getting much of anything done.
The only big things they did manage to accomplish (other than ousting their own speaker) came when they had to compromise with the Democratic Senate. Most of the big budget bills passed with lots of Democratic votes in the House -- which incensed plenty of House Republicans, but at least it kept the lights on (the government never actually shut down).
Of course, heading forward, the dynamic will be different. With Republican control of both the Senate and the White House, bills that the GOP House considers will not be meaningless "messaging" bills any more. Almost all the contentious things House Republicans fought over among themselves for the past two years were bills that were doomed to a quick death in the Democratic Senate. The radicals wanted to make them as extreme as possible (so they could campaign on being radicals), while the centrists wanted to make them a lot more reasonable (so they wouldn't be open to campaign attacks from Democratic opponents about how extremist Republicans were). But now these bills won't be just political posturing -- anything the House GOP passes might well actually become law.
This might make it even harder for Johnson to get anything done. His radical Republicans are going to be pushing for the most extreme things they can think up, while his moderates will know that they might not just face: "Congressman Smith tried to do [some horribly extremist thing]" ads in the next campaign, they will instead face ads stating: "Congressman Smith provided the key vote to make [some horribly extremist thing] actually happen." And for the first few months, it won't even take a bloc of Republicans -- any one member will be able to hold up any bill, single-handedly.
This will only last for a couple of months, though. Democrats have an outside chance of picking up one of the vacant districts in a special election, but it's a longshot at best. Johnson will likely have a full 220 members by April. But that's not a whole lot better -- he'll still only be able to lose two votes to pass partisan legislation.
There isn't always a full House (so to speak) for every vote, though. With 435 members, there are usually a handful who aren't present. Some are just unavailable for personal reasons (such as getting sick), and members can either resign their office or die. With that many of them, it's actually (and actuarially) pretty rare that they're all present for votes. If a couple of Democrats are absent, this will give Johnson some breathing room. But if a couple of his own members aren't there while the Democrats all are, Johnson may even have to delay votes until he's got a functional majority once again.
This may act as a brake on Trump's first 100 days in office, which is when presidents always try to get the most done. The two nominees for his administration could stick around in the House in January long enough to move some things through (Trump won't take office until the 20th, while the new House will start right after the new year), but once they're confirmed into their administration posts they will have to resign their House seats.
Whatever happens, the new makeup of the House's majority just goes to show that Republicans really didn't have any sort of "landslide" election cycle. Democrats actually improved their standing in the House, even though they fell short (by three seats) of winning back the majority. Once the special elections are held, Mike Johnson will have the second-smallest majority in the history of the House of Representatives. Until then, he will be working with the smallest-ever majority. Until those seats are filled in April, he won't even be able to lose a single member and still pass legislation. Which improves the chances of a continuation of the chaos Republicans have exhibited for the past two years in the House.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
This continues many commentaries I've been reading about the probable paralysis of the Republican-led House in the 2025-27 term. As one other commentator (ElectoralVote-dot-com) put it, every member of the Freedom Caucus has an effective veto on all proposed Republican legislation in the House.
But your comment, "This may act as a brake on Trump's first 100 days in office, which is when presidents always try to get the most done" threw me a little bit. Because just how much of Trump's 'platform' for his first 100 days is about passing laws? Working with Congress? Following constitutional procedures?
My impression of the plan for Trump's first 100 days, such as there is one in the public press, is all about executive action, proclamations, and so-called 'dictatorship'. I've never gotten the impression that Trump cares two hoots for how much the Congress might support him in his immediate efforts to gut the 'Deep State' and assert the power of the Executive branch to the sky's the limit.
What laws, as such, have the Republicans pledged to pass in the "first 100 days", such that a paralyzed House of Representatives might prevent that legislation from happening as promised in the recent campaign?
referring to today's GOP representatives as "radical Republicans" sends waves of sadness through me as a history teacher who every year discusses the advances of the "radical Republicans" of the Reconstruction era.
JMCT,
My impression of the plan for Trump's first 100 days, such as there is one in the public press, is all about executive action, proclamations, and so-called 'dictatorship'.
Isn't it ironic.. You just described Basement Biden's first 100 days as POTUS.. :D
And everyone knows how bad Biden's POTUS'ency has turned out.. :D
The fact is that EVERY ONE who is a patriotic American is behind President Trump..
It won't matter if the majority in the GOP House is 1 or is 100... President Trump's Make America Great agenda will be steamroll'ed thru...
Democrats have a simple choice.. Get on board or get run over... :D
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referring to today's GOP representatives as "radical Republicans" sends waves of sadness through me as a history teacher who every year discusses the advances of the "radical Republicans" of the Reconstruction era.
Do you mean after that Republicans face-slammed the racist Democrats into the ground, they got busy and fought racist Democrats to make American a better place??
Yea... Good times.. :D
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This could dramatically limit what the incoming House is able to accomplish at the very start of the session.
I know that's what Democrats are hoping for.. :D
Allow me to dash those hopes with facts..
Republicans are giddy with excitement of their Trifecta... :D
Whatever happens, the new makeup of the House's majority just goes to show that Republicans really didn't have any sort of "landslide" election cycle.
Whatever you have to tell yourself to make it thru your day.. :D
The mere fact that President ELECT Trump won the Popular Vote by a considerably great margin proves that "Landslide" is definitely the name for the 2024 election.. :D
Everyone is going to get on board with Making America Great Again.. :D
Which improves the chances of a continuation of the chaos Republicans have exhibited for the past two years in the House.
And there you have it.. Democrats HOPING for chaos for America.. :^/
I am happy to report that Democrats will be sorely disappointed in how GOOD things are going to get for America and Americans..
Simply getting rid of the criminal illegal immigrant scumbags will go a LONG way to making America great again.
As I told ya'all during the election season that culminated in the biggest Uber Nuclear Shellacking of Democrats in history...
Don't get your hopes up.. Stick a fork in the Democrat Party... It's done...
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JL,
You're looking at this through a political lens. I'm speaking historically. in 20 years no one will care who Donald's "enemies" were. and in 20 more beyond that no one will even remember. history has a way of changing a story and making it completely different from whatever people were saying at the time it happened.
I disagree..
We STILL remember Saint Ronald Reagan and what he did for American and it's over 40 years later.. Hell they just honored Teddy Roosevelt and his presidency was over 100 years ago..
President Trump has left and will leave an indelible mark on America that will be honored and appreciated for the next hundred years at least..
Hell, President Trump is going to be remembered and honored for what he has done and what he will do for Israel alone, for a long time to come..
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We STILL remember Saint Ronald Reagan and what he did for American
cases in point, nobody in 1988 thought Reagan was remotely a saint. Teddy Roosevelt became president by assassination, and his second bid for reelection was rejected twice, first in the GOP primary and then again as an independent in the general election.
people don't remember the reality, they remember the myth. Even bringing long lasting peace to the Middle East could probably not eclipse the legend of escaping nearly 100 felony charges by being reelected president.
legend of escaping nearly 100 felony charges by being reelected president.
That wasn't really legend-inducing..
When one considers the actual charges and the jurisprudencial hoops that Democrats had to jump thru to bring those charges.. THAT is what is going to be remembered..
Don't take my word for it.. Just listen to Basement Bidens own words on how nefarious his Department Of Justice acted..
Everything Basement Biden said about his DOJ as it pertains to Hunter ALSO pertains to President Trump's prosecution..
So, President Trump's "luck" won't make him a legend. The desperate acts of the Democrats to try and lawfare President Trump out of the election is what will be remembered..
Ya'all just HAVE to know that, even if President Trump had lost the election and those charges had been allowed to continue, NONE of them would have survived appeal.
Many of those charges were already on the way out before the election..
It's obvious to even the most dullard that those charges had ONE goal. And it was a goal that had NOTHING to do with justice and everything to do with dragging down President Trump's re-election campaign..
President Trump had both arms tied behind his back and was gagged and yet STILL won the election..
That should pretty much PROVE how bad a candidate Harris was that she would lose and lose so dramatically when she had EVERY possible advantage..
It either shows how BAD Harris was or how AWESOME President Trump is..
Ya'all take yer pick.. :D
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Interesting factoid..
In 2012, Odumbo won the election with 332 Electoral Votes..
53 of those EVs came from states that are not even in play anymore. FL, OH, and IA have gone GOP for 3 elections in a row..
That's not just a canary in a coal mine. That's a mass extinction of the entire canary population..
And yet, Democrats STILL cling to the fantasy, "Our message is fine.. If only our messaging was better..."
That just doesn't cut it anymore..
Democrats are all about labeling people and addressing them as a label instead of as a person.. As a voter..
"Blacks go here and we say 'blaa blaa' to them. Hispanics go here and we say 'wup wup wup' to them.
Asians go here and we say 'vrup, vrup, vrup' to them.."
Identity politics simply DOESN'T work any more...
Democrats STILL haven't gotten that memo...
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Trump is becoming a 1961-63 “New Frontier” JFK-like figure well beyond the drafting of RFK, Jr.: the reboot of space exploration, the shift from a can’t do to a can-do, get- moving-again national exuberance, the proposed tax cuts, strong defense, and deterrence, and a renewed hope that the era of racial demagoguery is passing, as taking the knee morphed to dancing to YMCA.
-Victor David Hanson
President Trump is the new JFK... :D
I like that... It fits!! :D
Let's hope that President Trump doesn't meet JFK's fate or, as President ELECT Trump told Hamas terrorists, "there will be hell to pay."
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Voters to Washington in 2024:
The Rise of Independents and
Decline of Democrats
An analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election
https://www.winstongroup.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Winston-Group-2024-Post-Election-Analysis.pdf
Key Points
For the first time since the Watergate era, independents surpassed one of the major political parties to rank second in terms of party identification.
In this presidential election, the percentage of the electorate that self identified as Democrats came in behind independents.
This extends a downward trend for Democrats that began in 2012, reaching a record low this year and makes a major difference for Republican prospects going forward.
Democrats need to make some MAJOR changes or they will never come out of the wilderness...
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For all the recent spin, post-election Kamala Harris is going nowhere but to a Dukakis-like retirement. She proved the worst Democratic candidate since the 1972 catastrophe of George McGovern (who was a sincere person, and a decorated WWII B-24 combat bomber pilot).
Wait a tic..
Didn't someone here make the Harris/Dukakis comparison?? :D
Iddn't AMAZING how dead on ballz accurate my predictions were?? :D
I told ya'all that Harris simply CANNOT win..
This was confirmed by Harris campaign officials after the election.
AT NO POINT in the election was Harris EVER REALLY ahead of President.. NEVER... NOT ONCE... was Harris EVER a threat to win the election..
Had ya'all listened back then, ya'all wouldn't have to be eating so much crow now, eh?? :D
I'm just sayin'... :D
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To put things in perspective for ya'all..
When you consider the number of self-identified Democrat voters in 2020 (37%) versus the number of self-identified Democrat voters in 2024 (31%) the fact is Democrats lost over 10,000,000 voters...
Most of them went over to Independents & NPAs (27% in 2020 vs 34% in 2024) with the rest going over to the GOP..
TEN MILLION VOTERS... That's how bad Democrats lost..
Do ya'all SERIOUSLY believe THAT is a MESSAGING problem??
Or do ya'all accept the reality that THAT many lost voters means it's a MESSAGE problem..???
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When one considers the actual charges and the jurisprudencial hoops that Democrats had to jump thru
when would anyone on earth ever remember the legal hurdles required to indict (and in 34 cases convict) the former and future president? does anyone even know what those hurdles were right now? if someone on the street couldn't tell you about it even when it's fresh in the public eye, they certainly won't consider it with years of hindsight. even the nerdiest of legal and political scholars probably won't know or care about fani willis, merrick garland, alvin bragg or jack smith, any more than they care about pat garett, robert ford or john gleeson.
donald did some stuff that was illegal - that's factual and on the record. he successfully convinced enough people that it was all false and politically motivated to neutralize the charges' impact, win the election, and therefore escape ever having to answer for any of it. that IS amazing. anyone who has looked at this presidential race since june has known what was probably coming, including lawyers and judges. whether you support him or oppose him, seeing it all come to fruition has been absolutely legendary.
JL
when would anyone on earth ever remember the legal hurdles required to indict (and in 34 cases convict) the former and future president? does anyone even know what those hurdles were right now?
Yep...
In the case of the 34 "felonies", Bragg had to pair the state misdemeanors where the statute of limitations had already expired to a FEDERAL felony that he couldn't even NAME, let alone prove..
That's just for the one case..
Many other hoops were creating new laws in NY to overcome a Statute Of Limitations hurdle, modifying existing laws etc etc..
donald did some stuff that was illegal - that's factual and on the record.
The "illegal" stuff that President Trump did was akin to jaywalking..
EVERY ONE does it but only those named Trump were persecuted for it..
As far as the Election "crimes" go, President Trump didn't do anything different than Al "Crazed Sex Poodle" Gore did in the 2020 election..
We know this because the lead of Gore's legal team TOLD us..
And on and on it goes..
The funny thing is, had Democrats left it all alone, they made have made the election a lot closer than it was.. Might have even squeeked out a win..
But they were so crazed with PTDS and Trump/America hate, they didn't think straight...
THAT is why the Democrat Party lost over 10,000,000 voters and got shellacked in the 2024 election..
"None of these facts are in dispute, Mr President!!"
-Klingon Ambassador, STAR TREK IV
And the stuff I typed in about the hoops Democrats had to jump thru is just stuff I remembered off the top of my head. If I had a hankering and really research it, I could go into real depth about how badly Democrats abused the legal system to bring President Trump down..
Democrats shredded the laws and shredded the Constitution in the throes of their PTDS and Trump/America hate..
Having said that, will anyone remember in 20 years??
Yes, I think people will.. If only as a cautionary tale of being hoisted by their own petard..
It's the ISHMAEL PARADOX... By taking Spock back into the past to change history, the Klingons brought about the very incident that they had went back in time to prevent..
So it is with Democrats.. Democorats brought about the very Uber Nuclear Shellacking they had been trying to prevent..
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@m,
as i've said before about the tax documents, that has happened in previous cases. i'm not saying it's right, but that's just the way the state of new york operates, and every juror knew it, which i think is one of the reasons they voted to convict; they knew that if it were they who'd done it they'd be treated exactly the same.
the other crimes donald was indicted for were a lot more serious. absconding with classified documents while no longer president, showing them to people without clearance, and refusing to return them when asked, pressuring state officials to manipulate vote counts, and refusing to send help when the capitol police were getting crushed by a mob armed with bear spray, stun-guns, baseball bats and flagpoles.
besides being illegal, these are really bad things to do. jaywalking, my arse. i don't dispute that a lot of people really are convinced that it's all a nothingburger cooked up by political opponents. but regardless of what the law or the courts or public opinion say, donald did actually do these things, and the evidence of it is incontrovertible.
JL
the other crimes donald was indicted for were a lot more serious. absconding with classified documents while no longer president, showing them to people without clearance, and refusing to return them when asked,
You mean, like Biden and Obama and Clinton did??
Biden didn't even have any legal RIGHT to HAVE those documents and yet he had them and showed them to people without clearance..
You have no ethical or legal leg to stand on with ANY of those "crimes" that President Trump is alleged to have committed..
and refusing to send help when the capitol police were getting crushed by a mob armed with bear spray, stun-guns, baseball bats and flagpoles.
Not factually accurate.. President Trump was going to send the National Guard in.. Pelosi stopped that..
besides being illegal, these are really bad things to do. jaywalking, my arse. i don't dispute that a lot of people really are convinced that it's all a nothingburger cooked up by political opponents. but regardless of what the law or the courts or public opinion say, donald did actually do these things, and the evidence of it is incontrovertible.
Not factually accurate.. There are simply NO REAL facts that proves ANY of it..
Which is why the legal cases against President Trump were falling apart even BEFORE his awesome Electoral & Popular Vote wins...
Each and every one of those cases would have fallen apart or been reversed on appeal..
THIS is documented FACT...
Not factually accurate.. President Trump was going to send the National Guard in.. Pelosi stopped that..
Total bullshit. The Speaker of the House does not have control of the National Guard.
Not factually accurate.. There are simply NO REAL facts that proves ANY of it..
Actually there is quite a bit that proves it...
Nope.. Just left wing propaganda like snopes and polit-"fact".
All you people EVER have is nothing but propaganda..
The ACTUAL facts prove that I am 100% factually accurate..
Remember all your claims that Harris would win and Biden was "sharp as a tack" and that BIDEN would win??
Remember all that??
Who was totally and 100% WRONG and who was dead on ballz accurate??
You can't win, Bashi... I have ALL the facts on my side..
And you have nothing but Left Wing Democrat Progressive propaganda...
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The Speaker of the House does not have control of the National Guard.
But the Speaker controls WHO is deployed to the House..
DUH....
Did you bump your head, Bashi??
You didn't used to be this stoopid... :eyeroll:
024
The ACTUAL facts prove that I am 100% factually accurate..
Then prove it! Link to the facts. Otherwise you are just talking out your ass.
And we get it, any journalist or news outlet disagrees with you is "left wing propaganda". The most half assed excuse to not backing up your argument I've ever heard.
Then prove it! Link to the facts.
You need a LINK to prove that Harris lost??
A LINK to prove that Basement Biden had to drop out??
That is EXACTLY your problem, Bashi..
You won't even believe the links..
You don't believe ANYTHING that violates your Democrat ideology..
Show me ONE TIME that you have EVER admitted when you were wrong..
You can't because it NEVER happens.
NO amount of links or facts will cause you to say, "Yep.. You were right.. I was wrong.."
So... Tell me...
Why should I even bother when we BOTH know you won't EVER concede anything..
025
You point me to where you EVER admitted you were wrong and I was right..
THEN I will provide you the links you requested...
026
You need a LINK to prove that Harris lost??
No, I need a link to prove you are not a dumb ass trying to dodge backing up the unrelated point.
You won't even believe the links..
Of course I will. How else will reading down 2/3rds in to the article prove your point wrong?
Of course I will.
You never have.. So why should I believe you..
*I* know the facts..
Since YOU will never accept the facts, where is my incentive in providing you shit you already know??
027
Dodging because you know you can't prove jack...
Dodging because you know you can't prove jack...
And yet, I have been RIGHT about everything and YOU have been wrong..
Funny how that is ALWAYS the case, eh? :D
028
What have I been wrong about? Specifically me, not the nebulous left...
You were wrong about Biden finishing the election..
You were wrong about Harris winning the election..
You have been WRONG about everything..
Oh wait.. Don't tell me.. Let me guess.. You never said anything about that one way or another.. :eyeroll:
Your BS is so predictable..
This is exactly why there is no use in discussing anything with you..
You never admit when you are wrong..
And you have been WRONG about everything for the last year..
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Who are the biggest suckers in America??
Democrats.. :D
They actually BELIEVED Basement Biden when he said that he would never pardon the First Druggie... :D
And Democrats were even BIGGER suckers by coronating Headboard Harris!!!
Headboard Harris went thru over 2.5 BILLION dollars between donations and the Harris PAC..
Democrats??? Good luck on your future fundraisers.. :D
Nate Silver put it perfectly..
"A senile and selfish old man."
Democrats won't be able to fund raise for dick for quite a while.. :D
030
Oh my god, that guy lied! Says the guy who voted for liar in chief who can't make it through a sentence without a couple of doussies. See Melania's jacket on how we feel about that...
there exists no police or national guard that the president can't call into action if he chooses to, and it strains credulity to somehow conclude otherwise, much less lay an explicitly executive responsibility at the feet of a legislator. lacking any real excuse, maga world invents them. the consequences are now moot, but the lies are no less fantastical for it.
same for the documents thing. every outgoing executive has a few accidental loose ends unattended, and gives back as much as possible as soon as they find out. Donald in contrast took fifteen boxes of classified documents with him on purpose, then lied about them, then flat out refused to return them. neither ridiculous false equivalency nor moot consequences change those facts. Donald is still the most famously successful outlaw in history.
that is, in the history of a Nation that LOVES successful outlaws.
Speaking of outlaws, it's been interesting reading the online reaction to the Brian Thompson murder. A lot of people rooting for the assassin to get away...
@bashi,
ha. they don't just want him to get away, they want him to murder more health insurance executives.